See how that works . Morning joe, Chuck Schumer was unimpressed. They are compromise because they are not eliminating it but delaying. Were compromising, instead of chopping off one arm, well chop off both arms. Arent we great. All eyes on Speaker Boehner. In two hours they will reconvene, once again strip out obama care language and send boehner another clean spending bill. The man with the greatest power to avoid a Government Shutdown by putting a clean cr on the floor and letting it pass also has the most to lose by doing so. This morning the beleaguered speaker took to the floor to urge the senate to pass the house bill. The American People are worried about their job. They are worried about their incomes rising because they are all under pressure. Worried about losing your job, feeling under pressure. Sound like anybody you know . Joining me today, politics editor at Business Insider josh barrow, executive editor at msnbc. Com richard wolffe, and also joining us is nbc capitol hill correspondent luke russert. Luke, this feels like were all sort of getting a peek inside an insane asylum. Seems simple. John boehner could walk out, put a clean cr on the floor and it will pass. What is the likelihood he will simply do that . Its an interesting question, joy. As of right now, i would say unlikely today from where we stand. I will give you the three options boehner has now, the thinking. The house has a meeting at 2 00 p. M. Today. They are going to discuss what their next move is going to be. Here are the three options. Number one, once the senate kills the house bill and sent back over here attach some other conservative goody that goes after the health care law. This case something similar to the bitter amendment, strip government payins to employees on the hill for Health Care Access and Health Care Premium payments. If you do that, the thinking on the republican side is they can say, look, harry reid is trying to save his own health care ahead of that of the American People. So thats the one thing we can see. However, if you do that, you push more towards shutdown because of the timing and how everything works up here. Number two, boehner could possibly have a twoor threeweek continuing resolution, not all the way to december which would mix this into the debt limit which he could argue strengthens the gop hand, put it all on the debt limit, a place we have a stronger position. Brace for shutdown, he lets the cruz caucus as i call it of his House Republican caucus feel the effects, lose the pr and comes back and passes a temporary two or three weeks or do a clean one. From where we stand right now, its unlikely boehner would go to the floor with a clean cr. They only need 17, 20 republicans. From my conversation with members and unofficial whip count, i believe they could get that. Theres enough moderates, charlie dent, king, nunez from california who would be more than willing to move on this issue. But they adopt want to give up this fight quite yet. After the 2 00 p. M. Meeting, i suspect well hear about something new related to the president S Health Care law they are going to send back over to the senate and put it back on harry reid again. Playing hot potatoes. Grand context, its absolutely fascinating, yesterday, the day before this horrific shutdown on the horizon, not one meeting between boehner, reed, president obama. Democrats are really, really, really not going to throw boehner a life raft this time saying you want to shut it down. Its the west wing episode, shut it down. Go right ahead. They are playing hardball. Richard wolffe, go ahead and make my day. Thats what were hearing from democrats is what luke is saying. The options, throw your staff under the bus. Basically slash the staffs pay, throwing them in the exchanges. Detonate it, put a nuclear bomb marrying these two together. Or let a shutdown happen thinking the same republicans that didnt learn from our Credit Rating being downgraded will think after a few weeks of regular people feeling pain, oh, this isnt good. Luke is a good reporter and all three options are real. What happens if all three happen. You send up ridiculous talking point. Youre not opposing people anymore. Youre opposing for talking point purposes. They do that and they have something that kicks it into the debt ceiling and on top of that they shut down the government. So all three could actually all happen. Were at this point where republicans this isnt, by the way, the Tea Party Caucus. The Tea Party Caucus is too small to do this. Its the fear of the Tea Party Caucus. We dont even have a body the majority could get this through if they wanted. Not just the moderates. They are so scared of their own shadow and shadow of the tea party they are going down this ridiculous path which shows honestly they dont have strategy. Its a bunch of shortterm tactics that dont last 12 hours anymore. Calls him the suicide caulk, not even Tea Party Caucus. Let me give you a quick bite of what he has to say. 80 house members. The suicide caucus members, we can show a map of where they live, suicide caucus members live in places where National Election results seem like an anomaly. Obama defeated romney 4 points nationally. 80 suicide districts obama lost by an average of 23 points. Those 80 members represent an america where the population is getting whiter, there are few major cities, where obama lost the last election on a landslide and Republican Party more dominant and more popular. If you look physically where the suicide caucus members are, look at that map, these are the people in the south, great northwest, they are in red, red america where this actually seems rational. Right. I think, you know, one great quote we heard from an anonymous republican staffer, by the way the anonymous republican staffer is the star of this. They stand to lose their health care under the bitter plan. They understand what they are doing is nuts, nuts for the country, nuts for the Republican Party, i assume they are drinking a lot this week. I would be if i were up there. One of these quotes House Republicans are going to have to touch the stove a little longer to figure out they are going to get burned. These 80 people probably arent going to feel burned but 280 people in the House Republican caucus, a majority of whom wanted to use a strategy similar to the one john boehner originally had where you would have another symbolic vote to defund obama care, allow them to stay funded allow implementation to continue and only grandstand on the issue. I think thats where republicans are trying to end up here. The question is how many days of shutdown it will take to convince the Republican Caucus that this thing has been a destructive misadventure for the party. My guess is the shutdown will run a week. They will figure it out then pt republicans learned a lesson from 2011. Remember we raised the debt ceiling in january. Republicans in december were talking a game about more concessions, budget cuts. Ultimately the january debt ceiling increase was essentially a clean increase. The only thing republicans got was that Senate Democrats had to pass a totally symbolic budget, which is really not much of a concession at all. I think House Republicans are able to see reason on this stuff as they did in january. The question is how much Government Shutdown it will take. Shng has changed since then. Whats that . Ted cruz. 2016 that changed it. You can see this again with the anonymous house staffer. They understand how ted cruz has changed the National Dynamic for primaries. And hurt the party in terms of the image of the party being rational and sane. The other thing ted cruz doesnt answer to those people youre talking about. I want to go back to luke. Is josh cret there are republicans that see reason, like josh said, a week or two of shutdown, which, by the way, real people will be hurt. A week or two, a majority of republicans say enough already. Enough ted cruz. Were just going to go ahead and pass a clean cr. Yes, i believe that. If youre talking about a clean cr, they could do that in an hour if they wanted to, joy. Thats not the issue here. The issue here is the gop leadership once again is very worried about alienating this particular wing. The folks i call the coal caucus, 85 voted for fiscal cliff dealing, of those 85 or so, 75 are still around here. If you went and talked to them priva privately, they would say this is a dumb thing going forward, not worth it. I suspect that group of House Republicans would support a clean cr. As richard just mentioned, these guys arent calling the shots. Ted cruz, heritage action, Senate Conservative fund is calling the shots, club for growth is calling the shots. 94 members that come from romneys 60 plus distribution they dont want to be they are willing to go along with this idea that has been born out of this 30 or so guys in the House Republican caucus that even a few years ago were laughed out of the room by establishment votes. Youre seeing the fight for the house gop. They are now taking the country into this fight. All the folks in the dmv area, largest concentration of federal workers, a lot of folks hurt by a possible shutdown. But you kind of sit here dumbfounded and say why doesnt someone rise up, go with a clean cr . They are fearful of all the energy in their party, going against them come 2014, come 2016. Its not something they want to engage in right now. Its absolutely fascinating. Richard, isnt that the point . The real thing is not so much the rise of ted cruz but the rise of jim demint these outside funders can Trump Chamber of commerce, old wall street guys who used to be able to push them or muscle them around on capitol hill. They are responding to a stream of outside money that they are afraid could make them lose their jobs. We havent seen the Business Community step up. The gop leadership is afraid of this caucus. Having a fearful leadership is not actually leadership. The truth is when the white house is using the language of hostage takers. They have to understand gop leaders themselves are a hostage. Hostage takers are hostages themselves and thats a lack of leadership all the way around. Josh, the other issue is youre not seeing republicans fighting on the ground of we want more austerity or something to do with the budget. Look at the list of demands when you move to the debt limit. Talking about delay health care law, undo greenhouse gas, keystone pipeline, eliminate social service grants, eliminate dodd frank financial reform. Now this is basically things they couldnt win in an election. They want to stuff them into a fight thats supposed to be about the economy and budget. I think they are doing this for two reasons. One, republicans have gotten fiscal austerity over the last few years including big cuts from sequestration we thought nobody wanted a few years ago. If you want more budget cuts you start having to cut programs republicans dont want to go on the record they want to cut. No cpi and Social Security. They dont want to go back to their districts and say were demanding a cut in Social Security benefits. Have you to come up with other sweeteners to explain to conservative republicans why they should vote for an increase in the debt limit. The other thing is this need to do the kitchen sink, House Republicans dont want to vote for a debt limit increase. One who might not be swayed by fiscal austerity, you say, hey, you hate dodd frank . Well weaken dodd frank because of this. Its desperate gambit. Republicans dont have a vote for debt limit increase with this laundry list attached to it. Thats why house leadership floated the plan. They never actually put out a bill. They didnt think they could get to 218 even with this insane list of demands. This is insane. The only thing not in there and well see it again is deport president obama. Thats not on the list yet and i guess we should be thankful. Luke russert, thank you very much. Midnight is not only the Witching Hour for Government Shutdown, marks a rollout for obama care. Well preview crucial and busy october 1st when the white houses Jennifer Palmieri joins us next on now. My customers can shop around see who does good work and compare costs. It doesnt usually work that way with health care. But with unitedhealthcare, i get information on quality rated doctors, Treatment Options and estimates for how much ill pay. That helps me, and my guys, make better decisions. I dont like guesses with my business, and definitely not with our health. Innovations that work for you. Thats health in numbers. Unitedhealthcare. Cheryl burke is chachaing in depend silhouette briefs for charity, to prove that with soft fabric and waistband, the best protection looks, fits, and feels just like underwear. Get a free sample and try for yourself. Wout of landfills each year . Plastic waste to cover mt. Rainier by using one less trash bag each month, we can. And glad forceflex bags stretch until theyre full. So you can take them out less often. One more time, just for themselves. Before the last grandchild. Before the first grandchild. Smile. Before katie, debbie, kevin and brad. There was a connection that started it all and made the future the wonderful thing it turned out to be. At bank of america, we know were not the center of your life, but well do our best to help you connect to what is. As the two chambers of commerce fight to the finish over budget negotiations over the next 12 hours, the white house is preparing for a shutdown. Yesterday former president bill clinton, who was president during the last Government Shutdown 17 years ago had some words of advice and praise for president obama. The president has to take the position hes taken, which is you, not me, you voted to spend this money. America is one of maybe the only country in the world that requires two votes to spend money. First they vote to spend the money. Then they have to vote again to issue the bonds to in effect borrow the money from the American People to cover the spending they have already voted for. You cant negotiate over that, and i think hes right not to. Can you remember a time in your lifetime when a Major Political party was just sitting around begging for america to fail . I dont know whats going to happen. Joining us now is White House Communications director Jennifer Palmieri. Jennifer, thanks so much to be here. Happy to be here, joy. Im interested in the substance. On the substantive side there have not been negotiations directly between the president and Speaker Boehner and the counterparts in the senate. On a tactical level, is the white house deciding they are not going to talk to them, period, but on the optics they dont even want to be seen to be negotiating with the republicans . The substance of the matter is that there really is not that much to negotiate around. People should remember that what were actually talking about is just a twomonth a bill that will fund the government for two months and do so at the level it is currently doing. This is not as if other times weve encountered dramatic showdowns its been around the fiscal cliff we did earlier this year, trying to save middle class tax cuts. At another point we were trying to put together a big deficit reduction package. But really, keep in mind, all were doing here is a twomonth continuing resolution at current levels. Theres really not that much to negotiate on. Its clear that, you know, a lot of House Republicans have said if you put took a clean bill like that and put it on the house floor, it would pass with 218 votes and thats what we should do. Its not as if were not willing to negotiate and talk about broader fiscal issues. We have and wanted to do that for a long time. Theres not that much to negotiate around. Were just talking about two months of the current levels and not willing to pay some sort of toll or have the republicans extract a price for doing their job. Jennifer, i think its an important point people forget. This is literally twomonth funding of the government. Normally sometimes you dont take a vote on this. It would pass by sometimes votes could pass by voice vote. This is not a year long thing. This is two months to keep us going while we try to work out a broader deal. We would like to deal with the sequester, for example. Thats why were not willing to this is why we certainly arent willing to accept anything that would defund or delay health care, but why the congress should pass a clean bill. Jennifer, is also the reason for not wanting to negotiate paved on this twomonth cr, not wanting to set a precedent. We read things about being concerned about precedent, not just himself but future president s, every time the congress has to look at funding the government, whether two months or two years there has to be a price extracted from the white house. Well, we think that particularly if you bring the debt limit into this, very concerned about precedent for a president having to accept to accept some sort of People Holding us hostage to passing what has been heretofore Standard Practice for the congress. So it is its you know, were happy to negotiate around a broad budget and fiscal issues and thats the relationship of congress and what the president wants to do. We do feel we cant get into a situation where congress thinks they can extract some sort of concession from the president that is politically motivated just to fund the government at these small intervals. Certainly to do that to not be able to do that when they are facing the debt limit. Can you walk us through, jennifer, the practical steps taken by the white house . What are you guys doing to prepare for a shutdown, should it occur. The irony, what the House Republicans are trying to do, is fund obama care. The irony is most of the work today is getting prepared for launch of enrollment under obama care which is happening tomorrow whether the government shuts down or not. So we are so were working mostly on that. In terms of dealing with the shutdown, it requires a lot of work from the office of management and budget and working with our agencies to make sure that happens as orderly as possible. But were still we are still pushing that the house we all shouldnt accept this as a fait accompli this is happening. The house could easily pick back up with what they send over to them and pass a clean continuing resolution for two months and more time to talk about these larger issues then. Jennifer, you mentioned the role out of the Affordable Care act that happens on the same day as the potential shutdown, ironically. Would a shutdown impact the rollout and peoples ability to sign up for insurance and exchanges and the rollout of the Affordable Care act. Not to get too technical but Affordable Care act is considered a mandatory program which means its not subject to the Funding Congress is considering right now. So it will still happen tomorrow, which means the website healthcare. Gov where people can go to sign up will be working. Our call centers will be working. It should have minimal impact on the rollout. Its a huge undertaking. This is a sixmoment long process were starting. Tomorrow is just the first day. We think probably the first few months of this project will be people learning about the different plans. You dont actually its not until january 1 you have the insurance available to you. So we think there will be a lot of window shopping for the first few months. But well be ready to go with that project tomorrow. So josh, the irony, of course, would be that we would shut down the government ostensibly because some objections to the Affordable Care act and would not impact the rollout of the Affordable Care act. That is pretty ironic. Its one of the reasons that this shutdown strategy is so weird from republicans. They are using the fight over discretionary spending, parts of the budget that have to be reauthorized by congress trying to hold hostage mandatory Spending Program that is not subject to negotiations. I guess the strategic idea is that the white house will be so bothered by a shutdown they will agree to give up on the Affordable Care act. It doesnt sound like its the white houses intention here. The idea you can force the president of the United States to somehow cancel or delay his signal achievement from his first term by shutting the government down when doing so wont even impact. It doesnt sound rational. It doesnt make sense. No. By the way, if you are concerned with debts and deficits, which republicans say they are but not talking about it because they are so obsessed with obama care. If you are concerned about debt and deficits you surely know shutting down the government actually costs us more money. Thats what the past shutdowns did. They are wasting money. They are wasting time. They are not lending credibility to their own arguments. It doesnt make sense. At the end of the day fiscal arguments are there. Thats the irony of this. We do have the deficit going down, which is a good thing. Republicans have given up on talking about what used to be their core issue or at least what they said was their core issue, debt and deficits, now ideological trophies. The debt and deficit picture is very different than how it was two years ago where we had a fight over the debt limit where the things was big debt. The fed debt is going to be stabilized about 70 to 75 of gdp over the next decade. Weve really fixed our growing debt problem. Now we have to find Something Else to argue over. Theoretically you could have budget deficits or surpluses that would cause that to decline then they would talk about programs they actually like. This is a part th party that doesnt want to run on broad reduction program. Is the white house concerned at all should the president shut down, the message the president has been spending, this is on the republicans, this is on john boehner, would be muddled in peoples pain. The pain they are feeling, they would essentially blame both parties including the president . Dysfunction is not good in washington for anyone that is involved. But we think theres a pretty big theres a couple of pretty big principles at stake here. One is protecting health care. Its also ironic they want to repeal health care on a funding bill because it reduces the deficit. For the first time tomorrow tens of millions of americans who didnt have health care is going to bible to afford it and thats what republicans are trying to take away. The second principle we discussed before, you cant allow its one thing to negotiate over funding levels and what our investments should be and tax reform policy but what were talking about here is a hostage taking where republicans are just trying to hold this funding bill hostage and shut down the government in order to extract concessions from the president that have nothing to do with the budge. Thats something we cant allow. Thank you so much White House Communications director Jennifer Palmieri. Thanks for having me. Coming up, house gop caucus may be fine with keeping hundreds of thousands of americans from getting pay and benefits but those same republicans are not okay with allowing women to have access to contraception. Well examine the socalled conscious clause next. [ male announcer ] maybe youve already heard what theyre saying about the nissan altima. And we have to admit, that its all true. But dont just take their word for it, check it out for yourself. The awardwinning nissan altima. Nissan. Innovation that excites. Now get a 179 per month lease on a 2013 nissan altima. Plays a key role throughout our lives. One a day mens 50 is a complete multivitamin designed for mens Health Concerns as we age. With 7 antioxidants to support cell health. One a day mens 50 . In an act of supreme legislative irony over the weekend the same House Republicans who are unnecessarily and without conscious forcing a Government Shutdown that would, among other things furlough up to a million federal employees without pay, shut down hundreds of national parks, and possibly delay any new disability benefit applications, those same republicans attach to their list of demands over the budget something called the conscious clause which would allow employers and insurers to deny coverage for womens Preventive Health care they object to like Birth Control. Never mind the fact the Affordable Care act explicitly provides contraceptive exceptions for places of worship and religiously affiliate nonprofits. That is not enough for House Republicans. They want any employer to deny Womens Health coverage because they dont think its moral. This morning democratic senator Barbara Boxer condemned the move. Here is the section they delayed. Guaranteed affordable Birth Control, screens for cervical cancer, screenings for sexually transmitted diseases or stds, screens for pregnancyrelated diabetes, screenings for domestic violence, breastfeeding counseling and supplies. Anyone, any of you, any of us who have ever lost a loved one knows the critical importance of these preventive services. To the base of the Republican Party and antiabortion movement, this move may sound like a show of strength. To most americans attaching Birth Control to the functioning of the u. S. Economy and the paychecks of hundreds of thousands of americans isnt a show of strength. Its an indication of just how unserious the Republican Party is about fiscal issues. The gops laundry list of lastminute demands over the budget raises questions of the most pressing question is this, at a time when your party is 12 hours away for being responsible for shutting down u. S. Government to the detriment of the poor children, the disabled and our military service members, is this really the time to be preaching about conscious . Coming up attorney general eric holder nouns a new lawsuit against another Southern State over its controversial voting law. Well get the details from nbcs Pete Williams next. Ready to run your lines . Okay, who helps you focus on your recovery . Yo, yo, yo. Aflac. Wow. [ under his breath ] that was horrible. Pays you cash when youre sick or hurt . [ japanese accent ] aflac. Love it. [ under his breath ] hate it. Helps you focus on getting back to normal . [ as a Southern Belle ] aflac. [ as a cowboy ] aflac. [ sassily ] aflac. Uh huh. [ under his breath ] i am so fired. Youre on in 5, duck. [ male announcer ] when youre sick or hurt, aflac pays you cash. Find out more at aflac. Com. [ male announcer ] when youre sick or hurt, aflac pays you cash. Dad dad katy perry is coming to town. Can we get tickets, tickets . Hmm, sure. How many . Well, theres hannah, maddie, jen, sara m. , sara b. , sa whoa, whoa. Hold on. under his breath here it comes. We cant forget about your older sister thank you, thank you, thank you seriously . What . I get 2x the thankyou points on each ticket. Can i come . Yep. The Citi Thankyou preferred card. Now earn 2x the points on entertainment and dining out, with no annual fee. To apply, go to citi. Com thankyoucards today a month and a half after the governor signed into law one of the strictest voter laws, attorney general eric holder announced. Provisions that will significantly reduce early voting day, eliminate same day registration during early voting and pose restrictive voter requirement for in person voting and also prohibit counting of otherwise legitimate provisional ballots. In challenging this law, the Justice Department will present racially discriminative effect based on changes and these are based on data. Joining us from washington nbc justice correspondent Pete Williams. Pete, can you walk us through the specific parts of the North Carolina law that are being challenged by the department of justice . As you heard the attorney general say, its a lot more about the photo id. First reduction of early voting. It cuts seven days off of the early voting period. What the government has claimed and what civil Rights Groups say in the lawsuits they have already filed against this is that early voting has been overwhelmingly used by africanamerican voters. Roughly 70 of the africanamerican vote in the last election in North Carolina was cast early as compared to 52 of the white vote. Thats a big part of this challenge. The second is same day Voter Registration and the third issue is what happens when you cast a ballot in the wrong place. If your polling place is moved, you go back to the place you always voted, you cast a ballot before the new law was passed, considered provisional, look at it, see whether it was an honest mistake. If so it would count. Now it cannot count. All that in addition to voter id requirement. This the second big challenge by the Justice Department to voter changes after the Supreme Court struck down the part of the Voting Rights act, first in texas, over redistricting there and voter id. This the first law to be challenged that was enacted after the Supreme Courts ruling in june that gutted the Voting Rights act. Theres a lot of significance here. One other point. You heard the attorney general say the Justice Department believes this will have the effect of being discriminatory but the lawsuit were told also claims North Carolina did this on purpose, the state fully intended to reduce minority turnout and make it harder for minorities to vote. All right. Nbcs Pete Williams, thank you. You bet. After the break, while some shrug off the potential impact of a Government Shutdown arenas around the country brace for what could be devastating circumstances. Well look at the vote when ezra klein joins us on now. Huh. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Mmmhmmm. Everybody knows that. Well, did you know that old macdonald was a really bad speller . Your word is. Cow. Cow. Cow. C. O. W. E. I. E. I. O. [buzzer] dangnabbit. Geico. Fifteen minutes could save you. Well, you know. If you have high cholesterol, heres some information that may be worth looking into. In a Clinical Trial versus lipitor, crestor got more highrisk patients bad cholesterol to a goal of under 100. Getting to goal is important, especially if you have high cholesterol plus any of these risk factors because you could be at increased risk for plaque buildup in your arteries over time. And thats why when diet and exercise alone arent enough to lower cholesterol i prescribe crestor. [ female announcer ] crestor is not right for everyone. Like people with Liver Disease or women who are nursing, pregnant or may become pregnant. Tell your doctor about other medicines youre taking. Call your doctor right away if you have muscle pain or weakness, feel unusually tired, have loss of appetite, upper belly pain, dark urine or yellowing of skin or eyes. These could be signs of rare but serious side effects. Is your cholesterol at goal . Ask your doctor about crestor. [ female announcer ] if you cant afford your medication, astrazeneca may be able to help. And youre not very proud of that. But tonight he made pizza. With johnsonville italian sausage. And everybody loved it. And youre definitely proud of that. Johnsonville. Served with pride since 1945. Less than 12 hours remain until the government shuts down. What exactly does a shutdown mean for early americans. According to the office of management and budget, more than 800,000 federal workers would be temporarily furloughed, thousands of Government Employees deemed essential have to continue to show up for work but for nothing more than an iou. The nations 1. 3 million active duty military personnel would remain on duty, however they would not be paid until Congress Passes the continuing budget resolution. Nasa, epa and department of commerce would essentially stop functioning. With the vast majority of their employees forced to stay home. The impacts could be even more devastating for the americans on the receiving end of government services. Nutrition assistance for women, infants and children would stop, government backed loans to Small Businesses would be suspended, head start grants would not be renewed. Many fear these consequences, awful though they are, are actually not the worst that could happen. Thats because they would pale in comparison to the larger risk posed by reaching the debt ceiling in the next few weeks. According to the wall street times, washington has yet to panic, waiting to see if the nation defaults on its credit. As ezra klein writes, a shutdown after all is just bad for the economy, a default is catastrophic for it. Joining the panel is msnbc. Com National Reporter as well as joining us from washington msnbc policy analyst Washington Post aforementioned ezra klein. Ezra, you, i think have been more optimistic than many, just in the sense you seem to believe should we have a shutdown, this will teach republican base, house caucus, a lesson they will not want to repeat when it comes to the debt ceiling. Do you still believe that today . People are getting it wrong. I start in so much deeper a whole of pes michls than everybody that my writing appears i believe defaulting on the debt, i dont believe its zero percent possibility, 5 , i think its 10, 20, could really happen. If it raise happens, i think consequences are unimaginably bad. If they went on for any length of time, youre dealing with financial crisis, it could be on the order of what we saw in 2008. The argument of a shut down, which, again, in any normal world we should not happen, but the argument for a shutdown is if we can play out this highstakes drama in a visible way where theres a public backlash that scares republicans and brings in wall street, brings in business, convinces people things are going on in washington and they need pressure to make it stop growing. That lowers the risk. I dont think the shutdown would be a great thing. Im not sure it will stop us from doing something worse later. What i do think is if republicans decide, as john boehner is telling them to decide, to not fight on the shutdown in order to fight on the debt ceiling, that increases the likelihood of a debt ceiling breach and that is a worse outcome. On the list of things i mentioned, cutting aid to women in infants and children, cutting head start, the only thing on that list that struck me as being potentially able to change the minds of the base of the Republican Party about what they are doing is the cuts to military pay. Is there any chance that seeing that happen, actually seeing cuts to members of the active duty military, not getting their paycheck, could that convince the house caucus to change its mind . Of course they are exempting military pay. At this point they are going to write their fantasy list and thats what were going to end up. I cant imagine a scenario in which military pay would not end up in that. I think about ted cruz, concern for single mothers, talk about wick funding, such a phony concern expressed by him. Im curious for ezra, you make it sound like theres a rationality, we can have a little bit of blood letting then save the patient if they get it out of their system first time around and they wont take us all the way to brink on the debt ceiling. Do you think they have had their fill, the backlash, they will see reason . I think its worth remembering. They didnt shut down the government in 2011, although they thought about it. Didnt breach the debt ceiling in 2011, 2013 though they thought about doing it of these are not folks that are complete lunatics, at least not all of them. The important thing to remember is that right now, this very second, there are votes in the house and senate to keep the government open and raise the debt ceiling. If boehner would open it up to democratic votes, they would all vote for it. You have a situation where what is going on, the political pressure is not sufficient enough to make vocal members of the tea party. They havent felt like they had to fight yet. In general when they feel like they have to fight they back down. See that on fiscal cliff. I dont believe in the model Republican Party where they dont fold, somehow immune to political pressure. I think they are overall reckless and underconvinced by what the government actually does and what it would mean to shut it down or breach the debt ceiling. Ultimately they do respond to public pressure. One thing making this particular series dangerous is the public has kind of become used to it. They have begun to say they are just fighting. They end of the day they will figure it out. That public pressure, at the end of the day they will not figure it out. Josh, thats what i worry about, too. This is becoming a pattern. Essentially what republicans are learning, this is the new normal. This is the way to do business in washington. The pattern seems to end with them not defaulting on the debt. Weve been through this before. House republicans arent crazy either. They are people that respond to incentives. This is not the way to run a stable democracy, we cant careen crisis to crisis because at the end of the day we dont actually blow up the government we can carry the bomb in and hold the detonator switch its not a good way but italians have been that sort of thing. The government in italy looks like its going to fall again. Italy is in a lot of economic trouble but its a first world country that is wonderful in many ways. If were becoming like the italians its not the biggest crisis. Everyone watching now if were going to become italy, berlusconi, i mean the vacation spot is wonderful but the government is not something we think do we really want that sort of system where its literally. No. We also have to come to a scenario where, yes, a clean cr can pass the house only if boehner wants to imperil his speakership. How do we get to that scenario, boehner breaks the hastert rule. We agree theres no parties involved. Washington post ezra klein, thank you so much. After the break, she may be texass first lady but anita perry isnt always on the same policy page as her husband rick perry. Well discuss her declaration of independence next. Texas first Lady Anita Perry is joining the long list of republican women who disagree with their husband on Womens Health. Asked about abortion rights at the texas tribute festival saturday, the texas first lady had this to say purchase thats really difficult for me, evan. I see it as a womans right. If they want to do that, that is their decision. They have to live with that decision. So we had laura bush who stood out from her husband on issues, barbara bush expressed her prochoice leanings, Condoleezza Rice and diane cantor. Why is it these republican wives are going their own way in something publicly. Theres no accounting for love, joy. Certainly there are quote, unquote, prolife women who are believers. I do believe in the case of perry shes a nurse, daughter of a physical, certain level of practicality. For her to even say abortion is a womens issue. Its a life issue is what youre supposed to call it. Absolutely. Youre doing this a the a time when you have wendy davis running for governor to secede her husband, a lawsuit going on. Shes saying it as a politically charged time. The eyes are on the texas, eyes of the world on texas this past summer as her husband forced through these unconstitutional restrictions on abortion that are designed to shut down clinics, make it inaccessible whether abortion care, other care, now going to court to defend that. Her husband staked his entire social issue reputation on denying women health care. This is certainly very poignant to see her express herself this way. Josh, im always interested, fascinated by the Republican Party and what its going through, this seems to be another one. They are fighting to increase their popularity among women but constantly having reminder that their position really is antithetical in some cases even to republican women. Depends on which decision. Abortion is decide from other social issues. The polling hasnt been moving. There isnt an age gap on it. People who are under 30 are equally as likely to be under abortion as people over 65. Some of the abortion restrictions that republicans favor like bans on late term abortion are quite popular. The problem is when republicans talk about abortion they tend to do things like todd aiken and Richard Murdoch in such a way that cant relate to women at all or other restrictions that are broadly unpopular. Theres certain amount of triumphal issues from the left, warranted on some. Trends on gay marriage are very clear. Its clear theres going to be vast popularity for it. Supporters of abortion rights are lucky republicans have fumbled the issue so badly. They figured how to message it better they would have more like getting abortion restrictions. They have overreached on it. The 20week bans may be narrowly popular but they attached it to all these restrictions that were going to shut down clinics. Rick perry went to bat on shutting down Womens Health program in texas. Its not so much even that the left has gotten lucky, its they are also going after Birth Control, abortion and Birth Control and clinics all together. Maybe if they were more narrowly focused, they could focus on issues really divided on that would hurt for them but they havent stopped there. I want to bring in, we have movement on issues. The president is going to speak with congressional leaders today. He also made a statement that the u. S. Is the reserve currency of the world. We dont mess with that. A little bit of movement, a little sanity out of the white house. Hopefully it will be catching on capitol hill. Thank you to josh, richard for being here. Thats all for now. Alex returns tomorrow shell be joined by mark halperin, sam stein, chris matthews. Be sure to catch alex tonight two hours before the clock strikes midnight when she guest hosts the last word at 10 00 p. M. Eastern. Andrea mitchell reports is next. Er fever. You raise her spirits. We tackled your shoulder pain. You make him rookie of the year. We took care of your cold symptoms. You take him on an adventure. Tylenol® has been the number 1 doctor recommended brand of pain reliever for over 20 years. But for everything we do, we know you do so much more. Tylenol®. Thats a good thing, but it doesnt cover everything. Only about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. So consider an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. 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Make it delicious with swanson. [ woman 1 ] thats why i cook. Right now on Andrea Mitchell reports, the midnight hour, 11 hours to go before a Government Shutdown. No sign of a deal. The blame game