It is sunday, october 18th. Were happy youre up with us. Im lindsey reiser. Can we get it as an i. V. Good morning, everybody. Were live at msnbc World Headquarters here. Just got back from philadelphia yesterday. Didnt bring back any cheesesteaks or anything like that. We were talking to voters. We wanted to find out, we have the polls that show an increase of numbers of black men that support the president. Are they real . Ill show you what i find out later today. We begin with the race to the white house. 16 days to go. A busy day on the campaign trail. Both candidates stumping in key battleground states today. Joe biden set to speak in North Carolina. President Trump Holding a rally in nevada. In the meantime, backtoback rallies last night for the president , wisconsin and michigan, where there was little to no social distancing or mask wearing. Thats par for the course. Despite a spike of coronavirus in the midwest, in michigan, trump spoke for more than 90 minutes, on a variety of topics, joining in the crowd with a lock her up chat. The lock her up chat for the governor of wisconsin. He also talked about the events of George Floyds death. In minneapolis, they came in. The soldiers were the most expensive in the history of mankind. You approved them. They can look at somebody and somebody is gone. They came in, bomb, bomb, bomb. They just march forward and the whole thing was forward. It was like it was over. Right . Just i dont know. Theres something about that when you watch everybody getting pushed around, theres something very beautiful about it. I dont care. It was not beautiful. Meanwhile, early voting is under way in more than 40 states. As of this morning, more than 24 million ballots have already been cast in person and by mail. The biden harris ticket is making inperson trips to battleground states. Today, george biden will travel to North Carolina and tomorrow, came came kamla harris will travel to florida. That will be the first day after waiting out a covid19 scare. Ali vitali joins us from recall liv ralei raleighdurham, where a couple of celebrities were getting out the vote for biden. Reporter yeah. tis the season for surrogates. You had Kerry Washington out here campaigning in North Carolina over the weekend. You also have the more traditional political celebrities. President barack obama going to begin his closing message out here on the campaign trail for his former number two, joe biden. Obama will be hitting the trail when biden will be doing the final debate. Since its surrogate season, Kerry Washington and others campaigning in this state, for both campaigns, is critical to the electoral calculus. Listen to why Kerry Washington explained why she is here and why its so important. Ill thrilled to be in North Carolina because North Carolina is going to really matter. Here in North Carolina, youre voting on senator, governor and president. Youre also voting on local state representatives. Theyre voting on d. A. S. So many races. And all of those people have an impact on the decisions that govern your life. Reporter you guys talk about the millions of people that have already voted. Here in North Carolina, theyre one of those states that just started early voting. They have more than 1 Million People here that cast their ballots in some way. And the races that washington was mentioning there, those are the races i imagine were going to hear about from people like joe biden when he comes to the state. This is one of the key senate races. Cal cunningham and tom tillis. Im going to make a scandal reference because both have had their own form of scandals in the last few weeks. Tom tillis was at the rose garden ceremony that turned itself into a superspreader event. He was tested positive for covid19. And cal cunningham, he is in the midst of his own scandal, because he was caught with illicit Text Messages he hasnt denied, either. Both of these campaigns are fighting their uphill battle in a state that is a key battleground in the senate and in the contest itself. Biden will be making that pitch, telling them that its so important to vote. I guess Kerry Washington just walked into the state and said, its okay. Its handled. Its been handled. Ali vitali, in durham, North Carolina. Listen to that laugh you got. I got a bunch of these dad jokes. Here all night, everybody. Tip your waiters. Its 6 05. Thanks, ali. Lets go live to the white house and kara lee. Lets explore that moment that upset the governor of michigan. It is an important moment. I know weve been there before so many times, where we said this is not normal. This is not normal. Yeah. The president was at a rally at western michigan. He decided he would take aim at the states governor, just recently after she was part of this alleged plot to kidnap her. That the Justice Department came in and foiled. That didnt matter to the president. The president decided he was going to take her on. He was critical of her, saying she needed to open her state. This was the longtime thing by the president. He took it to another level. Listen to what he said yesterday. What youre doing in michigan is amazing. You have to get your govern ur to open up your state. Okay . [ cheers ] and get your schools open. Get your schools open. Your schools have to be open, right . Lock em all up. Reporter now, Governor Whitmer hit back at the president saying, quote, it needs to stop. This is not the first time the president has done Something Like this. The lock her up chant was a signature part of his 2016 campaign. It was at hillary clinton. Now, you hear it at Governor Whitmer. Ill read what the governors tweet said in response to the president. She said, this is exactly the rhetoric that put me, my family and other government officials lives in danger while we try to save the lives of our fellow americans. It needs to stop. A folksman f s a folksman fpokesman hit back s sees everything that is said about her online and to her and that every, single time the president does this at a rally, the violent rhetoric towards her escalates on social media. A call on the president to stop. The president , for his part, he wakes up in nevada today and is going to have a couple of other campaign events. He flies to california to raise money for his campaign. His campaign, its no secret, needs some money right now. The president traveling to california to do fundfundraisi. He will come back to the state, to reno and hold another rally. His campaign has about 100 million less onhand than joe bidens campaign. Going into the last couple of weeks here. Carol lee live at for us. Jonathan allen, the senior political analyst at nbc news digital. Jonathan, good morning. 16 days out until the election. Lay it out for us. Where are we in this race . Has anything really changed substantively in the last week . There hasnt been a huge change for many months. What weve seen is a little of an expansion, generally speaking, for joe biden, in a lead in National Popular vote polling. The National Popular vote and the Electoral College are not reflections of each other. The swing states are necessarily a little closer than the National Poll average. If you go through florida, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, and a whole set of what you think of is second tier swing states, less likely to flip one direction to the other. When you look at those polls, theyre still pretty close. Look at the averages of them. Look at the individual polls. This is still a race. It is still a race. And it was quite the race at 2016 at this point. Many democrats are a little giddy including many i met in philadelphia yesterday. They need to keep in mind that this is where we were four years ago or where they were four years ago. Nbcs National Polling average has joe biden with just over 51 support, compared to the nearly 42 support for the president. Joe bidens lead, it is real. But when you get to that 50 part, thats an important number there. Is that the insurmountable part . If we look historically at polling, that 50 plus, in statewide races, in addition to national races, will tell you that the person who has the majority is going to win. However that was a big however. Number one, the past is not indecorative of the future. Number two, polling is a snapshot and we still have a couple weeks here until this election. You know, things can move quickly. Weve seen that before, in the Ronald Reagan jimmy carter race, carter led until basically, the last week. And weve seen races like 2016, where the leader ended up losing. I think the president at 42 has difficulty winning. If he can get it from 42 , to 44 , 45 , depending how that is distributed among the states, youre seeing him in a zone where he could pull off, you know, essentially, a second straight shooting of the moon or a straight flushl or whatever you want to call it. Kendis earlier mentioned money. And a new article in the washington post, says President Trumps survives have thought about how to best spend the limited money in the campaigns the last weeks. Theyre trying to chart a path of a repeat of their 2016 comefrombehind victory. Do you believe a path like that exists in 2020 . Especially when 24 Million People have already voted . Yeah. I think the fact that we see the president in western michigan, basically going back to his 2016 Campaign Rally style, where hes more provoking people in the audience toward violence or at least towards hatred of the michigan governor, who was allegedly the subject of that plot. Were seeing what we saw in 2016, that was a little darker and angrier. He is trying to gin folks up here at the end. I think thats indicative of the possibility of that path, even though people have already voted. I think most political professionals would tell you that early voting usually just, for the most part, captures people that would have voted on election day anyway. Lets look ahead for a little bit here and talk about the debate that is upcoming. What do you think are the strategies going into thursdays second and final debate . What does biden need to do . And what does trump need to do . Do you get a sense that the president will be just as xative as last time . I think theres two separate questions what do they need to do and what is it that they should do . And what is it they are going to do . Yeah. Three questions. A my numbers arent working without getting the coffee injected into my main line. We have plenty. I think what you see from the president is an attempt to tone it down. I think at some level, you know, he understands and we saw from the town hall and nbc this past week, he understands that the sort of broader audience debates are an opportunity for him to try to rein things in a little bit. I know he interrupted Savannah Guthrie a lot. There were moments when he was boarding on rude. At the same time, that wasnt the full trump. I think youre probably going to see that from him or his best approximation of it in this next debate. On the biden team, theyve been playing the same strategy all along. I would be shocked at the change now. Trying to run out the clock for older viewers to remember the North Carolina tar heels of the dean smith era. You call it a fourcorners offense. I think biden is going to try to continue the same contrast, where he basically just says, im not that guy. Obviously, you dont like that guy. Im going to blow over that sportswriter. Jonathan, my last question for you, is are you the school of thought, that were going to see a red mirage, a numb weer of republicans and a blue shift as more mailin ballots get tallied. I dont know. One of the beautiful things about politics like sports, is theres a limited number of outcomes and an unlimited numbers of ways to get there. Theres the likelihood were going to see Republican Voters in droves on election day. Well see democratic voters in droves on election, depending on the state and everything. From the public perspective, what theyre going to see is a big, you know theyre going to see big lines in places to vote all over the country. As far as the numbers coming in, well probably get an imbalance toward republicans early in the day, as absentee ballots are counted, et cetera. We may see a shift. I hesitate to predict what will happen on election day. Whenever somebody does it on television, theres tape of them being wrong later. Smart man. Theres tape of Lindsey Graham saying things that you ignore. Well hold the tape. You get to choose your own adventure with senator graham. Thats true. Jonathan allen, thank you for joining us for this episode of real book shelves of logan circle. Capitol hill. Capitol hill. When you think you know your book shelves. This thursday is the final president ial debate. Nbcs Kristen Welker will moderate from Belmont University in nashville. Special coverage on thursday at 8 00 p. M. Eastern on msnbc. The pandemic is changing when people are buying seasonal gifts this year and how much theyre willing to spend. How retails are trying to make the most out of an unusual Holiday Season. Started using gain flings, their laundry smells more amazing than ever. Uh, honey . Isnt that the dogs towel . Hey, me towel su towel. Theres more gain scent plus oxi boost and febreze odor remover in every fling. Gain. Seriously good scent another bundle in the books. Got to hand it to you, jamie. 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In new mexico, coronavirus hospitalizations are up 101 this month. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo says movie theaters outside of new york city can reopen starting friday, as long as the infection rate is 2 or lower. Capacity is limited at 25 . Seats must be assigned. And masks are required. In europe, another wave of coronavirus restrictions. Paris, a new curfew cuts bars and restaurants down by 9 00 p. M. Londoners are banned from socializing inside and face masks are required in italy. The maedical director of Baylor College of medicine and an emergency room machine. How would you describe the latest rise in cases in certain states, especially in the midwest, across the midwest, and the rockies . Is this a second wave or third wave . I think it shows we never controlled the first wave to be honest, kendis. Wow. What were seeing is grim. Numbers are steadily increasing. As we go into the winter, this is not where we would like to be. Only two states are showing an improvement in numbers. The other 48 has cases that are steadily rising. In new mexico, hospitalization cases has risen 101 . Thats a significant number. Just last week, we saw 6,063,00 new cases of covid19 in a single day. And what people dont understand is its a visual cycle. First, we see a rise in daily cases and then daily hospitalizations and shortly therefore, well see a rise in daily deaths. Thats not good news. Doctor, europe is seeing a surge in cases. And people think that we didnt learn from their mistakes in the spring when all of this began. Are we repeating history here now . I think what were seeing is a little pandemic fatigue. Were getting a lot of mixed messages, a lot of mixed signals from leadership in this country. And it makes people not know what to believe. Should we wear masks . Should we not wear masks . Should we social distance . Should we not social distance. Although the science is very, very obvious. When you see the president of the United States, still conducting rallies and going ma maskless, despite the fact he was recently diagnosed with covid19, it makes the general public not know what to do. Thats contributing to the surge were seeing. Lets talk about europe. With the first wave, it was like a wave. China first, and then it hit italy and france and spain really, really hard. And then, we look up and we were hit hard. Were seeing it again. Its moving along. Israel, just getting out of l k lockdown again for a second time now. Many places are going into curfew. Is that an indicator of what the next six weeks to two months are going to be like . I think were looking into a crystal ball here. And this time we need to heed the warnings. What europe did initially, after their first peak in cases, they shut the country down. There was widespread different response from countries in the european union. And they impose curfews. People were staying home and businesses were closed. We saw a drastic drop in cases. As they go a little lax on the restrictions, of course, the cases are starting to go up. The United States needs to heed those warnings. A lot of people see a vaccine as being this Silver Bullet, the cureall. Exactly. Were hearing from pfizer. They are saying they hope to have an emergency authorization for a vaccine at the end of next month, the end of november. What does that mean in reality for when the population would be inoculated . In reality, it doesnt mean anything to me just yet. Were hearing so many different dates on this timeline when a vaccine could be released. The cdc is saying november or december. Dr. Fauci is saying maybe april. We have no idea when a vaccine is going to be released. And when a vaccine is released, its not going to be the Silver Bullet that people think it will be. Theres a lot of factors that go into Vaccine Development and vaccine approval that are going to be barriers to getting the United States population vaccinat vaccinated. Most of the vaccines in advanced trials right now are twostep vaccines. Thats an inherent barrier to adherence because you have to get people to come out that not only once to get the vaccine, but twice to get the second dose. Not only that, but the vaccines were looking at right now, are needing to be stored at subzero temperatures. Thats another barrier to distributions of the vaccine. Once a vaccine say proved, we may only get a few hundred thousand or a few Million Units and those are going to the most vulnerable populations, seniors and those in nursing homes. We wont get the majority of the population vaccinated until its approved. I keep telling people that it will be two years until its normal. Theres friends making winter plans, based on the vaccine that they think is coming out soon. Its not going to be all that soon. Its not going to be that soon. We need to understand that what were going through is the new normal. Thank you for that uplifting note, doctor. The dose of reality there. Thank you. New evidence this morning shows the economic pain from the pandemic appears to be worsening. What that could mean for the upcoming holidays, next. burke deepsea driving, i see. customer Something Like that. burke well, heres Something Else with your farmers policy perk, new car replacement, you can get a new one. customer that is Something Else. burke get a whole lot of something with farmers policy perks. We are farmers. Bumpadum, bumbumbumbum as a barber, nothings especially for guys who tend to get razor bumps with ordinary razors. But now theres gillette skinguard. It flattens the skin and lifts the blades for a shave thats close, but not too close for comfort. Proof i can fight moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis. Proof i can fight psoriatic arthritis. 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And so far, no deaths have been reported. Just to the north, near ft. Collins, the states largest wildfire forced more evacuations this weekend. This is 57 contained and has been burning since midaugust. Sobering news to tell you about today. Nearly 900,000 jobless claims were filed last week. The highest since august. 8 Million People living in poverty, after federal relief ended according to a study. The economy remains the fop election issue this year. Im looking forward to a sunday where this isnt the first thing we talk about. We have to talk about the number of americans filing for unemployment. More layoffs are happening. What does this tell you about the economy right now . It shows the recovery is slowing down. We saw 900,000 americans lose their job the last week. The u. S. Economy is transitioning from firing by companies from the future to firing by companies in structural decline. What we want to do is get back to prepandemic employment levels. Were not there yet. We recovered about half of those jobs. Half of the people who lost their jobs were able to return to the workforce. We have a lot more work to do. And the goal is not just to get to prepandemic levels. We want the economy to be thriving and the jobs to be booming and wages to be growing. You have the c. A. R. E. S. Act that saved 18 Million People from poverty in april. That number is dropping to 4 Million People in september. What needs to be included in the next relief package, if there is a deal . Lets hope theres a deal. Having more than 8 million americans fall below the poverty threshold since may, thats unacceptable. What is happening with the negotiations, what we really need for americans, is an extension of the 600 per week in unemployment benefits. And the 1,200 stimulus checks, we need another round. Jpmorgan chase shows data, that because there hasnt been an extension of 600 and stimulus checks, weve seen americans, when they had that, they were able to boost their spending and increase their savings, despite losing their jobs. Now that we havent seen more relief, the savings are depleted. What we know is that Senate MajorityMitch Mcconnell next week, he wants to put up for a vote, a highly targeted bill. 500 million. A 500 billion bill, that focuses on enhanced benefits, more money for schools and Small Business loans. Youre having people that are struggling to put food on the table and pay rent. Meanwhile, its the end of october. The holidays are coming. All of the retails are thinking, what can we do to encourage people to spend . Walmart will spread black friday out over three weekends to cut down onner store traffic and m people feel comfortable coming in. Do you think this will work . What retailers are struggling with, they want to have as many sales as possible during the l Holiday Season. The last thing they want is huge crowds at the stores and being responsible for that if theres extended spread of the coronavirus. What theyre trying to do is extend the Holiday Season online and boost ecommerce. And they are Closing Stores are thanksgiving day. Walmart, target and best buy were open last year. This year, theyre going to be closed. The retailers are focusing on ecommerce and sales online. Thats significant. The big box retailers are going to shut down on thanksgiving day itself. Thats huge. Many are opting out of celebrating this year, including halloween. The virus has brought down participation to 58 . Its usually a really big moneymaker. The costumes are like 50 bucks. Where do you find those costumes . Thats a steal. 8. 8 billion last year spent on halloween. How big will the impact be this year . It depends on how americans are feeling. If you lost your job, you may not have as many resources in the bank to spend as much. With halloween, it is trick or treat you can skip the costume and give yourself chocolates. Those kids come to my house, im going to take the treats from them. Thank you so much. Chocolate in all of our households for sure. Tens of thousands of Airline Workers across the country are in limbo, waiting for congress to take action, as many remain furloughed. Julia jester talk to talked to some of them. Reporter as the stalemate continues over Coronavirus Relief negotiations, thousands of Airline Industry workers across the country are facing an uncertain future. I spoke to several flight attendants how this is impacting them and their call to action. Airline workers out here on furlough, knowing there is widespread agreement to stop the furloughs and to keep our country connected, are feeling like pawns in this process. Reporter edgardo was furloughed by United Airlines on october 1st and no longer has health insurance. Im looking to pay about a couple hundred dollars a month, that i dont have. Im putting my health at risk not to have the money for that. Reporter natasha volunteered to take two years of unpaid leave to save her coworkers jobs. In september, she flew her final route to florida but stayed optimistic until last week when she received the official email from american airlines. Thats when it sunk in to me. Okay. This is it. Im starting to lose hope now that anything will happen to save my job in the near future. That sucks because, its like, were watching everything happening on the news. And i feel like were just a pawn in this political game. Reporter even with thousands of Airline Workers taking voluntary leave and early retirements, Major Airlines have had to furlough 45,000 workers and it may not be enough to save the skies. Theres longterm implications, as well, that could have ripple effects throughout the economy. Were talking about a significant retraction and impacts that will be felt in every aspect of the economy and what we do. Airline workers who are certified Safety Professionals will start to lose qualifications and take longer to get training back. When we get the virus under control and the rest of the economy is able to start up again, the Airline Industry wont be able to meet the demand. Nbcs julia jester. And not just the airlines and airline employees but also the restaurants at the airports, the shoe shine folks, many ancillary businesses. The whole economy thats created as a result. Theyre all hurting right now. New polling has suggested more black men are supporting the president this year than did in 2016. Is that true . And if so, why is that . We go to philadelphia, to personally find out. Were gonna replace candy with some healthy halloween treats today. 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The latest polling from pugh, shows black men are almost twice as likely to support trump as black women. Thats an interesting poll there. I went to philadelphia, to a onetime black mecca, south street in philadelphia. I spoke to the state workers of malcolm kenyatta. We got his thoughts on whats driving support for trump. I think what were seeing right now is a real concerted effort on the part of the Republican Party to try to peel away black voters however they can. Black votes for donald trump is like sheep voting for wolves. Caught up with black voters to see what would drive support for trump. Take a listen. Its not sexism. But its a masculine perspective. If you are talking about men that want to provide for their families and trump is saying, you will have more money because of my tax cut, and you can provide for your family, that element is there. Some minorities are more religious and he apeels to them. Sometimes you have people that, they are swayed by media, social media, and you see things that are sensationalized. And that usually sways peoples attitudes or how they feel. And also, how they vote. It is not a scientific poll by any means. But i searched along south street there, looking for trump supporters, because we have increasing numbers in the polls that say they support trump. I couldnt find anybody, any black man that was supporting the president. In fact, they were enthusiastically looking forward to voting him out of office. One person i spoke with explained exactly why. Listen to him. My 10yearold son, my 14yearold son, and my 16yearold daughter. I dont feel that this candidate thats representing this country right now in this moment, represent me, my sons, my daughter or anybody from my community. Yeah. When it comes to who they are supporting in this race, by a long shot, its joe biden. Who are you voting for . Im voting for joe biden. Who are you voting for . Most likely biden. Absentee. Who are you voting for . I got to go with the lesser of the one of the two evils, you know . Biden. Thats how i feel right now. Had one more interesting conversation that i want to share with you. Got a sense of the impact that rappers, like kanye and ice cubes connections to trump and the campaign, have had on opinions of black men. This was interesting. Heres that. Can you understand why ice cube and kanye and other rappers are supporting him . When looking at stuff like that, its about the dollar amount. They left my reality a long time ago. Thats the narrative i got for the most part as we talk about this. Thats the reality of a lot of the folks. They realize, yes, ice cube and kanye, they have. It is noise to them. It is noise to them. Its a financial thing. They find that whats important to them is providing for their family. Thats important stuff. Did anything else strike you as interesting that you didnt already know . I realize that black women are so much in the bag for the president. It wasnt scientific for biden. It wasnt scientific by any stretch of the imagination. Youre getting a feel for it. Every person i went to. Every black woman was, its a nonstarter. He didnt President Trump cant come to me. It was amazing. I was trying to figure out, why is it, that many thought, perhaps, they were having increasing numbers of black men supporting President Trump. Most people couldnt figure it out. Some thought maybe the impact of kamla harris on the ticket. Its a weird rabbit hole. They say, maybe shes not black enough because shes halfasian. She has a husband who is white. Black women were saying that could be the case. If barack had a white wife, they would not have voted for barack at the time. Something i havent heard before. Something that is back there with the community. We know she is a huge energizer for black women to vote for that ticket. Very interesting, kendis. 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By empowering employees to manage their own tasks, paycom frees you to focus on the business of business. To learn more, visit paycom. Com the american midwest is now a coronavirus hot spot. And north dakota is being hit especially hard. The state has one of the highest cases per capita in the u. S. , adding 760 cases this weekend alone. That brings the statewide total to more than 31,000 and now theyre running out of icu beds. Nbcs gary grumback is live ins by marc this morning. Gary, what are you hearing . Reporter good morning. Were here outside of Sanford Medical Center here in bismarck, north dakota, one of the two largest hospitals in the entire area of bismarck. And its also the location of the entire icu bed in the entire bismarck area. This has Public Health officials in the area really concerned and theyre already coming up with surge plans. Everything from moving around hospital beds here at sanford to even the idea of creating a Field Hospital over at the fargo dome a couple of hours away in fargo, north dakota. What is causing this spike . This is what everyones asking. And folks ive talked to tell me they believe its simply covid fatigue. Folks shut down here in march like much of the country did and didnt see many cases in the spring and summer. Now that its getting colder, there are seeing a number of cases and a big spike in those hospitalizations, as well. Heres what some folks i talked to yesterday have to tell me. Were all locked down so tightly all spring and all summer. I didnt really know a person that had it, so now to have my sister tested positive this week, so to have someone in my family test positive, its really hitting close to home. Not going to not go over to my friends house and do things. I want to live my life, but i know that could be more dangerous for the more vulnerable population that should maybe not do those things. But for those of us that are younger, healthier, im still going to do those things. But, yeah, we probably will see more of an increase north dakota because of it. Now it should be noted there is no mask mandate here in the state of north dakota. Governor doug bergham has issued a recommendation that people should wear masks, but no requirement to do so. That has local Health Officials really worried. They believe the mask mandate could help. The high today, 34 degrees. The warmest day this week will be 41 degrees. And i dont know how north dakotans feel, but for me that is not outdoor, strolling weather. Gary live in north dakota. And just some perspective on all of that. Were saying they had 700 new cases just yesterday alone. Its a state of only 700,000 people. Thats a really, really high number per capita there in north dakota. 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We want to make sure we knew that our ballot would count. I believe in mailin votes, but i wanted to make sure that my vote would 100 . Plus, a wisconsin bar owner who fought for his life is now fighting to spread a message. Good morning, everybody. It is sunday, october 18th. Im lindsay reiser. And im candace gibson. Thank you so much for being with us here on a sunday. Its starting out to be a busy day. In the race for the white house, 16 days to go,