i m not saying that we will definitely avoid a recession, but i think there is a path that keeps the labor market strong and brings inflation down. and here is a quick check of the markets now as concerns about the economy simmer, markets looking open to mixed, dow down, s&p 500 is down and nasdaq up as you can see there in the green. but there is good news at the gas pump, aaa reports prices are continuing their steady decline, for now averaging about $4.36 a gallon, that s down from nearly $5 a month ago. okay. still to come, there are growing concerns over the deal to export ukraine s grain after a missile strike at the odesa port. cnn s ivan watson is live in ukraine with the details. reporter: that s right, christina. i will have an update on russia s ongoing blockade of ukrainian ports and the latest
recession has essentially always followed when inflation has been high and unemployment has been low. soft landings represent a kind of triumph of hope over experience, i think we re very unlikely to see one. to be clear forecasting recessions is tricky stuff, but one thing, the data might not point to it until several months after the fact. in fact, you really don t know you are in a recession until you re basically out of it. and as yellen points out, the labor market remains strong. the jobless rate just 3.6%. how cuff a recession with such a strong jobs market? and there are signs that inflation may be peaking, gas prices still falling, now down to $4.36 a gallon this morning, a sign potentially that inflation could be easing. we will get more insight on friday when the fed s favorite measure on inflation is released, the pce index.
not always successfully so. again, rana, it is incredibly complicated. we re coming out of the covid pandemic. there are global factors on this t . a lot of data says, oh, that s great, and others say, oh, that s terrible. the price of gas, something the american commuter deals with every day. a year ago, $3.16. $4.91 a month ago. now down to $4.36. it is good for the consumer and the americanpolitics. but milk up 16%. coffee up 16%. shelter up nearly 6%. it is what are we going to learn this week? what are the american people going to learn this week from all the new data points we re going to get about tomorrow, next week, and next month? yeah. well, i hope they would learn two things. one, these are not trends that are the fault really of this white house. these are trends that have been building for some time.
of pete buttigieg s electric cars, the model thing you would be paying a lot more. how about bedroom furniture? you took advantage of memorial day sale on a mattress. year ago versus today it was 500 bucks a year ago. this year, 550. will: got at it, remember, i went to the store. i need a new president stress. i m going to get one. pete: 10% more. getting after it like we could have a year ago. will: turn on the lights, make a cup of coffee, what is that coffee? up 1% over year ago. $9.36 for a bag ever beans. pete: last year would have been eight bucks. you go to the stove, i don t know where we live here, we live in some swank kitchen in maybe california looks like. probably more expensive in california even than it is here. increase in breakfast sausage, related products like eggs, it is up to $2.28, up from two bucks last year. every portion of what you re doing, you go through this get after it morning is so
roughly one half hours from now, the president and the rest of the countries might get a better idea of where things stand with inflation. we re going to get the latest consumer price index numbers, expected to show prices jumping more than 8% compared to a year ago and price are still climbing from the last month. one factor in all of this, gas prices. this money, the natural average at $4.65 a gallon. that is down about $0.36 from mid-june. the white authority trying to spin this latest report before its its release is out of date. a top official riding the june cpi data were largely not reflect a substantial decline in gas prices we ve seen since the middle of june. cpi data captures the average price over the course of a month. the latest polling shows voters are not thrilled with the high gas prices or the president s performance of her. a new york times poll shows 64% of potential democratic voters want to see someone other than a nominee in 2024. last night, the president him