The hurricane track on this program at the end of this hour. And thats afternoon important time because just toward the end of this hour when is we will get the very latest forecast from the National Hurricane center. That should be coming out, and we should have it for you here at the end of this hour. And there are military storm clouds near the russian border tonight with georgia. It is another demonstration of russian adwregs toward its neighboring countries that could become another International Crisis over this weekend created by Vladimir Putin at a time when President Trump is saying he wants Vladimir Putin and russia to be welcomed back into the g8. Russia expert Evelyn Farkas with her take on what Vladimir Putin is up to now and what the president of the United States should be doing about it. And our secondfavorite rachel will be back with us tonight. Political scientist rachel vidikoffer will give more explanation of why the data she is using in her election model has given her a prediction of the democrat, whoever the democrat is, winning a solid electoral victory in the Electoral College in the next election. And we begin tonight where we left off last night, with the clock ticking on the death sentence, the Trump Administration has, we hope unwittingly, imposed on maria isabel pueso this is the most important story we discussed last night and it is the most important story we will discuss tonight ar life hangs in the balance because of an immigration policy change made by the Trump Administration which has decided to refuse to grant any extensions of permission to stay in the United States for medical treatment. That decision has been met by understandable outrage and moral condemnation since the story first broke. That radio station, wbur in boston, and then in the boston globe, and then yesterday in the new york times. And that moral condemnation is completely understandable. But i for one am going to leave that out of what i have to say about this story. Because we are presenting this story again tonight with an objective. The goal here is to inform you of the news of what your government is doing, but possibly even more importantly in this particular instance, the goal here is to save a life. And the people who have the power to intervene and save this life will not hear the plea for her life. If it is hurled at them wrapped in moral outrage. The government officials who can change this death sentence in the coming days cannot be condemned into changing their policy. But they might be persuaded to change their policy if we keep telling them the story of Maria Isabel Bueso. She came to this country when she was 7 years old at the invitation and request of my first guest, dr. Paul harmatz, who told isabels story to Rachel Maddow last night. He needed patients to conduct Clinical Trial forth a rare disease, and he could not find enough patients for this rare disease study in the United States. Theres the full formal name of the disease on the screen right now. The professional shorthand for it is mps6. It cause is spinal cord compression and other growth abnormalities. And dr. Harmatz convinced isabels parents to bring her to the United States to help medical research, to help other children who would be born with her condition. Isabel is now 24 years old. She has been participating in medical studies throughout her life in the United States. Her doctor credits her with helping him and his Research Team make dramatic breakthroughs that have helped people with her disease live longer. Patients with her disease used to live just a bit beyond the age of 20. Now with isabels lifelong participation in these studies, patients can now live longer than 30 isabel graduated from College Summa Cum Laude last year. She received a letter saying if she doesnt leave the country within the next 33 days, she will be deported. Every day between now and her deportation order, we are going to try to find a way to persuade the people in the Trump Administration who are doing this, doing this to this patient, to change their minds. Because this is what isabels doctor told rachel last night. Youre really handing her a death sentence. Its as if were pulling the plug on a respirator or stopping feedings for a patient that needs that type of support. I think its fair to assume that no one in the Trump Administration who participated in this change of policy decision has ever heard of the disease that isabel struggles with. I certainly have never heard of it. And the disease that isabel has helped find medical breakthroughs for treatment. They could not have known that they were sentencing isabel personally to death with that letter. But after this weeks News Coverage of the story, many of them do know now. We have to try to make sure that they all know in the hope that somewhere we will find a sympathetic ear connected to an open heart, someone who can begin to turn this decision around in the days that are left before isabel is scheduled to be deported to her death. Politics of governing is far more complex than the politics of campaigning. And the politics of campaigning, you are just trying to beat the other side. The politics of governing, you are trying to persuade the other side. In your own lives you know the tone and vocabulary that you adopt for persuasion is very different from the tone that you bring to open argument. If isabel is deported to her death, if the day comes that we must report at this hour that she has died in guatemala because she was deported and denied medical treatment to help keep her alive, there will be moral outrage. There will be condemnation. But as long as there is a chance to save her life, we are going to work on this story the way i worked on legislation in the United States senate when i was a democratic staffmember trying to persuade senators on the other side to change their minds. So were going to frame our coverage of this story in optimism. Our coverage of this story will be based on the hope that someone will persuade the Trump Administration that isabel should be rewarded for what she has done in this country, rewarded for what she has done for medical research, rewarded for the lives she has saved with her participation in medical research. Lives she has improved and lengthened because of her participation in medical research. We hope that someone will persuade the Trump Administration to reward Maria Isabel Bueso with her life. And no one is more persuasive in telling isabels story than the medical hero who has kept her alive longer than anyone thought possible when she was a little girl in guatemala. And longer than anyone thought possible when she ra arrived in california at age 7. So it is my honor to begin our discussion tonight with that medical hero, dr. Paul harmatz who joins us now. Doctor, thank you very much for joining us again tonight. I know your schedule is difficult. But it is important to you and so joining rachel last night, joining me tonight, i think is at this stage possibly the most help that you can bring to your patient. So thank you very much for joining us. Thank you, its been a whirlwind two or three days. Were beginning to see some hope. And the responses that were getting on the internet, by phone calls, by people parents of patients with rare diseases, similar diseases that i take care of that are asking how they can help and people calling who we dont know that are just giving suggestions and leaving messages. I think its really beginning to move people that this is a crisis. And its a crisis not just for isabel but for all of these very rare disease patients that are being asked to leave the country. I also im not a hero. Im a pediatrician. Ive followed some great scientists with these studies and really want to give them credit. It was the perfect time to bring a unique therapy. We can therapy amal kakis was one of the inventers of this therapy when it was first brought to the human for mps1. He helped move this forward for mps6, which was the second disease that was had therapy developed in this group. It was a tremendous breakthrough to be able to give the patients back the missing enzyme. It was a breakthrough of new science, genetics, all of the ability to do gene therapy within cells and make this protein that we can infuse each week. And the future is open. I mean, thats the amazing thing is that isabel is healthy and bright and vigorous and were within a few years of being able to do gene therapy. Trials are ongoing in italy for gene therapy for mps6. We just need a few more years to bring this therapy to isabel so she doesnt need these infusions weekly that she can make her own enzyme, you know. It would be it will be an unbelievable tragedy if shes taken off enzyme and is not able to reach this permanent solution. I have to believe that assess bell is more than just a patient to you after almost 20 years now of treatment and working together. Shes been a contributor to your research, and im sure one of the real friends, important friends in your life. She is. Its a small community. We only have 50 to 100 patients in the u. S. I know most of the patients with mps6 over having worked with this disease for 20 years. And i travel around the world and try to meet as many patients as i can. They know each other, especially the young adults that have grown up with the disease and now have hope that they can lead reasonably long and productive lives. And you know, this is really hitting the entire community. You know, it takes the wind out of them to think that this unique therapy thats keeping them alive is being pulled away from somebody that is doing well with it. So, you know, anything anything that were doing with media and with congressional help, and well potentially can break through this barrier and keep the therapy going. If you had a minute with President Trump what would you tell him about isabel . I would say that shes a delightful, vigorous, productive person. Shes she loves to dance. She has many friends. Shes always thinking about how she can help other people. She actually even in high school was organizing rare disease day to help educate her friends and schoolmates about rare diseases. Shes spent time in every year she travels to washington to participate in congressional meetings on rare disease day, lobbying congressmen, educating their offices. She really is a an engaged person. I think thats the way to say it. And she will produce many positive benefits that we hope all of our children are able to do when they grow up and become adults. And this would be a tragedy to take this opportunity to live and contribute away from her. Dr. Paul harmatz, thank you very much for taking the time to join us tonight, we really appreciate it. Thank you, lawrence. And we turn now to the politics of governing. The politics of persuasion. And what it might take to convince the Trump Administration to save isabels life. Joining us now is maria estevete, former chief of staff to president clinton and lecturer at university of California Berkeley School of law. Thank you for joining us tonight. Youve worked in a president ial administration. You know the way the thinking works. You know the way persuasion works. What would you suggest as an approach to try to persuade the Trump Administration to pull back on what is a death sentence . I think the first thing to focus on is understand what is motivating this administration, to try to figure out how to persuade them. Unfortunately, every step that this administration has taken on immigration is really rooted in what i believe is an effort to take discretion out of the system. Because thats what this new rule is, to just sim mary say, youve been here, were no longer accepting as a reason for you to be able to stay here that you are having critical essential medical treatment. It is to take that increase and to basically lose the humanity. Hide the humanity of immigrants. So im sort of at a loss, frankly, lawrence, to say how i would persuade this administration to withdraw this draconian view of immigrants as sort of not human. That they dont have stories and theyre individuals and that immigration authorities ought to be able to look at the context of each particular case and determine, in this case of isabella, this is a case of life and death as you heard from dr. Ha harmatz. To expel her from this country, to deport her from this country . Its frankly an act of murder. Because she cant get this treatment in guatemala. How i would persuade this administration . Somewhere weve got to find a way to appeal to that there must be some humanity in them somewhere, dont you think, lawrence . I do. And thats exactly the perspective from which im covering this story. And i hope that it can reach people who have access to the president. To make this case to him. This is a president who reportedly at the time was moved by photographs of a child in syria who was a victim of what was happening there. He was moved to missile strikes, according to the white house reports on this. His daughter presented him with these photographs. And so if theres any truth to that, if theres just a sliver of truth to that, it seems to me that somewhere in that area is a space where Something Like this could break through. I want to read from the letter, basically the deportation letter that was sent to isabel. We have a copy of it. It says it was dated august 13th and giving her 33 days from august 13th. And it says, if you fail to depart the United States within 33 days of the date of this letter, we may issue you a notice to appear and commence removal proceedings against you with the immigration court. So 33 days from august 13th is september 15th. So on september 15th, they may commence send her a notice to appear to commence removal proceedings. Do you have any estimate of if she gets one of those notices to appear, will it be appear within a week . Appear within two weeks . What timetable no, they will set a date. And she will need to appear. And lets be clear. There will be some time, but we also know from other efforts within the administration to speed up those processes, right . To not give people the time to really prepare their case. But i want to say, in a case like this, when your health and mention wellbeing is part of your ability to survive, imagine the stress and the damage that can happen to this young woman. So it is very likely that it will be several weeks, perhaps a month. But the important thing is no one should with this kind of condition, where leaving the country would be a death sentence, why does she have so to through this . And why should others not be able to present their case in a way that doesnt make them feel like their life is on the line, which is literally what is going on in this case. I do want to say one thing. Maybe, when you think about persuasion, you know, Stephen Miller is, as we know, if not the architect of this president S Immigration policy, pretty close to it. What would it take to persuade him to think of human beings when hes coming up with these policies, that these are lives and families and individuals, human beings with as much right to dignity as he has himself . Well, you know, i think the way a lot of these policies have been developed, its entirely possible that the president himself knew nothing about this decision when it was made, knew nothing about these letters going out. And i actually in this case hope that is true. So that the knowledge of it might be something that he can choose to reverse the more we get attention to this. Maria, thank you very much for joining us on this subject tonight, we really appreciate it, thank you. Great to be with you. And after this break coming up, weve just had a week of terrible polls for Donald Trumps reelection prospecks. Political scientist rachel vidikoffer is back with us tonight after this weeks polls added even more support to her Electoral College model that now shows the democrat, whoever that democratic nominee turns out to be, winning the Electoral College with at least 278 Electoral College votes. Breaking news following out of texas tonight. At least five people dead, more than 20 injured in a shooting rampage. Police say it started at a traffic stop where the suspect then opened fire. He went on to hijack a u. S. Postal service truck, then shoot at random people before being shot and killed by police. Three Law Enforcement officers were among those injured as well as a 17monthold child. Seven of the victim remain in critical condition. So you only y for what you need. Nice. But, uh. Whats up with your. Partner . Not again. Limu thats your reflection. Only pay for what you need. Liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty were pretty different. vo everyone in your family is different. Thats why verizon lets everyone mix and match different unlimited plans, so you only pay for what you need. Switch now to verizon. New plans start at 35. Just 35. The network more people rely on gives you more. Now to the return of our secondfavorite rachel. Very bad polls for Donald Trumps reelection prospect, quinnipiac showed him losing on oneonone matchups with the top five president ial candidates, and losing to four by doubledigit mar giants. Joe biden 54 against 38 . Bernie sanders 5339. Elizabeth warren 5240. Kamala harris 5140. Pete buttigieg 4940 in the quin pe yak poll. Tonight the latest polling supports political scientist rachel bidikoffers polling showing the same election pod delling that allowed her to predict the big blue wave of 2018 long before most people saw that coming. Joining us now is Political Science Professor Rachel b bidikoffer, newport news, virginia. Its really great to have you here. This is your third round here. It is. Here on the last word. I actually want to, once again, start from the beginning and step through this analysis. Theres a lot of emotional reaction to this kind of talk now. There is. I think theres such a shocked electorate, especially on the democratic side that donald trump won before. And i believe that there is an exaggerated notion of donald trump as some kind of superman politically, including in the media, which overreacted to Donald Trumps squeaking out the Electoral College. Right. I have not given up looking at polling information in the traditional way. Right. And all of the polling information on donald trump is disastrous. Yes. And always has been in terms of reelection since inauguration day. You look at that but you go way beyond that. And so talk us through how you get to the point where tonight you can say youre sure either say the democrat will get to 78, or put a better way, donald trump will lose 278 electoral votes to the democrat, whoever that is . Yeah, and it really is important to go back to that night in november, in 2016, and think about how the mood of the electorate was. And there was just such a sense right now we have this invincibility complex for trump. Hes basically the terminator. You cant kill him. Nothing will stick to him. And back then everybody believed the opposite that there was no way he would be president. I mean, nobody entertained seriously that they were going to wake up on wednesday morning to President Trump. And that attitude really set the tone i think for the entire debate between trump and clinton. It really fired up a lot of the Division Within the Democratic Caucus between bernie democrats and hillary supporters. And this assumption, you know, certainly by the forecasting models and the polling, particularly in crucial swing states wisconsin, michigan that just never showed him in contention. That gave people a acceptable of security, that they did not need to show up with ferocity. And we are talking about a whole different ball game now. Okay, so stage one is mood of the electorate. Exactly. Totally different from 2016. Yes. There was a certain amount of overconfidence that Hillary Clinton would win, which meant a lower turnout on the democratic side. There are voters, you are sure, who if they were told, if you dont vote tomorrow, donald trump will win, they would have gone to the polls but didnt. So that turnout will show up in 2020 . Absolutely. The other thing in your analysis thats relevant to that, especially in swing states you mentioned, is the thirdparty vote for jill stein, for example, in some of these states, made the difference in the Electoral College for those states. And you insist that wont happen aga again . That vote will not go to the third party . Well see some thirdparty balloting, and i think the arizona race last year is a great example, even after the Green Party Candidate withdrew and tried to beg supporters not to protest ballot, 2 did go there and it end up being decisive, Kristin Sim Mena still pulled out a victory. Im thinking 2 of the national vote. It will be down . Yes, but were talking about in 2016, i mean extraordinarily high . Extraordinarily high. The story in 2016 is not about the White Working Class who had been involved in a longterm realignment away from the democrats and really the last time they got excited about a democrat it was bill clinton, a white southern gentleman from arkansas, you know. The story of 2016 is much more about who did not vote and who showed up and voted a protest ballot than it is about White Working Class voters who really just did what they have been doing for a long time, and thats trending republican. The simplest stage of this analysis, actually, and theres more to it which ear were going to get to, all you have to do is reduce the thirdparty voting from 2016 on the green party side of thirdparty voting and donald trump loses . Thats all you have to do . Yeah, you could do just that one tweak in critical states. I mean, keep in mind florida has the same problem. We dont talk about it a lot. But the same problem down there occurred. Were talking about all of these states being decided by less than 1 . Donald trump did not win a majority in any of those states. He carried them with a plurality of the vote because of the 5 , 6 that was siphoned off to thirdparty voters. That is enough there. Then factor in the languished turnout among millennials and africanamerican voters and latinos. Thats just a quad i guess youd call that a quadruple factor of democrat iic malaise that we are not going to see, 100 , no matter how bad democrats might be at turning out voters, there is this natural passion now. Its like kerosene on this demographic tsunami thats been laying there just waiting to vote. So you first saw this new turnout phenomenon developing in the state of virginia in their state elections in 2017. You then, learning from that, applied it to the house races. And thats what gave you the essence of your prediction was theres going to be a turnout in these 2018 house races. Right. That will deliver these seats to democrats. Its going to be extremely energized and all of Orange County congressional seats can flip from republican to democrat because of this energy. And youre using that model on the president ial election, and youre saying in addition to this thirdparty vote which will be different in this next election, there will be this energized turnout on the democratic side. But you also say there will be an energized turnout for donald trump. Separate. These are going to compete . Thats right and thats one surprising feature that ill come back to. I want to hammer home, this is the point. The democratic enthusiasm has to have the conditions for it. So when we look at these 40 districts that i identified with my model, they all share certain factors. Theyre suburban. Theres a high rate of College Education in them. A decent rate of diversity in terms of the racial and Ethnic Diversity of the district. Those were places that i could look at and say, this is going to see a huge turnout surge, and thats why even though the polling hadnt caught up in Orange County on july 1st and the house ratings were lean republican or tossup, i knew for sure they were going to flip. And even after Election Night when, if you remember, those districts, they took a long time to flip. I was not in panic at all. I sat there for the five days i just listened to a podcast with katie porter where she was worried that she might not win ultimately. Should have called you. I was like, i wish katie porter had seen my analysis, she would have felt better. It was a mathematical certainty, if you have a passionate turnout, a catalyst, youre going to see that. But with the republicans, i expected, you know republicans vote. Theyre easier to vote in terms of their demographics. And also the Republican Party is just strategically superior to the democrats on how to get people to vote. But i didnt expect to see them maintain their turnout advantage, and in every district that i analyzed in a forth coming analysis, even though democratic turnouts are bigger, and it was a massive surge, they still underperformed the turnout of republicans. So youve now applied this to the Electoral College map. And youre looking at the districts that basically areas within the Electoral College map that say theres a lot of collegeeducated voters, theres the kind of voter profile that you say will turn out in surprisingly big numbers. And in shorthand, thats how youre getting to 278 . Thats exactly right. Im looking i mean, instead of a district, im looking at statewide factors. Im looking at urban populations. Because thats one advantage democrats have in there are disadvantages to the Electoral College system, certainly. But every state has urban centers. Every urban center has suburban populations. Case in point, texas. Texas is ground zero of the 2020 cycle. Democrats left several texas house seats on the table in 2018 because theyre not thinking about them in terms of these my model, the way i identify competition. And now i think theyre starting to recognize, oh, the suburbs of dallas, not only are they potential pickups for the house, those are the places that if democrats want to make a serious play at the texas senate, a serious play at flipping that in the Electoral College, which by the way would knock the presidency for the longterm off the republicans agenda, i mean, thats where it would happen in the suburbs of dallas and houston and major urban areas. Professor rachel bidicoff, our secondfavorite rachel, thank you for joining us tonight, were going to have you back a lot. Coming up, the woman who wrote the book on the politics of trumpism, joy reid, will join us. Well see what she thinks of the Electoral College prediction. 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The most common side effect is nausea. Talk to your doctor about chantix. Heres joe biden in effect echoing rachel bit covers modeling for the president ial election. When the assertion is made that well, the reason the only person that can beat trump is quote an old white guy, i just think that i mean, i think theres other people in the race who can beat trump. Who . Well, i i think almost anybody. Theyd all make a better president than trump, no matter whos left in the race. Joy reid is generously doing double duty for us tonight by hosting Rachel Maddows show and returning to join us at the last word. Mshs national correspondent, host of a. M. Joy on msnbc, the author of the man who sold america trump and the unraveling of the american story. It says on the back of your book it delivers a compelling account of how we got to trumpism and what will happen next. So with that authority invested in you by this book. Whats your take on what youre hearing from racheled by cover . She says she can count tonight 278 electoral votes for the democratic president ial nominee, whoever it is . Im going to bring on our conversation off air, on air, that i did say to you, when she tweeted someone tweeted to me her analysis that i read the same day that you first had her on the show. Then i watched her on the show. And it was sort of a wakeup call for me as well. And ive been on both sides of this business, covering it, also working on campaigns. I can tell you in the last month of the 2004 election, which is the first president ial campaign that i worked on, in my deep inside i knew that the democrat was going to lose. There were things about the race that you knew. And she wrote down the four things i think are the key. The mood of the electorate, which side the hungry, the hungrier constituency wins. The overconfidence democrats had in 2016. I myself. The data said Hillary Clinton is going to win so a lot of analysis was around that overconfidence. The fact that it is not the White Working Class that is the pivot. They are already republicans. Ive believed that for a long time. I think democrats obsess over them too much. The fact that it is diverse suburban collegeeducated districts that are the ones that delivered the angry result in 2018, it could again. I think shes right in the sense that that first thing, the mood, the hungry constituency after eight years of barack obama were white americans who were angry about racial change, enraged. They were motivated. Hillary clintons voters were not motivated. Africanamerican turnout, for instance, fell under 60 . That is a sure loser for democrats. I think since the democrats are angrier and hungrier and the far right is sated by Donald Trumps rule cruelty toward immigrants, i think shes right. And theres another simple piece of mathematics thats right in the center of her analysis which is, the thirdparty voting gave donald trump the election. And people vote thirdparty when they think they can. Thats right, thats right. When they think its not going to tilt it. Yep. She doesnt believe youre going to see a thirdparty vote that gives wisconsin to donald trump. Right. And so if you think about the way that the democrats and democraticleaning independents were thinking about 2016, the assumption was hillarys going to win anyway, so if you had some objection to her, whatever your objection, that she spoke at a corporate function at some point, you could say, im going to vote for jill stein because i dont like her ethics on speechts. You figure shes going to win, what difference does it make . No one thinks that now. Everyone who in any way is disturbed by donald trump, and thats most of the country, is shocked, appalled, and terrified, and wants him gone. On the other side, when you think about the way his base is, they are in one of two camps. They either are loving donald trump and think hes great but theyre sated. They dont need to come out as much as the other side does. Or theyre wondering, my harm is going down the tubes. I think the anger and outrage is on the i thought democrat and the idea that people are going to willynilly vote thirdparty, i dont see that happening. I am so glad we have found a new source of analysis about this. Yes. I discovered rachel bid cover, i read an article and said, lets get her on the show. Shes changed my thing, expanded your thinking. Joy reid, thank you very much for working overtime tonight. This is fun, i love this stuff. Thank you very much. When we come back, monday the world was shocked when donald trump blamed russias ilelectric annexation on crimea from ukraine on president obama instead of Vladimir Putin. Tonight Russian Forces are again acting aggressively toward a neighboring country, georgia. Who will donald trump blame now . S your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. I wish i could shake your hand. Granted. 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When he was the republican nominee for president in 2008, john mccain said, today were all georgians. He was amplifying the International Outrage at russias aggression against the neighboring country of georgia. That aggression has taken a new and dangerous turn this week. According to the state department the United States is monitoring reports of military buildup near the administrative Boundary Line of the russianoccupied georgian region of south ossetia, warning of risk of serious confrontation in that region. Military forces in the russianbacked region are lining up along that regions border to demand georgian forces remove a checkpoint that separates the region from the rest of georgia. The move comes just days after President Trump absolved russian president Vladimir Putin for the shocking acts of russian aggression that took place when russia invaded and annexed crimea in 2014. Donald trump blamed that not on Vladimir Putin but on president obama. So who is to blame for russias aggression tonight in georgia . And what should the president of the United States be doing about it . Russia expert Evelyn Farkas will join us after this break. Fundraising. Giving back. Subaru and our retailers have given over one hundred and sixtyfive Million Dollars to charity. We call it our love promise. And its why you dont even have to own a subaru to love a subaru retailer. Subaru. More than a car company. You should be mad at tech that makes things worse. But youre not, because you have e trade whose tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. Dont get mad, get e trade. burke at farmers insurance, weve seen almost everything, so we know how to cover almost anything. Even a threering fender bender. clown 1 sorry about that. clown 2 apologies. clown 1 . 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Tonight as we approach yet another International Crisis created by Vladimir Putin, we are joined by Evelyn Farkas, senior fellow at the german marshall fund, former Deputy Assistant secretary of defense for russia, ukraine, and youre rare sha, Msnbc National Security analyst. Evelyn, troops forming on a russian border area with georgia. Weve seen this before. Right. This is Vladimir Putin showing the world and showing his neighbors in particular that hes still the man, if you will, that russias still a great power, and that russia has a lot of cards. Its also i think a littlecards. Its also a little bit a finger in the face to the west, so western europe, the g7, our president , saying, hey, i can still cause a lot of trouble, dont think about expanding nato, georgia is still on the list, they still want to become a nato member. And the origin vegal invasion o georgia came about because the georgians were offered a conditional member in nato. George bush, our president at the time, was pushing it really hard. It didnt come to pass because the russians invaded and they continue to occupy 20 of georgias territory. But this is a very dangerous situation. Unfortunately its yet again, i would say, a g7 failure, because they should have been talking about ukraine and georgia and a lot of things that russia is doing wrong rather than even having to discuss the possibility of reallowing, reinviting russia into the g7. President trump had them basically wasting their time on a discussion, and then Vladimir Putin, to show his gratitude for how hard donald trump worked for him at the g7, trying to get him back in the group, he does this. You mentioned the first incursion into georgia. Lets listen to what republican president ial candidate john mccain had to say about that then and just imagine what has happened to republicanism since john mccain said this and where donald trump is now. Lets listen to this. I know from speaking this morning to the president of georgia, who i have known for many years, that he knows that the thoughts and the prayers and support of the American People are with that brave Little Nation as they struggle today for their freedom and independence. I know i speak for every american when i say to him today, we are all georgians. Its so hard to watch that with john mccain gone. Right. And donald trump now in the place where john mccain wanted to be. That didnt have to be written for him, not one word of that had to be put in his mind for that. He was ready for that kind of how to deal with that kind of crisis. What should this president be doing now . He should be, ideally, doing what john mccain did, which is recognizing what russia is doing. This is not a democracy. This is a country thats trying to reestablish a sphere of influence. Its trying to bully georgia, of course. There is also the situation in ukraine which we need to keep a very close eye on. Now, maybe theyve made some progress. But nevertheless, Vladimir Putins agenda is all about creating a sphere of influence, getting his way with the neighboring countries, weakening them politically. And so this is, again, unfortunately, john mccain understood, we have to fight against the bullies, we have to fight against autocracy. The georgians established a democracy. It was a really big deal. John mccain was actually there at the very beginning, heavily involved, when most people didnt know there was a republic of georgia, they just thought there was a state of georgia. In 2008, when we said, georgia, come into nato, we didnt realize the russians would have the reaction they had. Now we know theyll use military force to prevent sovereign countries from joining associations that they want to join. That should be unacceptable. The west needs to jump in, lawrence. Our government should be leading the way to put an end to this aggression. Well be watching it over the weekend. Well probably have to hear from you next week about this. Evelyn farkas, thank you very much for joining us tonight. When we come back, the newest forecast from the National Hurricane center has just been released. Bill karins has it. Hes ready. He will be with us, next. Your car insurance,rty mus so you only pay for what you need. Nice. But, uh. Whats up with your. Partner . Not again. Limu thats your reflection. Only pay for what you need. Liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty bills back needed a afvacation from his vacation. An amusement park. So he stepped on the dr. Scholls kiosk. It recommends our best custom fit orthotic to relieve foot, knee, or lower back pain. So you can move more. Dr. Scholls. Born to move. I planned each charted course each careful step along the byway much more much more than this i did it my way announcer verizon is americas most awarded network and the only one with the galaxy note10 5g. Right now, when you buy one, you get a galaxy note10 free. Thats verizon. vo sleep this amazing . Thats a zzzquil pure zzzs sleep. Our liquid has a unique botanical blend, while an optimal melatonin level means no next day grogginess. Zzzquil pure zzzs. Naturally superior sleep. Welcome back to msnbc. Im meteorologist bill karins. Just got the new update in from the National Hurricane center. This is the 11 00 p. M. East coast advisory. The big question was, is this now a category 5 hurricane. Weve had some aircraft over the last couple of hours going through the center and through the eye. And they found some very strong winds. The Hurricane Center said, not quite strong enough. They left it as a very strong category 4, winds max of 150 miles an hour, still going slowly, 8 Miles Per Hour due west. Its beginning to close in on the first land area ever since it left the Virgin Islands a couple of days ago. You can see this island right here, the great abaco, that will be the first area hit. Then it will hit grand bahama island in the freeport area. 70,000 people live on these two islands combined. The storm will sit over them for 36 to 48 hours, category 4 hurricane, can you imagine what thats going to be like . The new forecast path from the Hurricane Center. I didnt think they would make any big dramatic changes, and they havent. Everything pretty much remains status quo. They think its going to stall out and very much slow down over the two islands i just mentioned. Then by the time we get to monday night, we start that slow turn to the north. They still have it about 100 miles off the east coast of florida. They still have the cone of uncertainty, still includes palm beach, moves up melbourne, the space coast, volusia county, back up to jacksonville. Then they still have the cone through coastal areas of carolinas. We havent crossed anybody out of this. They still think if its off the coast, it could be a category 2 hurricane all the way up to carolina. Our computer models, some of them are offshore, but we have enough little squiggles here towards northeast portions of florida, the space coast north wards, a matthewtype path, that we still have to very much prepare and even evacuate tomorrow in some portions of florida. The winds will have an impact, high chance of tropical stormforce winds. The question is how much of the hurricane winds will be offshore. Most of the rain should be off the coast of florida. But we could still have rain problems ahead in the coastal areas of North Carolina and northeastern portions of North Carolina. We still have a couple of days left before the storm comes to the u. S. Mainland. Stay tuned to msnbc. Hi, ive richard lui, thanks for being with us. We continue to follow the breaking news out of west texas. At least five people are dead, 21 more are injured. This after a mass shooting earlier today in the cities of odessa and midland. Police say one suspect was killed near a movie theater, and that there is no longer an active shooter threat. They describe the suspect as a white male in his mid30s. President trump was made aware of the event, tweeting earlier, quote, just briefed by attorney general barr about the shootings in texas, fbi and Law Enforcement is fully engaged, more to follow. Now, the Odessa Police department held a News Conference wit
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