Tom i want to point out, this is alex arriving. He is trying to win that seat. He could win it easily. What can you make of what is happening in scotland and what it means for the u. K. As a whole . Im a unionist, so it is worrying. Gordon brown hasnt got to bear responsibility for this. Gordon brown was a to factor leader of the labour party in scotland for all those years. Prime minister and chance and he has to bear report on those responsible is. And he has to show responsibly for whipping up antienglish feeling of scotland, for no election purposes or advantages. If you and that is what the labour party is doing now. And i cannot help having a tiny laugh. Tom on the question of u. K. , the election, one thing you could say is that you are in a difficult position. On one hand, you wanted to fight on behalf of the National Party but on the other had if you did with the liberal democrats did for many years, hyper concentrate on a number of seats and vote for us here, you might have done better, might you not . Im arguing that we have done well. We will get at least 3 million votes, possibly over 4 million. We could be the Third Largest party, we have had an amazing campaign. People dont appreciate how little resources we have. In comparison with major parties. And in fact, we have done Amazing Things on a shoestring. And we have said, we ran a successful National Campaign, despite the fears of bbc audiences and we also have the best manifesto, technically written, the best put together. And actually, these results are astonishing. At the first result that came out, the same candidate that came in six in the 2010 election came in second in this election. We have established ourselves as a challenger to the labour party in the north and other parts of the country. Tom thank you very much. We are looking at and there may not be dramatic movements. Nina has a guest to talk to about scotland. Nina i am back with elizabeth from facebook, in terms of the campaign, has been about scotland. Talk me through this map so we can see clearly what you see. What we are looking at is the conversation around the election during the campaign. You can see scotland really is dominating. This trend started last year with the Scottish Referendum the most talked about topic in the u. K. On facebook. The scots have defined what excellence in campaigning is, authenticity. This afternoon was doing her final video, a plea to voters to get out and vote. We saw 2. 5 million mentions around the snp conversations. They know how to campaign and they are doing it well on facebook. Nina ok, i have jack a digital expert who has worked on different campaigns. I am rejoined by david and from the think tank british future. Thank you all for being here. Facebook we talked about scotland nailing it. Goes back to messaging. Snp understands that you have to deliver the right message through the right medium. If they have done a great job of segmenting messages and putting out messages via twitter facebook, snapshot. The kind of messages and they are the kind that actually are positive and resonate well with a lot of people in scotland. And think about the other parties, they have done well. Liz is right, but they have a lot of catching up to do. Nina the point there about the Scottish Referendum, will read where we naive . We thought it would move on, it didnt move on. Right they tried to draw a rhetorical audience underscore land in a did not work out that way. Partly because resigned so swiftly. And the stories, should they have stayed with snp, there could have been a successor. Their strategy since of the referendum has been traditional campaigning. Nina we dont know if they have those 50 19th, but do you think that they will work with the snp or if voters have voted that way to break up the union . Lots going on. It is true that snp voters are likely to support independence, that has not always in the case. There has been a chunk of people who liked snp as a government but dont want independence, but there is a closer correlation now. And sturgeon is it so popular. Nina an Incredible Campaign by her. Do you think that the union is now under threat again . It is certainly in question but she has a challenging job over the next few years. And she has incredible mobilization, not just online but offline. She is cautious, i think about what this all means. Scotland, they have over 50 not independent, but close to 41 who want independence. This is a four party system, you could win all of the seats. If she has opinion polls with 67 wanting to be independence, she would be calling. But there is a lot of pressure. If you have the vote and you dont do it, it might never return. Nina benefits very briefly, and it pits english against the scots. It will be interesting if David Cameron comes back as Prime Minister. Can he make an offer to scotland , can you now put it back together. Nina as soon as results come through north of the border, we will tell more about scotland. Tom justice say that we are calling south as unp events in Northern Island will not be without competitions. Lets go to martin in ireland scotland. It is adjusted that the snp was being cautious, is there mood changing . It probably is. We are hearing whispers from around the country. Lets use edinburgh as an illustration, because it is a good one. In 2010, 4 of the five edinburgh seats were won by the labour party. The snp came in fourth. Now it looks like it will be a clean sweep. One is touch and go, but they think they won the rest. And we are hearing big names. Im joined by alex massie, and editor of the spectator. Alex, people have been watching the exit poll. We are going to need some new metaphors for scotland, earthquake snp hurricane, it is all of these things. It is a complete disaster for the Scottish Labour Party. And of course, a complete annihilation of the liberal democrats here. There is no simple answer how did this happen . It is remarkable, the referendum changed the parameters of politics here. If you voted yes in september, the question is the most dominant one today. If you voted yes, why would you vote for a union in may . If you voted no in september why would you vote for the snp . But they are getting 95 of those who voted yes. While as the Union Coalition is split. And it looks as though most of those efforts are going to be insufficient to hold the snp advance. This is an earth shattering event. I think this will be remembered. Ill ask you, people are wondering, could this lead to another referendum . It will increase that idea, maybe for next years Scottish Parliament terry elections, they could hold a referendum as soon as possible. 80,000 new members since the referendum, it helps explain why this has happened. They have captured the mood in scotland and have promised to stand up for scotland. It will be quite difficult to for her to keep a lid on expectation. At the same time, the quote the ball is not in her court. It is up to whoever is Prime Minister in westminster to make offers or to say, look at this is what we will do in terms of constitution. Alex, thank you very much. Interesting results coming from scotland. A psalm in the next 1520 minutes. In the meantime, back to you. Tom martin, thank you. We are joined by alex, the former snp leader. These are early results tonight but it looks like an incredible night for your party. I dont think tom i dont think he can hear us. Lets go back to him as soon as we can. Maybe i can bring in collin and jane. Interesting listening to martin, this is staggering what is happening. The number of anonymous majorities we will see overturned. Colin our colleagues suggest that the snp might have swept glasgow. As you recall, the glasgow north east, that was the safest of places. Tom he might be the only survivor. Colin if that suggestion is true, therell be no Labour Party Mps in scotland, as it looks. Tom i think we are going to go to alex now. Good evening. Good evening. Tom you have had achievements in your career, but this looks like an incredible night for you. Yes a confidence in scotland. The results are still too calm, but all the reports we are getting across the country as we are seeing this on a gigantic scale, there is a tide flowing for snp. Tom what others have suggested is that the exit polls are beginning to look like it probably is thereabouts, across the u, and in scotland, from the results, we are beginning to see a suggestion that there is a reasonable chance that David Cameron will be Prime Minister while your party has swept scotland. If that proves to be the case where does that leave the u. K. . We have in scotland, and in important speech made this week, in terms of the government of the u. K. , the government does not have the reach, there could be problems of legitimacy. If that comes about, cameron would have a difficult problem. No westminster government could possibly ignore what is happening in scotland this evening. Listen, we have not had a single result from that one, just a handful from england. We should probably let the peoples be counted before we speculate. Tom is it not, a lot of people would think it is inevitable that you would put an independence referendum back on the ballot for 2016. Im asked that question a lot, so i talk about the luxury now and say, that is something for Nicola Sturgeon tom suppose David Cameron came and said, all right, i hear it. What about full fiscal economy baton ami, we will give baton ami autonomy, what would you say to that . We will try to see if there is a progressive alternative to the conservative party, that is what the mps will do and we will follow through on that. It lets a with the rest of it gives us at the end of the evening before we decide that that is possible. Nicola sturgeon will spell things out very clearly. Tom are you surprised in any way of this result and what do you think is driving it . A lot of people thought after the referendum, that was settled for a generation, but what seems to have happened is the support for your party has grown since then, almost as if it was a wagon moving forward. If you study my speeches from september, i displayed that with the situation is full of opportunity, i did that because cameron had not implemented or said he would honor the point of view that was the promises made it to scotland. Of course it caused a normal suspense and also opened a political door of opportunity for the snp, because it was a demonstration of bad faith. Some of what is happening is a result of the clumsy and arrogant manner that the Prime Minister had after the day of the referendum. I think it is more to do with a positive vision being articulated by sturgeon and the performances she has produced during the Election Campaign. And we moved into a position of dominance quickly after the referendum, by last october, but to carry that through as it seems, through the Election Campaign, for the election, it is extraordinary. Tom thank you very much. We are expecting the first results from scotland, fairly shortly. We will go there as soon as we have it. We have spoken this evening of course about scotland, the overline the overall picture and with the chance of you into in downing street, that could be the marginal. Lets summarize that. Lets have a check in on this. It is filling out bit by bit. Results are coming in. He can see this in focus, the labour party targets on the left side of the dividing line. The closer they are to the dividing line, the easier they are for the party to gain. It look at this labour party board. Three blue blocks you can see have been marked out. We will take you to the labour party area. A 2 swing. But this has stayed with the conservatives. We have all been reading the articles about which exceeds to look out for. This one was almost kicked out, they need to be getting that back in their hold. It was held by the labour party until 2010, they wanted it back. Other seats around it, like north, lymington as well, all in the same patch. The conservatives have held on. Look at the other seats in that area. This is the target was. This gives the tories a reason to feel confident, Ben Thomas Amber rod and hastings, so much ever campaigning to see hastings. And if we take this further down , the labour Party Hunting grounds, we were looking at jane allison. It not only has she held it, the conservatives vote has increased 2 swing from labour party to conservatives, that is a remarkable moment this early in the night. If you talk with collin and jane on that, you are talking about london being an interesting spot that is a fascinating detail. This movement between labour party and the conservatives. Colin you are right. 37th on the labour party target list, the see that they needed to win if they wanted to have the Largest Party. I think they can wave goodbye to that. The swing that we have from the limited number results that we have, they suggest that perhaps it could be a. 5 swing, which would give them about 910 gains from the conservatives. That would have to be chopped off, all those seeds losing to the snp in scotland. It looks as if labour party will do worse this year. And at the future we were just chewing over a few minutes ago. Jane the fact that those seat on the conservative side of the board come and live in. We will have a look at those. These are very easy to pick out. This brings up a case in point. They would be devastated to lose beastly eastly. We are talking about which way you can guess that will fall. Cheadle eastbourne, jeremy brown obviously heading out stepping down from massey. Even the seat around london that we were talking about there are all sorts of areas that have come into play much further down the conservative target list. We are spotting a couple of them , kingston serving 10. The conservatives taking that counsel so long held by. It has become much more colin if you talk about the start of the evening, maybe kingston, a lot of these seats at the top. I dont know whether or not you want to talk about how realistic these targets are. Tom if you said yesterday these were under threat, we would be shocked. Colin you have martin hall who has in their a long time, this is a well known local liberal democrat that has maintained a degree of presence on the local councils, which should not be dismissed in the circumstances. People thought they would hold on. All the results we have had so far, certainly from the exit poll and as i mentioned earlier the other polls, the suggested that they would do poorly throughout the southwest. We expect some of that to turn blue. Tom we will come back to this. We have simon ready to talk to us. Simon, you cannot imagine that this night was going to begin potentially to pan out in this way . The elections are sovereign we knew they would be difficult for us. We have always opposed, and done well in wrestling the country then people who dont like austerity, i when i predict the outcome yet. We have had one exit full poll. We have not had a single seat having its result declared, so im hoping that we have colleagues that will come through. In any event, we took the decision, we thought it was the right decision in the National Interest. The economy is growing better than any economy in europe. We have been able to lift taxes so that millions of millions of people dont pay tax and have tax reductions. All those things. Tom i know we dont have the results, but if you look at the results directly related to you, in terms of seats but the results we have, the liberal democrat vote is collapsing. Thats because we knew that we had to target our resources in the places we held seats and the few places we thought we could take, that has not been secret. Therefore, the results in the places we have heard about so far are not in that category and of course therefore, we did not put the resources there, to sweep us into places and other parts of the country where we do not have a base. Lets wait and see what happens. You will see an entirely different picture, there will be thousands of votes casted for liberal democrats and i hope that we will have a significant presence in the government. It does not look like the tories won the general election. It is not look as if they have had a satisfactory result. Nobody looks as if they are the great winter overnight. In scotland, things look different. But we have another 12 hours before we have a clear picture i know that we have fought a good fight. We have put the elections first. We have a good case to put. At the end of five years in government, the country has been left a much stronger place man when we went in. Tom if you and you personally consent i getting back to this stage . Im going as soon as i am with this interview and another interview. We dont expect clear results for another couple of hours. I have been under attack from the labour party, every single general election since we first one, sometimes the media have reported that we lost, we worked do. I hope that we have one, it was a huge battle. I know it will be close. Tom if you do end up having a bad night, do you think it is conceivable that you would enter into any arrangement with the conservatives . Thats a discussion we have not begun to have. We have not talked to any major parties. I think the general view would be in the country, having had the coalition with a stable government for five years, that was better to have a coalition than before. It looks as if that would only be possible with the conservatives. We have a democratic process that judges these things. Certainly, we do not believe any less in a coalition or any less in taking responsibility now the country will benefit from having a stable government for the next five years. Without it, the economy cannot have secured a development that i know my constituents want. Tom that is an interesting take. Thank you for talking with us. We will go straight to tim, the former president of the liberal democrats. I think it is sad to say, you probably cannot hear what simon was saying there, but he was telling that he went on to say he was still a believer in coalition, do you believe it is credible that if you end up with these results predicted that you could go into any other kind of arrangement with conservatives . To state the obvious, hardly any seats have been declared. I prefer to wait and see what the people say. In my constituency and across the country. What i can say is that i am proud of simon and all of my colleagues up and down the country. Not just for the brilliant campaign, but for making decisions five years ago that was in the interest of the country. We knew at this time, as we know it would be a difficult night. What i think, this is a fracturing of britain in a way which every decent minded person should find deeply worrisome. There is a nationalist agenda in scotland and the conservatives for a Campaign Based on fear, in terms of the snp and more generally. Nationally, that is dangerous. It is a reminder that britain is never has never needed a liberal party more than it does today. Im determined that we and make decisions in the National Interest and build. I am sure a National Coalition those people that share our liberal values, which i believe still are the majority in this country. Tom we have been looking at pictures of the Prime Minister leaving his home in whitney to go toward but can i kick in i want to continue with that same theme on the you are talking about it in different terms, the language you are using does not suggest that a coalition with the conservatives is particularly your favor option. Im not talking about that, im talking about the future of this country and i worry about the agenda in this Election Campaign seems to be that hope has lost out. I want to see this country united, i want decent liberal values. And not be a flagwaving fear that we have seen from the conservatives. Coalitions is all about the arithmetic, what we showed five years ago is that the people decide who run the country and we respect what they give us in terms of the parliamentarian seats, we dont know what that is so it is pointless to speculate. Tom one thing not much in doubt, not serious debate about that the snp will have a good night in scotland. People have talked about every kind of we are reaching for the cliches, we will be for the weeks to come if that turns out to be the case. What do you make about it . As i say, nationalism is a dangerous in, because essentially it goes without saying that our problems are challenging they affect somebody in england, somebody in scotland, and im proud to be british. We are a long are we have partners in europe and unfortunately, those who have one the day in this election in the United Kingdom, are those who had a message of fear and not hope. I dont i stand unprepared to accept that and i believe that the majority in britain believe in a hopeful descent, decent government, sharing and a working together. That is why britain has never needed a liberal party more than it does tonight. Tom finally, do you think there is a danger that this could be the beginning of the end of the union, or do you think that is a ridiculous assertion at this point . I think it is all the more important to believe and standing together. In terms of our relationship with the european union. We should work hard together to build that. Elections are won by hope, not fear. Tom thank you very much. We will go and see nina, where they are pondering everyones surprise at how the tories are doing. Nina were pondering the accuracy of the day to day polls. One of them seems very wrong tonight. I am joined by andrew hawkins. It is this a time where you have to defend your industry . Twitter has gone mad suggesting that the opinion polls throughout the campaign have been wrong. It is far early to draw conclusions there. I think we need to distinguish between exit polls, an exercise in measuring the polo billet he of who will win seats and the opinion polls, for the campaign, which measured vote share. As it is, we take into account the fact that we could be on 11 of the votes and still only get to mps. Time will tell. We have 17 c to go. Time will tell what the vote share accuracy is. If has been a certain narrative throughout this year that has assumed that the labour party has been ahead of conservatives and vice versa. We think the crossover occurred at the start of the year, whether it is as far ahead in a vote share terms as the exit polls might suggest it is far too early to tell. The other thing we should do with opinion polling is treat the u. K. As a city of regions. As a stated tonight those in the southwest adjusted that the liberal democrats would get hammered there, and they are summarily the so you get a feel of what is likely to happen. Nina i am joined once again by danny and isabel, what is the point of polling if all the way to the campaign we have heard it one thing, obviously with the margins of error, and something tonight, very different. Well, we dont yet know. One poll might say apart from that, ive been talking with others tonight about polling. The phone calls have consistently put the tories much higher than the internet polls. Until just a week ago. It might be that phone polls get more than internet polls, because when you talk to a real person youre more by looking more likely to say what you think. Exit polls are done any different way. You ask people how they voted and you can tell how they are lying. To make it have more accuracy the internet polls he might just put down whatever. In the past few days, the phone polls have come down toward the internet polls. I dont know why that happened. It could be that these polls are actually accurate all the way through and we are just discovering that now. Been a handful of results so far. At the moment, it is looking like they are going along with exit poll results. Yes, they suggest that the seats could have gone to the labour party but they have not gone to the labour party, they have gone to tories. So, those seats going to the conservatives have been small. This is not what people expected. A handful of seats have been declared, we make it we may get different results. Nina we have got to hand it back to tom. Tom there she is. She looks pleased, which she should be, because it seems like she will have one extraordinary night. [applause] we should say that we are waiting, of course Douglas Alexander, the idea that you could potentially be losing his seat, that is incredible. And yet that seems to be a realistic possibility, swept away by the tsunami that nicholas sturgeon nicholas sturgeon has brought. We have been looking at this very closely. The nose, at the moment if Douglas Alexander and many like him are being swept away in scotland. Lets go to emily morgan. Emily, did you vaguely predict that this might be, we are not there yet, but this might be the outcome . I certainly didnt. The polls have always looked bad, but they did not look this ad. In the mood here has really changed over the last few minutes. When the exit polls came out, we had a flurry of fact a fact. They said it was wrong, didnt match the data. But when people arrived here they did not expected to be this bad. It is disappointing. A blames the tory fear factor campaign, that appears to have worked. He also talked about nick clegg. Clague has run a positive campaign, he has always been confident and he always said he would defy the polls. Nobody expected them to get the 57 seats they did in 2010, but if they get these 10 seats, as of this exit poll predicts, it could be mere oblivion for the party. Nick clague clegg is at home jinx with his wife, he is due here in a couple of hours. Again, tension here is building. I hear, the turnout here is 77 whether that is good or bad, only time will tell. It would be staggering if he did not keep this seat. Who knows. Tom any sense at all, do you think he and his advisers are confident . Nick dismissed the idea that he would lose his seat. He did dismiss it and his advisers were dismissing it, but now they have gone quiet. They say it cant be predicted. They are worried. But the other 15,000 majority here, they said it would be staggering if that were overturned, it would be a bad night for liberal democrats obviously. Tom a difficult question, it is that time in the morning if liberal to cats and up anything like this at the end of the night liberal democrats and up anything like this at the end of the night, do you think it is conceivable that they would enter into any kind of arrangement with conservatives if that is what it takes to get the majority . We had simon hughes still talking about coalition, if it is in the National Interest. They have been talking about it and i am surprised, if they only get 10 mps it would be difficult for them to go back into coalition. The coalition, it will have decimated. If they go into coalition with the tories they only have 10 mps. Look what they have within the government, the mechanics, how would it work . Could all 10 have cabinet positions . It would be very strange. I do not see how they could get it, they have a triple system they have to get past that early executives, i just dont think they will be able. [indiscernible] tom emily in sheffield. Not long before we have nick clague nick cleggs results. We are looking at Nicola Sturgeon and glasgow. I dont think looking at this, i dont think it is much in doubt of the kind of evening they will have. I think really what we are looking at this point, we have dealt with questions about the government of the u. K. , who is going to be primus or, possibly David Cameron. Clearly, perhaps Party Officials have arrived. Beyond the questions on whether David Cameron will be the premise there, how he will get things to the house of commons the bigger question is about the future of the union, whether scotland, Nicola Sturgeon this will be a difficult decision for her. Another independence referendum will be back on in 2016. She did not talk about it. Others did not talk about it this evening. Nevertheless, there is an anonymous surge going on. She wont really want to think about it at the moment. Now im joined i made you all sit up here. You will remember i am, can i save politely that you have both been around. What do you make of what we are looking at this evening . If you look at the snp result in scotland, on the one hand and on euclids performance in wales. I think that is the main lesson i draw from tonight. It was evident to me that that was building up. You look at the Prime Minister and his behavior toward scotland and it is as if the conservatives and the snp have been feeding off each other. Cameron may have gotten a bounce off of that in england and it looks as if it is at the expense of the future of the United Kingdom. We have not heard the end of the scottish story yet. It is a serious message for the way that we do politics. Tom we were just looking looking at pictures of Nicola Sturgeon, her supporters in scotland. And now discussing it the question of whether we will get you another independence referendum put back on the ballot papers for elections in 2016. Do you think the union is under question again . We have been doing it for far too long, that is in question. It would be easy for us in the westminster bubble, as journalist to just the preoccupied with who is up and who is down. Those in the labour party, that is what they do well, and the conservatives do well. It seems to me, in the future of british parliamentary democracy, we have been declining in a support for both major parties going back 50 years. It is a longterm trend. That resentment at the moment, bringing out the snp. It is no good just carrying on as we have before, we have political institutions, which are unrepresentative. And we have a Second Chamber in the house of lords, which could be a vehicle for bringing the nations and regions together, if it were elected at the same time as mps. It has been introduced, the last government introduced. All sorts of questions, these are much more serious then individual states. Tom let me mention we are just starting to get results trickling through from scotland. As stephen, what is your, you are listening to what peter was saying, what is your take on the evening so far . My take is similar to peter not the same. What is happening, first of all one thing that does appear to be happening is that the turnout appears to be slightly better this time than it was last. Tom i will have to stop you and we will have to see whether or not alexander hold on. When i say now, i meant in a minute. I will wind you up again when they are at the point. The second point, yes it is true we are seeing a huge surge in the snp. That does bring questions. Not just what will happen in 2016, but the nature of political debate in scotland, tomorrow, next week, next month, for the rest of the year. That is a particular challenge i think, to the labour party. And some of what we are seeing in the election, very early in the evening, edging up in the turnout, improvements, a marginal improvement in our vote. And some very serious challenges to the labour party vote, in particular in scotland. It is a new analysis, newer than what peter is offering. Tom ponder this, we are looking at paisley and south. I was a student when he was a labour Party Activist. I was uselessly filling my time as a student out there is a labour Party Activist back in those days, he cannot have conceivably begun to imagine that a seat like this would be under threat. Here we are, on a nice knifes edge, do you feel a sadness for this. Is this falling apart . Its a terrible feeling because in douglas you have a capable politician. Regardless of policy, many people would agree about that. I think of other issue that we would add to what i said and even his right to correct me on turnout. Turnout, a lot of people felt disenfranchised, but they are turning out in great numbers. And from the register, we lost 5 million voters, because of the difference in registration. That is very serious for the future and health of our politics. One other point i would add over the last 30 years economics, the economy of the world, not just in britain, but in europe, america, not delivering for working people, whether they are workingclass skilled, manual workers, or traditional middleclass people, the rich at the top have been screaming away. Everybody else has felt squeeze. It is a revolt against that as well. And it gets expressed in various things and the main depositary for that, in england, in wales, and scotland, in the snp. Tom we mentioned, i understand that the candidates are behind that screen being spoken to, it is hard to know what is actually going on. It may be at his very close. I came to you steve, regardless of what is happening in scotland, or what is happening across the u. K. In terms of dissolution, we need a government. He remember the john major government, those years i remember them all too well. It was chaotic. What do you think a conservative government without a majority, or maybe a small majority at best, what you think that will be like . We dont know what the arithmetic will make possible. After the last election, the time of the election there was a lot of talk about an unstable government, if you remember. What was created was a Coalition Government with a working majority. We dont yet know if the arithmetic will make that possible but i agree that it is a priority and can be done. We will see what they have to say. Ladies and gentlemen i am ready to declare the results for the constituency. I, sandra black declare that the total number of votes given to each candidate was as follows Douglas Alexander, Scottish Labour Party 17,800 64 70,864. Black, scottish National Party 23,548. Daniel galloway, scottish conservative antiunionist 3526. Eileen mccartin, scottish liberal democrat, 1010. Emilio webster socialist party tom that is the moment for many and politics, that they would never see, as the polls predicted a man who served tony blair and gordon brown very closely, Douglas Alexander is out. And quite convincingly so. Lets take a look at the change in the share of the vote. On that basis, how many labor survivors will there be in scotland . You still have that one area of glasgow, whether it goes or doesnt. Nicholas glass Nicola Sturgeon there. The other thing, this swing is big. Tom what do you, maybe come back to this in a moment, but what do you make of this . A blow for douglas and at the Scottish Labour Party, the United Kingdom labour party, no question. Your point about sweeping, this avalanche in scotland, it seems to be a valid one. I come back to the point i was making, there are bigger forces underneath this political earthquake that is happening. Tom 10 turnout there as well. That is also people who have not voted in recent elections maybe for 1020 years. Tom what we cant say, is that this is voter disengagement from politics. It is voter engagement. Is a rejection of Traditional Party structures. I agree and we have taken the hits in the Scottish Labour Party and there are lessons to draw from that, but i feel that this is a cross party thing for major parties and the conservatives and liberal democrats. Tom you are trying to come in. Jane what peter was saying is fascinating, this is very strongly a very antiausterity vote. I think that those in wales are very to the left of their current party. I want to make the point actually that are both major parties at westminster, labor party the labour party has established itself as more tolerant of austerity than many of its supporters. When the Prime Minister came out and talked about english vote for english laws, he was reflecting real pressure on england. These pressures are real. They are not imagine. The opportunity to serve the people here is a joyful responsibility and i wish her all the success in doing that job in the course of parliament. I want to also take the opportunity to thank the officials of the council for discharging the responsibilities today. I place on record my immense gratitude to the people have done me the honor to let me be their representative over the past years. I will always be grateful for having had that opportunity to serve. I want to thank jackie my wife and my children who have endured many years of me and politics and my incredible team, i could not be more proud of the campaign that we have fought. This of course has been a difficult night for the labour party, scotland has chose to oppose the conservative government, but not place that trust in the labour party. It will be our responsibility to renew that trust in the months ahead. Thank you very much. Tom perhaps, it seems to me a very emotional Douglas Alexander there. Extraordinary moment for him really, losing a seat. He cannot have imagined in his wildest dreams that he would ever see a loss to someone new. We have pictures of the Prime Minister, perhaps he will the one being the Prime Minister perhaps not. David cameron arriving at his constituency in whitney witney. He looks happy about the way things are going. Lets go for a summary. Remind you of our exit poll which predicted that the conservatives would have the most seats at the end of the night, but not the majority. The poll puts the tories on 316 seats, labour party will be behind on 239, 10 seats for liberal democrats, two seats for ukip and the snp to have 58 seats. Early results in the target seats for labour party and tories are showing no shifts. There was a slight increase in the chance for labour party and the tories there and the constituents on the screen will be returning. Despite the labour party not taking certain seats, David Cameron could be David Cameron his head himself, the task of forming a majority able to govern on his own, that he would regard that as earlier, by those terms even if said this is at the top end of the expectations. He cannot govern on his own. Well has defended his position to go into coalition with the conservatives, even if it is resulted in a bad night tonight. My colleagues up and down the country, they have made a decision in the past and the National Interest, we knew it at the time that it would not be in the partys interest. We know it would we knew it would be a difficult move. The snp has begun to take seats from the labour party. Snp leader Nicola Sturgeon has told the news that she is bringing a new type of politics to westminster. Bringing a very historic shift to west minister. Its exactly what we intend to do but all the other things i said during the campaign, people across the u. K. Are trying to get proper more progressive voices into the heart of westminster, thats what were trying to do. Its early in the night. Julie i suspect we might here more from Nicola Sturgeon later on. Tom, because it might be worth an early check nf checkin to see what might lie ahead tom see just how bloody the battlefield looks, really. Julie lets ha had have a look at the Battle Ground which we looked at very early on. A visual snapshot of what is starting to fill out. On the far left these were the seats that the s. N. P. Already held from the prior parliament. Western isles staying with them. South perthshire, that was number one. Returning a majority of 5,000 there. Dundee west is now being filled out to s. N. P. Lets go along with Kathy Jamison in kilarnock. Lets go to falkirk. That has just fallen to the s. N. P. That is erik joyces old seat of course. Dundee west. There where else can we pick out for you. Just highlighting for you as we go along. Look about even just as we were speaking the right on Gordon Browns doorstep. Famous by election of course there. And this has been labour its entire history. This is the sort of thing were talking about tonight, that is extraordinary. This is going to stay in peoples memories add one of the moments of the night. Falling to the s. N. P. Tom the thing that strikes me, for example, when you put up the labour target abandon and an awful lot of the seats are under majority 3,000. But everywhere these enormous majorities. Presumably Gordon Browns former seat has to be under threat. Julie yes. Lets face it. With the exit polls were starting to see and the swings we are seeing as well, were talking about practically everything being in play here. Talking about the seat of the former Prime Minister gordon brown being under threat. Way down on the list there are even seats like orkney for example, been there since 1950, i think. Even glasgow northeast. We could actually see all the seats in gloss d glasgow its conceivable that glasgow turns from red to bright yellow. You look to be champing at the bit there. Peter if we put this in Historical Context julie, we are used to these swings in bi elections. What were talking about now in scotland is routinely were talking about 24, 25 swings. In dundee, where ok, yes half of the west half of the country, a 29 swing. We shrugged our shoulders oh, theres another one gone but this is unprecedented. I dont think there has been a single moment in history where a party has had this kind of shift in their favor or as far as labour is concerned against them. Tom maybe we can talk about the change in share if they we bring it up. This is a pattern thats turning out to be pretty consistent, isnt it, jane . Jane we see that clearly here in dundee west. Also some movement here in the west end. People like Charles Kennedy and Danny Alexander, who night my might be also losing their seats tonight to the s. N. P. , so its not just labour. Its a huge ground sbd swell. Its hard to not repeat. Julie this is history were starting to see filled out there. If we can look at that one tom the change there as well. See its do we think if there is a survivor, we said earlier probably orkney. Or maybe willry bayne down there in that done bartdonspire done barton shire swing was 30 . Julie this is a part of the electorate thats energized in a way that many of us couldnt grasp unless we had seen that independence referendum close up, jane. Thats sorted of the way, its jolted politics. Tom you covered that referendum. On the day that was over, did you think that was where we would end up . Julie astonishing isnt it . I interviewed Nicola Sturgeon and the fact that they suddenly accumulated 100,000 members, and the Largest Party list across the nation as a whole even she was still trying to get to grips with the size of the party she was suddenly leading the turnout is up about 9 . That really tells the us about the impact of the Scottish Independence referendum, not only getting out voters who havent voted for decades but those who voted for the first time Younger Voters, energized, they were expecting to see turnout among Younger Voters much higher in scotland than in england and that can have a longterm effect because we know going out to vote is a habitforming process. Julie a graphic just responded up here in terms of the change in shares tom julie when you were talking to sturgeon, you spent quite a bit of time with her. Do you think its inevitable that another independence referendum will be back on the ballot or is that much less clear . Julie it will be interesting to see what emerges from conversations later tonight which you will no doubt with have with her. But in the last couple months it wasnt on the table but with results like this tonight its all in play again, presume blifment but she was very particular, you know. She was saying we come here in offering support for an antiausterity alliance she was very keen to stress this formation she had made with the greens but very careful around the language of another Scottish Independence refer endup. But look what were witnessing now. Tom its going yellow there behind you a lit like a traffic life. I keep seeing the traffic light turning permanently yellout. Were going to speak to Nicola Sturgeon in a moment. And worth mentioning, the d. P. Has gained bell fasth east. That may be important, always important but it may be important because of the overall picture weve been talking about. Colin wanted to come in. Colin ive just seen a headline that col chester has been gained bit conservatives from russell. Again, a longserving m. P. , wellknown local character. Frankly he would have expected to survive and i think most people expected him to survive. Tom colchester wasnt even on the conservative target list. Jane we know most of the democrat votes went to labour but on the numbers in the exit poll it looks like the conservatives will get possibly double if not triple the number of libdem seats than labour will do. One of those fascinating things thats going to emerge as the night goes on. We know for sure liberal democrat voters dont all go to labour. Some go to the greens, to u. K. I. P. , and by far the most have gone to labour. The fact that the conservatives are looking like theyre going to do better at the ends and in the south and labour be looking to gain some in the north but the broader picture being just a terrible night for the libdems. More going to the tories. Tom how are you looking at your prediction earlier in the evening . Do you think the tory seats will come down or go up . If anything, i think we have undershot the conservatives. Certainly everything has thats happened so far would make us be even more robust about our original prediction. Another reason for that we saw the result from castle point which which was an outside u. K. I. P. Chance. All the threats to the conservatives, whether from loib larve labour or u. K. I. P. , so far havent materialized. Tom whether what do you think about he did detect to the tories but then he was out colin and the island which is part of the cat castle point area, quite closely al lied with the u. K. I. P. If you added autopsy up all the places that voted for a u. K. I. P. Style candidate over the last few years you would say they had a very good chanchs getting in there. Jane i think theyd rather have the conservative there than the labour candidate. Colin tom David Cameron, no question hes going to win. He seems to be having a good night. Much less clear is whether he is going to get the numbers. If all the trinds of this evening as we said several times, were actually trying to tell almost three separate stories. This enormous burst of the s. N. P. . Scotland, the collapse of the liberal democrats and then the question of who is going to actually form the government of westminster for the next few years . But it is very hard is it not, to imagine the liberal democrats entering into any kind of arrangement with the tories after this potentially blistering result . Jane it would be completely extraordinary. As i was saying earlier, at some point this evening, the liberal democrats, the only chance they have to gain some of their former voters is to stop pursuing that austerity mental theyve been part and parcel of in the conservativeled Coalition Government. So it would be very difficult for them to do it again. And you have to, you would have to predict i think that they, as i think some have said, guests in the studio, that they might just need time to recollect. Ceremony theyve got to build from their where they are. These votes are very bad for the party machine. They have to rebuild from the grass roots up to get anywhere like they have been and one of their big cards has been incumbency. They always believed they could old hold on to local candidates. I think people almost wanted wanted to give them an extra kicking when there had been a libdem in that. Almost done them a disservice. Tom worth just to remind you what you are seeing at the bottom of our screen there, basically were switching between the exit poll which were still putting up there and the seat. That in one sense the number of seats declared doesnt mean that much bus because there is no great logic about who declares first. As the evening goes on, we will update the exit poll at some point. Another s. N. P. Going there. For people who want to know, when will i know . When do you think you will begin to move from the exill exit poll to the results . Colin we knew the results would be slow tonight because most places in england still have local elections and some even have parish elections so there are more papers to sort out. So i cant imagine its going to be much before 4 00 when we have sufficient results to more of away from the exit poll. But i will say that the picture the exit poll presented, which was received skeptically at 10 00, is looking now tom you are used to that, right . Colin a successful poll is quickly forgotten, a bad one is remembered forever. But about scotland, the East Dunbartonshire is a pretty prosperous area on the northern outskirts of glasgow. Not poor, workingclass glasgow, which has also clearly going to the s. N. P. And we havent heard from the labour leader in scotland. Paisley and renfrewshire south gets a middle class area on the southern side. Tom the polls, it seems that the voters might be willing to vote tactically colin the problem quite clearly is that the nationalist side, with a small n and in inverted commas are all going to the s. N. P. The remaining combrunists are still divided between labour, the conservatives and the libdems. Thats putting it crudely. Tom wonder if where this will end up is the s. N. P. And one Unionist Party in scotland. Colin the Scottish Parliament has a proportional system and they remain to this day labour, libdem and conservative. Other members of the Scottish Parliament, their elections are next year. Even on these results, they would still have significant representation in the government thanks to proportionality, of which i suspect we might hear a little from some quarters in the next few days. Tom im sure we will. Nina . Nina everyone in the opinion room was crowded around. Everyone is talking about the s. N. P. Tell me more. Twitter is a public, realtime conversation and right now that conversation is about the s. N. P. A third of all tweets at this moment are about the s. N. P. First time theyve been the most talkedabout party all night. That is four times what it was app hour goog ago. Its kept climbing up. Take a look at nicola sturgean sturgeon herself. Active twitter user the has been live tweeting to her constituents. Yesterday she used our system to live stream to hundreds of her supporters. Now shes the biggest share of the conversation shes been since the scottish Leaders Debate last weekend. A very modern foreign minister. And just to remind you, we are talking about everything thats going on in this stream. Tom thank you. Nicola sturgeon, the s. N. P. Leader, is waiting for us. You have been cautious earlier on this evening but it does look like an extraordinary night to you. Let me start that sentence again. Sorry, its early in the morning. Looks like an extraordinary night for you. Nicola yes, it does looks as if what we are witnessing here in school. Scott is a historic shitcht in the political firmament. It looks very like the scottish people have switched their put their trust in the s. N. P. To do what we said in the campaign stand up for scotland and bring about an end to the problems. These are the promises we now take to the heart of the westminster agenda. Tom what happens next . Does it look like David Cameron will be the Prime Minister . What will be your reaction if that is the case . Nicola well, i hope not. I dont want David Cameron to be president. I dont want another tory government. We still had have a long way to go tonight. My position remains as in the campaign if the party arithmetic means there is an antitory majority then the s. N. P. Stands ready to lock david carmron out. If that does not prove to be the case, s. N. P. Will go to westminster to stand up for scotland and protect scotland against a tory government. But i still hope we have a situation where we can lock David Cameron out of 10 downing street. 8 tom while weve been talking Gordon Browns former seat has fallen to your party. Whats your reaction to that . Nicola its fantastic. Some of the results were seeing tonight are in westminster, historical, unprecedented. Some of the swidgess are beyond anything thats ever been witnessed in an election in the u. K. Before. Also very special results in terms of what they mean in historic terms. Weve seen the youngest ever woman elected to the house of commons, mary black. And i think shes the youngest person to be elected to the house of comons since 18something. So there are fantastic results across scotland tonight. We are witnessing something that is historic. It hasnt happened overnight. It has president even happened in seven months since the referendum but labours been losing touch with the people of scott and losing the trust of the people of scott now for many, many years. They havent listened and i think what they are surfing tonight as a party is down to them and to the fact that they have failed to listen and heed the messages that people of scotland have given them over a long period of years. Tom i doubt that anyone listening to this prom program would disrah degree with you in the sense that this does feel like a historic night for your party and very possibly for the United Kingdom as a whole. I guess where people are aids a little less sure is what exactly it means. I am know youve been asked many times but we have to ask again, does this make another independence referendum an inevitability at some point in the next years . Nicola no, it doesnt im going to Say Something unusual for a politician, stick to what i said in the campaign. I said explicitly and repeatedly during the campaign that it wasnt about independence, that even if we won every seat in scotland, though that was unlick likely, but no matter how many seats we end up with tonight its not a mandate for independent or another referendum. There will only be another referendum if the people vote for that in the Scottish Parliament. But what it is a vote for is a strong voice in parliament and whoever it is tomorrow has to heed the messages of the people in scotland. Tom but in all honesty we can hear the cheers behind you. Seats are falling to your party one by one. Enormous majorities are overturned. If you had said that Gordon Browns seat was going to go to anybody but the labour party, even three months ago people who would have thought you thought you were absolutely crazy. But what is happening is this. Despite scotland saying it wants the voice of the people in westminster, it looks as if the rest of the u. K. May have skieded to send back a conservative government. That means the votes of your people would not count for nothing nicola s. N. P. Votes will certainly be not count for nothing the if there is a conservative government, all the more important to have a strong s. N. P. Voice standing up for the people. But i would not say the s. N. P. Vote today is an endorsement of voting for independence 79 i think the votes were going to end up with tonight proves that its not just the people in the reverend last year who voted s. N. P. But others are pet putting their trust in the s. N. P. For people of scotland, i will say we will not let you down we will not did we will do what we said we would do, go to westminster and shake up westminster. Tom but with respect, how are you going to shake up respect if youre not going to be anywhere near its government necessarily . Nicola well, lets see how the results end up i remember times in the past, not too distant past where the party had a very small number of m. P. s and were able to make a conservative go. We dont yet know what the parliamentary arithmetic across the u. K. Will look like but i do know for certain, s. N. P. Will make their voice heard. Tom it looks as though its possible you could win every vote in every seat in scotland. Do you think thats possible . Nicola im not going to stand here and that i say that anythings not possible. Just a few days ago what many thought impossible is happening here tonight. I tweeted earlier on this evening or yesterday evening when the exit poll was published i thought 58 seats was unlikely. Ill stick to that for now though ill be delighted to be proved wrong. Tom Nicola Sturgeon, thank you very much indeed. During that interview, we called Gordon Browns seat, suggesting that the labour party has lost. Lets see what is happening there. Scottish conservativist and unionist, 5,223. David leslie scottish liberal democrat, 1 will, 150. Roger mullin, scottish National Party, 27,628. Jack neal, u. K. Independent party, 1,237. Scottish labour party, 17,654. Tom well, there we are. The s. N. P. Again is going through one by one here. Still worth saying weve seen Douglas Alexanders seat fall, the gordon brown seat. Anywhere staggering to come to grips with. Weve repeated this and we dont want to do so to the point of being boring but that is a simply staggering result. Philip hammond the foreign secretary, is waiting for us. Thank you for joining us at this hour of the morning. Before anything else can i just get your reaction to what is going on in scotland . It seems somewhat extraordinary in political terms. Well, i think it reflects the collapse much labour. The fact that labour have taken the people of scotland for granted for so long and theyre reaping that harvest now. Tom is that all it reflects . Do you think well be back to another independence referendum sooner or later . No, i think weve settled that question but what weve done since the referendum is made a very clear offer of a big package for the people of scott scotland. More autonomy for the people of scotland. Were committed to doing that and in the next parliament i hope we will have a majority for pushing that through and giving the people of scotland the additional autonomy that was promised to them so that they can prosper within the union. Tom turning to the u. K. More broadly, you have seen our exit poll and a lot of results going through. No doubt youve also spoken to all kinds of people at headquarters. What do you think the picture is at this point in the evening . Is there any chance of you getting a majority . Whats your take on it . Well, its early days and as you say, it is only a poll and were all working with the exit poll at the moment but i think the results that weve been seeing do reinforce what the exit poll is telling us, that labour have clearly lost. This is a victory for the Prime Minister an increase in the number of conservative seats predict and in those key veats that have already declared in england, were actually seeing conservatives that have been aggressively targeted by the labour party seek conservative seats that are on the labour partys hit list actually swinging towards the conservatives with increased majorities in place like the bellwether swindon seat, seats that have always been the key to the result in england. So i think the earth results are increasing our level of confidence but it is very early days here and we have to see what happens over the course of the night tom with respect, victory is when you have a majority. In that sense perhaps not surprising the but you are not there yet. Do you think that if these numbers were correct purely hypothetically, that you would be able to govern . If so, with whom . Well, look, if the numbers are correct we will be the Largest Party just short and he will do that as he has made clear on many occasions, as he did in 2010, in the National Interest. Looking at what is best for britain, taking into account the best for britain. The british people want to stick to the plan we have been implementing since 2010. They want us to finish the job and get britains economy on track to have a Better Future for the country. That will be the principle that will guide him in putting together a government. Tom philip hammond, thank you very much, indeed. But go to the you cant lets go to the ukip constituencies. Reporter we are looking for the constituencies they have been targeting, but outside market margagte, there has been an anticampaign party. There were a few glum faces here earlier, because senior Party Officials and a big donor to the party have told me are saying it looks more likely that nigel farage has come second in this constituency. The best assessment was between him and the conservative candidate is way for them wafer thin. The count is taking place right now in the next couple of hours. You could hear the results as early as 6 00. If he does not win the seat, he has already said he will step down as the leader of the party. The course of events likely to follow that would be that he would offer resignation to the Partys National executive committee. He is due to go to the senate later today for a ve celebration. Looks like nigel farage will not win the constituency. He has foregone a National Campaign to concentrate efforts on winning this seat specifically, so it would be a big defeat if he is not successfully are. Successful here. He was talking about winning a handful of seats. The exit poll suggests ukip might win two seats in this election. Tom you said they were saying it was wafer thin. Seems unusual to be conceding this early in the evening. You did an interesting interview with nigel farge where he did not seem in the best of moods. Reporter no, and having spent six weeks with him, he was in a comparatively bad mood. That wafer thin assessment is the most positive we are hearing. Most people are saying it looks more like a secondplace. What they are saying has happened is that many labour supporters have actually voted conservative. They believed tactical voting in order to keep nigel farage out of south bends member of parliament. Tom when we said that werent sure worrik worrickshire being a labour game, we meant it was a conservative hold. Reporter did you get the sense that he was not going to overturn the 7000 plus majority . There were two problems for nigel farish. You had an active labour candidate that was not hard to hold up labour voters, which nigel farage needed to offset conservative voters. What looks like may have happened, if he is second or third, is possibly that labour has held up more than farage wanted, those conservatives reflecting what is a national picture, really turning to the conservatives in order to keep nigel farage and ukip out. He said if he lost, he would resign, so we are in for an interesting 48 hours. Reporter what has he done wrong . Did he manage expectations badly . It is the comic book persona. It failed here. It worked for boris, not for nigel. He is not credible. We have evidence, evans and flynn. Reporter if farage does not make it, what does it mean for the future of ukip . What does it mean for David Cameron if he goes back into number 10 . Can he ignore ukip . I do not think nigel farage will resign for long. He will resign as he promised but sooner or later, when ukip seems to be floundering, he will come back. In the interim, i think this would assist David Cameron if he wants to turn the conservative party in a rather more generous direction than the last new years. She has always been nervous looking over his shoulder. For a little while, he does not have to. This is a really Good Opportunity for David Cameron to seize the initiative and come across as a generous leader as he was in the beginning of his leadership. Reporter do you agree that farage has not saved ukip but can get away with it another time . A charismatic populist can get away with quite a lot. But there is an interesting dynamic, in terms of broader political context. If you put your cells in the shoes of a eurosceptic, they have the prospect of a referendum, a conservative leader who is going to campaign to remain in the eu, and nigel farage is probably looking at broader context and the fact his party has been making gains into labour territory in the north where you have big elections in wales, another series of by elections. Having interviewed him a number of times, i would be amazed if he can stay away from that political context for long. Reporter what about the people who turned to ukip this time especially in the European Election . This man that was suddenly talking direct way directly to them. Where do they go if this is the beginning of the demise of ukip . It is not the demise of ukip. Labour has fallen in the south. People want policy not pints. The are going to regroup around another strongman. The issue is that the north is going to be a ukip stronghold. They will see the vote coming further down. Reporter we have to break in for our next result. Tom is jim murphys truancy constiuency. Scottish liberal democrat, 1,069. Robert mueller mullin, 888. David montgomery 12,400 xp five 12,465. James murphy, scottish labour 19,295. [applause] Kristin Francis 20,000. Tom the snp sweeps. Jim murphy, the man who partially led the campaign against the referendum, day after day fighting very hard. He is out. A staggering moment. First Douglas Alexander, then gordon brown. You probably heard Colin Rallings talking about how it was once the tories safest seat in scotland. It seems some voters were voting tactically to keep jim murphy in place. He cannot be feeling cher cheery. This is an extraordinary moment. We will come back to hear what jim has to say. Maybe you can put it into context. It is going yellow fast. Where do we put jim murphys seat . Reporter it just turned yellow as you were speaking. It is in the far end of swings necessary for the snp to take the seats. We are seeing one of the seats the snp always looks to, they took that briefly, then it went back to labour. John nicholson has taken dun bartyh. We mentioned Danny Alexander at the beginning of the evening but have not heard much at. These are extraordinary seats to contemplate. Only that they have gone to the snp, but the swings by which they are taking them. We will see this continue. We will see which ones are left standing. Glasgow north fell to the snp too. Tom eding edinbuergh south might be a survivor as well. Reporter we will see in the next batch. But it is fitting out. We have other battlegrounds. Tom the tory battlegrounds, how is that going . Reporter lets go back to our battleground largely labour conservative. On the righthand side of the dividing line, the closer to the dividing line, the easier they should be for parties to pick up. But have a look at labour targets. And the ones conservatives managed to hold, worrickshire north. Conservatives are holding a majority of 54. The figures are well worth looking at. Tracy will be the new mp for that seat. Tom lets bring colin in here. Colin you have a positive swing to the conservatives. Not the sort of as you were. Jane this is another seat where ukip voters are coming out in droves, but not enough to make a decisive difference. It just goes to show that the exit polls we have seen so far everything stacking up in the same direction. Colin there was a conservative gain in wales. Reporter we will take you down to acton, which im going to check on. Away from the center, you can see a redline that has appeared to one of the conservative icons. You can have a look at the figures. Colin a very narrow majority. But there is a big turnout. What appears to have happened quite a prosperous london seat the liberal democrats have clearly gone to labour in a big way. In suburban parts of the country further afield, the consensus has deviated. Reporter that take a look at the wide shot. It is starting to fill out. Tom it is turning out to be rather tricky. Carl has been with ed miliband all to the campaign. What is the mood in the camp tonight . Reporter they have been quite chatty through all of this. I had breakfast with ed miliband this morning. He was in a good mood. In the last few hours, it has all gone very quiet for the miliband camp. There has been a very interesting statement in the last halfhour from a labour source in london. I will read it out to you. They say results in scotland were very difficult. I think we can agree with that. The seats the snp are taking will turn out to be crucial if David Cameron ends up in number 20 10. So they are talking about if David Cameron ends up back in number 10, a big change in language from labour from the skepticism in the exit polls we were hearing earlier. Tom do you think may have accepted the exit poll is roughly right . Reporter it is certainly heading that way in a lot of places. Not necessarily here. I have been chatting to people here. Ed milibands seat is very safe. Carolyn flint has increased her majority, ukip also doing well here. It is not uniform by any means but certainly, the exit poll is starting to look like it was right in scotland. The statement i just read seems to admit that. It may be coming true in other parts of the country. There has been a lot of talk about a squeezed middle. It feels like the squeezed middle is the labour north of england with conservatives squeezing them out of the south. Tom it does begin to look like that. We have to have more snp gains in the last few minutes. Lets hear what jim murphy had to say. I would like to start by thanking everyone for what you have done today in securing the election. I would like to thank the returning officer and staff for the professional way in which the count was conducted. And thanks to my agent and Campaign Team who have worked so hard on also to levels over the past few weeks. You are a tribute to the labour party. I will be forever indebted to the thousands of hours you put into the campaign. I would like to congratulate kristin and david robert for the spirit in which the campaign has been fought. As we know, ramfordshire is diverse in scotland. It has been a real pressure to represent our area in parliament for the past 18 years. Kristin, i know what it is like to come from behind in an election in this constituency. And i know that you will cherish the opportunity your victory has provided you with. I wholeheartedly congratulate you and wish you every success on your parliamentary career in standing up for the people of re nfrewshire. I have had the chance to serve in governments, labour governments, under tony blair and Gordon Brown Tom jim murphy giving a very gracious victory speech. I remember speaking to him when he was pondering if he would take on leadership of the labour party. Certainly, he felt he could fight back and stand a decent chance of turning their fortunes around. I do not think he could begin to imagine at that point anything like what has happened tonight. It will be interesting to see if he and Douglas Alexander, what they choose to do with their career. Whether they fight in Scottish Parliamentary elections or take a different path. Certainly, they could not have imagined they would end up here. Scotland is such a big story. In one sense, it is distracting from the labourtory battle. On thursday, the seventh of may, 2015, i, maureen larkin, do hereby give notice the number of votes recorded for each candidate in the election is as follows. Baron, john charles 22,668 votes. [applause] callahan, gavinm, labour party 10,186 votes. [applause] constandis georgio ukip 8,538. [applause] tom that is the conservative old. No surprises. Lets look at what has happened to the ukip share of the vote. Worth noting that grimsby has just gone through as a labour hold. That was a ukip target. Lets have a quick look at the vote share in basildon. What do you make of that . Jane a big change, but not as big as some that we had seen. We would count them in the ukip but nevertheless, it is a safe conservative seat. Tom grimsby was somewhere that ukip had strong hopes of gaining at one point. It drifted away a bit. Colin one got the impression ukip targeting had become narrower. I suspect that is probably the best chance of ukip hitting a seat if, as we seem to think nigel very just not going to win. Tom so much is going through this evening. David cameron has said he will not want back into downing street unless he can guarantee a referendum on the european union. That is an interesting question given how categorically he said it. Perhaps we can come back to that later. Lets go to the opinion room with nina. Reporter another really big labour scalp. Lets get some explanation. Lets try with Elizabeth Linda from facebook. What explanation can you offer . What we have here is a map taking a look at the likes on the labour page and where they come from. They are primarily concentrated in metropolitan centers. Quite pale in much of the u. K. A few days ago, the most discussed issue switched from health to the economy. How did that potentially play into what we are seeing here . Out of 16 million interactions before the election, 14 were related to labour. Reporter so the major topics swapped. Elizabeth, thank you. Lets get more thoughts on what seems to be a bad night for later. Im labour. Im joined by isabel hartman. Thank you for joining us. Owen, where to start . I know you have touched on this previously, but we are seeing the evidence of big scalps. A catastrophe of scotland is unforgivable. Scotland provided many leaders of the labour party. Kay hardy founding leader of the labour party, formed an alliance with the tories. It caused an absolute collapse in support amongst traditional scottish labour voters. They defected en masse. To have the bitterness of exlovers. They hate labour and regard them as the red tories. I spoke to the leader of scottish labour. They said that decision was a mistake of historic proportion. Reporter we have a tweet from the labour mp. Cap say that labour leadership were not warned repeatedly. It never hurts to listen. Jenny, did they not listen . There were huge concerns about ed miliband. That has been a common theme of everybody in the labour party in the last four years. A lot of people wished ed miliband well, even when he won the leadership against other candidates. But it was very insular and did not turn to all people in the labour party. They did not consult widely. Tony blair had a policy of going out and voting a big tent, bringing on board also to people , even those who are not liver support. Were not labour supporters. So as john mann says, there were so many people who try to meet with him to talk about where they were going with business, welfare. Reporter and did they get caught up in the campaign, did that he them down a path where they thought it was going to be all right . I think that is certainly what people thought. We all thought that. In the last six weeks, ed miliband found a public voice that has eluded him for 4. 5 years. But labour spent so long planning their future and not talking to people creating the right image, crafting a message that people would want to listen to. What people were desperate to hear something different. They are paying the price. Reporter isoble, you are not in nodding. They came too late. There were scottish constituencies. It is most apprise that people find the snp more exciting. Reporter martin lewis, this was about the economy but labour turn this into the cost of living crisis. That became common speak. Is that what this is all about . Cost of living had a real grip. Labour had a strong hold on it. I remember talking about policies. The message i got back was, we do not want to engage in that. It is labour territory. Freeze on Energy Prices when they are coming down. The tuition fee cuts. And that would only benefit students of 35,000
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