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This is Josh Barro and welcome to left right and center you're civilized to provide half an hour to the self-contained opinion polls that dominate political debate it is Thanksgiving week and we are thankful to present you this special episode of left right and center zooming out to examine some of the broad political trends that are shaping the 2020 election and beyond on today's show daven Phoenix from u.c. Irvine will join me to talk about the anger gap we'll discuss why anger is such an effective emotion for motivating political action and why whites in America are more easily able to use it at than blacks We'll also talk about how the anger gap is shaping the 2020 race and why Joe Biden's optimistic message is the draw a mockery in the progressive commentary of our so far connecting with black voters later I'll be joined by 2 top national political reporter would alter from Time magazine and instead Herndon from the New York Times they'll tell me about Elizabeth Warren's courting of black progressive activists and her strategy to build the diverse coalition that would make it possible for her to win the Democratic nomination we will also talk about the tension of Iowa New Hampshire 2 very white states in the nominating race in an increasingly diverse political party but 1st here's my conversation with Laura Putnam history professor at the University of Pittsburgh law rights on the rise of resistance groups in the wake of the 2016 election and the increased political activation of college educated middle aged suburban women they're changing political behavior change the political map in the 20000 midterms helping Democrats clip many suburban districts where Republicans have long held majorities we talked about why that happened and what it means for the upcoming election Hi Laura Hi there so actually I want to start with an article for democracy journal that you coauthored nearly 2 years ago now with feed a Scotch poll sociologist at Harvard the articles about the changing political behavior of college educated suburban women and how their ramped up activism was reshaping the Democratic Party you opened that article by saying that political news coverage sort of focuses excessively on. Progressive activism that tends to center in cities and on Donald Trump's success with whites in declining rural areas and underemphasized suburbs where half the country lives and where local activist groups mostly led by women have been the most prominent force in Democratic politics so before we look ahead to 2020 can you talk some about how that ended up speaking out and 28 team did that activism feed into the big Democratic wins we saw in the rink irrational district Absolutely I mean if you count up indicators of where the grassroots groups that were formed were strongest or sort of densest on the ground there's every indication that it was precisely at not at either end of the political spectrum it wasn't at the the just in the districts congressional districts where Hillary Clinton did best and it was an elite congressional district where Hillary Clinton did worse it was precisely in the middle in the places where the Clinton Trump vote in 2016 was most narrowly balanced and those were exactly the congressional districts that in place after place we saw those those same individual system grassroots organizers recruit candidates power forward fundraise not doors and congressional seats from Republicans to Democrats in 2018 so why why there and why these specific demographic groups I mean why did college educated suburban women become such an important activist force in the Democratic Party coalition. So I think what's most important there is that college educated suburban women step forward and change their level of activism so I don't want to dismiss the importance of other kinds of ongoing activism with in urban areas or among frontline communities among communities of color. But there wasn't the kind of change in that those activist groups have been there have been doing the work calling for change for some time it was really in the suburbs especially among people who were likely Hillary Clinton supporters relatively you know somewhere in the center to left spectrum their own political beliefs but hadn't been engaged in electoral politics that's where we saw the change and of course that's what changes political equation to not just people still doing the same pushing that they have been doing but when there's a radical shift a month demographic group so what sort of role have these activists in the groups that they found what what how are they influencing the 2020 Democratic presidential primary I think the groups themselves in case after case are actually scrupulously staying out of the primary in any collective sense so and there's been some you know interesting reporting differences of opinion I would say between the indivisible national leaders for instance who have been interested in the kinds of pressure that group that activist groups can bring to bear through endorsements for instance and a lot of pushback from local leaders of grassroots groups whether there are groups that are sort of associated with indivisible or others who really have seen how divisive the endorsement process can be and who are really focused on building the broadest tent possible. So when you talk about I mean institutionally these groups are saying staying neutral but if they consist of individuals who I assume have preferences in this primary and one thing I mean you mention obviously that this is a group this is a demographic group that has greatly changed its engagement you have a lot of longstanding activism especially in minority communities and so when when this group has sort of become more influential presumably for its greater activism it looks demographically quite a bit different from the Democratic Party coalition Democratic Party primary electorate as a whole right I mean that we're not talking about entirely white people but we're talking about a disproportionately white group of activists a disproportionately educated group of activists so I mean I would think one concern the one might raise would be that you know that this is this is a group that's going to sort of aligned toward different candidates in this primary then then the Democratic primary electorate as a whole is that something that that these activists are cognizant of trying to adjust for. I think they are aware that they're much more self-aware and much more aware of the range of views surrounding them then many people who let's say the folks who put the same amount of hours into politics but do it through obsessive looking at Facebook feeds or Twitter feeds are much less to the actual views of real life boaters out there than folks who spent literally 20 hours a week for the last the last 2 electoral cycles and not just the congressional cycle and 22 but also working on. Local and county and municipal level elections in 27021000 these are folks who have conversation with voters who aren't like them all the time and as a result they are the most pragmatic passionate political volunteers that you will meet so while they make their own views started out being generally in the sort of center to left and if anything in their own views had lately more to the left over the course of being very engaged in politics they're also deeply aware of how unusual those whose are among the wide spectrum of different you know ways of experience experience in politics that they see all around them you know real human beings. Probably you know not not you or me or maybe even with all due respect you know most folks are listening to this to this podcast may be unusually engaged in thinking about politics and thinking about political parties compared to the broad American electorate most people in this country my impression is when you have enough conversations people have a clear sense of whether they're a cat person an adult or dog person and why then they could articulate for you why they would want to be a Democrat or want to be a Republican and you know that's a completely rational way to feel you know having knocked a bunch of doors myself you come to see that as an absolutely reasonable way for to experience the world. So would you say then that there's a sort of idea out there in the media that as this primary has shaped up that there's pressure from an ideologically pure activist base moving the party to the left and moving candidates to to take litmus test positions on a variety of issues you don't see that as coming from the activist base you're actually seeing on the ground. I don't see that as coming from the post 16 grassroots activist base so and that's part of what you're pointing to is that there are multiple different activist bases within the Democratic Party which is you know in the long run all to the good but it is a problem when some people who want certain voices and assume that those of Representatives representative of the full range of hands on face to face all injuries out there when there's actually a wide variety of political views and experiences and perspectives among the actual existing door knocking activist base Can you talk a little bit about the role that the grassroots organizing activist base is likely to play in a general election this year obviously the that that that base will no longer be neutral by the time that we're in a general election you written about some difficulty that the Democratic Party has had in the past sort of maintaining this activism from election cycle to election cycle in ways that the Democratic Party apparatus has sometimes sort of negatively gotten itself involved in a way that has turned off some people are they are they doing well at fostering these groups and letting them grow and be independent in the ways that that makes them so sustaining in general there's a wide range of experience out there their their communities within which grassroots groups have been able to work really smoothly with the local Democratic Party ironically that's often in some of the in the most you know rural areas which are which you know which voted heavily as a whole for Donald Trump and which are not going to be flipping back in a major way off in those places the you know the local Democratic committee either had come to not even exist as a party committee and how now has been completely repopulated by new post 16 grassroots on. Interiors or the local Democratic committee was made up of a few lonely stalwart souls who are really excited to welcome in the new energy the place where the relationship between the new grass roots and the local Democratic Party has been more conflictive on the one hand in big city areas where the local Democratic machine. Has been very focused on maintaining control of endorsements and you know you're functioning in a in a picture niche way with real material goods at stake and maybe has not been responsive to. A wide array of voices actually to the left of the local Democratic Party machine in those places in conflicts whether that's happening in you know that same story in one way or another has played out in New York City it's played out in Queens it's played out in Philadelphia it's called out in Pittsburgh the other kind of place and that's probably you know a good although it's not you know from the point of view of the the Democratic Party insiders at that you know simple level or at the city level their position is less solid than it was but the folks who are who are organizing in mobilizing for greater grassroots engagement and transparency are doing things like registering voters and pulling people in to vote in off year elections at a pace that hadn't been seen in in recent memory so in terms of the party as a whole rather than the individual stakeholders locally that's probably a good thing although it's uncomfortable for some for some people. And so one thing you're referring to there is that you know a lot of a lot of these people is because they've become more politically active one way they've done that is by actually becoming local Democratic Party officials and so what is you know as people think about engaging in political activism obviously you can do that through a political party or not what is the importance of people who are trying to be active within democratic politics or actually becoming part of the of the party apparatus how does that make you more effective a lot of grassroots activists very quickly within their 1st 6 or 12 months of being involved the sort of post November 26th activists recognize that there were certain points or can you know bottlenecks within the political process where being an insider mattered even if being an insider means being a duly elected precinct person by having gotten you know 11 write in votes from your precinct in which we just literally use in most places within Pennsylvania Lisa cut off if no one is running you've got your You've got your 11 write in ballots and you're And and you are so in some sense you're a Democratic Party official at that point one thing that is preoccupying Democratic primary voters is who is most likely to be Donald Trump if nominated and unfortunately it's kind of difficult to figure out the answer that question a year ahead of an election the New York Times has done some interesting polling recently in battleground states including Pennsylvania and part of what they've done with that is try to look at you know what are persuadable voters like the sort of voters who say you know that they they think you might vote for Biden over Trump but they would vote for Trump over Elizabeth Warren and one of the groups that the Times identified as being over represented among those persuadable voters are sort of upper middle class suburbanites and suburbs suburban areas have been trending toward Democratic Party who express ideological objections to Elizabeth Warren who say they don't like single payer say they think she's too part of the left that sort of thing I've been wondering what sort of role these activist groups in this increased political engagement among suburban women would play. You know general election like that some of these areas where that polling might indicate toward warrant having specific weaknesses the candidate might also be areas where these groups would have the greatest strength on the ground I'm wondering if that's a significant countervailing factor as the Democratic Party sort of tries to to sell voters on a candidate who might have you know particular geographic weaknesses I think that's a really important point the grassroots groups that I think that we've been researching and that I've been describing are absolutely most prevalent in the but in places like the upscale inner you know relatively cosmopolitan upscale suburb of the inner suburbs and also just outside of that in more urban areas places that have been the classic sort of centerpiece of country club Republicans and so for sure it's the case that if Elizabeth Warren is the. Is the nominee that she will be able to rely on a bunch of. Impassioned local interlocutors in those places you know making the case for her. The other the sort of flip side or the other dimension that is that some of the places where the grassroots groups are all the other present in but in smaller numbers are the kind of Obama trump just strikes or Obama trump counties other We've also been that commentators also been focusing on. An important potential target or an area that some people think may be you know potentially potentially persuadable by a by the right candidate or by a Democratic candidate in 2020 Those are places that. Have more hard hit former industrial areas are places where the there's there's a much less. Pervasive presence of new grassroots groups and where those grassroots activists who who are there don't necessarily look a lot like in terms of their networks in terms of their own social position their own demographic indicators and so on that I'm not less. A lot like those potential voters around them so it's a little bit of an open question how effective they can or cannot be in bridging that divide the one thing that all grassroots groups and. You know who we're talking with are clear on is that no matter who the Democratic nominee is they're going to go out and supporting them so again there's a sort of core pragmatism there that can be brought to bear you know whatever their personal feelings about whoever the nominee is. Professor and Chair of the history apartment at the University of Pittsburgh thank you very much for joining me. That was my conversation with history professor at the university. Political scientist to talk about the anger gap. Right and Center and we want to hear. And. Laughed. And. On the latest episode of your view monsters I talk to the people who are teaching an artificial intelligence to speak in Richard Nixon's. Fellow Americans. Being that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace on the moon and. Be Monsters. Back again with. Josh barrow of New York magazine now we're going to talk about the role of anger in the 2020 campaign my guest for this conversation is. Gavin is an assistant professor of political science at u.c. Irvine where he studies topics including black politics public opinion and political communication coming book is called the anger gap how race emotion and politics welcome to have an. Thank you for having me. So I want to get your book in a moment about why white Americans both white Republicans and white Democrats have been more able to harness the political power of anger than black Americans but can we 1st talk about why anger is such a powerful force in politics what's special about anger in terms of motivating voters. Sure when we think about anger as an emotion distinct from other negative emotions in response to stressors or threats we can consider some characteristics that make it an action ready feeling when you are angry about something you feel a sense of light right you aren't as frustrated something happened that was a violation of a norm and you feel great proposing to right that wrong and so when you're feeling angry frustrated or scared or even said you have an increased impulsivity you have less of a sense of risk aversion and you're actually more prone to be more confident in your actions and less questioning of your actions and every action and so we think about the cloak arena when we see people be angry they are not only more likely to take up costly actions they're also more likely to have a bit of a tribal mentality and support their teams thank you very powerful for partisans looking to mobilize their base so I would tend to assume that would be easier for a party that's out of power to draw upon anger to motivate its voters than a party in power is that true and has Donald Trump found a way to turn that on its head finding a way to use anger to mobilize people even when he's already in charge of the government. Yes So generally based on my research looking at survey data from the American national election study I find that the party out of power is looking to harness anger and leverage it even more effectively because it's easier to make the threat to the party be more salient they already know what they're missing out on because they are in power and so you can simply crystallize what they have to lose from the regime and mobilized on the basis of hey we can't have this continued stated that dissatisfaction right you've got to be mobilized maybe about against this so I don't think Donald Trump is really. From past Republican regimes in finding a way to successfully cultivate anger amongst Republicans even when they do control power not just. The national level but increasingly the state level as well and so we can think about the kind of messaging that the Republican Party can utilize. And the ways in which they can make a group of people that in terms of representation are empowered feel like they're threatened or feel like they are being slighted by all of these different perhaps symbolic role kind of indicators that they're losing out so we can think about all that rhetoric of the disaffected but really kind of disaffected white males who disaffected folks in rural community this sort of books in middle America or the Chronicle real America. Was very kind of extreme in utilizing weaponize American averred but he did not create that playbook we can think about you know past Republican elites solidifying their playbook in him kind of taking it to another level what leads to an anger gap between black voters and white voters. Identifying a couple of factors when I see kind of across different political areas to kind of consistent trends one after Americans expressing less anger than their white counterparts over the same objects of anger or the same perspective threats and also anger being a much weaker mobilize or of political action especially electoral actions for after American relating to Aids so I think there's a couple of factors going on there one we have to think about the potential cost to African-Americans individually collectively of expressing that anger we can think about the very real archetypal serial type of The Angry Black Man angry black woman in the ways in which that invokes social or political or potential legal costs on African-Americans to what degree is the greater scrutiny or pushback if we show a level of emotional dissatisfaction with politics. We can also think about anger differences being rooted in very different sets of expectation and entitle me so as I mentioned you only get angry when you feel that some kind of norm is been violated when you feel you've been tonight something you rightfully deserve or that you rightfully expect to consider the greatly diminished or tempered expectations that many African-Americans carry towards politics that they don't expect the same kind of actual treatment because of a structural view of politics that. Indicates that black people are kind of marginalized within politics and then something that comes along within the political environment that white folks might respond to as you know something that's unacceptable that engendered indignation after Americans could look at that same thing and say well that's just an everyday part of life for me right that's something that I expect from a system that I don't necessarily think is operating freely and fairly so those kinds of dynamics are working I think to reinforce one another to create this kind of anger gap. You know you look at political landscape and you look at all these things that could be particular stressors for Americans they don't respond with anger they don't. And with those kind of clicks and flare they say Ok How can we can a person here in the midst of this right how can we push through this but I'm not going to see me angry it's interesting you talk in the book I mean because I've been when you when you talk about this the utility of anger as a motivating tool for white voters are not just a talking about conservative Republican whites you talk about a distinction between how black Democrats and white Democrats reacted to the election of Donald Trump with you know a lot more surprise and anger among whites and the sort of the more expectation and resignation of among black Democrats and so I guess that's that's partly about that's partly about a sense of entitlement you would say but also partly about just you know the a greater sense that you know the political system was what was supposed to work and was expected to work in a certain way and that and then it didn't that's exactly right and that's what I'm thinking about they speak about entitlement right not in the sense of we demand the particulars services and benefits right but having entitle me to a kind of a totally transparent and free and fair and responsible system generally African-Americans don't carry that same level of political trust and if you don't have that trust right you can't be as moved or as when you outcomes that you feel are. You know not expected and so how is this playing out post 2016 I mean one thing earlier in the show we spoke with Laura Putnam is a history professor at the University of Pittsburgh about the rise of resistance political groups especially in the suburbs especially among college educated white women who've had a big change in their level of political activism following the 2016 election what we in 2016 there was some somewhat of a drop off of African-American turnout compared to to the previous 2 elections where Barack Obama had been on the ballot what is an indication of how black responses to the Trump administration are playing out in terms of political engagement both that we saw in the midterms and we're seeing going into the 2020 laughs and I think that is question right so. I think this era of resistance is really critical for understanding the kind of racial differences and which emotions mobilize groups and what I find in addition to the anger gap is that African-Americans are generally more mobilized by positive emotions such as hope and pride and so you did so I think that maps with our understanding of black patterns of turnout even in presidential elections when we look at the surge of blacks are not for Obama in 082012 that's not just about you know I think it's also about the incredible resonance in salience of his messaging which we 1st heard from Jesse Jackson's primary campaigns in 84 need you know keeping hope alive and yes we can in change I think these are very mobilizing messages because they resonate with the ways in which like people look to navigate a racially stressful environment I think they have a resonance with the Eagles the black Christian church as well and so when we look at the error or the kind of state black mobilization resistance we have to look beyond the mobilizing power of the threat of 4 more years of this regime but people on the ground I think particularly in the 20 midterms are mobilized by a mix of dissatisfaction with the status quo and also very clear and resident signals they got a response in this from Democratic operatives on the ground and so we can think at the state wide level you know they didn't win elections the candidates for governor in Florida and Georgia how they were able to strike a responsive chord not just the black voters right but with a multi-racial Democratic base they weren't simply talking about rescinding were simply talking about mobilizing the base in anger over the status quo right there also offering a very clear and. Concretely drawn contrasts between that status quo that can give people something to hope for in addition is something to kind of rally against and so I think that's interesting and indicative of potential playbook for the Democratic candidates at the. Rational over the presidency and at this level and even at the level of Congress going forward how do you find that balance between identifying the things that your base rightfully grieved about but also recognizing those intro group differences in what is going to strike the most responsive chord the Democratic side has a much more uphill battle because they have a much more really diverse base then the Republican Party which members who are being so racially homogenous can rely on the same type of messaging to mobilize anger that's going to be leveraged actively by space what is the interplay between what you describe there in terms of the power of messages about hope and optimism with with black voters but then also you talk about resignation among black voters I mean aren't those aren't those in tension how do you how do you have how are the our messages of hope so affective with with a group that you describe as as having a tendency toward resignation because you know so many so much disappointment in the history of American politics. Yes So I think the dynamic at work here is that the resignation. Really a self-preservation mechanic so if you're encountering a political environment in which King at that environment there racialized lanes that stresses that the system is not responsive to your group's collective demands or concerns then when you encounter those kinds of threats or those kinds of confirmations of that belief and understanding it exhausting right and it's stressful and it can be alienating and so rather than respond with indignation or even any 80 about each of those indicators or confirmations you respond by saying you know what I'm going to let this out of my back I'm going to get together a group or we're going to commiserate we're going to laugh this off I think that's what the resignation is doing right it's kind of giving you an outlet for processing the disappointments so the same time when you're in chartering that rare perspective opportunity or that reason for hope that can be particularly powerful for you because of how it doesn't square right Ok here with what you expect. And oftentimes we're thinking about the power of threats to move people or kind of considering those threats as rare or unique to someone right because they're generally satisfied with how things are going in that there is imposed and that more to be a very distinct response you can go fight or flight right I'm kind of arguing that there's a unique dynamic graphic Americans wear that opportunity represents the departure from the status quo as opposed to the threat was. What do you make of Joe Biden strong appeal to black voters in this primary in that context 11 not I see a lot on Joe Biden from progressives not just white progressives but but I guess mostly from white progressives is sort of saying that he's naive optimistic about certain things that you know he says that he's going to go in there he's going to be able to work with Republicans and achieve things with a Congress that Barack Obama couldn't necessarily and that is that is criticized as being a sort of a successful play optimistic about about his chances about what he can do but it seems that that is that that is messaging is connecting very well with with black voters or at least significantly better with black voters than it is with white folks. Yes I think there is something resonant about that kind of optimistic message in particular because it's not an optimism that seems so beyond the pale right so African-Americans resignation does generally to a sense of tempered expectations and so if you're promising the stars and the moon that is not the kind of poke you that's going to effectively mobilize the group right this is a group that is very much quite pragmatic and so I think the large support for Biden at the processor at the time which is still very early right in the process I think is largely indicative of that black pragmatism it's not Biden's connection to Obama would certainly doesn't hurt him amongst many voters particularly but it's the older voters. But also the fact that it's like the devil you know right so Biden being on the political. Met for so long gives him an added layer of credibility that's not something that the other candidates can't over turn over com We still have a ways to go but I think that's largely the reason we've seen such staunch support of African-Americans for Biden it's very similar to that in a McQueen's witness in 2008 when despite the calls the pundits average Americans weren't moving wholesale to Barack Obama until he stabbed himself particular with his strong showing in Iowa as a truly viable candidate right up to that point support had been quite stark for Hillary Clinton that's because of that built in credibility based on the long term association that the Clintons had with black voters so I think that's what we're seeing there with Biden and that's something you hear from basically all the Democratic campaigns that are the Biden campaign and say you know look at 2008 look how black support in South Carolina turned so much after the Iowa result but it seems to me like the likeliest thing if Biden doesn't win Iowa is that some other white candidate is going to win Iowa or maybe Elizabeth Warren conceivably Bernie Sanders and a lot of the polling I've seen has you know the top 3 candidates with black voters all being white candidates what do you make of the lack of black support at least so far for black candidates in this race and then also is someone like Elizabeth Warren in a position to take an Iowa win and take that to black voters in South Carolina I mean obviously she's not going to have the same the same pitch that Barack Obama could have had in 2008 that he was going to be the 1st black president are black voters in in South Carolina waiting for Elizabeth Warren to show that she can win Iowa. It's certainly possible so in thinking about. The maybe lack of support for Booker and Harris I think it's very instructive in thinking about black voters being much more strategic in very then oftentimes the question implies a descriptor of simply not enough there is a looking at all of the kind of facts of the record they can be lean in so I think particularly among younger generations black voters might face at a scrutiny right because of her past career in law enforcement and as a prosecutor and kind of in the carts role. Of government and Cory Booker has similar questions about the ways in which he rise in Ascension in politics coming New Jersey right at the expense of the kind of all the guard black politics represented in start James in the ways in which he might not be viewed as carrying the baton of the civil rights generation which is very much the reviewer as like you were thinking about politics right because of code against it in kind of pushed against in a way that he might still be struggling to overcome There's also questions about credibility. That both of these candidates still have time to address but I think that's why we're not seeing that robust support because there's kind of these red flags but lingering questions that haven't been told the ironed out the question of someone like Elizabeth Warren being positioned to receive that kind of black support after a strong showing I think that's very much in play you know as before and has had some real strides in making concrete clear overtures to the black community I think about the ways in which she spoke specifically about. Black women in black women's access to health when she spoke at a Black Women's Forum a few months back there's also been some pitfalls right so I think there's a struggle when she has trouble identifying black individuals who would name to a cabinet you know black people are very aware of the power of those kinds of cues in signals as indicators right of how much attention a candidate is going to give to their precise needs but given that less of one has made clear strides not to talk about concrete in a way that I think does evoke maybe both a sense of optimism and hope I'm right in addition to kind of a recognition of things that are wrong or a sense of indignation and she's also meets in Congress directly to black voters and that like any other kind of relevant group in politics what black voters are seeking. Public opinion and communication His forthcoming book is called the anger. Thank you for speaking with me. Back again with left right and center I'm your host Josh Barrow and I'm joined now by 2 political reporters on the trail covering the 2020 presidential campaign Herndon is national politics reporter for The New York Times and Charlotte Alter is national correspondent at Time magazine well and thanks for having us absolutely So one of the things I was I was just discussing with that in Phoenix was some inroads that Elizabeth Warren has been working to make with black voters in this campaign obviously Joe Biden has been the front runner in general has been well out in front in terms of black support but Elizabeth Warren has has made some inroads with black voters and particularly it sounds like a lot of inroads with with black project progressive activists and so I think you talk about this event that Warren recently had down in Atlanta with black women political activists and with Congresswoman ion oppressively one member of the squad from Massachusetts who has endorsed her and what you sort of see there in terms of Elizabeth Warren strategy to try to break into that wall that people perceive Joe Biden as having with black voters Yeah I think the event was an important one the kind of understand what Warren's trying to do here I think it starts actually at the New York events you had was kind of her biggest campaign rally yet in the story of the fire talk about women's role in labor movements and one of the things that was coming out of that I know the campaign was thinking about was how to make sure it is not is a racially diverse movement that they're talking about not just the kind of white suffragists but also black and brown woman who women who contributed to those movements also and so they view this piece of the land as kind of a sequel to that and it was a similar type of event another kind of stage set piece that we see from our that's kind of rare and so I think it requires some examination there act like Atlanta University the h.b.c. You in Atlanta all women's college and it was a packed house and she gave another similar historical speech this is about the last for women who went on strike. And formed a kind of washerwoman society but. Again telling the story about how black women's contributions to the labor movement plays plays a key role in which he views as the resurgence of perfectly progressive activism and I think that the political message there was I recognize that race has a specific role in the kind of progressive landscape as well as one lives don't talk about race neutral policies and the more I think she's trying to say that I don't have the kind of blind spots that some of accuse other leftists of having I think that race is a unique factor here and we need government programs that specifically target racial injustices and using her support from from her black berets and also history to tell their message in this one part of a broader strategy for her in the campaign Yeah I mean you know one of the things that I've heard from really high profile black women progressive activists is that when they call the one campaign the one campaign answers the phone they want to hear their concerns and they feel heard especially And I think it's part of I mean if you look at Warren strategy with calling up her small grassroots donors you know she releases this video like hey it's Elizabeth Warren and it said a teacher on the other line or an ordinary person who's been supporting her campaign this is all part of a strategy of personal outreach and an accountability that trying to present herself as having to ordinary Americans and I think she's been especially proactive about doing that when. When black progressive organizers I've talked to so many many of these organizers say that they're undecided there are a lot of candidates who are interesting to them but they don't particularly impressed by Warren's ability to reach out to them sit down hear their concerns come back with a policy that reflects their conversation follow up and it's not always mediated by staff and so what is the role of organized black progressive activists in terms. As as an inroad into the black electorate more broadly because I mean so far obviously Joe Biden is still way ahead of Warren in the polls with black voters black black Democrats are more likely than white Democrats to describe themselves to pollsters as moderate or conservative white Democrats are a lot more likely to say that they're liberal or very liberal so it is the strategy to get ahead of Joe Biden or is this does this sort of one slice of the black electorate that may not be representative of the broader black electorate I think it applies I think she's got to start somewhere and where she's starting is the people who are kind of ideologically on her side let's remember that even in the last election Bernie Sanders who have the I View logical similarities with many of these people was not able to consolidate that support. Quickly because of these kind of like Charlie saying there wasn't the kind of communication you're activists saying they did not feel particularly hurt there was a protest against Sanders at the time and they did not feel like there was an open dialogue about criminal justice or in his make this a linchpin I mean even if we date back before the campaign in the last year in the run up to her announcement she has by far been the most aggressive into reaching out to the black left which I will again separate from black electorate this is the black progressive side where it wasn't one to one that she was definitely going to be their type of candidate but she has been someone who has infused her policies with the kind of messages they want and been an open book to them I think she thinks of that as a start for kind of energetic start for the black electorate as a whole which as you mention is more moderate is more religious than the kind of Joe Biden on and on that note and that has some some really great reporting on as. For the last 3 elections we've seen black voters largely vote as a block for Obama twice and then for Clinton and one of the things really interesting about this race is that you have a vice president to a popular black president you have to the. Really compelling black candidates you have Bernie Sanders who has really high name recognition you have Elizabeth Warren has been making really effective outreach into the community and so you we may not black voters vote with one candidate this time it make it seems very likely that there will be splintering across other. Other lines and this election will essentially be decided by how that splinters because there was an analysis by n.b.c. News which I thought was really interesting that basically said that if current trends continue one in 4 ballots cast in the Democratic primary will be cast by black voters or black voters will decide this election and the question is who is getting their support and how much and why but if but if the black fragments like that then maybe black voters won't decide the I think right that's a great point I think that part of the power has always been the of the black electorate picking one candidate as far as mentions I don't think anyone in the warren Sanders world things are going to put up Obama numbers with black people what they do need to win though is for Joe Biden the kind of come down or that's funny about waiting for Joe Biden to come down to earth I feel like that's everybody's strategy in a number of ways I mean it's Mike Bloomberg strategy like why is he getting in this race because it's sort of an assumption that Joe Biden has to fall apart at some point when can we expect Joe Biden to come down to earth I mean I feel like if you're hearing people say it's early it's early it's early as early it's not that early anymore yeah I mean I don't know if it's tricky I don't hear I don't hear a ton of enthusiasm for Joe Biden out on the trail I think another really important thing to consider is that is the disparity between opinions of like people who think and care about politics and are following it all the time like the 3 of us 1st is a lot of ordinary people who maybe are going to be tuning in. 2 weeks before they vote a week before they vote and right now Joe Biden is the person that they've heard of and that they're the most familiar with although that's funny because medically this was tweeting about this a couple weeks ago I think was a Quinnipiac poll he was playing to that like Joe Biden actually does better with voters who say they're paying a lot of attention than with voters who say they're not as Bernie Sanders who and Texas with people who say they're not paying a lot of attention and so I think you know there's sort of I think there's been a huge disconnect between sort of the media and political class where candidates who do well with college educated voters especially college educated white voters so you know we're looking at Elizabeth Warren to some extent mayor piece sort of get over inflated in terms of her chances and then there's there's not enough discussion of Biden I also feel like that Bernie Sanders who I also don't expect any centers to win this nomination I feel like he's been sort of written off in a way that I find a little odd given where he is in the polls I mean both for dissenters and so by they think the people are going to sweep some of them to the nomination are people in the blindspot political media as I think that is a joint between them but also like if that theory is right then yeah I mean Bernie Sanders is correct that there's a lot of people who are outside of this process who are going to get in because they believe in a Medicare fraud move and he still went I mean that's a very tall order right but like it that period correct Joe Biden's theory is also that that's where there is of the world the kind of activists of war when you go to these forums and he's being pressed about this answer in that answer and he doesn't respond in the right way that that's not the electorate that's actually going to put him over the top it's people who are sitting at their home scared about Donald Trump you mentioned sort of the idea that one thing that might be an entry for other candidates is if the 1st early states we can Joe Biden a little bit and the reason they might do that is because the 1st 2 states that vote are much wider than the country as a whole month the electorate they'll be much wider than Democratic primary electorate as a whole what do people on the ground in Iowa New Hampshire have to say about that is there a recognition that the system where you know it and in a party where 40 percent of the electorate is not white to have the 1st 2 contests in states where 90 percent of the electorate is wife that's a problem in the long run. I think I would be nice to see what you say about this I think it's been increasingly talked about as Mayor Pete has capitalized on it rather than when Elizabeth Warren was capitalizing on this for months the same electorate that made Elizabeth Warren a cold front runner this made Mayor Pete an early state front runner if that's a white liberal college educated voter I think progressives are increasingly annoyed at that electorate wants to provide the candidate who they don't really like I also think that the will of the candidates have landed on and as I say all the 1st 4 states in combination give us a representative sample but of course that doesn't recognize the particular importance of those 1st 2 when you're in the ground in Iowa. Katie Clayton Sidney had a great story on this they say they know Joe Biden is not running as strong as other folks I mean that's kind of clear because of the way the caucuses are so much about organizing and about driving out your base the question is whether he finishes in a place that messes up his support elsewhere and I don't think anyone really knows exactly what that is if he finishes 3rd is that enough if it does have to be 4th or 5th there's a debate on who the mark what the margins are and who finishes above him I don't think we know those answers but I don't think anyone expects in Iowa I haven't heard much people talking about Joe Biden winning it yeah I also haven't heard that I've heard I have been surprised frankly by the tremendous enthusiasm that I've seen from Mayor Pete in Iowa and what I found particularly interesting and bizarre was bizarre given how different they are politically from one another is how I would go around to Pete rallies in Iowa and ask people who they caucus for in 2016 and some of them would say Bernie Sanders So it's like this I think that. To the question of Iowa and whether it's fair. I haven't heard per ton of soul searching from Iowa voters about whether this is fair certainly a narrative that's been bubbling up in political media I do think one of the things that people would say is that listen any Democrat who's going to win a general election is going to need to prove both their ability to went to assemble a diverse coalition and their ability to win over suburban white voters in places like Iowa because that's what won Democrats the House of Representatives and in some ways the lessons of 28 Tina are. Are almost the 2 big takeaway lessons of 20000 are almost divergent from one another because on the one hand you have the resurgence of the progressive left with people like a.f.c. And the squad elected and socialist elected and on city councils in various places and state legislatures and then you also have sort of the actual path to victory for Democrats in that election went through a lot of the. Ex-urban and suburban districts that any Democratic nominee has any to when. I mean that that but for that work or a war cry or the candidates to say explicitly is that it is valuable the preference tells white Suburban I went and they can say that out loud of course right and so and so they're in this pickle where they where Elizabeth Warren is asked the question and she says I'm just a player in the game which is a very non Elizabeth Warren answer yes because because right politics of it are so toxic for what and and it's also like you know like. Kind of in defense of that answer it's a little bit like what's going to do bad of that Iowa caucus like that unfortunately that's the way they set it up this year I mean you're right maybe they all could out of the Iowa caucus but that seems like it would be I mean Ok so the Castro answer is to say it's unfair even while you go their way to say that the 1st I don't get the you know similar thinkable or the 1st or couple that the same time I don't know why that is a good point that was a really good point and look how the Castro asked answer work for one Castro. I can only say that the answer of your own interested in winning Iowa which is why the politics are so messy in terms of people this this primary being a game of waiting for Joe Biden to stumble is there an indication we should be watching for before Iowa actually votes on February 3 is that where the proof comes in that like if Biden is not able to improve his standing in Iowa and does not win the caucuses is that when it breaks through to the public and that's when the poll numbers movers the or can we say if you know if Joe Biden is still well in the lead nationally and on January 15th can we call him the really serious trouble at that point it is my opinion that. Where Joe Biden finishes in Iowa is much more important than who wins and I think that the difference the number I'm looking for is if he drops from around the top pack in Iowa which he currently has to firmly outside and I think if we're going into a final month before Iowa where he's looking more like fish than 3rd that is a big indicator I think if Favre believes among black voters are rising with other candidates not necessarily that they're backing him in polling but they like them is another indicator I'm looking at. But some of it is just going to have to come on caucus day. I think that Democrats love to fall in love and they will and also Democrats love surprises and that's why you know for example people complain I see a lot I think fairly that Mayor p. Has gotten all this coverage and I'm certainly somewhat responsible for that because I cover him unfortunate I mean fortunately or unfortunately and partly I try to honestly I try not to talk too much about the campaign because my husband is a professional fund raising out of and then one of the climbers but I mean isn't one of the key things there that like Pete says yes the media requests for most of that are why you get so much coverage definitely but and also he surprise it's a it's a shocking it's a Who is this guy a what and somebody like Joe Biden it's like Joe Biden sort of a president like what else is new and and so I think that I think you're totally right about about where Joe Biden finishes in Iowa but what I've heard out on the trail and this is true for in particular Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders is that they have people who are who are with them but open to other options they're with them but they're not converts they're with them but they're at they also kind of you know somebody might be with Joe Biden but they also want to hear it calmly Harris the same and oh Cory Booker is really interesting or there or they you know their interest they they're with Bernie but they kind of like what Elizabeth Warren has to say too and so they have I think that their support her then it appears in the polls right now because they are the. Both of those 2 candidates are the. Sort of I'm not really saying that in a. Way but their supporters are open to other options in a way that for example. I want to thank. You. For having us. 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You can also call 533371101 leave a message and we'll get back to you in community radio thank you for your loyal support. Today as last bowed out of Shanghai by Helen the subtitle The Epic Story of the Chinese who fled Mao's revolution from the prologue. Shanghai May 4th 1949. Straight in the pedicab gripping the hard seat as the driver cursed and spat she watched with alarmist feet clad in sandals cut from old tires seemed to a nail sales pace just when she most needed speed. Looking young woman had imagined that her last hours in Shanghai would be spent waiting farewell from a ship's deck and b.s. Onlookers below as a river breeze gently lifted her dark hair just as seen in the movies after all she was about to leave China's biggest most glamorous and most notorious city but now with the imminent threat of violent communist revolution she was running away again along with half the city's population it seemed that instead of standing at the rail exchanging smiles in the ship's other passengers she was stuck in traffic terrified that she wouldn't reach the Shanghai Hong wharf.
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