ultimately, of course, it will hit russia hard but vladimir putin knows it s going to take some time to really see europe making an actualfinal decision on what it s going to do and really turn its back on russian oil and gas. let s talk about what s going on on the battlefield at the moment. the ukrainian defence ministry were saying in the last two or three hours that russia is really stepping up the tempo of its offensive here, some 50 air strikes, they say, yesterday alone. what would you read into that, because there s a lot of talk about the victory day parade on the 9th may in russia, when president putin wants to present good news from the battlefield to his people. that s the may 9th parade that commemorates russia s victory over nazi germany in the second world war. i think there are two things going on here. after a pretty bungled attempt at an invasion
this is all still part of the special military operation, but there is talk that president putin will officially declare it a war. if president putin, maybe using the parade on 9th may, declares this a war, then the russian legal position changes. so, for example, he can keep the conscripts that are currently serving whose time is about up. he can keep them in and he can mobilise more reserves, more resources and more of russian industry. and what it would indicate is that this is now a long war, it s not a special military operation. it s something that president putin will cast as an existential fight for russia to protect all russian speaking peoples. there was an unexpected visitor to ukraine yesterday. hollywood actress and un special envoy angelina jolie arrived in lviv. she met people who have been caught up in this conflict and others too young to fully appreciate its true horrors.
this is all still part of a special military operation, but there is talk that president putin will officially declare it a war. if president putin, maybe using the parade on 9th may, declares this a war, then the russian legal position changes. so, for example, he can keep the conscripts that are currently serving whose time is about up. he can keep them in and he can mobilise more reserves, more resources and more of russian industry. and what it would indicate is that this is now a long war, it s not a special military operation. it s something that president putin will cast as an existential fight for russia to protect all russian speaking peoples. there was an unexpected visitor to ukraine yesterday. hollywood actress and un special envoy angelina jolie arrived in lviv. she met people who have been caught up in this conflict and others too young to fully appreciate its true horrors.
have to end in compromise won t it? how far, briefly, would vladimir putin compromise? what would he settle for, in particular looking ahead to may 9th and that victory parade sell praying which celebrates the deefeet of the nazis in the second world war. brute the deefeet of the nazis in the second world war. the deefeet of the nazis in the second world war. ~ ,, ., , , second world war. we know. it seems the we don t second world war. we know. it seems the we don t know. second world war. we know. it seems the we don t know. theth second world war. we know. it seems the we don t know. theth it - second world war. we know. it seems the we don t know. theth it seems| the we don t know. theth it seems the we don t know. theth it seems the russians haven t moved position. we will see the importance of 9th may, whether he will use that to increase mobilisation in russia to bring in more soldier, so we don t know when the 9th may will end up a de escalation but we wi
but the signs, as you point out, do seem to be at the intensification has already begun. there is a school of thought that says vladimir putin wants to take the donbas region by 9th may. it is a significant day in russia. it is when russians commemorate the anniversary of the second world war soviet victory over nazi germany. the thinking goes, having presided over an invasion which hasn t got really to plan at first, vladimir putin could save face by telling russians on that day that he scored another historic win, as he would frame it, by having taken some territory in eastern ukraine. lots of questions around that. first of all, can he do it? does his military have the capability to take and then hold significant amounts of territory there. and then the second question, is that the end of the war? will that be enough foeradimir putin? or will it embolden him to try and have another crack to take