tied dead even 46.7% each. shane deapril is the editor of campaigns and elections magazine. has that 3-point lead for mitt romney in ohio in that one poll, if that holds, if it s accurate it is absolutely huge, isn t it? yeah, there is no doubt, jon. i think given the importance of ohio and its 18 electoral votes for mitt romney any positive polling news out of that state is good news for the romney campaign. i think under scoring that is the fact that ohio presents some challenges that perhaps other battle grounds don t necessarily present for mitt romney. the unemployment rate there about a full percentage point lower than the national average, certainly not good, but that changes the dynamics slightly and i think it makes perhaps some of the obama s campaign attacks a little more effective. such a critical battleground for mitt romney, no doubt good news for the campaign to see some of those numbers out of there. jon: when vice president biden
the votes and mitt romney with 46.7% of the votes. kyle conduct is a little end of analyst. it is the state where you live in virginia. what is virginia leaning towards this time? i think it is basically a total tie this time. one thing that is interesting is that in virginia in 2008, obama got 52.9%. nationally he got 52.6. that was the state closest to the national average. you figure that obama will probably do a little bit worse this time if he wins. that s why it could be the key state in the selection. jon: one of the quandaries for republicans is in that some of the these states that have republican governors like ohio and virginia, they have managed some things that have helped the unemployment situation or seems to. that is a net benefit, perhaps
and, florida. obviously, those three states are critical to the any victory, either side. and we think we can win all three of those and win those three states plus ohio and, wisconsin and, missouri, which we won last time and we have over 270 electoral votes and they ve got to basically take something out of the mix and take north carolina, florida, ohio, out of the mix and it is hard to get to 270 but i think, we are well positioned at this point. bill: this is a battle ground state and a lot of folks before 2008 would not consider it that way. look at the other battleground states now and look how close the polling numbers are. this is iowa, obama, 45, romney, 44.8. colorado, obama, 47.6, romney, 46. ohio, obama, 46.6, romney, 45.2. virginia, obama, 47.3, romney, 46.7. they are all within the margin of error, ed? every, single one of these states is competitive and every,
april 27th through the 10th of may. it has obama at 46.7% and also romney at 45.4%. the rasmussen tracking poll is really interesting. it has romney at 50%, obama at 43%. romney up by seven points there. what do you guys read into this? the way i see it, the polls are polls, but they re not the electoral college vote, and if you look at 2008 with obama, in 23 of the 28 states that he ran in, he got more of a percentage of vote in those states than he did in the national vote get. so in looking at that, you ve got to look at the electoral college where he is strong among swing states and those states is where it counts, virginia, ohio, pennsylvania, all where he now has leads, and that s where the campaign is going to come down. david is absolutely right. this is going to come down to
obama could take georgia with just 25% of the white vote. that s a stunning number. nevada with 35%, florida with just under 40% and arizona with 46.7% of the white vote president obama would carry. so the ad he released today was dull, lacked some energy, but did most of his talking with who was on the ad rather than what they said, and it was chock-full of young voters, a young black activist, a latino woman in arizona. they hit the swing states, so they get it. obviously they ll make a concerted effort to get those demographic numbers. with me is ron brown steed editorial director of and msnbc analyst pat buchanan. great to have both of you here. ron, those percentage of white voters is so tiny, georgia, i can t believe that s all he needs. he can t get 25% in georgia?