Well get the very latest from inside the beltway. A lot of machinations still going on well keep you uptodate. Keep it right here. Liz jpmorgan had a great day. The ceo, jamie dimon, agreed to a 100 million settlement with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission over the wrongaway trade in the london whale scandal. Overall jpmorgan has paid out more than one billion dollars in penalties over the whale mess. David the stock is up 3 . Investors like that move. Shares of bank of america rose after reported surge in Third Quarter earnings but revenue was lower than wall street analysts liz pepsico stock on the rise. They reported higher quarterly profit saying it is on track to meet its financial targets for the entire year. David homebuilder sent fell slightly this month. National association of homebuilders gridlock in washington. That could change. They were blaming higher costs for construction companies. Liz billionaire Warren Buffett on acquisition trail. Berkshire hathaway buying up british vending machine maker imi from over 1 billion. Business is happening right now. Were here, in d. C. , were everywhere. After the bell starts right now. David so lets get right to todays huge market action. We have david miller. He is Catalyst Fund chief investment officer. Were pleased to have him her. Ben willis on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange where the action is as well as the pits of the cme thats where we find our friend todd horowitz. Todd, i want to start with you, is everybody ecstatic there as they are on wall street . Excuse me. David is everybody at the cme in the middle of the country as ecstatic as traders on wall street are . I think so. You see by the action, the tape action the last few days, everybody knew they would get a deal done. Vix told us that, the market told us that, the action told us that. Here we are, we got a deal done. Still have a final vote. The market is up near the highs right now. Liz we have to get adam shapiro right now. We have American Express numbers. Its a healthy beat of the earnings per share 1. 25. The street was expecting 1. 22 dal. Revenue 8. 3 billion. The street was expecting 8. 1 b in the Second Quarter card member spending was up 7 00 but in this quarter it was up with 12 . U. S. Third quarter net income, 782 million. This is a pretty good report from them. From the ceo, despite uncertain environment we generated healthy increase in revenue and stronger card member spending across all regions this quarter. Liz he can say that but the stock is not doing too much at the moment as we see. It close to its closing value. Just slightly higher. Well be watch energy again. Its a widelyheld stock. Its a dow component, beating top and bottom line. You rightly point out, card members looking healthy at moment of. David. David todd what is encouraging about the American Express report the revenue was a beat as well. Very boosten we beat on the bottom line. Not so on the top line. That shows people are out there buying. This figures as i said this morning i thought Credit Card Companies i think they will all beat on the top line as well. Theyre a little bit different. They have people who getting money through credit cards. They are spending there. That was a very good beat for them. Liz ben willis, American Express is sort of a proxy for the higher end consumer is it not . As we put that point right out there talk about the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The price action today which was very dramatic. We ended up closing very close to the highs of the session. What does that tell you . First red ive seen all day is your beautiful hair on there. Liz thank you. So you, know, its a great number but again, you have to view this in my opinion as a proxy vote to washington to say we fully expected you to get this done and the tape is showing that. The downward pressure weve seen prior to this has all been professional traders and professional Money Managers david ben, i will hold you right there we have ibm earnings. Go ahead, joe. David, actually adam. Earnings per share is beat. Miss on revenue. Earnings per share, 3. 99. Street was expecting 3. 96. Revenue, 23. 7 billion. That is the sixth straight quarter of declines in revenue for ibm. They were expecting 24. 7 from the street the stock is trading down aftermarket. That is sick quarters in a row they missed or declines in revenue. David. David i want to go back to todd. The stock is going down significantly. Ended the day, todd, at 186. 73. It is now 111. Do you think it will stay there tomorrow . Looks like it is going lower. Ibm made a 52week low already. It has not participated in any of this rally. One of the biggest bellwethers is struggling. I think eventually the market will start to struggle here as well. Liz ben, looking at this number here, the stock is moving lower but the ceo is saying she remains confident in ability to achieve. David this has been a promise for them for a while, earnings of 20 a share per operating eps in 2015. I dont know where she is going to get that in just a couple of years. What do you think . Oh, they have, they were a bellwether for quite a while and they seemed to have lost some traction quite frankly. What im cautious about we started earlier this was a spike to the upside in a proxy vote to washington but now the market will go back to trading on earnings. When a bellwether like ibm misses like this, tomorrow doesnt set up for a very pretty day unless it can get cover from some other big names on earnings. David david, weve been talking a lot about washington, d. C. , about the politicians inside the beltway. Talk about the fed officials inside the beltway for a moment. Because it sure looks to me, anyway, as you notice, the market, yes there were big down days, triple digit down days but there was no market panic about either a default or any Business Inside the beltway. There is panic one way or the other when youre talking about the fed. Isnt the fed weighing more heavily on peoples mind than these debt or budget talks . David, i think the issue is the fed doesnt really have a choice here. The fed needs to do what they have to do because the economic numbers are not good enough for them to stop tapering. I think there is pretty clear indication what bernanke said at the last he was not stopping tapering he will not initiate the tapering. Give you a percent for todays figures. Today we had a gain over 200 points. The dow ended over 200 points. How much was due to budget resolution, debt resolution, how much was due to really anxiousness or belief, hope if you will, that the fed will just keep printing money . At this point i dont really think its a hope they will keep printing money. I think bernanke made it pretty clear. I think yellen has to keep it up. They have to keep pushing steroid into the market to keep stocks up an economy going. The numbers are just not good enough for Economic Growth for us not to, put that there. There is just too much that could happen if they started tapering too soon. Liz todd, you have been right on many sort of occasions we put you in the position to predict. Do we sell on the news if theres a deal . What do you expect the markets to do . We had a couple great days interspersed with a few tough days. What happens, if a deal cops through . I think this could be maybe one of the greatest selling opportunities ever. I think were seeing it again with ibm. Were seeing a lack of growth. Were seeing the artificial stimulation of our market that at some point were up on air mattress. They keep blowing us up higher there is nothing underneath. We have no foundation to hold these levels i you definitely sell the news. If you do that, you have a put a stop above if the market blows through. I think this is great selling opportunity. I for one will look to sell the market es special after the news. Liz can i say air mattresses are big in manhattan. Nobody has any says. I hear what youre saying. That is david, exactly what i was looking at where you say may be that may be that selling moment. David you have to have the stops and losses in there. We talked about that before with todd. David, one thing youre look at we should still consider is company trading, inside trading. And in fact, not Insider Trading but trading of those who are holding positions in the company. Several stocks that have piqued your interest with regard to insider buys. I want to talk about freeportmcmoran. They are dealing with gold and silver. Gold and silver have been kicked around mercilessly last couple weeks. You think insider buying may indicate it is time to buy into that company . There is very dramatic insider buying into freeportmcmoran. They had 50 million in insider buying past couple months. Two executives individually there who purchased over 20 million worth of stock. Another director that made a significant purchase. Stock was only trading nine times earnings. They have already rallied a good bit following those insider purchases but david you cant ignore the price of gold, can you, david . It is dropping like a stone . I think that is issue. Weve seen insider buying in metals and Energy Companies because those areas of the market have probably gotten too cheap and selling in technology which reflects what happened in ibm today. Liz david, thank you for joining us. David miller. Thanks to ben willis and todd horowitz. Thank you both. Have lawmakers pulled a bipartisan victory out of the jaws of defeat . We dont know for sure. What well do is take you live to washington for the very latest as members of Congress Rush to seal the deal on their budget and debt compromise. David well be asking two of those lawmakers are representative john fleming, he by the way is also a medical doctor. Republican and representative jared polis, democrat, whether this deal will stick. Liz and we want to know what you think about all of this high drama as it relates to your money. Are you confident enough in this d. C. Deal to jump into the rally or do you want to wait as todd predicts there might be a selloff and then go in . Go to facebook. Com afterthebell. We would love to hear from you. Well be back in a moment. [ male announcer ] once, there was a man who found a magic seashell. It told him what was happening on the tradg floor in real time. The shell brought him great fame. But then, one day, he noticed that everybody could have a magic seashell. 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Available as an oral rinse, toothpaste, spray or gel, biotene can provide soothing relief, and it helps keep your mouth healthy, too. Remember, while your medication is doing you good, a dry mouth isnt. Biotene for people who suffer from dry mouth. David were just looking here, shares of ibm are down afterhours following a big miss on earnings. Head back to Nicole Petallides on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. For details, nicole. Were looking at ibm it is falling afterhours. It is under pressure. Ibm the big miss is on the revenue. There you go, starting off with earnings per share as we always do. That came in at 3. 99 versus the estimates of 3. 96. So that was the good news. However, it was the revenue numbers that came in light and that is what traders are looking at right now. So revenue, 23. 72 billion versus the estimate of 24. 75 billion. So you can see here a very light and the closing value of 186 and change, the bid is now in 177 range which is not good news there for this dow component. So which have to continue to follow this one but obviously a big miss here and that will weigh on the dow tomorrow. David ouch. They took it on the chin today. Nicole petallides, thank you very much. Thank you, nicole. So the senate will vote soon on its 11th hour deal to avoid u. S. Default. But the big question remains will the deal get approved bit house as well . David joining us for information, specific, latebreaking republican representative john fleming of louisiana. A medical doctor. And representative jared polis of colorado. Good to see you. Breaking news were hearing from our own representatives inside the beltway seems there are enough votes in the house to make this thing work. Dr. Fleming, i will go to you first. Do you think the votes are there . I believe they are, david. I believe that democrats willfully support this bill. I think that there will be enough republicans to support it. I will personally not support, will not vote for it but david let me ask you, that dr. Fleming. Forgive me for interrupting. I know there is too much in television. I understand, you by the way, you were the mention the louisiana Family Doctor of the year in 2007. You know medicine extremely well. Not only know it personally as doctor but hearing it from all your patients. I know how committed you are against the obamacare as it stands but was it worth shutting down the government in order to prove that point . All i can tell you, david, is my district, my constituents say theyre very much behind what ive been doing, what our caucus has been doing. They are being very supportive. They see that the shutdown is not a good thing but on the other hand they feel like the dangers of obamacare, killing jobs, having skyrocketing premiums and all the other things that were seeing data platform, et cetera, rolling out, that is far worse. So that is what they have demanded that i do. So im up here working for my constituents. Liz you know, representative police, i tell you what constituents start to believe in money when they see the markets fall and see their 401 k s and 529s fall. Obviously somebody woke up and you cant get to that point. What happens, looking ahead because there is Bipartisan Committee by december 15th i believe it is to get together to come up with cutting. Where would the democrats give in . In a way you have to give them a little bit of a fig leaf correct . I think what happened here, the business community, as you mentioned investors, really help wake up at least enough republicans to help democrats govern responsibly, which would with split government we can only do together. I think this is example of how we can do together. Before we get too excited about this we have to realize this didnt exactly accomplish anything. Were right back where we started. We still have a very serious budget discussions. Discussions how to restore fiscal integrity to Social Security around medicare. Frankly i think the shutdown delayed all those important discussions but liz where would democrats give an inch . I think everything is on the table. I think the president s position was, he didnt want to have a negotiation under the threat or under a government closure. Now the governments reopened of the certainly the president and his budget had some entitlement reforms. Many House Democrats including members of our probusiness new Democratic Coalition put everything on the table. Talk about tax reform, lowering rates, broadening the base, talk about reforming and restoring the integrity of our entightment programs. I think Many Democrats are willing to engage in the discussion with likeminded republicans. David dr. Fleming, i would argue if it is not a total win for democrats because were not back to square one. Because the American People have been is lening and watching and American People count for something and their Information Base has particularly grown of obamacare as it was rolling out the past two weeks. Do you think the attention that has been put on obamacare by republicans, maybe they lost this battle, but did they win the war about obamacare . I think quite possibly youre right. David, what were seeing is, that this thing ended in a stalemate as you pointed out. The budget caps and sequestration did not get busted. Theyre still there. That is something that democrats i think would like to do something about. Obamacare was not taken out. And that is something of course we would like to do. With each passing day, sequestration is embraced by the American People. With each passing day, obamacare i think will be more despised by the American People as they experience it personally and as they lose their jobs and see their premiums skyrocket. Liz let me jump in there and give sort of a fair and balanced picture. Representative polis, there are some Small Businesses who are betting hammered by the sequestration, ones that served t isrnment in all different services, for certain departments of the u. S. Government, they havent been paid since july. Well i think real question why if this is a stalemate and Neither Party gains, why the House Republicans in particular and some of the Senate Republicans chose to take us down this reckless bronco ride weve been on the last few weeks. We are back where we started. Yes sequestration still exists. If we can replace some shortterm cuts with a plan for fiscal sustainability and reforming our entitlement programs we middle east be able to liz i would also say this, representative, the world didnt stop spinning on its axis, when we endured sequestration. So doesnt that indicate that there are ways to, slice back some of the spending, if so where . We are still in sequestration to be clear. Liz yes. The Government Shutdown is a much larger drag on economy. Quite possible well have sequestration indefinitely. That is certainly part of the discussion. Frankly would i say that is probably the most likely scenario that sequestration, budget levels david dr. Fleming, as we were forced or as you guys were forced, the president was forced to decide what was essential and what was nonessential, when you see that, say, 80 of the Commerce Department is deemed nonessential, maybe we should rethink whether the Commerce Department is essential. Well, think about it epa, 93 of their employees were found to be nonessential. Look, we could cutaway back and take out certain departments. I do want to address one thing. Both side understand that we need to deal with entitlement spending. That has to be reformed. Both side agree we cant do anything more in terms of cutting our discretionary spending. The problem is, that the other side will not work with us. They talk to all of these platitudes about entitlements but never actually do anything. That is not true. I mean the president actually included in his budget but always backs away on the goalposts. He put it out there. Lets see what ideas you have. Liz something tells me this conversation you have, once you say goodbye. Were thrilled to have you both and love to have that happen. Thank you very much. Thank you. Liz Scott Fleming and representative jared polis. That is what we like to see. We did this a lot during tarp issue. David it does appear a deal has been struck. Even though dr. Fleming says he will vote against it, there are enough votes on republican side to pass it. It appears the impasse is over. Liz to get the specific story up to the second were going live to rich edson on capitol hill just as soon as we return. David also fitchs warning last night, we reported that here live, that the u. S. Credit rating could be at risk, eventually, could that have been politically motivated . Two critics of fitchs dramatic statement late yesterday will sound off. You do not want to miss this segment coming right up. Customer erin swenson ordered shoes from us online but they didnt fit. Customers not happy, im not happy. Sales go down, im not happy. Merch comes back, im not happy. Use ups. They make returns easy. Unhappy customer becomes happy customer. Then, repeat customer. Easy returns, im happy. Repeat customers, im happy. Sales go up, im happy. I ordered another pair. Im happy. both im happy. Im happy. Happy. Happy. Happy. Happy. Happy happy. I love logistics. Help the gulf when we made recover and learn the gulf, bp from what happened so we could be a better, safer energy company. I can tell you safety is at the heart of everything we do. Weve added cuttingedge technology, like a new deepwater well cap and a stateoftheart monitoring center, whe experts watch over all drilling activity twentyfourseven. And were sharing what weve learned, so we can all produce energy more safely. Our commitment has never been stronger. Liz ebay with the numbers. The stock is falling right now. Adam. It is falling because of its guidance. First i want to let you know the stock is trading down over 4 . Here are the numbers, liz. Earnings per share was a beat. 64 cents. Street expecting 63. Revenue right in line with expectation, 3. 9. Street expecting 3. 9 billion. Here is where things getting tricky, Fourth Quarter, earnings per share guidance missing estimate, 79 to 81 cents. Street was expecting 83 cents. Revenue guidance street expecting 4. 6 billion. Ebay saying it will be 4. 5 to 4. 6 billion. Trying to put lipstick on a pig. Strength in paypal, revenue up 19 . 137 million users n a statement the ceo actually talked about the fact that mobil still continues to grow for them. Strong Third Quarter results with mobile driveing a significant portion of new user growth and continuing transform how consumers shop and pay around the world. You see that reflected in paypal. They have questions to answer in that conference call. Liz. Liz indeed. Oh, boy. Thank you very much. Paypal is the real strength there. David it is. That is the moneybags of that operation. In washington lawmakers are getting ready to vote on the senates bipartisan plan to end the debt and budget cliffhanger. We have breaking news of likelihood of republican support in the house. Liz lets head to rich edson on capitol hill. The latest . We wean sure about the latest as far as republican support until republicans met a short while ago. A senior relationship leadership aide is letting us reaction in conference from republicans seems to make it clear there are enough votes to get this through the house of representatives. There is lot still has to happen here on capitol hill but reaction was positive enough from republicans. That including the number of democrats that will come to the table to vote for this, seemed to make it clear this thing will actually pass congress. It seems that there is enough votes in the senate as well. The senate will go first on all of this. We expect anytime twine 5 00 hand 8 00 tonight the senate will vote on this proposal. We expect no other senators will object to the advanced timetable. Typically takes days to get anything out of the senate at this point. Appears they could get this out this evening. It comes over to the house where it will take a few hours. Were told by Senior Leadership aides they expect there are enough votes to get this through and this could all be done the anticipation isly 11 00 tonight. But it is capitol hill. That could certainly slip. There could be bumps along the way and well be watching. Back to you. Liz a lot of workers who have been furloughed, will be watching. Rich, thank you very much. Yeah. Liz not just markets, but soldiers, all kinds of people waiting to hear. David fitch warning of a risk of a downgrade came at critical stage of a. Fitch is in the crosshairs and facing questions. Well talk about that next. Liz call it unintended consequences of the budget and debt deal. Were not talking about the treasury in this case but the fallout on another key economic player, the federal reserve. Well explain that in just a moment. You need to hear it. announcer at scottrade, our clients trade and invest exactly how they want. With scottrades online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login. To easily move my money when i need to. Plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. Because i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer scottradeproud to be ranked best overall client experience. David just ahead of the senate vote on the debt ceiling compromise later this evening the treasury has released its daily statement on its closing balance of cash on hand. Liz peter barnes is on this story every single minute to break down all the numbers. Peter, what is the tally at this point . Well, right now as of yesterday the treasury cash on hand was 39 billion. These reports are delayed by about a day. The treasury releases them about 4 00 every day and this is pretty close to the 30 billion that the treasury said it would have on hand at the time the debt ceiling was, it expected to, that the government would hit the debt ceiling tomorrow and be unable to borrow anymore. It said 30 billion cashing on hand and it looks like it would come in at that amount and it has been around 30 35 billion or so for the last week. Of course all this not coming out on columbus day on monday. All this will be happening, this congress approving the bill, they expected to approve it tonight. Just happening in the nick of time. The white house has asked that congress swiftly approve the bill that the president supports this and it also comes ahead of some big bills that the government has to pay next tuesday, october 23rd. 12 billion in Social Security benefits are, have to be paid. October 31st, halloween, 6 billion in interest payments. And the next day, november 1st, 67 billion in Social Security, medicare, Veterans Benefits and other payments. Now, we expected the president would likely sign this tonight if it gets down to him. Theres a process. After the house passes it, there is process getting down here of the takes a little time. President , no word if he will but in the past the president has done latenight signings on critical legislation. So stand by for that. Back to you. Yesterday, about 36 billion, right . 39 billion. Liz jack lew, treasury secretary, told us two weeks ago thursday on fox business it would be 30 billion right around today. Looks like he is right on the money, right . Thats right. So. Liz peter, thank you. It should be unnecessary, right . Liz indeed. Lets hope. Peter barnes, thank you very much. You saw the news last night right here. Fitch has put the u. S. Credit rating on negative watch. Even before the story broke last evening we heard rumblings of downgrading on the floor from Senate Majority leader harry reid. This is in morning yesterday. The debt is hire. The deadline is looming. Rating agencies are talking about downgrading us as early as tonight. Of. David that was yesterday morning. How did harry reid know . What is fitch up to . Jim nadler, croll bond rating and chief operating officer and john burlow, Competitive Enterprise Institute senior fellow. Jim, first to you. How did harry got word of this . This is an interesting thing. Im not sure how he got word of it. David is it normal for ratings agencies before they do Something Big like this to share it with Members Congress . It is not normal. Im not sure how harry reid knew. He could have a some ending link by fitchs posture before inkling. Fitch, like s p in the past, using a, this sort of nonsense going on in washington as a factor in downgrading the u. S. I think that they are missing the point. Okay. We should emphasize, as harry reid did not, john, this was not a downgrade. This was a credit watch. Very different from a downgrade. Why do you think, if harry reid had this advanced information from fitch, john, why did he mischaracterize it as a downgrade . Well, it just fits the pattern of politicizing the ratings process, david. Weve seen this, standard poors, the main reason for the downgrade which came after the debt ceiling passed in 2011 was the high level of spending and debt, same with the smaller firm called eagan jones. Both firms later found themselves being investigated. Standard poors was the only firm that was prosecuted for the overestimating subprime securities even though moodys and fitch did the same. So there has been a message sent, if you dont toe the line, so maybe, fitch thought a later downgrade was necessary, like s p did because of our unsustainable level of spending it better gets its ducks in a row now. David this is very serious charge, john. What you are saying that fitch timed its announcement to benefit the administration. It surely did benefit people like harry reid and administration, who could say the sky is going to fall if you dont pass something immediately. But do you have any information that fitch tapered its report to the administration . It is not inconceivable and, and i just, fitch has the least credibility of any of the Credit Ratings agencies who dont have a lot of credibility themselves. It was the last, fitch was the last major Credit Rating age for instance to, downgrade france from aaa. So there is the last david jim, by the way that harry reid and a lot of democrats have been trying to speak the markets, thinking that would propel their case in creating some kind of a compromise inside the beltway, right . I think thats fair. I think the, i think the rating agencies have been complicit in this game that has been going on and that is, to allow the markets use these political issues going on with respect to the debt ceiling, with respect to brinksmanship in washington, to use those as reasons to potentially scold central bankers, scold politicians and threaten a downgrade. The real issue is, that the longterm effect of this will be to, to harm our credibility abroad, and potentially have an impact on the u. S. As the reserve currency of the world. Once the u. S. Loses its status as reserve currency in the world, you will see then downgrades that really matter and longterm effects. If you go back to august 11th when, of david august 2011. Right. August 2011 when the u. S. Was downgraded by s p the next day investors flooded into treasurys. David yeah. Vest are. Investors werent worried about the deficit and the debt. David john, one thing you wonder whether investors are worried about is a default. If you look what happened to the market over the past week, when all this talk from the administration and harry reid about default, that it was essentially wall to reaching the debt limit, which just simply is not true, a default is when you decide not to pay the creditors, and when you decide not to pay the bondholders, but it doesnt equal, does not automatically happen when you hit the debt ceiling s that something that could eventually spook the markets and eventually lead to a downgrade . I dont think over, well, a like, like you all were saying, a downgrade doesnt necessarily mean, where are investors going to buy securities . Europe . I dont think we have to fear from a slight downgrade anyway. And think in the long term it is the spending, the unsustainable levels of spending and debt. I dont think, you know, to have extending the debt ceiling by a few days, investors know that we were actually in breach at 95 and 96. The government shut down the debt ceiling for month and we still paid our bills. So this is, the guardian, a liberal british newspaper investors are seeing real debt ceiling deadline is in november. The markets knew it was sort of a floating period and levels of spending david we have to leave it at that, gentlemen. Thank you very much. We appreciate. Thank you, david. Thank you. David liz . Liz so how much damage, okay, did this budget debt showdown actually do to the reputation of the United States and how much did it scare Global Markets . Well look at the potential Economic Impact of waiting until the 11th hour to raise that debt ceiling. David also yahoo ceo marisa mayer is a big believer in alibaba, but will investors be equally enthusiastic about alibabas upcoming ipo . Well find out upcoming later in the hour. My mantra . Trust your instincts to make the call. To treat my low testosterone, my doctor and i went with axiron, the only underarm low t treatment. 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Jeff, tell us right now, the reputational damage, im fine if other nations think lowly of us, who cares but that does then translate into problems economically in other countries . Well, i think it does. I mean there is the Reputational Risk you have to take into account. I think folks in washington dont fully appreciate this. Treasury securities are not just a borrowing instrument for the government. Treasury securities are used as assets, used as collateral in very important borrowing market, really, liz, a global market, the repo market. That is for better, or lack of a better word a savings market where big corporations can keep their cash where it is liquid and they can have it on a daily basis to pay employees. If you throw into question a Treasury Security, the reputation of a Treasury Security being the worlds reserve asset par excellence, then, that has ripple effects into these other markets. That is what i worry about most. Liz what if we get a deal tonight, does that get eraseed . Or are there reverberations for several weeks or sever months . I think, you know, the temporary nature of this, the market will forgive and forget. It will be a kefuffle. It wont be a longterm problem. The reason i say that is because nobody is really considering this a solvency risk, the fact that the u. S. Government might not pay its bills. If you look it how much money, liz, the u. S. Government is bringing in every month, the 12month rolling average is 23bilion a month. And werehelling out just or 200 billion or so, the bigna items. Medicare,h nament type issue that the treasury nees the flexibility of the debtlin manage around. Liz does it become a bit more technical . You talked about the commercial paper market or shortterm lending market. People that dont understand, Big Companies like general electric, they borrow a lot of money to pay their bills and pay their employees and they pay back that borrowing issue when they can but this begins to make you wonder whether the plum being stays clean. The plumbing is the key issue, you know. We dont tend to think about the plumbing until it gets clogged. The knockon effects in the system you need to worry about and times like these where those problems come up to the surface. I dont think its a systemically crisis. It is certainly not a crisis on a level we saw with lehman brothers. Liz but would it be if we didnt get a deal . It would be ramification for the use of those securities in collateral markets, absolutely, if you didnt get a deal in the near term. I think another step to think is, how long is a deal going to be if we kick this can, liz, six weeks or two months or even three months, or were going to be right back at the same discussion around the table again in a short, in short order. That doesnt solve the fundamental problems. Still leaves looming uncertainty out there. Liz well, lets speak to our investor audience right now. What should be worrying them the most . We can talk about oh, theres a deal. Market looks healthy. Look at today. We saw a nice rally but what should they be ready for . I think as stewards of capital, as investors we have to look through a little bit of the circus, the threering circus that is washington and consider if there is a deal it does get done. You still have knockon effects for growth for the current quarter. Really when you look through this, growth will be lackluster. Liz anyway. Relative to what some people expected. Liz anyway. Yeah. So keep that in mind. This presents Downside Risks to that scenario but still lackluster growth and that is liz let me jump in. We got the fed beige book but didnt get a lot of attention and gives us a sense of health of economy in regional areas. It was usual, well see plodding, slow growth. Lets just say that the belief we were at least going slowly to the upside. Would this have entirely derailed us . If so, then what, as we look forward what do you anticipate for gdp because of whats happened . I dont want to overplay the impacts of this. Two to three weeks after Government Shutdown shaved maybe half a percentage point off annualized quarterly gdp growth. For example, liz, if you were expecting 2. 5 gdp growth in the Fourth Quarter as we were, it is now closer to 2 in our estimation. The knockon effects are more difficult to gauge in real time. I dont think this is a 2011 august scenario. Liz okay. I think u. S. Economy is on better footing, the budget is on better footing and we dont have that big looming euro area crisis as we did in the summer of 2011. So the impacts wont be severe but were still talking 2 type growth, liz. Liz jeff, great to have you. Jeff cleveland talking about the effect of gdp, david. David love that guy. Speaks very clearly. By the way were getting news right now, that the house is expected to vote on this, 7 00 to 8 00 p. M. At the least, at the earliest. So if you want to see how this thing pans out in the house and of course that is the key house, the house of representatives will decide whether it passes you have to wait up until at least 8 00. Meanwhile yahoo s marisa mayer is betting big on internet giant alibaba. Why it is so important for mayers plans for the future. Liz you remember the blockbuster movie avatar . Have you ever wonder what it is like on fictional plan net . David i know what it is like. Liz that was the 60s. David that is true. That is brown stuff. You will find out. Well get a chance to explain whether we go off the desk. Stick with innovation. Stick with power. Stick with technology. Get the flexcare platinum. New from philips sonicare. You really love, what would you do . [ woman ] id be a writer. [ man ] id be a baker. [ woman ] i wanna be a pie maker. [ man ] i wanna be a pilot. [ woman ] id be an architect. What if i told you someone could pay you and what if that person were you . When you think about it, isnt that what retirement should be, paying ourselves to do what we love . David alibaba is planning an ipo in the u. S. And yahoo ceo marisa mayer, is betting big that al by baba will knock it out of the park alibaba. Liz jo ling kent joins with us the story. It was only good news for alibaba coming out in the i cant Earnings Report yesterday of the because yahoo owns 24 of the chinese ecommerce giant we got to see new details that came out. Yahoo announced it would sell 53. 5 million fewer alibaba shares than agreed upon. That means yahoo could make more money if alibaba stock does well after the anticipated ipo here in the u. S. You can see why they want to keep more shares. Alibaba revenue in last quarter was up 61 yearoveryear. It brought in 1. 7 billion, versus 1. 08 billion in the Third Quarter last year. Profits soared, up 74 from 740 million in the Third Quarter of 2012 versus nearly 1. 3 billion. And heres the big number that i was watching. Net income left, 159 to 707 million in the Third Quarter. Thats great news on alibaba. It bodes well for what is likely to be a massive ipo here in the u. S. But both exchanges, liz and dave, are staying mum on the topic. They wont say a word right now. David talk about a cash cow. That is amazing. Big, big. Thank you, jo ling. No problem. Liz we asked you on facebook and twitter, are you confident enough in the d. C. Debt deal to jump into the market rally . Well read some of your comments next. vo you are a business pro. Maestro of project management. Baron of the buildout. You need a permit. To be this awesome. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above, and still pay the midsize price. aaron purrrft. vo meeeow, business pro. Meeeow. Go national. Go like a pro. Customer erin swenson ordebut they didnt fit. Line customers not happy, im not happy. Sales go down, im not happy. Merch comes back, im not happy. Use ups. They make returns easy. Unhappy customer becomes happy customer. Then, repeat customer. Easy returns, im happy. Repeat customers, im happy. Sales go up, im happy. I ordered another pair. Im happy. both im happy. Im happy. Happy. Happy. Happy. Happy. Happy happy. I love logistics. Help the gulf when we made recover and learn the gulf, bp from what happened so we could be a better, safer energy company. I can tell you safety is at the heart of everything we do. Weve added cuttingedge technology, like a new deepwater well cap and a stateoftheart monitoring center, whe experts watch over all drilling activity twentyfourseven. And were sharing what weve learned, so we can all produce energy more safely. Our commitment has never been stronger. Melissa take it off the desk. Movie director, james cameron. Man behind the blockbuster film avatar, announced plans for a avatar themed attraction in Walt Disney World in florida. It is tentatively entitled avatar land behave on the planet pandora. David that is spectacular idea. That is great idea. Would i do it. We asked you on facebook and twitter if youre confident enough in the senates deal to jump into this rally. Mike on facebook told us i probably should be but im content to watch others get in and drive up the value of my current holdings. Good plan. Liz number one thing to watch tomorrow will be latest from washington d. C. Lawmakers vote tonight on the senates bipartisan deal to end the partial Government Shutdown and to raise the debt ceiling. Watch futures. Watch fox business. Were watching your money. David market ended up above 200 today on the dow. It will be a very interesting day tomorrow. You do not want to miss it. Keep it right here. Money with Melissa Francis is next. Melissa im Melissa Francis and here is whats money tonight. The votes to potentially end the debt standoff, they are imminent right now. Are we really, truly looking at an end . We have lawmakers from the house and senate to tell us what will happen next. Plus, buckle up, your next airline seat could be even smaller, or you might just get your own on board chef. Airlines unveil all new ways to rake in more money, but which ones will you pay for . Who made money today. The housing recovery rolled out a carpet made of money for them. Keep watching to find out who it is, even when they say it is not, it is always about money