Transcripts For MSNBCW All In With Chris Hayes 20171213

41 seconds ago. Theres a lot to keep an eye on as the returns come in and we begin tonight with our first fresh exclusive look at the actual exit polls for the day. Joining me to breakdown the latest batch of exit poll data hot off the presses, msnbc National Political correspondent Steve Kornacki. As this happens at 5 00, i believe . Now this is the apm, this is the full day what can you tell us . Just in, the last five minutes, basically the headline from this, theres something in here that each campaigns going to like. Let me take you through what we have. First of all this question of composition of the electorate. What did it look like today . The headline from these numbers is this. 30 of the electorate right now in the exit poll is black. We talked in the runup to this race about how important to demok made up 28 of the electorate. Tc that was supposed to be the high watermark for democrats. Good news was 26 , 27 . Right now an exit poll seth 30 of this electorate is black tonight. So that is extremely good news for democrats. I say theres something in here for both parties. I want to go through and see obama in 2012 got 15 , got blown out in the state. The threshold was 30 , 35 , depending. This is a touch lower than the Jones Campaign wants to be seeing, 27 . Break it down, hes losing double digits with collegeeducated white voters. Thats the group he thought he could make inroads with. So Jones Campaign may be a little short in this exit poll with white voters. They also are doing a little better with black voters than they thought. So chris, as i said, there is something here for each campaign right now. Obviously we dont have any returns yet. And one of the things thats happened in the runup to this election is its almost created a new kind of way of pollsters communicating. Because it is such a black box to everyone. How the heck to model what this electorate looks like. These those two data points would seem to be in line with a kind of pollster average and pollster predictions of a close race. Wherever that closeness ends up. Yeah, and mean, again, if you looked at this right now, if you took each one of these in isolation, if we just looked at the white vote in this race, wed be saying, okay, you know what this was a good night for roy moore. If you said to anybody coming into today that 30 of the electorate was going to be blacn tonight, oh my god, thats beyond best case scenario. So i think this is looking close right now. Cliche, well see what happens when the returns come in. But you talk about those models beforehand. Nobody was talking about 30 black vote. Give us a little context. Its funny because you talk about 2012, the last time barack obama was on the ballot, you get a fairly high black turnout for the state of alabama. Of course obama loses by 23 pints or something in the neighborhood of 23 points in 2012. I mean, it has beene2qb a very time since there was a very competitive statewide federal race in the state of alabama. Yeah, 1996, that was the year Jeff Sessions won his senate seat the first time, the margin was 7 points in alabama. The last time you had a singledigit senate race in alabama. Last time you got within a couple of points, 1 point. 1996. Richard shelby, the current senior republican senator, he won his seat in 86 by a fraction of a point. Otherwise, races with 30, 40 points, sessions essentially unopposed one year, thats been the norm. One more question. Those races are happening before the partisan shortingout is happening in the south like y its sort of the postcivil war regime crumbles  in the and 90s, now a solid bloc of Republican Voters. The final question here. Youve been making this point, i think its an interesting one as we look at more exit polling data, things about abortion, things about what party you support, who you want to be running the u. S. Senate. You made this point, i think its very astute, if this were a statewide Supreme Court race, you think moore would basically be toast. L that the thing that has kept him going is that voters, particularly diehard, bleedred Republican Voters, are thinking, i may not like roy moore but what is at stake is control of the United States senate federally. Take a look, i think we can call this up here. This was roy moores last election in alabama. Five years ago hes on the ballot, mitt romneys winning the state on this same day with 62 of the vote. Roy moore barely wins this election. Roy moore, before any of the baggage weve talked about for the last few weeks, he had enough baggage to nearly lose a statewide race where theres no issues of who are you going to appoint a Supreme Court justice to decide roe versus wade . Its not attached to any of that. U7c huge liability for the republicans in 2012 before all of this. 0dz again, we have in an exit poll finding, which party do you want controlling the senate . They say republicans. Moores hoping people vote for the party, not the person. One more followup require think its word noting as well. You talk about roy moore and what makes this the race so hard to figure out. Roy moore as singular figure. He wins that race, goes back to the state Supreme Court, hes been removed once for disobeying federal law. He will then end up removed again, right . So even when he jumps into this primary and before hx t the Washington Post story in which a 14yearold says he picked her up outside a custody hearing and molested her. Before that, after that election, which he ekes out by 4 points, he gets removed again from the state Supreme Court in alabama. And that was over the issue of gay marriage. It was the Ten Commandments a decade ago. Then it was gay marriage. If roy moore is a figure now basically two decades in alabama, this is a very well known guy. This is an intensely polarizing figure in alabama. Then you throw all of this in. Its the ultimate test between person and party. Po on this. Doug jones was from the beginning a credible candidate, whether people are going to vote for him or not. This is not someone they found at the last second, this was someone who had a profile, a resume, a story to tell. His run i think as a campaign, a very respectable campaign. I think the one question, if he comes up short, who knows, there5u thing people will look at, not so much a question of strategy, but just sort of a whatif, is that question of abortion. Because its in the exit poll tonight. 54 of alabamians say they believe abortion should be illegal. He took a prochoice positig,h;n this race. Thats something the moore people were talking about. Thats something they wanted to bring up. Can you win with the prochoice label in one of the most antiabortion states in the country . You couldnt get seven seconds into conversation with any moore surrogate anywhere in the state of alabamaefih with abortion coming up. They clearly thought that and control of the senate is their ace in the hole. Steve kornacki, that was great. Were going to check back with you throughout the night. Lets go to montgomery, alabama. The Roy Moore Election night headquarters. Weve got nbc news correspondent Vaughn Hilliard standing by. I want to saya88un you have bee doing phenomenal reporting on this race throughout. Ive been following everything youve been posting. Great interviews, talking to lots of voters. How would you characterize how folks have been talking about this race in the final stretch . I appreciate uay chris. I should note that when we were looking at talking to these voters, theres two types of voters. Theres hesitant voters that are hesitant about roting for roy moore, understanding the allegations against him theres also hesitant voters who are not open about their5 willnessing vote for democrat doug jones. Today montgomery, there were several people, they will tell you, i dont want to tell you hoy voted for. Finally iehd0x convinced them tl mexeo. n to the side, without their name, not on camera. They were republicans who were opening and up saying, we voted foreq5l doug joents. Many saying, for the first time in their lives. I talked with a schoolteacher, amanda adams, who said she hasnt voted for a democrat in 20 years but she said she was willing to make that sacrifice despite knowing what it may mean to the u. S. Senate and vote for doug jones, democrat in this race. I want to bring up what is i think interesting. I just finished talking with a Campaign Official here at roy moore headquarters watch party. Usually at this point, were just five÷hn minutes after the polls closing, usually the campaigns have a little better sense of tracking of where this race is. Yesterday a Campaign Official for moore told me . R they were confident, up 8. 5 , suggesting they were baked in, winning this, while maintaining support in the more traditionally conservative places like baldwin and shelby county. Just now i said, where do you feel youre at . They said, were seeing high voter turnout. Couldnt offer specifics. Talking with the doug Jones Campaign this afternoon, they also said, were seeing a high voter turnout. Its very much up in the air what that means. You went throu all those exit polls there with steve. And its tough. Weve been here for more than a month. To try to track down particularly where those republican crossover voters, its very difficult. I think they were questioning up to this very end. One last number i want to throw out from exit polls is 31 of roy moore voters here today say they voted for him despite hesitancy. Which was in stark contrast to those, about 80 , that said for doug jones that they voted for him with full confidence, without hesitancy. Zs÷ so its a question of how many republicans voted him knowing that. A great point by vaughn there about shyyzky6 voters in both c not wanting to publicize their vote for different kind of sets of reasons. And von, that point about crossover republicans. Between high turnout among youn voters and africanamerican voters, some segment of crossover voters is necessary state that donald trump won by nearly 30 points. Vaughn hillyer at the montgomery headquarters, well come back to you. Birmingham, alabama, to the doug jones Election Night par3an n n news correspondent katie beck, whats happening there . Good evening. L uatz in here in. At a d speaking to voters, also encountering a lot of that,4yh consternation that vaughn was we heard from one gentleman who said he was writing in nick saban instead of voting for roy moore. He said he was a long have time alabama fan, he simply didnt know what to do, he had a crisis when he headed into the polls and thats how he came out. But these voters, obviously this is something theyve been wrestling with, seeing the national attention. And they expressed to me how hard this hasidzn been on alabas a state. A lot of them feel theyve been misportrayed in the media, feel theyve been center stage for something they dont want to be although it should be noted if roy moore is United States ju senator, the National Coverage and National Spotlight on him individually in the state of alabama will probably continue. Katie beck, thank you for the update, appreciate it. ciz thank you. With me now, Democratic National committee tom perez, who was in alabama this weekend working to get out the vote for doug jones. And tom, bfqb3 y there was somd forth about the whether the dnc was going to commit to this race. Am i right that you were there this weekend this. No,y2y i wasnt tmttny we had our team there, chris. We have hood a team there throughout, frankly from before the republican primary, because weve been allin for a long time. Doug jones is a spectacular candidate. And this case wasnt about right versus left, its about right versus wrong. Doug stands for everything that we should be fighting for. heres the problem that strikes me if youre running the dnc, as you are. The democratic brand is not great in alabama. Thats not a knock on the Democratic Party, just is the fact of the matterm÷ go in that state. What do you do when the Democratic Party brand is not great, but theres a huge amount of grass roots energy, a huge amount of grass roots fundraising. You obviously want doug jones to win a race that as of the last six d™eeks looks possible. What do you do to help him win without tying up the National Party in a way that hurts him . P do to helpurc ÷ candidates. Thats what we did for doug. Doug has a 67county strategy. Because not only does he have to win in birmingham and huntsville and mobile and montgomery and the bike belt, he has to hold his own in other counties. He cant get shellacked like prior Democratic Candidates got. We invested in organizing, we invested in digital, were out there. Cn7d turning out voters, knocking on doors. Calling people. Texting people. Thats what campaigns are about. Thats what the new Democratic Party is about. Organizing, organizing everywhere. Helping democrats win. I understand that youre responsible for organizing and not messages but let me ask you this given that its a conservative state and people have the politics they have, and doug jones is democrat, what do4 you talk about to Republican Voters in those sorts of places where you cant get crushed as you say that is both true to the core values of the Democratic Party and is also youre going to find some sort of receptive audience among folks that have been voting republican in alabama . Well, you talk about the issues they care about. Doug jones is all about kitchentable. He was talking about good jobs. He was talking about theu,ji lc that his dad was a steel , he understands blue collar work. Hes talking about the fact that if obamacare gets repealed, im sure he doesnt call it obamacare, but if it gets repealed, that the access to that rural clinic is at risk. As you know, we talked a lot in virginia, the number one issue for voters in virginia was health care. They went overwhelmingly for the democrat. So the beauty of this situation is theop 7x message of Economic Opportunity is a message i think that resonates everywhere. The voters of alabama, and i have spent a lot of time out there because ive done civil rights work down in alabama. Thats how i met doug. Ive known him almost 20 years. The voters of alabama dont want someone in washington whos fighting culture wars. Thats what roy moore wants to do. They want someone whos fighting for good jobs, for fair wages, for access to health care. Let me ask you about that. One of the things a lot of people have pointed to in reporting on this race down there, and we looked at the cross tabs about abortion. This is a very, very antiabortion state. That is the way thats the place the electorate is. Its very antiabortion state among black voters as well. Although theres a majority that support it. Its a higher number that are opposed to owe abortion in that state than other plates in other states. Is there a problem for doug jones in taking essentially the national Democratic Partys line on this issue in alabama . Listen, as vaughns. Thing a few minutes go highlighted, for a lot of voters in alabama, this came down to not an issue of right versus left, but right versus wrong. The Family Values Party cant possibly be the party of roy moore. This is more than about party. And i admire the republicans and the democrats and independents in alabama that have understood that there are times when you go to the voting booth that its about more than one issue. Its about your identity as a state and as a nation. As doug correctly said, vocals involved in abusing children should be prosecuted, not put in the u. S. Senate. I think a lot of folks understood that. Ive talked to a lot of businesspeople in alabama over the course of the work i have done, and theyre for doug jones because they know hes going to fight for a Good Business climate in alabama. How do you go recruit businesses tol n come into alabama when yo number one surrogate is roy moore . How do you make that sell to that company . That was a team that doug jones was hitting particularly down the stretch of this campaign. Tom perez, thanks for making time for me this evening. Pleasure to be with you. Much more on the highstakes senate race in alabama, how it got to this point, the reverberations on capitol hill. The elected. And the loselose situation the Republican Party as a whole findsist find s itself in at this hour. I generall lly consider mys to be a republican but today i voted democrat for doug jones. I do believe that roy moore is a sexual predator. Hes been removed from office twice. So in my opinion he thinks hes above the law. I voted for roy moore. And i just believe a man, until hes actually convicted of something, you cant go by hearsay or what other democrats what other parties are trying to say he has done. Alabama senate race is one of the strangest elections in years, if not decades. Republican roy moore was already disliked by a wide swath of his party because of his homophobe yeah his religious bigotry, and his in your face lawlessness that got him removed from the Supreme Court twice. Then came the Sexual Misconduct accusations. The Washington Post reporting an allegation that roy moore had molested a 14yearold girl. Allegations of Sexual Assault of other teens followed. A deep, deep conservative bonered state where a democrat has a chance to win a senate seat. Josh moon the alabama political reporter joins me live from montgomery. Josh, start on the dynamics of the last six week in the wake of the Washington Post revelat n revelations and how that shaped the terrain of this race. You know, its funny to me that it seems like we had this whole setup here with kind of the cult of roy moore. You know, and these people who have been around for a long time in this state. These guys who he could rely on forever here that were going to show up and vote at any election that he was in. He was going to get this small percentage of people out there to vote for him. And then slowly over time, after that Washington Post story hit, you kind of saw an erosion of the people who were going to hold their nose and vote for him. Among the republicans here in this state. Because thats what a whole lot of republicans were doing here, they were going to hold their nose, vote for the republican, toe the party line. I think you lost a lot of those people as the story went further and further without any real answer from roy moore. Theres a real question about the backlash effect that if the Moore Campaign and trump coming back around to moore and endorsing him explicitly it could basically turn this into a story about the liberal media and the carpet baggers and george soros involved in some conspiracy, if they could rally folks i wonder how much traction do you think that kind of backlashstoking had . You know its unclear to me, really. Because i think a lot of the people that you heard that from were already those hardcore roy moore supporters. Right. You know, they wanted to vote for roy moore and they were out looking for reasons to do so. So they bought into the conspiracies of george soros, which, i mean, come on, man. You know . What are we talking about here . I mean, you know, its just so foolish. These people, these women that theyre talking about, you hear their trends and fafriends and about them, theyve lived in these towns their entire lives, everybody knew them, most people knew these stories who were close to these women. The idea that all of a sudden george soros has come in and, you know, concocted this conspiracy to get rid of roy moore, its just so absurd. But people bought it. Because this was who they wanted to vote for. And they wanted to believe this nonsense. Final question. How much particularly barkley had a line, weve got to stop looking like idiots to the world, barkley an alabama native, he was there for doug jones. How much do you think thats in the mind of voters about how alabama looks to nonalabamians . I believe thats a big thing right now. I really, really do. I think there are a lot of good people in this state who have now seen us through the eyes of the national media. And theyve taken a look at some of the goobers we put on tv the last month here to say just ridiculously absurd things. And they are embarrassed by it. They want to get rid of some of these people. And i mean, who could blame them . If youve watched some of these interviews. I think that this is its a real turning point, or it could be. All right, josh moon, thanks for joining me tonight, ive appreciated you analysis throughout this race. Thanks, chris. All right. As we look at the very early returns in the Alabama Senate race, the race is still too early to call. Theres only 1 of precincts in. Coverage of the election continues including one democratic congresswomans calls to take precautionary measures to protect teenagers working on capitol hill in the event roy moore wins tonight, that story next. Ings are going to speak louder than words. All this mess is going to be over with a vote. The verdict rests on the people of alabama. Were back with live coverage of the special Senate Election in alabama where the votes are still being counted. Right now nbc news is characterizing the race as too early to call. Weve got 1 in. If you look in the upper righthand corner. Those results essentially meaningless at this hour. The 70 and the 30 . Republican roy moore is hoping voters will essentially absolve him tonight of multiple credible allegations of Sexual Misconduct. Some involving teenaged girls as young as 14. Hes trying to follow the same path laid out by the president last year. Win the election, case closed. But even if moore wins tonight, it will not be the end of the story, because if moore wins, he will be walking into the capitol just as other male lawmakers are being kicked out for allegations of their own. In that climate, some of his fellow republicans, including Senate Majority leader mitch mcconnell, are already calling for moore to underabout an ethics investigation if and when he gets to washington. Across the aisle democrats arent waiting for the final results to prepare for moores arrival. Congresswoman gwen moore called for new protections for senate pages writing, it would be unconscionable for congress to not be vigilant and proactive in taking precautions to safeguard these children, given the wellsourced allegations against roy moore. If the president is the model for moving beyond Sexual Misconduct allegations, the past few days dont offer roy moore a ton of hope. Some of the president s own accusers are back in the spotlight demanding a me too moment of their own. Dozens of democrats in congress are calling for an investigation into the president s behavior and a growing number of Senate Democrats are calling on the president to resign immediately from office. Now trump being trump, he could not resist dumping gasoline on that particular fire. His choice words for senator Kirsten Gillibrand next. After a number of women came lets start with the results. The Alabama Senate race of course polls closed about 32 minutes ago. We have just 1 in. Doug jones there on the left, roy moore on the right. Of course its going to be a long night if precedent is anything in alabama, where it takes quite a while. We do not know what this race will do tonight. It is characterized at too early to call at this moment, although we have our very own Steve Kornacki whos working on precinct by precinct data that might give us a little bit of a clue. Were going to go to him in a little bit. After a number of women came forward yet again to describe being groped or harassed by the man who is now president of the United States, new york senator Kirsten Gillibrand became the latest Senate Democrat to call on the president to resign. Shes been a leader on the issue of Sexual Assault in the military, was the first colleague to publicly call on senator al franken to resign over his own Sexual Misconduct allegations. Her comments appear to have gotten under the president s notoriously thin skin. Lightweight senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a total flunky for chuck schumer, someone who would come to my office begging for Campaign Contributions and would do anything for them is now in the ring fighting against trump, very disloyal to bill and crooked, used. Okay. The president s apparent innuendo drew swift and forceful condemnation from democrats on capitol hill, including senator gillibrand herself. It was a sexist smear attempting to silence my voice. And i will not be silenced on this issue. Neither will the women who stood up to the president yesterday. Neither will the millions of women who have been marching since the womens march to stand up against policies they do not agree with. According to white house spokesperson Sarah Huckabee sanders, there was nothing remotely suggestive about the president s tweet. Theres no way that this is sexist at all. This is simply talking about a system that we have that is broken in which special interests control our government. And i dont think that theres probably many people that are more controlled by political contributions than the senator that the president referenced. Congresswoman jackie speier, democrat from california, has been leading calls for congressional investigation into the allegations against the president. Let me start with what the president had to say about your colleague Kirsten Gillibrand, whats your reaction . Actually one of disbelief. When i first heard it, i kind of lost my breath. I thought, this grotesque statement by the president of the United States, which suggests that virtually any woman in this country, how dare you. How dare you demean another woman in that manner. How dare you be the president of the United States and conduct yourself in that manner. He is so ill equipped to be the president. And every day theres yet another tweet to substantiate that. You know, the idea of investigation him in congress over the allegations that are already public and already on the record and have been in most cases for over a year has really picked up steam recently. Youve been calling for that. What would that even look like . Well, we have requested that the Government Affairs and Oversight Committee take on that responsibility. Trey gouddy this evening sent a letter saying, this is criminal conduct and should be looked at by the department of justice. So were referring it there. Interesting approach to take. I think whats most important is that these 19 women who have called out the president for what was sexually harassing conduct at different times in their lives should be aired. We should hear from them. Nikki haley, the ambassador to the u. N. By the president and fellow republican, has said these women should be heard. And weve got to create a forum so they can be. Do you think all this do you think the president thought that he would never have to hear about this again after he won, and how do you think he feels about having to hear about it again . I think it does get under his skin. I think what is most disturbing about it is how he so swiftly says, they lied, they lied. Women dont lie about this. Women are very loath to come forward. 70 of those who are sexually harassed never report it because they are fearful of what will happen, retaliation, having them looked upon as being liars, all of that bodes for not coming forward. So if theyre willing to come forward, there is truth to what theyre saying. This is a question, personal question, id like you to answer honestly if you can. Roy moore might be elected to the United States senate. I imagine theres some professional context in which youd meet roy moore, stand across from him. What would you do . I wouldnt shake his hand. I probably wouldnt even recognize his existence. He shouldnt be in the senate but thats something the senates going to have to decide for itself. They have talked about referring it to the ethics committee. And that is the appropriate place to which it should be sent. All right, congresswoman jackie speier, thanks for your time tonight. Rebecca tracer, writer at large for new York Magazine where she profiled senator gillibrand a few months ago. Since we have alabama rolling in the background here, this does seem to be whatever happens, particularly were roy moore to win, another moment when its like, youre loading the spring of the backlash. You know . Of the anger that folks feel about people getting away with this. Right. It depends on which version of the backlash youre talking about. Right. I mean the backlash against the normalization of harassment, assault, and accepted jen dir discrimination in our public sphere and other places, yeah. Id say theres backlash to that. Yeah, i think you are. But on the other hand, if he loses, its going to tell us how rampant the anger already is and the kind of electoral power its having. We have evidence of that even in the fact that the election looks to be that it might be as close as its going to be. I mean, this is unheard of in alabama, for a Crucial Senate seat, for a seat that the republicans need, the fact that its going to be close at all, if it indeed is going to be, it looks like it may be. That is telling us a lot about how much this issue and the broader issue of sexism is beginning to have electoral impact. You can see that from virginia elections, special elections that took place in georgia, local elections where Democratic Women won. I think were beginning to see electoral reverberations here that are real. Its an interesting point. So much of the commentary tends to be well, its alabama, hes still roy moore. How is this even close . But that point i think is important. This is something that people have been saying which is that, the allegations have had a big impact. This is a close race right now. Because a significant portion of people do believe these women. Donald trump won alabama by 30 points. Is that right . Yes, yes. We also just elected donald trump president. I mean, the speed at which these things good point, yes. Just a year ago. It was just a year ago we leaked donald trump president. The speed at which these things change. Theres fascinating polling that was released by a pollster named trace undam about the speed with which the interest in looking at Sexual Harassment as related to the kind of power that men have, that interest is spreading to republicans, to trump supporters. Thats interesting. There are huge numbers across partisan divides that are now saying, a, trump himself should be investigated, that sitting lawmakers should be investigated, 70 or higher. 70 saying congress should investigate allegations with trump. You never see a poll at 70 . Its a 66 33. A pollster did similar polling after last years election, i recommend that you look at this polling. Because the jumps have been twrem in a years time. Quickly on gillibrand, what the heck . Well, when i saw the dweet i thought to myself, if i being an oversensitive feminist here . I think that maybe the president is calling a sitting senator a prostitute . You texted me that. I did. Am i just being thin skinned . You know, its the kind of thing that is unbelievable. But also in the category of things that are unbelievable this year, it sort of is right on the nose. And sort of central to who he is. Central to who he is. Also central to the kinds of power abuses that are at stake in the conversations about harassment to begin with. The sexualizing, demeaning, and degrading women. Even without touching them. He sexually harassed her in front of the country amid a National Conversation on Sexual Harassment. Great to have you here. Thank you. Coverage continue in the Alabama Senate race. Steve kornackis got new information about which way the election is headed. Joining me to breakdown the latest batch of exit poll data and precincts reporting, hot off the presses, msnbc National Correspondent Steve Kornacki. Its skeletal, sketchy, its early, 25,000 votes. Jones out to the early lead. It depends where its coming from. You cant read much into that. We want to look at the particular areas of the state. Let me dive into one county in a second. Very quickly again the bottom line strategy if youre jones is, youre looking for a huge number out of birmingham. We only have one precinct in in jefferson county. Youre looking to win in the huntsville metro area. Youre looking to win in mobile, looking to eat into the republican suburban base around here. Thats sort of the path that jones is cutting. From moores standpoint, what you want is you want giant numbers out of the rural areas. Heres where it gets a little interesting. We have one county where weve got about half the vote in right now. Otherwise were looking at scattered precincts. In the northern part of the state here, its limestone county, right here on the border. This is interesting. Because when donald trump ran last year in 2016, donald trump got 72 of the vote in this county. When roy moore ran for chief justice and nearly lost five years ago, in 2012, he got 62 in this county. What is it looking like right now . Roy moore running basically at the level even now. Well see. Its half the vote in, aboutt 40 . The question in Rural Counties for moore was, can he improve on what he did in 2012 when he nearly lost . Because trump, this is the part of the state, when youre basically looking north of birmingham and take out huntsville, every other county here, trump basically improved significantly. It was his best improvement over mitt romney in 2012. So if you think the trumpification of politics, the polarization that comes with that, might boost moore, you want moore if youre his campaign to be running better than he did in 12. Thats the level you want to see in that county if youre jones. We should note he did win that, he won that race, that state Supreme Court race, eke the it out by i think 3 points. But also Interesting Data there, one of the questions i think a lot of people have been asking is, what about writeins . There was talk of a writein. Richard shelby goes on the sunday shows to say he wrote in the name of a prominent republican yor youve got this idea, im going to write someone in. At the same time its hard to imagine people get in the car, driving to a polling location, and writing in someone. That indicates around 2 , not an enormous effect at this point. You had one candidate who kind of emerged named lee buzzby, from what i can tell that boom lasted about six hours, he didnt seem to make much of a splash. A lot of people felt, if youre going to go to the trouble of voting in this election, Everybody Knows the stakes, Everybody Knows whats on the line, what the story is, that means you have a preference for who wins or loses. To put the writein vote, doesnt seem like many people are interested in that. Limestone county, from what youve said, is that if youre the jones folks you look at them and say, they havent put us out yet. Roy moore is not running away with this race at 8 47 and the dominos are going to start to fall. Is that fair . Yeah, no, again, its basically two games for jones. Its hold your own in rural areas. Right. Relative to how clinton did against trump last year. And right now, again, its limited in scattered evidence. Weve got to see when these big counties come in. You look at the one county where we have the most vote if youre jones, thats what you want to see coming out of that county. Thats very useful, Steve Kornacki, thank you. From a doug jones event, National Political correspondent for the Washington Post, gadston is the hometown of roy moore, the place he somewhat infamously according to reports was banned from the mall, what are you hearing there . The first precinct in the county, which we need to findwhen where it was, landslide for jones. This is an area where democrats organized very well, they knew some of the victims personally, some of the accusers i this say, in the moore situation. At this party they were telling me they really had not had a race that did not see their party in decline, losing members, seeing people switch, in decades. So this was a galvanizing event. When people were turning out at the polls they were the 50th person on election day for a president ial race they were at the 30th you put in so many miles covering races in this country. What has struck you being on the ground in alabama . Long signs dont vote. Ive learned that lesson the hard way. I dont think ive ever seen as many long signs for a candidate since the 201112 recall attempt against scott walker are. Every scott walker supporter wanted you to know he was a scott walker supporter. In this race everyone wanted that tote actual on their lawn saying they were backing doug jones, not roy moore. I was in counties where donald trump won by 50 points and i drive a block, look up the economic data, and id see five doug jones signs in a place that went strongly for trump that was very well educated, fairly wltsdy. It was hard to myth that. People who are voting for roy moore and even if you went to a deep rural area, you did not see the grassroots support that you saw for donald trump. But even for state senate candidates. All right, dave weigel whos got more frequent fliers than 9 11 in the business, thanks for joining us. Tonights nowin situation for the Republican Party, either lose a senate seat to a democrat or a man accused of child molestation is a republican in the u. S. Senate. Rick wilson, Jason Johnson join me next. Fake news will tell you we dont care for jews. One of our attorneys is a jew. [ applause ] we have very Close Friends that are jewish and rabbis and we fellowship with them. Kayla moore, wife of roy moore prepared remarks to prove her husband does not hate jews and the man behind her, the man republicans will have to deal with in 2018, a senator from alabama who stands accused of child molestation and defines the rule of law if he is able to win tonight. Even though it remains to be seen how Establishment Republicans will deal with roy moore, 61 of americans want the senate to expel roy moore if he wins and 45 of republicans agree. Jason johnson political analyst, professor at morgan state university. Rick, let me start with it appears to be from very early but basically until the dead heatish range, too early to call, is the official ch characterization benchmarks being hit. Lets start with the if moore wins scenario. One thing that occurred to me when i saw the 61 polling number, donald trump is a certain kind of charisma that roy moore doesnt have, and roy moore strikes me as a pretty c toxic figure and regional intense figure for National Republicans to have to carry around. What do you think of that . I completely agree. Hes a guy whose been an edge case in alabama, the reddest state in the country. Roy moore is always under performed even people like mitt romney in statewide races in alabama. So the specificity of roy moores particular political flavor is not something that you can scale beyond nonmetro regions of alabama. That may still be enough to pull him over the finish line tonight but the toxicity of roy moores brand, the fact that lets not forget roy moore likes is actually attracted to teenage girls, that will stick with him. That will be a problem. If the democrats are disciplined and smart about it, they will turn that, the fact that hes going to get seated in the u. S. Senate and that for all the brave talk, i believe that the caucus will do nothing. They will launch an ethics investigation and nothing will happen. You know, thats going to be something if the democrats were smart, they would hang moore around our necks and if roy moore is smart, he will, he will play his little game with steve bannon and make himself into a star of the new right and poison or destroy the republican brand. Hes got every incentive to perform quite a bit. You know, one of the things that happens in a race like this is a reminder what the racial politics of the south look like and how intense they are and how hard how sort of racial and partisan lines have lined up, and what it brings you to, it seems to me is that if, you know, if roy moore is your nominee, you can send him to the u. S. Senate because of how that structure works. Right, we just saw this in atlanta. People will cross party for race all the time, and so roy moore is somebody who is going to benefit from the fact that not only have democrats not broken over 40 in the state, you know, running statewide in 20 years but the fact you have a tremendous amount of voter id, voter accesuppression and reporn twitter areas primarily black voter areas have fewer voting machines. All the Structural Dynamics come into play. Its the case there are 300 more per precincts in alabama than white presents. Yes, yes, and, you know, with fewer and fewer machines, that being said, what is interesting is what ive been reading is there is a lot more effort in the race because people believe there is a chance here, the naacp is making more phone calls than 2016. They figured they were a lost cause in 2016. The naacp spent more money putting people on the ground. You could see a change. I dont necessarily think it will lead to him not winning. There is a question about the 30 number. Thats a number that not a lot of people were banding together. Rick, lets go to the flip side. I mean, i remember i was in washington d. C. Covering the news the morning after scott brown won and i remember walking into this running into a democratic member of congress that looked like he was hit over the head. Glassy eye look of complete despair. What would it mean for the republicans if they woke up tomorrow to a doug jones win . Well, what it would mean is that they would have to furrow their brows and express deep concern or perhaps even worry significantly that donald trump was doing something to the Republican Party that wasnt as positive as they had hoped. They wont understand that the cancer thats eating them is steve bannon and donald trump. Its not something external. Its caused by those two people inside, you know, chewing their way through the carcass of the gop and they dont care about the damage. Trump and bannon dont care about the damage people have to patch up if doug jones wins tomorrow. It should be a shock. It wont be a shock. Theres a delusional bubble around trump that is poisoned their ability to really think their way out of the problem. Here is the other problem, you know, if roy moore wins, then you have to deal with roy moore and if you look at everything in his sure. The way hes talked to people and deals with republicans in the state. The way he deals with Supreme Court judicial colleagues that hated him. Kicked off twice. You say how much everybody dislikes ted cruz because hes a know it all. It will be worse. Hell be lecturing people and not going to be a reliable vote. I dont see how this is a win for republicans on any level. There is really this question to rick to your point about were seeing the same dynamics that made donald trump the president of the United States by first making him the Republican Party nominee at play in this race in alabama and the open question tonight is whether this is the bridge too far. Even the Republican Voters of alabama, donald trump won by 30 points cannot bring themselves to send roy moore to the United States senate. Rick wilson and Jason Johnson, thank you for joining us. That is all in for this evening. The Rachel Maddow show starts now. This is a fun day to be in the jobs we have. Fascinating, one of the most fascinating races. So many things to watch and monitor and Pay Attention to and contention and one of the days im super grateful to be here. Me, too. Thanks to all of you at home for joining us this hour on this very exciting, very consequential news night. Its going to be very consequential either way and we have no idea how its going to go at this point. It is now 9 00 p. M. Eastern time, which means 8 00 p. M. Central, which means poll haves been closed in the great state of alabama for one hour. I ,