Michael pillsbury director of the hutson Institutes Center on chinese strategy argues that china has a secret plan to supplant the u. S. As the Worlds Largest superpower by 2049. He makes the case in his book, the hundredyear marathon. He recently talked about his book at the hutson institute in washington d. C. This is an our and a half. Good afternoon. I hope all of you can hear me. I am Husain Haqqani the director for south and central asia here at the Hudson Institute and its a pleasure for me today to host this discussion on the hundredyear marathon, the book by Michael Pillsbury who is now a senior fellow and director for chinese strategy here at the Hudson Institute. Hes a distinguished defense policy adviser former highranking government. He served under the reagan and george h. W. Bush administrations. The book which i commend to everyone in the audience preferably properly bought in hardcover, paid for. Actually reveals how the peoples peoples republic of china census funding has had a longtime goal to establish chinas preeminence and michael thinks it is outwitted the United States in the process. Not long ago i wrote a book on pakistaniu. S. Relations passing passing asked after having served and delusions or to make a similar argument. It seems everybody manages to outwit washington d. C. And here is my take as a foreigner. The reason is we assume that the others basically want the same things as they do so there is an assumption that is what they want so therefore if we could just find and they have a relatively simple word in American Foreign policies since americas preeminence after the Second World War and particularly the superpower has been based on a simple binary. Who can we bomb and had kami take out to lunch . So china is a unique country because its a country that is on the mom left to take out to lunch list and of course the lunch has become a minilunch and far more interesting. Before we get started with michaels comments and my own question and answer with him and opened up to questions and answers from all of you we have a message from congressman folks who is the chairman of the china caucus in the house of representatives. He could not join us in person but his message to us and his comments will be relayed by my colleague carolyn stewart. The press secretary of the Hudson Institute. Indeed. While i regret not be able to join in person today is a pleasure to have this opportunity to share some brief thoughts on the the hundredyear marathon and the contributions of dr. Mike pillsbury to this tremendously important debate about the future trajectory of chinese power. Ive long valued dr. Pillsburys insights on china and the asiapacific region. He combines knowledge of chinese history culture and politics with an understanding of u. S. Security interests and the tools required to protect those interests. Whether as a congressional staffer and member of multiple president ial administrations a consultant to the pentagons office of met assessment or Hudson Institute scholar. Dr. Pillsbury has rendered important contributions to our nations understanding of china and its longterm relationship with the United States. Part of what makes the 100 year marathon such a unique contribution to the literature on sinoamerican relations is mikes recounting of evolution of the issue. Rather than simply choosing a camp and sticking comfortably within it as happens far too often on important foreignpolicy issues mike sees on china changed as the facts on the ground change. His intellectual honestly onesy led him to seek china china as the longterm competitiveness is requiring the serious application of longterm competitive strategies. And he has been a powerful voice articulating what the strategy should look like. As we look at the century ahead it is more important than ever that the u. S. Look to the u. S. China relationship holistic weight and in the context of the longterm extended competition that will play out over multiple areas and over the course of many years. Im committed to ensuring that americas presence in the asiapacific particularly in the military realm remains robust and is continually evolving to meet new challenges. Areas like unmanned aviation the u. S. Is enduring advantage in the undersea domain and are banned in emerging technologies like directed energy must be appropriately resourced. I want to thank you all for the worse you do in promoting strong u. S. National defense in a continued u. S. Presence in the asiapacific. It is americas commitment to the region that is done so much to insure peace and prosperity over the last several decades. We have an opportunity today to put in place policies that will allow this presence to endure for another seven decades and beyond. This is an important book by a serious thinker in the field and his recommendations offered much to consider. Thank you for allowing me to share a few thoughts with you and i think Mike Pillsbury for his invaluable contributions. [applause] i would like Michael Pillsbury to start with a few remarks about his book. As i see it michael that particular question in your book is a discussion of the china dream and how the u. S. May have wittingly or unwittingly help fulfill that dream. A good starting point for your conversation with us would be describing the china dream as you have understood over the years and also to answer the critical question that the book attempts to answer which is what if the china dream is to replace us just as america replaced the British Empire without fighting firing a single shot. Michael pillsbury welcome to this discussion. Thank you ambassador haqqani. I would answer your question about the china dream by explaining a few things that are in the book that i think is new evidence about chinas secret strategy for what china calls the 100 year marathon. This is not my idea. Its a chinese book and i would also point out that today the chinese believe i think correctly that we are in year 65 of the 100 year marathon. That means there are 34 more years to go so there are a lot of things on the american side that i proposed in the last chapter that we could do and one of them is related to what the china dream is because to some degree what you might call the American Dream and the china dream are compatible. Its not a zerosum you cant have your dream if i want to have my dream. The overlap is the focus of a number of organizations here in washington d. C. That i not only praise, i say we have to expand the budget and they have to do more. Its like lighting a a candle instead of praising the darkness and the candle that is already going and several in the recommendations, number one the National Endowment for democracy has done a great deal in china and has to do a great deal more. Its budget began very low. Has the same president it has always had. Hes like a lifetime president for the National Endowment for democracy and a number of speeches about democracy in china he has seens budget grow i think 10 times bigger than i was in the beginning. He attended the oslo ceremony when received the Nobel Peace Prize and was not there because he was in jail. I say a lot in here about the china dream and when i first met him in 1989 when he was at the Tiananmen Square demonstration, acting ambassador at the time. I drove down Tiananmen Square with the flags going. We got out of the car and went to see the students. No one knew of course its very important, no one knew what was going to happen. It appeared to be a peaceful demonstration at Tiananmen Square against corruption of all things. We met with him and the others. I still remember he was a chain smoker. He had aviation glasses on. When the president of the National Endowment for democracy went to oslo he and many other countries who were either there or not theyre true attention from china. The china dream is in fact to have what they call the harmonization or harmony in the world and their position is when this happens by 2049 if not sooner all countries will get along and there wont be organizations like the National Endowment for democracy. There also will not be trouble from the Human Rights Watch from the Amnesty International especially not from radio free asia. I see some people here and around helps me create radio free asia in 1989 as it was resisted strongly by the state department who testified against it. This will destroy u. S. China relations if we broadcast in mandarin about human rights and democracy and various things. So i dont want to give all these organizations names. The u. S. Chamber of commerce has recently joined up. They issued a report about the gangster is a nation of American Companies in china. Trade secrets being stolen Chinese Companies being treated in a very veritable way and American Companies not. The china dream seems to be quite comprehensive. They thought a lot about it. They say dont worry, china will not be a hegemony. There will not be a tyrannical country in moving the way america has been and i wanted to mention a couple of chinese names i hope you will all remember and keep with you. They are in the book and they are important to understand chinese thinking. They are both in the fourth town town, thus falling tone. One of them is pa. It also means tyrant. Its the way america leads the world but china when it has double or triple our Economy Today it has surpassed us according to the World Bank Last month. The chinese economist by 2030 it will be double. This is part of the china dream. The chinese economy will be double us by 2030 and by 2049 the end of the 100 year marathon from the books title chinas economy will be triple or more our economy. But they say china will not be a ba. China will use its virtue, its soft power comments natural attractiveness and perhaps military forces when there is disharmony and countries do not go along with the virtuous leadership. But this is all part of their vision of the china dream that in some books they actually talk openly about the american model how america surpassed england and Great Britain without firing a shot by a series of techniques techniques. The chinese believe their studies of american and british relations have shown. There is one book in particular called the eclipse of britain by a british professor who explains that in london for this 100 year marathon the americans ran against england. There was an antiamerican faction that said dont let these americans get out of hand. We have to crush them or use force against them in the caribbean for example and that mama during the time of Theodore Roosevelt but there was also a proamerican faction that said no america is just like us. They are surpassing us and its no big deal because they are us and the chinese view seems to be the 100 year marathon should not have the use of force as part of it ideally and they are quite sensitive in their writings to who is to in washington d. C. Who is the healthy forests. A friend of china someone who needs to be supported and praised and visit beijing and who was an unhealthy force. Who is trying to set back this 100 year marathon process and that is a whole chapter i give him what i call the message place the Message Police that is becoming more and more difficult. The reason i wrote the book come its becoming more and more difficult to get just the straight facts about u. S. China relations because there is so much spin applied by either the Chinese Government itself or americans who claimed to have an enlightened understanding of u. S. China relationship. Thats kind of a long answer but if i were an ambassador or i would have given such a long answer but i have tried to get into why rock the boat how the chinese think, how much i borrowed from their own writings to explain in a sympathetic way this is their dream. Some countries and some americans and some organizations are in the way of the hundred year marathon so they have harsh treatment in mind for those organizations. Grades. The first chapter of your book is entitled Wishful Thinking and it starts off with the incident with the chinese artist. I am trying to correct the pronunciation but i am becoming more like americans. You know how they say if you know several languages you are multilingual and if you know two languages you are bilingual and if you are american you are so tell us that incident and what led you to lead your book with it. Its an example of my wife and i admire in and loving chinese art. We have a lot of chinese dynasty sculptures and sometimes chinese delegations come to our home and say if you truly loved china you could give it back to the motherland but since china now has 150 billionaires chinese art is going up in value this particular artists performed something called the exploding Christmas Tree. About a month before christmas my wife susan have been the cochair of the gala that raised 2 million per National Asian art museum and the next day secretary of state clinton gave an award and there was a big payment made to this artist to blow up an American Christmas tree on the National Mall. Everybody applauded including me. It was a big crowd. Senior officials and he was given a medal to contributing to diplomacy for the arts and i wondered how can this be . Why are we paying so much money to blow up a Christmas Tree so close to christmas on the National Mall . As i say i was applauding. Then with the help of one of the defectors, six defectors in the book. One of the defectors helped me check out the artists and i found all kinds of things about them on line that i had not known and i dont think the smithsonian or the state department knew either that he is quite a nationalistic guy. He talked about 9 11 as an autistic spectacle to behold and he said his Favorite Book was a book called unrestricted warfare about how to use terrorism and cyberattacks to bring america to its knees by two chinese colonels who i talk about in the book. They are in the socalled hawk faction so i thought by beginning with that story i would show how susan and i try to help chinese art how we go in good faith to see the show and then how we learn oh my god theres a bigger story here than we realized. Anyways he is having a little fun with us. We pay him and is part of a larger story than in our own traditions marc twain has a great novel called adventures of tom sawyer and one of tom sawyers immortal tricks is very close to chinese strategy. He has to whitewash a fence hes being punished for it. Its very bad and scary hot but he scary scary hot but he tricks his friends and depending the fence for him. How does he do that quickly appeal to them. Only the best person can take this fence. You cant have the brush. They all do what in chinese is called nonaction to control the nonaction. As part of another concept that we can all say today sure, like you sure are smart. Sure is a flux for situation doing things earlier than the other guy can do them so tom sawyer getting his friends to paint the fence for him is all part of the same idea. You should other countries for support technology to win the 100 year marathon and i tried to show in here how some of the defectors told us this is what china has been doing. An extract from a book, the Americans Still dont see china the way it sees us a condition that has persisted for decades. The answer lies in ancient that says cross the sea in full view or in more practical terms hide in plain sight. As one of the 36 stratagems and essays from ancient chinese folklore. All of these stratagems are designed to defeat a more powerful opponents by using the opponents own strength against him. Explain. Will what part of the reason the title of the book the hundredyear marathon and the subtitle is chinas secret strategy to replace america as the global superpower this is not an openly declared strategy. In fact i use a line from american movie called the fight club and the first rule in the fight club you dont talk about the fight club. China does not openly describe the strategy. In fact they are very sensitive about being exposed. It goes back to his secret quote that chairman mao himself told other leaders in 1955 and repeated a couple of more times. He had a hard time getting this quote out of the chinese. One of the hawks reveal that in 2010. That quote from mao is you know chinas greatest contribution to all mankind is going to be to catch up and then surpass america. Mao tells his colleagues, this will take us from 50 to 75 years but we have got to do it and he begins to pull away from the soviet model and then he tries the communes. 20 to 40 Million People die and they get on to the new approach of the secret strategy. They need to follow many aspects of the american model. We need to get the americans to paint our fence for us. How can we do that . They do a lot of analysis and they begin to realize Science Technology investment exports to america getting companies to come in and provide hightech to china all of this big package we have got to get if we are going to implement chairman mau maus concept so they begin to do that in 1969 with four chinese generals writing them memo to mao. Mao was still alive. They say we need to follow the example of three kingdoms 200 a. D. We need to bring the americans over. We need to bring nixon to beijing. At this point nixon and kissinger are issuing antichina comments. President nixon gives a press conference and building a ballistic mole missile system. Kissinger reveals five times the chinese about it invite nixon to come to china. Five times the americans either dont get the message or they turn it down. This is kissingers book. Specifically at one point a letter i went to the Nixon Library and got it, to letter from the chinese to president nixon. Please come to china. Onepage letter said in a archives and the original is still there. Kissinger said returned is now because it was too risky. So the problem with understanding chinas secret strategy is until these documents are declassified on both sides we dont know how the secret strategy began and how its been working out. I got the security review authority to declassify a number of these and the american president ial decisions to mammals and part of the chinese story but i hope others will follow me and try to trace the secret strategy. It is denied by the chinese at first but if you say what about the book on the memo of the four generals . What about the americans not taking the initiative to open china but china opened up america than chinese officials or scholars will say yes, how did you know that . We are making progress unraveling the Church History of the secret strategy on the chinese side. Basically you are suggesting that china wooed america with a clear plan and the americans think that they wooed china with a plan and it talks like 36 stratagems rooted in folklore and something that goes back to 200 a. D. This is a nation where when you talk about the humanities he is history. Its like it doesnt matter. In america yes, yes. How is this country going to be a able to understand another culture from another country that thinks them 100 year terms . We are lucky if in this country americans can have an eight year plan and when the president gets elected for the first time and assumes he will be reelected so how does america do with this . What i really try to do is put the issue of china and the narrative of our relations with china on the president ial Election Debate agenda for 2016. China was not much of an issue in 2012. Mitt romney is a chapter on china in his book no apologies and promenade brings up we need to be more competitive with china but there is not really of a debate. What i would like to see in 2016 is our media dominate the issues. If Everybody Knows gwen ifill and Judy Woodruff and jim lehrer and fox news are going to raise the topic in the president ial debate you had better be ready to get the media start saying whats this all about is china really doing these things to us and are we naive and gullible duplicate our president ial candidates to become engaged with the topic. So far only two have talked about it. Elizabeth warren has a comment on line in one of her speeches where Elizabeth Warren is talking about losing jobs the middleclass and how china invest deeply and infrastructure as she gives a percentage of gdp so she is kind of admiring the chinese model. If only america could be like that. That thats the title of a book by tom friedman which is quite good. Think the title is roughly we used to be like that. There is a similar book by richard haas the council of Foreign Relations that called Foreign Relations begins at home. The ideas there but theres so much complacency because the narrative in the media today is china is going to collapse, its very backward they are kind of stupid and we can look down on them but besides we opened up china. We are the ones as possible for all their growth. That narrative is all wrong in my view. I sure show with new evidence in this book, i try to show up as a different narrative that china is outfoxing us. I think thats a president ial candidate question and i would be the pillsbury dream is gwen ifill or bill oreilly asks the candidates what about this book the hundredyear marathon . Have you read that and the candidates as well no workbook is back . You have had the American Dream and discuss the china dream and now the dream would be that you would share with this audience the haqqani dream for this afternoon to share with his audience what you have described in your book as the assumptions made by americans about china but before i do that i wanted to sort of tackle the question of economics. Militarily the United States is far superior and has much more military prowess than most countries in the world including china. So this challenge that you talk about basically it may be a secret strategy but what you say to somebody who says all they are doing is developing themselves more economically and you were not keeping pace. Youre manufacturing is declined and our economy is doing so well so essentially you cant blame china for it and what the chinese are doing is they have a better plan for their own improvement. Thats exactly right and they got the plan from us and the world bank. I try to show in one long chapter i call the capitalists sure raid. I show how do the chinese designer current Economic System system . Which they guided in large part from a combination of the world bank the imf so american economist and a wonderful defector from taiwan who swam across to china ends up going off to the university of chicago to get a ph. D. In economics from the conservative economist in chicago. Those back provides advice for how to create an economy that will break the rules of the World Trade Organization and will appear to be capitalist. That is why the chapters called cap was sure raid but in fact will be roughly half stateowned and the Government Intelligence Services will provide trade secrets that they steal from other companies around the world including germany and give them to the Stateowned Enterprises that the chinese called the National Champions. The National Champion is a stateowned company that is going to get on the forbes 500 list the fortune 500 list. Does anybody know how many Chinese Companies used to be on the fortune 500 list . 15 years ago was zero. How many twoday . 90, almost a fifth of the list of Chinese Companies. Many are stateowned. This approach in part from the world bank and defectors like justin and i will tell you the story come a swam across as a taiwan army captain and he becomes a famous economist. What does the United States do about mr. Man . Bob zoellick a friend of mine makes him Vice President of the world bank, our chief economist. He searched for five years. He and some other famous economist in china have a forecast now that chinese growth rate is going to stay seven day . Another 30 years they believe deeply in the marathon. They believe china is on the right track so that kind of question you raise about economics in the hundred year marathon im trying to say they are really not following the rules. If you look at the chamber of commerce, World Trade Organization legal cases, if you look at the u. S. Trade representatives annual report on china our government is very quietly saying you know you guys are breaking the rules all the time. There is an effort by some organizations in washington to sooth the chinese even more for breaking the rules. Right now the hot topic in our business pages in washington and in beijing too is something called that the i. T. If you are an insider you know know about the dat struggle struggle going on right now. The i. T. Is a bilateral investment treaty and our idea is the chinese promise they will treat American Companies operating in china the same as they treat the National Champions. And the talks are secret that there is a general discussion in the press that they are not going well. There are their trade negotiations going on that chinese are excluding from a transpacific. The tpp has as called by insiders pretty much says you cant have Stateowned Enterprises, National Champions be doing what chinas doing so they are not in the talks. We would like to get the men. The entry price is going to be acknowledge that they have these Gigantic Companies that are unlike any company in the world really. Maybe some of the russian Natural Resources combines are like that but to have the ceo chosen by a communist party to have them rotate among companies according to the communist partys decisions, to feed espionage from other companies in the world trade secrets to give them low price loans low market loans to have ambassadors overseas. You get a message pakistani youre alliance needs to get this done but an American Ambassador is not supposed to show favoritism to an individual company. Mike chatrand decapolis charade is quite important. If we focus on her chinese Weapon System here or chinese missile there thats important to the pentagon but actually i dont have much military stuff. People think this is a pentagon hawk. The longrange bomber isnt even an hero but was announced today by the air force is going to cost a half a billion for the plane in the air force would like to see 100 of them so you can do the arithmetic. Some indiscreet air force officers have even said its all about china penetrating deeper into china which the hawks in china was because they can say oh my died when he does. This is not about military things. This is about economic technological and political challenge. You talk about the hundred year bombers that the air force wants and how American Manufacturing is struggling today and has not risen. Our index of success for manufacturing is going down. The whole idea needs to be reinvented as to what is the purpose and should we be manufacturing Something Else for growth in this country and that has not yet happened. There are five assumptions you have listed in the book. Go ahead. I have forgotten him. The man has forgotten and he wants you to buy your book. It is meant to make people think about certain things. You also have a joke in your book and i want to read it now that you have poked fun at my joke. I have to stand up. My brezhnev joe . Its a russian joke and now you are saying that americans cant make jokes . Dr. Pillsbury mentioned in this book a joke that were shared with him by a soviet diplomat in 1969. The joke runs as follows. Brezhnev calls nixon on the telephone and brezhnev says the kgb tells me you have a new supercomputer that can predict events in the year 2000. Nixon says yes we have such a computer. Brezhnev says mr. President could you tell me what the names of our polar borough politburo members will be. Theres a long pause. Your computer is not sophisticated after all. Nixon says no your question i cannot read it. Nixon responds by saying well it is in chinese. [laughter] so the false assumptions you have listed in your book are number one engagement brings complete cooperation. I think you and i probably agree on that one. In my book i have made the same argument that this is a general assumption is special in the department that engagement needs cooperation and nobody gives a name margin for the other side manipulating the engagement. Thats something i think that is interesting. The second false assumption you say is that china is on the road to democracy and you believe that is not the case. A the third assumption is that china is a fragile flower or its not going to be militaristic. If you put pressure on china will collapse. Then theres the assumption that china wants to be and is just like us and that is where i started my conversation and the jokes i start making. This is an assumption ive dealt with since i was 18. Everybody wants the same thing. For example al qaeda does not want the same thing. The guy who is willing to kill himself does not want a better life life like americans want a better life. Theres a fundamental difference. The assumption that Everyone Wants the same thing as undermining policy around the world. The final assumption you talk about which is very important is chinas hawks are weak. Tell us more about it because you seem to suggest that they are not as a week as americans make them out to be. The Chinese Military hawks are a friend of mine and i thank them by name in my college minutes. I think 35 chinese generals and admirals. This book would not have been possible without them. They have that they dont like it when they read dr. Kissingers book on china and many books on china that hawks in china are a fringe element and they are kind of crazy is a word that is sometimes used. They are irresponsible and is the last one they dont like. A chinese hawk is in the government and wears a uniform in many cases, writes books is a highlevel party member and participates as what you might call a Political Force in china arguing against the doves and identify some of the doves. The doves are in one case a debate going on right now hawks versus doves. One is the should the constitution of china be above the communist party . The hawks of course they know, the partys supreme and the party knows what to do so the constitution is a good thing but its below the party. This has consequences all over china for the rule of law and the future democracy of human rights. Another debate going on right now is a power struggle over who should be president of china. Dr. Kissinger not to dwell too much on him but he told everybody that bush eli was very charismatic. Dr. Kissinger flew to china and you can get this on line. Theres a youtube video. Dr. Kissinger at the age of 89 three years ago, four years ago flew to szechuan. He isnt a big stadium with 100,000 chinese and everyone is singing mouse songs. Bush eli is the host. He thanks dr. Kissinger and dr. Kissinger makes a short speech. The idea is he is the future of china. He might be the next president and this is a good thing because he is helping poor people in szechuan and he has a program. The military hawks like them a lot. Things did not work out and now there is new material on line and im looking at reporters in the front row. There is Standing Committee of politburo deadlock of 33 over whether he should be put in prison arrested and put in prison ultimately for life or not. He is a good guide. He wants to bring back mao and dr. Kissinger likes him. The vote is 33. They had to call washington because Vice President xi jinping was visiting and he had the tie vote recount this is media rumors only because obviously a Sensitive Information inside china how they choose their next leader. Allegedly Vice President she called back and said i vote for him which then leads to a gentleman who is the head of the Security Services in china also on the Standing Committee. He gets arrested. He is going to jail for life grade than some military officers who are either at the szechuan stadium singing the songs with dr. Kissinger or they were doing other things, those military officers one by one are arrested and they are going to jail for life. So we are getting a look into hawks versus doves in china. In this case it appears the hawks may have lost but as soon as president she takes off as he does something extremely interesting. He takes the other six members of the Standing Committee of the politburo the top seven guys that run china no women in that group, sorry. He takes them to a temple of the hawks. Its called the National Museum of china. Susan and i went there. Everybody should go. If you want to understand the hundredyear marathon its laid out in this museum. As the worlds Biggest Museum by design bigger than louisville or the British Museum or the mat and in it the hundred year marathon is laid out. The first one is 1840 from 1949 kind of demonizes the americans by the way and then it talks about the next hundred years. The restoration which means restoring china to when it had a quarter to a third of the global gdp. President xi and his first time out as president is going to pay homage to the hawks. Then he starts having a series of meetings with the Chinese Military and goes aboard ships with aboard ships with them and they started praising them and he indicates that he really likes and is receptive to the hawks two of them i in the back of my book. They are called the two generals who he is particularly close to. The son of a former president has written a long essay on how human civilization, everything good comes to war. The other is a Major General who i first met at stanford. He is very welleducated. Two of the top hawks have ph. D. S from berkeley and political science. Ph. D. S from berkeley and political science. That is one of our assumptions. Engagement coming. Engagement, you know if you engage so if Everyone Wants to go home and become a democratic activist they go home and they demonize the National Democracy and they say the americans are up to start a war so these are hawks. Im sure there is a back about them choosing the wrong school going to berkeley. You get the idea of the hawks versus doves. You also talk about the american ignorance about chinese history and in great detail about the strategy and the whole subject of how china is influencing others on how they wooed china but im not going to get into all of that. Why not . This is the time i opened up for questions from the audience and im sure there are many. My request would be introduce yourself your affiliation, short questions and let us try and get as many as possible so hands up for questions. Yes i think we have the first question right here. This is dr. Christopher ford author of a very important book on china. Please go ahead and introduce yourself. I believe you are rhodes scholar. Thank you for your comments here today. To the extent that ive not read it but i have a quibble with this issue of secrecy in the title. In the sense that it occurs or feels to me as if much of what youre describing isnt in fact all that secret and there may be be my question builds on that and it strikes me its been clear for quite some time that chinese officialdom has been very resentful of u. S. Primacy on the workstation they have been obsessed by the way in which their own fall from primacy on the world stage was the result as they see it as a whole litany of foreign deprivations and humiliations. They have been convinced that state of primacy was a birthright for china of which it has been unfairly deprived and they have been very dedicated for the last century or so to the idea National Rejuvenation and return. They been focused upon and International Relations theorizing the country that is dominance is the rule for that and she had an appropriately virtuous lead state arise unlike the United States or the british before us that the rest of the world will spontaneously and harmoniously come into conformity with the norms and theyll use of that state. These are not things that are in any way secret and assess my question for you as to the extent that these are themes of chinas longterm strategy which i would be willing to accept that they are and believe that they are these are themes that have been hiding in plain sight as ambassador haqqani mentioned a few minutes ago. The interesting issue becomes less of chinese secrecy about this than what it is about us and our policy that has refused to see what has been hiding in plain sight. So ill turn this around and tell us a little bit about how it is and why does we have responded are not responded in the ways that we have two this fairly nonsecret secret strategy. An excellent question. I would say there are aspects of chinas secret strategy that really are secret. What you are laying out correctly, the themes of the chinese narrative that is going to be covered in your next book on how the chinese see america as sort of a mirror that is broadly known in china, some of those themes on the National Museum walls are the various things he laid out. For example the need to she is to avenge and the concept of avenging the hundred years of humiliation. Its on the museum walls. Its in chinese books but where it becomes secret is that techniques and means that are used to implement these broad themes. You mentioned five or six of the broad themes. The book is late. Its going to come out november 1. Do you know why its late . Because i thought ive got to lay out evidence of the secret strategy. I was not in control of the evidence. I have to go through the fbi cia and dod and a fourthplace that took many many months to remove a few things and let most of it out. Its a message to china really that this review sometimes senior officials got involved that they are willing to let the material and hear out about the secret nature of the strategy. If they had not done that the book wouldnt exist. I was not prepared to go in exile like snowdon and fly to hong kong and moscow and i was not prepared to be by private Chelsea Manning and just say to the press as he allegedly did and will spend most of his life in prison because of its hey look at all of these papers so i put together the evidence that i thought was about the secretiveness of the strategy. The defector interviews and some other materials and i submitted it and i think the fact that it has been approved and made public suggests somebody somewhere wants to send a message to the chinese that we are not as clueless as you thought. At least some of us understand what you are up to so yes broad themes that you laid out but the implementation is often quite unknown to the public. The six defectors i start out each chapter with a defector story. In one case one of the defector says Something Different from what you be be you and i might think is the chinese strategy. She tells us and ultimately gets 2 million for doing this she says he is a man singing all those Elvis Presley songs in english. Its only the rogue companies. He has a series of very wonderful pleasing story about u. S. China cooperation is going to be unlimited. She has access to president sheikh. Other defectors suffer because they have a different story to tell about chinese strategy. One day she is arrested by the fbi for espionage for china and i tell her story in here. Later on the fbi used a couple of reports how foolish they were to believe her. The fbi is not released. The fbi does not release the Damage Assessment report of what she told the police i make an appeal at the end of the Chapter Chapter where have the spy versus spy series of case studies our spies against china and chinese spies against america. It was clearly a victory for them but the fbi will not release the Damage Assessment report yet and i call upon them to do that. Another spy for china who was caught admitted it in court in alexandria and 86 and was found dead. He allegedly put a black trash bag around his neck and neck stick seated himself. He wasnt able to tell everything he had passed to china but he said he had been doing it for 30 years and he was an employee of the cia. Thats another one for the chinese side. In the spy versus spy story that im hoping to intrigue you to read the book i try to bring out the secret aspects of the strategy that implement these broad themes. How was that as an answer . Does that satisfy your question . If i may add as i understand it the goals are out in the open but the word secret has been proven but what dr. Pillsbury is referring to is the secret implementation as a methodological proper copout plan and that is what he is talking about in the book. As we always want people to do when we have booked events we want you to read the book. We had an interesting discussion last night at politics and prose and a chinese gentleman said well this is not secret. He went a little bit further. He said china doesnt really have a strategy at all. This is part of their very common line that they will say. Our leaders dont know what they are doing. Probably their greatest expert expert on america has written an article in Foreign Affairs magazine. He wrote an article a few years ago that said china has no grand strategy. We are just kind of hapless people groping stones as we crossed the river. So the opposite of what you are implying that Everybody Knows china as the secret strategy no the official chinese position is we dont have a strategy at all. We are just doing the best we can and it certainly isnt secret. I hope you read this section where i give their account of their denial of having a secret strategy. Right behind you. My question has more to do with how you view Foreign Policy is a part of chinese politics decisionmaking process in terms of institutional setup. The chinese leadership has an array of challenges they have to face. He laid out his plan to take over the United States but they have more plans worry about. They have a fiveyear plan and we know their foreignpolicy is not at the top Standing Committee level. There is snow special person representing Foreign Policy. If you zoom out a little bit how do you think the chinese leadership will weigh foreignpolicy . Do think they will weigh the domestic agenda heavier than the foreignpolicy agenda and is a more inward looking or outward looking and he assumed the communist party as their primary target is to stay in power and lets assume foreignpolicy plays a role in a the tough decisionmaking. Do you think the hawks views will be represented the mainstream foreignpolicy thinking, just like i could write a book about american politics based on my interviews with Tea Party Members but depicting mainstream thinking. If i understand your question correctly i can answer by saying china is focused only and word and has so many problems and only a few hawks are the tea party equivalents in china only a few of them want to have an assertive Foreign Policy cillizza my book basically wrong wrong . So i would say no maybe not. The chinese leaderships idea of domestic policy as she put it for at least 30 years and maybe longer has been what i said about tom sawyer getting his friends to paint the fence. To solve our domestic problems we need help in the world outside. The way they often freeze it is china needs a peaceful security environment in which to flourish domestically. So its a little bit of a trick question youre asking. Its not foreignpolicy. Thats a junior topic in china compared to domestic issues, yes you are right but plastic issues in their believe can only be solved with what . Exports from the outside world especially the americans. More foreign direct investments. They get 20 times more foreign domestic export from us than india. Is that just some natural thing . The chinese leaders have worked very hard to get american hightech investment in china. Its one of their top goals for 30 years. His foreignpolicy idea or is it domestic policy . Its both. We need to get the americans to whitewash and painter offense and painter francepresse. As a whole series of things that chinese leaders stayed in their speeches for what they have to get from the outside world and in some sense the outside world owes them because of what chris ford mentioned the century of the treatment of humiliation by these foreign powers. So the secret strategy in the 100 year marathon and what the book is trying to explain is that if we use what ambassador haqqani is warning us dont use american concepts that Foreign Policy and Domestic Affairs are two different things, not in china. The only way to win the marathon is going to be successful terms of trade Investment Technology and goodwill. They have got to get goodwill. From the United States and their other neighbors. This is a supreme policy goal of china. Trying to understand others from the American Point of view its more important to understand what they other countries aiming for them to assume they are classified exactly like a send they are structured almost like us. I love your opening comment about americans like to see a country is somebody we should bomb or somebody we should take a lunch. The chinese have strong feelings about that. We are the one you should take a lunch. Chinese food is generally pretty good and popular and quite cheap here. Right here in the front. I noticed you mentioned very briefly the in 1996 which uncovered an attempt by the chinese to directly influence the u. S. Political process. Its much worse today and when we talk about secrecy or transparency can you talk to us or expand on the idea that there is much more influence on congress and the American Democratic process today than there ever has been particularly in a very diplomatic way that a lot of people on trips etc. Etc. I have to be careful in this area because i dont want to slander people and say you just say that because china is giving you 100 million. That is considered below the belt attacks in our political system. What i would rather say his praise part of the chinese secret strategy which is really brilliant and i was quite stupid back in 1999. I had a chance to meet this beautiful woman in china and i didnt understand what she did. She had a huge building, the building and my host said you have got to meet her. So we had a long talk and she gave me some books and magazines and i still have a photo. Im going to put the photo on line of my web site. The hundred year marathon. Com. She is vice grammarian on the politburo and she was here recently to visit with hillary clinton. The two of them had a conference together. She came up with something called the Confucius Institute. There are 350 and 50 of them in america. They offer money to universities to sign a contract, teach Chinese Civilization. Whats wrong with that . This has become quite a controversy in the newspapers of the world. What exactly is going on here . Stanford has won that has been controversial and chicago and some of them are being kicked out at these universities because they have certain sensitivities. You cant talk about National Endowment for the democracy. He cant talk about the dalai lama and you cant talk about all kinds of things and they teach Chinese Civilization confucius is responsible for some great works. One of them is called the spring autumn annals. The spring autumn is all about portals of geopolitics and deception and trickery, things that are part of a hundred year marathon today. If you go to the Confucius Institute and say i would like to study confucius classic number five the one on the spring autumn annals the one on the rise and fall of the five hegemons. Confucius wrote about this. How you become a hegemon or how you bring an old one down. That is not part of our Confucius Institute program. So this is all legal. Its in the billions and billions. Its all over the world. Susan and i went to see one in south africa recently. Its having a huge soft power impact. This is focused on the next generation. It is in giving 100 million to an 80 roll today. Its looking at the next generation on college campuses. That is something i admire and by the way the ladys name is and she actually laid this out to me in the media. I always have an embassy escort when i go to beijing to make sure i dont say the wrong thing and to take notes. She laid out in this meeting we feel we need Better Software or around the world. Could you help us and i didnt fully grasp the significant resources, the millions and billions that would go into this program and the Confucius Institutes is one of many programs. Cctv is a very breathtaking operation. That is the chapter in a book called the Message Police. I tried to express admiration for what they are doing. Its completely legal. You say in the. You say in the book and i quote from the 17th century to the modern era technologist missionaries and researchers who visited and studied china were essentially lead to accept a fabricated account of chinese history. Chinese sources played up the confusion pacifist nature of Chinese Culture and played down the so i guess thats a point youre making here. Yes, right in the middle. Now he is slipping away. School board bans international studies. My questions about u. S. China relations in the context of two thirdparty relations in the news right now specifically north korea in the context of the cybersecurity and the nuclear discussions that are going on as well as with regards to hong kong and the democratization and debates and discussions that are taking place. I would just like to get your opinion on how you think those two triangular relations are going to play out in this context. Thank you. Thank you for your question. Hong kong and north korea the chinese secret strategy for the hundred year marathon is not to upset the americans. This is sort of like criterion number one. In both cases the chinese official position as i understand it we want to help you in north korea. We oppose Nuclear Weapons on the peninsula either in south korea or north korea and we want to work with you americans in without a war and president obama you would think would accept the new model. It applies specifically to places like Hong Kong North korea iran and a number of policy issues that president obama has not accepted the new model of great power relations. This has caused a lot of concern in china. My friends the hawks in beijing are seeing saying you see, he wont accept the new model. This proves the americans are out to get us to overthrow us and to dismember us. President obama and his team have given a different explanation. They have said well president obama gave a speech saying over time would need to try to develop this new model and the chinese say well now no you need to accept it now. Our president spent an hour and a half with you talking about. We dont need to overtime move toward it and susan rice gave a speech in georgetown over year ago and she said something similar page something similar preachy set me to operationalize and move toward a new model so we too on our side are kind of giving lip service and public. Yes u. S. China relations are filled with cooperation and happiness. We worked together on north korea and iran in 100 things Climate Change but oh when you start examining the details somehow north korea still has Nuclear Weapons. Somehow the Hong Kong Election system did not get fixed. There is not going to be free election. Theyre a whole series of things that when you put the microscope into the agreement as that i mentioned the bilateral investment treaty we dont have agreement bearing for china this new model of great power relations not being accepted by president obama or secretary kerry. He made a speech on it. All the figures in the administration have said very subtly we need to move toward the new model but this is really probably the biggest single point of friction right now between the u. S. And china that if you try to get an oped piece written a mentioned as president ial candidate debate in 202016 and someone says that he stand on the new model of great power relations . No one has ever heard of it. In my humble opinion this is the key point of friction right now to u. S. And china and Everything Else comes under that. You can agree on accepting the new model the chinese proposal is the the model then the americans have not accepted the idea that china can peacefully rise like america did against england to be the americans are still considering a lease coercion against china and possibly the use of force. The hawks in china read into that also and rebalance warships, warplanes. If you read ash carters speeches he said we should focus their research and science on the pacific and india. You write about chinas seven fears which is another chapter. These two things are part of the larger issue of accepting the new model or not. Michael, two questions. One where does where and how does taiwan fit into the chinese hundred year marathon strategy . Second question if you look at chinese history since 1949 many of the top leaders were actually brought down before they became top leaders. Some of the top leaders who became top leaders they seem to have pursued that totally opposing strategies of policies. Xi jinping was considered the opposite of mao in pursuit of much more my policy policy than two of his predecessors. How do you think the chinese were able to maintain that consistency of 800 year strategy strategy . How do they do that . The chinese to maintain a longer term perspective and the americans but as a previous question suggesting, we only have a fiveyear plan for five years so how do they maintain the consistency . That is two questions. On the taiwan question the chinese version of the hundred year marathon is taiwan is on china site. Part of their secret strategy is to pull taiwan over to china side and remember the big building i talked about . The admission of the United Front Department is focused heavily on taiwan. They want the taiwan media the taiwan taiwan businessmen of whom there is almost now in china they want i want to come over to china side. They believe its a strategic mistake to alienate taiwan. Their strategy in washington is very similar. They want taiwan to not be part of the conversation. When we announced the rebalance in the paper today sure theres no mention of taiwan. Your second question is a bit related to taiwan. The hawks in china some of whom sometimes a candidate as you say goes down the 100 year strategy that i write about in some detail has been debated. Its not a clear blueprint. There are power struggles about how best to implement the employment the marathon strategy and it has caused the death of a number of leaders. Its not a casual debate. Jihad we surpass the americans in chairman mao told us how to surpass the americans. They shortened it to 10 years versus 25. Mao made a series of secret speeches and by 58 he was saying just 10 years we could surpass the americans especially in steel production. Many people are going to die over that statement. People try to cheer tell the chairman know he can do it in 10 years. They get fired or they get killed. The debate comes up again in 1971 when mao and the four generals i mentioned said lets bring kissinger and nixon they wanted nixon first and kissinger inserted himself into it. They kept saying president nixon should come to beijing and dr. Kissinger said obviously they need an envoy. So that led to the death of roughly 10 chinese generals and mao winks and says to nixon senate declassified documents, mao says to nixon some people did want you to calm. Dont worry about it. He meant he had killed his top 10 generals who oppose this and to this day the mystery of this plane crash thats heading for the soviet union and crashes in Outer Mongolia and the chinese narrative is they are traitors. They opposed nixon coming so they ran and their plane out of gas so they all died and others are put on trial. Its another story as you know and 76. They have a whole Different Division and the others in the gang of four have a different vision of how to do a 100 year marathon. They commit suicide in jail or spend life in prison. This is a life or death struggle how to do the hundred year marathon but nobody can say i mean there are several things you cant say in china today if you want to stay in the party and the government. He cant say i dont want to surpass United States. Id be happy to be the small little brother of the United States forever. You cant say the dalai lama is a handsome guy. Why cant we invite him to beijing. And let him go back to lhasa for a while. Theres a whole series of what they called the nine dont face. You are alluding to with taiwan and other issues these very bloody power struggles that is part of the chinese message. It if you were at the Confucius Institute and your learning Chinese Nuclear hand up and say what exactly happened to these generals were killed and 71 and why cant the dolly lama . Its not on the curriculum of the Confucius Institute. You are raising sensitive embarrassing questions but how can i persuade you that the goal is not up for debate. Surpassing america is chinas greatest contribution to the human race. The final three questions right here in the front you and then the gentleman in the back. We wont have time enough for everyone but im sure michael will be here to sign books afterwards and you can ask them questions in person. Nivea with the liberty times. In the context of europe books or your assumption how is xi jinping going to that . He seems to more openly talk about the china stream and with a pretty hungry proposal on what china should do in his tenure. The second question is and maybe this is going a stretch too far but russia sees china the way the u. S. Sees it. Does the mainstream view from russia believed in a peaceful china . Thank you. In terms of president xi jinpings plans he has been very clear that he believes in reform. He has a new book out. Its quite like the senate has a picture in the middle and the book i actually read it. The book is about improving what he calls governance of china which is a world bank term. He wants to improve approve the efficiency of china, the growth rate. He wants a shanghai freetrade zone to do some experiments about foreigncurrency being easier to send back to country so president she is presenting himself as a reformer, an experimenter someone willing to in some sense have the hundred year marathon go faster. Why wait until 2049 . So i see him as a guy i first met actually. I have a picture of him. Our slides didnt arrive in time but i have a nice picture of him in a 1980. He is 27 years old. He came to the pentagon. He is has been to the pentagon twice. Been there both times. The first time he didnt talk in 1980. He is a no tater for delegation of chinese generals and he put that photo in his book. He is proud of the old days in 1980 when he came to visit the pentagon. He is also quite friendly with the hawks. They seem to appreciate him. So its a contradictory to themes you might say. I want china to really go faster in the hundred year marathon but i like the narrative that the hawks have been given. Chinas destiny is something we should Start Talking about. So he is changing what used to be the secret strategy. Everybody in washington knew this. Roughly bide your time and nurture up security. What does that mean . To put it in american as ambassador haqqani would do its movie image of the fight club. The first rule about fight club is dont talk about the fight club. It means dont talk about a longrange strategy. President she seems to be saying its okay to Start Talking about 2049 and the what the world is going to look like in 2049. By the way not yet its very good news. 2049 that world is going to be really quite wonderful according to president sheedy. And by the way taiwan is not part of the story. Its going to be brought over towards china and not pose a problem anymore. Does russia view it in that way . The russians are having an intensive debate in moscow. You can find hawks and doves about china. I went back to see a guy a talk lot about in the book. The person i first taught me about china. He was in my United Nations secretariat Political Affairs department. He was on loan from the russian government. People are plenty of time in the hands of a talk about china. Went back to see him in moscow. He came to the seminar official seminar. He said i told you so. It emerged in moscow that there are prochina and antichina points of view. The prochina point of view is these guys are with us. The antichina view is hey there are 2 million undocumented chinese in siberia that are taking over all kinds of stuff in china. They drive too hard a bargain and the price is really quite low. In the case of ukraine crimea the chinese have not been fulsome in their endorsement of what he is doing so i see a growing friction and a growing debate in moscow over what to do about china. Im hoping that there will be a russian language edition of the hundred year marathon predicted news for you the japanese bought the translation rights. Thats good news for you. Thats good news for me. The chinese have told me, some chinese told me her last book was published in china which is true. Only one redaction. We like to publish this book in china. Ive not yet heard from the russians. Im hoping they would like to publish it and i just checked amazon. You know this is number four in the amazon bestsellers list . I am hoping Christopher Ford buys more than one copy. There is one question in the very back. Michael one of our greatest china experts. Hes going to pretend to ask me a question. My question is this. The four in the hundred years of humiliation chinas main contact with the outside world where do these neighbors sudan to this hundred year maxim because after all quite a number of these, some of them very important our allies of the United States. Will they share their lines with the United States when they see the magnificence of xi jinpings role . And a further point in my conversations with learned people in china the. And your many books on chinese Foreign Policy. What comes across is the ignorance of other countries. The Hudson Institutes knows a a lot about a lot about United States but my impression is many of those who have a great deal of knowledge about the United States somehow have a the lack of some basic understanding as to how the United States works. Neither their history or their current political system seems to allow for an understanding of how democracies with all their contradictions in all their problems have lasted and how they work. Could you please comment . I have good news for you professor. The Hudson Institute center for chinese strategy is going to have a series of events essentially press conferences in which we are going to release translations of chinese strategic writings that i think are important and are not easily available and one of the first topics is going to be this particular kind of chinese strategic writing about how well do they understand their neighbors and the United States as well . I think you are essentially correct that there is a lot of misperceptions that if we now dont forget im saying they are outsmarting sn outfoxing us in some areas so i would seem to be saying the chinese are really really smart and they know everything about their neighbors neighbors. And as a cautionary note in your conversations and i have had similar discussions, they dont seem to get it very well about their neighbors. I think there is an area here for and i hate to be a pollyanna but theres an area for further discussion with the chinese about their misperceptions and on a lot of things. I have a chapter called america the great satan. They say Abraham Lincoln began the containment policy. He was containing the south. They have similar views on india. The indians are at this and this and this really wild stuff about india. About japan they have a series of narratives about japan that the samurai are still there and they cant wait for the next war so they visit the acid can for the trip and this is part of the program. They say the japanese have this peaceful scientific missile that they launch into space. This is an icbm chinese hawks say and there are 70 tons of missing plutonium in japan. Its obvious to the chinese hawks with this is. Its in the underground Nuclear Weapons that have already been made. So we get these kind of wild misperceptions and in one way we can despair and say what a pity and on the other hand this is an opportunity if we made a list of these misperceptions and then tried to i hate to say the work in front thats a little bit too tough but to discuss with them hey stop saying this. Abraham lincoln didnt do this. Woodrow wilson didnt do this. Your whole narrative, youre teaching in colleges and your Party Members is false. If our leaders begin to do that they would have to respond. Either we get better educated, oh my god this is what they really think where they would have to back off. The chinese themselves do this with the japanese. They are all over the japanese in their textbooks about world war ii. There is some merit to it. But we are simply passive so far and i think its because of the lack of translations into english and with the hudson Institutes Center on chinese strategy wants to do is to bring out some of these materials that are open in china. Its not wellknown here and really quite shocking. Finally a question in the back. I know there are many Unanswered Questions but therell be time to discuss with michael when you sign your when he signed your books. Thank you very much. I have a question on taiwan. You mention for a 100 year term taiwan would be on the chinese side so assuming that you believe taiwan will be unified with china within 100 years, what will be the strategy for the United States who deals with the taiwan issue in the context power shifting in the west asiapacific . Thank you. Wide to the chinese misperceptions, really quite fascinating. The hawks when they write about america in taiwan they always write the same way. Taiwan is really an unsinkable Aircraft Carrier the americans are using to contain china. They have maps sometimes and they will show how taiwan is blocking all these ports of china and the americans have their secret strategy which is to block china from coming out into the ocean by building up taiwan. Why is that . Because taiwan does not exist as an official entity. The way of talking about this is local authority. Local authority of what reign. So you cannot have it both ways. Taiwan is part of the american side of the 100 euros on rate . Or they are not and the americans dont really involve themselves with taiwan at all where there is something in the middle going on that day in washington are competing for taiwans love. And so who is going to win that reign are they going to get taiwan to have mcdonalds hamburgers . Or is china going to do better because they say hey, we are all chinese yellow emperor, you know . They read the taiwan textbooks
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