Trump trailing his challenger, former Vice President joe biden, by nearly eight points. Earlier today, axios reported that the president will claim victory tuesday night if he appears to be ahead. Some states like pennsylvania may well show early leads for the president based on the sameday vote. That would be for mailin ballots where democrats are expected to have an advantage in pennsylvania. Are counted. Both candidates responded to that report. That was a false report. Well look at what happens. I think its a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election. My response is the president is not going to steal this election. Today both campaigns were in full swing, the candidates and their running mates barnstorming battlegrounds. Hoping to sway whatever undecided voters remain in the race. Former Vice President joe biden was back on the road in philadelphia. Tomorrow biden, Kamala Harris and their spouses are going to fan out across all four corners of the keystone state, hitting a dozen different locations. The president just finished speaking in rome, georgia. Later tonight he is going to hold his fifth rally in florida, that state could be key to his reelection. A mustwin state for him. New polls out today tell two different tales of what could happen in florida on Election Night. Lets start with a look at each candidates path to 270 electoral votes. Lets fire this thing up. Were going to be using it a lot in the next couple days. The road to 270, you see the battlegrounds here. If biden starts with the States Hillary clinton won in 2016, theres a couple there that the Trump Campaign has been talking about trying to pick off, but biden continues to lead in the polls. If biden starts in the clinton states, thats where youre getting that 232 from. Then you see the states that donald trump carried in 2016 and where donald trump to some degree or another is in trouble right now. I think the first thing that jumps out at you on this map is we just talked about this in the open, some states like pennsylvania may take a while to get all their votes counted. Other states may be a lot quicker. Joe biden starts out with an edge in the Electoral College, leading in polls, starts out with trump playing defense in the Electoral College. There are going to be opportunities early tuesday for joe biden to deliver some very serious blows to trump in the Electoral College, chief among them the state of florida. Its mustwin for the president because its 29 electoral votes. He carried it in 2016. It gets very hard when you look at this map that donald trump gets to 270 votes without taking florida. If biden were to get florida, it would push him right away to 261. He wouldnt be over 270. Hed be on the cusp. He would be close to just one state away, one more flip away from hitting 270. Right away, florida mustwin state for the president. If biden could get that we expect in those early hours of Election Night to get a lot of the vote in from florida. That would be a potentially devastating blow to the president right off the bat. Outside of florida, again, North Carolina, georgia, maybe ohio, a little bit later in the night texas, all states where the president is playing defense, all states where we expect a substantial number of votes to be reported out tuesday night. Each one of these, think of it essentially for the president. Its an elimination contest. He has got to run the table in these states to stay in the Electoral College. Thats the early hours potentially on tuesday night. Also later that night we expect to get a lot of the vote from arizona as well. Again the president is playing defense. If trump is able to carry all of those states to stay in contention for 270, the action would shift to pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin, those traditionally blue states that trump flipped by the skin of his teeth in 2016. Mailin ballots could take a while in pennsylvania, maybe some time to get a result in michigan and wisconsin. Well talk to the secretary of state in michigan shortly. The president would need to survive all these states we just mentioned and pick off at least one here. Thats where it could take a while. That is an early look at this. Again, theres all sorts of different permutations here. Well get to a bunch of them this hour and next couple of days. This weekend, as we mentioned, both campaigns blitzing all of these key battlegrounds. Nbc reporters are spread out across the country. Nbc political reporter ali vitale is in philadelphia following the Biden Campaign. Nbc senior White House Reporter petty pooes is following the president. You are at a live rally, the president really focusing in on florida. Whats the message hes bringing out there and whats his campaign saying about how they look at polls showing him eight, nine, ten points behind . Reporter its no accident that one of his last rallies is taking place here in miamidade county. About 60 of the population identifies as hispanic. Traditionally a democratic stronghold. But for months the Trump Campaign has been talking about how they see they are picking up latino support, particularly among people with ties to venezuela and cuba because of this strong antisocialist message that the trump has had really for several years now. This is one of their most consistent messages. Their internal numbers indicate that message is starting to pay off. While maybe hes not going to win latino voters, hes going to be able to scoop some up here. He needs that to offset the big losses among other groups, particularly seniors in this state. Trump Campaign Says they feel confident about florida, think theyre closing the gap there. As you outlined, steve, it is really a mustwin state. The path is so narrow if they cant win florida. In a way they have to be confident about here. Another factor as we see this lastminute push, about 9 Million People have already voted in florida. That is getting really close to the total ballots cast in 2016. One of the speakers here asked the crowd how many had already voted and nearly everyone cheered and raised their hand. How much any of this is going to have an impact, well have to see on those final numbers, but certainly a priority for the president. Ali vitali, priority for the Biden Campaign pennsylvania. One of the ones that got away from the democrats in 2016. With devastating electoral consequences for them. Whats the Biden Campaign trying to do to avoid a repeat of those misses pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan this time around . Reporter spend as much time there as possible and put as many organizing feet on the ground as they possible can in these final days. You look at somewhere like pennsylvania. It is the battleground state that joe biden has spent the most time in during this general election. The message that he brings here, as he does everywhere, is covid centric. Even when hes not directly talking about the virus, hes talking about the virus in terms of economic recovery, in terms of bringing back jobs. Listen to the way he talked about donald trump and the coronavirus. The truth is to beat the virus weve first got to beat donald trump. Hes a virus. Reporter look, you talk about the states that they need to win. Pennsylvania is a place that it factors in, obviously, to the biden calculus. But think of how important it is in the Trump Campaigns calculus. They need to really preserve most if not all of the states they won in 2016. So while the Biden Campaign sees several different ways they can put states together to get to 270, one of the ways they can do that is by cutting donald trump off at the pass in pennsylvania. We do know this is one of those states that the Biden Campaign has been saying they expect it to be close. At the same time they try to organize here campaigning in this what would be considered one of the more traditional battlegrounds. Than we expected biden and his running mate to be campaigning in. Thats what theyre doing again tomorrow. Its part of a twoday blitz through the keystone state. Joe biden and Kamala Harris effectively splitting the state up, joe biden taking the western half, Kamala Harris taking the eastern part of the state and trying to drive up turnout across all of those cities pittsburgh and philadelphia. As well as the suburbs. Theyre also campaigning in states they might call the expand states, the state that is the Biden Campaign sees as opportunities they could flip from 2016. States like arizona, georgia, texas, are states democrats have been looking at for quite some time that theyre wondering if now in 2020 its ripe for democrats in a president ial election year. Campaign says this weekend in arizona, North Carolina and pennsylvania they exceeded their goals in door knocks and phone calls. Thats them saying yeah, the candidates are out but theyre also still going that grassroots get out the vote turnout. Traditional way of making sure people they need to get to the polls are actually getting to the polls. Alley vitali, and shannon pettypiece, thanks to both of you for being with us. Lets take a look here at a state that many are surprise ed to see in the tossup category late in the campaign, texas. Its one democrats have had their eyes on for a long time. Over 9 million texans have already voted in this president ial race. That is more than the total number of votes that were cast in that state in 2016. The latest polls showing a tight race, one that could go either way. 38 electoral votes up for grabs there. Losing this state would obviously be a major devastating blow for the Trump Campaign. One thing to explain why this became so competitive relative to 2016. Trump won this state by nine in 2016. It was a ninepoint margin for trump in 2016. That was already underwhelming by republican standards. In texas four years earlier, mitt romney was the nominee, he carried texas by almost 16 points. In the midterm election, ted cruz retaining seat against beto orourke, republicans have lost 13 of that 16point margin that mitt romney had. The story of why that is in texas, its the metro areas. Dallasfort worth metroplex, austin area, san antonio areas. What you see here, you have seen Dramatic Movement. In some of these counties, its 20, almost 30point movement from republicans to democrats at this time. Youre talking about places with a lot of college degrees, white collar professionals. Some younger voters. Seeing Dramatic Movement to the democrats and population growth. Democrats getting more bang for their buck in these areas as well. It is why democrats have been so optimistic about texas for so long. You look at what happened there in that senate race in 2018. They got very, very close. They think maybe this could be the election that puts them over the top. From an Electoral College standpoint, you cant see trump surviving that if it were to happen. Nbc news has confirmed that the fbi is investigating the alleged harassment of a Biden Campaign bus by motorists displaying trump flags. In texas on friday. Trump weighed in saying in my opinion these patriots did nothing wrong. The Texas Supreme Court denied a republicanled petition to invalidate about 127 thousand drivethrough votes that were cast in Harris County. Thats houston. A federal court is expected to rule on the same issue tomorrow, just a day before the election. Lets go to garrett haake, who is in houston. In Harris County were talking about right now. Garrett, obviously this ruling hugely significant when you just look at the number of ballots at stake here. Talk about the implications there and the battle for texas. What are you seeing on the ground . Reporter in terms of voter access in texas, this whole election has been one step forward, two steps back. The governor added six days of early inperson voting in texas. Which is enormously popular. That same republican governor limiting the number of ballot dropoff points to just one per county. Now in closing days of the election, youve got an outside group of republicans led by notorious gadfly here, political activist suing to throw out these drivethrough ballots that were cast. That was kind of a brainchild of the Harris County clerk here, whos been trying to come up with additional ways to improve access to voting here in the county. The Texas Supreme Court threw out this lawsuit, but there is going to be this federal lawsuit tonight. I asked the clerk today if hes comfortable that feds may decide differently on this case. Heres what he told me. If the federal Court Follows the law, then well win no questions asked. The law is 100 on our side and these votes should count. There are over 100,000 voters here, democrats, republicans and everything in between and their votes should count. Reporter and steve, 100,000 votes is big deal here. You were talking about beto ted cruz race, that was decided all told by about 250,000 votes total. Just to give the sense of scale here in texas, Harris County, weve got about 1. 4 million votes already cast, in the bank in the period. Thats more than those who voted in the entire state of nevada in 2016, with more vote as than them in one county. Those are the numbers driving all of this talk about texas is a battleground state. Theyre so off the charts, theyve effectively broken the modeling for texas turnout. Texas one of those states where we do expect a substantial number of votes to be reported out on tuesday. Well have a lot to talk about. Garrett haake on the ground, thanks. Appreciate that. Coming up, were going to take a look at the big picture with some final preelection poll numbers. Those poll numbers are coming fast and furious now. But counting the votes in each state, obviously what will count in the end. Were going to talk to michigans secretary of state. About what exactly thats one of those we mentioned where it might be a little complicated, a little lengthy. What are we going to know from michigan and when . Well ask the chief Elections Official right after this. Official right after this. Its gentle on her skin, and dermatologist recommended. New tide pods plus downy free. Safe for sensitive skin with eczema and psoriasis. Maria had to do everything for me. She had these awful blisters on her back. I dont want shingles when im your age. Actually, if youre 50 or older, youre at increased risk thats life, nothing you can do. Uh, shingles can be prevented. Shingles can be whaaaat . Prevented. You can get vaccinated. Where . At your pharmacy, your doctors hold on dont want to go through that 50 years or older . Get vaccinated for shingles. Now. Straining, and bloating, again and again. No way. More exercise. More water. And more fiber is the only way to manage it. Is it . Maybe you think. Its occasional constipation. Maybe its not. It could be a chronic medical condition called ibsc, and time to say yesss to linzess. Linzess works differently than laxatives. It helps relieve belly pain and lets you have more frequent and complete bowel movements. Do not give linzess to children less than six and it should not be given to children six to less than 18, it may harm them. Do not take linzess if you have a bowel blockage. Get immediate help if you develop unusual or severe stomach pain, especially with bloody or black stools. The most common side effect is diarrhea, sometimes severe. If its severe, stop taking linzess and call your doctor right away. Other side effects include gas, stomach area pain, and swelling. Change your thinking to ibsc. If your constipation and belly pain keeps coming back, tell your doctor and say yesss to linzess. Welcome back. Lets head to michigan. Thats where both candidates have campaigned heavily this weekend. The president will be there again tomorrow. Michigans 16 electoral votes one of the reasons donald trump was able to win in 2016. It was a razorthin margin for him in michigan. Epic mra poll for the Detroit Free Press shows joe biden with sevenpoint lead over donald trump right now. 2016, of those three states trump flipped that had been democratic since the 80s, this was the narrowest. Barely 10,000 votes for donald trump over Hillary Clinton. What are we going to be watching on tuesday night . What were the ingredients that went into 2016 and we want to see if theyre still there for trump . There are a couple things here. This is wayne county, this is detroit, this is dearborn. This is core democratic territory. How strong is the turnout going to be . Can democrats get a bigger turnout in wayne county than they got in 2016 . Black voters in particular a concern for democrats. They dont think they got the turnout that they need in 2016 from black voters. Can they get that this time . This is one place were going to be looking. Another place, just north of detroit, theres two big counties right outside detroit going in Different Directions politically. Oakland county, suburbs of detroit becoming a core democratic area. Can democrats drive up the number here in Oakland County . Clinton won by eight, can they get to double digits here . And then how about mccomb county . They used to say home of the reagan democrats back in the early 80s. Trump brought back that tradition in 2016. He won this county, he flipped it. Barack obama had won it. Bluecollar, white workingclass voters here. Trump flipped this county. Can he hold onto those gains or is he going to lose them . Look in the western part of the state around grand rapids, traditionally more republican turf. Moderate republican. Is that an area where democrats are going to be able to make some gains . Well look at better tuesday night, but who better to join us than to talk about an election coming up in michigan than the states secretary of state jocelyn benson. Thank you for joining us, really appreciate it. Youre a great person to talk to because we mentioned this earlier, there are some states on Election Night particularly in the south like a florida, a North Carolina where we expect to get the vast majority of the vote in. Michigan, there seems to be a lot more question marks. You are the Elections Official in michigan. How much of the vote in michigan do you think we will be able to see on tuesday night . Well, it remains to be seen. However, we are telling people well have more of an update closer to tuesday. In fact, the morning of the election is when about 3 million absentee ballots will begin to be tabulated. Its very unlikely that well have results in any jurisdiction by the time the polls close at around 9 00. 8 00 three counties in central time. Around the time the polls close, we will make another announcement about how far we are in that tabulation process. From the moment those polls close to when we have that full tabulation, well continue to update the public. Weve said all along people should not expect, nor should they have ever expected, results out of michigan on tuesday night in part because state legislature did not change the law as we requested to give us more time to tabulate the ballots that folks in other states have. This sets up a key question for folks watching the results come in tuesday night. We have these two buckets of votes, the folks who go vote in person on election day versus the folks who voted by mail in the last couple of weeks. It looks like there could be a significant divergence in how those two groups are voting. Is your expectation on tuesday night we are going to be seeing a lot more of the sameday vote than the mailin vote . Were going to see a little bit of both. Heres why. We have 1,500 jurisdictions in michigan. Two parallel counts happening. Absentee ballots and those casting on the day. In some jurisdictions they may be ready soon after the polls close to announce a full tabulation of both. Other larger jurisdictions may still be taking some time to tally their absentee ballots. Some may announce partial counts as we move along. A lot of that is going to be determined once we know the whole universe of absentee ballots in each jurisdiction. Well know more on tuesday. Probably 3 million overall. But important statistic to keep in mind, in our august primary we had 1. 6 million absentee ballots statewide and it took 40 hours for every jurisdiction to work through them. Well have about double that in november. Were estimating it may take up to 80 hours before every jurisdiction reports out their totals. Well be updating the public as we go along and as each jurisdiction comes in. People will know everything we know as the ballot process proceeds. How much of your vote do you think roughly has been cast in the mailin phase of this . What share of votes do you think are these mailin ballots that could take some type to process in some places . About twothirds of our vote. We anticipate over 3 million will vote absentee, 2 million on election day. By no means should anyone expect the election day tabulation to be in any way a full account of the a reflection of the will of the people in michigan. It will take time to count every ballot. Every vote will be counted equally. That is what will determine winner or loser. No partial counts or determination of ballots in person versus absentee. All ballots will be counted. Thank you for taking a few minutes. Appreciate it. Sure. All right. Still to come, we talked about michigan and pennsylvania. What about wisconsin . The third one of those traditionally democratic states that flipped in 2016. Were going to take a look at the badger state, next. Ever since i got this little guy, i felt like i was just constantly cleaning up his hair. Then, i got my paws on the swiffer sweeper. Its a game changer. These heavy duty dry cloths pick up a crazy amount of hair this is all you. We stopped cleaning and started swiffering. But i will govern as an american president. Ill work with democrats and republicans. Ill work as hard for those who dont support me as for those who do. We will act on the first day of my presidency to get covid under control. Well act to pass an economic plan that will finally reward work, not wealth in this country. Well act to pass my Healthcare Plan to provide affordable, accessible healthcare. Well act to restore our faith in democracy and our faith in one another. With our voices and our votes, we must free ourselves from the forces that pull us apart, hold us down, and hold us back. And if we do so, well once more become one nation, under god, indivisible. A nation united. A nation strengthened. A nation healed. Im joe biden, and i approve this message. You know limu,g after all these years a nation healed. Its the ones that got away that haunt me the most. [ squawks ] cause youre not like everybody else. Thats why Liberty Mutual customizes your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. What . Oh, i said. Uh, this is my floor. Nooo only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Four years ago wisconsin was a crushing disappointment for democrats. They used to call it one of those blue wall states. And then Hillary Clinton lost it by less than a point in 2016 and with it the presidency. A poll out today from the New York Times does show joe biden in a very different position with an 11point lead in wisconsin. Other polls have also shown solid biden leads in recent days. Were going to take a trip in the way back machine eight years ago to 2012, because this sets up why 2016 was such a shock. 2012 barack obama got reelected in wisconsin easily. In 2012 who was mitt romneys running mate . Paul ryan of wisconsin. There was a republican from wisconsin on the ticket and they couldnt get within seven points, could the republicans. Barack obama was reelected with ease in wisconsin. So it was such a shock what happened in 2016. Take a look at the change to the political geography. Heres what happened four years later in wisconsin. Look at all that blue to red. Heres 2012, heres 2016. You see a big shift to red along the mississippi river. Other things that went wrong for democrats in wisconsin in 2016, milwaukee, turnout in milwaukee, heavily democratic city, but turnout in milwaukee was way down for democrats. Then you just had a lot of these sort of blue collar Rural Counties flip in the state. Tough to find many other states with as many countries flip from blue to red as in wisconsin. It added up to a 23,000 vote victory there for donald trump. I believe when wisconsin was called, so was the presidency in 2016. The polls now are showing a different story for democrats potentially. Washington bureau chief Craig Gilbert knows wisconsin politics better than anyone out there. Thanks for joining us, appreciate having you on. Wisconsin in 2016, we show trump winning. There was also a big polling miss in wisconsin in 2016, meaning, the final polls had Hillary Clinton solidly ahead and then she lost. Now we see the final polls putting joe biden solidly ahead in wisconsin. What is the sense on the ground out there . Is the sense that joe biden really is in good shape in wisconsin or weve seen this before, the polls setting up to be wrong again . I think the answer is both. We havent seen really tangible signs of bidens lead shrinking. You talked about the polls. Weve had a lot of polls with biden up five or ten. I think its toward the smaller end of that range because wisconsin is so polarized. Democrats certainly are haunted by what happened in 2016 and it creates that, you know, little bit of uncertainty. If its closer to five than it is to ten, then you can imagine if donald trump can find a way to change the composition of the electorate and theres a good republican turnout machine in wisconsin, which there is, that could close the gap a little bit more. It is what it is. Luke a lot of the other states, youd rather be in joe bidens position than Donald Trumps position, but this state has a tantalizing history of surprises. Recent polls have shown joe biden doing particularly well in wisconsin, they have coincided with the covid outbreak really taking hold in wisconsin, getting it the worst of just about any state right now. Is there a sense of any connection that covid has grabbed hold in wisconsin and had an effect on the president ial race in this state . In some of the polls the numbers have changed very little. So we all suspect that covid is playing a role, but the numbers arent that dramatic on that score. In one of the leading polls in wisconsin, the marquette poll, the numbers have been basically etched in stone since may. But one thing thats going on that helps explain joe bidens lead in wisconsin, hes a lot more competitive than Hillary Clinton with blue collar voters and in those obama trump counties, if you bring it down to the local level, theres more than 500 cities, towns and villages in wisconsin that voted for obama and trump, thats 30 of the municipalities in the state, mostly in that area of wisconsin. Thats been a big factor behind joe bidens advantage in this state. We were talking about this in michigan a minute ago too. Pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin are wild cards on tuesday night just with the question of how is the vote going to be reported out. Is this going to be one of the states where you get a ton of the sameday vote that might favor the president and then days later you get the mailin vote that might swing it the other way . What do you expect that sequence to look like in wisconsin . Weve got more than 1. 8 million absentee ballots thats close to twothirds of the 2016 vote. Wrinkle in wisconsin all conducted at local level. Theres more than 1800 jurisdictions. 39 of them count absentee ballots separately than election day votes. The rest of them count them together. In those places where they count them separately, were expecting to get the absentee vote later. Chief among them is the city of milwaukee, which is the states biggest city. Its very democratic. Youre going to have more than half a million of absentee ballots in those 39 communities that are going to be reported later than the election day ballots and theyre going to have a democratic skew. Because one is the city of milwaukee. Folks watching 2018 midterms closely might remember the governors race was called late because of milwaukee. Something to keep in mind. Craig gilbert, thank you so much for taking a few minutes. Appreciate the time. And some final preelection poll numbers straight ahead. Stay with us. Frustrated that your clothes get damaged when you wash them, and they just dont look the same . Well now theres a solution, with downy defy damage. Downy defy damage protects your clothes from the stretching, fading and fuzzing that happens throughout the wash process, all cycle long simply toss in detergent, add defy beads, then toss in your clothes. And downy defys unique formula conditions and protects fibers, so clothes stay looking newer, longer now you can protect your clothes so they look newer, longer, with downy defy damage. Sprinting past every leak in our softest, smoothest fabric. Shes confident, protected, her strength respected. Depend. The only thing stronger than us, is you. Depend. Hey while the guys arentcatch listening. We need your help. Your platforms are toxic to women who lead. We are targeted with ugly and violent language, with threats of sexual assault, coordinated bots attack women for political gain. We have asked facebook to do better, our freedom, our democracy is at risk. We are fighting back, and were asking you to join us. Weve got your back, do you have ours . You know, lean in. In 48 hours from now, polls are going to be closing, results are going to be pouring in. Heres where things stand nationwide. You are looking at the final preelection nbc news wall street journal poll. It shows joe biden leading donald trump by ten points. Nbc News National polling average, puts donald trump at 44 , biden at 52 . Eightpoint gap there. All of this comes as many counties across the country are breaking early voting records. More than 93 Million People have already voted in this election. Like to bring in panel of experts to talk about the broader view of where things stand. Already vote in this election. Mark murray, senior Political Editor for nbc news, Maria Hinojosa of latino usa. Author of once i was you, and eugene robinson, thanks to all of you for being with us. Having flashbacks here the last few segments looking back at 2016 electoral maps, that very precise and narrow route donald trump took to the presidency, you look at the polls now. It is a wider lead for biden than donald trump had going into the home stretch of 2016. I think that memory of 2016 seems to inform a lot of the thinking heading into tuesday where even if biden is ahead, it certainly feels like there is a lot of suspense here. I dont know if its suspense or ptsd for a lot of people. I dont know. Generals often make the mistake of fighting the last war as opposed to the war theyre in now. Sometimes i think we forget to look at how the nation has evolved, how the political situation has changed, how circumstances are different this time and take that into account and not just totally be overshadowed by 2016 as we try to decipher these polls. By the way, how do you poll an election where 93 Million People have already voted . Were talking about polls of an election thats already somewhere between half over and twothirds over, right . Those votes are already cast. So this is, in that sense, at least to me, kind of uncharted territory, but, yes, you would rather be the candidate shown to have a tenpoint lead in the nbc poll than the candidate shown to be ten points behind. Mark murray, there was a quote here from bill mcinturf. Republican half of the nbc wall street journal pollsters. He said this election is probably the most competitive tenpoint race ive ever seen. Sounds like a contradiction of terms. But i think what hes getting to, you look and states and you dont see tenpoint gaps there. You end up seeing some sizable gaps in pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin and then just a bunch of states where trump maybe has to overcome one, two, threepoint gaps. You add them together, its a daunting task, but you could see them individually. I think the biggest advantage trump had going into this election beyond incumbency is the Electoral College advantage the republicans have. We saw it four years ago where republicans could end up losing the popular vote by two Percentage Points and still win the presidency. Even going into several months ago, it was seen that joe biden would need to win the popular vote by four, five or six Percentage Points just to be in the clear. That situation where our poll that shows joe biden with a tenpoint lead nationally among registered voters but in the battleground states, joe bidens lead goes to six points. Still competitive, but it goes to show the advantage that republicans do have in our Electoral College system as it exists right now. Youre getting at this, but it does seem if you try to sketch together on the electoral map a Trump Victory scenario right now where he just gets over 270, it very likely would require him to be losing the popular vote by a significantly wider margin than he did in 2016. Yeah. What that actually ends up meaning, if the president does pull off a surprise victory and loses the popular vote by five or six Percentage Points, i think that would actually wind up being more controversial than what happened in 2016 and once again republicans would not end up winning the popular vote and yet another president ial cycle. Steve, one other point of what is different about 2016 and 2020, to me, is just really the trajectory of this race. Hillary clinton had a doubledigit lead in many polls in midoctober after access hollywood, then she lost altitude in that race. This race has been remarkably stable where joe biden has had a consistent seven to 11point lead in our polling. To me thats been one of the big differences between 2016 and now. Maria, i want to talk about the latino vote. Weve seen interesting numbers in the last week here. If you look at florida, our telemundo poll finds that among latino voters, the lead for joe biden is down to just five points. If you look at the exit polls for 2016, Hillary Clinton won by 30 points. When you look at texas for instance, there was a poll there this week that still showed a very healthy democratic lead with latino voters. The shift that were seeing in some of the polls among latino voters in florida, do you think that is a florida specific shift driven largely by cuban americans and sort of a longer standing allegiance to the Republican Party thats kind of reasserting itself, or is there a Broader Movement that you could see the potential for in other states like texas or arizona . Both. On the one hand there was a very specific targeting by the Trump Campaign not just in the last year or two, but in the last three actually to go after latino voters, republicans in florida, many of them evangelicals. Theyve also had a broader base perspective talking about loyalty of longterm latino and latina democrats for example in the state of texas. What were not talking about and what im really focusing on is the youth vote. Latinos and latinas between the ages of 1827 right now have the highest rate of actually showing up and doing the early voting. Whos actually polling those numbers . Whos looking at that specificity . At the same time you have to understand that there is a sector of latino men who are going to go after the guy whos looking tough and acting tough and looking and acting like a bully. Thats not just because theyre latinos. Its because they respond to somebody who acts like a bully. But if you take everything youve been doing, ive been watching you for hours, like so many people, it looks like donald trump is up against a wall he built of voters coming up against him. Well see if that holds true on election day north. All right. Maria hinojosa, mark murray, eugene robinson, thank you all for being with us tonight. Appreciate that. And georgia, we talked about a lot of midwest states. What about georgia . The last time it went for a democrat, bill clinton back in 1992. 28 years ago. Is it going to flip back to the democrats in 2020 . Well talk about that in just a minute. Insulin injections can make diabetes complicated. Meet omnipod it delivers insulin through a tubeless pod. Just one small pod replaces up to 14 injections and today you can get started with a 30day omnipod dash trial at omnipod. Com. No more daily injections. Its gamechanging get started with a free 30day omnipod dash trial today. Go to omnipod. Com for risk information, instructions for use and free trial terms and conditions. Consult your Healthcare Provider before starting on omnipod. Simplify diabetes. Simplify life. Omnipod. I have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. Now, theres skyrizi. 3 out of 4 people achieved 90 clearer skin at 4 months after just 2 doses. Skyrizi may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. Before treatment your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms such as fevers, sweats, chills, muscle aches or coughs, or if you plan to or recently received a vaccine. Nothing is everything ask your dermatologist about skyrizi. Nothing is everything brad apartmentsdotcom makes easier than ever. W home woman 1 how hot do you think it is . woman 2 a million. If only we had a c. Im so happy. brad apartmentsdotcom. The most popular place to find a place. Its still warm. Thanks, alice says hi. For some of us, our daily journey is a short one. Save 50 when you pay per mile with allstate. Pay less, when you drive less. Youve never been in better hands. Allstate. Click or call for a quote today. A diagnosis of Metastatic Breast Cancer can overwhelm you with thoughts, yet also leave you at a loss for words. Take a deep breath. Go here findyourmbcvoice. Com well, the state of georgia hasnt supported a democratic candidate for president since back in 1992. And while joe biden does lead donald trump in three recent polls, most of those margins are within the margin of error. But nbc news reports that democrats remain hopeful about georgia, due in part to an influx of collegeeducated voters in the atlanta area. Recent polling shows that white suburban women, in particular, might vote democratic this time around. The sheer number of newly registered voters, many of them africanamerican who have already cast their ballots could play a role, too. Lets take a closer look here at georgia. We mentioned recent polling giving democrats hope in georgia. Lets take a look here at what happened in 2016 in georgia. Donald trump did carry the state. The margin was only about five points so this wasnt too far off. At least by raw numbers to democrats. But we mentioned this, the Atlanta Metro area, see nine counties here in and around atlanta that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. This is the heart of democratic hopes in atlanta. In 2016 just those 9 blue counties you see there, Hillary Clintons margin in those counties put together was 29 points. If you go outside those nine counties to the rest of the state, the margin was 29 points the other way. It was trump by 29. Clinton by 29. Trump by 29. And it added up to a Trump Victory statewide. Interestingly, in 2018 when Stacey Abrams, the democrat, almost got elected governor of georgia, these same nine counties, she didnt win them by 29. She won them by 36. So shes squeezed more votes out of this core democratic area than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. It brought her much closer statewide. More votes, and by the way, fastgrowing areas here. Every year adding more and more people, more and more voters to these areas. So that is a big question for democrats and for joe biden on tuesday. Look what clinton did. Look what abrams did in this core democratic area. When it comes to raw support and when it comes to turnout, can he do even better . The Stacey Abrams number brought democrats to the cusp of victory in georgia. They got a shot to go over the top on tuesday. Would be huge Electoral College ramifications, obviously, if they did. By the way, georgia one of those states we think were going to get a lot of numbers from early. So thats going to wrap it up for us this hour, though, thank you for watching. Tune in tuesday, the Election Night of our lifetimes. 4 00 p. M. Eastern. You can join Nicolle Wallace for special coverage followed by chris hayes at 5 00. Then at 6 00, im going to be at the big board. Were going to break down the numbers with brian williams, Rachel Maddow, joy reid and Nicolle Wallace there to help us put it in context. Election night coverage begins tuesday 4 00 p. M. Eastern on msnbc. And be sure to check in with Joshua Johnson during the day on nbc news now. That is monday from noon to 2 00 and election day from noon to 3 00. You dont want to miss that. Thank you for watching, and have a great night. Actually anyone 50 or over is at increased risk for shingles. The pain, the burning my husband had to do everything for weeks. And the thing is, theres nothing you can do about it shingles can be prevented. Shingles can be whaaat . Prevented. You can get vaccinated. Frank they have shingles vaccines whaaat . Thats what i said. Were taking you to the doctor. Not going through that again. You can also get it from your pharmacist 50 years or older . Get vaccinated for shingles. Now. Frnext time try bounce wrinkleut ofguard dryer sheets. . 50 years or older . Get vaccinated for shingles. The worlds first mega sheet with 3x more wrinkle relaxers. Look at the difference of these two shirts. The wrinkle guard shirt has less wrinkles and static, and more softness and freshness. To tame wrinkles on the go use bounce 3in1 rapid touch up spray. Bounce out wrinkles with bounce wrinkle guard dryer sheets and touch up spray both, with a money back guarantee. Who takes care of yourself. So why wait to screen for colon cancer . Because when caught in early stages, its more treatable. Im cologuard. Im noninvasive and detect altered dna in your stool to find 92 of colon cancers. Even in early stages. Tell me more. Its for people 45 plus at average risk for colon cancer, not high risk. False positive and negative results may occur. Ask your prescriber or an online prescriber if cologuard is right for you. Ill get on it thats a step in the right direction. Straining, and bloating, again and again. No way. More exercise. More water. And more fiber is the only way to manage it. Is it . Maybe you think. Its occasional constipation. Maybe its not. It could be a chronic medical condition called ibsc, and time to say yesss to linzess. Linzess works differently than laxatives. It helps relieve belly pain and lets you have more frequent and complete bowel movements. Do not give linzess to children less than six and it should not be given to children six to less than 18, it may harm them. Do not take linzess if you have a bowel blockage. Get immediate help if you develop unusual or severe stomach pain, especially with bloody or black stools. The most common side effect is diarrhea, sometimes severe. If its severe, stop taking linzess and call your doctor right away. Other side effects include gas, stomach area pain, and swelling. Change your thinking to ibsc. If your constipation and belly pain keeps coming back, tell your doctor and say yesss to linzess. From msnbc, decision 2020, Election Night. Live from democracy plaza, here now are Rachel Maddow and brian williams
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