ground game and organization payoff? the assumption is always that trump has the most ardent supporters, but if they also assume that trump has it in the bag, will some decide to stay home? we have real insight on these questions, with real numbers from the gold standard in campaign polling. the person who always gets it right. so let s get right to her. joining us now is the pollster behind what s considered, again, the gold standard in polling in iowa, president and founder of company jay and seltzer. and it is good to have you. top line numbers, donald trump still leads by a historic margin. explain that, and explain the slippage that you are seeing? well his numbers surely are ones to be proud of. he s 48% of the first choice votes. but that s down from our december poll, which hadn t at 51%. and really, it s only a few percentage points, but they are symbolic down there. he was above 50%, and that is
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The case that donald Trump Wasnt Good at this. You know, he did not do a good job as president. And, i dont think its an accident that it looks like desantis at least, finally, has found at least his rhetorical footing. He did a much better job for instance, in that debate against nikki haley. Well look at iowa, for example, when you talk about how Donald Trump was for the state of iowa, for farmers in particular. He promised to make their state better, he promised to get money back for them. But the Trade War in china backfired to iowa. He had ended up doing a bailout for iowa farmers. Why have we not heard more of that from the candidates in the state of iowa . Well its a great question. Look, take the issue of immigration. I think they do a terrible job of hitting him on immigration. They could both be attacking biden and trump, over immigration. Look, the reason we have this problem now is because of trump s policies
loyalty, new hampshire voters are fiercely independent. exactly the kind of demographic nikki haley has so far excelled with. so, what sort of finished as she need in iowa to push her through new hampshire, and then beyond? and if he does well enough, what does ron desantis do? as of now, the florida governor said he s headed south, after iowa, away from new hampshire. joining us now from manchester is nbc news correspondent shaquille brewster. manchester new hampshire. shaq, what are you hearing from folks there? hi there katie. well you know, i m hearing something that is sometimes a little bit hard for new hampshire voters, and elected officials to admit. and it is, what happens in iowa will determine, will influence how voters here in new hampshire view these candidates, especially those candidates who are not named donald trump. would you continue to hear is that an over performance by nikki haley or ron desantis in iowa could help establish,
strong enthusiasm, it is a commanding position. and seltzer. and, thank you very much. and joining us now is nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki. so we got the broad overview, steve, of the polling. break the numbers down specifically, show us what you are seeing in this poll. yeah, i mean i m seeing what everybody just saw. we could just take you through the numbers, trump obviously with a big lead here, nikki haley in second at 20%. not much of a change from the last poll. trump here leading with evangelicals, obviously a very important part of the electorate in iowa. trump lost by double digits with him back in 2016, now he has an overwhelming advantage to see that as he has gone after this group considerably. haley has, as you were talking about this, she s got support now with independents. she was at 23 in her last poll, she s up to 33 here. but the bad news for haley, again talking about this conversation here, the favorable unfavorable numbers here fo