Transcripts For MSNBCW Morning Joe 20120410

have heard newt gingrich talk. >> they should repeal the dodd/frank bill. they should appeal obama care. we will have the first permanent base on the moon. >> and talk. >> a vicious negative -- >> now, how much would you pay for him to shut up? this election, there's only one candidate who promises to stop talking for $4.5 million. newt gingrich. make it worth his while. >> april 10th. welcome to "morning joe." >> that means one thing and one thing only? >> is t.k. back? >> t.k. is back. >> all right. >> he was in scranton yesterday. >> okay. with us on set, we have time magazine analyst mark halperin. msnbc political analyst john heilemann and professor at nyu, harold ford jr. >> my gosh. >> my goodness, it's the family. >> the family is here. how are you guys doing? >> did you survive your birthday? >> i joke about the kids all the time, but i got the nicest, nicest, nicest -- >> i went in and deleted all that stuff. >> did you really? did you have to go in and delete stuff? >> let's leave it there. too early. >> did you pay people to say those nice things about me? >> no. >> that's fine. my family gives money on my birthday. i got so many nice things. nice things. >> news? >> i want to ask these guys a quick question. in my office at home, i get the whole ad with all the reviews and everything. i know the guys so i feel like a big shot. they come in and they sit down in my office and i go, mark halperin once sat in that chair. it's like they are all impressed by it. >> whatever. >> so, what happens after the parade moves through town? like, that was a big -- let's put a bow on this thing. it was like a big, big event for hbo, wasn't it? >> it's still airing. the parade hasn't passed yet. >> great viewings. john wasn't it the biggest movie in years? >> i think they are close to the numbers, yeah. it's the most watched movie on hbo. >> in the context of the vice president. it's a fair amount of focus on it. >> still shaping what's going on this year. were you excited? happy? >> couldn't have been more pleased. >> happy and excited. >> overjoyed. >> our lives are over. we are done. >> this is useless. >> there's the whole 2012 thing. >> oh, yeah. >> there's a segment called news and reviews. you can talk about this then. >> in the washington post/abc news poll filled with data. >> so funny you should say that. >> anyway we could learn more about that? >> yeah. if the election was held today. president obama is beating mitt romney, 51% to 44% among registered voters. he beats santorum 52% to 42%. he holds a sizable lead over romney including women's issueious, international affairs, health care and romney leads on energy policy just outside the margin of error. it's more competitive in jobs in the economy. in job creation, they are in a tie on who can better handle the economy. on handling the federal deficit. romney has a double digit lead. president obama is more likable by a margin of 54% to 26%. >> let's start with those numbers. harold ford, the old beer question, who would you rather have a beer with? barack obama is going to have it thrown his way here. how significant -- you know? >> it's a big number. it's almost 30 or 40 point lead. >> it's a huge gab. >> at any point in the campaign, especially seven months before a campaign, it's a big, big number. it was on last night and i was flipping the channel before going to bed. to have that lead on likability, it can overcome some of the weaknesses. it's not a surprise he wins that. the number one issue, the top two issues are the economy and the debt. the double digit lead romney ordinary reasons there for the time being is a positive for him. the more he makes bone-headed comments or ill-advised comments about his own lifestyle, about the state of affairs from different constituencies the more it grows and the likelihood of obama goes up as well. >> mark, would you look at this slide? this is the one area where the president isn't doing as well. he dominates "the washington post"/abc news poll in all but what matters to voters, handling the economy and creating jobs. it's a wash here. >> i ain't good at much, but i have my finger on conventional wisdom. it used to be in a bad economy, a president couldn't win a re-election. if you look at the poll, it shows what matches the conventional wisdom. romney has a chance to win not because of economic numbers but the chance that he's that far behind on health care are low. once he tightens up the other areas with the economy, he's got a chance. >> is this the equivalent of shooting and finding yourselves down by eight points? so many error that is have been unfocused on message. do you subscribe to mark's point of view? >> certainly. there's no question, romney has deficits, i don't mean the federal deficit, but deficits in the polling. he can fix those problems. if he shoots 50% from the field does he find himself at halftime? we don't know the answer to that question. romney could become a better candidate. the economic conditions could continue to be flat or worse and the door is open for him. he's got bigger problems with hispanic voters, i think. he can win this. he has to be better than he's been. >> if you were him, you would look at these numbers and say, we are in this thing. i think your analogy is right, if you shoot 15% and down by ten, you have three-point shooters on your team, you feel good. >> if you brought a great coach in. but that leads to, the second half is going to be much better. they have a disciplined guy. let me ask you guys, you are writing a book about the 2012 election. i'm going to ask the same question we asked about the obama white house when things were going badly. who is in charge? before ed came on board, who was in charge? it seemed like a muddled mess and the messaging was bad. some of the things mitt talked about were unspeakable. you wouldn't get away with that in a congressional campaign. i ask this question because does it speak to a larger question with romney? does he say i'm the ceo, here is my board, i'm going to make the decisions with input from everybody? >> it's a smaller team. they are not big. they don't have a lot of people. they wanted to keep costs down. romney doesn't trust -- >> who is in charge? >> stevens i think is largely in charge. >> is that your take? >> yeah. again, to be fair to those guys, we said in december, four months ago, if you looked at the campaign throughout 2011, the conventional wisdom was the romney campaign was a better run operation than four years ago. people in december were saying -- >> that's not saying a lot. >> they looked good in december. they had a bad few months. there's no question they need to bring in senior people. >> ed is a good example of someone they are bringing in to remediate the problems they had. >> who's been in charge of messages pre ed? >> i think you have to keep in mind the achievement of romney becoming the nominee. i think the president is the favorite. he's a talented incumbent. romney is a northeastern mormon guy. >> moderate. >> he passed a universal health care in massachusetts. it's an accomplishment he was able to win the republican nomination. >> we have a closer look at what voters are thinking in some of the swing states. the third way global strategy group polled independent voters in florida, pennsylvania and virginia. the poll finds president obama with a slight lead over romney with more than a third of the voters undecided. the president's favoribility rating is at 49% with this group while romney is 41%. >> harold, what do you think of that? >> 36% suggests two things with me. they are not comfortable with president obama. >> why do you say that? >> they have seen him for four years. he won independents by a large margin. they are not with the republicans. now, it boils down to what is said this morning. can governor romney create enough comfort and confidence around him, and his team on issues that matter to voters? you have to think as heilman and mark said, he has a shot like anyone before. bush is not going to be president like four years ago. it's unlikely sarah palin will be chosen again. john mccain is not going to be as dominant a force. he'll be a supporter, but not the nominee. take them out and you have one heck of a race. >> there's no question the personality people have seen in romney, over the course of this campaign is not as attractive as his personality. >> no, it's not. he's a really likable guy. >> there's a huge gap there. the likability number, you can't win with that gap. the question is, can they display him in a way because personality matters more than issues in this. will people see more of what he's like? >> how would you counter that? if you were advising ed or asked to come on the campaign -- >> i think a 40-point gap is big. some will close naturally. how would you address it? >> i would tell him to be himself and if that is a dull guy that fixes things, then that's what he should do. it's what he is. he's a dull guy that knows how to fix things. this economy needs fixing. it's been in disrepair for 30 years. let mitt be mitt. >> check out his blog on politico. >> there you go. i basically said the same thing. i would focus on things he's done very, very well, whether it's bain capital or 2002 olympics or working in the state of massachusetts. two, i would get a camera into his house. show him interacting with his family. i suppose mitt will be stiff and awkward for the first 40 hours. you know what? we are going to keep the cameras on until you start being yourself. we have said it here a lot, mika, anybody that has met romney's wife, anybody that's met his five boys -- >> amazing. >> they are a great family. they really are. there's not a person in america that wouldn't love them to be their next door neighbor. they are good, decent people. when you walk into that home, you say this doesn't happen by accident. there's a great dad at the head -- >> that's absolutely true. >> it's a likability issue. in that 41st hour, he's magical. >> okay. >> everybody that has talked to him that's known him, that's another thing about him. we could find a lot of political candidates on the national level, you can go back many years and find people that worked with him closely throughout their lives that don't say nice things about them. good luck finding people that worked with romney at bain or the 2002 olympics that are going to say he's a terrible human being. he lies, he cheats. you don't hear that. he is a good, decent man. >> you talk to them about the romney who most of the country knows and they are mystified. they don't know why we can't see the person they have. >> i want to get one last news story in. i'm going to now. >> did you really pay people to write nice things about me? >> president obama will be addition discussing economic -- the buffett rule that requires the wealthiest 30% of americans to pay more taxes. it faces tough opposition from republicans. yesterday, jay carney said it's political theater. >> the piece of legislation we are talking about here on its face has broad support across the country from americans of all political persuasion. there's an opportunity here because of the 60 vote threshold to demonstrate by some republicans, if they choose to listen to their constituents and agree with the legislation. this is a challenge because we have faced this opposition. we have also seen on a variety of occasions a willingness to back away from positions and maybe we'll see some of that in this case. >> the buffett rule, which some condemn as class warfare will be a key campaign issue. they held a conference call yesterday touting the bill and having romney release more tax returns. they show the former massachusetts governor paid close to 15% tax rate. lower than most middle class americans. >> carney said it's not pure politics. is he right or is this a political move? >> it's partly politics and partly, as he said, a piece of policy that a lot of americans approve of. the political dimension to it is clear. i think it's a significant problem for romney. it's a popular proposal that illuminates and opens the door to a critique he's vulnerable on with the problems of his tax returns and the way he's had trouble talking about his personal financial wealth. >> is this a good idea? >> i'm not crazy about this kind of politics. the buffett rule. there's a difference between a guy making a million a year and warren buffett. if you want to go after him, you have to raise the capital gains rate. he's paying 15%. not because it's the high marginal rate. i think you have to think about this differently. i understand the political appeal to this. the secondary question -- >> should we raise the capital gains rate? >> there's a legitimate argument. go 15% to 20% or higher on the money buffett makes on his investments. that being said, the secondary question, which i think romney will ask is if you do all these things, how much money will you raise toward paying down the debt? there's a fairness argument and how do you pay down the debt argument? a guy like romney and buffett should pay more taxes. we should raise the capital gains rate to go after them. second, how do you pay down the debt? this alone won't solve the problem. >> all right. coming up, we are going to bring in congressman paul ryan and also senior adviser to the president's re-election campaign, david axelrod. up next, mike allen joins us here on set. >> good. >> with a first look at the political playbook. first bill karins with a look at the weather. >> i don't know if i have shown you hail this big with this much impact. you can take a reason and watch. look at the water in the river. those are hailstones the size of grapefruits falling out there. that was in oklahoma yesterday. very impressive stuff. that shatters windshields. let's talk about the forecast concerns. yesterday, fire popping up, connecticut, staten island. high fire danger from new york city southward. if fires form in the brush this afternoon, they will spread rapidly. as far as rainfall, not much. it's a dry day out there. the only shower activity, up state new york to new england. dry from boston to d.c. another breezy afternoon. a few thunderstorms dallas to denver. a chilly day in chicago. anybody traveling to the west coast, it's going to rain in california. that's strange. they need it themselves out there. you are watching "morning joe." ♪ [ acoustic guitar: slow ] [ sighs ] [ announcer ] all work and no play... will make brady miss his favorite part of the day. ♪ [ upbeat ] [ barking ] [ whines ] that's why there's beneful playful life, made with energy-packed wholesome grains... and real beef and egg. to help you put more play in your day. beneful. play. it's good for you. hi, i just switched jobs, and i want to roll over my old 401(k) into a fidelity ira. man: okay, no problem. it's easy to get started; i can help you with the paperwork. um...this green line just appeared on my floor. yeah, that's fidelity helping you reach your financial goals. could you hold on a second? it's your money. roll over your old 401(k) into a fidelity ira and take control of your personal economy. this is going to be helpful. call or come in today. fidelity investments. turn here. ♪ we now have an example of what newt gingrich, how he wasted $5 million. here is how. look at this. >> rib dispensing podium. >> sign up for a business led program so 99 -- giving us the best trained work force in the world. this has been a comedy segment. >> 25 past the hour. missed that one. let's look at the morning papers. we start with the wall street journal. 18 months after the launch, instagram has been purchased. it has no revenue, but has 30 million users. the boston globe, nearly $7 million. stop it now. >> that's fantastic. >> we like scott brown. >> i like him too, but she should win. >> she raised a lot of money, $7 million double the amount of incumben incumbents. 2.5 million of 36% of her donations came from within massachusetts. you know, i say we are sort of playing this, i'm a little bit country, you're a little bit rock and roll, donnie and marie thing. they are great. >> it's an exciting race. >> it is. >> i don't think it will get negative. i don't. >> you don't? >> i don't. i don't think they are going to trash each other. there are enough issues dividing them it can be a clean, hard fought race. >> he's great but sorry, she's fantastic. >> she's great, but he's fantastic. >> the "titanic" set sail 100 years ago today. rare events played a role in the catastrophe. it created record ocean tides which might explain why the ship encountered so much ice. a second theory, it created ideal conditions for a mirage that would have hid the iceberg. >> okay. you know -- >> a gps. >> i never saw the movie. did you see the movie? >> yes, joe. >> i think everyone in america saw the movie. i know what happens in the end. now it's out in 3-d. >> i can't see that? isn't that with the celine dionne song? you lose me there. they are on the front of the thing, they die. okay. >> it's like "passion of the christ." i read the book. serious. >> talk about your research for that movie because you covered it on "scarborough country." >> i read his e-book. >> "inside the circus." god bless you. >> there it is, political playbook 2012. mike allen is here with the morning playbook. how is the e-book going? >> fantastic. thank you, "morning joe." >> this week, the republican super pack, american cross roads is going to target independents with attack ads against president obama. the group which has more than $200 million aims to -- what is this going to mean for the race? >> they are going to have $300 million before they are done. some goes to senate races. american cross roads has been anxious for the primaries to get over. they are ready to unload on obama. they have done all their own ads, their own research. he's not up to the job pitch. it's fascinating. i thought obama got past that. in american cross roads focus groups, again and again, they find people like the president. they have to get around that, acknowledge that people think he's a good guy, has a good family. having blown it in office is the way they are going at it. they are starting out this week, today, they are starting with facebook ads pushing a petition to say if warren buffett and president obama want to pay more taxes go ahead and write a check to the irs. we are going to see it today and in coming weeks. >> karl rove is binded. who are the other big players? >> hailey barbour. >> huge impact on this race. >> he's out raising money. he started the effort to raise money for the presidential trust they are calling it. ed gillespie, who was a founder of cross roads now romney adviser, they won't coordinate. >> of course they won't coordinate. we should show the colbert skit again. >> we are going to see it in a few weeks and months. romney is going to try to set their footing, trying to figure out the rnc, debates, figure out vp. all the things that come with the general election candidate and having to build an organization. american cross roads is able to step in and start spending the money romney doesn't have. >> karl rove last cycle and ed stepped down. american cross roads had a great impact on the 2012 race. >> '10. >> 2010, i mean. a large impact. there are democrats who have played big in the past. harold, of course, has been involved with third party groups as well as george. do we expect them to be big players in '12 or is there a disconnect? harold was more for hillary clinton. >> not so far. for a variety of reasons, the megawealthy are not inclined to participate. democrats are trying to get $50,000, million dollar checks. >> is there anybody on the left that's going to step in and take karl rove's position on the left? >> nobody has that scale so far. when romney is the obvious nominee, they will get those big checks. there's got to be a disparity. the president is going to raise more than romney is himself. this could be one of the biggest game changers of the cycle. remember, there's no limit here. you are going to have rich republicans pitch to write $10 million checks. some might. >> mike allen, the president, obviously, got tons of money from wall street four years ago. are you finding in your reporting that it really is true, that wall street is disaffected and the super rich that all supported the president in 2008 walked away from him? >> absolutely. you knew that from your day-to-day conversations. very unhappy. a lot of it has to do with what he did in office. a lot of it is care in feeding. they didn't feel reached out to you or loved by this white house. donor maintenance is a term that tickles me. it's something the obama people will admit to you. they underdid it. other things that they admit. just as the blew it with keeping their grass roots excited and activated through the early years of the obama administration. >> harold ford who is the best -- bill clinton. as one contributor said, it was like a subway machine. put the token in and get into the white house. bill clinton worked his donors like nobody. >> you did, too. it's the name of this business. outside of the business, you maintain your friendships with those folks. the question i have for mark is where do you see, i know asking for the half million or million dollar contributors. once karl rove was put out front, you put gingrich on tv endorsing romney, you won't have big donors? >> it's an open question for a variety of reasons. >> all right. mike allen. >> that's why you hear democrats playing up the president's pair el. >> mike allen, thank you so much. >> thanks for having me in. >> again, it's soon to be the biggest e-book ever. a barely going ahead calvin cool inlg's autobiography. still ahead, the red sox and yankees can take a deep breath. both clubs finally, finally found their way into the win column. also, david axelrod and congressman paul ryan in a tub of mud? keep it right here on "morning joe." greetings from the windy city of chicago. people here sure are friendly but some have had a hard time understanding my accent. so to make sure people get every word of the geico savings message i've been practicing how to talk like a true chicagoan. switching to geico could save you hundreds of dollars on car insurance... da bears. haha... you people sure do talk funny. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. 38 past the hour. now, that's a pretty shot of new york city from the top of the rock. >> way to go t.j. let's show t.j. instead of these shots. >> i can't win. >> i was thinking of spending my birthday in scranton. i'm glad i didn't. see, i asked to see t.j., he can't even show himself. >> he shouldn't right now. >> the camera is broken now? >> it's fixed now. sorry, my bad. >> scranton, you are looking good. >> can we put a post it over the camera or something? >> you know how they give keys to the city? scranton should get them. >> for the first time since the death of north korea's leader, western journalists are being let inside the country. the timing is no coincidence. the government wants the world's attention as it prepares a rocket launch and rolls out celebrations for the new ruler, kim jong un. it's supposed to coincide with his great grandfather who founded the country. it is possible the north is planning an underground nuclear test in south korea. activists in syria say two towns are under attack by the military. the government plans on pulling back troops from em battled areas where the regime says it eegs a truce deal. the cease-fire agreement, which is supposed to take place today is seen as perhaps the last chance to keep the country from sliding toward an all-out civil war. >> you are starting to see images, john, of mass graves across syria. this is, my god, it's looking like the ball kins in the 1990s. i'm drawn to what the west was saying about gadhafi. how long do we allow it to continue? >> it's a pressing question. i asked mika's dad on the show the other day talking how they are huge game changers for the president. he has to deal with those things. there's a feeling around serious right now. it's going to be hard if they keep going in this direction to stay out. >> i don't know how the president continues to stay out. again, if you keep looking at the images of the mass graves and dead bodies lined up that assad's men are gunning down. shooting in the street. >> the question for the white house and the security team is what level of violence there is unacceptable? what images of carnage are unacceptable. >> by standards and certainly by the standards we held gadhafi to, we have surpassed that. >> also big questions facing how we handle iran if the sanctions don't work. that will be something to watch. we'll be back with the must read opinion pages. keep it here on "morning joe." not in this economy. we also have zero free time, and my dad moving in. so we went to fidelity. we looked at our family's goals and some ways to help us get there. they helped me fix my economy, the one in my house. now they're managing my investments for me. and with fidelity, getting back on track was easier than i thought. call or come in today to take control of your personal economy. get one-on-one help from america's retirement leader. all right. time now for the must read opinion pages. you just went over the line. >> no, i didn't. >> yes, you did. you apologize. >> hi, chris. >> okay. >> we have a great must read op-ed. this is what chris suggested. he e-mailed in this e-mail suggestion. >> okay. i picked this one from "the washington post." how romney can solve his woman problem. women in independents want some reassurance that they give a damn about someone other than republican primary voters. pick an issue he cares about deeply. he must have a compelling economic message and be able to stand before the nation saying i will serve all american citizens whether they support me or not. my conscience, faith, view of america requires it. it hurts us all when any are hopeless. a way to appeal to humans and women is to show humanity. >> yeah. i have to say the thing i found most distressing, romney eas campaign to trust the american people, to trust the american voters. you don't have to play to the 10% of the base. trust them. six months ago, they said crazy never wins. romney has been afraid to test that theory. >> very smart guy, very smart column. he says a lot of smart things. romney says we are going to appeal to hispanic voters and women voters. the point is don't say it, say things that appeal to them. don't describe your strategy. the point about talking about things you care about, what is an issue about justice and equality that romney cares so much about that''s willing to stand-up to the republican part. if he can't answer that question, he's going to have a hard time running. it's about the economy. >> the message, i care. >> you know, i hesitate to wade back into this, but if romney had done something in that moment when he could have had a moment on strength on rush limbaugh, he could have rebuked him. >> you could go back before that. go back to iowa and talk about immigration. you don't have to say you are going to grab every hispanic to the border kicking and screaming. that is going to have long term implications or when santorum is going off talking about jfk and vomiting on his sweater or focusing too much on contraception. we said it on the show a year ago or two years ago, glenn beck was calling the president a racist. stand-up and say no, he's not a racist. he's a good, decent man, with whom i disagree. >> he would have gained an enormous about with those suffering with and would have lost nothing. most of the people upset with him in the base, we are not going to vote for him anyway. he would not be in the position he is now with the key demographics if he took one opportunity on these issues whether it's women or hispanics. >> yeah. you know, mika, i hate to talk about myself. >> i know it's awkward for you. let's try something new today. >> i'm going to break it one time. >> just once. >> is this about when you were in congress? >> it was before that. it's when i was campaigning. >> my goodness. >> what i found was that every time you said something that upset one person in the base, if it made sense to you, you picked up ten other people. regular republicans, independents, a few democrats. i found, again -- i go back to the glenn beck deal. he's on the cover of "time" calling the president a racist. that would have been a great time for romney. >> easy. >> he's a good, decent man, a good father, a good husband. he's just wrong on the issues. would you have lost a couple glenn beck fans? yes. even glenn beck eventually apologized for that. when you gained the respect of independents and democrats, yes. the same thing with immigration. poor rick perry was flawed for what he said about immigration. rick perry was a liberal. >> in the wake of etch a sketch when he does it, believe it's genuine or it will fail. still ahead, david axelrod standing by. he'll join us in a few minutes. sports is next with luke russert. >> let's have axelrod do sports. that would be good. we'll try it. 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[ laughs ] [ female announcer ] join now and get one month free. hurry offer ends april 21st. weight watchers online. finally, losing weight clicks. weight watchers online. they have names like idle time with free enterprise punsfee like hugh and crye, and smash records. and one saturday a year small businesses remind a nation of the benefits of shopping small. like the way david kaplan at shell lumber shows you how to use a chop saw. then invites you back when the warehouse becomes the community theater. or the way camille russler of ever after travels the journey from despair to bliss with every bride to be. on small business saturday 100 million of us joined a movement... and main street found its might again. and main street found its fight again. and we, the locals, found delight again. that's the power of all of us. that's the power of all of us. that's the power of all of us. that's the membership effect of american express. today is gonna be an important day for us. you ready? we wanna be our brother's keeper. what's number two we wanna do? bring it up to 90 decatherms. how bout ya, joe? let's go ahead and bring it online. attention on site, attention on site. now starting unit nine. some of the world's cleanest gas turbines are now powering some of america's biggest cities. siemens. answers. all right. >> luke russert, you will do well. jam in the city. what's up? >> good morning. >> i don't get it. >> doing very well. another good sports night yesterday. what a great sports day here. gary from the nhl playoffs about to start it off. >> he just transitions. >> you can't wear the green jacket. i don't think you are allowed to take it off the club grounds. >> i'll wear it. i won in '83. i won the masters in '83. >> i thought it was '94. >> you can't take it off the club grounds. >> why? >> it's their rule? >> why? >> it's the rule. to sports now, the mets entered undefeated. could they keep it going? rookie blasts his first home run tieing the game at 3. ryan zimmerman, the franchise spokesman. bottom of the ninth, two outs a man on third. walk on murphy. the nationals 4-3. still undefeated. amazing season. the red sox, toronto for the first win of the season. you probably shouldn't be stealing bases. gunned down at second base. but, tied in the ninth, a two-out single. knocks in the go-ahead run. 4-2. valentine picks up his first win as the red sox manager. the winless yankees taking on the undefeated orioles. jeter bangs a double into the right field corner to bring a run home. jeter went 4 for 4. more power from the yankees. drew jones, the no doubter over the wall. the orioles have their first loss of the season. there will be a few more orioles losses. his eagerly awaited debut for the rangers. he found trouble early. he walked in a run to make it 4-0, mariners. he'll need a little help from his friends. hamilton hits it deep into the center. rangers come back, 11-5. love my joe cocker imitation there. >> yeah. >> i have to work on that. >> i was worried about that. it's cheesy. he's like i'm a sports guy. all right here comes david. >> great. david axelrod won the masters, too. it was one of the great thrills of my life, i handed my green jacket to him. david axelrod is next. >> this is going to be ugly. i've discovered gold. 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[ cellphone rings ] durn'it, this thing's runnin' slow. bet you think you're pretty quick? yeah, i guess it is pretty quick. jesse?!? jesse? jesse?! much obliged. suddenly, everything else seems old-fashioned. ultrabook. inspired by intel. yesterday, of course, was easter. along with good friday commemorates the death and resurrection of christ. the white house celebrated in the manner prescribed by stripture. in a half hour, they are going to start the 134th annual easter egg roll. these are some of our friends here. the power rangers and chipmunks. >> great holiday for people who gave up lsd for lent. you see all them, too, right? actually, this scene is true to biblical scholarship. i remember them from the last supper. if i'm not mistaken -- one of you will betray me. alvin! >> okay. top of the hour. look at that beautiful shot of capitol hill in washington, d.c. welcome back to "morning joe." here with us now on the set in new york, senior obama campaign adviser, david axelrod. welcome back. >> how are the white sox going to do? >> i think they are going to surprise people. but i'm here on a piece of business. i want to make it clear. >> oh, no. >> on the 100th anniversary of wrigley, you are going to be there. >> in a second. >> thank you. >> i went to opening day, i was sitting there reading my ipad and all of a sudden, a ball comes skipping my way, hops up, drop the ipad, bare handed. >> no way! were you holding a baby? >> just an ipad. >> that's pretty good. >> unlike the creeps from last year, you did not push your wife in front of the ball? >> only because she wasn't at the game. >> you are a white sox fan, right? >> i'm from new york so i don't have that tribal feeling that chicagoans have. i was a mets fan in new york. >> are you still? >> no. not unless they pitch tom seavers. >> they may mid season. >> they are looking good now. >> do you miss ozzie yet? >> awkward. >> we kept him under control. >> he goes to miami and starts saying nice things. it's ozzie, you can believe it. >> good posture in miami. >> it's not going to work. can we get down to business, please, with david. >> okay. >> we want to show "the washington post"/abc polls out this morning. competiti competitive race when it comes to jobs. they are in a statistical tie on who can handle the economy. romney edges out the president, david. on handling the deficit, romney has a double digit advantage, david. >> you dug deep into the poll. the bulk of the poll was for the president. on almost every other issue, he has advantages as well. >> sarcasm aside, isn't that the most important issue? >> the fact is, it is important. we are going to have a big debate about the economy. who is going to promote an economy which is middle class can grow, hard work is rewarded. everybody plays by the same rules from main street to wall street. which of the two is likely to promote that kind of economy. when you look at the poll, when asked who understands what's going on in their particular economy and their lives, obama has a large lead. people believe that romney does not get what is going on in their lives. >> let's put the numbers back up again. >> put up the good numbers. >> we have before. i want to put up the economic numbers. >> this is fair. >> you are running against a guy that's got a garage, with an elevator for his cars. a guy that said he likes firing people. a guy that's become almost a cartoon like character for 1%, yet, that guy is beating your guy by four percentage points on handling the economy. we said at the top of the show, the president wins in almost every other category. he's killing romney on likability. on this issue, what does the white house need to get across to voters? >> we have come through the worst economic crisis since the great depression. we are still feeling the effects of it. i have always said, there's two crises that are side by side. one is short term of the people out of work and the long term where who is going to pay. it's been lingering for more than a decade. wages flat and declining. of course there are questions about the economy. the question is, whether the answer is to go back to the same policies that got us here in the first place. romney is prescribing tax cuts for the wealthy. somehow, we'll prosper and everyone will benefit from that. we have tested that proposition. it was a disaster. most working americans understand that. ultimately, we are going to win that fight. >> let me ask you about the buffett rule. the president and vice president are going on the road to push this. didn't the president pass up on an opportunity to do a similar thing a couple years ago? could you argue those who say this is purely political might be right? >> well, people argue what they will. the question isn't whether they are right, the question whether this is right and the principle is right. we should not have a tax system where billionaires pay less than their secretaries. we have a system rigged against the average person. rigged in favor of the very wealthy and we need to fix that. this buffett rule will address that. most americans will agree with that. >> how would you rate the performance of the president so far in deficit reduction? >> the performance -- i mean, we have had the deepest discretionary spending cuts in my memory. a trillion dollars over the next ten years, mark, that was a substantial -- a substantial step forwards. we also have been arguing for a balanced approach to this. we need to do the cuts. we also need revenues. that's where it lies. i know you have congressman ryan coming in here. the question is whether we can deal with the deficits in a way that's balanced. are we going continue to go down this road of more and more tax cuts for the wealthy instead of dealing with the deficits. at the end of the day, the question is, how do you grow the economy in a way that provides the greatest prosperity. it means education, research and development. energy investments. infrastructure. they take huge cuts in the way the republicans want to approach it. we haven't been able to come to terms here on a package. the president proposed one. the president is prepared to do it. we have to do it in a balanced way. >> you mean in his budget? >> his budget proposal and last summer in his discussions with john boehner. >> what are you smirking at? >> the budget that got zero vote. >> stop! >> all of these votes are a show of votes, joe. you know that. you are a former congressman. you are a recovering congressman for crying out loud. you understand the game. you understand the game. >> zero votes. >> the question is -- let me ask you a question as a serious question. a serious question. do you believe that we can solve our deficit issues and do the things we need to do as a country without raising revenues anywhere in our budget? >> i think we need to reform the tax code. >> what does that mean, though? in a way that raises revenues? >> yeah. i think at the end of the day, you have a raise revenues. >> i wish you were back in congress. you could have been our ally. >> i wouldn't be an ally to somebody that demagogues health care. i wouldn't be an ally to somebody that allowed deficits to go up a trillion dollars a year. it takes leadership from both sides. paul ryan stuck his nose out on medicare last year. he got killed for it. you and i both know medicare is not sustainable. medicaid is not sustainable. we talked about it in 2009. you told me the president was a guy that agreed with me. in a conference in february, '09, we can't kick it down the road. >> i don't know the last time romney was on the show, while you were making these points, he's parading arnds the country, fileting the president for making half a trillion dollars in cuts. it extended the life -- the president proposed -- under the president's plan, we would cut, at the end of ten years cutting as much out of health care costs as roughly as we do it in a way that is thoughtful. that is thoughtful. in terms of medicaid, in terms -- i'm talking medicare expenses, in terms of medicaid, his plan cuts medicaid by a third by the end of those ten years. a lot of that is going to come out of seniors in nursing homes, out of adults with disabilities, something that we both feel strongly about. that's not the right way to move forward. we could have so much more flexibility in dealing with the problems if you got off this inflexible point of no revenues. >> the bigger issue is, then i'll turn it over to you. the issue is the republicans are nod bending on revenue and democrats are not bending on entitlements. at the end of the day. >> i just told you, we cut, as part of the aca we cut. the president is willing to do more. we all know we have to do something about it. >> you know it's not enough for medicare. that money went into a new entitlement with the health care reform. >> the answer is to strengthen the program, not faze it out. >> i agree. i agree. >> john heilemann. >> let me ask a question about the political dimension of this. i can't remember the last time a president ran promising to raise taxes. what has changed that gives you enough confidence to be able to do that. that is what the president is doing. he's running saying he's going to raise taxes on the rich. what's changed in america that it's not the kiss of death? it's been for democrats in every election cycle. >> i don't think the past is always prologue. in politics, this is dynamic. we have massive tax cuts in the last decade that were skewed to the wealthy and it helped promote huge deficits. we started the decade with bill clinton after a surplus when barack obama walked into the white house he was handed a $1 trillion deficit. much of it is what we did on taxes. the american people know that. they haven't benefited nearly to the degree the people at the top have benefited. the ryan budget adds on top of continuing the bush tax cuts $265,000 in tax cuts for the wealthiest americans at a time when we have massive deficits to address and when we have real challenges to grow our economy. people get that, john. i think the american people understand what's happened. they know it has to be fixed. it has to be corrected. >> david, you had a chance to end the bush tax cuts a couple years ago. chuck shumer suggested you end them at least for millionaires. you didn't because a lot of people believed it wasn't wise to raise taxes when the economy was weak. >> as the senator would tell you, we would not have passed that compromise package we passed in that lame duck session. we made a compromise. that was to allow the tax cuts to extend for two more years, then expire on the other side of the aisle -- >> are you going to let them expire this time? >> absolutely. absolutely. we have to do that, joe. >> can i say i don't believe it? i don't believe it because -- are you speaking as a millionaire? >> i'm speaking now as a newly mended millionaire. i don't believe you are going to do it. bob woodard and i were talking about this on the show. in washington, d.c., everybody figures out a way to spend more money, cut more taxes, drive us deeper into debt. >> i think you are going to do it. >> we made tough choices in terms of cutting that domestic discretionary spending. next year, joe, it will be below where it was in years. i am telling you, we cannot spend another trillion dollars in the next ten years on tax cuts for the wealthiest americans and address deficits and deal with challenges on education, research development and energy to grow in a way that offers the broadest possible perspecti perspective. you may not believe it, joe, but the president is going to win in november and we are not going extend the tax cuts for the wealthy. i'm looking forward to coming back here in the future and -- >> gloating. >> i hope you do. i hope he doesn't pass on it. >> will you have the courage, also, will the president have the courage to do what has to be done to save medicare? to save medicaid? to save social security. >> we want to extend medicare further. we are going to make reforms necessary. the way to do it is reform health care. you can improve patient care and save money. we are going to do the things that are necessary. >> how about raising the age people get social security and medicare. >> we are going to improve the program, strengthen the program. we can negotiate when we are in power to do so but we are not going to do it here. >> it makes sense, doesn't it? >> that we should negotiate? >> no, no no. >> how is it consistent with the president's desire about you, the dnc, the campaign and the president to make fun of romney for using marvelous about what he's building at his house. how is that consistent? >> i don't think anybody thought the remark the president made was the essence of his speech. the essence of his speech was a sober and detailed critique. >> that's not the essence. the president makes fun of using the word marvelous. how is that consistent with being about big things? >> that speech was about big things. it was covered as about big things. i didn't see one main headline on that speech that made that the thrust of the speech. you know, i think it was a small line in the speech. >> is it consistent to make fun of romney to make fun of romney for using the word marvelous? >> politics is filled with serious issues. >> all right -- >> politics is a splendor thing. when are you going to stop channelling dale collins and talking about that dog put on the roof? when are you going to stop that, axelrod? >> it's too good. >> i am a dog lover. >> i am, too. i would never put him on the roof of a car. who would do that? >> mitt romney. >> i don't want halperin to say you are making the race about trivial questions. i was asked a direct question, i gave a direct answer. >> this is a big thing. nothing bigger than that. >> what? >> putting your dog on a roof. >> i speak for all dog owners. >> i'm seriously disconnected. >> this took a terrible turn. >> i have a question. >> let's get serious. straighten it up. >> the crisis in syria. cease-fire deadline today, i believe. if it doesn't hold, how long can the white house stand by without moving as the deaths, the numbers go into the thousands and thousands? >> this is a -- this is a -- a grave situation. it's a terrible situation. it requires international cooperation, particularly with people in that region. i know our folks are in constant consultation with them. we have to move as one. we will. but, let's see how events unfold. it's a complicated situation. one of tremendous concern. it's horrific what's going on. assad has to go. we have to continue to put pressure on him to do so. >> is there a sense in the white house that there's going to have to be action if this doesn't stop? what are the challenges? >> there's a sense in the white house that assad has to go. i'm not going to talk about what the tactical implications are. >> he got applaud i by some about what he said about the court. some say it if they over turn it, the president is going to wage war over the court. is that accurate, it's a preview of what's to come? >> no. the president was asked a question and he answered the question. we are not planning on the court voting against the law and invalidating the law. we think the law is within the realm of their precedence. we think they will support the law. what they do and what the politics of a decision one way or the other are unfathomable. if it's invalidated, millions and millions of people are going to feel a great loss. kids who have health care today who wouldn't have had health care. people getting preventive care today. tens and tens of americans, many older americans are going to feel it. many will have caps put on insurance coverage, again. i don't know what the politics are going to be. if the law doesn't move forward because of the court or action by the next president, which we will prevent, it would be a bad result for the american people. >> you don't hesitate to take that out? >> it's a reality that has to be touched. >> david axelrod. thank you. >> see you at wrigley. is susan doing okay? >> great. >> how about kyra? >> very, very well. we have big events coming up. san francisco later this monday. >> cureepilepsy.org. correct? >> correct. look at the cure website. cureepilepsy.org. that's our next event. in june, carol king coming to chicago. we will be there. >> we need to go. >> yes. that would be great. >> david, thank you. thanks for coming in. sorry about these guys. congressman paul ryan joins us here on set. you are watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. hey, did you ever finish last month's invoices? sadly, no. oh. but i did pick up your dry cleaning and had your shoes shined. well, i made you a reservation at the sushi place around the corner. well, in that case, i better get back to these invoices... which i'll do right after making your favorite pancakes. you know what? i'm going to tidy up your side of the office. i can't hear you because i'm also making you a smoothie. 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[ bird cries ] go online to reach every home, every address, every time with every door direct mail. on december 21st polar shifts will reverse the earth's gravitational pull and hurtle us all into space. which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd, and you still need to retire. td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans? >> this congressional republican budget is something different all together. it is a trojan horse, disguised as deaf zit reduction plans. it's an attempt to propose our country. it's darwinism. it's antette cal to our history and upward mobility for everybody willing to work for it. a place where prosperity doesn't trickle down from the top, but outward from the heart of the middle class. >> all right then. 26 past the hour. the man behind the budget. here with us now, congressman paul ryan. how are ya? >> good. good to be here in person. >> are you a brewers fan? >> yeah. >> ryan brawn, what about him? >> was he lying? >> i don't think so. he's playing. >> what are you talking about? >> a steroid issue. >> i asked axelrod about ozzie and the cubs. can we say, we didn't call axelrod out on this. you can't be a cubs fan and a white sox fan. he's been in politics -- >> you can be a brewers fan and cubs. those of us in wisconsin watchiwatch ing wgn, we have them. i grew up in those days. they were good teams. >> i went back further. >> what the president calls a trojan horse. >> yeah. >> why don't we go there? or we could talk about sports for this whole segment. >> we could. i would prefer that. go ahead. >> your reaction to the president. >> we are used to these verbal tantrums from the president. >> that was a verbal tantrum? >> i would think so. look at it this way. we propose to increase spending from $3.6 trillion a year to $4.9 trillion a year instead of the president's $5 trillion. we are saying don't increase spending as fast as he is but bring it to a more sustainable level. we have a debt crisis coming. the people who get hurt the worst are those who need it the most. if we have a debt crisis, we have an ugly episode. we are putting solutions on the table to prevent this to get back to prosperity to grow the economy and give our kids a better future. when talking increasing spending at a slower rate, you hear this over the top rhetoric. it's more of a rhetorical broadside. the president isn't proposing solutions. he can't run on his record or broken promises. he uses this rhetoric. >> tell me about the cuts you are making in this budget and who it impacts. some argue it. >> we are taking a look at the programs that have grown so fast. food stamps quadrupled. when you throw the stimulus on top, it went up 84% in two years. we can't have spending increases if we want to prevent a debt crisis. reform the programs. let's not forget the poverty rates in this country are the highest in a generation. one out of six people are in poverty. we don't think throwing more money at program that is are failing is the answer. we want to reform. the reforms we are talking about is what joe did when he was in congress. reforms that worked in 1996 were successful. they applied to one program. there were other programs not reformed in those ways. we want to replicate those and get people off welfare and on to work. we want to have opportunities. we believe in going after the poverty and getting an economy that grows. >> paul, you know, i have been a big fan of yours for a long time. wrote about you in a 2004 book, introduced you at sea pack. been accused of having a man crush on you. >> all right. >> you increase spending a good bit, cutting taxes, allowing medicare to grow at the same rate the president allows it to grow. that makes sense in election years, but at the end of the day, i don't see how you reduce the deficit much more than the president. >> oh, gosh, $3.3 trillion more than the president. >> where is it in ten years? >> our debt is 20% lower than the president's. give me a number. >> we get around 60% of gdp. >> hard number. 20 trillion? >> i don't know. what matters is the percent of gdp. we bring it 70% down to closer to 60%. we are putting in place the structural reforms that get the debt paid off. >> the president brings the debt up 76% over his budget. if we do nothing, joe, walk away and do nothing. the debt goes up 78%. the president's budget goes up 76%. he is putting us on the path to a debt crisis. he's not reforming the programs that are the driver of the debt. we will lose control if we don't get it under control soon. we are not cutting tax revenues, we are cutting tax rates and plugging loopholes so we get the same revenue we get today but believe we'll get better economic growth. you have to have two things. spending control, and economic growth. if the economy grows, that's the key secret. >> what i'm saying is i don't see enough significant cuts, not in the discretionary domestic spending. i think you go after that aggressively, but entitlements. i don't see enough long term discipline to save medicare. to save medicaid, to save social security. >> if you add up the savings it's $5.3 trillion in cuts. what we are saying is we can grandfather current seniors, people near retirement changes. we can do that now if we get ahead of that process. if we have a crisis, you won't be able to do that. 55 and above, we don't change medicare benefits for people 55 and above. we are saying we can do that now if we start reforming government today. if we kick the can down the road and procrastinate, you won't be able to do that. then you have to cut benefits for people already retired and organized their lives around these politics. republicans and democrats have been making empty promises to voters for decades. now, it's coming home to roost. do we fulfill them or keep kicking the can down the road where the empty promises become broken promises. people who are poor, on the safety net. they as a rulen tier their lives arnds this. we have to volunteer to keep this if we reform government. >> congressman, you talked about how you have to look at the programs that have grown in unsustainable ways. one program that has grown, defense spending. on this program, one of the co-hosts said that's one of the areas to look at. the president's budget proposal said that. many in the military said that. >> we cut $300 billion of defense spending out of the baseline of defense. the president cuts $487 billion. why did we arrive at that number? if you reduce it too much, if you use the budget like the president's budget does, pushing weapon procurement out the window, you are going to pay more per plane. we think they are playing gimmicks. every government agency should have more efficiency. when you throw this money you get waste. we agree with that. we cut the pentagon's budget off their baseline. >> go back to a topic that is big. you talked loopholes. we have talked before deductions. home mortgage, charitable and health care. you suggested eliminating those. you also said it's not my responsibility. with all respect, it is. this is your budget. be specific as you have been. how rich do you have to be and how much do you lose? >> the ways and means committee writes it. put together tax reform. let me give you paul ryan's opinion. >> from your point of view. >> let me give you my opinion. it's not what loopholes are there as who gets them. 1% gets $300,000 on average in tax shelters. take away the tax shelters you can lower tax rates for everybody. if you look at all the tax expenditures, it's used by people in the top two tax brackets. let's get them to middle income people. >> what is the cut off? >> i can't remember off the top of my head. it's about $250,000 per couple. >> if you are making $300,000, you take it away? >> we should circumscribe them. >> how much? >> depends on the loopholes that exist. should we subsidize the purchase of a prius and not the person with a truck in wisconsin? there are a lot of loopholes that should with stand scrutiny. we shouldn't sit in washington picking winners and losers. it's a trillion a year of washington saying if you give us your money, we give you it back if you do what we approve of. keep their money in the first place, let them decide. as we look at what tax expenditures are valuable and what aren't, look at who should get them and who should not. limit it for higher income individuals. that way, bring everybody's tax rates down. we have to watch the tax risks. 80% of american businesses file their taxes as individuals. their tax rate is going to 44.8% in january. in wisconsin, we compete against canada all the time. they lowered theirs to 15%. we are going to 45%? this is going to kill jobs in america. we are saying revenue neutral tax reform. bring in the revenue as today but with a tax system that's fair, and simpler. lower the rates by restricting the tax expenditures. >> deductions and who should get them and not. what is wrong with the buffett rule? why not? >> i think people think the buffett rule is a pix xi dust. if you do this, we are going to fix problems. >> i'm not saying that. >> i'm not saying you, i think other people. it pays 6% of the deficit spending. number two, it represents a huge tax increase on job creators. most countries are taxing businesses at 25%. this would ensure we tax about 80% of remember, 80% of businesses file as individuals. they get hit by this buffett rule. it doesn't just hit brawn or favre or scarborough. >> they are really going after you. >> this buffett rule,itis not people, it's businesses. >> i have a business. i run and here you are demagoguing poor joe scarborough. >> mark halperin -- okay. the point is, everybody thinks we are going tax the hedge fund manager and the movie star. you are getting that successful small business. come to wisconsin, come to the industrial parks where most people get jobs. >> let me nail you down on this. i think it's a very important question. you have talked about getting rid of the tax loopholes for the rich. let's define rich. i personally, for a guy like halperin or heilman, they are bill movie makers. >> they deserve it. >> if you are millionaires they can have the tax breaks taken away. i'm concerned about guys and women making $250,000 with a small business. whether you are talking wisconsin or northwest florida, that's damaging to small business owners. if 80% file as small business owners we have to protect them. what is the cut off? is it $500,000. >> i don't want to get into the cut off. who should have these? why not stop subsidizing the rich? why are we subsidizing warren buffett's benefits as much as his secretary's? >> you have to define rich. define it for me. >> stop corporate welfare and circumscribe their medicare and retirement benefits. >> what is the cut-off number? >> in medicare, for means testing, a joint filer of $160,000. let's reduce the subsidies that go to higher income individuals from government. you can get more savings from the budget. each program has different numbers in law today. i'm not going to give you a rich person and what is not a rich person. you have to look at the fact they are job creators. i talked to a guy in milwaukee yesterday, 45 employees, struggling in his business. his business makes more than $1 million. unfortunately, he is part of the problem in this country when he's a job creator in this country. don't pin people against each other. >> you have baseball players, right? good, decent baseball players. do you know how much steroids cost a year? k i'm joking. i like brawn. i think he may be on juice, but i like him. >> we can discuss. i don't know the guy. i can't tell you. >> congressman paul ryan. >> thank you, paul. we appreciate it. >> still ahead, tvs second act. how shows like "madman" are giving hollywood a run for their money. >> look what we have here? >> what? >> the stanley cup. >> why? >> what do you mean why? i want to touch it. i want a piece of it. >> i think you will. don't let joe near that on "morning joe." according to the signs, ford is having some sort of big tire event. i just want to confirm a few things with fiona. how would you describe the event? it's big. no,i mean in terms of savings how would you sum it up? big in your own words, with respect to selection, what would you say? big okay, let's talk rebates mike, they're big they're big get $100 rebate, plus the low price tire guarantee during the big tire event. so, in other words, we can agree that ford's tire event is a good size? 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[ jennifer ] join for free [ female announcer ] and if you join by april 21st, you can get a free month. [ jennifer ] weight watchers. believe. because it works. coming up next, very exciting. we have the commissioner of the national hockey league, gary bettman. he has the stanley cup. >> he carries it everywhere he goes. i am going to have punch out of that baby. "morning joe" back in a moment. [ female announcer ] the best way to predict the future... is to create it. [ female announcer ] now create a new future for your skin. only aveeno positively radiant has total soy, for a whole new level of radiance. it's clinically proven to visibly reduce blotchiness, brown spots, and other past damage, while broad spectrum spf 30 helps prevent future damage. healthier, more radiant skin. it's in your future now. [ female announcer ] positively radiant. and for sun care that helps keep skin healthy and beautiful, try aveeno continuous protection sunscreen. [ male announcer ] 1 in 6. that's how many struggle with hunger in america. ♪ but what if there was a simple way to feed those in need? now there is. just buy select brands at walmart's low prices during april and you help secure meals for local families. go to facebook and learn more about how you can join the fight. because hunger is a big problem, and it needs a big answer. is now within your grasp with the all-new e-trade 360 investing dashboard. e-trade 360 is the world's first investing homepage that shows you where all your investments are and what they're doing with free streaming quotes, news, analysis and even your trade ticket. everything exactly the way you want it, all on one page. transform your investing with the all-new e-trade 360 investing dashboard. with us now, the nhl commissioner, gary bettman and paul ryan. paul, you are blaming your face on hockey. >> only my chin. 18 stitches up and down. it's why i have a cleft chin. when you grow up in wisconsin you play. >> it would be worse if you grew up in florida playing. >> i got the top of someone's helmet here. >> mr. commissioner, tell us about the nhl playoffs starting up. >> they start tomorrow night. it's probably the best two months in sports. it's intense, it's exciting, it's competitive. the cup is what's at stakes. the trophy is 120 years old. >> i want to ask you had this big brawl, flyers and penguins last week. it looked almost like a bar fight. and in this day and age with the concussion era, how can we have that type of violence on the ice? >> well, i don't think the characterization of violence -- it's a very physical game. fighting is a small part of the game. it tends to act as a bit of a thermostat in a game where physical contact is encouraged. guys are skating at each other nonstop at 30 miles per hour. and they happen to be caring sticks. it keeps the temperature down. and it's not the most important part of the game. it's a small, incidental part of the game. and thank you took a poll of the players, which i think a number of organizations have done in the last few months, something like 99 to almost 100% of the players understand the role that fighting plays in the game and doesn't think that we should be changing the rules right now in that regard. >> self-policing. >> it is a strange thing, though, to see those fights take place, across the ice and have the referee stand there watching. >> did you ever try and break up one of those? there is a sensibility to what goes on. the fact of the matter is, while they may get a disproportionate amount of the attention, that's not what our game is about. our game is about skill, finesse, physicality and excitement. >> so this is the first time that the playoffs are being shown, all of the playoffs are being shown on a national level. why is hockey getting more popular? >> well, there are a variety of factors. our game probably has never been more competitive, our competitive baume' be the best in all of professional sports. we have worked over the years to build our exposure and our national platforms. we had another incredible year with attendance being up and we have a great partnership with nbc universal. the nbc sports group in our new ten-year deal committed to showing every game of the stanley cup playoffs nationally on either nbc, the nbc sports network, cnbc or the nhl network, and that for us is unprecedented. we have never had that much exposure. >> we're mostly college in wisconsin, badgers, i come from ohio, and we sort of adopted the wild as our team. good wisconsin family own it. give me your take on the wild. where do you think they stand and what are their chances this year? >> well, minnesota is the state of hockey. and proudly calls itself that. craig leopold, one of your constituents, is a great owner. and the fans are really passionate. minnesota lost the north stars and were fortunate enough to get the wild back. while the wild didn't make the playoffs this year, i know there's a lot of excitement. >> but you don't want to handicap? >> no. >> i didn't -- >> no handicapping? >> no. i that would only get me into trouble. >> i didn't mean to do that to you. >> what's happened to the canadiens the last couple years, because when you look at this cup, it was the montreal canadiens that won year after -- they own that cup? what happened to that franchise? >> first of all, the geographic drafts if you go back to when you and i were younger. so all of the talent of players playing from that area would go to those teams. they would get first priority. but we have expanded. we now have 30 teams going back to when we were younger. it was either 6 or 12 teams as the lead group. but in the final analysis, from a fan standpoint, from a business standpoint, the canadian franchises have never been healthier. but competitively, the competitive balance is so intense, it's pretty tough to make the playoffs. every game in the regular season matters, because we had teams miss the playoffs by a point or two. so a game in october or november may have determined who actually made the playoffs. >> it does matter. we've got to move the coyotes in milwaukee. >> semi pro. >> we don't want to move anybody anywhere. >> okay. >> we like where we are. we're wrestling with, as you pointed out, a little bit of a problem with the coyotes in arizona. but we're trying to make it work outsi out. >> all right, mr. commissioner. you can watch the playoffs tomorrow night, philadelphia flyers and the pittsburgh penguins tomorrow night at 7:30 p.m. on nbc sports network. gary, thanks so much for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> paul, thank you. >> you bet. >> you've got a future in sports, baby. >> not in hockey. ♪ [ male announcer ] lately, there's been a seismic shift in what passes for common sense. used to be we socked money away and expected it to grow. then the world changed... and the common sense of retirement planning became anything but common. fortunately, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. take control by opening a new account or rolling over an old 401(k) today, and we'll throw in up to $600. how's that for common sense? 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[ male announcer ] visit your local chevy dealer today. right now, very well qualified lessees can get a 2012 equinox ls for around $229 a month. ♪ ♪ in the city good morning. it's 8:00 on the east coast, as you take a live look at new york city. back with us on-set, mark halperin and john heilemann and -- >> so rich. >> you see there is the great new "washington post" abc news poll. >> yeah, there is. >> filled with data. >> so funny you should say that. >> chock full. >> any way we could learn more about that? >> if the election were held today, a new "washington post" a abc poll has president obama beating mitt romney 51 to 44% nationwide. obama beat santorum. the poll also shows obama holding a sizeable lead over romney in several key areas including women's issues, international affairs, health care policy. romney, however, leads the president on energy policy, just outside the margin of error. the contest is much more competitive when it comes to jobs and the economy, though. on job creation, the two candidates are in a statistical tie on who can better handle the economy. romney edges out the president there. and on handling of the federal deficit, voters give romney a double digit advantage, 51-38. overall, voters find president obama more likeable than mitt romney by a margin of 64-26%. would you like to talk about that? >> let's start with those numbers right there. likability, harold ford, the old beer question. who you would rather have a beer with. it looks like barack obama is going to have the heinekin thrown his way here. >> that's a big number. >> 20-point lead -- >> 40-point lead. chbls that's a huge gap. >> at any point in the campaign, particularly less than seven months before the election, that's a big, big number. but to have that kind of lead on likability, it can overcome and overcompensate for some of the weaknesses. it's not surprising the president enjoys a big lead on women's issues, international affairs and obviously health care policy. this show has pointed out many times before, the top two issues are the economy and the debt. that double-digit lead that romney owns there for the time being is obviously a positive for him. but the more he makes bone-headed comments or ill advised comments about poor people, about his own lifestyle, about the state of affairs for different constituencies in the country, the more that number will grow around likability. and the likelihood of obama being helped by that and other issues goes up, as well. >> mark, but you look at this slide, where this is the one area where the president is not doing as well. he dominates every part of the "washington post" abc news poll, except the one that matters the most to voters. and that is handling the economy and creating jobs. and it's really a wash here. >> i ain't good at much, but i think my finger is somewhat on the pulse of conventional wisdom. and i think the conventional wisdom swung. it used to be a economy, the president couldn't win an election. the last few months, obama is a lock to win re-election. if you look at this poll closely, i think it matches the conventional wisdom and buttresses it. romney has a real chance to win this, not just because of economic numbers, but the chances he's going to be that far behind on foreign policy and health care if he runs a good campaign i think are low. and once he tightens up some of those other areas with the economy, he's got a chance. >> john heilemann, is this the equivalent of shooting 15% from the field in the first half and only finding yourself down by eight points -- >> he's made so many unforced errors, they have been so unfocused on message. do you subscribe to mark's point of view? >> well, certainly, there's no question that romney in a lot of these areas, romney has deficits, and i don't mean the federal deficit, but deficits in polling, that he can fix those problems. they're fixable. i think the question is whether -- to your point, is a guy who shoots 50% from the field, does he find himself at halftime, or is he a 15% shooter from the field? we don't know the answer to that question right now. mitt romney could become a much better candidate. and the economic conditions of the country could continue to be flat or worse. and the door is open for him. he's got some big -- bigger problems with things like hispanic voters. but look, he can win this, can get back in this race, but he's going to have to be a lot better than he has been. >> you know -- if you were him, you wouldn't -- you would look at these numbers and say, we're in this thing. i mean, i think your analogy is right. if you shoot 15 to 20% the first time, you're down by 10 and you know you've got three-point shooters on your team, you feel good going into the second half. >> if you brought a great coach in, as they brought in with ed gillespie. but that leads to -- in the second half, it's going to be, i think, much better, because they've got a disciplined guy. let me ask you guys, you're writing a book now about the 2012 election. i'm going to ask the same question we asked about the obama white house, when things were going badly. who is in charge? before ed gillespie came on board, who was on charge? it seemed like such a muddled mess, and the messaging was bad. and some of the things that mitt would talk about would be unspeakable. you wouldn't get away with that in a congressional campaign. and i ask this question, because does this speak to a larger problem with mitt romney? does -- is he making the mistake of saying, i'm the ceo and here is my board, and i'm going to make the decisions with input from everybody? >> well, it's a smaller team than it was four years ago. and i think part of the problem, they're just not very big. they don't have a lot of people. they have wanted to keep costs down, and mitt romney doesn't trust them. >> but who is in charge? >> matt rose and stuart stevens i think are largely in charge. >> is that your take, too? >> yeah, it is. and look, again, to be fair to those guys, we said in december, that's four months ago, if you looked at the campaign throughout 2011, the conventional wisdom was that the romney campaign was a much better run operation than it had been four years ago. and that it was a much better run operation than any other republican in the field. people in december were saying -- >> no. that's not saying a whole lot. >> look, they looked very good in december. they have had a bad few months. and there is no question that they need to bring in some -- >> ed gillespie is a good example of someone they're bringing in to remediate problems they have had. >> it was bad messaging. who has been charge of messaging pre-ed gillespie? >> you've got matt roads, in charge of actually running the campaign and stuart stevens, the primary guy who has been on the message and media front. >> i think you've got to keep in mind the achievement of mitt romney becoming the republican nominee. i think the president is the favorite and i'll say that up through election day, no matter what, a talented incumbent. but mitt romney is a northeastern, mormon guy with limited political -- >> moderate. >> who passed the universal health care law in massachusetts. he was running against a weak field. but it is still quite an accomplishment that he was able to win the republican nomination. >> i want to get three more stories in here. first of all, a closer look of what voters are thinking in some of this year's swing states. the third-way global strategy group polled independent voters in 12 battle grounds, including florida, pennsylvania and virginia. the poll finds president obama with a slight lead over romney among independents, with more than a third of those voters still undecided. the president's favorability rating is at 49% with this group, while romney's is at 41 is. >> what do you think of that? >> to be undecided at 36% suggests two things to me. one, that group is not comfortable with president obama. and they -- >> why do you say that? >> because they have seen president obama for four years, he won independents by a large margin four years ago. but they're not fully there with republicans. with republican, it's primary. now you have one person coming out and i think it boils back down to what's been said this morning. can romney -- can governor romney create enough comfort, enough confidence around him, his candidacy, his team, and you've got to think, as heilmann and mark have said, he's got as legitimate a shot as any president before. three things aren't here. bush is not going to be president like he was four years ago. it's very unlikely sarah palin will be chosen again as the vice presidential nominee. >> that is unlikely. >> and john mccain is not going to be as dominant a force. he'll be a supporter, but he won't be the nominee. you take those three things out and you've got one heck of a race that -- >> it may be -- >> you agree with me on the palin theme? >> probably. you think so? >> there's no question that the personality that people had seen in mitt romney over the course of this campaign, the course of his time in national life, is not as attractive as his actual personality. >> no. it's not. >> there is a huge gap there. >> he is a really likeable guy. >> he's a huge gap there. so that likability number, he can't win with that gap. but he will not be as likeable as the president. the question is, can they display him in a way, because personality matters more than issues in this, can they display him in a way where the gap closes, where people see more of what he is really like, more of what his friends and family see. >> how would you counter that, joe, if you were asked to come on to the campaign, how would you advise -- i think a 40-point gap is big. you've got -- some of that will close naturally. how would you address it? >> first of all, i would tell him to just be himself. and if that is a dull guy that fixes things, then that's what he should do. and that's what he is. he's a dull guy that knows how to fix things. and this economy needs fixing. it's -- it's been in disrepair for 30 years. let mitt be mitt. >> check out his blog on politico. >> i said the same thing. i would focus on the things he has done very, very well, better than most. >> that will be up later today. >> whether it's capital, 2002 olympics or working as a state. but two, i would get a camera into his house and show him interacting with his family. and i suppose mitt will probably be stiff and awkward for the first 40 hours, but you know what, we're just going to keep these cameras on in your house, until you start being yourself. because we've said it here before a lot. anybody that has met mitt romney's wife -- >> i know, we've been in their home. >> anybody that's met his five boys know -- >> they're amazing. >> they're a great family. they are -- they really are. you would -- there's not a person in america that wouldn't love them to be their next door neighbors. they are good, decent people. and when you walk into that home, you go, you know what, this doesn't happen by accident. >> that's right. >> there is a great dad at the head -- >> absolutely true. >> -- of the family. >> the likability issue. >> with the wife. >> in that 41st hour, he's magical. >> okay. >> well, i -- everybody that has talked to him, that's known him -- that's another thing about him. we could find a lot of political candidates on the national level, you could go back many years and find people that worked with him, closely throughout their lives, that don't say really nice things about them. good luck finding people that work with romney at bain or the 2002 olympics or worked with him through the years that are going to say, oh, he's a terrible human being. he lies, he cheats, all about mitt. >> you don't hear that. >> you don't hear that. because he is a good, decent man. >> you talk about the mitt romney who most of the country knows, and they're mystified. they don't see why -- >> this is very exciting conversation, i do want to get one last news story in. and i'm going to right now. >> did you really pay people to write nice things about me? >> no, i just -- >> barter. >> okay. president obama will be discussing economic policy in the battle ground state of florida today. he's making his case for the so-called buffett rule, a white house proposal that would require the wealthiest americans to pay at least 30% of their income in taxes. the senate is set to vote on the buffett rule next monday, where it faces tough opposition from republicans. yesterday, white house press secretary jay carney dismissed suggestions that the vote is simply political theater. >> the piece of legislation we're talking about here on its face has broad support across the country. from americans of all political persuasion. there is an opportunity here, because of the 60-vote threshold, to demonstrate by some republicans, if they choose to listen to their constituents, and agree with the legislation, this is a challenge, because we have faced this opposition. but we have also seen on a variety of occasions a willingness to back away from absolutist positions and maybe we'll see some of that willingness in this case. >> the buffett rule, which some critics condemn as class warfare, will likely be a key campaign issue this fall. president obama's re-election team held a conference call yesterday, touting the bill and calling on mitt romney to release more of his tax returns. his returns released so far show the former massachusetts governor paid close to a 15% tax rate, lower than most middle class americans. good argument there. >> so jay carney said it's not pure politics. is he right? or is this a political move by the president? >> it's not pure politics. it's partly politics and partly conceivably -- partly, as he said, a piece of policy that a lot of americans approve. but, you know, the political dimension to it is obviously clear and i think it's a significant problem for romney, because it's one of these things that goes to a -- popular proposal that illuminates and opens up the door to a critique that he's vulnerable on and made himself more vulnerable on in the course of the problems he has with his tax returns and the way he has had trouble talking about his own personal financial wealth. >> harold, you're a democrat. is this a good idea? >> you know, i'm not crazy about playing this kind of politics. first of all, the buffett rule, if you want to go after the wealthy -- first of all, there is a big difference between the guy making $1 million a year and warren buffett. like 30, $40 billion difference. so if you really want to go after him, you have to raise the capital gains rate. not because it's a time marginal rate. that's the capital gains rate, as it is with mitt romney. so i think you have to think about this differently. i understand the political appeal of this, and that secondary question -- >> should we raise the capital gains rate? >> i think there's a legitimate argument can be made, maybe it should go to 15 or higher for people making that kind of money that buffett makes on his -- on his investments. that being said, the secondary question, which i think romney will ask, if you do all these things the president is proposing, how much more money will you raise towards paying down the debt. presumably, there is two arguments, a fairness argument and how do you pay down the debt argument. i don't deny, a guy like mitt romney and buffett should be paying more taxes. they could write a bigger check right away, or two, raise the capital gains rate to go after them. and second, how do you pay down this debt? this alone won't solve the problem. >> coming up, the home theater evolution. the new issue of "vanity fair" explores television's takeover of pop culture. also, best-selling author deal i can't ephron joins us to discuss her new novel. but first, bill karins to check on the forecast. bill. >> i don't know if you've noticed, but the east coast has dried out in a hurry. we didn't have the snow pack to keep the ground moist and it hasn't rapined in a white we ha numerous brush fires yesterday. a big brush fire shut down amtrak in connecticut. even staten island had a big fire. and that was the view from new york city down over staten island in the fire. statue of liberty in the bottom left. so kind of a rare scene. today, once again, with the gusty winds, no rain in sight. red flag warnings have been posted from new york city all the way down to the upstate of south carolina. all of the mid atlantic today, any brush fires form, they're going to spread rapidly and be very difficult to contain tore firefighters. you can see there, there's barely any clouds at all. and the wind, which died off last night, will pick up this afternoon. temperatures in the 60s. whatever rain showers there will be, more or less upstate new york into new england. middle of the country, really actively dry. we'll see a few strong storms late today in areas of texas, but i'm not expecting a severe weather outbreak. and for the west coast, california of all places, has a chance of rain three times this week with a storm coming tonight and another one thursday into friday. you're watching "morning joe" on this tuesday. we're brewed by starbucks. ♪ [ male announcer ] you plant. you mow. you grow. you dream. meet the new definition of durability: the john deere select series. with endless possibilities, what will you create? ♪ learn more about the new select series x310 with power steering at johndeere.com/x310. how they'll live tomorrow. for more than 116 years, ameriprise financial has worked for their clients' futures. helping millions of americans retire on their terms. when they want. where they want. doing what they want. ameriprise. the strength of a leader in retirement planning. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you one-to-one. together for your future. ♪ ♪ oh, i hope tad likes salmon. it's a bit of a risk serving fish to a first time diner at dunfe's. >> i think someone has a man crush. >> first, i would never date a potential client. >> that's first of all. >> second, i need him to make me his realtor. this guy is flipping properties like they're experts in a kung-fu movie. >> so you're kissing up for his money. >> no, i like him. he does charity work, rock climbs, flies planes. >> how does he have time to do all that? >> got divorced and his whole life opened up. guy is living the dream. his dream. not my dream. i'm living my dream. you're my dream. >> you can stop. >> that was a clip from abc comedy "modern family" just one of the hit shows giving the small screen a leg up on hollywood. here with us from "vanity fair," james willcot, out with a piece and writes, as movie theaters switch from film to digital projection, home flat screens take up a wall and the unholy movie-going experience cries out for human pest control. cinema has lost its sanctuary, allure and aesthetic edge over television, which as a medium has the evolutionary advantage movies will never die, not as long as as a director like terrance malick can make every green blade of grass sway like the first dance of creation. but tv is where the action is, the addiction is forged, the dream machine operating on all cylinders. >> james, a few years back, stanley, who was talking about how when we were growing up, everybody would sit around, you know -- stand around the proverbial water cooler and talk about "the godfather" and "sting" and the great movies in the '80s. now it's tv. tv has become the center of american popular culture. when did that begin to happen? was it the sopranos? was it before that? >> hbo had a lot to do with it, even before "the sopranos," "sex in the city", it was like a conversational standard. part of it is that as movies become more and more worldwide franchises, and they've got to appeal to worldwide audiences, isn't enough to do well in america, you've got to do well in the rest of the world, they had to break movies down to their basic components, like the turn-around and this is the moment in which the character is in a crisis and then this happens. and television can be -- because it's, you know, open-ended, you know, it could go on for two seasons -- >> right. >> eight seasons. you could go in all these different directions, and characters in -- over the -- length of a series can evolve to where they started out perverse and then get redemption or started out redeemed and then become increasingly perverse by season eight. >> right. >> when everybody involved bought their house. got to keep the show going. >> yeah. it's like, you know -- >> exactly. but it is amazing how i've seen so few movies over the past few years. but the free time that i have, i'm watching, you now -- i'm watching series whether it's hbo, there are a few great ones on the networks. but it just seems that i guess, like you said, movie-makers have to hit the grand slam every time. they've got 200 million worldwide and sell dvds. it's just not a lot of room for subtlety in that market. >> no. and it's not a great medium for actors. you feel now that every year shall with best actress, it's like, okay, what was meryl streep in? >> right. >> she gets the odds-on and everybody else is bringing it up. whereas on television, people can just sort of pop out of nowhere. some people are perfect for tv. edie falco probably would have never been a movie star but from carmela to nurse jackie, she is absolutely perfect for tv. >> yeah. >> you know, it's -- just thinking about this book that todd gillen wrote a few years ago called "inside prime time" that talked about "hill street blues" and made a point that the problem with episodic television, you would have these shows with great formal break-throughs in the first couple seasons and then start to copy themselves and become parodies of themselves. this was the structural problem with television. doesn't seem to be as true now of the great series, whether it's "breaking bad" or "mad men" or "the sopranos". why is that? do you think the people who create those shows have figured a way out of the box? >> in part, because on cable, the creators and show-runners, they're the auters. so on the network show, you can often have to indulge a star, because it's if we do two more seasons then we really hit in syndication so we have to make this person happy. so you often hear about stars will say things like, you know, season five, no my character wouldn't do that. no, i'm not going to do that. no. or i would do that. that character wouldn't, therefore, i'm going to take that line and dial up. but on say, like, "the sopranos" or "mad men," david chase is going to decide who lives and dies. we know he wasn't going to get rid of tony early on, but it's basically, sorry, this is a year -- >> and even wonder in "mad men," you wonder if matthe matthew we decided he was tired of january jones, figured out a way to push her to the sigh. but, again, like a guy like matthew weiner or david chase, they are the stars now. >> also, you'll notice, the way it's -- "mad men" has now been devised, no one is crying out for betty and don to get back together. no one is saying, they were meant to be together, like, you know, on "friends" people would say oh, they've got to bring ross -- >> it's not a story book anymore. it's very convoluted. >> how much do we equate this tv renaissance to the technology, our comcast dvr, i can watch them in a row, uninterrupted, almost like watching a film? >> i think it has a lot to do with it. because then it opens it up and then they become sort of mini novels or epic novels. there are people, for example, i see this in tweets from people in britain who never really watched "the wire." until recently. and they're now in season -- season two. >> right. >> so they get the dvd and they go on these binges. >> that's what joe does. >> you're british. >> another way soccer -- i'm so glad you brought that up. because my son has been hounding me -- >> as have i. >> as have you. >> you've got to watch "the wire." >> i got from season one through five just like that. and now it's so interesting, when you're sitting at dinner with other people and you start talking about "the wire," halperin, for instance, saying i've got to watch it. they are more like novels that you can take off a shelf and see any time. >> yeah. of course, sometimes your enthusiasm is mismatched, because there are people really excited about season two of "breaking bad" and everybody else is like, i saw it three years ago. you just found out that walt did -- >> yeah, exactly. real quick, we've got to get this in. top five all-time tv shows. we love lists on this show. >> oh -- >> let's do three. >> "seinfeld," "mad men," "buffy the vampire slayer," particularly the first few seasons. >> how about "m.a.s.h." >> you know, i was never a big "m.a.s.h." fan. i would say "mary tyler moore show." >> that's a good one. >> i don't know. there are like any number of hbo series. >> "all in the family," "mary tyler moore", "cheers." >> definitely. >> i'm a "curb" guy over "seinfeld." >> got to have "the wire" and "breaking bad" on my list. >> "i love lucy" is number one for me. >> it was so ground-breaking. we think back then you had an interracial relationship in the 1950s, people forget about that. it was a big deal. >> can we just say, though, because i brought up "all in the family," can we just bring up norman leer for a moment? light years ahead, the first to really understand what he could do. >> i saw him when i went to see "book of mormon" he was in the audience and i thought he's keeping up. >> james, thank you. your article is in the new issue of "vanity fair." when we come back, best-selling author and screen writer delia ephron joins us right here. keep it on "morning joe." i love that my daughter's part fish. but when she got asthma, all i could do was worry ! specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. not in this economy. we also have zero free time, and my dad moving in. so we went to fidelity. we looked at our family's goals and some ways to help us get there. they helped me fix my economy, the one in my house. now they're managing my investments for me. and with fidelity, getting back on track was easier than i thought. call or come in today to take control of your personal economy. get one-on-one help from america's retirement leader. we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much, i appreciate it, i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money ? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. the largest class size in the nation. 47th out of 50 in per-student funding. but right now, we can make history with a ballot measure to send every k-through-12 dollar straight to our schools. to every school and every child. not to sacramento. it's the only initiative that can say all that. check out our online calculator and find out how your school would benefit. visit ourchildrenourfuture2012.com today. so what's his handle? >> uh -- >> i'm not going to write it. is that what you're worried about? you think i'm going e-mail him? >> all right. ny 152. >> ny 152. 152. he's 152 years old. he's had 152 moles removed, so now he's got 152 pock marks on his -- on his face. >> the number of people who think he looks like clark gable. >> 152 people who think he looks like a clark bar. >> that was a clip from the 1998 comedy "you've got mail" a film written by sisters nora and deal i can't he have front. delia, good to see you, with "the lion is in." >> nice to be here. >> it's -- i'm trying to think of the first thing you want when you got on the set, i thought you had me back because nora talked so much. >> yes. >> the story of your life. >> well, yeah. you know, i wrote -- i had this very powerful dream, which is why i wrote this book. i -- which has never happened to me before. i dreamed two women, who were 26 years old, i knew their names, lon and tracy, north carolina, a state i had never been in before, and in this road house bar, and this third woman, timid, in her 50s and i named her rita when i woke up. and i -- there was a lion. and i knew that these women were on the run, and the lie on would change their lives. and i actually knew the title, too. i woke up and i knew it. and i called nora and i was telling her about this and how i was writing this book. and she said -- and she said, what's the title? and i said "the lie on is in" and she laughed so i knew it was right. we're all writers. >> thank god she didn't say hey, i just had that same dream too. >> exactly. oh, my gosh. >> funny, i just wrote this. >> well, i'll tell you what was very strange, after writing two drafts, i thought i better go down to north carolina. and there's a moment in the book where rita, who has a love story with a lion, wants the lion to have a tree, so she finds this tree in the middle of a field and it looks like a sculpture more than a tree, been struck by lightning, just limbs no foliage. and i was just putting in the gps, taking random destinations, and a passed a field and there is the tree sitting there. and i absolutely -- i screamed, actually. i was so stunned. and then i had another moment where there is clayton who owns the bar and he doesn't like to get up in the morning but he has this vintage chevy bel-air, 1957 that he loves so i answered the ad on the wall of a mexican restaurant so buy some bread in someone's house so i could go into the house to see what people were living like there. and i bought the bread and i'm chatting, and her husband comes home and when i walk outside, there is the vintage chevy bel-air. >> wow. >> driving it. >> whoa. >> so i felt this story was some sort of a destiny. i mean, it's a real adventure. >> yeah. >> my editor calls it "thelma & louise" crossed with "born free." i don't understand that. i don't get it. >> it's art. you're not supposed to be able to explain it. isn't that right, game-change boys? >> we're pro art. >> you make things up as you go along. >> i was thinking that would be the next book, see if we could get a shared dream going. >> well, you can't share dream. dream is so personal. >> so talk about -- talk about what these women are running from. i know that one is running from a bad marriage. but what are the other two running from? >> one is wrestling with issues of she is sober, recently sober, but so full of drama. and the need and a certain guilt. and rage. and she is running from herself. >> right. >> and the other one is a cl kleptomani kleptomaniac. and she has committed some crimes. and she is on the run for those reasons. >> right. >> and she is in a wedding dress. i don't know if he mentioned that. >> you did. >> and you don't know why. so -- but, you know, it's very -- the character of rita, i was very interested. remember the woman in tennessee who shot her minister husband? >> yes. >> that story really huh h a big impact on me, because i kept thinking, suppose you were unhappily married to a man in a small town who everyone thinks is god or has confused with god and you're miserable? who do you tell, what do you do you, how do you leave? >> hopefully you just leave with the lion instead of shooting him. is this the -- represent something much larger? perhaps are you writing to women who may be approaching 50, like rita, who feel trapped in their life, and want to escape in a car with a lion in a wedding dress? >> look, whether you have a lion named that marcel who is facilitator, strength, higher power, even, and simply a lion, i think we all have the imagine makes to change our lives and we come to points in our lives whether it's in our 20s or 50s where we have to find that imagination and do it. >> wow. delia ephron, thank you so much. >> i can't wait to read this. >> tell nora we say hi. >> i will. right after the show. >> the book is "the lion is in." you can read on excerpt on msnbc.com. up next, will wall street lose course after four straight losing sessions? business before the bell is next. your finances can't manage themselves. but that doesn't mean they won't try. bring all your finances together with the help of the one person who can. a certified financial planner professional. cfp. let's make a plan. so i test... a lot. do you test with this? 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watch this. >> only two men left standing at the 2012 masters tournament. if he plays it right, this could clench the jacket for louie oosthuizer, oosthuizon -- >> we'll be back with more of the masters on cbs. >> looking ahead to tomorrow, masters champion bubba watson, northwest florida made it, baby. also virginia governor bob mcdonald, boone pickens, and comedian, and this is big, jim gaffigan. i can't wait for jim. let's get a check on business before the bell, we have cnbc's michelle cab rousso cabrera. >> yesterday was the first day the markets could respond to the friday jobs report that wasn't nearly as good as anybody was hoping for. so that led to big sell-off we saw yesterday. today it looks like we're going to open positively. we have to see if we can hold it, though. because europe looks like a mess this morning. really deep sell-off there and getting worried about the interest rates in europe. whether people are getting nervous about countries like spain having to spend too much money in the future. to somehow bail out their banks. here in the ins, we are celebra celebrating these two kids roughly a half billion after selling instagram to facebook. it's like selling something in your garage. >> do you use that app? >> yeah, i love it. i take photos and then feed them to instagram. >> you listen to the news from friday and europe, looks like dark clouds are on the horizon for the economy and if you look at the front page of "the wall street journal" yesterday, the screaming headline that companies are meaner and leaner and made more money than in 2007. there are some positives out there, if the economy could just turn around. boy, we've got businesses that are ready to explode. >> yeah, the financial crisis made companies very risk averse. so they said in the future we're going to have a lot more cash, because, boy, in the worst moments of 2008, some of us were on the verge of going bankrupt, not because we had a bad business model, we didn't have enough cash on hand at the worst moments. so you see hoarding of cash. once europe started to look better, we saw a little bit more spending there. but right now, we're really waiting to see those companies unleash it, whether it comes to buying more equipment, which would lead to higher employment, just hiring more people, et cetera. but they did become leaner and meaner, a lot more productive and profitable. in the end, a good thing. >> no doubt about it, mitchel he wi will. thank you very much. michelle is too young to remember, but you remember back in the 1980s, the businesses going through the transition, and a lot of businesses were cutting, cutting, and they kept cutting. and then 1992, fourth quarter when the economy turned around, boy, those companies were ready to explode. of like michelle said. they cut, they became more productive. and the economy turned around. demand increased. and exploded. >> incredible. >> huge growth and lots of good fundamentals. >> it could happen again. >> interesting. you think back then, there was a big burst of innovation on the tech scene then. basically when the worldwide web took off. you wonder what the new thing is that's going to fuel a lot of that kind of growth. >> smell of energy. >> new energy. >> smell-o-vision. we never know what it's going to be. 19 89, the japan that could say no. people suggesting we were going to be the grainery to the japanese in 20 or 30 years. two or three years later, the tech explosion. changed everything. >> we do have another banker in asia. >> yeah? >> yeah. >> owns a lot of our debt. >> yeah. >> that is true. the japanese, i remember they used to -- even worse, they used to own pebble beach. maybe they still do. remember the japanese would buy like -- >> rockefeller center. >> people would say, it's the end. we have lost to the japanese. >> japan is number one. >> when bought budweiser that, was the end. >> we need to go to pebble beach. we're going to do some extensive "morning joe" research. coming up, the best of late-night. that people didn't really pay too much attention to honestly. i came to yountville really because of the french laundry. this is the place i had been looking for all my career. so i decided to plant a bay laurel seedling to commemorate that. as a chef we are always committed to our suppliers... you know those farmers, those foragers, those gardeners, those fishermen... for me it's really about building this extraordinary community. american express is passionate about the same thing. they're one of those partners that i would really rely on to help branch out my business. whether it's finding new customers... or a new location for my next restaurant. once you have strong support around you, then you can do anything. now this town has become a bit of a food metropolis. and that little bay laurel, it provides bay leaves for every one of my restaurants. the customers, tools, and insights to help grow your business. that's the membership effect of american express. do about medicare and social security... security. that's what matters to me... me? 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[ male announcer ] aarp is bringing the conversation on medicare and social security out from behind closed doors in washington. because you've earned a say. ♪ donald trump, you all know donald trump. he -- political adviser, donald trump and -- [ laughter ] slum lord and political adviser, donald trump. is now telling rick santorum that he should get out of the race of presidential nomination race, get out of the race with digni dignity. and i thought well, if anybody knows anything about dignity, i mean, it's donald trump. remember this? there he is right there. there's donald trump. there you go. there you go. take that. yeah. okay. donald trump. the soul of dignity. >> mitt romney's family is trying really hard to make mitt seem like a regular guy. that is the strategy now. yeah. in a new interview that she just gave, ann romney says her husband, mitt, is mischievous. [ laughter ] yeah. for example, she says his favorite prank is to ring someone's doorbell, run away, and then buy the house. [ laughter ] >> yesterday, of course, was easter. which along with good friday commemorates the death and resurrection of christ. and this morning, the white house celebrated in the manner prescribed by scripture. >> in just about a half hour, they're going to start the 134th annual white house easter egg roll. these are some of our friends here, the chipmunks. [ laughter ] >> great holiday for people who gave up lsd for lent. [ laughter ] you see all of them too, right? actually, this scene is true to biblical scholarship. i remember these characters from the last supper, if i'm not mistaken. [ laughter ] one of you will betray me. alvin! 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[ male announcer ] in here, the right minds from inside and outside the company come together to work on an idea. adding to it from the road, improving it in the cloud all in real time. good idea. ♪ it's the at&t network -- providing new ways to work together, so business works better. ♪ i'm not suggesting. >> welcome back to "morning joe." it has been such an honor to have you with us this morning. now let's talk about what we have learned today. >> this day, 1947, branch ricky buys the contract from the montreal royals from jackie robinson. >> the greatest athlete of all-time? >> the greatest athlete of all-time. >> i don't think he's the greatest baseball player. >> not -- the greatest athlete. this day in 1947. dave winfield. >> i know, all -- >> greatest baseball player of all-time, babe ruth, he could do anything. >> what have you learned? >> it is a great day, the mets are 4 and 0. the red sox have won a game. everything is right with the world. >> halperin? >> david axelrod and paul ryan can behave ever so civilly together when they're on the set of "morning joe." >> they got along very well. what did you learn? >> bubba is going to explain the green jacket to me

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