Still sky high, but polls say it is up on the republican side too. Brett kavanaugh and that explosive fight over his Supreme Court nomination may have been the trigger. This a battle that could serve as a flashpoint for both parties basis and it might ultimately change the gops fortunes come november 6th. How did you get home . I dont remember. How did you get there . I dont remember. Wheres the place . I dont remember. How many years ago was it . I dont know. I dont know. I dont know. The way now Justice Kavanaugh was treated has become a big factor in the midterms. Our base is fired up. We finally discovered the one thing that would fire up the Republican Base. So Mitch Mcconnell talking about a firedup Republican Base. The big question were asking today is has the divide among voters change ed at all since 2016 . Lets take a look at some of the polling numbers we have been seeing. When i say a complicated landscape, this is what i mean. First of all, youve seen this number probably this week. Here it is. This is from abc news and the Washington Post. Their generic congressional ballot. Which party do you think should control the house. Democrats are up 11 points here. 11 points weve been saying all year, thats probably better than they even think they need to be, so on that front you look at it and say the democrats are in great shape. But when we say complicated, heres what we mean. Same poll, now they want to take a look at those 63 battleground districts. What do you find in there again . A ligtight, basically even situation between the two parties. Check this number out. This President Trumps Approval Rating right now. This is the average of all of his Approval Ratings. If you put them together, real clear politics keeps this, he clocks in at 43. 5 . You look at that and say thats not much to write home about historically for a president. Thats true. Bill clinton was down around this level in 1994. Democrats got wiped out this year. That is true. But keep in mind with donald trump, with the era of polarization were living in right now, republicans have been saying all year that if they think if donald trump could get that Approval Rating up to the mid40s, 45 , theyd like 46 , 47 obviously, not sure well get there, but they think the mid40s they have got a chance. The low 40s, the high 30s advantage big for the democrats. 43. 5, keep this in mind. That is up basically 3 points over the last couple weeks. Thats a big difference. Trump sitting at 43. 5 versus trump sitting at 40. 5. Given the narrow range his presidency has operated in when it comes to his Approval Rating, thats a potentially big difference. Thats getting close to that range where republicans think they have a shot to hang on to the house. Maybe not quite there yet. So again, some mixed signals when you start to look at the data, a complicated picture. An extremely energized democrat base. But now the question, if the Republican Base is getting as energized as well and will it last to election day. The president for his part, his eyes, his mind clearly on election day and how important that outcome is to his presidency. I want to give a victory speech on the evening of election day, which is coming up very quickly. A vote for morrissey is a vote for me. A vote for marsha is really a vote for me. And a vote for cindy is a vote for me. And a vote for steve is a vote for me. Remember this, a vote for david is vote for me and our agenda to make America Great again. Im not on the ballot but in a certain way im on the ballot so please go out and vote. Theron johnson was the regional director for the obama 2012 campaign. Hes the democratic strategist. Here in new york with me, noelle nikpour, author of branding america along with patrick murray. Patrick, ill start with you. We have all the polling numbers out there. Im just curious what youre seeing in your own numbers. How big has the change and the Energy Balance been between the two parties, and how much staying party does that have with three weeks to go . We saw a summer where democrats were normally energized. A lot of what weve seen over the past four or five weeks have been i think republicans coming home naturally. We talk about the kavanaugh effect, but i think that was just an added emphasis to rips coming back. So we go from a shift where the likely voter models are favoring democrats to one where its a little bit more typical. And a lot of these races where it looked like the democrats might be able to pick up some seats that would have been normally out of range are falling back just a little bit out of range. So i dont see right now 218 seats that i could definitely say go to the democrats. I think we are still in a situation where we dont know what could happen. So control of the house, you still say there is suspense there. Noelle, from a republican standpoint, i think the question is, and patrick is saying maybe this was more than just kavanaugh, maybe this was a longer term thing here, what is your read on it . Is it kavanaugh thats animated republicans . Is it something that would last to election day, or do we all move on to Something Else and forget about this . Heres the thing. I think a lot of the gop base was just kind of dormant. I think they were sitting there. I think this kavanaugh fight brought it right back home. And i feel like the reason that donald trump is out there working hard like hes campaigning is because he has seen some numbers that he doesnt like, that he is thinking we could lose the house. Were barely maybe going to be able to keep the senate. So i think it is going to be the trump bump. I think it was the kavanaugh bump. But the kavanaugh bump is not going to sustain all the way to november the 6th. I just dont think its going to be, because we like things fast and were on to the next were living in a breaking news minute where everything is different, you know, coming, coming, coming. I think that if you want to focus on the next thing that might bring republicans home, its going to be the market. Its going to be jobs, its going to be a feeling of security. I think that that is the biggest message. Thats what theyre touting is to resist the blue wave and build the red wall on the fact that were enjoying the great economy, less regulations, lower taxes. If you want a continuation of this, quote unquote, winning, then youre going to go ahead and elect trump no matter whos on the ticket because it makes reference to trump instead of, which they are viewing the democrats narrative as impeach trump or whatever the message is, because i dont feel like that the republicans are clear on what the democratic message is going forward. Theron, let me ask you about that. Patrick is talking about over the summer, and i think we saw this in special elections really for the last year and a half. We saw it in congressional special elections, even in state legislative special elections, that energy imbalance. What is your read on that right now . Do you feel more doubtful about your party taking back the house now than you did two weeks ago . No, im feeling very optimistic. I mean since the election of donald trump when he became president , democrats have been fired up. As you just stated, we have been winning election after election. We have won many special elections and we won a lot of elections in different states all across america. But the one thing that really sort of struck me about the polling numbers is that it shows that a majority of democrats a majority of people polled thinks democrats should represent them in congress. Lets not forget Hillary Clinton received 3 million more votes than donald trump, so she won the popular vote by 3 million votes. I think as we go into the midterm elections, the democrats have to have a base plus strategy. Continue to figure out how to motivate your base on issues Like Health Care and jobs and education, but also appeal to the middle. I just saw a study that shows that twothirds of americans do not approve and have not benefited from this trump tax cut, so i think all we need is 23 seats to basically take back the house. I think democrats are well positioned to do that in november. Let me ask you, noelle, we talk so much about the gender gap has been seismic. I think we can put this up on the screen. Female voters asked which party would they vote for in the midterm elections. Democrats 59, republicans 37 in this. When you look at trumps Approval Rating, weve seen a gap here. Weve been talking about a gender gap for a long time but its wider than ever. This is one of the things democrats look at. They say especially in these suburban districts, independent women. Is this going to be the achilles heel for republicans . It could be. One of the things that i noticed because im actively working on campaigns. One of the things that i have noticed is the emphasis on campaigning groups within a campaign of women. Women for x, y, z, women for a better america or whatever the candidates name is. So ive noticed increasing focus on these groups. Ive also noticed the appeal to try to get dollars out of women. A lot of times im in fundraising and a lot of times we go straight towards the men and are campaigning for dollars. But ive noticed a lot more a lot more outreach asking for women to get involved with their pocketbooks, not just their voices. One of the things that ive noticed as well is Pay Attention to the small donor. The large donor, the bundler, thats great. That adds to the campaign total. But look across america. Look at each of these individual races and look for that small donor. Thats how obama won. And well talk about this a little bit later, but we are seeing across the country small dollars adding up into big campaign war chests. Patrick, im curious too, do you see a divide here at all when we see democrats leading the generic ballot but see the shifting now in the republicans favor. Is there an issue here at all where the democrats are just its so masked in these suburban areas, these metro areas, where theres going to be tidal waves in the suburbs but maybe not elsewhere . One of the things we saw with democratic surges across the country is they occur in democratic areas. Its because democrats living in democratic districts are going to come out and vote but that doesnt change the fundamentals. The thing here that were seeing is that the Democratic House candidates, and theres probably about 50 of them that just cringed when tharon mentioned Hillary Clinton. Theyre trying to avoid Hillary Clinton and trying to avoid donald trump. Their appeal is were not that typical politician who plays games. Were not going to play these games that republicans and democrats have been playing all along and thats been their appeal. The National Message has not been there to help them. We had Elizabeth Warren with her dna test, you know, just recently. That just its not that voters are going to consider that when they vote for the house. It just muddies the waters because democrats dont have that National Message. Wee not going to play games, its not about partisanship. This is why donald trump is trying to inject himself in the race. Theyre more concerned about scoring points off of me than helping you. Democrats need to stay on that message if theyre going to get those 218 seats. Patrick murray from the monmouth poll. Thank you for joining us. Noelle and tharon will stick around. Still to come, busting the myth that new york city is nothing but liberals. Jacob soboroff went to a district that could determine control of the house, a swing district in a very blue city. Speaking of the house, democrats have outraised republican candidates by tens of millions of dollars. Wheres that cash coming from . Where is it going . Right after this break, though, searching for the truth about the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi. But do you take something for your brain. With an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in Clinical Trials to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Paim open to that. Medicare . Lower premiums . Extra benefits . Its open enrollment. Time to open the laptop. And compare Medicare Health plans. Why . Because plans change, so can your health needs. So, be openminded. Look at everything like Prescription Drug plans. Oh, and Medicare Advantage plans from private insurers. Use the tools at medicare. Gov or call 1800medicare. Open to Something Better . Start today. Open enrollment ends december 7th. Unstopand its strengthenedting place, the by xfi pods,gateway. Which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. Well almost anything. Leave no room behind with xfi pods. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Click or visit a retail store today. There are new developments in the disappearance of a Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi who is thought to be dead after last being seen entering the saudi kauconsulate last month in turkey. Publicly saudi arabia has continued to deny any involvement with khashoggis disappearance. A denial that President Trump himself appeared to believe in a tweet yesterday. Secretary of state pompeo is in saudi arabia today. He noted support among the royal family to uncover the truth of khashoggis disappearance. There is no word yet on how this latest Development Might change that equation. Joining me now, Josh Letterman and former undersecretary of state in Public Affairs under president obama, rick stengel. Hes also an msnbc political analyst. Josh, let me start with you. Put this up on the screen. According to two of the individuals, you say the saudis are putting together an explanation that would absolve Mohammed Bin Salman of responsibility by giving him plausible deniability to say he didnt order the killing and didnt know about it. So what is the version of events, according to the saudis, that is coming into focus . What are they saying happened here . That version is still being hashed out. The saudis are still working through that. We know that the saudi government realizes that the explanation they have been giving for the last two weeks, that mr. Khashoggi entered the consulate, did some paperwork and left, theres just too much evidence that that doesnt hold water. They understand that they have to admit some culpability in this and change their tune. So we have secretary of state mike pompeo in the region, in riyadh, meeting with saudi officials to help figure out how are they going to move forward with this. The turks and the saudis also discussing what theyre going to be able to say. We know that secretary pompeo spent a long day in riyadh. He met with king salman and with crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman for a long time. Didnt say much publicly. They have a private dinner theyre going to be doing now. Tomorrow morning very early secretary pompeo will fly to turkey for his next stop to deal with the turks or how are they going to move forward. So we know that saudi arabia is finding some way that theyll admit that mr. Khashoggi unfortunately is dead and was killed at the hands of saudi officials, but try to find some way that it doesnt point back at the top. That it doesnt implicate the leadership and crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Rick, can that be done in a credible way, what josh is describing . I dont know. They need to preserve Mohammed Bin Salman, hes the future of saudi arabia. They put all their eggs in one basket. Hes accumulated all kinds of power. We have had this long, difficult relationship with saudi arabia going back to fdr in 1948 and they always kind of screw it up in some way. The thing, the pivot point thats difficult now for the Trump Administration is theyre about to impose their new sanctions on iran, and they want to get everybody in the gang against iran. Saudi arabia is a critical partner. The American Public thinks, well, gee, were getting rid of iran but were lining up with these guys who are murderers . Its kind of a tricky thing. I think they have to figure out how to exonerate mbs so that they can go on and we can deal with him in our bilateral relations. You talk about the importance to the future of saudi arabia of the crown prince. I know in the past couple of years his image here in the United States had been, you know, the reformer, the modernizer. Yes. That sort of thing. Where did this come from, i guess . Well, its well deserved. I met with him when i was in the Obama Administration in riyadh in early 2016. At that meeting he said im going to allow women to drive. Im going to open movie theaters. He talked about something that for decades american wanted, which is someone to talk about a more moderate version of islam. Saudi arabia is the funder of schools in islam, which is a very extreme form of islam. So he is a genuine reformer. The thing is people are complex and he lives hes in a monarchial autocracy where theres no penalty for him doing things like this and both can exist at the same time. This is from fred ryan, the pers publisher and ceo of the Washington Post. This is about Jamal Khashoggi. He said it has been two weeks since Jamal Khashoggi disappeared in the saudi consulate in istanbul. They owe a full and honest explanation of having that happened to him and we support the request from jamals family for an independent international investigation. The saudi government can no longer remain silent. It is essential that our own government pushes harder for the truth. Until we have full accountability, it cannot be business as usual with the saudi government. Josh, that raises an interesting possibility there, calling on the American Government to push hard for the truth here and putting the suggestion out there of an independent international investigation, which sounds different certainly than what the saudis have in mind. Is there any indication that the Trump Administration would get behind Something Like that . So far there is no indication of that. But this really points to the key question and the key problem the Trump Administration is going to face assuming that the saudis do come forward with a version of events that says, yes, saudis killed him but that the crown prince wasnt involved and that this was some type of rogue operation. How does that square with what the u. S. Believes to be the truth . Is there intelligence that contradicts that . We know there had been some intelligence signs that the u. S. Had been aware of beforehand that the saudis were concerned about mr. Khashoggi, so how do they explain are they going to be willing to defend the saudi explanation of what happens . That will be something that all Trump Administration officials and probably lawmakers will be asked as well. All right, josh and rick, thank you for joining us. Democrat candidates outraising republicans by tens of millions of dollars. Will it make any difference in november . Thats next. 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Today, lifechanging technology from abbott is helping hunt them down at their source. Because the faster we can identify new viruses, the faster we can get to stopping them. The most personal technology, is technology with the power to change your life. Life. To the fullest. A potential piece of good news for democrats just three weeks from the midterms. They are outraising their republican opponents in 32 out of the closest 45 house races. And not by a small amount, either. As the New York Times reports, democrats are ahead by a whopping 46 million. A lot of that money coming from small dollars raised online. This is President Trump dramatically increases his own Campaign Spending on rallies to mobilize his base. All of this leaving many to wonder where is all of that money going and what kind of an impact will it have next month . Joining me ken vogel. Back with me as well, Southern Regional director for the obama 2012 campaign and democratic strategist, tharon johnson, and noelle nikpour. To you first, ken. It seems to me the scale of money here off the charts for a midterm but also the idea that this was raised online. I remember the novelty days of howard dean doing this online. Obviously barack obama had great success. Is this the new model for politics, its not so much about these highend fundraisers, its about going viral and collecting 20 a pop . Well, yes, steve. Were seeing like a real sort of divergence here between these two fundraising models. On the one hand you have democrats raising just a ton of money online, breaking fundraising records. On the other hand we see republicans seeking to offset the democratic advantage in small donor enthusiasm by relying increasingly on super pacs and extremely wealthy donors giving huge sums to super pac the. We see sheldon and Miriam Adelson giving 87 million and counting to republican efforts to try to keep the house of representatives. So after citizens united, we saw a real sort of change in thinking that maybe these big donors were going to dominate american politics for decades to come. We see the pendulum swinging the other direction on the democratic side. Well maybe have a verdict on how this sort of divergence will play outcome election day. Are there any expectations in the stretch drive . Were talking about an imbalance now. Any indications of a lastminute onslaught on the republican side from these wealthy donors youre talking about . Anything at the last minute that would even this out a little bit . Yeah. Were already seeing that. The adelsons gave almost more than 30 million just last month and were hearing there may be more in store. When we see the monthly reports come in from some of these other republican super pacs. On the flip side of things, i think well see major contributions that we already have caught wind of from democratic donors, including michael bloomberg, tom steyer, the California Investor and environmentalist potentially putting in their own sums so its not an either or thing. We see both parties trying to figure out how this balance will potentially be in play going forward. I think were really going to see it once after the midterms, once we get into the 2020 president ial fundraising. We may see some democrats actually eschewing some of these super pacs and large donors in an effort to capitalize on the small donor enthusiasm that Bernie Sanders did. He pitted the big donors against the small donors and it worked out really well for him. He almost won the democratic nomination running against Hillary Clinton who relied on major donors. So the jury is still out as to how american fundraising will look. It is certainly a test of running big donors versus small donors. Tharon, the differences here for the two candidates jump out. Heres missouri, for instance. Claire mccaskill running for reelection. She has raised 30 million. Her republican challenger on only 8. 5 million. This has been the closest thing to a tie weve seen. Thats the numbers in texas, same thing. Theres missouri. Basically you average the polls together and mccaskill even down a tick there despite that fundraising imbalance. Texas the most dramatic example. There was all that money we saw beto orourke raise and report. Its a total of 62 million to 28 million for cruz. We had another couple of polls come out today still showing cruz ahead by a pretty solid margin. I guess the question, tharon, is that money getting democrats what they think it will . Yeah, absolutely. Listen, its a part of the blue wave. One of the indicators that my republican strategist friends indicated was that you can tell by the amount of small donations to really see the momentum for the party. I just think that we have not only mastered but owned the fact that we have the momentum of the American People and were seeing it with our small donors. Now, one good thing about incumbents like senator mccaskill is that you need that much money when youre basically being attacked by all the republicans in that state and all the outside money thats coming in that state. So as a candidate, you want to be able to have a narrative thats very positive, but you also want enough money available to basically respond to the attacks once they come your way and then actually try to stay on your positive narrative. I think the one good thing also for democrats is that we have some big donors too, but i think that weve got to go back to these women, particularly, and these small donors and get them fired up to get more of their friends and colleagues to give more money to the party. But i think that ultimately money is key in any election. Nowadays when its just so easy for someone to attack you on twitter, on facebook, on instagram, through social media, and we live in this sort of 24 media hour cycle now, folks have got to have money to basically be able to respond to the attacks but also basically be able to close out their campaign on a very positive narrative. Noelle, im seeing that number for beto orourke, 62 for the campaign. I remember covering politics in new jersey when a self funder named john corzine, it was 63 million was his number. It was a record and he almost lost the race, a democrat in new jersey. The conventional wisdom that he had raised spent not raised, but he spent so much money that he was losing a point in the polls with every million he was spending. What ive noticed is what my colleagues is saying is true. More money, get your message out and whatnot. But there comes a fact where there you know, you have to look at whos behind some of this money. If youre a selffunder, you sometimes blur the lines. What i like to focus on as a National Fundraiser who mainly deals with bundlers, which, you know, a lot of campaigns like that, but take a look. Look at missouri, look at some of the fundraising. Its 8 million to 30 million. So you may look at that and go, wow, claire mccaskill, what a great advantage shes going to have and the polls are really tight. When the poll is really tight like that, look at some of the donations. If youre seeing a bunch of small donations, lets just say for the republican, thats a signal. A small donation is a vote, it is a voice and it is momentum. Look at obama, he started are you seeing that more on the democratic side . What ken is saying is youre seeing more of the small dollar on the democratic side and more of the big dollar on the republican side. Im seeing a mixture of both, and ill tell you why. I just got something from the rnc communication staff and it said that trump super pac just raised 100 million and they have like 88 something million cash on hand and the dnc and some of the things that they have, that they are in debt. So there are there are a lot of you can go back and forth on a lot i guess is what im trying to say. You can look at individual races and you can point out small donors, big donors. On a national if you look at the national map, your bigger donors, thats where youre going to see more of the play on the bigger donors is nationally. Noelle, tharon, ken, thank you for joining us. They are on an island in more ways than one. Jacob soboroff will take us next to the Trump Country in new york city. Yes, the big apple, a tiny blip of red in the big apple. Apples are red, but this is the really red part of pretend the apple is blue and theres a very small red part of the apple, how about that . I dont know. Im trying my best. Thats up next. 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Com well, three weeks out from election day, democrats are looking everywhere they can to try to flip house seats blue. They even have an opportunity maybe in new york city. No, its not all blue to begin with. Msnbcs Jacob Soboroff spent time in the city talking to voters asking them what matters to them. Jacob, you found the red island, literal island thats part of new york city. Not a lot of people know this. Staten island for a long time was represented by democrats in congress, but then it was redistricted, gerrymandered to include some parts of brooklyn and made it a republican district. Donald trump just smashed there. Its the only majority white district which is important to point out borough, i could say, in all of new york city. Theres a republican member of congress. Democrats think they have a play to knock him out. Were trying to figure out why and what matters to people there. This is what we found. Take a look. Thats lower manhattan. It doesnt get much more democratic than that, but we are heading to the one place in new york city that is actually represented by a republican in congress. And the democrats are hoping thats not going to last. Not far from the Ferry Terminal in new yorks 11th Congressional District is the neighborhood of Port Richmond where we headed to find what the local congressman told us was a famous type of pizza at a placed called deninos. So good. What kind of jobs do most people have. I have construction people in the back. Will you introduce me to them . Sure. What kind of pizza did you get . Garbage pie. What is important to the People Living out here. Jobs. Jobs . They care about business, jobs, taxes and a voice within the five boroughs. Because statten island is different from the rest of the five boroughs. Hows the calamari . Delicious. It looks really good. Are you republicans or democrats . Republicans. All our friends, everybody we know, republicans. But this is new york city. Why is everybody so fervently republican on Staten Island . Theyre trying to turn this into los angeles in california. Watch it, im from los angeles. Shame on you. Were trump. Were for trump. We dont want anybody going against him, and its a shame what they do. People are going to watch this and say youre in new york city and people are Walking Around saying i love trump . Yes. I would have wore my trump shirt if i knew you were coming. You have one at home . Oh, yeah. Thats where you eat the pizza. This is where they make the pizza. On the other side of this wall, the reason why republicans may keep it for now. Whats the secret . I cant tell you. Its a secret. One of the things that it sounded like to me talking to people is more people like trump and the republicans than dont like trump. Is that true . I think so. What about your community, the Mexican Community . Less people like trump. I think that thats fair to say. Youre a citizen, youre not a citizen. No, not yet. Do you vote . Not yet. You havent done it yet. Registering growing immigrant communities in the district is one factor that might help flip it, so we headed over to brooklyn to see how that was going. So thats what youre doing out here . Yes, trying to get more chinese residents to vote. So is it hard to stop people on the street to try to get them to register . Yes. [ speaking Foreign Language ] hi, im jacob. Real quick, whats your name . Whats your name . Okay, bye. She already registered. Wait, i want to ask you a question. His job, their job is a lot like my job, chasing people on the street and trying to get them to talk to you. He has to go a step further and actually register people to vote. Yes. Theres a bunch of Chinese People over there. Lets go. Are you going to register to vote . He said what is that . What about in your life, what is important to you . What are the problems that you face . So he said when he wants to purchase anything, he doesnt have money too. Its too expensive. Too expensive. And he wants them to help him. So if you care about that and you want things to be less expensive or you want to have more money or a better quality of life, why dont you vote . He said he wants to register now. Youre going to register . So this is going good . Yeah, this is good. So that was a small victory for that gentleman. Got one voter registered. I guess the question is how dout the blue wave to wash over new york harbor and out to Staten Island. Its getting people of color in growing immigrant communities actually out to vote and registered to vote in this largely white district but appealing to those democrats that would normally vote republican by talking about issues that they care about. On Staten Island the issues are not what democrats in manhattan might care about. Things like traffic, jobs. As you heard there, stuff that people sort of wake up and think about every day versus, i hate to say it, Elizabeth Warrens dna test or russia or the Supreme Court. Its just not what would win over many of the democratic voters out there. And the other thing that struck me is we talk so much about politics being nationalized now along the lines of what youre seeing. The republicans there, one of the comments they made to you in the pizzaria, for folks who dont know how isolated Staten Island is from the rest of new york city, they sort of being republican or voting republican is almost its locally motivated because thats their sort of bargaining chip within new york city in a way. They feel alienated from not just washington, d. C. , but ma t manhattan as a whole. That is an isolated community there that amongst themselves feel like they have their own thing going in new york. So the idea that they would just go democratic because the proximity or even because the Voter Registration breakdown is in favor of the democrats is not something on Staten Island for sure when youre out there that theyll tell you they want to do. But max rose, the democratic challenger, combat veteran, post 9 11, is working really hard to flip that district. I think its going to be an uphill battle for him. All politics is still local in some places at least. I love when you do those pieces. Thats great. Appreciate it. This just in on a story we were talking about earlier. The president tweeting moments ago about the disappearance of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Just spoke with the crown prince of saudi arabia who totally denied any knowledge of what took place in their turkish consulate. He was with secretary of state mike pompeo and told me he has already started and will have a full investigation into this matter. Answers will be forthcoming shortly. Well keep an eye on this story and be right back. Ory and be right back. Ally discover. In jellyfish. In Clinical Trials, prevagen has been shown to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. 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In two great flavors. 18. 18 different districts, 18 different races were looking at in the runup to tlaeks day, which is of course now three weeks away. Today were looking at the sixth district of kentucky. What are we talking about . Lexington, home to the university of kentucky. That Basketball Program there. Theyve won a National Title or two. The race, though, why is the race interesting . Why is the race on our radar . A couple reasons. Andy barr is the republican incumbent, his opponent amy mcgrath. She had the viral video a year ago, former fighter pilot, pulled off an upset in the democratic primary this year. Shes facing off against barr, this is a district democrats think they have a chance to pick up. You go back a little further its a district democrats have represented before, you have the suburbs around lexington, the university there, where democrats think they can have a high energy and mcgrath can overperform what they do in the more rural areas. The other reason were looking at this, when Election Night rolls around, this is the first poll closing we get is in kentucky so we start getting numbers from this district early. So keep in mind the sixth district of kentucky when Election Night rolls around. One of the first were going to get. Joining me now for more, mark murray. Mark, i know you have your rankings if you want to call them that. You put tiers together for the different house races. And youve given folks a sense how you see the landscape. Were talking about the sixth district of kentucky this is what you call a majority make or race. Yes, this is the reason its a majority maker its a 50 50 contest, both democrats and republicans view it as that. I think you can go into Election Night thinking that amy mcgrath or andy barr has a good shot of winning this. When you look at the good news for republicans, it is conceivable they win kentucky six on Election Night. The bad news is we end up having 23 races we have, steve, in our majority maker category, and there are a lot more districts in that majority maker category that probably look better for democrats right now than the kentucky six distrikt does. The way way to look at kentucky six, if democrats win it theyre well on their way to majority. They can still lose kentucky six and have ways to go. But if we see amy mcgrath is ahead, i think thats a sign of a good night for democrats three weeks from now. I was speaking to someone in a poll in that disticket, they say they have barr ahead by a point in that race. The other category, the most probable flip, you say the most probable seat for democrats to flip to republicans would be what . It would be the pennsylvania, due to the redistricting map. One would be district 7. You have susan wild, who according to most polling has an advantage in that race. Why this is so significant, you take the pennsylvania seven race as well as three other pennsylvania contests thats about 30 of what call the probable flips for democrats. If democrats win almost all of those 15 races and then from that majority maker which i have of 23, they only need to win ten or more to be able to get to that majority. They just need less than half, and thats showing the expanded battlefield and the advantage going into Election Night. There is another category, democratic held seats that republicans have a shot at. One would be what . Minnesota eight, a very rural part of minnesota. We recently saw a New York Times poll that has the republican ahead of the democrat. And this is significant because we always talk about that magic 23 number, but if republicans are able to win in minnesota eight and i give them pennsylvania 14 also, then all of a sudden democrats have to win 25 to net the 23. Mark murray, thanks for the time. Thanks, steve. 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Bush became famous for doing the same thing, here he is alongside lady bird johnson, the fords flashing rabbit ears behind barbara bush. That sense of humor rubbing off on his son. Proving when life leads you to the oval office you never stop being a dad. Thats does it for us. Al liis next. Supporting a thorough, transparent and timely investigation thats how the state department defines saudis kings commitment to finding out what happened to Jamal Khashoggi. Earlier mike pompeo met with the ki king. According to two sources the saudis are putting together an explanation that would absolve the crown prince, hes the one who runs saudi arabia. One of those individuals said he was told by those close to the saudi leadership that the kingdom will claim rogue operatives killed khashoggi during an interrogation that went arye. The idea of rogue operativesing this was something our own president said on his own yesterday. He has nothing planned so that gave him plenty of time to get on twitper p the latest tweets dealing with saudi arabia came last hour. Just spoke with
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