Transcripts For WCBS Face The Nation 20160131

I can do whatever you want, but almost anything. I dont i dont dance and i dont sing. One company did sing. This land is your land, this land is my land dickerson we will sit down with republican front runner donald trump, plus the candidates some say have the hot hand going into the voting, marco rubio, we will also have lots of political analysis on both races. With just monday to go before voting in iowa and New Hampshire a week away, no time to duck out. Call donald trump and try to get him to do the debate. Dickerson it is all coming up on face the captioning sponsored by cbs nation. Good morning and welcome to face the nation. I am john dickerson. The final precaucus numbers are in. And according to the Bloomberg Politics des moines is up over Bernie Sanders, 45 to 32 percent among likely Democratic Caucus goers, on the other side, donald trump is on top with 28 percent support, ted cruz is next at 23, marco rubio is at 15, ben carson at 10 percent support, the rest of the field is in single digits. We caught up with donald trump on the campaign trail in New Hampshire earlier. We began our conversation with his boycott of the fox news debate. In 2011 you werent participating in a debate and you said of the republicans who werent going to show we are not seeing a lot of counsel here are we, not a lot of counsel, these republicans are supposed to be brave. Why cant that be said about you . You are sharp, because there was no reason, i was doing the moderation, i mean it was for a news things and i asked the owner, a friend of mine a very good guy would i dont you do it, i have never done it before, i guess i will do it. But here is the difference, i was treated very unfairly by fox. I was treated, they werent very badly by fox, they issued a statement that was an inappropriate statement. Now what happened is since then they have been very nice and they tried very much to get me to do the debate, by that time, the event, might counter event had taken off and, you know, you have thousands of people standing out of the building it is amazing. What about this charge, though, it is a press release like if you thats okay. Dickerson you were offended by that is being a little you know what i did . I raised 6 million for vets. That is more important, frankly than doing a debate. Dickerson the Washington Post had a poll that said seven in ten voters have a high level of anxiety about you. Why do you think that is . Well, look, i am a strong guy. I am going to make our country great again, which is what we want, and i would say that, you know, i can think of people that maybe they would have a little bit less anxiety about but they wont get anything done and we are in trouble. Dickerson you talked about being unpredictable, is that unpriblghtbility causes people the anxiety . To be unpredictable, our enemies know what we are going to do, whether it is battle, whether it is war, whether it is finance, you have to be somewhat unpredictable. As an example, i mean, right now, i am the leader by a lot in terms of the republicans side and i am beating hillary in the polls. I hate to give you as an example an answer, you will ask me a question very strategic question, maybe a military type question and i have a very strong answer in mind but there is something about giving you that answer that bothers me very much because basically the enemy is getting that answer. Dickerson but what about, if you are president , people have this anxious feeling about you, you have to fix this, people cant be all anxious. I really dont think that, i think once with they know me, in fact i was listening to one of your cohorts recently, last week and they said they have never seen favorables go up so much so fast as my favorables. Dickerson but there is a lot of drama around your campaign, you are occasionally in twitter wars. Is that president ial, do you think these twitters back and forth . Well, i have been on twitter wars, before i was a politician started with 17 people, including myself, now a lot of them are dropping out and many more will be dropping out and get it down to a normal number but i was being barraged from all different sides, having twitter is great and between facebook and twitter and instagram i have 12 million people, more than 12 million people, so it is a great way of getting the word out, but certainly i mean, look, i went to great schools, i was a good student all of that stuff, i am very capable of slowing down twitter or doing whatever i want to do, but twitter is actually i found it to be, and facebook, a wonderful modern way of communicating. Dickerson in iowa, your campaign is based on the idea you are a winner, does that mean you have to win iowa . I dont have to win it and right now you and i are sitting in New Hampshire and as you know i have a very substantial lead in New Hampshire but i think it would be really good to win iowa, i would like to win iowa, i am doing really well with the evangelicals and in iowa but also doing tremendously well all over the country with the evangelicals i am leading by a lot. I am doing great with the tea groups. I now have a fairly substantial lead in iowa. I think we have a good chance of winning iowa, i would like to. Dickerson weeks ago it was tight never iowa and now you are ahead by a little more, why do you think that . Well, i think that ted cruz has been severely affected by the Goldman Sachs loans, which he didnt disclose, and it was on his personal financial form and the citibank loans he didnt disclose into couldnt that have been a mistake . It could have been but it is two loans, give me a break, okay an he is supposed to be robin hood for everybody, he didnt disclose it because he didnt want with to say he is dealing with the bankers, remember he says he sold his assets much more important is the whole fact he was born in canada. And he was a citizen of canada until a a certain time ago and there are constitutional lawyers coming out, lawrence tribe is sort of a middle ground, numbers he says it is untested but many lawyers coming, top constitutional lawyers that ted cruz cant run for president and be president because of the fact he was born in canada. I think has has a huge effect. You talk to people and if talk to people that talk to, go to your rallies and they like you are uncompromising and i talked to washington law make whores are overcoming their skepticism about you by thinking, he is going to compromise, he is going to make deals in washington, which one is right . I think everyone is right, i mean, honestly i they are, think they are all right, i am a tough deal maker and we have to make deals, it is funny when i see ted cruz standing in the senate and nobody else is with him and standing by himself and you have all of these other politicians, senators, and congressmen, generally and he is trying to he is by himself. It is wonderful and i can understand how a radio show host could say, oh isnt that wonderful, he he is not going to get anything done, you have to g able to get things done. Ted doesnt have an endorsement from one United States senator. Dickerson but he would say that is great no that is bad. Dickerson you have said terrible things about them in washington. You have to have a lot of them are very good people and some are people that wont get it done. Was passed is a horror show, it never should have been passed et cetera, et cetera but when ted doesnt have one senate like a mike lee who is a very conservative good, good, good guy, why isnt he getting the endorsements and i get the endorsements from sarah palin and jerry falwell, jr. And i have incredible, even sheriff joe endorsed me which means i am the best in the world. Dickerson knows are not senators but outside of washington. Still they are very important people. As an example, sheriff joe, arizona,. Dickerson joe arpaio. Trump, you know what that means, i am toughest on the border. Dickerson why do you think, you have a lot of working people at your rallies, you are more than any other company, you live a life that is most distant from them, why do they support you . Because i am a job producer. I produced 10s of thousands of jobs over my lifetime, right now i am producing thousands of jobs. That includes healthcare, education, for families, you know, et cetera, et cetera. And i grew up, me and my father was a builder in queens and i on building houses, and building whatever. I mean i relate to them, i love those people, i, those are my people, i love those people, i love the policemen, i love the firemen, for whatever reason, it is strange, i mean dickerson you dont ride three buses and no, po. Dickerson second job. I have, i have the ultimate bus called the 727, you know, and now it is a 757, actually, when i think of it, but somehow i always had great relationships with the workers. I work with them. I used to work during the summer building houses in brooklyn and queens. I mean i just worked with them. These are incredible people. They have been hurt very badly. The middle income people in our country have been hurt very badly, thats why i am doing a big tax cut for them. Person sanders says he can appeal to some of your voters and make a pitch to them. Would you make a pitch to Bernie Sanders . I think i will appeal to them. One thing, to a certain degree on his trade, we are getting horribly beaten in trade the trade deals he is not capable of doing it, he is incapable of doing it and, you know, he just wont be able to do that. Dickerson but he does at least acknowledge we are getting just absolutely ripped by china and all of these other countries. So in that way we are with the same. I think a lot of his people will come over. A one of the reasons that iowa and i think the other guys wont win i will get states they never will get, i have a chance of getting new york as an example and a good chance of getting virginia i will get pennsylvania, i will get ohio, i will get michigan, i will get florida, you know, my numbers just came down, i am at 48, the sitting senator i think is at 11 or 12, and a former governor is in the eights. But i think i will win florida, and i win a lot of states and one of the reasons i win them, a lot of democrats are going to cross over 0 to me because they are tired of what is happening. Dickerson when you are in iowa and went to a Church Service the sermon was in part on humility, what did you take away from that . Well, you know, they didnt know i was coming because of security reasons. Okay . Up, maybe they changed the curricula or maybe it was a combines dense but it was actually on humility, i dont know it was very good and a nice sermon, a beautiful church, i liked it. Dickerson but it was humility, a lot of people your name is on everything, you we often talked about you types brag doash i cant, your pitch. I know but there is more humility than you would think, believe me. Dickerson hidden humility. We are all the same and all going to the same place, probably one of two places, you know, but we are all the same and i do have actually much more would think. Dickerson but you dont want to show it . I would rather not play my cards. I want to be unpredictable. Dickerson who do you like in the super bowl . Well, chair lie naah team is sort of a hot team and the quarterback is doing great. I very much have always liked peyton manning, he is a very good guy, i know him. And he is a very, very good guy. So i have to go with the person i know and i like the other team i think the other team looks fantastic, probably they would will stick with at peyton because he is a very good guy. Dickerson all right, mr. Trump. Thanks so much. Thank you very much. Dickerson des moines senator, there is a lot of chatter you may be getting a lot of the last minute votes going your way, how does it feel . Well, we about our campaign here and we continue to feel that it is growing in our support and see what it leads to monday night, i mean ted cruz is clearly the front runner coming into the night and he has 10,000 volunteers on the ground, he spent an exorbitant amount of time here, tremendous amount of time here, and we have got, he has gotten everies every endorsement he wanted it is a tough hill to climb but we feel positive what it means going into New Hampshire, we will leave as soon as the caucus is over and we will be in New Hampshire early Tuesday Morning ready to work. Dickerson sounds like you are setting expectations for your opponent there, he is calling you the republican obama, what do you think of that . Oppose virtually everything barack obama stands for, it is kind of bizarre because ted is leading in a lot of the polls, he has a vast organization here an spent a lot of money and his campaign has bragged repeatedly about how well they are going to do here so it is kind of strange at the last minute they pivoted all of their attacks against me and disingenuous attacks, they took a video of an interview i did in 2007 in florida and clipped it so my full statements wasnt heard, and it makes it sounds like i support cap and trade and this already has been lampooned and mocked for years because i was, he tried to do the same thing, it is a weird and lastminute desperation attack. It is not really i dont understand why. He has got such a Strong Organization here in iowa, but it is all fine. We are going to be okay. We feel good about it into but maybe it is a good thing he is attacking you, it means you must be doing something right. Well, we have taken more than anybody else in attacks, jeb bushs super pac spent close to close to 30 million on television which is more than every attack on every other add ted cruzs attacks, yeah, when people dont attack a company, they have no chance to win with so we feel good about it and even better about the fact it is having no impact and we are continuing to work and move forward with our message so we are going to close , we are going to close strong here with our message, we like where that leads and we look forward to moving on as well to New Hampshire and South Carolina which comes up shortly after that. Dickerson let me ask you about the jeb bush attacks from his super pac, who spent a lot of time attacking you, stephen haze of the Weekly Standard says the Lasting Legacy of those attacks may be to make donald trump the nominee, what do you think of that . Well, donald trump i dont believe is going to be the nominee with that said, yeah, jeb has a right to spend his money any way he wants. I think people have noticed, that it is close to 30 million of attack ads against me and i knew that when i got into this race that the establishment, many people in the republican establishment didnt want me to run, they thought i needed to wait my turn or wait in line but i just felt after seven years of for patience, it was a time for action and so i ran i and i knew i would face some of this, this is big dollar checks written with into that super pac i am sure some of the people who wrote those checks are disappointed and others perhaps this is what they intended all along, but in the end, this election is in gods hand as everything is so we will do our very best and we are confident about where that leads. Dickerson you said the establishment doesnt want you, but when i talked to people who would be considered good members in Good Standing of the establishment, they do want you. Des Moines Register endorsed you, you are the hope against ted cruz and donald trump. If that was the case i wouldnt have raised only six where filled the Third Quarter of last year and i would be the one with 100 million super pac, but it is fine, look in the end we have to unify the Republican Party and in essence we wont be able to succeed if we cant unify the Republican Party and the conservative movement and then we have to grow it and reach out to people that havent voted for us before. And convince them that conservativism is the right approach for america. The company that can best, most quickly unify the party, unify the conservative movement and grow it and i know if i am the nominee i defeat person with any sanders or Hillary Clinton and thats why i know in the end we will be successful, we feel very positive about our campaign. Dickerson let me ask you about the question of immigration, there was a sharp set of exchanges between you and senator cruz during the debate youyou said of ted cruise it is built on a lie he is more conservative than the other candidates. But on the key piece of legislation on immigration, isnt the voter who cares about immigration, dont they just need to know you voted for it and he voted against it . Well, ted act like some purist and thats not a fact, ted helped designed george w. Bushs immigration platform, when he was working on his campaign, and there are memos that show that, and then as a senator, on cbs, and the national broadcast, ted said there had to be a compromise about the people who are here illegally, something he now calls am necessary, amnesty but thats what he was for, in the to pass Immigration Reform and bringing people out of the shadows, et cetera so he is not what he portrays himself to be. The bottom line is that this is an issue that does need to be confronted and does need to be fixed. It cannot continue the way it is. And it will not happen comprehensively there is no way to pass a comprehensive bill, that has been tried, i saw it and it doesnt work, the only way forward is to do this by beginning with border enforcement and conflict of the American People that immigration is under control but i think the lie is that ted continues to try to portray himself as the only conservative in the race and rand paul made the same point, and on this issue and others, ted has been very calculated, taking one position at one place and a different position somewhere else and voters see through that and in time it will catch up with him and already started, to i believe. Dickerson so your point of view is not about brace, about Something Big you are making a character attack here . Well, it is not a character attack, it is his record, i mean, he used to support doubling the number of green he used to support a 500 percent increase in guest worker visas and now he is against that. He used to be in favor of birthright citizenship and now he is against it. I mean on issue, he goes talking tough on china but leaves out the fact he defended a Chinese Company that stole inventions from an american, a floridian, a constituent of mine and he was a defense counsel for the Chinese Company. So just on issue after issue you see incredible calculation, he goes to new york and raises millions of dollars and then goes to the rest of the country and attacks new york values. These are the things that overtime people start to realize that those are real calculation here politically and just catches up with you. Dickerson all right. Senator rubio, we are going to have to end there it, thank you so much for being with us. Thank you. Thank you for having me. Dickerson we will be back in one minute with a closer look at where the race in iowa reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . Now by Company President and, ann selzer who is here the talk about her new bloomberg des moines iowa poll, lets talk with the republicans, what did you learn, what did you see in the numbers about trump voters . Well, one of the things we love about getting fresh data about a race and especially this close to the caucus is it starts to put some interesting puzzle pieces together. As you can see, donald trump is leading the race by five points, but the constituencies of that lead are very interesting, so he does especially well with moderates, he does especially well with people who consider themselves predominant he mainstream republicans, but he also does very well, his strongest showing is with people who say the system is rigged in favor of the rich and powerful, so you kind of have an Interesting Group of people who have come together to support donald trump as our leader in our poll. Dickerson and what about ted cruz . He is not too far behind donald trump, what do you find about he is not too far behind, but he has slipped out of first place, so you always think about the momentum on caucuses it is always important to get hot at the end so you have that enthusiasm. Ted cruz does very well with people who consider themselves very conservative. He also does and has done traditional which, traditionally well with he, with evangelical history, we know from caucus history this is a group that is more likely to show up on caucus night, so run a little scenario test in hour data to to say what if they show up in higher numbers than our poll would with suggest . He can bring that number a lot closer on caucus night with a good turnout among that constituency. Dickerson speaking of turnout, one of the big quest questions is whether or whether donald trump who is doing ate very different way than it normally is done in iowa whether his enthusiastic supersonics porters at the rallies will actually go to the gyms and churches and caucus, what do you think about that . Well, there are a couple of data points on that, first of all he has the highest supporters saying they are locked in, that they cannot be moved so that is a very nice hinge for a company to have. But we also. Asked respondents, how enthusiastic would you be if company x were the nominee and Donald Trumps numbers are not that enthusiastic, much higher for ted cruz, much higher for marco rubio, so that is just a little hint, is there enough enthusiasm among his core that they will go out on caucus night, show up and support him. Dickerson and what about quickly on the republican side, late deciding voters . Are they going anyway, do you think . How many of them are there . Well, the way with that i look at late deciding, it is a relatively small group, but for donald trump and for ted cruz, but it is closer to half of the people supporting every other company who would say i can still change my mind. And what is different about caucuses is room. To show up to vote at the primary there is a law about how happen but there will be electioneering in that caucus room, and all of those candidates with two or three Percentage Points support may be courted to come on board with someone who you think has a chance to win and that might be marco rubio or it could be ted cruz or possibly donald trump, although he is a more isolating character. Dickerson swimming swrks switching over to the democratic side, also close between person with any sanders and Hillary Clinton. What do you see in the numbers that is interesting to you . What is interesting to me is that a, that is a threepoint race right now but Hillary Clintons numbers show kind of an undergirding of strength, she is a very strong number, 83 percent of her supporters who say they are locked in. Her issue, and this is kind of a good thing, bad thing, she is a, she does very well with older voters, Bernie Sanders does very well with younger voters, he kind of has that obama coalition, the first timers, people who consider themselves independent rather than those are all less reliable but he has a enthusiasm going for him that if he can get those people out on caucus night we can see a surprise in those rooms. Dickerson all right, ann selzer with the wonderful des Moines Register bloomberg poll, thanks so much for being with us and giving us all of those insights. We will be right back with more politics. Dickerson stay with us. We have got a lot more coming up. And to keep on top of all of the political news during the week please describe to our face the nation 2016 diary podcast. You can find it on itunes or on your podcast app. Stand,. Dickerson some of our cbs stations are leaving us now, but for most of you, we will be right back with our Campaign Reporters and with our panel. Stay with us. Every year, the amount of data your enterprise uses goes up. Smart devices are up. Cloud is up. Analytics is up. Seems like everything is up except your budget. Introducing comcast Business Enterprise solutions. With a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need without the high cost. Because you cant build the business of tomorrow dickerson welcome back to face the nation, i am john dickerson, we are joined now by cbs news chief white house correspondent, Major Garrett who is on the campaign trail following republicans and cbs news congressional correspondent, nancy cordes isxd covering the democrats. They are both in des moines this morning. Nancy i want to start with you, Hillary Clinton has been working hard in iowa for a very long time in this election, how is that going to pay off for her at the end . I think what it means, john, is that her campaign knows exactly who they need to get to the caucuses and how many people. They need to get to caucuses. They have been working on this not just for the past year, but if you think about it, they have got all the knowledge from the Clinton Campaign back in 2008, the Obama Campaign back in 2008, which was victorious here, all of those people, all of those workers now working on her campaign here in iowa. And i think beyond that, when we tand i think beyond that, when we alk about the fact that person standard has, Bernie Sanderses has a lot of enthusiasm at his rallies if there seems there is lessen theus yasm for Hillary Clinton i think in part because people have known for such a long time that she was running. They know her about as well as any iowa ans can know about her and they made their minds about her one way or the other. A lot of supporters told us in iowa, yeah i like Hillary Clinton, i will vote for her, i dont need to go to one of her events because i already know what she is about and i heard her three times the last time she ran. Dickerson that makes Bernie Sanders the new kid on the block in iowa, if thats the case and Bernie Sanders does he will have done well because there have been a surge of young voters who fulfilled their promise to get out and caucus, who beat the statistical odds and came out in larger numbers than they typically do. He has been saying for several days, like a broken record, i will only win if turnout is larger than normal. There is a very good reason he is saying that. He is saying to his supporters look it is not enough to love my message and not enough to come to my value police you actually have to go to the caucuses and that is kind of a heavy lift, especially for young people, it is not like going to vote in a primary, you go there for two hours, you talk to your neighbors, and so it really requires a great deal of devotion and an understanding of how the system works, and so his campaign is trying to educate young voters, they have been putting out videos online, they are offering to drive them from their College Towns back to their hometowns to caucus. The question is, how many of these young people will take him up on the offer . On the question of turnout, Major Garrett lets go to the republicans now, the guys at the top of the polls is donald trump, but in terms of turnout, is he going to be able to convert that enthusiasm from the percentages . John, the central question for the Trump Campaign is can you win an iowa caucus by making politics for lack of a better word with fun . There is a showmanship like quality to the trump rallies, the crowds form long before the event, people wait patiently, these are people who are not typically involved in politics, he come to see trump and laugh at all of his jokes and after yard the line is actually rap rouse and clinton in, i saw a huge biceps with a bandana on the head and got an autograph from trump and walked away almost in tears, thats the kind of reaction that trump elicits, so that is all great for trump and the theatrical side of politics but this is a ground game operation in iowa, i have net people who tell me they are either precinct captains or making phone calls for trump but they acknowledge they have never made as many phone calls as the campaign would like, so the bottom line question is, does all of this energy translate to caucus attendance . The trump people believe in the end it will, and it will come not just from republicans, but from some democrats who have been drawing the trump message. Dickerson what about ted cruz, then he has been in neck and neck race with trump. Tell competent about his organization. All right. So trump is fun. Ted cruz, fundamentals what do i mean by fundamentals . Identifying and i mean really identifying, at the granular level, tea party enthusiasts, social conservatives, the evangelicals, who are they . The most reliable voters in iowas republican caucuses over history. The Cruz Campaign has spent months identifying these voters, sending them not. One or two mailers but sometimes three or four in the same day, all about issues they care about. Cruz events are much quieter, there is much greater conversation about the crisis of conservativism and how you need someone who is a true believer, all the, who has all the convictions you share because that is what they believe will get the most reliable voters to all of the caucus sites all around the state, 99 counties more than 1,600 precincts and they believe by taking care of mike huckabee, Rick Santorum forum and rand paul, all competitors for these voters, they are well positioned to pull a surprise over trump come monday night. Dickerson nancy among the democrats you have been out there a while following them, give us a little flavor for what is different about Hillary Clinton event and a Bernie Sanders event. It is interesting, john, iowa has always been a retail politics place as you know, voters want to get to know their candidates, they want to shake their hand, look them in the eye, talk to them. Bernie sanders is not a retail kind of guy. He gets up there, he gives his speeches. The audience is moved, they love listening to him, he is clearly very passionate, they find him very authentic, but then he exits the stage left. Around and glad hand, and take a selfie, but they dont really seem to mind, in fact, i have been at some of his rallies where they literally sort of part and allow him to walk past and exit, and because they though that, you know, he is there to sort of talk about these issues, they have been waiting to hear about the, it for a long time but he is not really, you know, one on one type of guy. Hillary clinton, the exact opposite. Her events may be smaller, they may be a little less raucous, but she six around for sometimes half an hour, 45 minutes, on the rope line, shaking hands, talking to people about their problems, offering to take selfies with them and asking them point blank, i really need you to come out and caucus. And that is an area where she seems to be far more comfortable and yet even though they have these very, very different styles, they are neck and he can in the polls. Dickerson major, finally to you, the third place finish may matter a lot in iowa. Finish there . Thats what it looks like and the rubio camp is very good about that and sort of an interesting question, when does third place equal first . Well when with the first place finisher is third place and represents either mainstream republicans or socalled establishment republicans. Thats where rubio wants to land. The most recent poll has him 15 percent, consistent with internal Rubio Campaign data and believe they can bet to 17, 18 percent here, the crowds in the closing days have been getting larger and ladies and gentlemen of thelarger a lotof enthusiasm on the ground and for rubios campaign it is all about the distance between ever else vying to be that establishment or mainstream alternative, a lot of distance between Chris Christie, john kay situate, Kasich Jeb Bush here because they believe that will translate to momentum into New Hampshire. He hopes to he in nernl South Carolina as the alternative to ted cruz or donald cruz. Dickerson nancy cordes and Major Garrett, out on the campaign trail, thanks to both of you. Youre welcome. Dickerson we will be right ah, perfect. Valet parking. Hello heres the keys. Test. Dickerson and we are back with our panel. Joining us today, wall street journal columnist, kim strassel, ben domenech is publisher of the federalist, easy sez the editor of vo g. Com and ed okeefe covers politics for the Washington Post. Finally voting is going to happen. Finally. Dickerson what are we going to learn even . Maybe the Million Dollars question or the billion dollar question because it is donald trufer is what marriage was talking about, does he have an operation out there . Are the people who are lining up are they devoted celeb watchers or are they devoted caucus goardz . And if he, it is particularly interesting because we had numbers out this week where people had they, has the campaign contacted you and who. They say they have been contacted by the Cruz Campaign, even by the bush campaign, by the Rubio Campaign, not so many people said that trump had reached out to them. Dickerson they are all reaching out to him, though. Yes, they are. Dickerson ezra, what do you make, what are you looking for out of iowa . I am actually watching rubio, we know it is going to be trump or cruz running through what people are calling the conservative lane, i think we are hot exactly sure what is going to happen with the more establishment republicans, i think for a long time the conventional wisdom has been some point rubio will break out of the pack so now there is this feeling he is surge ago little by at the end in iowa, as i said before, maybe gets to 17, 18 percent, if you get a very strong third in iowa and goes into New Hampshire you could begin to see the establishment coalesce around here, a big amount of money to his campaign of cruz or trump go to him if not you will have the same dynamic you have had for some time now where you have rubio, christie, bush and kasich and potentially a couple of others all fighting for same lane in the primary and no real ability for the establishment to unite. But rubios problem is that donald trump actually has the most support among moderate and mainstream republicans, they support, this is actually cominga3 from the conservative wing of the party, it is coming mohr from the mainstream which is more of a challenge from him, i think the lesson we are going to learn ore the, over the course of the next couple of weeks, not just iowa, is Donald Trumps historical analog like pat buchanan who won four of the first six contests in 19 1996 or more like the 19th century and the bourbon democrats who backed the Gold Standard and free trade and riding with kim at the wall street journal today and then saw William Jennings brian come along and take over the party is with a speech, which i think will make the establishment and elites of the party very afraid. Dickerson because William James had a terrible president ial success rate. Go ahead. Well, the other thing though here too is you talk to any of the candidates out there, the other cane other than donald trump, they are eager for a oneonone march with donald trump. Right. I mean, no they really do think he is beatable. And i think this goes to bens point is that he seems to have a feeling, honest support he is getting moderate republicans but there is a limit to the number he gets. You have been spending a lot of time with the nontrump and cruz candidates in New Hampshire. Slowly, lonely and quiet. Talk about that a little bit, because they need to find their moment or it may pass them. Thats why none of them will be, with the exception of rubio will be in iowa tomorrow night. Kasich has been in New Hampshire all weekend, Chris Christie and jeb bush get to New Hampshire tomorrow, those three guys certainly see New Hampshire really as their last stand, bush to some extent has operations in the other states and probably the other two certainly, theying if they cannot finish well in New Hampshire they are done and go home, i think back to ezras point if rubio has a good night in iowa on monday i think the clamoring for consolidation, for getting out, foretelling the Jeb Bush Super pac quit hitting rubio and focus more on consolidating between one or two of these guys will really step uh up and we have seen a lot of that in the last few queens and calls for the jeb bush pack to back off and their argue it argument is working because it is keeping him down in iowa and New Hampshire, as jeb bush starts to creep up with about ten days to go. So what do you make of, ann mentioned of those voters who think the system is rigged, donald trump, the wealthiest person running is getting the most of that vote on the republican side, why do you think that . I think it is general confinely court appeal, if you watch trumps counter rally as i did, he had this great line in the middle of it, and you can go back and look at the transcript and find it, he says, i am really greedy, i am a really greedy person, i have been want greedy on behalf of america. And there is something the perfect in encapsulation of the a appeal because if you think what is going on, the economy has become unfair, if you are struggling for, if you are economically struggling and rich guys like trump are kind of screwing you over and have been for some time now, and now here comes one of those rich guys with all of those powers and all of that capacity to rig the economy in their favor and he is saying he will rig it in your favor, i think, kind of it is an indictment of a belief of what is going in the economy right now, they think what they need is someone to rig it in their favor, but i think it is very, very significant as part of his appeal and it is an appeal he understands about himself, which is one reason he is such a good company. Dickerson having been there myself i was in the rafters and what is stunning is talking to veterans who at the event beforehand i said superintendent he taking advantage of you guys . And they all do, they take advantage of veterans but he is other guys only ask them to spend money in washington and on their behalf to help the v. A. Hospitals and what not and drag their feet and dont do it, this guy is going to raise money and if you look, 6 million he says raised and from his friends in new york and las vegas that night but 22 organizations across the country who are going to get this money, apparently, they are very small, they are in iowa and in massachusetts, all over, and i mean he can say to them i took advantage of my power, doled out the money and help you. This courts to his appeal in she a trader to his class which really is, you know, something we have seen in politics before and enormously powerful. A bumper sticker. It is donald trump. Exactly and in that that makes hillary very pacific and very powerful but also a sign of a situation where the Republican Party has aid to address the fact that they are out of step with significant portion of their 0 of the voting electorate when coat top the issues of immigration and Foreign Policy and when it comes to these issues, to these core sort of the economy is rigged in a way that does not benefit us, and now in the end comes with promises to rig it in your favor with the voters. What is your feeling about ted cruz . If he doesnt win iowa is that a fatal blow for him . Where is his place in this . I think the stakes for both donald trump and ted cruz are incredibly high because they have staked so much on iowa, and ted cruz, in particular, his entire message has been, geared toward saying i am the most conservative person in the race and he tailored it very specifically to that the grass roots activists there and the tea parties and the evangelicals, so if you cant win iowa where do you win . You know, and that is going to be the big blow to him, if he doesnt come out on top going into New Hampshire and no one wants to go into New Hampshire with a negative momentum, you know,. There is a point though i think it is an interesting question about trump, you are asking him a his entire campaign is based on this idea he is a winner, he brags about it on the stump, everything is about his high poll numbers, and something that really fascinating to watch him if he loses an early primary like iowa does it collapse on himself, the winner and beat by ted cruz how much does that hurt the fundamentals of his appeal and also how does he react to that . Because you can act very badly to a loss. He does not like to lose. No. It would make the loss a lot more likely. That may be a packet too hard to get around. Ben, quickly on the fight on immigration between cruz and rubio on the debate and afterwards does that illuminate anything about immigration in the Republican Party or just two guys fighting . I think it is just two guys fighting and i am not sure really either of them got hurt that much or benefited that much from their responses to those questions in the debate. I think the problem that has really dogged marco rubio throughout this race is that the last thing that Republican Voters know about him is that they supervisor forked the gang of eight bill and i think that is something that is fundamental and sort of easy to explain in a way that cruzs flip flop on in sort of amendment issue is not as easy to explain, the question is whether that is still as big of a drag rubio cant get momentum coming out of iowa in Southern States and sort of in future cop tests thats very quick, it is a longterm problem, to have two cuban republican americans continue to fight about immigration, hispanics are listening, democrats are listening, if one of them emerges it will be a huge problem for them. And we we hope you will all be listening as a we take a break. Stay with us for more of the sanders,. And we are back with our panel. I will start with you on the democrat side. Some people who supported Hillary Clinton said they really wanted her to have a challenge in the primary. She got one. Where do things stand in iowa and what do you look for there . What is fascinating in iowa there is a replay in a way a in an argument that happened in 2008 too that Hillary Clinton is much more of a political realist than domestic people who run for president , barack obama that promised hope and change and promised there was a way too change and trance form the political system, such to be friendly to progressive priorities, he won with that argument, and there was a period of time in the interim when liberals with so disappointed by obamas frustrations with clintons argument this is going to be a fight, that democrats needed a fighter, there would be trench warfare, had gotten more traction along liberals and what sanders is showing this is not true he comes in the argument with a political evolution, a way to mobilize the working class and mobilize the progressive majority and sweep the old ways out of the way in american politics and i think there are things clinton is figuring out how to sell a more realistic but also more depressing vision of american politics, how do you respond to that by saying, that that is not realistic but i dont have an answer that will make you happy either. Right, right. One of the most interesting things that happened over the course of the past couple of years is it became okay to be a democratic socialist in america. In the sense that this was not something Bernie Sanders when he was in the house of representatives was someone on the extreme and under, understood as being on the extreme yet something changed in america and it changed in large part because of the rise of the young group of americans who have no association, no memory of the cold war, they do not communism or the soviet union or anything of that nature, there is an interesting poll that came out a few months ago that asked under 30year olds who they would be okay with voting for, 69 percent of people under 30 there is gallup said they would be okay voting for a socialist for the presidency, compared to 75 percent who said they would be okay voting for an evangelical christian thats a dramatic shift compared to previous generations and thats the kind of support bernie is tapping into. If Hillary Clinton wins in iowa and New Hampshire does that mean the democrats are making a sensible choice about what it takes to govern and being practical . They are probably maybe ago pragmatic choice about a nominee that would have. Have a better chance of beating a republican, i think everyone probably agrees with this, that there is a lot of enthusiasm for bernie standards and when you have some of these head to head matchups with republicans. He does do fairly well against some of them, but i think maybe when his positions are better known in the country, the, is the country really ready to go there . Possibly not and that is probably on the minds of a lot of democrats who are going out to vote. Lets play it through some scenarios here, one, iowa and New Hampshire have a lot more liberals than my of the other contests so lets imagine Bernie Sanders rides this wave of enthusiasm and wins in those two places, how much damage does that do to Hillary Clinton . Well he certainly has momentum, in fact he probably raised a little more money in South Carolina and some of those states looking more seriously at standarders of course he has all, sanders, he has more money to deploy my people in iowa and those places, but the coalitions or the demographics of those other states change dra dramatically we talked about in before that iowa, New Hampshire and vermont are the most liberal states of the country, everywhere else is not nearly as liberal and white a lot of those 30year olds will live in these other places, a lot of democrats who are much more pragmatic and understand having sanders as the nominee would not work and probably will swing back toward clinton but prolong the race, thats why you saw this conversation about debates all the way into may, i mean the fact they are even talking about off wins in both early states, this could go on for quite a while. It is worth noting i think that one thing Hillary Clintons team has done they did not do in 08 they always have been prepared even with not that much evident opposition for a very long race. They felt they lost the 08 race because they did not prepare for a delegate fight in smaller caucus states and they just did not have a strategy that was ready for it to go through june and they do this time. Thats right. Her other problem though here and we havent talked about it is not just the enthusiasm problem, but the email problem. Yes. And the trust thing. I mean, look, Bernie Sanders is going into iowa and the Closing Argument is lets make the world a better place. And Hillary Clinton is going into iowa and her Closing Argument is, well, we are pretty confident there may not be an indictment. I mean, that is just not a great place to be. So she has got this and it plays into the trust question, and that does resonate in particular with a lot of these younger people that you are talking to as well. It also is the other side of the coin when it comes to the economic game being rigged. Person who has the message of saying, if you believe the economy is rigged against you, if you are a disaffected voter if you feel like you are frustrated with the situation, with bailouts, with wall street, with everything of that nature she is not someone who is going to upset the apple cart, both trump and sanders tap into that out there in the country that feels they are ignored by both parties and they feel that way frankly because they have. If Hillary Clinton does wellable there doesnt seem there is the kind of animus, remember the clinton and bmg voters really didnt like each other for a period of time in 2008, it doesnt feel like that at all in terms of the sanders voters and the clinton voters, thats the first question, the second is what does she do if she does do well . She might have a period of time where things are going well for her while the republicans are still fighting things out. I think, one, there is not going to be deep divisions in the better and it is worth saying in, even in twowf eight while there was a lot of talk of pumas at the elections and these big splits there didnt end up being that, they want a nominate, they are concentrating mind in terpts of what they do on a very long period, where all of the attention is going to a Republican Campaign that is going for month after month they will raise a lot of money and do a lot of organizing but that may not be a good period for clinton because it is a period in which she gets covered as a president who gets investigated. We will have phoned there, thanks to all of you. And we will be right back in a moment. Sanders,. Dickerson thats it for us today. Be sure to tune in tomorrow night at 7 00 p. M. Eastern to our Digital Network cbsn for our live coverage of the results from iowa. Until next week, for face the nation, i am john dickerson. Captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by Media Access Group at wgbh