life cycle cost basis. my guess is that we are going to do some experimentation as we go forward. it is important to start it, because in two years we will have to stand and deliver to the ratepayers. but >> i lost you a little. you are saying, not to get to micro? >> yes. >> but i think it is an important niche in an important thing to buy green. >> when he said blue or white, he was referring to the color of the vehicles. >> of. [laughter] -- oh. [laughter] >> water department vehicles, fired a bargain vehicles, blue, red -- fire department vehicles, blue than red. >> with logos. what's [laughter] a couple of -- [laughter] >> a couple of years ago we did adopt a vehicle policy regarding replacement? >> i have tried to dusted off. we talked about it three years ago at the camp -- at the chair's request. in those three years, we have never elevated it again. our practice has been three years and 100,000 miles. in some cases, we have exceeded that i as far as having even more -- older vehicles with higher moloch -- higher mileage. in a small number of places we have reviewed them to make sure that they are green and electric. since then, the mayor's office have come out -- has come out with a number of different announcements. so, the policy does exist from back then. >> was there not a clean air program that we had? >> there are a number of them. the healthy air and clean transportation ordinance. shelling what it would take to comply with those reductions. >> to your point, where there are these existing policies that we can make sure are being enforced and complied with. >> the way that it was described as good. making sure that they're being complied with or not, and if they're not, why? maybe it is an implementation. at least that way we know where they are. within the rate policy there is a provision for compliance saying basically we should raise rates to support budgets that are complying with law and policy. a more complete version of that would be proposed. any other thoughts or comments? this would be before us during the bi hope that we can get a py to the hat is ready for adoption. the ratepayer assurances policy, perhaps that will take longer. but i look forward to working with you on that as well. >> that includes my report. >> public comment on the general managers' report? >> let me just comment on the rates policy. i think that now would be a good time to start out with -- context from my perspective. several years back, probably 2005 or so, when [unintelligible] was the finance director for a time. she wanted to pull together these policies for a comprehensive set. there was not the time or organizational capacity existing then to do this. i am glad that this project is actually coming to fruition. it is good and we are all sorts of appreciative that we are at that point. particularly with reference to transparency, i would add a reference to the popular annual transparency report. this is not a great document. not all the apartments do an annual report, not all departments doing good annual report. this commission does a great annual report. that is part of the public accountability. i would reference it there in transparency. some of the other points that you talked about, i would add compliance. each department probably has to do one now. probably another thing that we are compliant with. maybe the mayor's executive directive as it relates to things like fleet topics. another thing that i would add, maybe it is affordability, it is a little bit of discussion about nexis and proportionality as it relates to prop 218. seven different classes of customers are not cross- subsidizing other classes of customers and they are in fact earning their fair share. we do that anyways, but it is a good place to have reference to that. i will continue to share them with my budget finder on thursday. i do have some homework to read between now and then. thank you. >> mr. jensen bella >> thank you. first of all, i would like to congratulate the commission in the staff for taking this on. this is unnecessary exercise. it is not an exercise, it is just government. a couple of comments, from our perspective, the commission has in joint one decade is spending on the waterside in terms of spending from 10 years ago. that was adopted in you are welded do it now. they know that there is a limit to spending. you have seen that. we have certainly seen that already. it may account for the decrease water use. but we are not in this yet. as i think about that, i think about your budget process. it is massive and difficult to bore into regarding detailed policy guidelines. one thing that would be valuable, if you could make it work, there is one thing that you can use in trade offs. it is difficult in a budget this size. you have a lot of different direction that you are pulling out. i would not advise abandoning progress. there are things, historical costs that are probably low priority in advancing these things into the future. the green issues, environmental issues, and so forth, if people were not willing to have a vision, the difficult thing is that when your resources are limited, i do the think that any of us will have that courage at the state and federal level. on the waterside they've least agreed to do that for 10 years. somehow your budgeting process is going to have to reconcile. >> thank you. any other public comment? thank you. mr. secretary, please call the consent calendar. >> all matters listed hereunder under a consent calendar are considered to be routine by the san francisco public utilities commission, and will be acted upon by a single vote of the commission. the ratification of the declaration of the emergency made by the general manager of san francisco public utility commissions regarding the division yard. b, the approval of the plans and specifications and awarding of wastewater enterprise, renewal and replacement program, funded to the department of public works pavement renovation program. c, amendment no. 1 to the water enterprise, water system improvement program. d, approve the amended to water enterprise fund agreement with a grid 1 solutions to extend the turnkey installation. and authorize the general manager of the san francisco public utilities commission to execute the contract modification. we have no speaker cards on any of these items. >> second. >> moved. >> public comments? any discussion? those in favor? >> aye. >> opposed? the motion carries. >> mr. president, the next item will be the regular business calendar, beginning with an update presentation. >> as you will recall, we have had several discussions over the years. it was asked to be brought back to us on a regular basis for what was going on in the industry and regular science. we asked for the update on this discussion today. >> before i set the timer, is five minutes enough for you? >> i do not know how to answer that question. yes. is there a time of your have in front of you bin laden >> -- in for the view? >> yes. >> would you like us to bring the timer before you? >> yes. this is in the first slide and the final stages of review in production. i am also going to put this report in the context of overall climate change work. i will put it in the context of framing climate change in general. with this study, we did a couple of key things. we calibrated a model and created a tool that models the way that the watershed will respond to the precipitation that we will see as a result. we successfully calibrated at in the analysis. this is a sensitivity analysis. meaning beyond looking at the sensitivity in the reservoir to changes in temperature and precipitation. what would happen in the watershed with these kinds of changes that were detailed in the outline of the memo. key conclusions are nearing what other providers are finding in this level of analysis. rupp runoff declined, but one was the most serious. snow storage has declined significantly later in the century. the bigger distribution of runoff will shift, moving earlier than what we saw today. finally, temperature increases alone will have an effect. there is a greater effect when there is a combination of temperature increases and deep -- decreases. how we came to the climate change scenario in the sensitivity analysis is important. it shows two maps. one, our country under a scenario of higher co2 emissions. one, under lower. the difference between higher temperatures and higher co2 emissions leading to higher temperatures and lower co2 emissions leading to lower temperatures is fairly significant, as you can see. that makes a big difference and it highlights how in climate change analysis, we need to account for these changes. there was low, moderate, and high increase in temperatures as displayed here. the same exercises for precipitation. there were two different emission scenarios in our region. you can see that precipitation will go down significantly. some models actually show it going up. typical of what we're seeing from the science. we have to do for precipitation in our region is look at three different regions. one where it goes up slightly, another where it goes down somewhat, and then by a relatively significant amount towards the end of the century. the specific findings of all of this, when we ran it through the model, was this question, but i wanted to focus on one. lengthy runoff in the base year with a current condition in blue, a scenario to a in green in three be in pink. -- 2a in green and thre3a in pi. when you get to scenario 3b, high temperature increase and decrease together, not only are those affects exacerbated, but the shape is affected fundamentally insignificantly. this is an important subject for us, of course. the study, obviously, raises for all of us -- what is the effect on the water supply? the study was not intended to answer that question. the next step in this analysis, where we would run the numbers through our operations model, and use it for the same kind of planning analysis for other functions, it tells us what the potential impact would be. that work is scheduled for completion this summer, telling us about the impact of these findings. other elements that have yet to be impact -- that have yet to have impact findings are what will have -- what happened in other sites in terms of precipitation extremes. that is part of the state of the art comprehension -- comprehensive assessment that will begin next year. thank you very much. >> well done. very interesting presentation. i appreciate your doing that. questions, comments, thoughts for the commission? >> were there any surprises when he ran these numbers? compared with other comparative literature? >> fundamentally, the results by summarized were not surprising, but greatly. the interesting thing at the beginning of the study was the minimum temperatures, we had to calibrate, and they were already going down. not insignificantly. it was something that other people were seeing, but we did not even know about it until we got into this study. it had to do with the timing of snowmelt and how quickly it got during -- got cold during the night. i do know if it was shocking, but it seemed to come out of the global warming profile. >> temperatures are going down? >> what i meant was going up. >> that would be opposite, yes. [laughter] >> maximum daily temperatures, no chain so far. >> killing up to what? >> the average used to be in one of my charts. it is going up by 0.8, or one degree, total. not insignificant for the last 50 years. in terms of calibrating the model, it is interesting and smart. >> i thought that i saw something in here that talked about how the model hypothesis is that seasons will start coming earlier than later. that rainfall will be coming earlier, said that the spring will come sooner. that does that seem to be what is happening now or last year. seems to me that there was a leader seasonal shift. is that one of the things that was confirmed or calibrated? >> generally, we would expect to see is more precipitation falling as rain that as snowe, overall. precipitation falling as rain rather than snow earlier in the year. snow on the ground melting in becoming streams flow, rather than staying as snowpack sooner. what we see in any individual year, like this high and dry december, some of the streaming events are seen all over the country. the texas drought last year, the heat wave in moscow couple of years ago, are difficult to attribute to climate change. scientists are working on that. it is a mixed bag. i heard jane at the conference a couple of years ago and should be some of the extreme events this year, which we have seen more than usually do, to climate change. but it is hard to look at one year. that is more like the weather, a short-term phenomenon that we already see in the climate that be influenced by climate change, but it is hard to tease out the differential of fact. what we're seeing this year as opposed to what 5 unchanged brings on average is difficult to decide. spring-like conditions will be happening earlier in the year under climate change and other scenarios. >> i have a another question about the slots that you had on commission. the one of those represent where we will be of having set -- if nothing happens if we do not change course? >> the red one, the bad one was a2. that is under the fourth assessment report in climate change that came out in 2007. that is not the worst case scenario. the scenarios are changing their names, just to make everyone confused. economic activity is done, but we have been running at a higher level than the worst-case scenarios that were outlined in the fourth assessment in 2007. >> so, the higher emissions scenario was a best case scenario? >> it was worse than the red. it is about on track. 15 degrees fahrenheit is odd. that is completely different. >> so, what are we going to do? specific to the puc and the water supply, what should we be doing to prepare? >> we should be doing a lot of what we are doing, i think. obviously, i think that. i said it in the memo, i think we are judiciously increasing the sophistication of our analysis at every step. but are not reliefers the doctors. although the general managers leadership under the alliance and a lot of the work done at the national level, we are seen as national adapters. we are taking a step by step. we are not the first person to buy and iphone, is by example. the advantage of that is we are not paying $600 for something that may not work as well, and the other thing is we may be benefiting from earlier examples. they came and talked about their earliest assessment from 2003, 2007, etc. hours -- i can say this because they are not here -- will be better than that. we are learning from their benchmarks. in this process, which tells us the implications of these changes in runoff only. step three will initiate but we were not trying to answer here, including what is likely, like a scenario saying that we are doing well or badly. we need to know at some point which one of those is going to be actionable. which one of those are we going to react to? that is not today. we have time to come up with a good answer to that. that is what we are going to do. that is the trajectory of our analysis, which i think is going on -- going along extremely well. >> lessons like one year? three years? let's face to is the water supply runoff scenario change in 2012. the assessment itself, we are scoping it right now. i would predict a good 18 month project, to be minimum. that would start depending on when we assemble the right team of scientists and experts that we need to help us to evaluate the state of the science and issues a engaged in that. i hope that that would start as soon as possible in 2012. >> well we are also talking about, and this is also davids' issue, the no regrets policy program is giving us another reliable system for whatever happens. we are not wasting something on the program that will not be of use, depending on what happens with this. it also makesthis makes it juste where. something has been like that for a year or two and that is a long-term view of the world that we have to live with. >> will there be some more specific ideas or programs in response to this analysis and the data that continues to be collected? for example, some storage facilities on the ground that will help as we see less and less water beyond our traditional conservation? >> there will. all lot of what we're working on is the sources improvement program. this is what you should do regardless of what your view is in terms of the climate change. we probably will not be able to link them directly to one view of climate change. this is the shorter view before we say this is our selected path forward. >> as part and parcel of our water supply planning generally as we have been doing it so far and looking at demand projections as well as what has happened because of either water that has to be dedicated to fisheries. we have had both things driving that. as we look at what we do to balance our supply equation, this is a key part of that. >> for example, december was the third driest months since we started recurring dutch recording it. in response to that come up our deliveries were up 20 million gallons a day over last december. that is a huge change. >> are there any other thoughts, questions? >> thank you for your good work. >> i work here in the city and i had the pleasure of working on climate issues. i really welcome the opportunity to talk about two things. one is to present a report to you, the other is to discuss the one that you just heard. what do we do about climate change? we completed a review of what 12 cities are doing to adapt to climate change. we have looked at big cities and small. cities across the country to look at what they're doing to adapt to climate change. you have done a lot of things to be in the forefront. the modelling work that you are discussing here today, retrofitting or waste water treatment systems. you have really been among the leaders looking at those issues. i want to suggest that you take a look at this report to see what other cities are doing to continue to bolster your effort.
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