stomach and cramps in my legs. those are signs of heat stress. >> we've been expecting a dry year somewhere along the line, but this year is wort than expected. >> about five hours we checked in with michelle franzen in new york central park. how is it out there now, michelle? >> reporter: it's starting to heat up here in central park, which means in other 82s of the city it's also heating up. we're supposed to be flirting with 100 degrees but the heat index will make it feel between 105 and 110. i'm still in pretty good company out here at noon, a lot of people running, biking. that's how it's been all morning throughout central park. many people trying to get out early today and still taking things in stride. >> it's just harder. everything is a bit harder. just try to keep pouring water with, taking sips. go slow. >> i'm a dealer. whatever it is, i deal with it. don't let it get me. >> reporter: those are precautions that people are taking, getting out early, staying hydrated, going inside when the heat builds. elsewhere around the country and along the east coast and mid-atlantic we are seeing severe heat playing out. parts of the midwest have been dealing with the heat wave for two weeks. we're not expecting to see relief anytime see, maybe in the next day or two as storms move in. in the meantime, health officials are warning people to stay hydrated, stay inside and take precautions. >> i cannot believe all the people still biking behind you, michelle. and the runners, too, at this time of day. i'm just -- the sweat must be pouring off of them. >> reporter: they're dog a pretty good job. aloft of people seem to be enjoying this heat so far. but they're certainly watching it and certainly tell us that they're taking some precautions as they head out. again, noon, as these temperatures head well into the 90s at this hour. >> at least those ladies have iced drinks in their hands. those pedicap operab operators, deserve big tips. thank you, michelle. let's go to front page politics and president obama fresh from a two-day swing state bus tour signing into law a transportation bill he says will create much-needed jobs. >> first of all, this bill will keep thousands of construction workers on the job rebuilding our nation's infrastructure. second, this bill will keep interest rates on student loans from doubling this year, which would have hit nearly 7.5 million students with an average of $1,000 more on their loan payments. >> this comes on the heels of the new jobs report showing the economy created 80,000 jobs in june with the unemployment rate remaining at 8.2%, republicans seized upon those numbers in their weekly address this morning. >> just look at yesterday's job report. the latest in a string of bad news about the economy. unemployment is stuck at 8.2%, higher than it was when president obama took office and much higher than his administration promised it would be with the stimulus in effect. >> new today, the swing states are about to be slanled with a summertime blitz of new ads. the conservative nonprofit group crossroads gps is purchasing $25 million worth of anti-president obama ads that will air across nine battleground states starting tuesday. joining me now, deputy national political editor for the national post anne kornblut and perry bacon jr. thanks for joining me. >> thanks for having us. >> anne, when you look at it, what is the narrative here? has it changed on the jobs number from the last time? should we expect it to change in any dynamic way in the presidential campaign? >> no, it hasn't changed much and it would be hard to imagine a world where it could change dramatically between now and november. only four more reports are left to come. it was pretty good in the beginning of the year, it started to slow down obviously in the last couple of months. the white house line has been, there's been some improvement, we're not there yoet. romney is seizing on these. the question is, the votesers already know the economy is bad or whether this is a potent reminder to shift numbers. i do think both campaigns are aware as you see that pretty much by labor day people's feelings about the economy are going to be set. after labor day it's very hard to dramatically change people's minds. >> perry, what do you think is the best political approach for the president as we move forward? also, does the transcription bill hold potentir potential fo on jobs? >> it probably won't dramatically change the picture. no president has won in modern times with unemployment higher than 7.4%. the president will have to make history because it's pretty clear after yesterday that the unemployment will be higher than that on election die. what you're seeing is him arguing, not that the economy is doing great or going gangbusters, but he'll do better creating jobs than romney. >> anne, how about the meter which hasn't moved too much in the swing states either in the latest polls and the president is hitting mitt romney in the ads as an outsourcer of jobs in key states. what do you think has more impact, the actual job numbers or the constant ad presence? >> that's a really good question. i think the answer probably lies somewhere in between them. you certainly saw president obama making the outsourcing case in ohio very heavily when he was there on this most recent bus trip. as you say, the ads are everywhere if you live in these states. i do think at a certain point voters tune out the ads. by the time november rolls around, they'll be bombarded by both sides. but in the early stage, they do obviously have an impact. if they didn't, they wouldn't spend the millions of dollars on it. i would say ultimately some combination of the two. >> perry, regardless of the numbers, the romney camp seems to have a hard time getting its message straight. this week, the big question over whether health care is a tax or penalty, is that just a temporary blip, or do you think it suggests a deeper problem? >> i do think it suggests a deeper problem. here's why. he's had basically a year on the campaign trail to explain his health care wall and how that is different from what the president signed, the health care law is very similar to one in massachusetts to the one the president signed three years later and romney has had a long time to explain it and hasn't. i think this will come back particularly in october you'll have three debates. my thought is romney will be pushed hard on, how is your health care law different than the one that was federally supported and how do you explain your position? and have you flip-flopped? they're going to ask him that question and it seems clear he'll have a hard time answering it based on what we've seen in the last week. >> anne, big voices in the republican camp suggest mr. romney should consider shaking up his staff and add more seasoned operatives. do you hear anything about that happening? >> well, we had a story actually in yesterday's paper by my colleague phil rucker who covers romney very closely who said they are in fact maybe enhancing staff, adding some people or giving people bho are informal advisers more formal enhanced rolls. that doesn't really qualify as a staff shake-up. i think the romney campaign isn't going to do that. it's not in his dna to change wholesale. i think they'll show their detractors they take the criticism seriously, trying to make changes but are they going to be the wholesale changes that are being called for, i suspect not. >> perry, one columnist in "time" magazine suggests that the campaign is making the right moves but that mitt romney is not the best campaigner. is that legit? >> i think that's absolutely legit. if you look at the campaign's staff, they've taken essentially a moderate governor who signed a universal health care bill andr most conservative primary and tea party infused primary, his staff helped him win that. the problems they're dealing with now is the fact that romney has flip froped on abortion, health care, et cetera. the problem in the campaign are mainly about the candidates' positions being really hard to reconcile with what they were four years ago. the staff is dog a great job raising money and keeping him on message. rupert murdoch sort of criticized the staff this weekend. what is he talking about? he's not seeing the same campaign i'm seeing. >> good to see you both, thank you. in britain, a new wave of arrests on the anniversary of a deadly act of terror all just weeks before the start of the summer olympics. this is the latest in the string of recent incidents that come amid tightened security. anna bell roberts is in london. >> afternoon, alex. today is the anniversary of 7/7, the day 52 were killed and hundreds more injured when a series of bombs ripped through the heart of london. now with three weeks to go until the start of of the olympics, obviously there is a determination to show there is no chance of anything like that happening here in july and august. in a clear sign that security is being tightened there have been a number of terror-related arrests in the past few arrests. three brothers were arrested near olympic park at this house following weeks of secret events. the door was blown 0 off its hinges as officers raided the house. police say this group was not targeting the olympics. and another seven people arrested in the midlands seemingly discovered by chance. their car was impounded during a routine check because it wasn't insured. when police searched it, they found hidden away several weapons and ammunition. this led to concern that a group may be planning a mumbai-style terror attack. there are also signs of nerves, one of britain's busiest roads were busy. a bus was evacuated after one reported smoke rising from a bag on a fellow traveler's lap. the passenger had simply been smoking and electronic cigarette. police insist this was a proportionate response. clear signs of tension rising and proof, if anywhere needed, how tight security will be for the olympics, for the first time since world war ii, the military will take control of the air space over london for a month. >> thank you so much. west coast headlines are next with the senate vote that could stop a bullet train in its tracks. how did it go? plus, the man who's called every of popular vote winner since 1992 and why he says presidential campaigns don't matter much. r for a more dependable clean. fewer pieces left behind. now who's the man? you both are. 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tell us about that. >> there are larger factors at work in making people vote the way they do. one is the partisanship, the way people identify with a party. the people watching this program probably have already made up their minds about who they're voting for, whether it's democrat or republican. the fact is, the economy is a much more decisive factor, how you feel about the economy and your perceptions of it are more important than how you feel about a specific candidate. >> okay. now, larry, are you at all skeptical of this theory? and what about entities like citizens united? that's new since the 1940s when this minimal effects model started up. and there's seemingly endless supply of cash to influence voters, does that change the situation? >> well, first, i am a subscriber to the theory that fundamentals drive elections. i'm delight thad paul focused on people like professor allen abram wits for whom i have great add miraculous. in fact, my crystal ball web site publishes him at least once a month. and this thursday we have the first glimpse of results of his model for 2012. so if you want to see the numbers, you can go to the crystal ball on thursday. but, look, alex, what allen and other modelers like jim campbell, professor jim campbell at sunni buffalo say, is that it's not that campaigns don't matter. of course campaigns have some effect. it's that the fundamentals drive the vast majority of the vote. most people don't believe this, but it's absolutely true. under 10% of the people who will actually show up at the polls in november right now are undecided. that's right, more than 90% of the people who vote have already made up their minds. will there be a few switchers? in 2008, 8% of the voters changed their minds. what was the net effect? zero. about the same number of obama supporters switched to mccain as mccain supporters switched to obama, and in the vast majority of cases they were switching back to their own partisan identification. >> well, you're absolutely right. it's always been said that elections come about dodown to middle 10% of the country. here are the fundamentals, a president's approval rating in midyear, the economic growth as evidenced by second quarter results and whether either party is seeking a third consecutive term in which case the incumbent party gets a bump if the answer is no, which of course would be in effect here. what about a swing state variable, larry? do you have to consider that? >> well, i think you have to consider the electoral college. allen's model, for example, showed correctly that al gore would win the popular vote. he won the popular vote in 2000 by one-of half of 1% of the national vote, approximately 5 thoert,000 votes. but there's this thing called the electoral college and four times in american history it's delivered the candidacy to someone who lost the pop lar vote. what are swing states? very competitive contests could go either way by a few votes in the electoral college. so gnarl lyou have to consider >> paul, here's an example of the theory when it comes to the poll. 91% of president obama's leaners went for him in 2008. but there is that 9%, right, that you have to consider, especially in a close election as this one is projected to be. >> yes, you do. and that's where campaigns matter. it's not that they don't matter at all, it's that they matter on the margins. right now they are contesting a subset of a subset of the voters. swing state -- independent voters in swing states, that's a very, very small percentage of the elect rat. millions and millions of people have already made up their minds. it's this small percentage of people who are sitting on the fence and aren't really even paying that much attention to the election that you have to worry about. >> so, larry, has the american electorate always been so set in stone? are swing voters are something of a myth? are they really just leaners? >> well, partisan identification has always driven a great deal of the vote, as has economic reality and war and peace and major scandal and other fundamental factors. but i do think we're more polarized today than we have been before. i do think a much larger percentage of the electorate has decided well in advance of an election. there have been other periods like this in american history, but think about most of the past centu century, the 20th century, for example. you had loads of conservative democrats who could either stick with their party or defect to the republicans. you had loads of liberal republicans who could stick with their party or defect to the democrats. hey, there are almost no conservative democrats left, almost no liberal republicans left. so you don't have the same kinds of fundamental effects within the general electorate that can produce a major shift even at the end of a race. >> paul, do campaigns recognize what you've written about here? do they ever of think the fruits of all of their labor, all the money poured into the political ads are wasted? >> i think they, if they were honest, would recognize that what they are contesting a is a ti is a tiny fraction of the electorate. they want to be the president of the entire country, not the president of swing voters in ohio or florida. but, in effect, the people they are seeking are the swing voters in ohio and florida, virginia and a few other battleground states. they recognize it, but, again, why stop and why make any issue of the fact that you are attempting to reach such a narrow, narrow segment of the population? which in effect is what they're doing. >> paul farhi and larry sabato, much thanks. coming up, must-see/must-avoid, katy perry's new movie, is it too raw and reveal too much? or does it not go far enough? that's ahead. web stories, we're ve got $250,000 users who could lose internet access on monday because of the virus. it was spread by a fraud ring shut down last november so the fbi says if your pc was infected and not scrubbed, it could lose internet access next week. this might affect 45,000 computerses here in the u.s., now to break. ♪ [ male announcer ] ok, so you're no marathon man. but thanks to the htc one x from at&t, with its built in beats audio, every note sounds amazingly clear. ...making it easy to get lost in the music... and, well... rio vista?!! 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"tech watch with"now, it will be smaller than an ipad but bigger than an iphone. get ready for the mini ipad. two reports claim apple is working on the mini with a screen less than 8 inches diagonally. after having so much success with kindle ereader and kindle fire, amazon is reportedly developing a smartphone. bloomberg says amazon is working with a manufacturer. today's list of number ones takes on a summer theme. first up, always a top destination for xraiks, but u.s. news ranks san francisco number one, calling it laid back and koez mow pol tan chblt the nation's capital is second followed by san diego, new york city and yellowstone park. it's rated the top amusement park, cedar point. the ohio amusement park has gotten top honors for 14 straight years. what is america's favorite flavor of ice cream? a new survey says vanilla, but last year the survey says chocolate. i'm going with that. billboard's summer song lists, what a surprise, we see "call me maybe" right at the top. i'm never going to get this song out of my head. those are your number ones here on "weekends with alex witt." play it away. ♪ call me neighbor ♪ before you came into my life i missed you so bad ♪ ♪ i missed you so bad ♪ i missed you so so bad ♪ before you came into my life i missed you so bad ♪ ♪ at least you know that mid grade dark roast forest fresh full tank brain freeze cake donettes rolling hot dogs bag of ice anti-freeze wash and dry diesel self-serve fix a flat jumper cables 5% cashback signup for 5% cashback at gas stations through september. it pays to discover. last season was the gulf's best tourism season in years. in florida we had more suntans... in alabama we had more beautiful blooms... in mississippi we had more good times... in louisiana we had more fun on the water. last season we broke all kinds of records on the gulf. this year we are out to do even better... and now is a great time to start. our beatches are even more relaxing... the fishing's great. so pick your favorite spot on the gulf... and come on down. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. this dangerous hot weather, the temperatures expected to surge past 100 degrees, easily breaking records. the relentdless heat wave of has been deadly. at least 46 people died over the past two weeks, much more rushed to hospitals with heat-related problems. the heat is fueling a drought for more than half of the u.s., farmers fearing they are going to lose up to 10% of their crop if rain doesn't come by monday. and the lack of rainfall is drying up the arkansas river to the lowest levels ever recorded. fish are struggling to stay alive in a shrinking puddle of water. they have very little oxygen. weather channel meteorologist jeff morrow is here with the forecast. hi, jeff. >> thank you, alex. well, let's take a look at a very hot forecast in the east it will be 101 in raleigh, it could approach 106 degrees in d.c., which would tie the all-time record high there. even in the big apple it's going to get up 99, close to 100. but late in the day we could see some severe weather here. meanwhile, watch out for a few lucky folks to get storms across the deep south. that will cool us off in places like new orleans but just make it steamier. a hot day in dallas, scorching in st. louis, minneapolis a little bit more pleasant. then, as we head to the west, what we calling the monsoon is starting to kick in, the moisture flow from the south, particularly on up through the four corners. that brings some showers and storms but also the threat of some lightning, which could spark more fires. 110 in phoenix, 72, though, in san francisco after some morning low clouds along the immediate california coast. should be a pretty nice day, portland a beautiful day, some of the nicest weather in the country, in the pacific northwest. back to you, alex. >> jeff morrow, many thanks. to politics and strategy talk. new talks this week for mitt romney to shake up his campaign from the "wall street journal's" editorial board to rupert murdoch's twitter report. big-name republicans want a change. joining me is robert trainen and nbc news political analyst and former pennsylvania governor ed rendell. hello, fellows. good to see you. >> good morning. >> robert, i'll begin with you. so the ba"wall street journal" correspondial board ran a strong criticism of the romney campaign. their first issue is the handling of the health care tax versus penalty debate. take a listen to this. >> the governor disagreed with the ruling of the court. he agreed with the dissent that was written by justice scalia, which very clearly stated that mandate was not a tax. >> well, the supreme court has the final word, and their final word is that obamacare is a tax. >> that was mitt romney on wednesday, roblt, if a senior adviser and candidate can't get together on this, what hope do they have on bigger issues? >> that's a good question. but i don't believe eric was wrong here. i believe he was reaffirming what governor romney's stance when governor romney was the governor of massachusetts and there was a state mandate. so i think what happen was that eric furnish strom came out and said what he said, the conservatives on capitol hill said, wait a minute, we're saying something kmreetdly different. we need to be singing from the same sheet of music, in the process, governor romney you need to change your position, which puts him in a wrong position. >> do you really think you can sell that? you're splitting hairs. >> of course. this is inside baseball. at the end of the day governor romney needs consistency and social conservatives to come to him on the polls. if in fact he doesn't have consistency and if in fact the base doesn't come out in november, he cannot win mathematically. so he cannot mess this up. >> when you say this is not consisty, is this flip-flop? >> well, unfortunately, alex, i think it is a flip-flop because again governor romney said this is not a tax when he was governor, now he's saying it is a tax. with all due respect, governor should have said, i disagree with the supreme court's decision, i believe this a penalty, this a position i've have ever since i was a governor. we respect fully, disagree on this, but we agree that obamacare should be overturn. >> the obama campaign jumped on eric furnstrom's comment. is this really where the election is going to be won, cement icks and not pol sicks? weigh in on the perspective? >> let me begin by saying i have no problem with what eric said here. that was brilliant. it is all inside baseball and it won't matter after labor day. what the "wall street journal" editorial board thinks, no offense guys, the average citizen couldn't give a hoot about. all this inside baseball, i can't remember a presidential campaign where people weren't calling for shake-ups at some point, even in successful campaigns. all inside baseball. but the one thing that robert said that's absolutely right is it does contribute to the image of a man who has no consistency, who doesn't believe in anything and who flip-flops across the board. what he just said is exactly the position that governor romney should take. look, the conservative base is coming at in my judgment to vote against president obama. what governor romney has to do to that 15% of the electorate undecided, he has got to give them a reason a vote for him. they're inclined to look elsewhere because they think things aren't going so well but he's got to convince them that he's a real leader and he's going to stand by what he believes in. and if he can't do that, none of this matters. but it is early. it is inside baseball. the election begins, in my judgment, with the convention speeches after labor day, the three debate. that's the whole ball of wax. >> robert, the governor mentions image here. another issue in the journal editorial issed fact mitt romney is running on his biography, something that doesn't easily translate that middle class voters. we had the waive waverunner optic at the same time he's railing against the economy. do you see that as a gaffe? >> i don't see it as a gaffe. i remind you rich people have ran for president before, john f. kerry in 2004 and rich people have become president, fdr, obviously john f. kennedy and so forth. i'm not exactly sure this is exactly about the image. it's about who can get the job done. at the end of the day, unfortunately, president obama will have an unemployment rate of roughly 8.2%. that is the fact. the question becomes whether or not that 15% governor rendell is speaking of specifically in pennsylvania, michigan florida and ohio, will they say, frankly, we don't care whether or not you're rich. what we care about is whether you have an alternative vision of president obama and thus in the process, can you fix this economy. >> governor, with regard to -- >> so we can have a waverunner, too. >> governor, with regard to the optics of vacation, we have the president and his family vacationing often in hawaii and martha's vineyard, certainly plenty of rich democrats out there. there was a guest i had on earlier who called the pictures of mitt romney kennedy-esque. is this the same thing or does barack obama nod need to try to draw in the middle class and lower class voters? he's already got them so he doesn't have the same problem of the optics mitt romney has. >> again, i think the optics question is mostly concerned to us. i don't think it concerns the average voter. i think they know mitt romney is rich. that's a calculation they've already made. you know, he couldn't identify what doughnuts were with. so the fact he's out there wave running isn't going to contribute anymore. they're doughnuts! he couldn't tell the name for doughnuts. look, in the end, i think robert is exactly right. the voters are going to decide this on serious issues. who has the best plans? that's the part of the "wall street journal" editorial i think is the most telling. mitt romney can't just say, i'm going to repeal obamacare. he's going to have to lay out for the american people what his solution is. he can't just say, president obama has failed on the economy. he's got to lay out something better than trickle-down economics as a plan for turning the economy around. so that's the test for the campaign. that's the real stuff that matters to voters. the rest of this is fun for us and, you know, we have great fun with it, but, in the end i don't think it matters. i think it matters what their plans are on the real issues that concern the electorate. >> well, funnel for me to talk to the both of you. robert and governor ed rendell, thanks so much. >> thank you. developing now, it's election day in libya. voters in tripoli and other cities are casting ballots for members of a new parliament in the first election since the ouster of moammar gadhafi. protestors burned ballots and called for a boycott of the vote there. martin fletcher is covering the vote from cairo. martin, how is the vote going? >> reporter: well, it's going very well. a big day in libya. imagine 17 months ago the libyans were walking across the desert in rubber sandals carrying a pistol to overthrow moammar gadhafi. it succeeded they murder him. and today is what it's all about, the first day in democracy in libya, the first election there in almost 60 years. so you can imagine what it means to the people here. most of the people voted today have never voted before in their lives, never even seen a ballot box. given those problems, it all went very well. the observers say there's been very little trouble in tripoli. there has been trouble elsewhere, though. there's been severe attacks on some of the polling stations yesterday, friday there was an attack by some gunmen on a helicopter carrying election workers. they killed one person and another person, by the way, a voter was killed just a few minutes ago in the east of the country. so there's been trouble. 101 polling stations could not open today because of the trouble, but the observers there say 94% of all polling stations in libya were functioning. they don't know yet what the turnout was. we'll find out soon. but of the 2.8 million voters in libya, a country of only 600 million people, it seems that t election has been calm, a great success in democracy so far in libya today. >> martin, do you have a percentage of those 2.8 that are potential voters? do you get an idea whether it's 50% or because of the passion of the first niem 60 years you're looki ing at 80%, 90% turnout? >> reporter: i think it's too early to say. they say it will be a heavy turnout. as i said, it's the first time people have voted, the polls open at 8:00 a.m., close at 8:00 p.m. they expect the preliminary results tomorrow, sunday, and final results monday at the earliest. but it does seem that a lot of people in libya have been exercising their right to vote for the first time in their lives. what a success for the revolution, alex. >> absolutely. nbc's martin fletcher in cairo, thank you. now to number four on our first five web stories, british airways and its plan to google passengers. reports out of london say staff will use ipads to search customer names and find out what specific passengers look like so these passengers can be specifically greeted. it's part of a plan to improve customer service. ... and he says, "under the mattress." souse le matelas. ( laughter ) why's the new guy sending me emails from paris ? paris, france ? verizon's 4g lte devices are global-ready. plus, global data for just $25. only from verizon. you want to save money on car insurance? no problem. you want to save money on rv insurance? no problem. you want to save money on motorcycle insurance? no problem. you want to find a place to park all these things? fuggedaboud it. this is new york. hey little guy, wake up! aw, come off it mate! geico. saving people money on more than just car insurance. ♪ blister in the summer in today's then and now, the historic announcement made by president ronald reagan made this day in 1981, 31 years ago today sandra day o'connor became the first woman nominated to the u.s. supreme court. president reagan described her as a person for all seasons. judge o'connor told the president she was extremely honored. >> i will do my best to serve the court and this nation in a manner that will bring credit to the president, to my family, and to all the people of this great nation. >> here's john chancellor from the "nbc nightly news" with perspective on the nomination's significance. >> the supreme court held its first session in 1790 and, since, 101 men have served on it. it took 45 years for the first catholic to be appointed, 126 years for the first jew, 177 years for the first and only black and, if judge o'connor is confirmed, it will have taken 191 years for the court to get its first woman. >> well, justice o'connor was sworn in later that year. in 1993, ruth bader ginsburg game became the first jewish woman, in 2009 soto meier became the first hispanic woman and elena kagan the fourth justice. now so must see, must avoid. in theaters this week, we get a look backstage at starld om in katy perry park of me. >> just singing in the shower, along the streets of santa barbara. so i asked for a guitar. that's when i really started writing songs. >> this documentary follows perry on her first world tour and offers a glimpse of her life on and off stage. kim sarafin zbroin joins me to break down the best of the box office. good day to you. >> thank you very much. >> what do you think of this one, must see or must avoid. >> i love her so i think must see. i think a lot of people, even if you're not a fan of hers, will like this movie. it's definitely like the concert movies of justin bieber, miley cyrus, we've seen these before, but it gives you a glimpse into her background. we know she grew up with pentecost al minister parents. it gives you a sense of how she grew up, who she is now. it does interviews backstage and you get a sense of her, the candy cotton candy katy perry we know but it also chronicles the breakup with russell brand as this was happening during the concert. you see a lot of emotion from her backstage. it gives you a little bit more in-depth view than maybe with the other concert films. i'll say must see. it's a female empowerment movie. if you like her music, you'll like this one. >> it's on my list for my kids. who about oliver stone's film "savages." pretty gritty on this one. >> yeah. i would say must see if you like oliver stone movies, definitely goes back to his more gritty roots, those kind of films. but must avoid if you're not ready for the kind of, well, savage scenes in it. it's definitely violent, bloody, gory. there's a lot of maybe even excessive violence in it. but good story telling based on the novel and the performances are really good, from salma hay hayek. she's just the star of this film. she's very brutal but great. blake lively is really good, beniece yoe dell tore row plays that villain he's good at. the performance is great, but be forewarned. it's very violent. >> how about a standout on the festival film circuit called "beasts of the southern wild," it's set in louisiana on the eve of a massive storm. how do you see that one playing out? >> it's interesting because it was just a star at sundance, cannes, it's gotten so much attention. so many are saying, could this make it to the oscars? could it be an indie film recognized at the oscars? the young 9-year-old actress, first-time actress, the father/daughter team are both first-time actors. it's really good, sort of has elements of mark twain and maurice sen dak. it has the fantasy element but also some gritty elements, takes place on the outskirts of new orleans, this girl is trying to save her community, save her father and save the world. >> so must see? >> i would say must see for sure. >> kim shgt thanks as always. to number five on our first five web alert. taylor swift and patrick schwarzenegger may be becoming an item. the singer was invited to celebrate the fourth of july at hyannisport. swift reportedly thinks the 18-year-old schwarzenegger is cute. well, he is. ♪ it's all right [ male announcer ] fighting pepperoni heartburn and pepperoni breath? fight both fast with new tums freshers! concentrated relief that goes to work in seconds and freshens breath. new tums freshers. ♪ tum...tum...tum...tum... tums! ♪ [ male announcer ] fast relief, fresh breath, all in a pocket sized pack. ♪ the days go by new today, an advocacy group targeting president obama is rushing tv ads to air about the new jobs report in nine key states, including north carolina. both president obama and republican challenger mitt romney may spend a lot of time and money in the fall election campaigning for the north carolina 15 electoral votes. joining me is mary curtis who writes the "she the people" blog at "the washington post." welcome, mary. >> hi. >> talk about crossroads gps about to spend $2.7 million on tv ads in north carolina all about the jobs where the unemployment rate is more than a point higher than the national rate, standing at about 9.4%. how much do you think that will impact the election there? >> well, i think that is giving the gop some hope here in north caroli carolina. let's face it, the economy is the issue. they see this and they're making ads. you've already seen the ad wars here in north carolina saying, mitt romney has a business background and he can do better for nk. a north carolina. they're also finding heart in looking at the 2010 elections in which their base came out strong and gave them a majority in the state legislature. they're seeing a lot of inroads and they're very hopeful. >> let's look back to 2008, when then-senator obama beat senator mccain in north carolina on election night by just about 14,000 votes. do you think he can do that again? do you think it would be that thin of margin again in either direction? >> well, the democrats certainly aren't giving up. they have really opened 16 offices around the state for obama. they know that turnout is the key, and they realize how hard they had to work for that slim margin and they know it's going to be close. all the polls have been close. they know that they have a demographic change, that they think works in their favor in north carolina, with an increase in hispanic voters and african-americans and also in all the newcomers coming into the state. so they're really going after this base and they think that they can do it. >> what do you think about the rah-rah comes around september 5-7 when they're there in charlotte, all the democrats for the convention? do you think that will help as well, given that's that much closer to actual election day? >> well, you can bet that the democrats are going to use this september 4th through 6th convention as an organizer tool for the campaign. and they've also bookended the convention with events to bring in the public. labor day, the day before the start, they'll have a big carolina fest downtown, when they call uptown in charlotte rg hoping to draw people from the carolinas, from the south and also from virginia, the neighboring swing state. and the last day he's going to be giving, of course, his acceptance speech at bank of america stadium which holds more than 70,000. so they hope he'll give this speech and then they'll go out with enthusiasm, the base will be generated and maybe pick up some new supporters. >> mary, in terms of the african-american vote, the recent poll showed 76% of the vote to the president but 20% to mitt romney. really? that seems high. is it? >> yes, it is. even the folks who did the poll released a caveat with the poll saying, you know, we had a small sample. we don't exactly understand these numbers and maybe they're not correct. so even they had some doubts. but i do think the romney people see a little bit of an opportunity to make some inroads. they feel, you know, african-americans have been disproportionately affected by the unemployment rate and maybe they'll see that mitt romney could do better for them. on the other hand, i don't think democrats this poll that seriously. african-americans gave barack obama 95% of the vote in 2008, and they're making outreach, the obama campaign, through a barbershop and beauty parlor outreach where you can get voter registration and campaign material. they have a lot of surrogates and celebrities coming through, folks like angela bassett, alfre woodward was here to promo. i think they're really thinking this base will remain loyal and poll was a little bit of an outlier. >> mary curtis, look forward to seeing you again. thanks. >> you bet. office politics with nbc latinos chris pena. we'll talk about the effect of president obama's announcement on immigration, plus my obsession with margaritas. i admit it. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. this is new york state. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs. a place where innovation meets determination... and businesses lead the world. the new new york works for business. find out how it can work for yours at thenewny.com. [ male announcer ] we believe small things can make a big difference. like how a little oil from here can be such a big thing in an old friend's life. purina one discovered that by blending enhanced botanical oils into our food, we can help brighten an old dog's mind so he's up to his old tricks. with this kind of thinking going into our food, imagine all the goodness that can come out of it. just one way we're making the world a better place... one pet at a time. vibrant maturity. from purina one smartblend. it's about time we made our homes work for us. so let's make our dryers do the ironing. have our fridges cater our parties. and tell our ranges to whip up dinner. let's plug in to summer savings before they're gone... ...without wasting an ounce of energy with smart machines that turn housework into house play. more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. right now, save $600 on this maytag french door refrigerator, just $1,598. . good day, everyone. welcome to "weekends with alex witt." just past 1:00 on the east coast, 10:00 a.m. out west. the heat wave could break records again today, and there are deadly results. so far at least 46 people have died just in the past two weeks. outside washington, d.c., officials are investigating whether the heat warped some train tracks causing a metro train to derail yesterday fortunately no one was hurt. more than 10,000 people suffering through a seventh day without power in several mid-atlantic states. since last week's severe storms. the utility companies are urging people to re-report their outages. and the record setting drought is killing trees. look at arkansas, the leaves turning brown and they are already falling to the ground. nbc's michelle franzen is in new york's central park where the temperatures could reach triple digits today if they haven't already. how is it feeling out there, michelle? >> reporter: yeah, we're in the 90s, alex, and we're starting to feel it. it's a little hot here even in the shade. take a look out back here at the sheep's meadow in central park, a lot of people still coming out at this hour. they are seeking out this heat, in the 90s but that heat index is feeling more like closer to the 100s we're expecting, the triple digit feel later on today. but we're also expected to get a little bit of relief coming in, possible thunderstorms moving in this afternoon. that would bring relief, but, of course, new york city has been dealing with this heat wave, temperatures 90-plus for the last few days. they're hoping to get that break. elsewhere in the area, it's not so much the case. they have been dealing with triple digit heat in the midwest, st. louis and other areas for ten days straight. looking at another hot day today. many people in central park came out early trying to beat the heat, whether it was runners or people getting their dogs out for a quick walk. >> we came into the park and sat down and started brushing and we'll probably get up and leave because it's just too, too much for him. >> i did 27 holes of golf yesterday so i didn't drop from that. i won't drop from this. >> i'm fine with. you know, i love it and i'll be at the beach this afternoon. >> reporter: new yorkers, of course, taking that heat in stride as they do during that winter snowstorm that we're always out here on as well. but there's some serious as pebl pekts to this heat wave. a lot of people, even though they're used to exercising and the heat, there are health precautions that many health experts are saying they should heed, especially with this humidity and the heat index, that they should definitely stay hydrated and stay inside if they can. alex? >> pets, the very young, elderly, all take very good care. michelle franzen, many thanks. now let's check today's hot forecast along with the stormy weather that will bring some rain, hail and cooldown, weather channel meteorologist jen carfagno is here with more. hi, jen. >> alex, thank you. yes, change is finally coming. temperatures are finally going to get back to average, if not even below average, but it will take some storms to get there. let's go through it. we've got this big ridge of high pressure in our jet stream. who would have known that ridge and trough would be such a part of our vocabulary. but we're going to change from a ridge to a trough, meaning hot to cool. by early next week, we have this ridge that breaks down and a trough develops in the east and temperatures go back to normal. we're going to find temperatures back to the 80s monday, you've never wanted monday to come so badly. it's going to come with a price. we have the risk of thunderstorms and we'll see that today stretching from parts of the midwest and the great plains here all the way into the northeast, storms firing into the evening. i've got the timing of that here for the northeast, tll be some storms possibly through the afternoon of and a better chance for them into the evening. so after 4:00, 5:00, storms will be firing in new york straight, southern new england, and into the late evening hours there will be chances for storms into pennsylvania and then also into new jersey as well. tomorrow another risk of storms watching a front in the area. again, that trough of low pressure, the jet stream energy heading further south. you'll see storms firing from nashville to louisville to cincinnati, roanoke, richmond, d.c. storms come in but they break down the heat and monday is looking much, much better. alex, back to you. >> bring on monday. thanks, jen. you can monitor the latest heat warnings and advisories, plus track the records being broken there on weather dol. to front page politics, gop volunteers out in full force right now for so-called super saturday. the romney camp is acting as if today is the day before the presidential election with thousands of volunteers calling and handing out flyers to hundreds of thousands of swing state voters. meantime, former presidential candidate jon huntsman says he's skipping the republican convention in tampa next month because of the party's politics and policy positions. the former utah governor says he won't attend any future conventions until the gop, quote, focuses on a bigger, bolder, more confident future for the united states. in his weekly address today, obama is touting the transportation and student loan bill he just signed into law. >> first it will keep thousands of construction workers on the job, rebuilding our nation's infrastructure. second, it will keep interest rates on federal student loans from doubling this year. which would have hit more than 7 million students with about $1,000 more on their loan payments. >> joining me from our front page politics, white house reporter david knack muir ra and molly ball for the atlantic. good to see you both. >> hi, alex. >> david, you took the president's bus tour through ohio and pennsylvania. how did the white house folks react to the economic news, and how was he received generally speaking by some of the key voters in the swing states here? >> well, alex, the jobs news was not good for the white house, it hasn't been good for the last few months but the white house is trying to be consistent, saying let's take the long view, it's been 28 consecutive months of job growth, even though not enough. what people are most concerned about are their communities, their neighbors and own situations. he was in two critical swing states, where ohio and pennsylvania where the unemployment rate is a little lower and the president touched on themes which he thinks would appeal to the voters, my add anyone straigs helped bail out the auto industry. these are heavily unionized area. these are people who came out, strong democratic areas, for him, and so that's what this bus tour was for. you saw him spending a lot of time stopping at restaurants, at bakeries buying cookies, spending time with ordinary folks, trying to appeal to the middle class. so the president is saying, loo being, you have a choice in this election, if you want to vote for me, you'll have an administration that continues to invest in infrastructure, health care and education. that's the message he's starting to send. >> molly, while reading your atlantic.com report, the first thing i highlighted was the subtitle which reads, here aus your 2012 presidential campaign in a nutshell. the unrepentant rich guy versus the president drowning in bad economic news. so what is that, an oversimplification but you're boiling it down to nuts and bolt there's? >> yeah, absolutely. it is an oversimplification. that's what in a nutshell means but it was striking to me. i was writing about the responses of two candidates, comparing and contrasting them when the jobs numbers came out. you had romney who's been on vacation for a while now coming to a hardware store in a town in new hampshire near his lavish estate, i saw someone joked on twitter it was as if he had sort of stepped off his yacht to shake his fist and say, this economy is unacceptable and get back on his yacht. and he got asked about his vacation and he said, well, i hope more americans can take vacations when i'm president and things get better. then you look, as david was talking about, the president gave a very long speech, he spoke for about 40 minutes ostensibly in response to the numbers but he waned to talk about absolutely anything else. in the 40 minutes, he mentioned the job numbers once in a single sentence and the rest of the speech was about absolutely anything else he could think of, desperately trying to change the subject. they've tried to respond consistently to the bad jobs reports over and over. the problem with that is it accumulates. it begins to be a trend and i think people get more and more restless as they think, how much longer are you going to sort of stay the course and say, all we have to do is ride this out, when things are not getting better? >> you know, david, i want to pick up on that which molly is saying what the president is saying publicly versus what you may know with the insiders there at the white house. to what extent are they going to latch on to jobs numbers and i guess have a sense that it's going to get any better between now and november? is there any read on that? >> i think they're really running out of time, a.m. elex. they know this. this isn't just this year. you've seen it the last few years. you see hope in the winter months with better job growth. we saw it this last winter, the jobs up near 200,000, then drops off in summer. summer is a slow period. i think there's some hope maybe that at this point people sort of get it where the economy is and the president's really trying to say, look, you know, let's look at what you came from four years ago when you elected me. i've taken you as best i can and let me finish the job. he talks a lot about this being the worse recession since the great depression, sort of the hole that the country faced at the time he was elected and how much farther they still need to go. but he's saying, again, fu want to go back to policies of past, that's what romney represents. i'm going to continue to invest in these things that appeal to middle class voters. he's really making that conscious effort to say that. >> molly, i'm curious about the political calculation of having seen the romney family on vacation for the past week. how do you see that? >> gosh, it beetds me. i talk to a lot of republicans who really can't believe he has spent all of this time ton this vacation, being photograph of on jet skis and frolicking with his family, especially the contrast when the jobs number is coming out and he's talking about the misery and the pain that americans feel. he's talking about the fact that a lot of people can't afford to take a vacation, and yet a lot of people have been comparing it to the images of john kerry back in 2004. is it going to just exacerbate this image of him as out of touch or at least as being sort of cushioned from the real pain of what's going on in america by this lifestyle that he can afford that most people can't. >> yeah. >> so i really don't have a good political justification except that maybe it softens his image a bit to see him out there with his family, to see him with his kids and his grand kit kids. it does appear to be a bit of a working vacation. it is sort of the summer doldrums in campaign time. people aren't paining attention that much. it gives him an opportunity to regroup and strategize and look forward. >> glad you two are paying attention, good to see you. ahead, the health care law, could it be a moneymaker? one economist says give it a chance. and in office politics i talk immigration with nbc lat o latino.com's chris pena. i bought the car because of its efficiency. i bought the car because i could eliminate gas from my budget. i don't spend money on gasoline. it's been 4,000 miles since my last trip to the gas station. it's pretty great. i get a bunch of kids waving at me... giving me the thumbs up. it's always a gratifying experience. it makes me feel good about my car. i absolutely love my chevy volt. ♪ diarrhea, gas or bloating? get ahead of it! one phillips' colon health probiotic cap a day helps defend against digestive issues with three strains of good bacteria. hit me! [ female announcer ] live the regular life. phillips'. . a new poll out from gallup takes a look at what impact americans think the health care reform law will have on the national economy. it finds 46% thinks the law will hurt the economy while 37% think it will help. with the majority of the law yet to go into effect, it's really all speculation at this point. it is an issue, my next guest looked at in a recent op-ed in the "new york times" titled giving health care a chance to evol evolve. joining me is robert frank, professor of economics. robert, thank you for being here. >> nice to be here, alex. >> so this first half of your piece provides a really simple explanation of why the current health care system does not work and how it came to be. give us a very short version here. >> okay, i think every economist begins with the idea that private insurance markets are, if anything, the worst possible business model for providing health coverage. the basic problem is that, if an insurance company can predict that you're going to need expensive care, they're not going to sell you a policy. any company that can exclude people who are likely to need care can offer lower rates and insure only healthy people. and what that means, in the end, is that the very people who most need health coverage, the ones who will be bankrupted by not having it, are the same ones who won't be able to get it under a private insurance model. that's why we had to do something. >> okay. you write that there are grounds for optimism, though, over how the reforms will eventually play out. why is that? >> well, let's begin with the fact that the law was a mess but it was a mess really only because they had to start with the current employee/employer funded health care systems that most americans have. that was a historical accident that we had health coverage provided in that manner, but most people who have it say they're reasonably satisfied with it. so i think the drafters of the legislation simply couldn't adopt one of of the simpler, more efficient models that most other industrial countries use, single payor systems of one kind or another, they had to build something on top of the employer-provided health insurance system. and what we're going to see now is a gradual transition away from that system toward modes of providing care that i think will make a lot more sense for people. i'm betting at this stage that the private knot for profit broad based health care clinic, something modeled along the lines of the mayo clinic or the cleveland clinic or kaiser permanente will end up being the winning model of care provision. that's not certain obviously at this stage. we'll wait and see what emerges. >> so, robert, you don't think we're in unprecedented territory here? you think that will serve as a model? >> oh, i think there are some good models out there and that the stage is now set for people to get the coverage that they couldn't get under the old system. and we will let the best plan win in the new system. they're required to offer coverage on nondiscriminatory terms, they can't deny you coverage if you have preexisting conditions. so the basic problem with private insurance is now solved, the adverse election problem has been solved by the law that way, and now it's just a question of which mode of care provision will end up being the most efficient and gradually i think we'll evolve toward that one. >> robert, you heard the poll i mentioned a few moments ago with 46% of the majority thinking that the health care law is going to hurt the national economy. as an economist, do you think that's true? is there going to be the money to pay for what we need? >> i think a poll of voters asking what they think the effect of of the health care law will be on the economy is not a very good way to figure out what the effect will be. they've heard hostile advertisements for the last two years about the health care law. nobody really knows what's in it. most people don't have an informed opinion. >> then what do you think? >> the congressional budget office, which has actually studied the detailed provisions of the law, says the law will reduce costs over the next decade. that seems the likely outcome, and the law going forward has provisions for much greater competition for the consumer's dollar, and we know that in every other sector of the economy, when there's more competition for your dollar, the firms step up and provide better quality at lower prices. there's every of reason to expect that to happen here, too. >> robert frank from cornell, we appreciate your time. thank you. >> it's a pleasure. in a moment, the price of vanity. during these tough economic times, are americans willing to pay up to look good? ♪ the glamorous mouth may startf as an irritant. it'll cause cavities, bad breath. patients will try and deal with it by drinking water. water will work for a few seconds but if you're not drinking it, it's going to get dry again. i recommend biotene. all the biotene products like the oral rinse...the sprays have enzymes in them. the whole formulation just works very well. it leaves the mouth feeling fresh. if i'm happy with the results and my patients are happy with the results, i don't need to look any farther. there it is ! there it is ! where ? where ? it's getting away ! where is it ? it's gone. we'll find it. any day can be an adventure. that's why we got a subaru. love wherever the road takes you. wow, there it is. now to these three big money headlines, stuck in neutral? price hike. and we're so vain. consumer expert regina lewis will sort through all of this for us. good day to you. >> thanks. >> let's start with the job report. any silver linings when you look deeper into the numbers? >> i wish i could say yes. certainly the private sector is where the lion's share of the jobs are being created. it offset a loss of government jobs. keep in mind the 80,000 net jobs gained includes temporary workers. i'm afraid the deep dive reveals the normal conversion rate for temporary workers who then get offered a full-time position is 45% by some estimates. right now it's 30%. that's a clear indicator that employers are skittish about hiring. >> what about the drought conditions across this country? they're expected to take a toll on our wallets when we go to the grocery store. by how much are you thinking? >> the u.s. agriculture department is predicting a 3.5% increase across the board, cheese and crackers, cereal, milk, you name it. and a 10% increase in meat costs. this all tracks back to corn and soybe soybeans. of course we're talking about the bread basket states where the lion's share of growing is, and it affects all prices. also, you recall, alex, the food versus fuel debate. keep in mind, a lot of that corn, the first allotment goes to ethanol production. so farmers and ranchers are really squeezed here. some of the cattle are getting heatstroke and others are just trying to avoid the high cost of feeding them and in some cases getting rid of some of their herds. >> yikes. what about the hard times taking their toll on the products everywhere it seems in the beauty aisle. what about vanity make it's recessionproof? >> it's called the lipstick effect and it's been around since the great depression. it's really striking. right now sales of skin care, makeup, fragrance, up 11% in this country, and double digit growth in places like china, argentine na, mexico it's a global phenomenon. it's been studied forever but a new university study indicates it's not just because it's an affordable luxury but perhaps when the going gets tough, women don't want to go it alone. so they're willing to spend on things that make them more attractive, the thinking being, by extension, it will help attract a mate. >> interesting. >> it is. >> regina lewis, thank you so much. >> sure. she's done it again. sarena williams has wrapped up her fifth wimbledon title tying her sister venus for wimbledon hardware, also her 14th major title. congratulations. t pack. it splits in to two smaller, sleeker packs that fit almost anywhere so you can take them everywhere. dentyne split to fit. practice safe breath. the global ready one ? 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( laughter ) why's the new guy sending me emails from paris ? paris, france ? verizon's 4g lte devices are global-ready. plus, global data for just $25. only from verizon. welcome back to "weekends with alex witt, 31 past the hour. it's time for newer fast five headlines. in libya, the vote has begun in the first election since the overthrow and murder of moammar gadhafi. polling stations are voting, and all are searched amid fear of violence. hillary clinton made an unannounced visit to afghanistan today and met are hamid karzai. afghanistan was named a major non-nato ally signalingi ining w partnership with that country. in florida, an attorney for george zbim zimmerman says his client is very happy to be out of jail. he has a curfew, is being electronically monitored and is not allowed to open a bank account nor go to an airport. in central illinois a 1-year-old is being recovered after he was bitten by a python. the snake attacked the baby while he was sleeping. his father heard some commotion, ran in and found that snake wrapped around the baby's foot. imagine how frightening that was. no one knows how the snake got into the apartment. the boy will be okay. in spain, several people have already been hurt in this year's running of the bulls. one person was gored in the leg, four others suffered minor injuries and many more bumps and r and bruises are likely ahead over the next seven days. those are your fast five headlines. back to the dangerous and deadly weather gripping much of this country today. at least 46 people have died from the heat in the past two weeks. and people in the mid-atlantic are spending a seventh day without power from last week's storms. right now temperatures are forecasted for the triple digits and likely to break all kinds of records. afternoon storms could bring some relief throughout the northeast. however, more than 4,000 record highs were set in the month of june alone. that along with powerful storms and tremendous wildfires, so the question at hand is, is this weather part of something bigger? dr. reese halter is here to shed some light on all this. with a hello to you, dr. lease, the million-dollar question, why is this happening? >> well, alex, you know, with rising greenhouse gases, we're seeing these intense droughts and droughts beget wildfires and the heat and the winds are just driving these fires. for instance, the waldo fire is burning at 1500 degrees, alex. these are wild temperatures, you know? >> yes, 1500 degrees, how do you begin to fight that. but why this prolonged heat wave, reese? why is this happening? >> well, these patterns are setting in as all of the computer models have told us, alex, and, you know, here's what we can do on the ground. we can observe what's happening and these bark beetles are showing us across western north america that change is really here. these are beetles that live naturally in the forest, and they're kept in check with cold winter temperatures. they haven't happened for up to 15 years, and alex there may be well over a trillion of these beetles. and the numbers i've heard, they may have killed up to 30 billion mature trees. now, just to put this into perspective, one metric ton of wood has sucked up 1.5 metric tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and it gives us oxygen. when the trees die, not only are they not sucking co2 out of the air and giving us oxygen, they're starting to decompose and add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. so really a bad thing that's happening, alex. >> reese, you know all these kinds of details, but, overall, in simple terms, is this a result of global warming? >> yes. absolutely. the beetles are killing the forests. the forests are our life support system to balance greenhouse gases. the forests are dying. more greenhouse gases are being released. yeah. no, this is all part of a cycle. >> so when you talk about these beetles, for example, is this as a result of something that's manmade, or is this nature? i mean, can you put an attribution there for global warming? >> yes. i mean, what it's done, alex, is it's removed nature's natural check, cold temperatures. the warm temperatures have allowed the beetle to take off. as a matter of fact, in colorado the beetles are now breeding two generations in a year. they've doubled their life cycles. you know, for most people they're thinking, oh, this is just some biology, whatever. no, it isn't, because we're talking about the water cycle. we're talking about the snowpacks that, with rising temperatures, are melting quicker and forest fire seasons are lasting longer. and that water in southern colorado mountains feeds 150 million people with our agriculture water, with our drinking water, and mighty industry. so it's all connected here. >> absolutely you're making a very good case how this is all just one giant circle of life, to sound rather simplistic. dr. reese halter, thank you very much. if you haven't heard our big news here at msnbc, nbc lati latino.com launched this week. in office politics i talked to the man in charge of it all, chris pena. our conversation starts with gallup poll numbers showing immigration is latinos' number three concern behind health care and unemployment. i asked chris if that's surprising. >> it's not so much that every latino in america, when you're talking about a population of 50.5 million, is affected by immigration. but there's a certain amount of empathy for those who are. and the fact or the possibility that even though you may be a documented immigrant and be a united states citizen that you may be perceived as undocumented. so it's -- the rhetoric about immigration and the inaction that has happened on a legislative level has caused allah teen knows to basically rally around the topic, especially during this election when folks are looking for answers to that particular topic. >> what is the effect of the obama administration's announcement on immigration? >> for myself and for my brothers and sisters, latinos lauded that announcement because he took executive action to really circumvent what was not happening on the legislative side and, in turn, creating a legal path for many latinos in this country under the age of 30. >> do you think as a whole the latino community cares if it's politically motivated or not as long as it's moving toward something like a d.r.e.a.m. act being implemented? >> i don't think so. i think at the end of the day when you look at the whole population, which, by the way, it's not a homogenous population, but this is one issue people come together on, they're in agreement that something has to be done not just for the d.r.e.a.m. act but for immigration. the d.r.e.a.m. act is a more strong rallying point because these are young people we're talking about and young people who, through no fault of their own, were brought to the united states and have done great things in this country. >> do you think the president's plan is profound enough to literally secure the latino vote for the democrats for another generation? or is that oversimplifying it? >> it's a little bit of a generalizati generalization, but if you look at the polls, the president is doing very well with the latino population. you really have to look at how fragmented we are in this country in the latino group. it is 50.5 million so if you look at the aggregate numbers, 16% of the population, one out of every six people in this country is latino. but if you drill down a little bit more, 65% of that group originates from mexico, we have large pockets from the caribbean. i was born in the dominican republic and emigrated here in 1981. you have a significant puerto rican population, which in a twist are american citizens. you have a cuban population that came here as exiles and not immigrants. so it's a very nuanced group and there's not a realion si one-size-fits-all policy. >> how much do you feel that, then, that there are these different pockets? >> when you look at half of the population is in two states, essential, almost 50% in california and texas. so you're talking about -- >> not florida? >> not florida. >> cuban. >> cuban. but 25 million latinos in this country live in two states. when it comes to november, those voters in california and texas are essentially negated because california is going to go blue, and texas is going to go red. so what other states to focus on? florida, colorado, and new mexico, and nevada. and if you want to add another wrinkle to it, nevada and new mexico both have latino governor whoz a s who are republicans. >> it's also a huge deal what you're doing with nbc latino.com. >> we are the basis of hispanic america, and this is our new home. >> we put a lot of time and energy into building a property that would be reflective of the hispanic-american experience, and we -- what we see is that latinos are part of the fabric of america. who is going to tell that story? so we had this opportunity with a blank canvas do build a brand-new property that would really put latinos first and foremost, front and center. it's a segment that's really been underserved. we also focus on lifestyle categories so that's why we have a parenting and family section and we have an education section. >> that's great. >> and we have a people section where -- >> businesses, too? >> businesses. and then food. because we could probably just have a conversation here about food and latinos are also very passionate about it. >> you know my favorite i guess mexican/latino food is? >> what/? >> it's a drink called a margarita. >> that's a good one, easy to make. >> i'm taulz talking about it. more of our conversation with chris pena tomorrow at this time. he'll talk about the latino groups that mitt romney could reach and the effect of a potential marco rubio veep pick. to see more about our new web site, go to nbc latino.com. it's really slick, looks fabulous. next up, the big three. it's a story about jobs and jet skis. you're watching "weekends with alex witt." it's about time we made our homes work for us. so let's make our dryers do the ironing. have our fridges cater our parties. and tell our ranges to whip up dinner. let's plug in to summer savings before they're gone... ...without wasting an ounce of energy with smart machines that turn housework into house play. more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. right now, save $600 on this maytag french door refrigerator, just $1,598. not financially. so we switched to the bargain detergent but i found myself using three times more than you're supposed to and the clothes still weren't as clean as with tide. so we're back to tide. they're cuter in clean clothes. thanks, honey. yeah. you suck at folding. [ laughs ] [ female announcer ] just one dose of tide original liquid helps remove food stains better than an entire 40 load bottle of the leading liquid bargain brand. that's my tide. what's yours? it's time for the big three. and today's topics, economic story lines, holiday happenings, best week, worst week. let's bring in my panel, msnbc contributor and republican strategist susan del percio, democratic strategist and former national press secretary for the dccc, doug thorn elle and deputy national political editor for "the washington post," anne kornblut. i'll reach out to you first, anne. first to the economic story lines with 80,000 jobs out in june, unemployment rate holding 8.2%, what is the line inside the white house on these numbers? is there anything to work with in the numbers or are they quietly concerned? >> well, obviously they're concerned. what they said yesterday is that this is of course what they've expected. it's not all that different from some numbers we've seen in the recent past, not nearly as good as it was at the beginning of the year. but not bad as it could have become. so they didn't act all that surprised and, to be honest, given what the week has been, it's a holiday week, a lot of people on vacation, they might actually get something of a pass this time. i don't think they're going to get as much of a pass the next few. and as you saw governor romney did his best to try and take advantage of it. >> yeah. doug, how about you? how concerned do you think they are in the white house today? i mean, is there a number that the president's advisers think they need to reach for to have certain reelection, and is 8.2% unemployment that number? >> well, look, four months before the election you obviously are worried about a lot of things. i think the economy is chief among them for the obama campaign. i don't think there's a magic number. i think a lot of tv is looking at trend looks and being able to demonstrate to the american people that things are getting better and that's largely due to the hard work of the obama policies. and i think they're dog what they can to really get out there and aggressively define romney, his work at bain, his time as massachusetts governor. i think if you look at kind of the polling right now, everyone talked about how bad the job numbers were last month, but the president is actually been resilient in terms of where he is. he's still ahead of romney both nationally and in states. i think you have to like the fact they aren't taking this lying down. they're fighting back and i think it's largely helped them going head-to-head so far with romney in terms of being able to define him early. but i don't think there's a real magic number. >> susan, when you look at the narrative, it hasn't changed on the jobs numbers from the last time. the president is still leading mitt romney with most swing states and nationally. is that troubling for the romney camp? >> no, because there is actually a change. when you take the last three months, job numbers months, and compare them to the first month of the year, january, it's exactly the same. so this second quarter has been horrible. now, the president does -- is very well liked. we've seen that throughout the polls. but in the swing states he's at 43%, 45%, he needs to be above 50%. any incumbent knows you have to go into the final stretch at 50 or above or you're in real trouble. so i think, while -- i mean, i grow with doug. i think it's early yet so we have time to have this play out. but it is significant. >> okay, susan. let's move to our next topic and begin with you on that one, the holiday happenings. the romney camp ran into some messaging issues on the health care mandate issues. let's listen first to mr. romney first his senior aide. >> the governor disagreed with the ruling of the court. he agreed with the dissent that was written by justice scalia, which very clearly stated that the mandate was not a tax. >> well, the supreme court has the final word, and their final word is that obamacare is a tax. >> is it a tax? is it a penalty? how does something like that trip up the romney campaign? i mean, how does it happen? >> i'm not sure frankly because after the supreme court ruling it is either a constitutional tax or an unconstitutional penalty. and you could have left it at that. but the fact that the campaign had so much trouble with their messaging was a big problem, and it frankly took them off what they could have had as a very good week into a very poor one. they should have been prepared for this months ago. >> anne, on the heels of that asoesment, some republicans are saying mr. romney should shake up his campaign staff. should he? >> that's right, there have been calls this week for that. it's hard to say whether this is the fault of the staff, which to date has done a pretty good job frankly even at times when the candidate hasn't quite been there in the moment, or is this something that is actually mitt romney's own fault and only he can fix. regardless, i think it's very unlikely that we're going to see a majjor makeup in the romney campaign. even when he's had when he's had real trouble bigger than these, he hasn't shed his advisers. he's not that kind of person. he likes his inner circle. that's a trait we've seen in past candidates who have been successful, president obama being one, george w. bush being another before him. these are all people who like to get their core people, keep them together, and that's every indication we're getting from the romney campaign is that any changes they do is to add people, give people new titles but not have some huge shake-up and shed their current staff. >> susan, i want you to weigh in on something before i get to doug on this. this is from the boston globe which says, the last thing mitt romney needs is a john kerri moment. the very rich are different than you or me, but there it was, the image of a grinning mitt romney, his wife ann enjoying a perfect sunny day on a jet ski. susan, what about the optics of this vacation? i guess they think it's okay to see him on a family vacation playing thedoting dad, doting grand parent? does this make it harder to relate to the middle class? >> i don't think so. george bush, everyone saw him as a regular guy on the ranch, and then to see kerry on his wind surf was just ridiculous. it makes sense, plus team obama won't be able to use that against him after the president has taken his vacations to hawaii and martha's vineyard. >> but this week the president has canceled his trip to martha's vineyard. so do you think he will have trouble if the economy doesn't turn around significantly before november? if it does, shouldn't the president just go to martha's vineyard? >> i really like seuusan, but i it mattered for john kerry, it shouldn't matter for mitt romney. the campaign spends millions and millions of dollars on campaign ads. i'm not sure of the planning on this and why this happened, but largely, the problem here for the romney folks is it just rein forces this image that the romney campaign and other folks are trying to paint of mitt romney being this out-of-touch aloof person that doesn't care about the middle class. he's done this in his own way, with his comments about not caring about the very poor or liking the fire people. that's why this is a real problem. it just rein forces an image that people are starting to have this their head about mitt romney. >> we're going to have a lightning round with best and worst. oh you too! ooh, hey america's favorite cereal is... honey nut cheerios ok then off to iceland! let's get to our best and worst. susan, you, first. >> i had to dig deep because i think everyone had a horrible week. i will give it to congressman rangel because it looks like he will win his primary. and president obama with his jobs numbers, just really bad news for him. >> doug, how about you? >> best, the democrat campaign committee. they raised over $2 million and had one of their best fundraising days last saturday. worst is congressman joe walsh who attacked tami duckworth who is an iraq veteran. an amputee called in and said he wasn't a true hero, so that's my worst. anne? >> worst, you have to feel for eric fernstrom. the best, rupert murdoch. >> that's a wrap, everyone, on weekends with alex witt. i'll see you right here tomorrow up next with rock center. have a good one. and becoming a fulltime indoor cat wasn't easy for atti. but we had each other and he had purina cat chow indoor. he absolutely loved it. and i knew he was getting everything he needed to stay healthy indoors. and after a couple of weeks, i knew we were finally home! 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