Transcripts For CSPAN2 Today In Washington 20121020

By these low academic conferences i have a book coming out. [laughter] the book is relevant. Its called the working title is from cicero to snookie how the culture shapes the president. And its with the president s have read, watch, listen to, attended over the years and what books, what kind of books influenced them, shoot them, how information came to the president and the type of technology we have available. Our founders were limited to performances onstage or work on paper. They didnt have twitter and all the stuff we have today that they were still huge consumers of information. The argument i want to make today is the information president consumed in the Program Since the beginning of the state of israel has helped shape their approach to israel, and also we can understand a little bit about what the president , what kind of president somebody is going to be by the type of material they read or take advantage of. So in a way, although the program says im talking about the two bushs, talking about how books shape policies towards the people of the book and with the president s of rwanda israel and its been important on how the president s approach israel and we have to start i know youre going to have a separate conversation but we do really have to start with harry truman. If you go back to 1948 and 47, 48, it wasnt clear that the United States was going to be an ally of israel and its not clear the u. S. Was going to support a creative state and the u. S. Was going to recognize israel. These are open questions that in fact many of the questions the state department was not in the right place. A big shock for anybody that follows the state department. The state apartment wasnt in the right place and wasnt as supportive as israel, and in fact the secretary of state threatened to resign if truman went ahead with proisrael position. They did have the u. S. Approach to create the partition. He had the u. S. Recognize israel and these are important statements that he made. One of the things i read in the recent argument in the article and i think that you can talk about this in the conversation leader is the jewish vote was important. Bye supporting israel and the way he did, harry truman helped secure the jewish vote to the Democratic Party for a long time during Going Forward. There are a lot of reasons why jewish vote democrats but among a number of them was that early on the Democratic Party, democratic president truman was supportive of the creation of the states, and that really helped Democrats Gain the jewish vote. There are other historical reasons and lord knows they taught them a lot. That was an important step. The question is why it harry truman do this beyond the jewish vote harry truman was a huge leader, she was the last president not to have graduated college. Think about it a president but didnt graduate college is something dole today. Today, you know, no matter who wins the president ial election, every president dating back from the post 1980 election will have had a degree from even harvard or yale or george w. Bushs case, both. But back then you want to get george w. Bush on not, right . Laughter, but back then it was in the case. Harry truman as i said did not have a cause to read what he was a huge reader. Started as a child whose parents strongly encouraged his reading. In fact at one point his father talked about how he saved a whole bunch of money to buy a set of mark twains books and the read the bible over and over again. His frequent reading in the bible theres another book that really influenced truman thats called a great men and famous women. It was this book about the great figures in history. And one of the people featured in the book, i guess it wasnt a great men section because his name included cyrus the great, the persian king who allowed the israelites to return after the babylonian exile in 586 b. C. Blamed the demise of the business of andrew jackson. How could that be . Jackson died of 100 years before the business even began. But what happened was jacobsen recalled that instead of treating intending to the customers, truman was spending all this time reading biographies of andrew jackson. So he blamed Amber Jackson for the demise of the business. When jacobsen introduced truman at this event, he called truman the leader that helped create israel. Remember the assisting verb. Helped create. Truman was indignant at this beauty set, which even helped create . I am cyrus. I am cyrus. He said it twice. The truman had cyrus on the brain. Enduring us, obviously was beneficial to zero in the jewish people because it helped create truman would kill a paper grave. It also does that help secure the jewish vote for the democrats for a long time to come. Again come with other factors. So lets fast forward a number of years. The kind of rule of thumb for a long time Going Forward after that point was that the democrats were more proisrael, associate a president ial level than the republicans. Bush is to stem that the democrats were more proisrael. In fact, i was just reading a book about the secret service that we fear honda fascinated Robert Kennedy, a palestinian who is mentally deranged. What the reasons he assassinated Robert Kennedy was because he didnt want the more proisrael to get the presidency. These days you wouldnt really assassinate a president ial candidate because for the most part, president ial candidates are proisrael. It was a question. I wasnt quite that clear. So you have this situation about what the Republican Party was not seen as proisrael and the republicans in congress. Obviously nixon in the 73 yom kippur war did get crucial arms and we are met to the israelis, although it took a while is officially over the objections of the jewish adviser, henry kissinger. But eisenhower had insisted that israel cannot do the 564, journal for did not have relations with israel. And certainly in congress, Scoop Jackson who were strong producer of democrats. And then come in the 70s happens. 1976, carter becomes president. He becomes president with the assistance of it later became known as the neoconservatives, the coalition for the democratic majority. These are people who are disaffected with the leftward drift of the Democratic Party. And they were looking for something different. It was kissinger in the nixon or ford administration. The 1972 mcgovern are looking for something different. Carter seemed to be the thing that was different. Hit a prohuman rights democracy can idealistic strain that appeals to these nascent neoconservatives. When they did so, they were disappointed and on a number of levels. One level they were disappointed for my personal perspective. Neoconservatives expected to get the Carter Administration and they were almost completely shut out. In fact, Elliott Abrams had this famous comment where he said we didnt get anything. All we got with the ambassadorship to micronesia. Im sorry, micronesia. Not even micronesia, but micronesia. The carter Foreign Policy was not sufficiently strong in the cold war. The neoconservatives joke was the carter Foreign Policy was this a country coming to an ethnic restaurant. The vietnam afghanistan, doubtless eat up all these ethnic restaurants popping up in washington d. C. And then, carter was also a difficult relations with israel. As president , he did not head in a 1980, Ronald Reagan was seen as an alternative, also John Andersen missing for carter, which is not the president from the jewish perspective. And so what happened in 1980 was reagan got 39 of the jewish vote. You might say he lost the jewish vote. Was so great about that . For republican to get 39 is a huge achievement. In fact, over the appear that im talking about, the High Water Mark of a 39 , belowmarket 11 . But that range of 20 in the low part of love into the high 39 is really the range of jewish support for israel. So people says remnick went to get the jewish vote . And a supporter from a come adviser to romney. Hes not going to get the jewish vote. But if he gets in the midto high 30s, thats a good sign. And so was Ronald Reagan company sought three consecutive elections, where the republicans got 30 are hired the jewish vote. Reagan, reagan and bush in 88. Its not coincidently the republicans won all elections. Reagan was outspoken in support of israel. Thats what israel is now in the cold war, which is important. Its a democracy in the middle east in an area that was largely efficient in democracies and still is. So bright and hot. Important feeling towards israel. And he also, he was a big reader. The way he found one of the neoconservatives who a prominent role in his administration was favored in commentary magazine. He read article by Jeanne Kirkpatrick called dictatorship come a double standard. A very famous article appeared in the article, kirkpatrick who is a democrat but drifting to the right and had a very strong proisrael strategy against the soviet argued that in recent history, no totalitarian administration coming to a totalitarian regime had a permit to democracy or as a third care issues are intendant correctly did move to democracy come or suggested the reagan Foreign Policy should be as tough as possible and totalitarian regimes, but work with a turing machines to turing machines to help them drift towards democracy. This is a very important a very important thing that the Reagan Administration and kirkpatrick into the administration of the number of neoconservatives were advisers asserted the administration including Elliott Abrams was upset about micronesia. He served at the leaders there at the state department. So reagan helped bring Jewish Voters to the Republican Party. Again, not a majority. The majority is now a political strategists are looking at. He did help them bring into the 30s. Now, we get after reagans administration of george h. W. Bush. George h. W. Bush got over 30 of his election in 1988. The first time he ran for president , first time his party nominee. And so, bush started off with a nice base of support in the jewish community. However, bush lost that support and he lost it hard. There are a number of reasons for this. Some of them quite famous to this day still. One was that he objected he had a packing to a disagreement about a Loan Guarantee to israel based on whether israel is building in settlements. We know the sentiment is supportive or not. And he gave feature is that im just one lonely guy out there fighting against evil army of lobbyists. That would seem a very tough shot. But even more famously was you said james baker . Goldstar. James baker, we said im not going to send the bad word. He said after jewish, theyre not going to vote for us anyway. And given the speaker is coming up this afternoon, my friend ed koch, ed koch was the one who printed that statement. He was the first to print in the daily news. It was leaked to him by jack kemp. He was the bush cabinet at hud, always had strong scheuer support and he told ed koch about this outrageous statement, which is outrageous and baker still hasnt gotten over it. And so, support for bush plummeted. Now, im not going to say the next thing is directly related, but the elder bush was not a reader. Reagan was reading commentary magazines and getting inside for not appear that was not bushs interests. There was one time when bush was going on vacation and he was asked what is going to to do on vacation. He said im going to do a lot of running, a lot of tennis, a lot of golf, a lot of poor shoes, a lot of powerboating and a little reading. I throw that out there for the intellectuals out there. Reagan was missing. There was another time he was asked about a book that influenced him in his youth when he was in school. And he said catcher in the rye. Great choice, good book, but came out 10 years after he had graduated college. So obviously he was not reading that in his youth. Maybe one of the sentiment that that in their use. Bushes was in a reader. Some people are, some arent. I dont hold it against him. Fairways were shakily support for israel or even more generally Foreign Policy. Although he did in the 1992 campaign, which is going badly for him. He did talk to a tally by truman. Obviously he didnt get those necessarily, but he did creep out. Following bush, in fact in the bush election, which im sure hank is going to talk about, he plummeted from 35 bush got 211 . Thats a low watermark. Thats it. 11 of the jewish vote, which in most preobama elections, the voters about 1010 republicans. The jewish vote had gone down that low. Theyre a number of reasons. This one was on this israel policies are talked about. Second was the economy was not at all. And third he was up against the political maestro who was advised by our friend, hank sheinkopf. Clinton had a very strong proisrael background. She was he was comfortable to the jewish and both his Domestic Social policies were jewish generally tend to be more assertive democrats and on the Foreign Policy front as well. So we had the eight years of clinton and bush sons come around in 2000, looking to replace, to step in after quite retired. We had two terms that we didnt have the constitutional amendment, he might still be president based on his recent speech at the convention. But its not. We have the amendment, to terms the value to appear as though bush is running to replace him and i have a friend, a yarmulke wearing friend who is at an event with george w. Bush around 2011 before the election. Bush sought him out from the crowd, pulled him aside and grabbed him by the arm and said i want you to know im not going to be like my father was on israel. And bush is from different perspective. Bush is a w. Bush. W. Is from a different perspective. George w. Bush had should prohibit minorities, part of the establishment, the realpolitik world including henry kissinger. W. Bush was more from the south are an evangelical background. These are groups much more supportive of israel. Bush was also a huge reader, loved reading. I know people dont think that about him, but happens to be the case. He would read 80 to 90 bucks a year. Get a reading contest is karl rove. These are a serious bucks, history, biography, sometimes philosophy. Karl rove wants that in 35 years teenage george w. Bush, he never saw him without a book. The guy love to read. He did not retire sit and especially did not protest when he was running for governor in texas, when he was trying to out cowboy his opponent. His last election in 1972 dining tent camps. He was a democrat and he blistered bush for being a carpetbagger, for being a pointy hat, a northeastern harbor daniel guy. Just as george w. Bush were talking about. Bush was eviscerated on that front by a real down home texan. After that election, bush vowed, i will never be out country began. And he wasnt. So bush, even though he was a reader, didnt talk about that until late in the second term and is trying to change its reputation around. But when he turned ginger reputation, everybody or it has a perception of view, its too late. Nevertheless, the books that help shape his worldview. When he was written books about the arab world, had books about bernard lewis, as one shall make him a lot of neoconservative thinkers including jay when i could burst among Foreign Policy. Elliott who wrote the book about political leaders in general, including bengurion, but also winston churchill. Eliot cohen later came into the Bush Administration as the secretary of state, condoleezza rice. And he also must seamlessly read book on democracy. He read the sharansky book is so affected him that he gave it. He had them come in for a visit in the oval office and sharansky said afterwards, bush not only read the book, he felt it. And the idea about the promotion of democracy became an important influence for the second natural address, in which bush for development of democracy in the arab world. Some sad air of spring turned into an unpleasant winter and came from the date of termination. So we have a very proisrael president. Its both symbolic and sensitive issues. It wasnt just his reading. It goes back to 1998. And on that visit, there is not a power politician named our real sharon. Sharon offered to take push around and took them on this famous helicopter ride, we took both of israel habaneros part of israel whereas only nine miles from the Mediterranean Sea to the most and are part of the west bank. A part that can be cut off in a matter of hours. And he showed that from the helicopters days. We got drivers in texas bigger than not. So bush understood israels security concerns. He also understood something else. During that trip, with ariel sharon went out to be friendly to bush, yasir arafat took a very different approach. And in fact, arafat basically jacked bush around about whether hed be willing and able to be with you. I will come i wont come i do want to meet with you. Typical arafat slipperiness. And it ended up with all the slipperiness they did not have a meeting. Bush leaves the country and upon his departure can arafat holds a conference denouncing bush for refusing to meet with him. And at that moment, bush realized he couldnt trust his character. I would bet into the support for arafat was in his compound abundant isolated, not getting help from the u. S. Come he regretted the way he acted when bush visited. So with a shred of proisrael president , personal, ideological and intellectual reasons and he only got 19 of the jewish vote in 2000. Remember there was a jewish orthodox Vice President ial candidate running with al gore, but he got a big lump from 19 in 2002 may 24 of the jewish vote in 2004 against john kerry. That really helped the Bush Campaign in ohio and florida hold down the democratic margin in certain districts that usually go very strongly or democrats. So, bush really benefited from the outreach come especially to the orthodox meeting. The orthodox and he went 40 for bush, 70 for bush in 2004. Im going to come to a conclusion, but i want to tack a little bit briefly about obama and romney. Obama has a reputation as a reader. Its not clear. There was one tiniest about it but he was reading. He said they basically have time to floss my teeth and watch sportscenter. He was a huge tv watcher. He watches homeland, modern family. He watches boardwalk empire, soprano spirit is a big tv watcher and he talks about his tv watching. Nas mentions nokia couple times on the white house podium. But theres an interesting article by elise smith, who suggested that obamas approach is influenced by edward saeed in his book on orientalism. He doesnt necessarily suggest that obama read the book, but he said columbia in the early 80s, the whole idea was in the air and he made taken that into account. Theres also another word and going on with obama. Its not a bomb assault, but theres been this trend of people giving obama jewish books. Netanyahu started by giving the book of mr. Jeffrey goldberg gave him this new pretty liberal translation and then peter byner gave him his third attempt on his or her book, crisis of zionism. I just wondered what would happen if a jewish president and evangelical christians given the translations of the new testament. Ill make you would go over well. Thats what we do. To get jewish books to editors, even if theyre not jewish. In terms of mitt romney, he is obviously looking to get a better percentage of the jewish vote than mccain did. He can only got 20 of the jewish vote in 2008. He is aggressively engaged in orthodox outreach and jewish outreach in general. I was in a phone call with governor romney and he was talking to three dozen jewish leaders this past thursday night. He also has read a number books relevant to israel, including startup nation but dan seymour who is an adviser to romney, which is a really important both in terms of making israel not about just the arabisraeli issue comes with a Strong Economy and changing the perception of israel among Business Leaders and u. S. So well see what happens in the upcoming election, but i have direct from this study, but also it is better off, when it comes to israel, its better to have a president that reads then they dont. Its better to have a president that reads the right stuff. Thank you very much. [applause] things. We call mr. Sheinkopf to the podium and after he speaks will take questions with respect to both speakers. After that extraordinary presentation can i really dont know how i can keep you busy for 20 minutes. Thats the mandate here. Im not sure that i can. I make some observations about jews generally, i can talk about what i feel about it. And the harried truman democrat, which tells you about my basic perceptions of the world. I think my opportunity of people, you defend the basic antenna set a moral tone and make sure to read this extraordinary nation does its job around the world within reason and that it takes up as the only one done, it takes out the job that he took upon itself at the Second World War to make sure innocent people were murdered for religious belief. We seem to be failing. But bill clinton didnt fill in that regard. He had one regret i think, havent spoken about this over the years that he did not do anything or what he shouldve done about rwanda, neither is anyone else. Id be applied to decide to come a long history with jews while he was still governor on arkansas. I worked for the first time in the 80s when he was governor. He has since was wisconsins major advisor and brought me to see that then governor pivot got along really well and the relationship that went on for an awfully long time for me. He was very much committed to jewish, is a judeo imagination. The first day i remember going into the white house and going upstairs to the residence library. Its a very peculiar place is hopefully some time. This is one door that goes upstairs to the residence. And the place is like a museum. You see this gigantic. It really is and gigantic. Its like living in its like living in how do you translate an english class like a warehouse thats controlled on all sides and you have inventory. The people of inventory are constantly being watched to make sure the inventory does have changed, but nothing occurs to her, but its already ready to be used, can be sold and moved in in time. Its precious and contained. When there is the president of the United States, even if youre doing business every few minutes, National Comments to ask is happening in another two minutes or if youre waiting for the president , who beat her in two minutes for the president will be her one and a half, the president will be here in 15 seconds. Because anything the president of the United States has extraordinary impact of everything around us. During the Reelection Campaign in 1995 and six, we went against the republicans. I shot the fma would broadcast them in june of 199517 months before the election, which the wall street journal beat the out of me for. I was next at the double obviously in the series. But the president went to dallas to make a speech that we were moving the numbers. In january 1995 come he was down 35 points against a generic republican, including bob dole because the year before the democrats as a result had lost both the house and senate, which is what happened to this fine fellow, obama. The same thing, health care loses those chambers. History tends to repeat itself. Anyway, the president [inaudible] 1994. [inaudible] thats correct, 1994 both chambers are lost or democrats controlled the senate. Had a good shot until the Romney Campaign imploded to lose it. That being said, 1994 both boss through the prison is down 35 months. I heard you. I got it. I got the correction. I got the criticism. Per duncombe or moving on. I know its hard, but we will. The president goes to dallas, makes a speech and he says, i know that many of you think they raise your taxes too much. Though i did when the stock market took a 200point hey. The point is that anything the president does or says as instant impact on the world around him. And its a serious thing and we often forget the politics have direct impacts. The governance is entirely different. He was first evolved very much a southerner, very much the sun of an alcoholic. The illegitimate son of an alcoholic mother, very brooding at night, would read all the people ive worked for this three smartness listed in the introduction and although more extraordinary leaders consistently and constantly and extraordinarily smart and well versed. Clinton was very much committed to make any world better because of his own background. He had jewish roundedness part of their think tank. The number of books on jews accredit the shelves. The people in the reelection effort a few but in 1995 and 96, belknap dining chain coffee was jewish. Then you had that was the primary group of people. The higherlevel advertisement on matters. If you look at it colberg, the great moral than the bosnia was when you think about maybe the high watermark pricing for moral behavior and the use of military as a moral tool. That is an argument ill have that anybody could without question, its a difficult decision to make. The jewish are very much involved in this. Here youre the guy doing all these things, republican responses they want to kill them because no southerner whose president of the United States should be a democrat. He spent a lot of years from the beginning trying to get some logic for that reason. He was the opposite of what Newt Gingrich was. And what does this mean for the jewish . Jewish luckman because he was everything they wanted him to be. He was a guy who talked about human rights, supported israel, kept the economy running, who is not evangelical from the south and who knew them. But the great problem republicans have faced historically is that its kind of the same way kind of the problem with blacks and hispanics. They keep saying, if only we can talk to those people and spend enough money, somehow this will turn around. This thing has been going on for it years. Medoc has been writing extensively about this spirit were the only people in the world to embrace someone who sat by, did very little. I mean, to their extraordinary thing. We look for other values and our president and the cute looking at them as democrats of a substitute what the commentary magazine uniquely described as the 10 nonjewish and a very important article everyone ought to read good nonjewish values make them part of our religion. We put that on the face of the political people we see and vote for because we want to then feel somehow some sense of comfort. Friedman has with us at Columbia University are an important book called the fatal embrace, defining how we seek refuge in the arms of the great king or the rate reader at the moment and then lose their bearings for the rest of society and that is essentially what happens to escom delete as a group of people. They know what, we dont have much choice because of our numbers. The fact that we dont matter electorally. The amount of intent to the Effect Committee put upon that they require. And hopefully because he was like having a double headache all day long from day long from the time you wake up in the evening because jews are insistent complainers. Complaining is the National Pastime for jews all over the world. The amount of money and time being put into jews and to get to vote is an absolute waste of time. I know its hard to admit youre not part and which are not. Ill tell you why. New york, california, theyre not voting republican. The republicans in california have no power. They cant get anything done in the state legislature. Is the craziest thing i ever saw. Where else do they live . They live in illinois. Or not voting republican. Ohio . Not likely. You look at the shift in democrats, people who are becoming more assimilated and becoming less jewish may be voting for Democratic People becoming less assimilated unless acculturated by voting more frequently republican, but numbers are smaller in relationship to the rest of the body at large. So the idea the jewish vote for republicans in massive numbers doesnt make any sense. Its not likely to happen and the last democrat to jews universally felt good about was probably bill clinton. Were not feeling good about barack obama and i think we have every reason to feel that way. I think that bill clintons unified or made it easier for us because he was able to bring an evangelical streak within, a jewish streak within. You were to church. It was religious in a country that prides itself on religiosity. It is now in danger. Theres a story this week about the decline of religiosity. Clinton was the last president in our lifetime to all of us who probably presided over a nation that still had meant a growing and pretty apparent and clear so the culture, that since appeared in the 90s that is decline precipitously, with the end of fraternal organization, the local Community Groups and the declining participation of religious activities that gave people the culture that defines this country. That problem is serious [inaudible] well, robert had been made industry. The original article is worth reading an important that every graduate student for the rest of the time will be reading them in clinical science and sociology. Contact him at the decline of civic culture of Television Viewing is made worse by Television Viewing and a device that dr. Troy was kind enough to raise into his hands because it tells you where this is going. People are not participating at levels they would. So what does it mean for us as a jews and people who are a democracy . During the clinton years and bush one and two, a public discussion with was featured out like, less personal, more significant. And in fact in many ways, more jewish. There is no place in the khmer, no matter how heated the argument is that people say im going to sheedy today im going to do something to excommunicate you because youre in a missile in and cutting off your funding. It doesnt work that way. But we have is a political culture in this new era that is completely balkanized, where the expectation is that nothing will get done in the jewish think theyre important because somehow are not important at all. But they are important for us checkwriting. One of my favorite experiences is to go to the white house for christmas party. Yes, theyve Christmas Parties at the white house. And i was fair, as are a bunch of other people. One guy looked at me im sitting there, what purpose this . The world these people . I saw some local pols i knew around the country a couple people work for the president at the level it works out. And there were other people, and they were all well dressed and well mannered weird i said hi, what do you do . I said im sure in for coming because for the president. That im a writer. Matteroffact, while writers. What did you write . Well, we write checks. They look like me, i could feel it, polish, jewish, german, jewish, sending romanian, jewish. I felt it. Then i went subsequently that 50 comes from jews. And thats achten said its pretty amazing. When you become . Rebuttal, but we dont vote at the same laborious to because because the 11th commandment is thou shalt vote. Its quite out to me. I said what are we doing . Were not of funders. A couple years ago i got some flack for saying publicly in the newspapers that new york city ways the atm for american politics, where might the antisemi and decided that they should make that because i was proven in fact we control the world. Im not so sure about that. Some days i wake up and say its good to be a member of these conspiracy, but its hard. The banks in the morning, media in the afternoon. The conspiracy at night in the comments colberg at we could offer people on one call, they communicate in that way. That being said, were writing checks, but were not participating. And this has taken on a greater and much more significant center in the latter part of the bush years, going into the obama years and Going Forward. So what were doing is ugly, as opposed to the clinton years as are not participating. Even political scientist nrb writing studies to indicate, and ive looked at them to check readiness important part of public participation, rather than going to go. You know, its kind of nice. So where presiding over a people like me have created a political system. I talk about that this week in the wall street journal. For participating in a system to essentially become entirely run by cash, with no ideas and the ultimate issue will be, what does that mean for jews in the jewish state . I would argue and i give this lecture at a synagogue a couple months ago, that this is neither good for us longterm, nor shortterm and he should have more hope that the state of israel will survive and democracy will continue. And the problem we face from a gun into the democracy game because we came to this country and we participated in the became socalled progressives because we came from places that were fascist government and the became the great voters and because we couldnt get into whether theyre republican or democrat machine based in iris or other dominant political culture is. With that in the cities because we had no place else to live and we need to be close to synagogues and institutions that we need. What we did instead was the became organized thinking that somehow fight over organizing you would have access to power. The people running for president. Over organizing does not have power and access does not have power. The definition of power now is the ability to write a check. During the clinton years it was getting in the voting booth in meeting the president shaking his hand. In the bush years, it is being a downhome country boy and being able to fit and put the extraordinary and still viable cannot for election of president , which issa called the iron triangle, which is northern catholics, dynamic to put people into office. As a way a jews dont necessarily fit enough. I want to blow your mind, but youre just not important enough a piece of southern protestants, northern catholics. Bush understood that in the first term. Rove understood that certainly. Contrary to whatever may have written, it worked that way. Bush won understood it, bush two. Jimmy carter got away with it. Richard nixon invented it. It was nixon and the Great Southern strategy, putting northern catholics in another place from which gave rise to the evangelical drift. That being said, sasso functioning quite sure it is, but not in the same way. It is dangerous for us is a Smaller Group of people with this political system and the parties do not function the way they should and are instead replaced by mercantile sense because we survive on the notion that the voting booth matters, even though we really dont count president ial elections. And we survived because we are, so long as that notion matters and nobody has figured out that is starting to become a 3d con job. The symbolic use of politic was written a long time ago, talks about a great place for extraordinary things happen and that is the basis for belief of the american system. If i were doing is writing checks, we dont have much to believe about because money is not a deity last i looked in democracy of some of the same. A breakdown of the parties, which is what happening with the person of money and a breakdown of ideology is not that. When they breakdown in ideology is, certain things happen. In recent times is probably venezuela. I would doubt that the absent, the white van in whitehorse is not that far off if something doesnt correct the exceptions of cash and mercantilist at politics in this country. Why . There were two parties i worked in venezuela in the 90s. Two parties function copay, christian democrats, right . And the democratic alliance, which was really i would say the centerleft. Both parties had definitive ideologies when they began. Both parties became correct. Both parties made no room for young people to move up the ladder. Both parties had a structure, harvard, princeton, cornell, but not someplace else or no college. Note these things very carefully. They are not good for jews. Tanaka for democracy and the exactly opposite of what either president bush or president clinton had in mind. They are dangerous to democracy longterm and dangerous he appeared so close you up with this thought. You dont have to like what george bush did. I thought that the villain in the piece was rumsfeld for a whole host of reasons. You cant fight a war, whether blunt and wore nike camp can put because you want to save 2. Eisenhower didnt do it. It was a great organizer. He may not offend most extraordinaire most extraordinaire president and not the greatest friend israel had. That being said, these two president s, because of their wages at the time they took office, represented a particular point of view a particular sense of where the nation is going at the end of the 20th century. What we see this in and out the way democracy functions. And into the way we saw democracy also, and the legacy of as yet to be counted, but during the clinton years and i have to do this because they have to be partisan, will be remembered as a country that is not a word, where most of the works were regularly, were doubledigit inflation much of the carter years didnt have to remember, where Mortgage Rates were down over america seems to be thriving and where were mostly at peace. We are now at a point where things are not that way at all, where the future is not something were pretty sanguine about. The state of israel is both existentially at risk and risk politically because of an increase in International Antisemitism and just to hear strolling along past the holocaust. So how do you combat these things . At a few rail against the nature of money in politics and you call for Campaign Finance to fund it shut this down as quickly as possible. Think are going to lose the democracy so many of us think is important to see people like clinton and bush get to office. Thank you very much. [applause] i think you did fill 20 minutes, thank you. And we have time for some questions. Theres a microphone microphone in the ideas. Well start right to your right. Both of you talked about president clinton and id like to ask you, we talked about support of jews for the various president , but i would like to know what has been the support of the jews by these president s, particularly nothing was mentioned about clintons oslo accords, which were not good for the jewish state. The active involvement of president clinton defeating and israel by sending his political at a thursday. Thats not true, by the way. I was fair. Thats absolutely not true. That is absolutely false. I can tell you a story about it but its historically accurate or not is not true. Very simply, was in the room. First of all, he was pulling for paris against netanyahu. Sean came in the room and sat, asked for me. We were to the room, he said we have to send to his or her right away because he understands, speaks a language, knows the culture. They said that your contract, is the country. Im firing all of you. Thats a story. Thats what happened. So what youre saying is not true. Are valid weeper . Astarte out of the white house. Nothing to do with anything. They were with iraq that had nothing to do with anything. Nothing whatsoever. I ask you about the oslo accords. Was that a policy that was good for the jewish state . I think hindsight is a wonderful thing. Look, im a jabotinsky eich, so i cant have a rational discussion about it. You know, i dont believe theres palestinian people. From a clinical standpoint, hindsight is a wonderful thing. For who . You. Lets give a couple more people a chance to play by. Ill just defer to hank of all things clinton. Me again. So bill clinton and george w. Bush are not on the ballot. What should we do . [laughter] you really want an answer to that . I said i gave a speech we could go about this. The other guys are morons on the trail. Would you like to do . He must commit suicide. What would you like to do . I have a rope, i have a gun. Bush reshoot affair quiet obviously a big to differ. Ive are the first part, but not the second part. Up i ran this campaign, i would be fired up enough to never work again. Im voting for harry truman. We have time for one more question. If we can get the microphone to the gentleman in the middle who was in a bad geography and probably wont have another chance. Hank, i see the photo of Prime Minister netanyahu and president clinton. I was wondering, why did clinton lie tonight and yahoo . He told them after the wide plantation accord that he was wary pollard and uptodate grandma was signed, he reneged on it. Pattern of you associate the question. I suggest you ask to go to jeanneau this house and move on the lawn until he stops the nonsense hes been doing with the help of the National Security establishments for the last 26 years. I think worth. This 50 minute event begins with an introduction by the councils chairman, patricia patterson. Good morning everyone. I welcome you to the series endowment lecture. With the help of many new in this room, it has established several years ago to bring people of great as he does become issues. And we certainly have an outstanding start in that department today. Roxane farmanfarmaian is an affiliated lecture at the Political International Relations Department at cambridge university. She is also affiliated as a middle east scholar at the institute of politics at the university of utah, which is closely at the middle east center there in utah, which interestingly is the oldest middle east center in the country. She has also a fellow of the Al Jazeera Research and spent last summer and is very excited about projects to drink cambridge and al jazeera. Shes a specialist on strategic affairs, particularly relations with media neighbors to the European Union and United States. Roxanne is inside im their worst articles on the islamic revolution, soil economy, security profile and particularly its Current Nuclear standoff with the west. Roxane is not only qualified to speak today because of her education and experience, but also because of her heritage. Roxanne is a member of the family that goes back to the year 900 became in the 18th century the family of persia and continued until the shots came in. She was born in tehran. Her mother is american. Her father was persian and she corrupt in holland and lived in iran during her revolution afterwards. She was there in 1979 and chose to study and report on the revolution. She published a weekly magazine at that time called the iranian. Shes a frequent speaker and media commentator, peeling regularly on npr, the bbc and outstanding shows in the u. K. She is here as the keynote speaker at the World Affairs council of the committee on foreign relations. She obtained her masters of philosophy and phd from cambridge and her undergraduate degree from princeton. Roxane and i have been dear friends for 18 years and i can tell you its exactly that long since her brother married my daughter at that time. I present roxane farmanfarmaian. Dr. Farmanfarmaian. [applause] what a pleasure it is to be here today. Thank you so much, Pat Patterson for that wonderful introduction and for the World Affairs council for making this trip. I wanted to make sure that you have a look at the map. Its a pocketsized map so that everything i talk about today becomes manageable and understandable. Two years ago, if we have had the conversation about the middle east, it would been such a different conversation. It has had since then the air of spring come in with no predictions and such huge changes to our world. And we need to keep our eye on the ball. Because if we take it off now, we will have a retrying of the middle east map. Now, american policy under the direction of president obama is taking a pair that towards asia. But we are not going to be leaving the middle east and. And ill tell you why. Its not because of oil, although thats an issue. Its not because the class is civilization. Theres a more recent incident, where libya is certainly keeps us on our toes. But its because of an emerging Second Global cold war that has been triggered by the middle east. Now, but they give you a little bit of context. And you know, context is sort of like underwear. You dont need a lot of it. In the past thought of the great powers, like russia, europe in the past. Today, china, need india. In another set the been named powder with the maritime powers, like brittany is to be our today, the United States. And then, there is an american and he put these two ideas together. And where the two great powers, the land power and d. C. Power come together, he called the shout about. And the middle east is located in one of the worlds great shutterbugs. The interesting thing is about them is that small states have the ability to shift the power from one large side to the other, simply because it depends on which side theyre on or which side they decide to shift two. In the middle east, the old part with syria and is today. But, after the fall of the soviet union, after the end of the cold war, there was another heart. Since the entire east were taking place at that time, when the circulation state joined the middle east, when afghanistan pushed the edge of the middle east. And so today, we have a second part inside the middle east and that is iran. And those two cards, with their particular allies are causing this growing Second Global cold war. Now the first indication we have is that is the reincarnation of the second arab cold war. This we know weve heard about is the conflict, the proxy worth you will between iran and saudi arabia. In pattern, they are very much on the first arab cold war, where we had the allies of the United States in the last in the form of the sunni monarchies, led by saudi arabia. Again, the soviet backed secular radicals. Second force redrawing the map. There, of course, is a different kind of structure, it is a force for it hope as well as instabilityd. It is something that has begun a messy process of democracyization theres a great deal of a sense of danger involved with it and where these two forces overlap their [inaudible] between the arab spring and the second arab cold war is syria. What we need to ask ourself is those beginning to shift this map are are there others. I would of course there are others. I would suggest were seeing an entire new set of relationships inside the middle east. The place is turning like a kaleidoscope. Same pieces, different design. We never know where theres going to be another twist. Are there new relationships that are being set up that are possibilitily indicate that the middle east itself is going to take care of the problems . Or does the old moderate versus the radical paradigm still hold . I would say that a very good way of looking at the middle east is in the form of five emerging now we know about the first one. Thats the shii had crescent. We know about that. That is irans game. The key to that is more recently has been the role that iraq is playing in that crescent. It now links iran, iraq, syria, and lebanon all in a continue tick use set of masses. And one has to think its not just bolstered by comments sectarian views by common shii had views. Syrian and iran came friends not bus because they were shii had is that from irans perspective the alawite shii had were so they couldnt imagine looking at it a common religion. The father of Bashar Alassad had to have alawites recognize that the muslim religious practice in order to become president of syria. So they are quite far apart. But they share common ideology. Secure ya supported iran during the iraniraq war because it hated iraq at that time. Syria and iran share antiamericannism, israeli substitute. They dont want a disom nation of american are tech chiewr. They share a common front. So the shii had question. The second is a growing sunni crescent with a [inaudible] on to saudi arabia and down to the coast that i call the oil coast. We see [inaudible] fighters moving from libya and across saudi arabia through iraq and in to syria increasingly to join a sectarian war. The opposition is syria is increasingly being joined by the extremist forces. Its one of the reason its dpiflt for us to support them. Saudi arabia and [inaudible] are providing small arms there are lots of russians in syria, and theyre against antisecurity counsel very often has the base of the idea they dont want to get involved in a great war over syria. Theyre actually supporting. I have a syrian student i talked to couple of days ago he was saying syria in theres no syria. We think of ourself as [inaudible] as [inaudible] but we do not know what the word syria means. So outside intervention is a tough idea when it comes to syria. Its not very welcoming. This is no when in fact. The fight remains [inaudible] as we see the see had and sunny crees sets collide, they are colliding in syria. In the context of a growing second arab cold war and the arab spring. The third crescent is israel. In the wake of the arab spring israel is feeling very isolated. For many domestic reasons, its trying to keep some of the own problems off of the theater of Media Attention at the moment, and it has in many ways used the prioritization of the Nuclear Issue in iran to do that. But its real interest is europe, and finally, it has the means to join europe. So its crescent goes from israel through cypress, on to greece, which it is seen as a huge opportunity in the wake of the recession and itses based on mediterranean gas. Finally, israel has a Natural Resource that the europeans need and which it can sell and will tie it at last to the group of people it feels so much closer to than Anyone Around the middle east. [inaudible] president morsy has turned out to be an unexpected and welcome leader in this camp. Muslim brotherhoods it an organization that has offices in many places of the middle east, the people know it, its old in many way its quite trusted. An its politically experienced in the position of having been in the opposition. So it actually knows what an opposition is supposed to whefn it know no long is in the opposition. Now the question, of course, is will they adopt an extremist agenda now that they are in power as president warned as president mubarak warned us . My view is that president morsy is actually taking rather a middle of the road line. Hes acting very statesmen like. Hes invited turkey, saudi arabia, and iran to negotiate together over syria. On the premise that if we leave any of those four players out, the cost is syrian lives. In the past, was interesting though is turkey would have lead this offense, but its now egypt. Throwing off the old [inaudible] and beginning to take on the leadership of the middle east which is putting turkey on the back foot and saudi arabia. Turkey has perhaps been the greatest loser of this entire set of two years. Zero problems with neighbors no longer because its having problems on the border with syria. The perfect model post arab spring, well, its having difficulty maintaining itself under the particular political and geostrategic pressures. And its increasingly having trouble with the kurds further southeast on the border. That leads us to the crescent. The greater curd stan crescent to the south of turkey. And in fact, this is our real interstate war of the whole region. This is where 500 people among are being killed according to tours own figures. Its not getting very much attention as a serious border war. What what happened is the syrian kurds have basically become independent. They have turned to the iraq kurds who have domination in the north of iraq in the Kurdish Regional government, iraqi kurds are providing arms, money, encouragement. This is inspiring new activity by the kurds along the Turkish Border the pkk to start rising up and encouraging the bombing down coming down. Its having five significant inpacts. First, a major break down between the kurds in the knot of iraq and baghdad. We are seeing they are really significantly adding to the growing sectarian war were seeing in iraq. The second. The enormous amount of bombing on the border. The third, its causing a break down between turkish and iraqi relationships. Seriously causing that supportive structure to crumble. [inaudible] they are pitting the great powers against each other who are their allies. What were seeing is increasing international standoffs in the security counsel which has not been able to develop a single platform to solve the problem of syria or to the contain the nuclear stand off with iran. We have seen the resignation of kofi annan and the statement now csh who was previously a special representative for the u. N. In a palestinian and iraq. His job is as strongly not just keep the forces in syria coming together and possibly to reach an agreement, but to draw some Common Ground among the great powers in the security counsel. If he is not successful, what does a Second Global cold war look like . Lets look at the situation in israel. I would say its quite unlikely prior to the president ial election. But it may not wait very much further after that all before the end of the year. If it does, it will catch the United States very vulnerable and ill tell you why. We still have troops in [inaudible] now the taliban and the iranian are not friends. But they are neighbors. And the iranians can always pull in a couple of favors from the taliban particularly its against the United States. I would argue if there is an attack on iran prior to our withdrawal from afghanistan, its going to be a very, very bloody affair. Now an Israeli Attack would certainly broaden the syrian war and begin to move war from damascus to teheran, through baghdad and down again. Very likely it would extend that ridge all the way over to lebanon and pit israel and lebanon in to a war there too. Sure there would be instability in the gulf. Yes, it would cause enormous spike in oil prices. But the key is that an israeli strike on iran would finally give us the public justification to develop a bomb. Now there is no israeli strike the tension in the security counsel between the great powers still turns out to be significant. What we see is a waiting game between iran and the United States. What we see is that today in the midst of the worst sanctions if has ever had, iran is still importing 1. 3 Million Barrels of oil a day. This is not a country that cannot survive just on the oil its making. The income it gets off oil is all in dollars. Yes, the is plummeting. Yes, its gotten lots of foreign currency to back it up. India, it has talked in to paying iran for the oil in dollars as well. China is paying iran quite a bit of both for the oil. Iran has been sanctioned for decade. It has some clue as to how to get around sanctions. And it has friend behind it as well. These friends are playing americas game with israel at the back at the moment simply to see how long the sanctions can go. But little by little the shanghai cooperation counsel to the east of iran the bricks which have tried to find some agreement between the west and iran over Nuclear Power in the past, theyre going kick in at the certain point. Irans friends get tired of having the sanction go on and on. Its one of the things we saw in 2003 before the innovation the supporters of the those sanctions began to step back and those sanctions began to crumble and what was our option . [inaudible] inside the security counsel among the great powers of the world. And what we see; therefore, this whole region is really just one large price. What we have a turning kaleidoscope of [inaudible] surrounded by a new era of cold war. Intercepted with an arab spring, in the context of a shatter welt belt within a larger growing global cold war. Now is it all bad news . [laughter] i dont like the sad story. I prefer the phrase in the best hotel marigold, it will all turn out right at the end. It its not all right. Its not the end. [laughter] so if we keep our distance, and make sure that other great powers keep their distance too if we dont insist as the worlds great superpower to be in the middle of things at all times, and we try to ensure that there is not an escalation of conflict in the region, this will allow the state of the middle east to tackle some of their own problems on their own turf in their own time. Now im not saying theyre not going to make mistakes. And im not saying that its not messy. The arab spring, however, has shown that exceptionalism is not a valid concept. Arabs, muslims can want dignity, citizens rights, and democracy. On top of that, there has been a constant trend in the region for greater democratic practice. And we have seen it nonstop over decades. We may not have noticed it, it doesnt mean it didnt come before. What it does say let me mention perhaps just a few is this has been an ongoing problem. In 1980, for example, the al jeer rans rose up and established somewhat [inaudible] and somewhat freer set of elections. In lebanon, we know it had a cedar revolution and got rid of syria off of its territory in iran we had the Green Movement which took place in 2009. In egypt, there was the [inaudible] movement and the we are all [inaudible] movement and those were what lead to the outburst and the success of the square. In tunisia we had major Labor Movement uprising and it lead to the [inaudible] despite our plans on the outside for the need for greater democracyization in the middle east, we see that consistently they have risen up themselves and tried to address the problems on their own. And they both dont do so. The way to redraw a map that is perhaps got greater hope in it is not to expect it wont be messy. Not to expect it will take place tomorrow. But if we can exercise leadership to avoid a Second Global cold war on the international scale, we might see another surprise as great as the arab spring. It may turn out right in the end. [applause] lets give the student the first question, if we might. Why would a nofly scone in nato air strikes not work in syria as they did in libya . Im glad you asked that question. Libya is nothing like syria. First of all, syria as an army five times the size as gaffe daffys of a my. Second of all, libya sits right smack in the middle of the mediterranean. Which still in many ways is europes lake. Syria sits in the center of not fly to international forces. A nofly zone would mean having to exert the power to ensure that nofly zones hold. And that begins to mean bringing in significant hardware from outside. Now repeatedly there has been increasing hitting turkey and turkey has retaliated and very importantly called on nato back it up. They go ahead and certainly given the lots of rhetorical support. But still its just not a welcoming set up for any european or American Power to go in and one of the reasons theres a very major possibility that china and russia but particularly russia will just simply not accept that this time around. Another significant difference from the way it was in libya. Lets take questions from the audience. We have a question back here and one here. Well work around the room. Thank you. My question is on the [inaudible] movement. Do you see them as a big threat as theyre gaining more and more power in the region . The question is was is the movement a real threat. Is it gaining more power and the short answer is yes, and yes. There is a longer answer. And that is the movement up until quite recently had no political agenda. This has been something that come out since actually 2003 and the war in iraq. They were have a quiet movement. Their view is now being expressed as an alternative to the Muslim Brotherhood. And so it is going through significant changes itself. It is fracturing rapidly. Were seeing an enormous number of movements. But they have very little Common Ground. Except for the fact theyre quite rigid in their interpretation of the qor ran and the fact races of practice of society and the exercise of law. We find that whefn they win a larger section of the vote, for example, in egypt, its not because theyre politically able to translate a great deal of that. Its a Coalition Force of coming together. And the good side of that is theyre learning the difficulties of what it means to be elected to politics. Suddenly everything that seems so black and white in practice turns out to be affected by a budget, having a Different Group over here and needing to make a comprise with the more moderate Muslim Brotherhood leadership. Suddenly its turning out to be quited difficult to be a hard and fast if you were in government. Now the threat that i think we are seeing is with the [inaudible] various very extremist groups that are hooking up with al qaeda and were beginning it get a rim southern rim lower algeria a lot of the regions and very sadly this is still heavily sport supported by saudi money. It overlaps of a great deal of saudi values. And gray great number of the groups have officerrings or hubs inside sue i did. Theyre funding sadly continues to be quite vigorous. We have a question right here. If you can wait for the microphone. Let me ask you this question from another student. Yesterday president ial candidate mitt mitt romney suggested he wanted to arm the rebels in syria to fight against the government. How would Congress Respond to this . How would your view in the American Public respond . The question is you can easily hear that one. The answer to that is my view is i cant speak for the american congress. I do know that the Opposition Forces the syrian army, the Syrian National congress have got a good set of play through the media. Who wouldnt support bashar . Come on. But what one of the problems is and it goes back to the fist question, this is not an opposition anything like the opposition weve seen either in tunisia or in egypt. It is fractured, it is in some ways quite violent syria itself had no real institutions of golf nouns its been able to practice. Its more like iraq in all Government Systems [inaudible] and we finally have no idea what the deals are that are being drawn across these regions through the extremist groups that are in iraq and in saudi and the result is we have no idea where those arms would actually go. That, i think, is one of the Great Questions we need to start before sending in everything. One of the problems about theyre being traded like mad and theyre being used often against us and its easy to i can certainly understand where the frustration of candidate romney come from. Theres no question we all feel that. Its complex, however, theres no real guarantee that any arms that would go in there would accomplish any goals they were set out to achieve. [inaudible] this concerns the International Pressure against Iranian Nuclear enrichment. Are there alternatives to captions should fail, other than war. When did we say sanctions have failed . We dont have an easy answer and ill tell you why. Our biggest problem is what we agreed and every member has agreed is the Nuclear Nonproliferation treaty. Basically that treaty says you can develop Nuclear Power for peaceful purposes. And the problem is, any Nuclear Power thats developed has the possibility of dual use. So the problem is the treaty. Iran is a great target. It has not been a friend of the United States for over three and a half decades, and dot many things we can justify for sanctioning it, and for going to war with it, even on ground theyre not the nuclear program. But if its really to stop Nuclear Development by regimes we dont like and i put pakistan certainly as a possible candidate for that we need to realize we have a treaty that does not fit our interests and our strategy. Id like to know what might be in the minds of the israeli leadership for the following three scenarios. One, an Israeli Attack on iran shortly after the reelection of the current u. S. President. Two. An Israeli Attack on iran during a lame duck after the election of a new u. S. President. Or, three, no attack. Okay. Thrilling to be in an audience and asked difficult questions. An attack after the current president is elected, certainly would fit in the larger picture of why it would attack if either candidate was elected, and that is that israel has a fear of existential threat in terms of iran, and it feels very much as though the control it had in helping to determine the strategic architecture of the region with its friendship with the United States, is slipping away from it. The arab spring and the second arab cold war take place, and so it is very concerned about that, and its also extremely concerned that iran does not develop a bomb under the aegis of the United States looking elsewhere as in the case of pakistan. The u. S. Assured jerusalem it was not going to let pakistan develop the bomb, and one day the pakistanis did and that was the end of that picture. So the israelis do not want that to happen again. And one of the reasons is and this is the existential part of their argument i dont think i would agree that really iran is going to necessarily send a bomb straight over to israel if it happens to develop one. What the existential threat relies on is the fact that israel is the only middle east power at the moment to have a bomb. And if iran gets it, the entire thing shifts because theyre on opposite sides of the great power alliances and israel would no longer be able to dominate militarily in a theater it has been more or less able to evenly dominate simply because it has that final nuclear capability. What was the third one . If it doesnt attack at all . In my talk, then we get into a waiting game. The United States is very committed to iran not getting a nuclear weapon. It would be an incredibly embarrassing thing for us if it did. So its not in our interest to allow that to happen. And it would be more an issue of the United States and israel working out Common Ground to see how the situation in iran develops. And my view is, were not going do see a whole lot hoff lot of changes inside iran. Iran has proventobe resilient against outside pressure, and all these sanctions in fact have helped protect an incredibly big economy. Its been the equivalent of putting duties and tariffs on an industry a Manufacturing Base until theyve gotten big enough to compete on the international market, such as the asian states did when they took those off we had the asian miracle. And in many ways were seeing the same kind of economy working inside iran. Its actually a very vibrant economy, just lacks an awful lot of financial mechanisms at the moment and a lot of raw imports at this point. But its actually quite a robust economy. It makes its the second Largest Consumer of cars and until the major sanctions came down it was the second larger importer of cars, above what it made. Its the second largest producer of steel, and imported more steel than any other state in the region on top of that. Now, of course, its not importing the steel anymore. The steel it was importing is not helping it make as many cars, and its a feeling that sanctions theres no question that this is a big and very, very active economy, and so it was still got an awful lot of oil dollars daily pouring in. You have the last question. Thank you for a really interesting presentation. I am interested in the roles china and syria have played in this situation with syria. So id like to know your opinion on what, if anything, the United States can do to move china or russia off of their position of supporting iran or in European Union, the best outcome is with we stay out of and it let the region take care of its problem . How will they deal with what comes after if that works as the muslim solution. The question was, what can the United States do and how what is the reason behind what russian and chinas approach to be doing these resolutions at the Security Council level. And i think that in many ways this captures the issues that the region is presenting to us. For us it in many ways is a place we think of very much our own, thanks to the fact we have had our own men and women in iraq and theyre still in afghanistan, but in the end, it is our far abroad. It is russias near abroad. At it too close for comfort to have the United States working inside the region without russian input. Now, we were there at a time of great russian weakness. Its not so weak anymore. So that exercise, especially in place like sirarch as syria, which over the long soviet syria relationship, means theyre hundreds of thousands of russians living inside syria. So my view is that we need to identify and bolster those that we know are allies inside the region. I think we need to put our eyes back on iraq. Iraq is in very bad shape and getting worse. It still doesnt have electricity 24 7. It does not have employment. Its got a Prime Minister that basically has taken over almost every single one of the capabilities of Saddam Hussein had, and its got a brewing second sectarian war, and its proving to be this transit area, and i think we would do well by bolstering that democracy, not relying just on elections but ensuring theres the rule of law. We cant even Start Talking about democracy until the person on the street has the same rights as the person in the Prime Ministership and anywhere else and we dont have that in iraq. And so i think that would stem a great deal of the problem. Stop the transition state that iraq is in. Would cut the shia in half and cut the sunni crescent and give a sense of our willingness to support our principles with real action rather than simply taking a military approach. Thank you very much