we begin tonight with the fear dominating the headlines. los angeles area schools closed today in response to what officials said was a credible threat of violence. it is the latest in a string of events at home and abroad that have americans focused on national security. in fact, 40% name national security and terrorism as their top issues for the federal government to address in the latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. all of this, of course, happening against the backdrop that the gop presidential candidates will hold for their final debate of 2015. nine candidates set to square off on the main stage tonight. less than seven weeks to go now before the iowa caucuses. this will be the first republican debate since the terror attacks in paris, also the shooting spree by a radicalized couple in san bernardino. the candidates are expected to focus heavily on national security issues. donald trump will once again be standing at the center podium. he holds a 27-point lead over ted cruz in yesterday's monmouth university poll. today, a new "washington post"/abc news poll suggests those numbers are no fluke. trump surging to his best lead in that poll ever. now 23 points ahead of cruz. we have team coverage of the event this evening. we begin with msnbc political correspondent, kasie hunt, who's following the ted cruz campaign and nbc's katy tur, following the trump campaign. nice to see you both tonight. katie, we know that regardless of what other people will say, i think it's pretty clear, we can say that donald trump will come out after this debate saying that he was the clear winner, that he did quite well. but there's often criticism for donald trump after a debate that he was somewhat short on specifics. is there a change at all from his campaign, in terms of the planning, going into this debate, to offer more specifics? >> reporter: his campaign is following the rule that they always follow, which is, donald trump is going to be donald trump. this has been working for them so far, so there's no indication that they're going to want to change paths at all. this vagueness that he's been able to put forward has helped him in the polls. people trust what he's saying. they get what he means when he talks about things, regardless of how specific he gets, the voters don't seem to care. they have the belief, this long-standing -- not long-standing, this very strong belief within them that says that donald trump will be able to find the appropriate people, the smartest people, the best people for the various jobs in washington, and he'll surround himself with them. and that's how he'll be able to run this country well. so specifics may not be his strong suit, but nobody in the electorate, so far, has been holding him to specifics. >> demanding that. >> katie -- excuse me, i'm going to take a little bit of water here for a second, ladies. there was a bit of a scuffle with a protester at an event last night, an audience member yelling out some pretty inappropriate things. talk to us a little bit more about what went down there? >> so what we're seeing at his rallies late, in the past few of them, there have been a number of protesters who have been trying to interrupt him at various points during his speech, to stop him in his tracks, make it sure so he can't get a good thread going, get a lot of attention. last night was the same thing. we saw a black lives matter protester try to interrupt things. he was dragged from the room pretty forcibly by trump security and the secret service. all the while, people at that event, people who are attending were screaming some pretty off-color things at this man, saying, "shoot him, he's a muslim," one man even said "sig heil." and we got this all on our nbc cameras. and it's been a long time coming with the campaign. they see it as an opportunity to get attention, to provoke the people at his rallies and the trump campaign is trying to put a lid on it. there are announcements at his rallies now that say, please don't harm the protesters. if somebody starts speaking out, instead of saying anything to them, start chanting "trump, trump, trump" loudly and drown them out as they're taken away. they even say, "don't hurt them." it's becoming an issue, the trump campaign sees that and are trying to put a lid on it, but his supporters, but the very at least, those who are attending his rallies aren't entirely listening. >> kasie, when it comes to ted cruz, expected to be a real focal point for donald trump tonight, and expected to get a little more airtime in terms of what we've seen in his movement. is there any different strategy for ted cruz coming into this debate? >> reporter: he's certainly making moves on stage because of those movements in the polls. you can anticipate there's going to be at least a few moments where we might see cruz and trump put at odds, maybe by the moderators. i think we can certainly expect some questions about that muslim ban that trump has proposed. and of course, cruz has been more careful in approaching that, than some of these other candidate who is have been willing to go after donald trump and criticize him. it will be interesting to see if they put cruz on the spot tonight on that. but i think that the fireworks really are going to focus between ted cruz and marco rubio here. i think you're going to see a lot of back and forth, particularly over foreign policy. as you mentioned, the first debate since paris, since san bernardino. it's really at the forefront of voters' minds. and marco rubio has been going after cruz aggressively on his defense voting record. so you have both this vote against the usa freedom act, that ultimately ended the metadata collection program, and also some votes against defense budgets, the rubio campaign is saying amounted to show votes. and i think we've really seen a shift with the events, news of the day, tragedies that we've seen, away from the more libertarian wing of the republican party. and that had gotten a lot of attention with rand paul previously, possibly coming back to hurt ted cruz tonight. >> kasie hunt and katy tur, thank you both. appreciate it. we'll be checking in with you, of course. see you later tonight. now on to nbc's halley jackson for a closer look at what to expect from marco rubio. halley, give us a sense, what's his strategy coming into tonight? >> reporter: if it ain't broke, don't fix it is a fair way to characterize it. you look at marco rubio's past performances in the debate. his campaign likes to say he's 4-0. this is somebody who is a communicator. he understands how to get a message across on a national stage. so i don't know that we will see much in terms of strategy shift from marco rubio. that said, when you come to preparations, for example, look at one of the big moments for marco rubio in the previous debates. it was that sort of line against jeb bush that seemed to silence bush. why did that happen? rubio was absolutely prepared that bush was going to come after him on that line of attack and rubio knew how he was going to respond. you look at what's going to happen tonight. ted cruz will almost certainly go after marco rubio on the issue of immigration. this is an area where marco rubio could be weak. it's an area where other campaigns believe that rubio will be weak with the electorate. rubio is going to be prepared to deflect that line of attack, and to potentially come after cruz from the right, when it comes to national security, when it comes to, as kasie was talking about, those lines on meta data. >> weh'll see a little bit of that matchup there. good to have you with us tonight, halley, thanks. i want to bring in now steve katniss. you wrote an article about the two fights to watch for tonight in the debate. two of those include donald trump, perhaps not surprising to a lot of people at home. >> right, absolutely. i think he's going to be the main featured attraction. the big question is, does ted cruz, basically trump's biggest threat right now, retaliate when trump inevitably whacks him? i think trump has been signaling in recent days that he is going to go after ted cruz. he did it at a rally in iowa on friday. he did it again on sunday talk shows is, on sunday. the question is, how does cruz respond, because cruz has been calibrating playing nice with trump recently, because he eventually wants to have those supporters fall into his camp, if trump implodes. >> but in some ways, too, doesn't trump have to be careful about that in terms of going after cruz? because he wants to pick off some of those supporters. >> yeah, i think, less so, though. because it really hasn't cost donald trump anything so far in this race for going at people, right? he's done it in almost every debate. he does it regularly on the trail and he brags about it. he says, you know, anyone who comes after me, they're on the losing end of this. they drop in the polls, they dropped off the race. we know he's not bashful and we know that cruz is on the rise in iowa. and if cruz can beat him in iowa, it sort of undercuts his whole rationale as he's a winner, right? he's able to winner everywhere. i'm winning everywhere in the polls. if he loses iowa, he knows that his narrative is undercut. so, i don't think he will be shy at going at cruz. >> what about the rubio/cruz matchup? >> the rubio/cruz matchup has been boiling for about a month now. it's been over national security, but also immigration. i've talked to, you know, both of these camps and they both are relishing the other one to make the first move. rubio's camp says, you know, we don't think we'll go at cruz, but if he comes at us, we want it, we embrace that fight. you hear sort of the same thing from cruz's camp. so i think that will be a fight that the moderator will push tonight, given their back and forth over the last couple of weeks, but who will really, you know, go at it? i think that's going to be one of the questions we're watching. >> in terms of -- we talk about these three front-runners, but there are obviously other people on stage with them tonight. jeb bush, who has spent millions, and we keep learning more and more about how much he's spent, but can't seem to break out. and also chris christie, do you expect either one of them to really make their mark tonight? >> reporter: you know, they have to. and they have nothing left to lose. i mean, especially if you're jeb bush. you know, you basically lost polling positions since the last debate. you're at 3, 4, 5%. anyone who's in single digits, i would throw carly fiorina, i'd throw ohio governor john kasich into that pack. they have to make a move. there's nothing left to lose right now. we're about 48 days from the iowa caucuses. so they have to. you know, chris christie is -- he's putting all of his cards into new hampshire, so there's a lot of expectations for him tonight. but, look, they all can't have a breakout moment, right? there's nine of them on the stage, there's three front-runners. at least six of them trying to have that breakout moment, to beat expectations, but there's only, you know, one ticket, usually, to have that breakout moment in a debate. will it be christie? will it be jeb? that's what they'll be fighting for. >> we will be watching and that will give us plenty to talk about tomorrow. david catanese, thank you. >> thanks, erica. >> while everyone is vying for this job of president of the united states, turns out it may not be the best thing for your health. a new study shows leading a nation can actually take years off of your life. the largest statistical study of its kind examined elections held in 17 countries over the last nearly 300 years and found, quote, elected heads of government lived 2.7 fewer years and experienced a 23% greater risk of premature death than the defeated office seekers. so consolation prize for the nominees being the biggest loser, could be the best thing that happens to you. just ahead, the fight against isis. hillary clinton outlining her strategy to fight terrorism here at home and overseas. also, big news today in the freddie gray case. a judge telling jurors to keep deliberating after they said they're deadlocked. and presidential politics colliding with economic policy. what to expect from the candidates tonight ahead of a major announcement tomorrow on interest rates. at planters we know how to throw a remarkable holiday party. just serve classy snacks and be a gracious host, no matter who shows up. do you like nuts? whfight back fastts tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue and neutralizes stomach acid at the source tum, tum, tum, tum smoothies! only from tums this just coming into nbc. we learned that l.a. public schools will open normally tomorrow. this comes after the district shut down the schools today after a bomb threat. the district asking more than 600,000 students to stay home. los angeles and new york schools received similar threatening e-mails. in new york, city leaders say the threat seemed bogus, so they decided to keep schools open. >> the language in the e-mail would lead us to believe that this is not a jihadist initiative. for example, that allah was not spelled with a capital "a." that would be incredible to think that any jihadist would not spell "allah" with a capital "a." the threat may be a homeland fan basically watching homeland supposed. it mirrors a lot of recent supposed on "homeland." >> pete justice joins us now with the latest on the threats and the response to them. this had people working all day long to figure out who was behind it and how serious it was. >> the how serious it was part has been pretty well determined. that it was a hoax. the who part is still being analyzed. officials have traced it to, they believe, a server, an e-mail server here in the united states that's popular with online pranksters. but they're still trying to determine who is the actual author of the e-mail that caused all this trouble in los angeles today. but it's been very well established, i think, now, that it's a hoax. and what happened here is that very similarly worded e-mails were sent to the school superintendents in new york and in los angeles. they were sort of custom-made to each school, but they basically said the same thing, which is, that the writer was a senior who had been bullied, had had enough, had an army of supporters, that had planted bombs in school lockers and backpacks, that had guns ready to shoot at people at the school. made some references to islam, as you heard the police commissioner said, and then some vague references to schools in new york and l.a. each message sent to the other independently. what we're told is that the school district officials in los angeles looked at this message, realized the situation they're in there with the santa barbara shooting, still very fresh in their memories, the fear that authorities hadn't determined whether the santa barbara gunman acted on their own, the thought that perhaps this santa barbara shooters had looked at schools as a possible target, so putting all this together, they decided to take the action. we're told that they then told the police this and the fbi, which had, in essence, recommended against this move because of the suggestion that it might be a hoax. but what the police -- or what the school officials have said in l.a. is they really couldn't take any chances. they realize the enormous inconvenience, but when the lives of children were at stake, they thought they had to be extra cautious. >> and that's right on the hills of san bernardino. so many people on edge in that area of the country. pete williams, thank you for joining us tonight. >> you bet. >> and we'll be right back with more. about a biologic... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira giving me new perspective. doctors have been prescribing humira for ten years. humira works for many adults. it targets and helps to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to ra symptoms. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. talk to your doctor and visit humira.com this is humira at work terror and foreign policy will take center stage at tonight's republican debate. and democratic front-runner hillary clinton is also focusing on fighting terror today. at a speech in minnesota just this afternoon, mrs. clinton laid out her counterterrorism strategy, focusing on how to defend and prevent radicalization here in the u.s., while maintaining core american values. >> it would be a cool irony, indeed, if isis can force families from their homes and also prevent them from finding new ones. so after rigorous screening, we should welcome families fleeing syria. the key is to prevent terrorists also from exploiting our kmags and endangering our security. this is not a clash of civilizations. this is a clash between civilization and barbarism and that's how it must be seen and fought. >> secretary of state john kerry, meantime, meeting with russian president vladimir putin in moscow today for comprehensive talks about ending the civil war in syria. a critical step in the fight against isis. >> on isil or daesh, rush and the united states agree that this is a threat to everybody, to every country, that there is no negotiation, and they leave no choice but for civilized nations to stand together and to fight and to push back and destroy them. >> let's turn now to msnbc military analyst and medal of honor recipient, colonel jack jacobs, and nina kresheva specializing in russian history and culture. good to have both of you with us. i want to look a little bit at what former secretary of state clinton laid out today for her plan to combat terror. she wants to shut down isis recruitment in the u.s., especially online, stop would-be jihadists from getting training overseas and foreign fighters from coming here. as most people would imagine, you want to discover and disrupt plots before being carried out, support law enforcement officers and support communities to fight against radicalization. colonel jacobs, when you look at her plan, a, what stands out to you as new? and b, how much of it do you think is going to make a difference if she were to implement it? >> well, none of it is new, if you've been talking to people who have been discussing this problem for a long time. in particular, getting muslim communities to stand up to jihadists, both in the united states and elsewhere, that's going to take a lot of work. but it's important and it's one of the only ways we're going to be able to combat terrorism. what's really interesting is that she's put it all together in one package. i don't think you've heard very much of this sort of thing from the administration. and part of the problem is that the administration is right now embroiled in trying to fight a war. in trying to solve tactical problems, rather than focusing on long-term objectives. but clinton's plan won't come to fruition either, unless you can -- unless she can get all of the players in the international stage, particularly those in the region, to participate. without that, you're not going to be able to stop any of the problems that currently beset both the united states and europe on the one hand and the middle east on the other. >> nina, as we've seen clearly, something does need to change. and this latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, just 30% of americans approve of the way president obama is handling the fight against isis. is there anything you heard today or anything that you have seen that could make a somewhat immediate and significant difference in this fight? >> you mean, in relations to the russians or general? >> in general. >> in general. well, i think they are starting to act faster, because before it was very long space between implementing a certain policy, for example, training rebels against jihadis, which actually didn't work out. but it took a long time for it to not work out and for that administration to admit it. i actually think that russian involvement in syria as of late august and september, very, very obviously, and, you know, bombing, technically, supposedly, isis. i think really pushes the united states to show that it does have a strategy, does have a policy, and russia cannot be the only player, which as ridiculous as it sounds, also is a good thing. but it's also a bad thing, because the united states must have its own policy rather than waiting for putin to steer somebody's hand and push people forward. because otherwise, it will be putin who calls all the jobs. >> colonel jacobs brought up the thought of the importance of having those surrounding nations and the neighbors be a part of that strategy. we know defense secretary carter is headed to the region, to ideally recruit some help. what are the chances of that happening? it doesn't seem that many are that interested. >> many doesn't seem to be interested, but isis is a very big problem. and this is something where putin actually is strong, because, he has been saying that isis a big problem, and russia doesn't have to be your enemy. so now, the way the kremlin now sees it, that's the world coming to a realization. and maybe it is possible, because putin is not a leader that is entirely popular, but he does have some leverage. it's small leverage in the region, but he's a patient man. he's planning to stay in the kremlin for a long time. and so there's little steps that russia may be able to provide in this common fight, coordinated fight against isis, actually could be helpful. but it would take a very, very detailed and very nuanced diplomacy, which i think, actually, secretary kerry has shown in his latest visit. >> so colonel jacobs, in terms of coordinating that support, which i know you and i have talked about a number of times, is so necessary, what does secretary carter need to do to try to shore up at least some, at least a little bit more support? >> oaks, i don't think he can possibly do what he needs to do, because i don't think he has the authority to do that. don't forget that the two strongest people in the region, who could actually affect things, saudi arabia and iran, are at loggerheads themselves over control and participation in what's going on in the middle east. i don't think you're going to get them on the same sheet of music, and that's what's required. the only way you can do that is with incredible skill and diplomacy, and i don't think -- i don't think we have that at the moment. there's something else that nina mentioned, when she suggested -- she asked whether or not you were talking about putin, and her first response, i smell a deal, you know? we've reneged on our demand that assad leave. it must be a very bitter pill for the white house to swallow. and now kerry is there to talk to putin, to do a deal. and that's the only way anything will happen in that region. you can even take it a step further and say, if this ever is going to bear fruition, you're going to have something like you had in the mid-40s, at casa blanca, when the area was carved up. they may be trying to carve up syria, and that may be the only way this thing will end. >> that would be quite the development. and i have a feeling, if and when that happens, we'll be speaking with the both of you again. appreciate your time tonight, colonel jack jacobs and nina khrushch khrushch khrushcheva. jurors considering the fate of an officer involved in the freddie gray case are deadlocked. we have the latest tonight from baltimore. and it has been nearly a decade since we saw the fed raise interest rates. could they be poised to do it again. and what could it mean for the economy and the 2016 race? stay with us. so what's your news? i got a job! i'll be programming at ge. oh i got a job too, at zazzies. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends ooh and ahh) i can make hospitals run more efficiently... this isn't a competition! hey! so i'm looking at my bill and my fico credit score's on here. yeah! we give you your fico credit score. for free! awesomesauce! the only person i know that says that is... lisa? julie? we've already given more than 175 million free fico credit scores to our cardmembers. apply today at discover.com we are following a developing story tonight in baltimore, where the jury is deadlocked in the case of william porter, the first police officer to be tried for the death of freddie gray. gray died in police custody in april after suffering a spinal jury in the back of a police transport van. his death set off days of transports and riots. today, the judge sent the jury back to deliberate, asking them to re-examine their own views after they said they were deadlocked. the judge asking for a unanimous agreement. deliberations wrapped up for the day in the last hour. they pick back up tomorrow morning. joinings now, nbc national reporter, trymaine lee, who's been covering the trial in baltimore. good to see you tonight. how is the news that the jury is deadlocked and sent back by the judge, how is that playing out in baltimore tonight? >> about 30 minutes ago, i spoke with one protester, who said that he wanted this officer, william porter, as well as the others, to not only be fired, but charged in freddie gray's death. this protester said, it's actually a good thing they can't come to an agreement, that perhaps there are some in that room who are on the side of protesters and many other folks in this city who want accountability in freddie gray's death. it is actually interesting that not only through the whole second day, that this jury said they were deadlocked. if that continues, the judge could declare a mistrial. again, we're not at that point yet, but that's what could happen. what's also interesting, they decided to close up shop at 5:30. they could have gone through the night if they wanted to come up with a final decision. they didn't do that. another thing that folks in this city have been concerned about is what about any unrest? we saw what happened last time. city officials say, you know, we don't want to make anyone anxious. yet at the same time, we already see other county agencies, other law enforcement amassing officers and artillery around the community. and so, again, it's adding to this sense of not only anxiety, but anticipation. and so while we're only in the second day of deliberations, and they're at loggerheads, this community is still bracing for what could be a disappointing decision for many. >> you talk about the sense of anxiety and people wondering what will happen. we know that the ceo of the school sent out a note saying, basically, we don't want anybody to -- we'll use this situation as an educational tool for our students, imploring people not to resort to violence and walk out. that was met with a response by the aclu saying, hey, hold on. congressman elijah cummings also speaking out today. let's take a listen. >> as emotionally satisfying or devastating, the future of our community will not be defined at the moment of the verdict, but it will be defined in the days and years that follow. >> and that, of course, the concern. is that concern, though? is the sense in the city that that concern is well-placed, or are people putting the cart before the horse on this one? >> i think what bothers a lot of people is this kind of presumption that things will erupt in violence. i've heard it in baltimore, in ferguson, and around the country. when folks say, let's put the focus on the violence that already happened. the violence perpetrated by police officers. that violence. the kind of violence that is perpetrated every single day in beleaguered communities across this country. not what could be. and in this case, the aclu and others are concerned that that letter will have a chilling effect on students and other people's first amendment rights, to go out and voice their opinions and kind of put, you know, the fire under the feet of power and the institutions in this country, especially when you look at what happened in baltimore last time, it was also a logistical thing. city officials shut down the public transit authority, leaving dozens and dozens of young people out on the street, out in front of the mall, the day of freddie gray's death, which created this kind of cocktail of uncertain feelings, anxiety, anger, which ultimately spilled into rioting. and so, again, so many people in this community, they are anxious, yet they are cautious at the same time. wanting to, on one hand, you know, express themselves if need be. on the other hand, be allowed to do so. but still, after what happened last time, city officials, many business owners, and many residents are just fearful of what could be. they remember the flames from last time and they don't want to see them again. >> msnbc national reporter trymaine lee, thanks for being with us. appreciate it. >> thank you. coming up, republicans set to face off in just a little over two hours. could the economy be a winning issue for republicans to focus on in 2016? plus, with donald trump surging in the polls, will any of his rivals dare to take him on head-to-head tonight? stay with us. when a moment turns romantic why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis and a $200 savings card nobody's hurt, but there will you totastill be pain. new car. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do? drive three quarters of a car? now if you had liberty mutual new car replacement, you'd get your whole car back. i guess they don't want you driving around on three wheels. smart. with liberty mutual new car replacement, we'll replace the full value of your car. see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. [ sneezing ] a cold can make you miserable. luckily, alka seltzer plus cold and cough liquid gels. rush liquid fast relief to your tough cold symptoms. fast, powerful liquid gels from alka seltzer plus count on being slammed this hwith orders. we're getting slammed with orders. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. totally slammed! introducing real-time delivery notifications. one more reason this is our season. ♪ (vo) some call it giving back. we call it share the love. during our share the love event, get a new subaru, and we'll donate $250 to those in need. bringing our total donations to over sixty-five million dollars. and bringing love where it's needed most. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. can't afford to let heartburn get in the way? try nexium 24hr, now the #1 selling brand for frequent heartburn. get complete protection with the new leader in frequent heartburn. that's nexium level protection. as the candidates gear up for their fifth debate tonight, the focus remains squarely on terror and national security. the economy, though, is still top of mind for many americans. tomorrow, the fed decides whether to raise interest rates in the u.s. for the first time since 2006. unemployment is down, the markets are up. yet there is also criticism the u.s. economy is growing too slowly, an average of 2% per year. will we hear anything new tonight from the candidates on the economy? joining me now, annie linski of "the boston globe" and jacky e kucini kucinich, as well as ken fogle of politico. good to have you with us tonight. we know the moderates will be controlling the questions on the economy, but there has been some criticism over the last few debates that there hasn't been enough talk about the economy, especially from a republican field. annie, is it your sense that this will be in any way a bigger focus tonight? >> you know, i think, like you said, terrorism is really going to be the focus tonight. that's where the candidates have been. and on the republican side, a slowing economy isn't actually so bad from them, when they're thinking about getting into the general election. it's really the democratic candidates that are watching the fed the closest and are really wondering what they're going to do and hoping, perhaps, that yellin doesn't, as expected, raise the interests tomorrow. >> and likely hoping that the interest rate isn't raised, jackie. because if, in fact, that is raised, of course, it could ultimately, and rather quickly hit the wallets of americans. >> that's right. and they are -- they're eager for that not to happen. >> so, they're -- i have everybody crossing their fingers on that one. there is a cbs "new york times" poll that found 82% of republicans found they're either very or somewhat confident in donald trump's ability to make the right decisions about the economy. that's an astounding number, jackie, to see 82%. is that surprising at all? >> you know, donald trump is such a successful businessman, he really projects that confidence. and particularly when you look at his own balance sheets. so it isn't really surprising that they really trust him when it comes to the economy. he's been very critical of janet yellin and has called her a dove when it comes to the interest rates and has sort of blamed obama, as well, so it will be interesting to see if this does get brought up, but it is worth noting that chris christie actually said that raising the rates would be a good thing. so, you know, there isn't a lot of deviation among republicans on this particular topic, but as you stated, the economy is top of mind for a lot of americans. >> and it also, in many ways, ties into these fears that we've seen in terms of terror. they can ultimately impact travel. it can impact almost every sector of the economy. so, ken, do you see a connection being made between the two tonight at all? >> potentially. i think that the bigger sort of theme that the federal reserve is potential and likely at this point is this deep distrust of government. other candidates have taken a shot at that theme again, and it really is a centerpiece of donald trump's campaign rhetoric. jackie mentioned that he's been critical of janet yellin, because it really speaks to this deep concern among the base of the republican party. and even to some extent, among the base of the democratic matter that the economy is rigged and that the fed is this black box that's making decisions about the economy that affect millions of americans' lives and their pocketbooks, without any real accountability or transparency. that's what i've seen rand paul and ted cruz pick up on this idea that the fed should be audited. i think we should hear some rhetoric about that, maybe even some rhetoric on the more extreme edge about going back to the gold start if the interest rate hike comes up at the debate. >> there's also going to be, often oftentimes, we think about the economy and money and policy. this is also terrain that is ripe, of course, for a little bit of fact-checking. how much of that do you think will be needed tonight after the debates, especially if we do delve into topics dealing with the economy and dealing with a lot of dollar signs? >> one thing we've learned from this 2016 race, and particularly this republican field is fact-checking is something that absolutely needs to happen after each one of these debates. so i think that's absolutely right. and i do think that ken is right. when you look at how much distrust there really is for the federal government and for the fed to be able to make this recovery felt at all levels and the people who donald trump are talking to are the folks that haven't, you know, felt the recovery despite the fact that unemployment is down and all of these indicators are suggesting the fed is going to raise the rates, the donald trump wing of the republican party hasn't felt that. and i think that's where you're going to hear some of the angst. >> and also, jackie. i would imagine you could make the case, this also speaks to a large portion of supporters of candidates like donald trump, who do feel, to annie's point, really alienated. they have not been able to reap the benefits. and in fact, in many ways, they see their way of life and what they have built for their family eroding, rather quickly. >> donald trump has tapped into a group of people that are really angry at the federal government, they don't trust them. and what he is promising is to restore that trust in government and to shake things up. they didn't see it with obama and they haven't seen it with mitt romney, who a lot of them voted for last cycle, because he wasn't able to win. they see donald trump as a winner, partially because of his rhetoric and he tells them every 14 seconds that he's a winner. so i think that that -- you're going to hear more of that. donald trump is going to be donald trump. of that, we can be certain tonight. >> that is the one thing we can all be clear about, donald trump will be donald trump and he will remind us after the debate how well he did. ken, what's the one thing you're looking for tonight? >> well, who's going to take on donald trump. generally, we've seen a number of different candidates try to position themselves as the guy who's going to -- or the gal who's going to take down donald trump, but it hasn't really worked. carly fiorina had a really good back and forth with him at one debate that seemed to catapult her. obviously, she's fallen off dramatically. rand paul at different times has taken a run at him. hasn't really worked out. obviously, this immigration plan that he came out with to ban all muslims from entering the united states seems like such a prime target, so extreme. you've heard jeb bush come out against it. so, a potential have you no shame, sir, type of moment from one or the other candidates towards donald trump, centered around that muslim immigration play. >> and jackie kucinich and annie linsey, thank you for all being with us tonight. >> thank you, erica. "star wars" comes to a galaxy called hollywood. the premiere literally stops traffic in los angeles. plus, from science fiction to science fact. the latest mission to the international space station now underway. stay with us. this is claira. to prove to you that aleve is the better choice for her she's agreed to give it up. that's today? we'll be with her all day to see how it goes. after the deliveries, i was ok. now the ciabatta is done and the pain is starting again. more pills? seriously? seriously. all these stops to take more pills can be a pain. can i get my aleve back? for my pain, i want my aleve. check your sunday paper for extra savings on aleve. [meow mix jingle slowly anright on cue.cks] [cat meows] ♪meow, meow, meow, meow... it's more than just a meal, it's meow mix mealtime. with great taste and 100% complete nutrition, it's the only one cats ask for by name. redid you say 97?97! yes. you know, that reminds me of geico's 97% customer satisfaction rating. 97%? helped by geico's fast and friendly claims service. huh... oh yeah, baby. geico's as fast and friendly as it gets. woo! geico. expect great savings and a whole lot more. it's a highly thercontagious disease.here. it can be especially serious- even fatal to infants. unfortunately, many people who spread it may not know they have it. it's called whooping cough. and the cdc recommends everyone, including those around babies, make sure their whooping cough vaccination is up to date. understand the danger your new grandchild faces. talk to your doctor or pharmacist about you and your family getting a whooping cough vaccination today. at&t knows the best kind of holiday... is the kind where everyone gets what they wished for. make this holiday extra happy when you buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones... like the samsung galaxy s6. buy one get one free. so spread some cheer. and capture every minute of it. right now at at&t, buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones. when emergency room doctors choose an otc pain reliever for their patients muscle, back and joint pain. the medicine in advil is their #1 choice. nothing is stronger on tough pain than advil. relief doesn't get any better than this. advil. the force was strong in los angeles at the world premiere of one of the most anticipated movies of all times. "star wars: the force awakens." disney, which bought the franchise in 2012, shut down a half-mile section of the boulevard on monday night. the initial reviews, pretty positive, with cheers breaking out at different moments. that film, of course, hits theaters nationwide on friday, on just over 4,000 screens. in other space news, but from this galaxy, three astronauts arrived safely at the international space station today. the crew representing russia, britain, and the u.s. launched from kazakhstan. they docked successfully about 6 1/2 hours later. the arrival hit one snag after unspecified complications thwarted attempts to dock the ship automatically, but there they are. the scientists will now embark on a six-month mission. in this modern world of swiping, one young man looking for love is taking a rather low-tech approach to finding his match. 24-year-old trainer ethan reno crashed a local weather report while jogging shirtless beside lake michigan on a rainy sunday night in chicago. because, of course, he's the awkward run-in to announce to the world, he's just a man looking for love. >> i love running in the rain and i'm also single, so -- >> all right! we're asking the ladies of chicago to give wgn a call. >> he may also like pia coladas. the interaction has gone viral with over 3 million views is and 20,000 shares on facebook. coming up, a behind the scenes look at the gop nomination fight. it can be combative, contenti s contentious, and we'll talk to an author giving you a front row seat to the highs and lows. when heartburn hits fight back fast tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue and neutralizes stomach acid at the source tum, tum, tum, tum smoothies! only from tums just serve classy snacks and bew a gracious host,iday party. no matter who shows up. do you like nuts? crunch time coming up in presidential politics. ahead of tonight's debate, what's driving each of the candidates? how are they dealing with the success and the setbacks of the campaigns? up next, we'll speak with the author of a book looking deep inside the gop, pulling back a bit of a curtain for us tonight after the break. they come into this iworld ugly and messy. ideas are frightening because they threaten what is known. they are the natural born enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, they become something beautiful. if you have high blood pressure many cold medicines may raise your blood pressure. that's why there's coricidin® hbp. it relieves cold symptoms without raising blood pressure. so look for powerful cold medicine with a heart. coricidin® hbp. discover card. hooh, you're real?? you know i'm real! at discover, we're always here to talk. good, 'cause i don't have time for machines. some companies just don't appreciate the power of conversation! you know, i like you! i like you too! at discover, we treat you like you'd treat you. get the it card and talk to a real person. and they're all coming after me. i heard today, i'm watching, i'm saying, man, this is like crazy. who's going to attack trump first? will it be this one? you know, he's taken down seven so far. you know, if you look, so far, everyone that's attacked me has gone right down the tube, so that's good. >> donald trump there, speaking at a rally last night in las vegas. trump's gop rivals may not attack him at tonight's debate, but not because they're afraid of sinking in the polls, because they want to get their own messages out. they want to give this last debate of the year everything they've got to improve their own prospects. in fact, my next guest says the worst thing for donald trump's candidacy is for everyone to ignore him. mckay is a senior political writer at buzzfeed and joins me now with a behind-the-scenes look at tonight's debate and frankly the campaigns in general. he's the author of a new book called "the wilderness: deep snds the republican party's combative, contentious, chaotic quest to take back the white house." nice to have you with us tonight. >> thanks for having me. >> you bring up a good point. part of a reason -- and we see this a lot with ted cruz -- that he's not going after donald trump is because the minute you go after trump, it takes the focus off of you and puts it back on donald trump. that's much easier said than done. >> and that's the thing to remember. when donald trump is back on stage saying, who's going to come after me, who's going to attack me, he's baiting them, he wants them to come after him. because the entire narrative trump has sold to his base and the republican electorate that he's the one kind of crusading outsider, truth teller, and the entire political establishment and the media and everyone in washington is scared of him, so they're attacking him because they're trying to take him down. so what that means is every time that somebody on a debate stage or in the media or really anywhere kind of attacks him or criticizes him or fact-checks him, it only serves to reinforce his message, that he's the one, you know, the one true champion of the people, and everyone else is part of this conspiracy to take him down. so, yeah, if we -- if he was suddenly just ignored, if every republican up on stage tonight just totally forgets about him, ignores him, and the media, you know, buried any mention of trump in the seventh or eighth paragraph of his stories, that's probably the worst thing that could happen to him. >> probably not going to happen. >> no. here we are talking about it. >> here we are talking about it. exactly. you spent, in putting this book together, so much time speaking with the different campaigns and the strategists, all behind the scenes. and there can actually be a lot of jockeying behind the scenes. it's not just the head-to-head we see between candidates in the public eye. do you still see that same amount in 2016, or has even that part of this race changed this time around? >> oh, no, definitely. well, the book kind of open opens on election night in 2012 and follows this cast of characters and candidates as we're kind of jockeying for position and trying to basically take control of the republican party and remake it in their image. and like a lot of that stuff you saw publicly, right, like kind of -- the iconic moments of like filibusters and public clashes and feuds, but a lot of the stuff took place behind the scenes. and i have to say, if you read the book, a lot of these guys are up to a lot of stuff you don't realize. and that's continued into 2016. it started to seep now into public view. ted cruz and marco rubio have been battling it out. some of the others are kind of, are now getting their dukes up. but still, the most vicious stuff is happening behind the scenes, behind closed doors, in meetings or private meetings or secret meetings with operatives and fund-raisers and donors. and that's where a lot of this stuff gets hashed out, and that's what i try to kind of show to voters. because i think it works knowing how this actually all works. >> it's good to know how the sausage is made. so give us a sense, what's one little nugget about how vicious this can get? >> so one of the stories i tell in the book is how jeb bush, who for a long time was kind of a mentor to marco rubio, obviously, both of them came up through florida politics, and was a close friend and ally to him. at the beginning of this year, when jeb decided he was going to run for president, he and his team decided he wanted to clear the republican field. kind of keep all challengers off the race. and that included rubio and i report that one of the things that they tried to do to freeze rubio off the race is to meet privately with power donors in the party and float rumors about what they called rubio's zipper problem. these are totally unsubstantiated rumors about mistresses and secret love children and things like that. and the idea being, he's a risky bet, you don't want to endorse him. you don't want to get behind him. and obviously, the rubio camp, when they found out about this is pretty furious, but none of this stuff had happened in public. it's all behind closed doors, and it really does show how vicious and mean and personal these things can get. >> appreciate you pulling back the curtain on a little bit of it. thanks for being with us tonight. enjoy the debate. >> thank you. >> thanks for watching "msnbc live." i'm erica hill. see you right back here tomorrow night at 6:00 p.m. eastern. "hardball" starts right now. the fight before christmas. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in las vegas for the last republican presidential debate of 2015. it's fight night in vegas, expect a hot one. donald trump is towering on fear, towering on terror fears. he takes center stage tonight. as the candidates battle, authorities are searching more than 900 schools o out in los angeles after a bomb threat from someone claiming to be an islamic terrorist got to city to shut down their entire school system. it was later determined to be a hoax. trump is riding those fears, of course. he is amassed a commanding lead in another poll out today. ok