the goal is to get a solution so that our country is in much better fiscal -- [inaudible question] megyn: joining me now stu varney host of varney & company on the fox business network. stu now we are hearing that they are dealing with gridlock amongst the committee, and yet some are saying a modest deal could still come together. if one does not, you've been saying all along and say again today, we could very well be facing a second credit downgra downgrade. >> megyn i'm terribly sorry i just picked up on you there. yes, if there are no cuts of any kind, or if there is a big delay in cuts we are likely to get a downgrade. now, if we get big cuts right up front they'll probably be no downgrade. but there is a backdrop to all of this. and that backdrop is an event that is likely to take place very soon, and that is we cross $15 trillion in our total debt, that is beingee memory news pressure on the idea of getting that debt down. that's what we're building up the super committee, will they or won't they come up with some kind of a deal that restricts that debt at some point in the future? that's what the downgrade hangs on, megyn. megyn: what happens if the super committee kicks the can down the road and there is another six months for them to come up with a deal, yada, yada, yada, do we face another downgrade if that happened. >> yes we do. getting a delay on these cuts or only cutting a small amount, that is not good enough, that is not good enough for the ratings agencies. they want a big cut and they want it very soon. so if you kick the can down the road, yada, yada, yada or cut a very small amount that is just not good enough. you are still looking at the likelihood of another downgrade. megyn: this is speculation right now. we don't know what is going to happen. the cochairman of the super committee, a republican from texas said any deal the panel produces will either be, quote, an abject failure, or and i quote a kiss your sister agreement. i don't think he means that in, you know, i love my sister, here she is, merry christmas, sis, he means it's not exactly the greatest thing in the world, you'd rather kiss your wife. >> look at this from the point of view of the rating agencies. they see $15 trillion in debt, 16 trillion within one year. 454billion a year in interest alone, that is 9 billion a week, that is financial pressure. the ratings agent sears saying, look, can you pay all of that money back? we don't think you can, therefore you've got to restrict it. so unless you get a big cut in that future deficit, and by big the ratings agencies mean $3 trillion over that ten years, unless you get that, yeah, it's kissing your sister, it's not going anywhere, it's not going to happen, it won't avoid the downgrade. megyn: we've talked before about the consequences to americans if we get that second credit downgrade and none of them are good. stu, thank you. >> sure. megyn: fox news is america's election headquarters. one of the top stories from the headquarters today, we have a four-way tie right now in the latest poll out of iowa. take a look at these numbers. bloomberg news has herman cain, newt gingrich, mitt romney and ron paul all in a statistical tie with the caucuses now just a few weeks away. could the iowa number see a surge of the ron paul campaign, similar to what we've seen with newt gingrich and herman cain before him over the past months and weeks. the congressman joins us live the top of our next hour. what is it with the government and default? now the u.s. postal service is close to defaulting on its debt. the postal service supposed to pay the federal government $5.5 billion every year. this year they say they can't do it reporting losses of $5 billion. the post master general has warned the post office will go belly up next year unless there is congressional action. another alert for you now, a fierce hunt is underway at this moment for a gunman who opened fire on the white house. a nation-wide search happening at this moment for 21-year-old oscar ortega hernandez. he was linked to an abandoned car found friday near the white house with an assault rifle in it. shortly after reports of gunfire down the street from the president's home. now two bullets have been found outside of the white house, one that hit a special bulletproof window and another that hit the side of the building. police have an arrest warrant out for this suspect. wendell goler live at the white house. wendell this is incredible. >> reporter: the bullets were actually found yesterday and police still haven't confirmed they were fired by the assault rifle they recovered, but they do suggest the white house was the target of the shooting, something police really weren't sure of when it happened on friday night. now the f.b.i., secret service, and several local police agencies are very aggressively looking for this oscar ortega her eve hernandez who was actually in police custody earlier friday before the shootings occurred but was released. police investigators were working on the true man balcony. it has the door to the president's private sitting room just off his bedroom, though the window they were probing connects to the yellow oval room next door. the bullet penetrated the glass, you can see there, but was stopped by ballistic glass just inside that. mr. obama had actually left for the apex summit when the shots were fired friday night about 9:00. about 7 or 800 yards from the south side of the white house witnesses said that two cars raced away from the scene. police quickly located a car with a semi automatic rifle inside. they connected items found in that car to the suspect, the guy you see here, 21-year-old oscar ortega hernandez, said to be living in the washington area, described as 5'11", medium build, brown eyes, black hair. he had been stopped across the potomoc river in virginia on friday morning allegedly for loitering. the police didn't detain him. there is an arrest warrant out for him now, though. ortega hernandez has not been linked to any radical organization. he does have an arrest record in three states. police actually searched the occupy washington d.c. eve encampment which is about a dozen blocks from the white house based on reports that ortega hernandez had spent time with the protestors there, but they found nothing. megyn: wow, thank you. this is not the first time we have seen gunfire at or near the white house. april 2007 two secret service agents were injured in an accidental shooting, one shot in the leg the other taking shrapnel to the face. october 94 bill clinton was president. a man name francisco duran pulled a semi automatic rifle from underneath a trench coat and fired 29 rounds at the white house. he's serving 49 years behind bars. ronald reagan was in the office, a man was shot by guards after walking up to the grounds and pulling a loaded sawed-off shotgun out. doctors later said he had psychological problems. july of 76, gerald ford was in the white house when the secret service shot and killed a man who kupl -pd th jumped the fence. foxnews.com spoke with an exsecret service agent about what it takes to protect the president. it's there now on foxnews.com. new developments today in the search for little baby lisa irwin. these developments could mean bad news. police admit they have already pursued thousands of leads with little to no success. now the mother of one of baby lisa's siblings, her half siblings says she wants her child back, and the possibility of a custody battle has a lot of people wondering what that could mean for the already troubled case. trace gallagher live in l.a. with more. trace. >> reporter: so now, megyn on top of keeping the cops at arm's length, the lawyers for the parents of baby lisa are now going after the biological mother of blake, that is baby lisa's half brother. the mother says she wants full custody because she does not believe that he's safe in that house. the parents attorney has now given us this statement saying, and i'm quoting here, not to dignify this woman's response with a comment, but she has abandoned this boy and hasn't seen him for six years despite a court order allowing visits, and she hasn't paid court-ordered child support. she should be ashamed to call herself a mother. meantime the parents and their sons have now moved back into the home where baby lisa went missing. we are told when deb bradley first walked back into baby lisa's room she was very emotional. now we're told the plan is for the family to try to get back to some sense of normalcy. we contacted police, they are actively pursuing leads and they are again saying they want to sit down with both of the parents and interview them separately. the parents are saying, no, it's not going to happen, they are ruling that out. it's kind of interesting, because now a former kansas city police detective, his name is david bernard has new weighed in on this. and he is saying he's not two big take aways from this. one he says that history tells him after many, many investigations that he does not believe that baby lisa is any longer alive. and he also says that time is on the cops' side because as time goes by these relationships start to deteriorate and people begin talking and he says police just need one big break. so far they have not got even that megyn. megyn: thank you. after thousands of leads turn up next to nothing, what do investigators do in cases like this? what if that investigator trace was referencing is wrong and this baby girl is out there right now? the hands of god knows who? robert lowry jr. of the national center of missing and exploited children joins us today with insight on what happens when investigators like eve like in this case appear to run out of leads. we'll talk about that coming up about a half hour away. we've got breaking news coming in right now from alabama where we have reports of a tornado on the ground, possibly near the university of auburn. we're also getting damage reports from montgomery, alabama, and janice dean is getting ready to update us on that. plus, we are just now learning about a loophole in pennsylvania law that could prevent some of the alleged penn state sex-abuse victims from filing civil suits against the school. we will be joined right after this break by an attorney who has actually been looking into this. very well known in pennsylvania and who has been consulting with some of these victims. and president obama has been on the campaign trail talking about how america is broken. how will that message work for his re-election? that debate ahead. >> we've lost our ambition, our imagination, and our willingness to do the things that built the golden gate bridge, and hoover today. we've been a little bit lazy i think over the last couple of decades. we've taken for granted people want to come here and we are not out there hungry selling america. megyn: fox news alert, we are now getting tornado warnings in alabama and georgia. meteorologist janice dean has the very latest. j. t., what do we know. >> reporter: a scary situation, megyn as we head into the afternoon and even tonight. we have confirmed reports of damage across mississippi and now into alabama, reports of damage in montgomery, alabama, obviously heavily populated. tornado watch meaning the conditions are favorable for tornadoes. we are watching this line that extends north of the atlanta area down through east of montgomery alabama and tornado warnings, tornado warnings meaning we have spotted tornadoes on the ground or doppler radar-indicated tornadoes. you can see the tornadoes north of montgomery and also north of the atlanta-metro area, heavily populated regions here. we are very concerned with this area, tornado watch in vehicle until 6:00pm local time. you can see that shield of rain moving up into the mid-atlantic and the northeast where we could certainly get heavy rain in a very short period of time. megyn just want to show you that severe threat region across the southeast and the mid-atlantic throughout the afternoon and the evening and we'll bring you the very latest in active warnings as the afternoon goes during your show. back to you. megyn: thank you. a new twist in the penn state sex-abuse scandal. word no that a loophole in the pennsylvania legal system could prevent some of the alleged victims from ever filing suit against the school or the man at the center of the scandal, jerry sandusky. shane inspector is an attorney contacted by the mother of one of sandusky's alleged victims and he's my guess now. thank you very much for being here. i want to tuck to you. you unlike a lot of folks opining on this case have actually looked at the relevant law in pennsylvania. what is the loophole that might wind up protecting jerry sandusky? >> well, megyn, i think ultimately that loophole will not be successful, but the structure of pennsylvania law is that a minor has until the age of 20 to file a claim for personal injuries. all of these young men, except for one, among the eight that have been reported, are now in their 20s, over the age of 20. the legislator in two gave victims of child sexual abuse an extra ten years to file such claims, that is until the age of 30, but in order to get the extra ten years you have to show that the acts complained of were the result of forcible compulsion. now what thi does forcible compulsion mean? there are cases on both sides of that issue, but some cases suggest that certain aspects of what's been alleged to have been done by mr. sandusky with these boys may be argued by the defendants not to have involved forcible compulsion. i'm not talking now about, for example, the rape situation, but other incidents that are described. so, that is a concern that i have with respect to these claims going forward. megyn: let me stop you there and ask you and then we'll get to that. i don't want to get too graphic either. inappropriate touching short of rape might not be forcible compulsion? are there cases that are on point there? >> well, i believe that inappropriate touching short of rape, to use your example, does involve forcible compulsion, because it involves at a minimum psychological coercion which has been held by some courts to be sufficient to satisfy the forcible compulsion prong of the test that allows you to get the extra ten years before you file suit. but there are some cases that hold on the other side of that coin. so, my concern is that these victims are going to need experienced and effective advocates to make the argument that they do have the benefit of these extra ten years. and if they don't get that benefit, then the claims for the young men who are over the age of 20 will not be able to go forward. megyn: i don't understand how any court could conclude that a child, a child who had been abused in any way, whether it was, you know an explicit rape or something short of rape but abuse, sexually abused by this man, could be deemed in the eyes of the law not -- to be a willing participant, to not have been forced. children, they can't make the judgment. you know, the legal age of consent doesn't even allow that recognition that they can willingly participate in sex acts with other, you know, children that they want to participate in sex acts with until they are 14, 16 in many states. why won't it protect these victims? >> well, megyn you're making an excellent argument, and it's the argument that i would make as well, but some courts have not agreed. for example, in 1988 the pennsylvania supreme court held that in a case involving a 14-year-old girl who had a guardian, where the guardian said to the 14-year-old girl, if you don't have sex with me i'm going to send you to a detention home, and then she went forward and had sex with her guardian, and then he was prosecuted for rape, that that situation did not involve forcible compulsion. megyn: unbelievable. >> i believe that clearly does involve forcible compulsion. when you say to a 14-year-old girl if you don't have sex with me i'm going to send you to a detention home, that is forcible compulsion if there ever was it. but our supreme court held that it was not. and that is my concern. megyn: i'm against a hard break. i want to get this question to you. having spoke between some of the victims in this case, or at least one, do you feel like there will be civil lawsuits and do you feel like the victims are mentally in a place where they can see those lawsuits through? >> well, i can't discuss any contacts our firm may have had with any potential victims or their families. yes, there will be civil lawsuits, yes i believe they are going to be filed soon. these cases are going to be, in my view, seen through, because you've had young men here who have come forward to the authorities, some of whom probably have testified in front of the grand jury. their names can all be maintained in privacy. we don't have to have their names be made public. megyn: there is a way of protecting them. apologize for put cutting you off. we are up against a hard break. i appreciate it. all the best to your dad. the son of arlen specter, folks. coming up an update on the little lisa case. we'll have that when we come back. of their retirement. it's the first of more than 6,000 sunrises the average retiree wl see. ♪ as we're living longer than ever before, prudential's challenge is to help everyone have the retirement income they'll ed to enjoy every one of their days. ♪ prudential. bring yr challenges. megyn: fox news weather alert now with a little more on the serious weather threat happening some places today. the national weather service issuing tornado warnings for parts of alabama as a round of severe storms moves east. this is brand-new video out of laurel, mississippi where a reported tornado toppled trees and flipped over cars a little earlier. look at video, the picks? we are told that at least five homes were destroyed, dozens more were damaged. thankfully no one was killed. this is a live look at the radar where you can see the most intense storms in eastern alabama now headed for georgia. northern atlanta is under a tornado warning. these are major metropolitan areas, so we are watching this very carefully. it's been nearly a decade since the tas has first started asking travelers to open up their bags and take off their shoes at airports around the nation. the u.s. travel association is issuing a report card on the agency's progress. how are they doing? chief intelligence correspondent catherine herridge is live in arlington, virginia. >> reporter: this is really the time of year as we head into the holidays that all of these groups release various surveys and the usta released theirs this morning. what is striking about that survey is that in almost every case the problems come down to the security on bags, that everyone tries to avoid the checked baggage fees. let's take a look at the run down of the number one complaint over 70% said their top frustration was the amount of carry on baggage people were taking to the check-point followed by the long lines at the screening check points caused by all the carry on baggage. number three, taking off your shoes, our belts and over coats. and then number four just plain old unfriendly or unhelpful tsa screeners. a short time ago we had another report, this report here released by two members of congress on the t sa and their bottom line is that they felt that the tsa had really become an over blown -- a blow to bureaucracy. >> no one ever envisioned 4,000 administrative personnel in washington d.c. making on average the exact amounts here, it's almost $104,000, and then nearly another 10,000 out in the field. >> reporter: congressman brown said, or at least went as far as to say that he didn't think the tsa had really made a difference in the last ten years. >> america has spent nearly $60 billion funding tsa and they are no safer today than they were before 9/11. >> reporter: we asked the tsa for comment waoerbgs haven't had one yet. i would point out the fact simply there has not been another hijacking and there has not been an explosive taken onto a jet domestically megyn in the last ten years. so you can decide for yourself if tsa has made a difference. megyn: good point. thank you. police searching for little lisa irwin receiving hundreds and hundreds of tips. in the days after she disappeared from her home the national center for missing children weighed in as well sending one of its team to kansas city to help the investigators. that group will join us live just ahead on where the search for this baby goes from here. ronald reagan ran for the white house on morning in america, but president obama seems to have a much darker message these days in terms of his language and rhetoric. how will that work? >> we've lost our ambition, our imagination, and our willingness to do the things that built the golden gate bridge, and hoover dam. we've been a little bit lacy lazy over the last couple of deng aids. w decades. we take for granted that people want to come here and we are not out there, hungry, selling america. 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[ female announcer ] phillips' colon health. most powerful trading app ? total access - to everything. from idea to research to trade. including financials, indicators and real-time streaming quotes. whether you check your investments every day or every minutoup n tafr . megyn: fox news extreme weather alert nor you now. we are watching these storms? the southeastern part of the united states. now there are two counties near atlanta that are under tornado warnings. that means that a tornado has been spotted. so we are watching that area. you should also check your local listings to see what is happening if you live in this region. again, warning means one has been spotted, this is right outside of atlanta, georgia. we will continue to follow it for you right here. now to the campaign trail. new questions about recent remarks from president obama. while presidents reagan and clinton both used a mourning in america type of theme president obama has recently been describing a company where companies are dishonest, our ambition has faded and our institutions are struggling. take a listen. >> we've lost our ambition, our imagination, and our willingness to do the things that built the golden gate bridge, and hoover dam, and unleashed all the potential in this country. a free market was never meant to be a free license to take whatever you can get, however you can get it. that's what happened too often in the years leading up to this crisis. the insurance industry is rolling out the big guns and breaking out their massive war chest to marshal their forces for one last fight to save the status quo. they are filling the air waves with deceptive and dishonest ads. >> the only warfare i've seen is the one waged against middle class people in this country. >> we've taken for granted people want to come here and we aren't out there hungry, selling america. we've got -- we still have, within our grasp, the ability to make sure that once again america is a place where anybody can make it if they try. megyn: joining me now monica crowley, radio talk show host and a fox news contributor. and tara dodell. founder of the tara dowdell group. is this tough love for something more. >> there is an american tradition of optimism. we are forward-looking front tear people. we want to believe that about ourselves and we certainly want to hear it from our president. we don't want somebody who is short of mary sunshine when things are tough. we want a president that is going to embody optimism. reagan, mourning in america. bill clinton, who was positive about the country. he's in a tough position, megyn. he has to run on a record and the record has been pretty a business malfor most americans. what he is now forced to argue to the american people going into next year is look, if has been a tough job and you need to give me another four years so i can finish the job. a lot of the american people are saying he's done enough damage and the democrats in congress have done enough damage and finishing the job is exactly what we are afraid of. megyn: she mentioned reagan. take a listen to the difference in tone. here is president reagan in part of that famous speech. >> it's morning again in america. today more men and women will go to work than ever before in our country's history. with interest rates at about half the record highs of 1980, nearly 2,00 2,000 families today will buy new homes, more than at any time in the past four years. this afternoon 6500 young men and women will be married, and with inflation at less than half of what it was just four years ago they can look forward with confidence to the future. it's morning again in america, and under the leadership of president reagan. megyn: and he went on from there. morning in america, hopeful tone. does president obama take a reus income not adopting that hopeful tone? >> well megyn you're right the president has to be very careful. monica is right to the extent that the president is in a tough situation. while there has been 20 straight months of private sector growth, for those people who have not been touched they are not feeling very hopeful right now. i think the president does need to manage expectations, because we are in a rough environment and i do think that he should call out some of those things in this country that we do need to fix. and one of the things that we need to have a bigger conversation about and the president is trying to do it, and this is what occupy wall street is talking about, during the financial crisis people made bad business decisions, and what they did was they laid off the people who had nothing to do with those decisions and then took bonuses. that's why we are seeing this growth in unemployment, and it's one of the reasons, excuse me, and also that's why we are seeing this income inequality growth. those are things we should be working to address, because guess what that is not america. megyn: tough love and identifying real problems where they exist charles krauthammer said an interesting thing. he said i think what you're showing is not tough loved but ill concealed contempt. he says there is a contempt made if not for america then for americans. >> mitt romney picked up on the theme as well. he says i think the president fund today mentally misunderstandses americans and what this nation is all about. they do have a point there. the other point is tara talks about bad business decisions, yes there certainly were some. a lot of them, actually that led to the financial crisis, but what has happened over the last three years under this president has been atrocious lee bad economic decisions that have put a huge wet pwhropbgt over the economy in this country from suffocating regulations from the epa and the nlrb to the massive big government, big spending that we've seen today. we are going to smash through $15 trillion in national debt. this president has piled on over 4 trillion in less than three years. that kind of suffocation on the economy is what is preventing economic growth. it's not that americans are lazy or that we've lost our imagination and our ambition, this president and his party have created a hostile environment to economic growth an doesn't want to answer to that. megyn: if he wants to get that message out, is he just maybe doing it piece meal as opposed to in one swell swoop. in your mom wants to sit you down and tells you you should lose 25 pounds. it's better if she sits you down and says, meg you need to lose over 25 pounds. not over weeks or months say, you look a little fat in that outfit, yeah you look a little big in the back side there. you want your dose of tough love in one spoon full and pose tiff reinforcement as you go forward. >> i think you're actually right that the president i think needs to call out the problems. at the same time he does need to say a little bit more, but i'm going to fight for you to resolve those problems. i think that's where we see some of the disconnect. people feel like he's not fighting as much. i think that is a perception that is not accurate. megyn: what do you think about charles krauthammer saying, he has contempt showing for america or americans. >> that is not true at all. megyn: people go there a lot with him, is that unfair? >> i think it's totally unfair. it's a narrative and meant to undermine him for re-election. >> remember during the campaign when he was caught on tape saying, americans cling to their guns and their religion. there does seem a constant narrative coming from this man that is sort of an elite leftist view of middle america. >> no way, not at all. >> he was talking about that quite consistently. >> there are people who responded back and said, yeah i cling to my gun and my religion, that's darn right. i've seen that on twitter, and people proudly say that. i think he was talking about a slice of americans. the bigger point is we do have problems and we are in a deep whole. when you have income equality for years that is a problem. that is not something the president created. >> he's been in office for three years. when is he going to combat it? >> there's been 20 straight months of private sector growth. is it enough? no. but is it progress? absolutely. megyn: we'll leave it on that positive note. thank you both so much. new questions today in the search for little lisa irwin. investigators coming up short after pursuing thousands of leads. in just a few minutes we will talk with robert lowry jr. of the national center for missing annex employeded children about what investigators do when the tips run out, and wait until you hear what they can do with respect to her image, among other things. and a top senator is asking tough new questions about supreme court justice elena kagan and her ability to rule on the president's healthcare law and its constitutionality. that is at the top of the hour. one michigan struggle is struggling to take care of their disabled children, their own children. they say they are being forced to pay money every month to a union that does nothing to support them. >> i think i would feel better about the whole situation if i thought that money was going to help a lot of these kids out there that need it, a hraoft the special needs kids. a lot of the special needs kids. wanna know the difference between a trader and an elite trader? 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[ male announcer ] time is running out. a new medicare plan? you only have until wednesday, december 7th to enroll. don't wait another day, call now to find out how unitedhealthcare medicare solutions may have the coverage you're looking for. i'm looking for help paying for my prescriptions. [ male announcer ] that's a part d prescription drug plan. tell us about your prescriptions and we can help you select the right plan. like a stand-alone plan, or you can combine part d and medicare supplement plans for complete coverage. is there a single plan that combines medicare parts a & b with medical and drug coverage? [ male announcer ] absolutely. a medicare advantage plan can give you doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage for nothing more than what you already pay for medicare part b. don't wait another day. you only have until december 7th to make sure you get the medicare coverage you need. call unitedhealthcare to learn about medicare plans that may be right for you. with some plans, you can enroll right over the phone. don't wait. call now. megyn: as little lisa irwin's parents move back into their home a loot of folks are wondering how active the investigation into her disappearance really is, in particular if the police are focusing on the theory that the mother or perhaps the father may have something to do with her disappearance. she was reported missing back on october 4th. since then investigators say they have pursued thousands of leads with almost nothing to show for it. it's a scenario that's happened plenty of times before. what happens now when these kinds of cases seem to go cold? joining me now executive director for the childrens division of the national center for missing annex employeded children. robert lowry jr. robert, thank you very much for being here. what do you believe the police are doing right now because they say they are pursuing all theories to track down the possibility that this baby may be out there right now in son someone's hands. >> thank you, megyn, thank you for having me on this afternoon. the police investigation probably isn't as visible as it was when lisa was first reported missing. that doesn't mean it's not as a tkpwreufs as it was from the start. there are leads that the police are following, i can't speak specifically about what is going on. there are scenarios out there that baby lisa could be alive and the public's engagement in the case has to stay focused on finding this child. megyn: how do they do that? it's like finding a need knell a haystack. if she was abducted and is out there right now, how are we the american people supposed to find her and help. >> the child's image is one of the most powerful tools. making the public aware of this child missing is one of the keys to finding the children. someone out there, in our belief knows what happened to this child, or at least has a piece of key information that can help the kansas city police and they have to stay tuned and keep their mind open, that even there has been attention on potential suspects on this case all possibilities are being considered, and until we absolutely know what happened. megyn: i say i that sometimes someone surfaces with a baby they didn't have a year ago and the baby is a year old. >> we've seen scenarios before, someone within the family unit. we don't know. the public remains the eyes and ears of law enforcement. if there has been suspicious activity, or someone has shown up with an infant with not a real good explanation we really urge that person to contact their local police and report it. that may not even be in the city of kansas city. that may be in other parts that of region. megyn: i want to show the viewers, because i know one of the things that your group works to do is age progression images. baby lisa was -- she disappeared when she was ten months old. now she is a year old. it's maybe a little unripe in this case although babies change very quickly at that age. just to show the viewers the amazing technology that you folks employ to help law enforcement. take a look a picture of sheri mahan. she was abducted back in 1985 when she was eight years old. look what the center has done for her image from 1985 to pe day what they project she would look like. here is another one. he was taken when he was six years old when walking to the school bus in new york city. an age progression for him looking a little bit older. robert the way you do this is you take the image of the baby, of the child, but you also need the images of the biological parents to do it? >> biological parents and the siblings. we need images of them when they were that same age so our artists can make comparison to the family features so we can make a rendering as to what we believe the child would look like alternate the current age this. has been a hugely successful program in the national center. we've found hundreds of children as a result of these age progressions. we fully intend on working with the kansas city police department at some point in time on age progression on lisa if that becomes necessary. megyn: as mother of a 2-year-old and a seven-year-old i can attest too this. they change dramatically in a few months. maybe a year goes by, if god forbid a year from now we still don't know what happened to this baby. we have a split screen here of jeremy irrain and deborah brad leave. take the image of lisa when she disappeared and from the family you would get a picture of the two half brothers? >> those would all be helpful. anything we can find of any family trace that would be unique to to that family that we can maybe come up with what we call a rendering of the child or composite so the public can use that if they see anyone that looks like that child. again, i think the results have been remarkable. i point to jaycee dugard. in many cases many believe the age progression redid of her of jaycee to when she was found was remarkable. megyn: what is the girl that was kept by a chapter in the back of his house and was found alive. quickly before we go. statistically, what are the odds of little lisa in your view being alive as opposed to having somebody done something with her. >> as time goes on things become more dire. you know, we don't know for certain, but there have been many scenarios megyn where we found children after many years. i point to carlina white abducted as an infant. she was found 23 years later, just this year. there are many, many satisfactory nare owes. i hate to point to statistics or speculate, but unfortunately as time goes on we do grow more concerned that the situation is dire. megyn: well you do such good work, and have helped so many families. thank you so much for coming on. we appreciate it sir. >> thank you for having me. megyn: ace mentioned they have been helping in the baby lisa case as well and will continue to. coming up next hour we'll take a look at custody battle brewing over one of lisa's half brothers. what could this mean for the investigation? "kelly's court." up next parents taking care of their own disabled children, their own children are being forced to pay money each month to a caretakers union. i kid you not. best eggs. the best in nutrition... justot better. high in vitamins d, e, and b12. plus omega 3's. there's one important ingredient that hasn't changed: better taste. better taste. yum! [ female announcer ] eggland's best. the better egg. jon: in michigan parents of disabled children are being forced to join a union. it's a caretakers union. the state argues that the parents technically are caretakers because they are caring for disabled children, their own disabled children. adding insult to injur injury they are not getting any union benefits outs of it. trace gallagher joins us live with this one. trace. >> reporter: the program was initiated, megyn back in 2006 by the then democratic governor. it says if you have disabled kids you take care of them at home and you get medicaid, you are in essence a state healthcare worker. you don't get union benefits but you still have to pay the union fees. each month a portion of the check is deducted automatically by the state and given directly to the service employees international union, or seiu. here is how the math works out. there are some 40,000 of these so-called home healthcare workers in michigan, up to $30 a month is taken directly out of their checks, that means $6 million a year goes to seiu ap annually. robert and patricia hanes how saw earlier in this. they have two children with cerebral palsy. they are not antiunion but are baffled. >> we are parents taking care of our children. the whole thing that it wasn't a choice, we were just told this is what is going to happen, period. >> reporter: well we contacted seiu, they said they would give us a comment but they have not yet given us a comment. so we did some background check and it turns out seiu, 95% of their contributions and donations go to democratic candidates and democratic causes, so if you have a disabled child in michigan, you're a republican, you still have to pay seiu that donates to the democrats. now in mitch tkpwapbt house has passed a bill to stop this. that same bill is bogged down in the senate, megyn. megyn: wow, trace, thank you. taking your thoughts on that one at kelly & fox news.com. pollster scott rasmussen now says of today president obama looks like the underdog in the 2012 presidential race. he's here in five minutes with the poll behind that headline. plus a top republican senator saying supreme court justice elena kagan held something back in her confirmation hearing and believes it could have a big impact on the debate over the president's healthcare law in a case the supreme court just agreed to take. a custody battle in the saga surrounding missing baby lisa irwin. why her father's ex-girlfriend says the irwin home is not safe in "kelly's court." >> really in the best interests of the children to try and put their -- . ... scientists, technicians, engineers, machinists... ... adding nearly 400 billion dollars to our economy... we're at work providing power to almost a quarter of our homes and businesses... ... and giving us cleaner rides to work and school... and tomorrow, we could do even more. cleaner, domestic, abundant and creating jobs now. we're america's natural gas. the smarter power, today. learn more at anga.us. it's a melt in your mouth kind of experience. 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[ john ] i'm grill master john mazany. i'm grill master adrianna hollis. and we sea food differently. megyn: fox news alert a supreme court justice who will have a vote on the president's healthcare law facing new questions about objectivity. brand-new hour here of "america live," welcome, everyone i'm megyn kelly. a justice department email from justice elena kagan's time as solicitor general enthusiastically commenting on the law's impending passage. republican senator jeff sessions who chairs the judiciary committee, actually is the republican leader i should say, wants to know why this and related emails were not revealed during kagan's confirmation hearings last year. national correspondent steve centanni has more live in washington. >> reporter: the question here is whether elena kagan had any substantial involvement in the healthcare law in devising it. if she did, federal law says she may need to recuse herself from arguments on the high court. now emails octobered by je judicial watch say that kagan privately expressed her opinion after passage of the law and may have helped organize a response anticipating later court challenges. in one email sent to scholar lawrence tribe after the healthcare law was passed kagan wrote, i hear they have the votes, larry, simply amazing. kagan is under fire from orin hatch from utah and jeff sessions saying there are serious questions that need to be answered. a letter was sent to eric holder wanting to know if other things whether elena kagan attended any meetings on the healthcare law, was asked for her opinion on the law or reviewed any relevant documents. she is not the only one facing pressure to recuse herself. clarence thomas is the target of liberals who say his wife's lobbying activity for a group owe proceedings the healthcare law disqualify him from hearing the case. this is nothing new there are often calls for justices to recuse themselves from various cases for a variety of reasons and they rarely do it. some call these latest allegations a lot of political posturing. while others say they raise serious ethical questions. megyn: when the supreme court justices say they are not going to recuse themselves, in this case, in particular thomas and kagan, when they say no, that is it. period, end of ball game. beyond the legal arguments this supreme court ruling is expected to come right as the presidential race for the white house hits full swing next year. the ruling should come down probably in june, obviously the election is in november. we're going tow have a power panel on how the court ruling could affect who becomes our next president coming up bottom of the hour. fox news alert, there has just been an arrest in a shooting at the white house, and new fears now that the suspect may be a threat to the president. police are now searching for 21-year-old oscar ortega he hernandez. i should say they just arrested him. they were searching for him a while ago. now they have arrested him. that is the update. everyone was fine, i want to point out that out. it was an attempted shooting that didn't go very far. the secret service said it heard shots fired last friday, then a day ago found bullets on the white house grounds. the president and the first lady were traveling in hawaii at the time of the shooting and police say that this man, ortega hernandez has a very long rap sheet and that he may be mentally ill with a fixation on the white house. we're getting news that he was arrested in pennsylvania. we saw -- we heard earlier that one ever the bullets hit a bulletproof window on the white house exterior, and we will have a live report on the latest on this man now being apprehended coming up in the state of pennsylvania. a new poll out today showing a large majority of americans think this country is on the wrong track. according to the latest rasmussen poll 75% of likely voters think we are headed in the wrong direction. so far no president has been reelected with that high a percentage of wrong-track results. scott rasmussen is president of rasmussen reports.com. you say this is why you believe president obama is east claimed himself an underdog when it comes to winning re-election. >> he's a slight underdog at this point in time. if those numbers don't improve by next november he'll be a heavy underdog. the thing to watch, though, is the trend. in the last few months we have seen the right direction numbers bombing out in the teens, that's as bad as they were in the closing days of the bush administration. we see things moving in the wrong direction from the president's point of view. if he can improve those numbers between now and next november he improves his chances for re-election. megyn: why is that put on the president, wrong track? because we've seen rate insurance of congress are far lower than the president's approval rating. why do we conclude that that is a reflection of how the president is doing. >> ratings are always lower for congress and the president, doesn't matter what congress and what president there is. but the president is seen as the guy in charge. and when your baseball team isn't playing well you fire the manager, and when the political team isn't doing well you fire the guy in charge. the big number really that is driving all of this is perceptions of the economy. on the day that president obama took office 35% of americans said their own finances were in good shape, that is down to 29% today, that is not the kind of change people were looking for in january of 2009. megyn: in general as someone who has been tracking the polls since this president took office, are the polls headed in the right or wrong directions for him and his reee phrebgs chancesrere-election chances. >> they have been headed in the wrong direction but have stabilized at a new point recently. the numbers worrying the president should be the economic numbers, the right direction numbers. they've got to show improvement between now and next year, because the one thing that we know for sure is that the people who right now aren't committed between a republican and president obama already think the president is doing a poor job, they just want to see if there is a better alternative presented. megyn: scott, thank you. >> thank you, megyn. megyn: another poll getting attention today, a bloomberg survey showing a four-way tie for first place in iowa between herman cain, newt gingrich, mitt romney and ron paul all within the statistical margin of error. it is raising questions about whether congressman paul could see a new campaign surge in the coming weeks. and we are joined by the texas congressman and the 2012 presidential candidate ron paul. congressman thank you so much for being here. that has to come as good news for you. many people have considered you an also ran in this race: >> we are very pleased. of course not totally surprised because our internal polls have been pretty favorable. also i have been talking about significant change in the economy and the foreign policy, and the good reception i'm getting on the campaign trail, especially with young people, i'm very pleased with the recognition that we actually a are polling so well. megyn: wrist the recognition, in particular by the mainstream media. we saw a debate the other night on foreign policy. that is a matter in which you've been very vocal. despite polls showing you creeping up in the polls with the american voters you get 89 seconds in that debate, 89. >> i wish i knew the absolute answer to that, because i'm always asked that. i'd have to say ask the people who are managing the debates on why there was this exclusion. i can postulate, sometimes they don't want to hear what i have to say, because i do challenge the status quo, the status quo of both parties and our foreign policy and the policy of the federal reserve which serves a lot of powerful special interests, so maybe there is a concerted effort to make sure these views aren't circulated too widely. megyn: i want to ask you about -- you've sort of been a watchdog financially on capitol hill for a longtime, complaining about over spending, and revenue issues from the fed on down. right now one of the lead stories today is this super committee and projections that it is headed perhaps for what the cochair described as possible abject failure. you believe even if they achieve big success it's going to be, quote, p u.n. y, the cuts they make and it's like teaspoons in the ocean. tell us. >> yeah, from my viewpoint they are not really talking about cuts. my proposal is to cut a trillion dollars of real cuts in the first year. they are talking about cutting a trillion dollars every ten years and they are only talking about cutting proposed increases from the baseline. those aren't real cuts. i think there are two things, one is they don't want to admit the country is bankrupt and there is not a strong necessity for us to do something. and the other thing is that they won't consider changing policy. see you can't tinker around the edges and get rid of waste and fraud in a program here or there. you have to decide what the roll of government ought to be, should the government be the place men of the record and should our government be passing out welfare from cradle to grave? i don't think we can afford it and i don't think that's what it was designed for. as a country basically a lot of people still, as well as the politicians here, they are in denial. they don't realize we are technically bankrupt. we are insolvent. we can't pay the bills. the only thing that keeps us going is it illusion that our dollars will last forever and all we have to do is create new money, pay the bills and bail out european everybody else. that is coming to an end and that's what our financial crisis is telling us. megyn: you know who is not bankrupt, nancy pelosi. she and her husband are worth tense of millions of dollars. there was a 60 minutes report and it's catching fire in the midstream as well on how members of congress, including not just nancy pelosi but they profiled john boehner as well the republican leader they are not subjected to the same insider trading regulations as the rest of the world is. john boehner investing in shares before it was announced the public option had been actioned. and he made a bunch of number. and pelosi made a lot of money when she had information that visa was going to come out smelling like a rose. should members of congress be allowed to do this. sir. >> they shouldn't do it obviously because it's unethical. i'm not positive that the members of congress aren't under the laws. if you commit fraud and inside trading i can't see where in the law it's written, except for congressmen. maybe the enforcement is there is an exception in there, but it's wrong, and the real correction for this is having only ethical people in government, rather than those that go with the whims of the lobbyists. when you enrich yourself by a position in government that is pretty bad, and objec obviously the people have a right to know about it and a right to react to it. and if they are breaking the law they should be punished. megyn: ron paul, always a pleasure speaking with you sir, thanks for being here. >> thank you, megyn. megyn: we have breaking news on this shooting that hit the exterior of the white house. an arrest has been made and we'll have a live report for you next. plus, the u.s. supreme court is expected to rule on the president's healthcare law right as the presidential race hits full swing, next year. it will come down likely in skwraoufpblt jusin june. just ahead we have a power panel on how that court ruling could affect who becomes our next president. a custody battle unfolding in the case of missing baby lisa irwin. is someone unfairly targeting this baby's parents, kicking them when they are down? that is on the docket in "kelly's court." >> it's despicable to see a lady who hasn't seen her son in six years, who has been six years behind in child support all of a sudden claim to have an interest. megyn: fox news alert, an arrest has just been made following a shooting at the white house, on the exterior. this comes as two bullets were found outside of the white house and one of those may have hit a window of the first family's residence on the second floor, a bullet-proof window. wendell goler live at the white house with more. what have we learned. >> reporter: megyn police picked up the suspect, oscar ortega hernandez about an hour and a half ago, hour and 45 minutes ago at a hotel outside of indiana, pennsylvania which is in the west central part of the state. unclear whether he was going to there or headed through there. you can't run very long with national alert looking for you, put out by the tphao*eu f.b.i. and the secret service. the slugs found yesterday really confirm to police that the white house was the target of the shooting which occurred on friday, though, they have not yet been matched to the assault rifle ballistically. police found a car on friday near the white house, that led them to suspect the suspect, a 21-year-old with ties to idaho. they had been looking for him since then, and as i said, there was an arrest warrant put out for him. now, this man was actually in police custody early on friday when he was picked up in virginia across the potomoc river for loitering. police had no cause to arrest him, then they released him. once again they have put him back in custody now. found about an hour and 45 minutes ago in pennsylvania and charged with shooting at the white house. megyn. megyn: wendell, thank you. brand-new poll out from the first in the nation primary state of new hampshire. this one focuses on a theoretical match up between room rom and president obama. it shows a super tight race. while mitt romney leads the president by 10% average points. look at that, 50% for romney. 40% for mr. obama, that is still within the margin of error. making it too close to call. is that within the margin of error? what is the margin offer ear? 5.5. it's not within the margin of error. i don't know why we're saying that. it's not within the margin of error. in any event it shows romney leading the president by 10 minutes. why does it feel like people are so focused on the rest of the gop candidates? michael reagan is the chairman of the reagan group, reagan.com and a political consultant. michael, this is fascinating to me. the republicans keep looking for someone else, the other guy, the anti-romney, and whether it was rick perry who then sunk in the polls, herman cain who is in a downward trajectory. newt gingrich who is getting attacked for his personal issues and so one. they continue to look past mitt romney, why and should they? >> the thing is that everybody knows mitt romney. there is nothing knew about mitt romney. he's been running for president, what for six or seven years at this point in time. there is nothing really new. mitt romney, you know, really if he wants to move up i would suggest to him start reaching out to the conservatives within your own party. that's what he needs to do. so you have conservatives right now looking for that one person up against mitt romney because they've always had trouble with mitt romney since he was governor of massachusetts, romney care if you will, and the christian community has always had a problem with the fact that he is mormon. they've been a taught for years that is a cult and they don't want somebody who is a cult member in the white house. what the christian community needs to do is really get their heads out of their you know what and start looking to elect a president, not a pastor. megyn: do you see similarities between mitt romney and ronald reagan? >> there is a lot of similarities. if i just share one story with you. i remember during the whole donald reagan situation in my father's administration he was invited, a very well known pastor was invited to the white house to talk to my father about getting rid of donald reagan. this pastor said to my father, listen if you want to save your presidency, you need to get rid of donald reagan. my father said this, he said listen i promise not to tell what you to preach on sunday morning if you promise not to tell me how to run the presidency of the united states of america. the pastor left the next morning after spending the night. they remained friends for the rest of my father's life, of course, but that's what it's all about. it's about the president seif the united states, not a pastor. i think mitt romney is doing a fine job, as far as running for president, but he needs to think about the primaries and winning the primaries not only in iowa, new hampshire but south carolina and what have you. and the conservatives if they really want to beat back mitt romney, they have to pick the horse they wanted to get on right now and get behind that horse, otherwise mitt romney will be the nominee. megyn: michael, why does mitt romney, although he's said to be very economy, that he's obviously a smooth debater, but why is it that he doesn't connect with voters the way someone like herman cain does, or -- or others do. >> i think i was saying to you last week he relet's to the guy who owns the water cooler but he doesn't relate to the guy who takes water from it. he really doesn't. herman cain loves being with people. ronald reagan loved being with people. you used to have to drag him out of the room. you have to drag herman cain out of the room. you don't have to drag mitt romney out of the room he's looking for the door out the moment he walks into that room. he's got to learn to relate to the people in that room and want to be with them. ronald tkpwaeug and related to you no matter where you were at. megyn: can you learn that? is that something you can fake or be taught, or pick up for election purposes? >> it's hard to learn, but if mitt romney wants to go further he has to learn to listen to understand that side of it. it's tough. i mean it was in ronald reagan's core values, it's in herman cain's core values also. but he's not the only one who has trouble when he walks into a room looking for the door out of the room. the most comfortable right now is herman cain. maybe rick santorum is comfortable in the room, but mitt romney if he wants to go further needs to start relating to the people at the water cooler, not the people who own it. megyn: interesting. there was an interesting piece talking about how even though conservatives would prefer a different candidate saying that, quote, we must rally behind romney, because he is sort of the next wave of what was once called reagan republicans that are a little different. michael, thank you so much for being here. always a pleasure, sir. coming up a healthcare panel that will discuss whether the supreme court ruling on the healthcare law will help or hurt the president in his re-election battle. [ female announcer ] find yourself sometimes cleaning up after your dishcloth? in this lab test bounty extra soft leaves this surface three times cleaner than a dishcloth. super clean. super soft. bounty extra soft. in the pink pack. but think about your heart. 2% has over half the saturated fat of whole milk. want to cut back on fat and not compromisen taste? try smart balance fat free milk. it's what you'd expect from the folks at smart balance. insurance ... but afraid you can't afford it? well, look how much insurance many people can get through selectquote for less than a dollar a day. selectquote found, rich, 37, a $500,000 policy for megyn: the margin offer ear they are saying is 5.5% of that poll which means president obama is at 40 but he could be at 45.5 and mitt romney is at 50 but he could also be at, now, whatever the math is. in any event, that is why they are saying it's within the margin of error. basically this poll may mean next to nothing. moving on. the feds calling for major reforms in the wake of the mf global collapse. the investment firm headed by john corzine went belly-up last month after risking european bonds. they are trying to find about $600 million in customer funds. how on earth did this happen? eric bolling is the anchor of follow the money on the fox business network, cohost of the 5. eric how did this happen? you're talking $600 million that is missing. >> reporter: right, megyn. among banks on wall street around the world there are two different businesses there is a proprietary trading business, the pool of money that the bank owns themselves, the bank's money. there are customer businesses. customer accounts, if one of us was to open an account within the bank. same thing with mf global. they were in a specialty business where the customers were smaller traders around the world. it's the customer money the traders. the bank lost $2.5 billion trading greek debt. horrible trading from insider friends of mine involved in the business. john corzine was calling the shots on a lot of the bets. he was wrong on those. the problem is when they started to use the customer funds to payoff or margin those bets on greek debt there in lies the problem they are not allowed to do that. it's called segregating the customer's funds from the bank's funds. they allegedly used that money. the $64,000 question or $600 million question is where is the money? did they lose it, which means it's gone, poof, sorry, customers you probably have no recourse or have they just posted it of kind of, we are good for this bet over in some bank, it could be in a bank in china, in australia, somewhere sitting in an account under mb global. from personal experience i was given a economic to be drawn and an mf global. it bounced. it is gone. it appears for now that money will be tied up for a longtime if not gone completely. megyn: to over simplify it it's as if my nanny says to me i want to keep some money in your account. i say no problem, i'll put in it my account, i won't touch it. my husband and i fall short on other bills, oh, we'll dip into our nanny's money and she won't know. she wants her money back and we say it's not there, we spent it. or we say don't worry we can find it, reingested it some place. even dipping into the nanny's money as mf global, dipping into the customers accounts, whether they can repay the mourn not is a no-no. >> that's a no-no it breaks the cardinal rule of segregating customer accounts. clearly against the rules and regulations. whether it's criminal or not it depends on whether or not john corzine said hey rest of the board, or whoever the managers i want to do this regardless of what you're telling me. he hey actually be criminal in what he's done, the way i understand it. but, again, the way i understand it john corzine, again this was the governor. at one point he ran goldman sachs, he spent his personal fortune becoming the governor of new jersey before chris christie. he's had experience, it's not like he didn't know what he was doing here. so it stings, and unfortunately the $600 million, at least missing. megyn: wow, eric, thank you. >> you're welcome, megyn. megyn: you can catcher i can on follow the money airing monday through wednesday and friday nights at 10:00pm eastern only on the fox business network and catch him on the 5 as well right here on nfc. he's a busy man is the point. is president obama challenging the chinese military? what a new military presence overseas means to the relationship of america and china we're live at pentagon. you've seen your share of protests against president obama's healthcare law? can you imagine the political fallout if the supreme court settles the issue once and for all? i shouldn't say if, i should say when. they are going to rule on this law as early as -- well no later than june. what is that going to do to presidential politics? 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just select gold plus rewards in your profile and start rewarding yourself now. just go to hertzgoldplusrewards.com to join. hertz gold plus rewards. journey on. megyn: new questions about whether president obama is mounting a new challenge to china's military. our commander-in-chief rolling out a new plan to boost our military presence in australia, basing marines in the backyard of the communist country. national security correspondent jennifer griffin has a look at this one live from the pentagon. jennifer? >> reporter: megyn, the 2500 marines will be placed in northern australia in darwin, about 500 miles from indonesia. the president described the positioning of those marines as significant during a press conference with the australian prime minister today. he pushed back on the idea that china should feel threatened. >> we welcome a rising peaceful china. the notion that we fear china is, is mistaken. the notion that we are looking to exclude china is mistaken. >> reporter: the president's national security aides described the marine presence as a force multiplier. they will train asian and allied militaries and significant number of u.s. warplanes will be there a sign that the marines leave the middle east, asia's growing importance. china's foreign ministry described the decision as misguided. the president says china needs to behave responsibly as a world power. the reference to its attempt to claim territory in asia that the u.s. considers international waters. >> it is important for them to play by the rules of the road and in fact, help underwrite the rules that have allowed so much remarkable economic progress to be made over the last several decades. >> reporter: the president's national security team says this asia presence will be immune from any budget cuts on capitol hill. the pentagon press secretary george little saying just moments ago saying we will remain a pacific power. megyn? megyn: jennifer, thank you. high-stakes in the high court. could the u.s. supreme court decision on president obama's health care law determine who our next president is? the case will be argued in march. a ruling is expected by june 2012. right dab in the middle of what is sure to be a very heated presidential race. so who will that help and who will it hurt? sally cone is founder of movement vision.org. fox news contributor doug schoen is a former pollster for president clinton and david webb is host of the david webb show on sirius xm and cofounder of the tea party patriots. the white house did not object to thing not going another layer at the 11th circuit court of appeals. they could have asked for the full 11th circuit where they lost to review one more time before it went up to delay but it didn't. tell me, sally, as a democrat do you think president obama believes either way, win or lose the decision could help him? >> first of all all indications they are going to prevail, that the mandate is constitutional. beyond that it puts issue of health care front and center back on the conversation national table. megyn: does he want that? it was so devisive. >> he actually cared there are 36 million uninsured americans and everyone else suffering from declining care and rising cost. he did something about it. that helps him. megyn: what do you think, doug, that is such a devisive issue? >> i think they see it as a no-lose situation. if the individual mandate in the bill is ruled unconstitution that i think it will mobilize a base at this point is not fire up at all. and if it is ruled constitutional, it will only but help the public support for the bill, helping them mobilize their constituency. that is why i don't think they went for full 11th circuit review. megyn: let me go another possibility, david. is it possible the white house believes if it is struck down, unconstitutional takes it off the table, such a devisive issue, takes it off the table as a club for the republicans to beat obama over the head with, president obama? if they rule constitutional he wins and can say i have the blessing of u.s. supreme court. >> if you believe in short term memory which americans have politically. if we get a ruling in june or july. megyn: i think i remember. >> we look what potentially will happen in the supreme court. they will rule on constitutionality. on severability which is the big part of this. megyn: drop the mandate does the whole law fail. >> drop the mandate does the whole law fail. they decided to take it up on the argument that the president obama and administration on one rule is it a tax. can you tax americans when it comes to medicare and medicaid. the problem for this for him, independents especially who are going to decide the election are not in favor of this law. when you break that down into polling even further it is broken down by taxpayer and socioeconomic status. those who are typically receiving more services, more entitlements, more care on his side but majority of the independents and center-right nation looking at it as government intrusion, big overreach of government and not, by the way not health care reform in both sense. megyn: i want to get you to sally, i want to ask doug first as a pollster. have the american people changed their minds on health care law. >> not really. it is divisive. they're skewed 50 against, 40 in favor, 10 in the middle. david is basically right. those against are against. but i think the obama administration figures either way, their constituency will be mobilize which is to the good. megyn: is that the key, sally? somebody wants to see president obama win another term do you think it is better mobilize the base at risk of alienating independents who the president needs to get reelected. >> yeah i don't necessarily think, certainly has to re-energize the base. let's be clear a lot of folks in his base including myself have not been thoroughly pleased with the president's performance and could have been a bolder leader including on health care reform. he certainly has to speak to that he has to speak to independents indeed. i wouldn't paint the picture quite as bleakly. a lot of independents, support to do something about health care reform was huge. when you actually go you there the elements of the reform bill, the reform law, people are widely supportive. so, again, sort of has to do with how this comes out. i trust the president doing a good job selling it to the public. the other interesting element what this does to republican candidate. fact matter if the law is upheld that puts republican nominee siding with the supreme court and against the tea party or side with the tea party and against the supreme court and -- >> they will side with the tea party. >> but that is awkward position for someone who wants to lead our country. >> that sound really great for a talking point but here's the reality. we needed health care reform incrementally both health insurance reform and health care delivery reform. we got neither with obamacare. what we got, considering we have a lack of doctors, about 380,000 short --. megyn: i don't want to get back into arguing merits of the law. >> my point is, americans look at this and go, can you not reform the system, throw more people into it? very kitchen table issue. that is what americans are looking at. megyn: hear is the truth though. if the u.s. supreme court upholds the law, that doesn't mean the law stays in place. if you get republican president, he could do what these republicans are promising to do. >> also -- >> sought to do. bottom line -- this issue isn't going away. the obama administration decided it is going to help them in the election. opinion is pretty firm against the bill and they figured that they could help themselves whatever the result. megyn: it is fascinating. they have set the schedule. we will have a decision by end of the june of the just in time for the summer. voters know they're voting on a president two years before this law even goes into effect. part of it will be how the candidates set up a law that hasn't even gone into effect yet. megyn: my head is spinning. >> should see a doctor. megyn: thank you for that. i'm still reeling about the poll, the margin error. 40 and 50, and you have a 5% margin of error means the poll is meaningless. >> thank you. you need another poll. megyn: sorry, doug, i object. not your poll but i object. new developments in the custody battle unfolding in the baby lisa case. is someone unfairly targeting this family? what we just learned in kelly's court next. >> take your megyn: congress working to put a stop to million dollar bonuses to fannie mae and freddie mac executives. both ceos of the government controlled mortgage giants testified before a house committee today and defended their earnings. the government found 12 executives at firms received multimillion-dollar pay packages. taxpayers spent 180 billion bucks to bail out these two and this month a request was made for billions more. con on the docket today, custody battle over baby lisa irwin's half-brother. 1-year-old lisa vanished more than six weeks ago from their family home. we learned biological mother of one of lisa's half-brothers wants him removed from the irwin family home says he fears for his safety. does she have a case? joining me fox news analyst mercedes colwin and former defense attorney, jonna spilbor. how will she make the case? >> she is biological mother and circumstances changed. let's focus on the irwin family. the disappearance of lisa is unknown. no leads. cadaver dogs picked up the scent. deborah bradley changed the timeline. said she has seen the child hours after she put the child to bed at 6:0. we learned she was so drunk and blacked out. didn't know the circumstances. biological mother says hey i have to save my child. i wanted to be part of his life the last six years but he, irwin, didn't let me see my son. for years he alienated my child. she will sit there with the timeline what happened with baby lisa and make her strongest case against her. megyn: jonna, from all indications we're getting from the irwin family lawyer, this is not a good mother that we're talking about. >> no. megyn: and i don't mean deborah bradley. the woman suing for custody blake. >> biological mom. i spend a lot of time in family court. you have to be a terrible mother to lose custody of your child. megyn: all together she lost it. >> all together. dad has sole custody and from what i have read the mother hasn't even bothered to exercise visitation with her child. for all intents and purposes she is stranger to the little boy. to come and say there is emergency reason to remove him from his home like a pair of shoes put him in another home makes absolutely no sense and will not work. megyn: mercedes we're being told by family, representatives of the family, biological mother of 8-year-old brother, lisa's half-brother, not only did she lose custody of the child, six years ago, he is only eight, didn't bother to show up to the custody hearing. didn't bother to show up. hasn't paid any child support in years. at least $10,000 in arrears. doesn't support him in any way. basically walked away from her parental rights from a to z. on earth can she swoop in at 11th hour and want him. >> she will say best interest of my son. his physical safety is in peril. we don't know what happened with baby lisa. we know the biological father left with deborah bradley who is a drunk. drank excessively. who doesn't know what happened. she will hang tight on best interests of the child which is basis for trying to change. megyn: that is the thing. we don't know how this mother's situation has changed but could she go into courtroom and say, the woman who is now supposed to be taking care of my son has admitted to being passed out or possibly blacked out drunk. does it couple times a week she said. gets that way when she is the sole caretaker of my son, another child and 10-month-old girl who wound up going missing thanks to that negligence? that is how she will argue it. could that potentially be persuasive to a family court judge? >> probably not. what it could persuade a judge to do, all right, maybe we need supervision in the household where the child already is instead of removing a child. listen, you guys, judges often don't have to i pick between two perfect parents in family court. they're trying to find somebody not in rehab and operate a microwave oven to take care of children. sad to say. megyn:. >> true. >> if they're in family court they're there because you can't agree with the other parent how to raise your child. that is why court intervention is necessary. megyn: let me ask you this. is it possible if the custody battle unfolds, she goes forward with this, the judge in this case could compel testimony from jeremy irwin or deborah bradley about the baby lisa case, mercedes? >> absolutely. megyn: not talking to the cops but could be compelled in family court? >> that is great, great point. the judge can have a full hearing. ultimately if they can't resolve it they will have a judicial hearing officer trying to work out the conditions of this custody issue. but if it doesn't, it is a fuel hearing and testimony is compelled. now the interesting thing, if bradley and irwin say i take the fifth on some of those difficult questions, that was very damning for a future if there is any prosecution in the future. megyn: john that, -- jonna, what are they supposed to do? i'm sure they want to fight. lawyers tell them not to talk to police. will you tell them to talk to a judge under oath in a family court case? >> i seriously doubt it. that means their lips will have to be sealed which could eventually hurt them. lesser of two evils, fight in family court perhaps incriminate themselves or not and get incriminated in criminal court? megyn: coming up next we'll talk about bears in the suburbs that is the reason they're telling us i need to wrap right now. panel thank you. we'll be right back. for a hot dog cart. my mother said, "well, maybe we ought to buy this hot dog cart and set it up someplace." so my parents went to bank of america. they met with the branch manager and they said, "look, we've got this little hot dog cart, , [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus presents: the cold truth. i habe a cohd. and i toog nyguil bud i'm stild stubbed up. 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[ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus liquid gels. ♪ oh what a relief it is! ♪ ♪ . megyn: nice. lots of suburbannites getting used to new neighbors, bears, big ones, moving into communities. they apparently did not venture near before. and becoming part of the landscape. jonathan serrie has that story live in atlanta. hey, jonathan. >> reporter: hi, there. what is going on out in the wilderness the bear population is expanding. so misdemeanor of them are venturing into the suburbs in search of easy food. when john mccormick installed this outdoor camera to observe wildlife in his suburban atlanta yard, this is what he found. >> sort of shocked me a bit. >> reporter: suburban bear sightings are up nationwide. although licensed bear hunt something actually increased in recent years it is regulated. a combination of game law enforcement and changing attitudes has dramatically reduced the unregulated killing of bears over the past four decades. according to georgia wildlife biologist adam hammond. >> certainly in the past bears were considered a varmint and killed sort of at will when ever they were encountered. >> reporter: as bears increasing number out here in the wilderness they're expanding their range in search of food which is readily available in the suburbs in the form of trash, bird seed and pet food. experts say hunting may slow down but not prevent the spread of bears into residential areas which is fine by this suburbannite? >> probably fun to watch. pretty animals. >> reporter: as long as they're just passing through bottom line, if you don't want the bears to hang around your house, bring your trash and dog food indoors. megyn? megyn: before i let you go, you want to take a little wager here whether shepard smith wilt run this story today? >> reporter: i would bet my life savings he will use the trampoline shot. megyn: not taking other side of that. that was the side i wanted. we both agree. we'll tune in at 3:00 p.m. thank you, sir. the feds arresting a suspected gunman moments ago linked to a shooting at the white house. the latest on this developing story just ahead. 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