we will talk live with her about how she plans to keep her campaign afloat. we will see how attending sunday services in iowa could be as important as any campaign stop for the presidential candidate. in a state where one's faith speaks volumes "early" this morning, january 2nd, 2012. captioning funded by cbs and good morning, everyone. i'm bob schieffer. >> and i'm norah o'donnell. >> and here we are in the beautiful law library out here in des moines, iowa, we're out here for the iowa caucuses. norah, i must say i knew that cbs was coming up with a new morning show. i didn't realize it was us! >> we are just a temporary fill-in here in des moines. >> is there a cooking segment? >> i don't think there is a cooking segment today. maybe some porkchops on a stick or something like that. but i think it's all politics today, bob. you and me and politics. >> great to have you. >> and we will be here this week and the new cbs "this morning" starts in the nex week. we will talk about the iowa caucus and all of that. we start this morning by hearing from mitt romney, the former massachusetts governor sat down with chief political correspondent jan crawford last& night. in davenport.s this morning out- good morning, jan. >> well, good morning, bob. you know, romney spent the day greeting big crowds of enthusiastic supporters. we sat down with him after another packed event in council bluffs and asked about the polls that have him out in front and also hi spextatioexpectations i >> i've seen polls in the past. i think i'm getting a real strong send off. i'm pretty encouraged. i don't know if i'll come in first, second, third but i think i'll get a big boost coming out of eye was. >> reporter: throughout, romney has held steady. now he is facesing a surge by rick santorum who is gaining votes with evangelical voters like mike huckabee in 2008. are you concerned that rick santorum might do a last-minute surge and how do you stop rick santorum's surge? >> i'm happy rick santorum endorsed me in the last campaign. he has worked hard in iowa. i wouldn't be surprised to see him do weell. i think over the long haul, new hampshire, florida, nevada i'll get the support i need and get the nomination. >> reporter: one former front-runner newt gingrich has fallen in the polls and complaining about the negative ads against him but sunday he couldn't resist some negativity himself. >> i feel romney boated. >> reporter: what is your response to that? >> i congratulate him. i understand he raised some $10 million this last quarter and we are also working hard to raise the money that it takes to run an effective campaign. i wish him well and i think this campaign has not been decided by money. i think, so far, been driven by issues. >> reporter: now, of course, in the poll released over the weekend more good news for romney. beyond the rankings show him out front. most surveyed think he is the most electable and one to bring about real change but this statistic in the poll, bob. 41% of those likely iowa voters say they still haven't made up their minds and could change their mind up up until tuesday night so anything could happen here. bob? >> thank you very much, jan. very interesting. what was it newt gingrich was talking about? he got romney boat? >> he is comparing it to the swift boating ads saying he was romney boated, romney, especially in the super pact ran millions of dollars of ads. since that stopped happening the rising in the polls stopped and went the other way. the bottom fell out of the ray for him. other candidates have been running negative ads against newt gingrich too and all that added up to gingrich's decline. he is not expected to finish well here and the polls show him in fourth, possibly fifth. so he is not very happy about it. the other interesting thing. gingrich went up because of the debates, right? there hasn't been a debate in two weeks and no stage for him to make the case to the american people on. >> a great point. jan crawford, good to see you. thank you so much. we turn to the latest on rick santorum who seems to be having his moment in the sun here in iowa. dean reynolds is following the pennsylvania senator. he joins us now with the latest. good morning. >> good morning, norah. >> reporter: rick santorum seems to be peaking at the right time and is trying to maximize his position now in the last few hours. in his campaign swings now, rick santorum is asking voters not to compromise their beliefs. >> don't put forth with somebody who isn't good enough to do what is necessary to change this country. >> reporter: santorum is feeling good enough about his chances tomorrow to venture a kind of prediction. >> our feeling was from the very beginning, if we can pace ahead of perry and/or bachmann that we would be in good shape and we're moving in that direction. >> reporter: if you believe the polls, he certainly is. but the polling also shows that only 7% think the former pennsylvania senator is most lectable. he is, after all, a former senator because he lost his last race for re-election in 2006 by 18 points. and while social conservatives form the base of his support, they are projected to account for only a third of caucus goers tomorrow. four years ago, when mike huckabee won here, evangelicals made 60% of the vote. when he has a chance he takes on the mantle of a physical conservative. >> we have an explosion of spending. the problem in this government is government oppression, spending leading to huge debts and deficits. >> reporter: he can sound like a foreign policy hawk on iran's nuclear program. >> you open up the facilities and dismantle them and make them available to inspectors or degrade the facilities through air strikes. >> reporter: elsewhere, bachmann and perry prayed while newt gingrich spoke for many in this up and down field. >> i can't imagine being threatened by rick santorum. >> reporter: but in this race, the once unimaginable tends to be happening again and again. bob, norah? >> in the studio, it's not really a studio. a law library at the state capital, michele bachmann who won the iowa straw poll way back this summer. i want to ask you, miss bachmann, about kind of an interesting statistic that is in the poll that "the des moines register" ran yesterday. it said in 2008, 60% of the vote out here was evangelical christian but they are projecting this time it will only be 30%. now, those are your people. and i'm wondering, where did they go? i don't understand how this poll, how they figured this out, but that's what the poll reports. >> it seems very odd. it could be that people self-identify differently than they did before. it's hard to say. i don' think you've seen a tremendous change in the electorate from '08 until this year. i think it's fairly stable because iowa isn't necessarily a transitory state. i was born and raised here. in iowa, you're born here, you live here, you die here. >> you don't suppose they have become democrats or something? >> i don't think so! i don't think. no, because if you look at the party registration, the iowa republican party, they have had a massive shift of increase in demonstration and the democrat party has actually seen the decrease. i don't think that is it either. who knows. i don't know. >> congresswoman, let me ask you. you won the iowa straw poll. it was a big victory for you. now you're at the bottom of the polls and could finish in last place. what has happened to your campaign? >> well, what we have been doing is exactly what we needed to do. we just completed a 99-count tour and no other candidate has done anything that ambitious after the last debate. they have literally seen thousands of people slip in the last couple of weeks on the ground and iowa is different. iowans tomorrow night will come out into people's homes and at localities where they will actually stand or sit or fill out a sheet of paper or raise their hand. >> you think the des moines register poll which has been correct in the past is totally pwrong? >> about half the people still remain undecided. i think what we are going to see is people will be making their decisions on the ground and we saw, like i said, thousands of people change and a lot of it has to do with the threats that are coming from national security. i'm the only candidate with current national security experience. i sat on the house intelligence committee. with all of the saber rattling going on in iran, and the last debate, i took ron paul to task. his foreign policy is very dangerous. he says he has no problem with iran obtaining a nuclear weapon. now finding out reports where ron is saying they have a nuclear fuel rod. this is going to be one of the largest issues of this campaign. >> i had that written down. that is what i wanted to ask you about. >> okay. >> this news from iran. what do you make of that and let's say president michele bachmann had to deal with that. what would you do here? >> what i would do is something very different than what president obama has done. i would engage with the current dissidence that we have in iran, but immediate ily i would sent our patriot missiles systems, our ballistic missile systems need to be deployed not only here in the united states but in the middle east region. we also need to announce a policy with israel and we will begin a policy of selling them the bunker buster bombs they need and fueling tankers and jet fighters they need. president obama but united states and the israel and left the 22 hostile neighbors surrounding -- >> are you talking about putting out missile systems on alert here? >> sure, put them on alert. >> what level? >> what we need to do is look at a function of potentially a blockade as well of support in near iran and have our missile systems capable and ready to deliver. we need to send a very strong signal that the united states is on high alert and we will do whatever it takes. >> do you envision telling israel maybe you better go ahead and just bomb them? >> it wouldn't be for the united states to tell israel to do that. what we need to do is take a very aggressive posture toward letting iran know that we mean business, that we don't want them to seek a nuclear weapon. if this, in fact, true what iran has announced they have a nuclear fuel rod this could mean potentially within a year, that they will have a nuclear weapon and they just demonstrated with their test launch, a missile delivery system that they have he capacity to have delivery of a nuclear weapon. this is very serious. >> finally, congresswoman, do you have the money and organization to continue after iowa even if you place poorly? >> we bought our tickets to go to south carolina so we're going on! we will be on the plane to head to south carolina. >> well, does that mean you're skipping new hampshire? >> we will go to new hampshire, too. be there for the debate. there are two debates this weekend on saturday and sunday. we will be there. >> we have to wrap. thank you so much, >> nice to see you. >> here is terrell brown at the news desk in new york with a first check of today's headlines. >> the murder of a park ranger triggered a massive manhunt at mt. ranier national park. the park this morning, is closed. benjamin colton barnes is described as an iraq war veteran and suspected of shooting four people at a party yesterday morning police believe he is stranded and armed in the woods. park ranger margaret anderson was shot and killed when she tried to stop the gunman and started when the gunman ran through a checkpoint. four new fires broke out this morning in los angeles. there were no injuries. police have released the grainy surveillance video of a possible suspect and spotted a man perhaps in his 20s with a to tonyhail and receding hairline. the fire department says the person of interest has been detained in more still head this morning. from the gingrich sag to the surge. we will get more from the political field from john dickerson. >> this is "the early show" on cbs. when you need money, you shouldn't just get it fast, you should also get it for free. that's why at h&r block... you could get money that's both fast and free on an emerald card. just bring in your tax information and get a refund anticipation check... in 7-14 days, for up to $9,999. you pay nothing out of pocket. hurry. this offer ends february 4th. why pay for fast money when you can get it for free? 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(man) register today for the... and receive $25 off your registration fee. because everyone deserves a lifetime. welcome back to the special edition of "the early show" from iowa. i'm here with bob schieffer and now joined by our political director john dickerson. good morning. >> good morning. >> this mystery to me, where did the evangelical christians go. we see in the des moines register poll and i asked michele bachmann about them if she thought they might have become democrats and she said she was sure that was not the case. in 2008, 60% of the turnout here was the evangelical christian vote. the register poll is now projecting that -- the poll now only 30% of the vote this time will be evangelical christian. where are they? what happened? >> here is the speculation so far. which is in 2008, mike huckabee was a special case. he was an evangelical christian and spoke and lived the life that these evangelical christians lived so they came out from all corners. he appealed to homeschoolers a whole cast of people who hadn't been involved in the caucus before. what happened on caucus night the republicans involved in the caucuses before said who are these people who are here? they were all of the huckabee voters. he grew the number of voters out there and a lot of them aren't coming out because they don't have one candidate. rick santorum is having his surge but the limit on the surge is whether people feel about him the way they felt about huckabee and a lot of evidence they are not showing up. one last thing is that the polster who did the des moines register poll measured what it would be like if evangelicals turned out like huckabee, santorum would win. >> mike huckabee was a minister. he was a reverend. >> exactly right. he had the executive experience so people could say he is one of us and he has the other piece which is the executive experience. >> john, do you think this is -- mitt romney is going to win this because iowans love him or is he going to win it because the social and fiscal conservatives are split between santorum, bachmann and perhaps ron paul and everybody else? >> i think it's the latter. likely a split of that other vote and romney maybe comes out top or bunched out at the top ian he'll be able to claim a victory because santorum and paul are lesser challenges for him. one interesting thing in that poll. clearly, there has been a problem for romney in iowa. he has been about 22%, to 24% across the boards for months. 78% of the people in this poll say they would be okay with mitt romney being the nominee. so they don't necessarily have him as their first choice but they don't have a terrible feeling if he becomes the nominee. >> that's kind of significant, because was that the way it was in the beginning? when 78% say they like him or he would be okay? >> well, yeah, yeah. they, obviously, are not rushing come out of iowa with a little bit more enthusiasm than that. they feel better about him than the last time around. there is still this group. evangelicals and conservatives distrustful of mitt romney. again, they have gotten a little better feeling about him and another key number for him is this electability question. 48% say they he can beat barack obama. the other challenger newt gingrich at only 13%. republicans want to beat barack obama and on that key question, romney does very, very well. >> john, thank you so much. >> the question between hearts and minds for people. still ahead, we know there is a separation of church and state in this country, but the line gets a bit blurred here in iowa when it comes to politics. we will be right back. ♪ i am you ♪ you are me i'm jennifer hudson, and i believe. i was strong before weight watchers, but i'm stronger with it. i believe weight watchers can do the same for you. i believe you have more power than you think you do. i believe because it works. ♪ if you want it, you got it your turn. your time. your year. join for free. weight watchers points plus 2012. because it works. you bet. wow. man: do your simple return with the turbotax federal free edition, and now get our free, one-on-one, expert tax advice, live by phone or chat. get the federal free edition, at turbotax.com. can boldly satisfy any craving. share an appetizer, then choose two chili's entrees, like our classic bacon burger or our famous slow-smoked baby back ribs. chili's $20 dinner for two. mid grade dark roast forest fresh full tank brain freeze cake donettes rolling hot dogs bag of ice anti-freeze wash and dry diesel self-serve fix a flat jumper cables 5% cashback right now, get 5% cashback at gas stations. it pays to discover. ♪ that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm [ male announcer ] for half the calories -- plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8. is non-stop to seattle? 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(man) register today for the... and receive $25 off your registration fee, because everyone deserves a lifetime. ♪ welcome back to this special edition of "the early show" from des moines, iowa. i'm bob schieffer. >> it's good to be with you bob. i'm norah o'donnell. >> we are going to talk about the day ahead in the iowa caucuses. the first time we will facially hear from the gop voters. we are going to bring in reince priebus, the chairman of the republican national committee. we are almost there. >> you bet. >> are you really? okay. i got to ask you, and we have a terrible feedback problem here so we may get a little confused here. i'm hearing myself about three seconds after i say something but that doesn't make any difference. i don't pay any attention to myself anyway. mr. chairman, let me ask you this. we're getting down to the wire here. do you think this early primary season has been good or bad for your party? >> bob, i think it's been great for our party. you know, i've always believed that big primaries with a lot of buzz and, you know, even a little bit of drama, i think that's all very good for us. i think you see it in the history. if you really want to talk about what history shows in this country, it's that big primaries. even tough primaries. they are great for the opposition party. it was great for hillary clinton and barack obama. they went to war for months and months and, you know, he won pretty easily. took a super majority of the house and 60 votes in the senate with him. i think they work and i think it's been great. >> well, let me ask you this. how do you account for the fact that, first, it's one, then another, who goes to the top of the polls and then seems to be down as quickly as they go up? mitt romney, of course, has been in there about 20% to 25% from the start of all this, but the rest of them, each has kind of had his moment in the sun and quickly kind of swept under the rug, as it were. why do you think that has happened? >> i think it's -- i think it's -- number one, i don't think it's atypical but i think more commonplace in today's media cycle. i think candidates are real to people and i think our folks on this side of the aisle are taking this election very, very seriously. they are very concerned about the future of america and a president who hasn't delivered on a darn thing. but they are very engaged. it's personal. places like iowa and new hampshire, i think, really the voters there get to know these candidates and i think that now, more than ever, people in this country believe that this election is the most important election of their lifetime. i think we've got a president that is more intent on turning us into a country from europe as opposed to the very -- the idea of america and where we are going. and i think that is the reason you're seeing this incredible engagement and what our side of the aisle is engaging in right now. >> the other side of that, might be out here the more they seem to know about them, the less they seem to like them one-on-one. first, one guy shoots to the top and then he goes down and then another and he goes down. mitt romney, of course, has stayed right in there at about 20% to 25%. but you have to wonder, is he ever going to go up? because really it's going to take more than 25%, i would think, to do well in the general election. what do you think he has to do and why do you think that he has stayed at 20% to 25%? >> well, i think that you've got one primary here which we're just really grateful that this whole race is getting started here tomorrow. you've got one primary, bob, that it's just one and there is going to be 50 of them. we have a race of 1,200 delegates and it's a process that i think is going to be full of interesting stories to talk about. but at the end of the day, what is exciting for us is that barack obama has hit his own ceiling. you want to talk about ceilings. i mean, most americans in this country believe that he is totally failed in his promises. 70% of the american people believe that america is on the wrong track and that 60% of those people believe that barack obama has failed on the most important issues facing america which is jobs in the economy. if you want to talk about what ceilings really matter here is that americans are ready to fire barack obama and they are taking seriously in states like iowa and new hampshire right now who is going to be the person to be the next president of the united states. that's why you're seeing -- >> mr. chairman -- >> all this analysis. >> -- i take your point and unfortunately the clock has run right out on us. we will be right back. >> this is "the early show" on cbs. we all have internal plumbing. but for some of us with overactive bladder, our pipes just don't work as well as they should. sometimes, i worry my pipes might leak. but i learned there's something more i can do. now, i take care with vesicare. once-daily vesicare can help control your bladder muscle and is proven to treat overactive bladder with symptoms of frequent urges and leaks day and night. if you have certain stomach or glaucoma problems, or trouble emptying your bladder, do not take vesicare. vesicare may cause allergic reactions that may be serious. if you experience swelling of the face, lips, throat or tongue, stop taking vesicare and get emergency help. tell your doctor right away if you have severe abdominal pain, or become constipated for three or more days. vesicare may cause blurred vision, so use caution while driving or doing unsafe tasks. common side effects are dry mouth, constipation, and indigestion. so why wait ? 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[ male announcer ] get back on track with low prices on everything you need. backed by our ad match guarantee. walmart. ♪ you are watching a special edition of "the early show" from des moines, iowa, as we get ready for the big caucuses tomorrow. >> it's fun to be here in iowa, hasn't it? >> it's always fun to come to iowa. nicest people in the world, without question. i've been coming out here a long time. my first iowa caucus was 1976 when jimmy carter came out of iowa and the big question was jimmy who? nobody had ever heard of the guy but he won the iowa caucuses and went on to win the presidency. >> and he began that tradition of the real retail politicking. >> my only problem with the iowa caucuses that i think they would be better held in the summertime. >> hey, we're lucky. no snow this time, right? >> absolutely. it's almost balmy out here. here is terrell brown at the news desk with a check of today's other headlines for us. los angeles fire department says a person of interest has been detained in connection with an arson spree. 12 suspicious fires broke out this morning. that brings to 55. the number of suspicious fires that have been set since last week. most of the targets were parked cars. authorities have been looking for a possible sk suspect a man perhaps in his 20s with a ponytail and veeding hairline. throughout the nice police are search mt. ranier park for the murder of a park ranger. the park has now been shut down. our seattle station kiro reports. >> reporter: this is benjamin barnes, the sheriff's office showed us these pictures. they wanted us to see who they are faced with. >> you have this guy high powered automatic weapons and already shot multiple people and killed a law enforcement officer. >> reporter: they say barnes has military training and heavily armed and believe to have come to mt. ranier to hide out after a shooting at a house party. investigators say he was driving this blue sedan and blew through a traffic check. park ranger margaret ands son set up a blowedblock. >> came out and put multiple rounds inside her car. >> reporter: when officers rushed to help anderson, they ay barnes fired at them. a gun battle ensued and barnes then escaped into the forest on foot. law enforcement are using infrared and following his trail in the fresh snow. they are also using an airplane with heat sensing technology to try to pinpoint barnes on the mountain and they tell me they won't stop looking until they find him. at mt. ranier national park, alison grandee for cbs news. winter is ready to slam through the northeast and midwest today. kalamazoo, michigan, preparing for a winter storm. a warning in effects for the area. as much as 10 and up next, why so many politicians make it a point to attend sunday church services here in iowa. >> that's right. faith and politics here in the hawkeye state when "the early show" continues. ♪ honey? yeah? you didn't refill the cottonelle. i wouldn't forget something that important. it's right there. what about the back-up plan? you used the back-up. but didn't back up the back-up. errr... you're right...yeah. when toilet paper is this nice... you back it up. that's right. back it up. back it up. back it up. back it up. back it up. back it up. back it up. 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[ male announcer ] yes, it is. when did you start that project? every new year comes with a few stories waiting to be built. it's when our brand-new to-do lists become "you did that yourself?" so when we can save more on the projects that let us build, make, and even store more, well, that just makes the stories even better. more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. make room for savings with these sterilite totes for a new lower price of just $5.88. we have been talking this morning about the importance of the evangelical christian vote out here in iowa. it probably plays a bigger role than anyplace else, religion, i guess with the possible exception of utah, obviously, being a mormon is a pliolitical plus but it's a big deal out here. >> our "the early show" contributor karen winter brill takes a look at the role that religion plays in this state. good morning. >> reporter: nearly all of the candidates come through here have tried to identify with the christian values of this large block of evangelical voters in iowa and while many will rarely speak sunday at a church service their mere presence alone within the congregation speaks volumes. ♪ >> reporter: heading to sunday services in iowa is often as typical as anywhere else across the country with the exception of the politicians who come to worship. in the weeks leading up to the caucuses, republican candidates have been aggressively hitting what many in iowa call the church circuit as they vie for the evangelical vote who make up nearly 38% of likely caucus goers. >> it's great. a small church like this, he's from the big state of texas, even to come to our church. >> reporter: while rick perry prayed alongside this congregation in clear lake, michele bachmann was showing up for a service about 80 miles southwest at the harvest baptist church church. >> i'm not ashamed of my faith and my husband and i try to take our children to church every sunday but we are not at home now. we are here campaigning in iowa. >> reporter: what might be misconstrued in mixing religion and politics in other states is how republican politics is played in iowa. i couldn't help but notice the big slogan on the side of your bus. how big of a role does faith play in your campaign here in iowa? >> it plays a very important role in my life, so that's what i'm about. >> evangelical christians are a makeup of a strong group of iowa republicans and when you talk about caucus goers, which is a subset of republicans, it's a very large group. a candidate has to talk about their faith and the importance of faith. >> thank you, sir. >> i think a person's faith is legitimate, but if they overemphasize it, i think people sense that, but i think they want a sincere expression of their faith and setting an example of what that faith means to that individual. >> i think it's important for our country to be based as our founding fathers did on principles that are very clearly cemented in the christian values. >> reporter: in this part of the country, is it important that you see candidates attending church service? >> oh, definitely. >> we would like to get a man of faith in there, yes. >> reporter: clear lake senior past pastor dan jordan welcomed perry to worship. >> when the opportunity came about, we knew that it would be unique and special, but we also didn't want to -- we didn't want him to be the spectacle and the attention of the day. >> reporter: but with no speeches required at this campaign stop, simply showing up to pray is all of the spectacle you'll need. >> another beautiful day. >> reporter: how was your service? >> did a good job. good singing. >> reporter: how was the congregation? >> it was good. they were very supportive. >> reporter: keep in mind, mike huckabee won the republican caucuses here in 2008. you might remember, he was a former preacher who was a very big hit with christian conservatives. norah? >> no doubt, karen winter brill, good to see you. still ahead he is known as the most influential conservative voice in iowa but he is yet to endorse anybody. >> we will ask him this morning. congressman steve king of the tea party caucus, who is he going to endorse? we will talk about it on "the early show." that's why there's crest pro-health clinical gum protection. it helps eliminate plaque at the gum line, helping prevent gingivitis. it's even clinically proven to help reverse it in just 4 weeks. crest pro-health clinical gum protection. and i swear by it. 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>> i have not made that decision. >> it's getting a little bit late! >> hours rather than days. when i first stepped into this, we made -- set up a plan, january 6th of last year, almost a year ago, on how to go forward on this to accelerate the caucus process. we held a celebration here in march in des moines and successful and went to new hampshire and joined jennifer horn there and jim demint and i. we went on to south carolina. i thought by september or october i would have reached a conviction and i've not reached that conviction this morning. >> why? >> let me ask you. bob and i were talking about this. you have the governor of the state terry branstad have not decided and you haven't decided and chuck grassry who is influential here has not decided. why not commit to mitt romney? he is at the top of the polls. >> i think we like all of these candidates and that is part of. . rick santorum has worked this state so hard and i believe he will be rewarded tomorrow night for that work. michele bachmann is a very close friend. we agree across the board on approach. there is more that i would do that she hasn't endorsed but we agree on across the board on what she does endorse. then if we look at rick perry, he brings -- comes as an executive from a state perspective. i would say the one place where i do disagree is even though i congratulate ron paul for all that he has done for sound money, constitutionalism, fiscal responsibility and his foreign policy concerns me a lot. >> do you think that in the end, he might run as a third-party candidate? there is talk of that. >> he's never said no to that. he's talked around the subject. he's been point blank a number of times but he has never said no to that. i am concerned about that too. if we have -- he would be a very strong libertarian candidate. if that's the case, i think that barack obama would be delighted at such a move and i would hope that ron paul, i know he understands that. >> why is it that -- i mean, i know michele bachmann is not just a close personal friend of yours, but you really are ideological soul mates. >> pretty much. >> many thought you would go ahead and go with her. is the fact you think she can't be elected or doesn't have the elect ability that romney or some of the others have? >> tom can ktancredo is a close friend. i didn't endorse him and we are close friends today. i have not made a final decision on that. in her case and everybody's case it's not pick the best person who is president of the united states and set them in the oval office. it's select the candidates or encourage them to run and put them through the crucible of this process. it's a gauntlet to run for president and the intense part of the gauntlet is here in iowa and it shapes the presidents. they develop themselves. it's a fund-raising public persona and a stamina race. do you have the stamina to do all of this? >> are you going to endorse eventually or maybe not? >> at this point, i will say this. there is a maybe not there. each hour that goes by, the prospects get to be less and less. this would be the optimum time if a person was going to do so, but this morning or somewhere else. i'm not prepared to do that. i was hopeful i'd wake up this morning with a conviction. what i do have, some strong convictions. i want to appeal obama care and 100% appeal of obama care. if out of iowa we can lock that in that is a big accomplishment. i'm not satisfied that any of the candidates have convinced iowans or americans yet that they understand the depth of the economic crisis that we're in, how we fix that problem, what the pieces that we can put in place, when we pay off the first net dollar on our national debt and then the other component is the picture for the destiny of america. ronald reagan painted it and i'm not hearing it hear yet. >> congressman steve king, thanks so much. let's turn to terrell brown. he's at the news desk in new york with a check of the day's top headlines. a person of interest is in police custody this morning in los angeles in connection with that arson spree. the man is being questioned for dozens much suspicious fires since last thursday. police may have gotten a big lead from a grainy surveillance video with a possible suspect with a ponytail and receding hairline. 12 more suspicious fires set this morning in los angeles and brings 55 the number of arson fires and most of the targets were unoccupied cars although some carports and garages and apartments attached to garages were damaged. there were no reported injuries. armed gunman is still on the loose in washington's mt. ranier national park. the park is closed as law enforcement officers search for an iraq war veteran and he is also suspected in the murder of a park ranger. rick price of kiro of seattle has the latest. >> reporter: the hunt for the gunman has continued overnight. meanwhile, police now tell us they have been able to get out dozens of people who were trapped for hours at the visitors center. check this out. after midnight, groups of between 5 and 10 cars came under armed escort. some of these folks told us they heard shots around 10:30 or 11:00 a.m. and didn't know much later until a suspect had killed park ranger margaret anderson. they realized how serious the situation was. they are 150 federal, state, and county officers involved in the manhunt. for today, at least, the park is closed while the search goes on. in ashford, washington, rick price for cbs news. pasadena, california, the sight of the 122nd annual rose parade one day later usual. it was moved to today because new year's day was on a sunday. the extra security is in response to the expected demonstration by anti-wall street protesters who are planning to follow the parade with a march of their own. several hundred activists are expected to turn and up next, we are going to speak with the highly popular and long time republican governor of iowa. we are going to ask him whether he is considering endorsing any of these candidates. >> that's right. his name is terry branstad and he joins us next when "the early show" continues. ♪ could open a world of wonder ? 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[ major nutrition ] ensure. nutrition in charge! it has been said that an endorsement from five-term iowa republican governor terry branstad could be a game-changer for a republican presidential contender, but, so far, only he knows who his favorite is. >> that's right. governor branstad joins us now. governor, good to see you. >> great to be here. thank you for being in the state capital, our beautiful law library. we are glad to have you here today. >> we are waiting on wins and needles. >> yes. >> who are you for? >> well, you know, i've tried to be a good host and welcome all of the candidates. we appreciate the time, the energy, the effort, all of the volunteers and all of the money they are spending in iowa and so i think the voters should decide that. i've never thought that endorsements were worth a lot and, consequently, i am going to keep my vote secret, but i want to do all i can to try to unite the republicans because we just cannot afford four more years of obama, because he's increased the national debt a trillion dollars every year that he has been president. he attacks the very people we need to invest to create jobs, the entrepreneurs and business people. i think the voters should choose the one think they is the strongest. there are a lot of candidates and making the choice not is not easy. >> norah was saying a while ago, it's not just you haven't endorsed anybody. chuck grassley, the senator out here, hasn't endorsed anybody. steve king, very close to michele bachmann there in washington. >> right. >> he still hasn't endorsed anybody. why? i mean, are you afraid that mitt romney is going to win and maybe he is not all that popular out here? >> no, not at all. i think we appreciate the fact that mitt romney got the message that he needs to come to iowa and active campaign and he certainly is doing that now. very aggressively. i think it's going to be a very close race. but what we want to do is make sure we nominate the strongest candidate because we just cannot afford to continue the direction we are going. america is going in the wrong direction. we don't want to be the next europe mired in debt without the opportunities that the free enterprise system has granted us throughout our nation's history. >> you mentioned that mitt romney has not spent much time in this state compared to other candidates, but he sure has been a lot of his money in this state and his friends and supporters, his super pact has spent $4 million attacking newt gingrich. newt gingrich said last night, he feels not that he has been swift boated but he feels romney boated and that romney would try to buy an election if he could. do you agree with that? >> ron paul has had the most effective negative ads against newt gingrich. basically, when you become a front-runner, romney has had his share of attacks too. yet, that is part of the process. you have to go through that. i had the most in your situation last year. the democrat association mass ka raiding and claim be to be groups of iowas for responsible government and spend $750,000 of attacking me and saying i wasn't conservative enough knowing i was the strongest candidate. my mother warned me about it. she wanted me to be an engineer and into this business. >> it's interesting, governor. everybody said, it's just how it is today. why doesn't somebody change it? why do you stand for letting this kind of thing go on, these kind of ads? now you've got this new bunch of stuff. >> well, the united states supreme court has said people have a right to do this. it's a part of free speech. like the occupy movement coming in and taking over and, you know, disrupting events. we don't like that, but it's part of our system. >> my mother used to say something doesn't have to be illegal to be wrong. why don't you stand up and say we're not going to do this any more. i don't care what the supreme court says. >> chris christie has said it probably as effective as anybody. i think he's had a good way of handling these kind of things. but we have to live by the rule of law and we need to do the best we can with the circumstances we have. we have the greatest country in the world. but our future is in jeopardy if we don't have new leadership, i believe. >> i'm glad we have all brought up our mothers in this interview! a strong influence on all of our lives. governor branstad, as always, good to see you. thank you so much. we will be back in iowa since this is a battleground state certainly. thank you so much. up next, we will talk about the beautiful iowa farmland here because guess what? a lot of it is selling at record high prices these days, which is a bright spot in our economy. >> why then are the citizens of this state, a lot of them, still struggling economically? we will talk to some farmers and some business owners when "the early show" continues. in ♪ ♪ oh, yeah ♪ 'cause i believe in you and me ♪ ♪ oh, boy ♪ i believe in miracles ♪ and i believe in you and me ♪ ♪ see, i was lost ♪ now i'm free ♪ 'cause i believe in you and me ♪ i thought i was invincible. i'm on an aspirin regimen now because i never want to feel that helplessness again. [ male announcer ] be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. talk to your doctor, and take care of what you have to take care of. most of the country's corn and soy bean crops are grown here in iowa. if you've seen the prices for either lately, you know there's a lot of money being made. >> of course, that has been driving the price of farmland through the roof. "the early show" contributor karen winter brill is here with a look at those record prices which is good for iowans. good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning. ever since the real estate bubble burst in 2007 on average the value of u.s. land has been on the decline. however, conversely here in iowa, the value of farmland is higher than ever. we caught up with one real estate agent who recently sold the most expensive plot of land in iowa state history. how much can you sell this property for? >> $20,000 an acre. >> reporter: real estate agent and auctioneer pete is having a banner year. >> business is booming, yes. right after we get done with this i have another sale to write up up. >> reporter: as hunger for iowa and corn, beans and alfalfa at record highs farmers breaking the bank to get their hand on as much land as possible. >> this is the most expensive property i have ever sold in iowa. >> reporter: the price of iowa farmland set a record last year, up 32% compared to 2010 which was also a record year. the increase, according to economist tom root, can be attributed to two key factors. >> the physician is the high commodity prices and fueled by demand for prices. the prices in the crops fueled a lot by the developing world. also although interest rates. >> reporter: with farmland selling at an all-time high, it appears as though iowa is experiencing an economic boom. but with unemployment numbers still nearly double what they were before the economic downturn, businesses on main street continue to feel the pinch. >> we noticed a shift in business in 2008 and then we have just been kind of struggling to make end's meet since then. >> reporter: while jennifer schaffer struggles to keep her store open business is better down the street at a candy shop but rising prices forced her to make tough decisions. >> i raised chocolate but only because my chocolate price went up so i had to raise prices on candy and probably raising bakery prices the first of the year, because the bakery ingredients have gone up and i haven't raised my prices for bakery ingredients since probably since years. >> reporter: according to j. ann selzer that left so many out of work in iowa remains the number one issue amongst caucus goers. >> people are most concerned about the economy and it plays out in terms of concerns about government spending and getting the deficit under control, creating jobs, dealing with the tax code. it's financial issues that are dominating caucus goers agenda this year. >> reporter: economist root also points out that high priced farmland in the hawkeye state hasn't had a fruitful history. >> we had 30% increase in farm prices in iowa in the late 1970s. one of the big worries people have now is that we saw a decline in the early '80s and had a huge crisis in the '80s. part of the reason was the bubble in farmland prices had occurred in the late '70s. >> reporter: bubble or not, for is hot or is a ths they say in n iowa -- >> you make hay in the sunshine. >> reporter: the sun is shining brightly on iowa farmland. if you're curious how much land was sold in that huge transaction. 75 acres and $20,000 an acre and shy of $1.5 million. so a pretty penny indeed. >> no doubt. i was talking to an iowa farmer last night and she was talking about just that, record prices, but land prices, of course, up and cutting into her family's profits. what has it done in terms of jobs? has it meant more jobs for people in iowa? >> reporter: it's an interesting question. we spoke to one economist saying an interesting tradeoff going on. all of the farmers gobbling up the land that means less room to develop manufacturing facilities, retail stores, set up housing developments. in terms of job creation, it's doing very little. norah? >> thank you. they can make money on wind farms here, it's so windy out there. thank you for braving the cold for us. president obama is the focus of republican attacks in iowa, of course, but he won this state in 2008. and, ahead, we will talk about his plans to do it this year, his plan. >> that's right. this is "the early show" on cbs. your local news is next. alright everybody, get your heads up. now when i was in the military, i learned that if you stand together, you can stand up to anything! no matter where i was deployed, i always knew that somebody had my back! you boys are your own band of brothers! you have each other! just like i had navy federal credit union... 24/7... live customer support! let's go! let's go! 3 1/2 million members. 3 1/2 million stories. navy federal credit union. ♪ and welcome back to "the early show." i'm bob schieffer in des moines. actually, i'm bob schieffer in washington too, but we are coming to you from iowa. >> and i'm norah o'donnell. >> i've waited for years to use that line! >>ware having a good time and probably too good of a time here together at the iowa stak. coming up we will take a look at the best and worst political ads in this campaign so far. that's right, you have to watch more of them. some of them have been effective and changed the race in this state and particularly the ones that attacked newt gingrich and remember that herman cain ad? he got so ad about that ad that showed him smoking in that ad. you showed a rebuke to herman cain on that one. >> we did kind of a difference of an opinion on the meaning of what that was. first, back to iowa here. the gop race but, norah, this is very, very interesting. i didn't know this until yesterday. the candidate -- the reason i know is because you told me! >> a good way to learn things. >> the candidate who has more offices and more people out here than anybody on the republican side is none other than? >> barack obama. the president. >> barack obama.& he likes to remind people that iowa voted democratic in the last general election and he is hoping that the same thing will happen this november and joining us, well, tell us about her. >> former president's case here is his former communications director jenn psaki. you were involved in iowa last time when the democrats and barack obama got a ticket out of here. he beat john edwards and, of course, hillary clinton and that sort of gave him some of the momentum to go on and win the democratic nomination. but i have to ask you about we certainly heard from the president's campaign officials that you have more campaign offices than the republicans, that you've made more voter-to-voter contact, that this is all important. and, yet, we have seen in this state, republican registration has grown. iowa is a state in the general election that barack obama will have to win. and the numbers are not so great for president obama here. what has happened? >> first of all, it's great to be back in iowa. i was reflecting last night on the plane all of the great memories from four years ago when the president began his historic campaign here as y referenced. i will say this campaign is about a choice and the president, right now, is not only continuing his conversation with the people of iowa. tomorrow morning, he will be live streaming to caucuses in the state and he is ready to have a conversation and a debate who has the better vision for moving the country forward, the better vision for the economic security of the middle class. and right now, we're not ending our campaign tomorrow evening as many of the republicans will be opinion we will still be here on wednesday. this is just a step in the process and we are really looking forward to having that debate when there is a nominee from the republican side. >> let me ask you the question i hear from a lot of democrats and, frankly, they are disappointed. they i think the president should have done more. what happened to this presidency? it got off such a great feeling of hope and then, all of a sudden, it was, well, it's not as bad as it could have been. it could have been worse. >> well, bob, i think the worst economic crisis in a generation is what happened. and i hope everybody takes a moment to re-read the president's speech he gave when he won the iowa caucuses four years ago. because he made a promise to the people of iowa and the american people that he would fight for affordable health care and middle class tax cut and end the war in iraq and he has done but the journey is not over yet. the job isn't done. and i think what you'll hear him talking about is that over the next coming months and the next year, and hopefully, the next five years, what he is going to do to continue to get this country back on track. >> do you think, on reflection, it's always easy in hindsight. the rearview mirror is a great screw. do you think he would attack the economic problems first and then go to health care? >> well, that's exactly what he did. he attacked the economic problems. he passed the stimulus package that put millions of people back to work. he continued on that path. >> but, i mean, unemployment is higher now than it was then. >> the economic crisis was far worse than anyone thought. it's something that we have all been dealing with. there is nothing more he would like to do today. next week, the week after, than continue to pass pieces of the american jobs act so that we can continue on the path to recovery. and he is not going to give up hope of that over the next couple of months. even while republicans running fail to talk about what they are going to do for middle class families. >> jenn psaki, good to see you here in iowa. >> good to see you too. >> we head back to terrell brown. he is at the news desk in new york with other headlines. a missile test for iran. during military exercises iran fired a long-range missile that could hit israel or u.s. bases. yesterday, it tested a media-range missile designed to evade radar. trial of mubarak continues in egypt. policemen charged with killing the protesters were acquitted last week. about 100 birds were mysteriously killed in arkansas. according to police, new year's eve revelers shot at a net of black birds. last new year's eve thousands of birds were killed. there have been no arrests. three children hospitalized this morning in utah after a dramatic rescue. the family's car traveling on an icy road in salt lake city this weekend slid into the icy waters of the logan river. nearly a dozen people helped pull them occupy. kids' father say they are out of one man with some unique insight into tomorrow's caucuses in iowa is "time" magazine's joe klein. joe, always great to have someone here older than me. >> i'm not older than you! >> even someone my age need someone they can look up to. you have to be to more iowa caucuses than i have and it's a pleasure to have you. >> it's great to be back. especially for this very weird one. >> it is the weirdest of all all, isn't it? >> it's like the republican party caught malaria and the candidates get hot and fevered and then cool off and have chills. it's up and down fever chart for all of them, except for mitt romney who just putters along at 20, 25%. >> go ahead. >> why doesn't anybody have a fever for mitt romney? >> because, you know, there are three reasons that i found. one is that his record in massachusetts, they don't like the fact that he passed universal health care there. number two, this is something really a surprisinly amount people think of him as a rich guy. they don't think he understands their lives. the third, which you don't hear very much but is very much part of the picture is that he is a mormon and a certain number of evangelical christians who will not vote for him but they don't want to talk about it. >> you've heard that from voters here? >> yes. >> they brought up those particular things? >> yeah. the most surprising one is that he is a rich guy and you see a lot of anti-wall street sentiment, especially from tea party sorts, and the tea party sorts are the ones who have been most affected in this race. they are the ones who are jumping from candidate to candidate to candidate trying to find a home. >> we have been talking about this all morning, and that is this projection that the -- that's in the "des moines register" poll when you get down into the deep weeds of that poll, it says 60% of the vote in 2008 was evangelical christian. this time, they are projecting only 30%. i asked michele bachmann i said, well what happened? did they all become democrats or go away? john dickerson says it's that mike huckabee brought out more of those folks than normal. what do you think that is all about? >> i think it's partially that, but, also, there are a lot of independents who pick one side or the other and this time, you only have one side. and a lot of those independents are going to ron paul which brings down the number of evangelical voters here. but, you know, the interesting thing is that this place is supposed to winnow out candidates and it may not do that to anybody. the thing that the political pros have been talking about here the last few days isn't iowa at all, it's south carolina, where people think that the anti-romney will emerge. you know, you'll get rick perry going there. even though he probably is not going to do so well here. newt gingrich has been ahead in the polls there. santorum surging here will always be there. those three guys will be contesting, you know, who is going to be the anti-romney. i assume michele bachmann will go back to her day job. >> let's talk about the future because i think that is important. assuming mitt romney can squeak out a victory here in iowa, does that give him the momentum to try to wrap this up early, or does the conventional wisdom still hold? that he has to fight for this for a while? >> yeah, i think he is going to have to fight for it, in part, because the rules have changed. it's not winner take all any more. he could win every primary between now and the republican convention and still find himself in a death fight in the convention if you have two candidates. ron paul comes in with 10% of the vote he could be the king maker. >> you know, coming out on a plane last night, i'm now an expert. coming out to the plane last night, republican consultant aid to me, he's not even su south carolina counts. he says if romney wins out here and then goes on to win in new hampshire, that whoever the -- anybody but romney candidate is in south carolina won't really matter, it will all be decided in florida. >> that could be true. or it could be super tuesday a month later. because there is no winner take all, you know, this thing changes. we're in completely uncharterd waters. this is weird. this isn't in the dna of the republican party to have this sort of indecisiveness. and you see them and you hear them on talk radio kind of pushing toward romney, but they have a long way to go. >> yep. joe, thank you very much. i'm glad to know somebody is as confused about all of this as i am. >> i'm not confused! >> it's nobody knows, right? >> bob, it's not confusion, it's humility! >> there you go. thank you, joe. campaign ads have been playing a big role in american politics for more than two centuries now. but these days, they have a special kind of power. >> someone with proven executive leadership willing to make tough choices on government spending. >> after he left congress, freddie mac paid gingrich at least did 1.6 million dollars. >> i have never supported the president's recovery act, rt all right? the stimulus. no time, nowhere, no how. i think there is need for economic stimulus. >> all right. now joining us to analyze which ads have been working this campaign so far and which have not been is gop polster frank luntz, president and ceo of "luntz global." good morning to you, frank. boy, we know some of the ads have been successful here in iowa because newt gingrich, who, of course, was riding high in the polls, has had a spectacular crash in the last couple of weeks. i want us to talk about one of the first ones, ron paul. even governor branstad talked about this. let's listen to it and then talk about it. >> newt gingrich on the defense taking $1.5 million. >> after he left congress, freddie mac paid gingrich at least $1.6 million. >> some of it just before the housing market collapsed. >> that is the voice of our own jan crawford in there. what do the dials mean and why was that ad successful? >> we test all of these ads on the second by second basis. they use a remote control and turn it up and down based on whether they are influenced or not. that is one of the most powerful because it shows gingrich at his worst. makes him a washington insider which is exactly what republicans don't want. i don't necessarily agree with joe klein about the wealth of the candidate hurting mitt romney. what these voters are looking for is consistency and predictability which is why gingrich got hurt in the ad and mitt romney was attacked by the obama campaign and he got hurt to consistency. >> you talk about mitt romney being attacked for consistency. the dnc, democratic national committee, they don't have to spend money and put it up online and all of the free media which is people like us pick up that ad and show it like we are about to right now and gets into the conversation. let's watch part of that. >> i have never supported the president's recovery act. all right? the stimulus. no time. nowhere. no how. i think there is need for economic stimulus. >> you're only allowed a certain number of flips before people begin to doubt your character. >> and that was a devastating ad because they said, of course, it was two men trapped in one body, right? >> it made people laugh which is a key to negative advertising. it can't make you angry at the people who ran it. you want to make it angry at the candidate. romney has also been attacking barack obama and that is one of the reasons why he is actually done so well nationwide. he has gone ahead of gingrich in most surveys is because he is trying to bring the campaign to the democrats which is the second thing that caucus voters want, someone who can beat barack obama. >> you seem to be keying up all of these ads perfectly. because that is exactly right. you talk about sort of romney. romney has had this strategy. he has sort of not spending too much time against the other republican candidates but trying to early on focus his message on obama. here is another clip from his ad. >> i'm an american. >> i'm an american p.m. >> an american. >> i'm an american. >> i'm an american. >> not a bump in the road. >> what is that ad about? >> it's trying to use the voices of people and one of the hardest things in the campaign right now is credibility. nobody trusts anything from anyone. and so you've got to use real people, real voices, real opinions. the language of some of the ads have not worked because it's come across as manufactured. if you feel like you came in a television studio, if someone put it together just slapped it, it's not going to be effective. you got to have an authentic genuine message. >> so who is going to win? >> in this case, i agree with all of you. yes. i'm not afraid to make predictions. this time, no way. could be any one of three candidates. we don't know who is coming in fourth and fifth. i don't remember any time like this. mike huckabee had a three-point lead but clear he was surging. santorum is still back and back in 2008, barack obama also was leading in the last poll. no one is leading this time. >> frank, when you first find out you have breast cancer, you feel like you're in a nightmare. when i was diagnosed, i felt very out of control and a victim of the disease. 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[ female announcer ] people who choose more whole grain tend to weigh less than those who don't... multigrain cheerios has five whole grains and 110 lightly sweetened calories per serving... more grains. less you! multigrain cheerios. ♪ i would guess that if they gave than award for the amount of miles driven by a reporter, scott conroy of real clear politics just might win it for his coverage of iowa. >> that's right. he is here with us now for an up close look certainly at what he has seen on the ground. what is on the mind of iowa voters ahead of tomorrow's caucuses? good morning, scott. thanks for stopping by here. what are you sensing in mitt romney is slightly ahead in the polls and santorum surge. could santorum win? >> even iowans who don't support rick santorum you got a sense they wanted the guy to do well. he has been working harder than anyone else by far. i think that if iowans go to the polls and want to somebody to stop mitt romney it could be mike san torpum. he is peaking at the right time and the best alternative. >> what about sarah palin? those of you who don't know -- i mean, i just got to ask this, you know? scott was the cbs news reporter who was with sarah palin for so long, and you wrote a book about it "sarah from alaska." suddenly, everybody was talking sarah palin was running this time around. all of a sudden, she just wasn't there any more. >> it's strange. i know that she actually did seriously think about it. she was having meetings with her top aides in arizona where she has a second home now. from what i'm told she just concluded in the end, in her view, the system, as she put it, was sort of rigged against her. she didn't think that she had a real shot in the end. of course, we barely have heard from her the last couple of months. she is doing occasional fox news but not been out here in iowa getting behind a candidate. >> you don't under any circumstances expect somehow she would reemerge here down the line? >> it would take a shocking emergence for that to happen. the die-harder are here are hoping but i don't see any of that. >> we talked about the ups and downs in the polls. mitt romney has been late to the game here in iowa. they are trying to squeak out a victory here. the other day on the campaign trail, he was asked about the dream act which is something that would allow children of illegal immigrants that graduate from high school in order to get citizenship. he said he would retow that as president. mike huckabee supported the dream act. looking long term, what does this mean for the republican nominee with their tough talk on immigration and particularly the dream act? what does it mean for the hispanic vote. >> i got a chance to sit down with mitt romney a couple of days ago and tried to press him on this and however the republican nominee is going to get the hispanic voters. i saw a poll a couple of weeks ago showed romney losing to obama by 40% among hispanics. i tried to press him how are you going to change perspectives? states like florida and colorado and crucial elections. he reverted the talking point it seems to me. we're not worried about polls right now. hispanic voters care about the same issues that nonhispanic voters care about. it seems he hasn't thought it out and i think that is a huge issue as you're eluding to, in the general. >> do you have any idea in your own mind how this thing is going to come out here? i can't figure out what is going to happen. >> i can make something up and come up with a prediction. >> i think iowa is important because it is first, but i'm not sure we are going to know any more who is going to get the republican nomination by the end of this week than we do right now. >> i will say things have worked out sort of beyond the wildest dreams of the romney campaign. i'm pretty sure the last few months they never had a strategy session in boston how do we beat rick santorum and ron paul in iowa. that's probably not something coming up in his meeting. he's in pretty good shape. if he is third, that's a little tougher because then you can make the case he made a final wush the last couple of weeks here and finished in third place. >> scott conroy, great to have you. thanks for being with us. >> thank you. have a great day, everyone. your local news is next. 3q um, miss ? you have hard water stains and that cleaner's not gonna cut it. you need lime-a-way. it's 4 times more effective at removing limescale than the leading bathroom cleaner. lime-a-way is specially formulated to conquer hard water stains. for lime, calcium and rust... lime-a-way is a must.

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