It also created a symbiotic relationship between cattle and one that existed is. The common has to treat cattle futures and corn futures together. So youve got the happy farmer selling a lot more corn. Who was the nappy click the americans. They werent accustomed to this fatty beef. Over time, our case has adjusted to the point where its codified into the usda. The highest level now signifies that it is small marveled among other things and we are only now getting back to this tradition of grass that beef. He sometimes even on restaurant menus within certain farms considered to be a desirable quality right now. A lot of people dont realize is for going back to our roots. I am going to present five secret about our food. Some of these are not necessarily well kept a great, but nevertheless. So this photo here, this is the chicago mercantile. Extruders circa 1949. Some people may be sanely treated eggs . Yeah, we did. There was a time when it is very active in first i could market. In fact, multiple a contracts that were traded. Id mention this because one of the secret to what trades and what doesnt treat its volatility. The more often something trades, the better it is for making money. It no longer treats. We still have the shakes. There was a time when eggs are highly seasonal. The hunt of lameness ring, maybe summer into winter months you didnt have a period they were very hard to get. Some very smart people figured out how to create storage eggs and not involved taking fresh eggs and coating them with a thin layer of Vegetable Oil and putting them into cold storage. Were talking prerefrigeration here. In the hands are no longer lane, the same smart people take those eggs out at origins altmann to restaurants, two hotels, to all the people who could afford higher price is. Take it not further, we also have frozen it. Those were sold primarily to baking companies, Mickey Manning and later displaced by power eggs. Eventually it did increase his, advances in technology, and animal husbandry, we now have a yearround. There is in any kind of volatility. If you want next to him about your supermarket anytime you want. Over time, frozen a contracts were phased out. We no longer have a contracts trading at all. The same thing also applies to port early futures. Again, advances in agriculture and Refrigeration Technology he peered pork belly stock trading last year after a 50 year run. Cattle futures, though still trade. I believe it has a lot to do with not only the fact there is this time into corn, but theres also other factors that influence volatility in cattle. Things like matt codices and other diseases. And of course the other impact of consumer demand can be understated. Secret number two, this photo is the opening day of the live hog contractor chicago mercantile exchange, 1966. You can see the chat board there. It can become a relic of the past. Lets talk about how farmers use Commodity Prices to make decisions. I had a conversation in the course of researching the book is chat hard. His assistant professor at Iowa State University and is a trademark specialist. Just to read to you his comments, as a farmer i can decide whether to plan soybeans or corn, which will provide a better precise for me at harvester i can affect the amount to grow. Features provide a signal. Is it not a signal . No, but the best they have. People are going to put a contracts and make trade. It represents an actual transaction that will occur. As a farmer, you have to make that decision. Should i plant soybeans or should i plant corn . Should i use the same finite space to raise cattle or to grow Something Else . I mean, these are important decisions when you try to figure out what to plant. Food prices can influence what gets plan it. Okay, number three. Any guesses on which product is the most traded in america click i heard someone say corn. Yes, cornice number one. Number two . Any guesses . Soybean, yes. It is a marker. The reason is that necessarily that we eat so much corn for each so many soybean ourselves, but its also because livestock bans these products. Its also consumed by cattle, by pigs. It is also made into corn syrup. It is made into corn oil. Its made into ethanol and other products. In soybeans. Same thing. Soybeans are consumed a lot by poultry. Poultry no longer trades. Theres been a poignant time when turkey futures trader just in time for things living. By poultry is the number one consumer of soybeans. At the same time, also dearie has soybean oil to aid in the production. Just like we have a corn and cattle hedge, there are also experts to recommend putting together a soybean futures accounts publicly traded companies that rationalize and poultry production like tyson is also another class trade. There also used for noneditable projects. Its important. Traders bet on what you eat and what your foodies, too. Secret number four of five. For a moment about how incredibly mad and it would be if he went to the supermarket and the prices of cost ethos up and down the same way they do in the commodities market every day. Up and down, up and down. You would know what to pay for food. You would know how to budget. It would drive people to supermarket crazy. It would drive people at our backs crazy. You wouldnt know what kind of pricey set. It is good the commodities market helps to smooth out the prices over time and they dont really do factored into supermarket pricing. At least they dont get factored in right away. There tends to be a lack of the year to year and a half of thursdays same way. You will eventually see prices going higher or lower. It will take a year or year and a half. So this kind of pricing information is useful for manufacturers as a predictive tool. They use it to help decide what the market will bear for their product when they bring something to the market. A process called price discovery. It also helps restaurants and manufacturers and its profits. I also for the book talked with commodities expert olap, an interesting job. He worked with companies to Restaurant Companies and food manufacturers to help them manage food costs. Use the commodities market is an important tool. If we are talking about hamburgers again. Just imagine what the impact of the 25 spike in cattle prices would be if you were the owner of a hamburger chain. It gives you a couple of options you can look into the future and understand where prices are likely to go come even if it is the simplest higher or lower, let alone higher by how much. You can think about raising menu price is, assuming it not going to affect the customers. You can think about taking changes to the product. Will they be smaller hamburger patties . Can think about making substitutions instead of having hamburgers, maybe youll have turkey burgers. Maybe ill change the entire concept of your restaurant. Considered a hamburger chain, no have one of these casual solid chance. Kind of an interesting right now. I recently went to a conference called star chefs and sat in on a really interesting presentation, and how to make the ultimate Fried Chicken. The chef who was doing the demo explains that he was about to a Fried Chicken restaurant because you said i just cant handle the way beef prices and poor prices bounce up and down. Poultry prices are a lot more stable. He made the prediction right then and there that we are going to be seeing a lot or poultry only Restaurant Concepts opening up as the price of chicken is so much more stable compared to other proteins. Interesting. Im a much smaller scale how they are impacting him. It will impact the 90s when i go home to new york. So all of you when it comes to packaged food, theres also an impact. And it varies depending on what the product is. Youre talking about a hamburger . A hamburger is beef. Its a very important input. When you are talking about is like a box of cereal, it might be a very small input. This comes from the u. S. Da. When you buy packaged goods, like a box of cornflakes, only 15 to 20 cents of every dollar goes to that commodity. Any thoughts on where else the money goes . Advertising, packaging, processing, labor, real estate, if youll, all very important input to go into this. When you get down to the come you spend more packaging than you do on the raw commodities. Secret number five. Although i dont personally take a stance on whether the commodities market is good or bad, there are people who want to cut the middleman out altogether and optout of buying commodity food. I mean again, if you want to, the secret is out there. You can buy direct from your green market, farmers, work with small artisans. Theres a lot of things you can do to cut the middlemen out of the process. Join a csa. Again, that is only if you want to optout of buying goods. The option is there if you want. So with that, i am happy to take questions. Thank you very much, cara. I think you kept your presentation within 30 minutes. Thank you very much. Before we start with the q a, i would like to say the info has told me to many folks at the info shop if youre interested. So with that, lets open it up. Any questions . Please go to the night. If you have questions, go to be there might come the right or left. And maybe we will take a couple in time to let and go back to cara. Please introduce yourself. Ladies and gentlemen, i am the president of this international group. My company is in the districts. I forecast commodity. Thank you for your wonderful presentation on food. What cannot your presentation, you talked about it in the commodity. I was a wonderful presentation. I come from kenya. What would your advisors say on commodities . Talk more about britain and the United States. What would be the best commodity for africa, looking at african growth, development . We have coffee in kenya, tea and other products. What would you advise the best commodity to be in the United States and around the world . Thank you. Afternoon. My name is joe murray prescriber first new rules for global finance. I am curious, we have heard of commodities as a way to diversify your investments. But then we are also hearing a lot from developing country folks as commodities are used as a tool for investment. Its making prices on food and fuel much higher in importing countries and much more volatile. I am wondering if you have a comment on not. Thank you. What i might start with the first one about commodities to trade in africa or kidnap. Again, im going to preface this by saying i am not an economist. I am a food writer. But i can tell you in the course of my research, i found that cassava is a product but a pair of money is available in quite a number of countries as a staple, a starchy root that doesnt get trade here, but apparently is in Good Standing to potentially become a commodity in the future. Apparently it is rather an atrocious, grows well, might have implications for being a potato like substitute program like substitute. So that might be number one in my mind. Im sure that coffee cocoa also if it grows, if theres a market for it, if there is demand for it, some sort of volatility is a potential candidate. And then the second question, will seep in getting this right. The question was about volatility. Im not sure if im getting this right. Okay, so how commodities markets contribute to volatility. I think that theres certainly a correlation between Commodity Prices and volatility. What we stand i may be repeating myself, but what weve seen is over the long term, it hopes to soon about volatility. We dont have the same ups and downs when it comes to the actual products we see on the shelf. I certainly would expect we will continue to see volatility day today and commodities markets. I dont perceive that ever going away. I think of it did, commodities markets themselves would go away because thered be fewer fewer opportunities to make products. With that, i am happy to take more questions. Anymore questions from the audience . Hi, my name is kerry green. Im a food average lawyer with a law in town. I got my start in the wine business actually. So my question actually starts with the wind, which is the great market is very complex market. Sales are obviously very complex market, international issues. Obviously not the commodities market. How do the two relate to each other i guess is my question. Hi. My name is your bond. How do you see fish or seafood . They have a huge volatility. I dont see those in the mayaguez. Do you have any comment . Okay, wine, awesome topic. Thank you. There is not an actual one commodity that is traded in our futures market. However, there is such a thing as a wine futures market and there are investment firms that specialize in wine futures. You probably know this even better than i do, that virgo has a very active futures market. It is not quite the same dang as cattle trades, but there are actual funds that exists to put together opportunities to predict i feel like i should back up for the nonwine folks in the room. Where does maidens told, especially for products like word zero, it is harvested, created, made into wine and put away for a really long time. That creates a really effective futures market. You know you have this product. You dont thought the time it was fantastic or not until much later on when it comes out of the barrel senate put into bottles and you have either a fabulous vintage or maybe a mediocre vintage. That creates tremendous opportunities for betting will it be good, not so good . What will the prices be late . Where i was going with this if there are actual Investment Fund that puts together groups of investors who want to buy a barrel or a palette together and bet than in the future this is going to be an amazing vintage. There are really great opportunities for betting i should stop say betting. For investing in wine is a futures product. And it wouldnt surprise me to see it go the next step and actually become a proper commodities contract in the nottoodistant future. The next question was about fish or seafood. That is very astute to notice that we dont really have any fish futures trading right now. There are shrimp futures that trade some of the the asian markets. We have had, in the past, also shrimp markets here. They didnt do very well. I think frozen shrimp is what was treated here in the 60s. We have a hot fresh fish. I now can turn a bad proposed as a commodity. Didnt do well as a rule. Cant products dont do well. Canned tomato sauce and didnt do very well. I suspect someone try to bring that canned tuna. Same thing. On the sustainability sustainability issues around fish. I think there certainly could be a market. I could see sam and futures being particularly fertile ground. So we have food and average lawyer. I didnt even know that there was such a sub category above. So we are learning so much today. I see one more questionnaire. I am judy newton and i am not employed at the world bank. Im a food writer and also the rocket rider for the only farmers market. He touched her stand on commodity foods. I wonder if you have any sense of how the local movement from the socalled specialty farmers. They are affecting the markets now. Do they have been a kind of effect at all . Do you think it might in the future . Okay, so the impact of noncommodity items on commodity items. Certainly there is an impact, absolutely. I dont think that it is so much sand and depressing day today as much as it is seen in terms of consumer demand. There is so much that happens off market it drives through turns to an enormous degree. Going back even to Grass Fed Beef for a moment. The fact that there is the swelling current of demand for Grass Fed Beef is starting small. It is starting with small conscientious consumers and table restaurant. While it may be a fraction of the market now, i think the larger the impact, the louder the voice instead. It will eventually be in terms of demand and drive prices down for corn fed each. Another important driver of demand, some of the restaurant chains and of course the consumers that make their voices known to the restaurant chain. I read, i believe there was either this week for the previous week, chipotle came out and announced that they were no longer going to have any kind of gml product and theyre offering at their restaurants. Theyre an enormous company. They dont have to do this. Its because they are listening to can him earn his. Because otherwise you dont listen to consumers, youre not going to sell so much. Its important. We need our voice is heard as can seamers. Hi, i wanted to know what was your analysis on the 2008 christ is the nation, which had dramatic effects on the struggle to be able to pay for rice. If you think that such a crisis could happen again, given how the Community Market functions at the moment. Okay, sure to her as i do not have been announced this on the 2008 race crisis. It is one thing ive been watching with interest. I mean, it is incredible what goes on. But other than that, as three prediction as to whether it will happen again, that i leave to step six and other economists in the room. Can i ask a question . The mag i dont know either. I work a lot on nutrition in the agricultural department. Q. In your presentation, i can understand third of the economic antigen is that having an organized commodity market, you know, towards Risk Management, tours stabilizing prices. But i was wondering if you had any thoughts on the Health Implications. I think you were kind of going there to Grass Fed Beef issues. One of the things that i have been told from nutrition guide is the importance of diverse in the diet. It goes very much about how the Agriculture Sector has been taught to think that we are really asserted. More for the commodities because it shows d. O. It shows profitability. And then we have the nutritionist and that is all fine. You are producing the screen with higher yields. But every person has to eat a balanced diet. Do you have any thoughts on how Commodity Markets for this kind of Risk Management tools could potentially have an ipod to help them occasions clip the mac thats a really interesting question. I feel like you probably know a lot more about this than i do. I think one way to frame this discussion is to think about not just i dont think that Health Implications are factored into commodities price is. But when i look back at what has gone on throughout the years, decades, centuries am a what comes to mind for me is that the Health Issues have been left out of it altogether. It is strictly about pricing. Some of the most interesting discussions has to do with the scandals. I think they are just crazy scandals that are and i could devote an entire talk just does. They dont come back to Health Issues necessarily. Any other questions . Please go ahead. Speenine just speaking a scandals, would you mind telling us about the great onion scandal . A new someone was going to take the bait. Thank you. I can tell you about a couple different scandals. They are outlined in the book in greater detail, but the onion scandal took place in the 1950s and it almost served to tank the entire chicago mercantile exchange. There was a saying at the time administrators for getting together and there is charging to corner the market that the prices were sinking so rapidly that the bags at the end and scheme and were worth more than the onions themselves. What happened eventually was america had such a terrible reputation as a result for a speculative egg market, which was slowly going away in a speculative egg market, which was eventually outlawed. It is still a federal misdemeanor to trade and teachers in the United States. As a result, chicago mercantile has a completely switch direction and eventually became a center for trade in livestock, port valles. You have this enormous divide between these two commodities markets. He had the green treaters on one side of chicago in a were in general the wife of traders. They wouldnt get their hands dirty. On the other side of town, you have the livestock traders. These were more connecting groups. Lots of the time in an irish and that was really what it was known for her, and this divide between the two commodities markets, what they traded and inherited the trading. Really fascinating. One of the other scandals that really fascinates me, and we are coming up on the 50th anniversary so it is kind of fun to talk about. There was a great soybean oil scandal, which has been almost completely dwarfed by the headlines around jfks assassination. As it should be. That is a pretty big deal, arguably one of the biggest deals. But there is a trader named tina angeles who called himself the salad oil came. He traded cottonseed futures and soybean oil futures. He created this incredible cloak and dagger scheme in his white house. I am greatly convincing menace. He would have inspectors out to his warehouse in new jersey. They would come to inspect these enormous tanks, which were allegedly full of salad oil. They would be about as full of water and not full of oil, which was on top of water obviously. He had all sorts of schemes. He would do things like the inspectors have time to check tanks and a check one tank, which should be full of oil. They had rates of pipes across the top of the building. While they were out to lunch, they would go across to another tank and come back and inspect the tank. When it blew up, you blew it bigtime. Its a 20 different Brokerage Firms out of business, including a unit of american express. People at millions and millions of dollars. It was honest and one of the biggest candles of its time. Its been almost forgotten to history again because it happened at the same time as jfks assassination. Im going to stop rambling now. Wonderful. The onion scandal there are others. Any other questions . You cannot kara about her cocktail recipe if you like. The mac will take it off line. Any other questions . If not, i think i would like to have you all think me join me in thanking kara for a very stimulating discussion on a secret man show the secret Financial Life of food. [applause] Nile Gardiner talks about what conservatives today can Margaret Thatchers life and time in office. Next on booktv. He says about hour. Thank you very much for joining us at the Heritage Foundation today. Im going to kick off with a tribute video to margaret hatcher, commemorating her achievements and legacy put together by the Heritage Foundation. We are going to start with this short video. In the spring of 1979, in the wake of britains winter of discontent, Margaret Thatchers wonderlands via victory. The sick man of europe president come to to be known. She refused to accept that dk was inevitable in the job of the British Government was to manage decline. Britain, she believes could do better. Sums were supposed to believe that people should be numbered in a state computer. We believe they should be individual. No one is quite like anyone else. However much the socialists may pretend otherwise. We believe that everyone has the right to be unequal. That to us, every human is the only important. While she had no shortage of critics. I detest every one of the domestic policies. The honorable gentleman knows that i have the same content for his socialist policies as the peep hole. She was secured a better conservative vision was right. The mac one of the things is about how much of your money should be spent by the state and how much you should keep to spend on your family. If you wish to spend more, do so only by texting you more. Its no good thinking someone else will pay. Thats someone elses view. She knew what ronald reagan. That free markets and free people are the best defense and that peace comes strength, not accommodations. Mr. Speaker, by the buildup of weapons, they are as an aggressor to believe he can achieve this is not an acceptable price. America now stands at a crossroads. One path leads to deficits, decreasing influence in decline. The other, a renewed American Dream we all want. Mr. Chairman, people want to live in peace, real, lasting peace. The peace that cons from independence of the states and being able to run your own life, spend their own money and make your own choice is. And above all, the country which is properly depended against any potential adversary. Is retakes talk of our choices, the legacy of britains iron lady remains a steadfast guy. [applause] i would say Margaret Thatcher is a hard act to follow. Just an incredible lady. I had the honor of working for several years before it moved to the Heritage Foundation is mentioned in 2002. It was a tremendous privilege, just to be in her presence. One of the truly great figures of our time. From a young age, i was a huge admirer of robert thatcher. And as a student in high school i campaigned actively, actually for Margaret Thatcher. I worked in numerous elections. Election campaigns for the british conservative party. As a graduate student at yell, i had a massive post of Margaret Thatcher on my wall. As you can imagine, that was quite usual in a place like yield. Students who come from all over campus just to see it. And i still have that post. Its absolutely fantastic. I wants ticket to see. Is there for a treat come true and i had a phone call after i conceded my doctorate in history, asking if i would be interested in coming in for an interview at Lady Thatchers private office. This was over a decade ago now. Margaret thatcher was working on her final book and she needed someone to assist her with that book. So i went in for an interview. With Lady Thatchers chief of staff. Thatchers chief advisor in the first and interview went very well, fortunately. I was invited back for a second interview with the lady herself. This was truly daunting experience, but also exciting experience. I spent 45 minutes being interviewed by Margaret Thatcher. She used to say that she would decide in 30 seconds whether she likes someone or not. She formed opinions about people and would decide almost on the spot whether she trusted somebody. And so, going in for this job interview, as you can imagine, was quite an extraordinary experience. Fortunately, i think she likes me and i was given the job. She had actually read very closely a book written by my advisor radio, paul kennedy, and during the interview, when i mentioned paul kennedy, she actually said yes, i know that book. And she immediately cut off her chair and she went over to her bookcase in the corner to find the book. She literally went down on her hands and knees, looking for this book. She pulled out firstly another book written by a senior figure in the conservative hardy at the time. I wont name him, but she pulled out the book. She said i dont like that man. She threw the book across the room. She then pulled out paul kennedys book and showed it to me. She had actually marked every page of the book. She used to go through books with a pen, just like this year actually. She would write notes all over them. Fortunately, she actually liked this book and i got the job. So i had the good fortune of working with Lady Thatchers private office in london, which is not far from the tourist nation. Ironically opposite the german embassy. Of course he had very strong opinions about the germans. The new israeli actually a very small, very intimate office actually. There were only three of us on the private staff of Lady Thatchers office on the political side. In addition, they were the secretaries. She had a personal assistant featured in the iron lady sun in case any of you have seen that. She had a Security Team and also sir denis had his Office Around the corner and he was affectionately known by Lady Thatcher as dt. We would all prefer actually to Lady Thatcher as lady t. That is how he would address her. She was actually, i have to say, a remarkably humble and kind person. There were no errors races frankly about Margaret Thatcher. She was actually very downtoearth, individual despite being one of the most famous figures of our time. But at the same time, you know, she was the Marilyn Monroe of the political world. Every time she would get out of her car, she had a jaguar shoes to to in, driven by the tissue is a prominent terrorist target, the doors are extremely thick and heavy, very difficult to open. Every time she got out of her car, heads would turn and she was really like a movie star. One of the most recognizable faces in the world. In the same went for any of her visit to the United States or to europe. Everywhere she went, she was mobbed by crowds of people. He just wanted to get a glimpse of rare, shake her hand. Even with that tremendous fame, she was always very, very humble and kind all of the time. Also their families as well. And you know, she would treat everybody the same. Sometimes she would open the front door of her private office, which was scary, of course, officers are very, very carefully guarded by police with machine guns. Sometimes if she heard a knock on the door and she was done in the lobby, she would actually open the door, much to the consternation of the police. She would then have a chat with the postman delivering the mail. She talked for about 10 minutes or so. She was that kind of person. She had that tremendous, you know, common touch as it were. She treated everybody as though they were special. It was very unclear that she felt that she had done all that she could possibly do for the country, for the sake of conservatism, and i felt in that final meeting that i would never see her coming and unfortunately, she passed away in april. And i attended the absolutely magnificent funeral in st. Pauls cathedral. Tens of thousands of people, hundreds of thousands of people lining the streets of london sharing her across the street. And following in st. Paul which is a beautifully moving ceremony as the casket was carried out by