Thank you for joining us. Today, we have five phenomenal experts and we are very excited about this panel. We have an hour together. We invite you to put your questions into the chat or to send us questions on twitter. I will be glad to direct them to the right person. Without further ado, we have the Jeanne Kirkpatrick the at the council on Foreign Relations and contributed to the washington post. We have the former supreme allied commander in europe and a great event of the Eurasian Center and a board director. We have a senior policy regime a the grand corporation and everything he write is where the meeting. Really glad to have her and finally, he will be a couple minutes late, the former minister of defense. Distinguished fellow at the Eurasia Center and is chairman of a great think tank in key have called the centre for Defense Strategies. If youre not getting his daily updates get online and have a look. Centre for Defense Strategies really helpful. I want to make the most of our time ago to general breedlove. Take us off please. Two weeks ago ukraine launched its longawaited counteroffensive to retake territory in the south. How much character would you expect ukraine to liberate and what are the challenges they will face and how things going so far . General breedlove, the floor is your. Thank you for having me, and what a great group. I look forward to several of these grading my papers and cracking my answers. To hit the large question first, i really believe that this offense is can have a major effect on this war. But i will catgut that by saying upfront and roll a grenade out on the table, and that really is that is to be determined by leaders in the west. If were going to provide ukraine what it needs, ukraine has the wherewithal, the field in forces and the will to make a difference. And so largely how this rolls out will depend on what the west has done to help supply the effort. Skipping out to kind of what we see on the ground, and there are several who have raised hundred more recent experience in these i hope they will add some point as well. It appears that despite all of the news, and there is an aggressive Disinformation Campaign out of their about whats going on in the south, learned individuals on the ground and reporters are seeing successes, limited successes at this point, successes by Ukrainian Forces. And they appear to be trying as you know the whole areas dominated by a series of rivers and river inlets and bodies of water, and they are attempting to use the geography and the limited throughput and roads and bridges to to in their attaco buy the Russian Forces and make them feel exposed and vulnerable on the west side of the river, causing major problems for russia. And they are having some small town by town successes. Probably nothing that we would call major at this point but the major point is that in some way they are moving forward. They are beating some resistance. As you know russia has added to their forces in the area meeting the bottom line is ukraine is having some limited successes. And i think i will leave it at that because the confusion out there is important. The biggest point to walk away from here is that i believe rush is beginning to feel vulnerable in the south. And you saw some hints by some senior russian leaders yesterday of the possibility of resuming talks. Albeit to meet only the russian objective, but the mere fact that they come back to the table i thinks is something about what they are feeling in the south. Thanks so much. Dara would you jump in and build on that point . We have a press blackout its hard to get information, how do we figure out whats actually going on . Say more about the disinformation you are seeing. Thank you so much having. So as we talk about in the beginning it would how to make sense of whats going on even for someone who is been dealing in the space for a long time. You see coming from both sides to on the russian side, russian telegrams in particular what often do is look at the negative space, what they are not showing. If you go to the major channels notified that whats happening in curse on. I suspect that selflimiting behavior. Theyre not supposed to talk about too much or they could trip up new russian laws the basically considered anything the common come doesnt a felony offense. Also i advocate ukraine social media to make sense of whats happening, try to keep in mind that this active ongoing battle. People are not providing detailed information on daytoday operations. I. I understand that pickett makes it difficult to make heads or tails of the from and analytics perspective. What i assume it is similar to what general breedlove mention that both sites are not really, they dont represent anything they would consider a major victory at this point because otherwise they would show it to. Or they would discuss it. That goes to the russians or ukraine said. I am patiently for updates. Great, thanks dara. We are glad to have you. They begin you come back from kherson and using a close with his offensive looks like. What did you see and what of the challenges did ukrainian face in trying to liberate this territory that havent been mentioned . You unmuted, vivian. Inc. Is a much having me. I spent almost two weeks doing a slow crawl eastward and it was a really interesting dynamic that you saw their geography being a huge factor in all of this. And what i mean by geography is just the landscape of the south. And the weapons they were receiving from the u. S. As being very beneficial. We know from what is now ukrn forces have been literally begging u. S. And other allies to send longerrange missiles, longerrange assistance to help them. And in the south that was especially critical because we are talking about vast fields of watermelon and wheat and sunflowers, and theres really no cover for the soldiers. One of the things i heard from them and it probably visited over a dozen checkpoints and frontlines accommodation of the to some of them were quieter than others, some of them were being really, really hammered while we were there. One of the things theyre saying is because of the geography, because of those fields they dont have cover. And between Russian Forces being so skilled in using the drones whereas the ukraine is severally struggled with that because the russians are very good at jamming their drones. Secondly, the russians are so good at digging trenches and utilizing them to their advantage. They had just been getting completely hammered and having to fall back further and further and further. When i got in late june or july they start seeing results. I mean literally it was like a flip of a switch where whk before we had gone there my team and i, we were hearing one of the units that we visited had seen basically a massacre. They had lost tons of forces. And when we went and saw them a week after that horrible battle they were sitting in a courtyard taking a break smoking their cigarettes and kind of just getting a few minutes of downtime. Clearly very common type of what it happened to them but they said straight out that already even though they just received a high mark it gave them a bit of an edge theyre able to inch forward and they had just recaptured a small village near to where we were. So they do see that to them is a huge advantage just the fact they are able to make a few feet worth of game for them is a big change to what had been happening previously whether getting hammered. Now, they recognize that a few feet is hardly a major victory by do this for them of victory. They could be the opposite. They are very optimistic now. They believe more high marks will continue to make a difference himars. The matter what we say no matter how many himars to get Russian Forces are pouring in resources to these areas. Theyre utilizing whatever advantages they have in the landscape as far as supply routes along the rivers, bombarded, bombed out bridges, whatever they can use to their advantage to hold off Ukrainian Forces they are doing so. The russian government has no problem piling soldiers in even as they get massacred one after the other by Ukrainian Forces. It sort of this Endless Supply or so they think of Russian Forces. And so its been a struggle for them. I spent a lot of time theres a lot of differences of ice on that front liked what we saw in the south but the south they do believe at this stage they are in a position to make incremental gains. Its going to be a long way to go but its the change of what we saw just a couple of weeks ago and so that is something very positive. Vivian, are these numbers correct, at one point the greens were saying they were losing up to 200 men a day and after himars it was close to 30. All those numbers correct or what did you hear in your reporting . Go ahead, thank you. Those of the official numbers we keep on hearing and anecdotally from what i was hearing from the various units on the front lines it this seem like theyre losing far fewer soldiers. Definitely the units i visited were telling me that much, that they were losing men left and right, there were a couple of battles that which is really ugly as recently as early july. And not only with a losing fewer soldiers but there were also making gains as a result of the himars coming in. Definitely just with that alone they believe that is a huge advantage to them because between manpower and the loss of weapons the loss of drones, all of those things have been very critical for them to make even the slightest gains and they do believe now that is changing in their favor. What are the military guys you talk on ukraines side saying for the counteroffensive . Six months . What kind of timeframe . Its funny ask that because when you ask him i interviewed the ministry of defense, my second time anything in this year, and it was very positive and believe may be late summer or early fall where you could start seeing targets against crimea with longrange missiles. You could start seeing some gains, maybe they would be an kherson by this point may be by late and october. You talk to the soldiers and they will tell you a very different story. They will tell you let kyiv think whatever they want we believe will be a lot longer than that. They were very sober about their assessment for what the timeframe was. They didnt want to kind of give an estimate of what this it is we know when were ready, we know when this battle is going to tip in our favor and were just not there yet. I caution people to kind of take what you are hearing on the government and the spokes get for the armed forces with a grain of salt because when you go to the front lines the commanders of those forces will tell you something very different and they are a lot more conservative about any kind of estimate. They believe the assessments being out there in the public is good for momentum to keep soldiers revved up and have them believe that this battle is in their favor, but when you go there and see the traumatized look under faces and just like how brutal and how slow and painful this battle has been, you recognize that maybe theres truth to both stories in terms of maybe average summer in the middle of what the timeframe could be. Thanks a lot. Thats really helpful. Max i would like to bring you in. In. Can we talk about time . In the Analytic Community we have this long argument about is type on russia site or ukraines side . I would like to hear your views on that. Do you think ukraine is facing a race against the clock to make big gains before winter sets in . And do you think realistically it can happen before winter sets in . The floor is yours. Ive gone back and forth on that question. You can make arguments on both sides but what i would say big picture right now is that certainly kherson and the south the terms need to be just as theres a lot to be german in east as well. The Bigger Picture right now i think its fair to say that ukraine has already won its war of independence because remember when putin launched this evil war of aggression on february 24, this plan was to march into kyiv in three days. He was going to take over the entire country in the matter of weeks. Pretty clearly that is not happen and is not going to happen. Putin will look to break ukraine a part and to dominate, and explosive it to russia. Thats not going to happen. Instead of leading division in ukraine, the russian information has led to ukrainian unity and it shows well over 90 of ukrainians believe that the work will be successful and they support the president zelensky and his contact of the war. So there is rock solid Ukrainian Support for the war effort. There have been some hidden victories for ukraine that is not gotten the attention they deserve. For example, on july 22 agreement under which russia agreed to allow ukraine to start exporting grain and other agricultural goods once again under u. N. Auspices. This is hoping to spike putin was using to try to bludgeon ukraine and its allies. And so far i would say on the economic front the Russian Energy weapon has also not produce the result putin wanted because he thought by threatening energy cost he could make your Software Support for ukraine thats a happy. The europeans they are finding ways around Russian Energy despite the recent cut off of the nord stream one pipeline and so forth. And certainly support from u. S. Remains very strong and still largely bipartisan, despite the caucus within the Republican Party. Overall, obviously nato has been strengthened with sweden and finland joining. So putin is not achieving his objectives. Wasnt just his initial objective of taking over all ukraine he is not a cheat. He hasnt even achieved his immediate objective laid out in april of taking all of dont ask. They have make any gains in the donbas jan that and now the ukrainians have the initiative. The ukrainians are on the offensive. I does what distressed were talking about what is the nature of the crane offensive very hard to see what other prospects but right now more than six months into the war the russians had suffered very heavy losses and the ukrainians are on the offensive and the ukrainians have the momentum. And to get back to. General breedlove made, if we would just step up eight the to ukraink that could make dramatic gains on the ground. They are turned around this war with truth and 20 himars missions. Imagine what they could do with 60 with f16s, m1 tanks. We have all the stuff we should be getting it to the ukrainians. They can put it to very good use. I think they have elements right now i dont know the final outcome of the territory in ukraine but i think we can say that putin has not achieved his warnings. Ukraine has basically won its war of independence and now the question is how much of its own territory will ukraine control . The question of whether the would be an independent prowestern Democratic State in ukraine or not i dont think that is any longer on the table. I think ukraine has achieved a massive, massive victory in that regard. Super. Thanks maxtor given such a clear consistent voice throughout this invasion and you and general breedlove and others have urged the administration to provide more and better weapons. At this an argument we keep hearing from the white house on the Biden Administration from the National Security council, and that argument is russian escalation. The Biden Administration keeps insisting russia can escalate and we cant go to for and he keeps changing the red line. Red line. Weve seen them do it over and over again. What do you make sense, how do you respond to the escalation argument . I agree that we should not be sending u. S. Troops to fight in ukraine, even though the soviets and the chinese certainly sent their forces to fight us in korea and vietnam and russians operating Fighter Aircraft shooting at americans and green so forth. Im not advocating we do that but it think pretty much anything short of direct military intervention is fair game. I dont understand the logic that says like we can send ukraine rockets with a range of like 4050 ma spoke against an rockets with a range of 150180 miles. So if we do the 50mile rocket thats okay. If we do the 150, putin will launch world war iii. I dont see any invitation that putin is suicidal or he is about to launch a nuclear war. Yes, he is evil and he is miscalculated. Truthfully we miscalculated and our wars but is not a sign you are deranged or irrational. It just means you with a victim of very bad intelligence. I think the russians were victims of very bad intelligence. Ukraine we have seen putin is made very rational moves once he saw kyiv was going to fall. He retreated and focus on donbas. He thought he could make gains. He has been i think in some ways although the invasion of is an act of supreme evil, he has been largely somewhat fairly cautious and now he is been conducting himself. He has not been even though we know all the military inquiries come from countries like poland. Is he attacking poland . No, because he doesnt want to start world war iii. Again i dont think we need to worry too much about triggering putin by sending more military equipment. As long as were not sending american troops. The ukrainians on ugly use the bomb. I think they need more of these capabilities to try to retake more of their lost territory. Wonderful. General breedlove i saw youths shaking your head. I know you want to jump in an escalation. What else did max ms. Are getting a lot. Was im shaking my head up and down and electorate because i was agreeing with things he said and i was agreeing with things he said was wrong. Im in agreement with most of what max said. The bottom line is we are determined and mr. Putin is doing a very good job of deterring us. And we have to figure out, one, how to get out from behind it. Three president in the past have stood up to russia amongst every bit as tough a situation. We took almost of italian of troops off the face of the earth in northern syria. We flew release and supplies into georgia wow really there was a lot of war still being fought. We stood up in the cuban missile crisis and came out the of the site of that just fine. And i agree with max. I dont think that he is suicidal. We have to respect what he is saying but others have respected what the russians have said and they stepped out and taken those right steps. And i believe that as now two or three of us had said, the ukrainian are succeeding in many ways, but we are very much throttling their approach to the war and doing that by limiting supplies et cetera, et cetera. And so i think that really whats happening right now is our policy decision more than anything else. Thank you so much. Andriy zagorodnyuk thank you for joining us. Andriy was a former zelensky is First Defense minister and a great friend of the atlantic council. Hey, andriy. This is a question for you and dara. You guys are good specials on a russian army. Id like to ask you andriy and then dara can you please assess the russian army six months in . Many say their morale is breaking and no one wants to serve in ukraine. They argue russia is using old missiles and running out of equipment. Thats one school of thought. Other say russia as splenda sophisticate or weapons but it hasnt moved in. How strong do we think is a russian side and how long can they hold out . So i think that truth is somewhere in the middle. We definitely can say russian armies are not completely exhausted no capabilities whatsoever. We see they been exhausting the stokes and parts of their world capability which they sent the ukraine because we have destroyed like an enormous amount of weapons. We are talking about hundreds of planes and thousands of vehicles and i know we see like tens of thousands casualties. At the same time they do currently higher new recruits. They bring in Additional Units and essentially all these targets which they put to the te generals come almost targets are delivered. They cannot say that they cannot hire people. Of course the devil is in the details and in our case come for us its better because the forces that are shaping are very low. They also have some specific units which they hired literally from the street with no backgrounds, with no training and they trained them and they have National Unions and they have units which are essentially like absolutely no [inaudible] and no background experience. Have all kinds of options to avoid the fact that indeed there is no overwhelming desire of russian people to join the army. So i would say that indeed they certainly cannot escalate, they cannot double their efforts right now but i believe they can continue with the current president of the troops. They can continue and have 150,000 troops around the ukraine in different operational direction for quite a long time. The good news is that the readiness of those troops and their training and capability generally, the level of lets say coolidge other capability will be lower and lower. So as this war goes of course they would be losing more people and that desire to join would be diminishing. I have to say that of course there also mobilizing offensive [inaudible] and what they do is disastrous and disgusting because her putting them on the front line, on the first line, and we already heard that in some cases they were retreating and they were shot when they retreated. Basically meaning they are throwing them in order to die first. And then the rest of the Russian Troops dissipate. But thats what is currently happening. Now the question is about the statement that they still have a lot of sophisticated equipment. They do have a lot. They ran out of the caliber missiles to lets say 60 we believe. Same thing with maybe have that same time based on quite a lot. At the same time they cannot completely deplete their stocks to ukraine. They cannot be in a situation that no weapons at all. Of course they will keep reserves, keep the reserves on different parts of the world. They still try to maintain their Global Posture so that would be keeping present in central asia and so on and so on. Question is not like what russia has. Question is like what russia can commit to ukraine. What theyre happy to commit and what they can actually put in order to progress with this invasion effort. We believe they dont have enough to progress essentially. We are saying currently we manage to stop their advances and we believe that any case if we receive sorry, win. When we receive more weapons we will be able to boost in some directions quite well. I guess we are seeing currently like russian army quite devastated. It cant be underestimated but certainly not capable of doing like invading ukraine. So thats sort of massive target which was objective is unattainable at the moment as well. This i will very quickly, two senses. Of course this is completely very interesting because we essentially with a few ships which we know we can keep them basically in the harbor. So we exercised that access to no consequences were going to continue, i think the prospects of Russian Black Sea fleet destroyed that. I think we can think of, we can see being like completely destroyed or diminished to the point that it plays a very limited role. Its optimistic but i think its achievable. Certainly they dont play that role which they planned to play originally. Obviously the fact that we didnt allow them to get air superiority and we still our air defense is still reasonably capable and still doing some great job, i think its remarkable. Im going to stop you there. Dara, what did and the mess . Anything else in your assessment of the Russian Military six months in . I agree with andriy on most of his assessment. I would note that all of russias acute problems with personal shortages and moving some of the best equipment in early phases, expanding so many other hyper munitions theyre trying to take plan b ad hoc way to overcome these challenges. They are trying between 90 different pools of people to try to fill these ranks comes fill spots on the front lines. Their recruiting from prisons. There are rumors their recruiting from psychiatric institutions. Its just really trying to get bodies and put them on the front line, receiving anywhere up to four weeks of basic training at most. This is really not a successful way to solve this problem, as one might expect. I will allow them to replenish the current front lines but i shut the assessments of the group that this is not something that is going to allow them to make really rapid gains forward. They just cant do it but there is an effort at replenishment underway. With respect to the equipment that they lost, they really lt not only just the equipment itself but the best trained crews that operate them. So tanks, artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, some of the best equipment just got out so shredded particularly up north. They cant readily recover from that. They do have thousands of equipment, pieces of equivalent stuck in storage for its been sitting and open siberian fields for 15 years now. Not all of it works. Not all of it works well. Theyre probably going to start cannibalizing it for parts. They are trying upon equipment and putting it into ukraine. From the ukraine soldiers perspective adc russia as someone who cant draw of unlimited kind of armor to put against it but again is not going to be as effective. With respect to the missile question, russia has plowed through some of its best precision strike munitions. Theyre trying to take different approaches to overcome that. Repurposing air defense missiles and a land attack roll the lose a lot of accuracy switches the is even more Collateral Damage on unintended targets. You also see the russians dipping into the at the ship Cruise Missile inventory. That was a large stockpile, several thousand that are conventional and have pretty decent precision. Position. Theyre going into that already. Where it has been large and we see a big difference is an russian tactical aviation. Their Fighter Aircraft are really, really low on tactical short range precision munitions. What you end up seeing as russian fighters flying very low to the ground firing off unguided rockets and banking out of there to try to avoid ukraine air defenses. This should of an russian airpower should have been a huge advantage for russia in ukraine and are not able to make it happen. Bottom line a lot of challenges, muddling through but theyre putting, the russians are putting down markers that this is not over for them. They might have to extend their timelines, their objectives, but larger objectives remain unchanged. I, however, remain pretty pessimistic that the going to ever be able to achieve a larger objective for half the ukraine or kyiv, all of that even in the longterm, five to ten years out i can would be too much to ask. Super helpful. To follow up an obvious question is whats the best they can do given all of the constraints you just outlined . Can they take up to the in what you know about both sides can whats the best russia can do . What they think they can do is annex Kherson Oblast and my view is a going to try exit into russia so that that will force sort of a shocked system, and that would impact the west willingness or desire to continue ukraine at current levels. Thats what they think they will do. I see a lot of challenges for them right now, ticket with the defensive in cursive. Theres a lot of mobile Russian Troops on the wrong side of the river. The bridges are blown. They are ferrying them across dozens of vehicles at a time ferrying them across the river. Sometimes i wonder if i minute general staff wargame simulation. How did he get to this point for them . I do think that would be a challenge. They do not possess just yesterday they announced they were going to delay the referendum in kherson from september to november because the security situation is so poor. So to me thats what victory looks like in the near term for ukraine. Pushing it back, delaying the process, preventing them from feeling like they have a solidified wonderful, wonderful. Vivian we have talked a lot about the Nuclear Power plant in zaporizhzhia. Theres a couple of things that stand out. The russians keep trying to disconnected. And to get very close to scary situations with a dont have very much fuel to cool down the nuclear reactors. And the russians were also very oddly willing to cooperate with the International Community. What you make of all of this . The russians like to demonstrate that they are cooperating with the International Community because they dont want to have sort of that hanging over their heads, even though a lot of it is very superficial. We saw even with some of the hostage negotiations and things like that with the u. N. Had taken a role. They were open to that just because they do like to show even superficially that there were cooperating. So the iaea team were able to access the clip we are actually waiting for everything from them today to find out what their assessment is so that we could know the exact situation but obviously its a very dire, very serious situation there where you have fighting near any Nuclear Plant. They were near chernobyl ezell earlier this you but chernobyl is not anywhere near as critical as the zaporizhzhia power plant. Theres a lot of concern about any kind of damage, any kind of fighting near a Nuclear Power plant is something that is considered a very serious situation. Theoretically the russians also know that even though they would be happy to foment any kind of chaos to tip the scales in your favor. They do appear to understand that any kind of damage to Nuclear Plant would not bode well for their efforts as well. We even saw it in chernobyl earlier this year where they allowed the ukraine in specialist to stay there basically as hostages but allow them to stay there because they recognize they couldnt operate the plant on their own and did not want anything to go wrong. So there is a sense the russians do recognize the stakes, albeit theyre going to blame the ukrainians for being the ones to cause the destruction around the plant which is pretty laughable. And so thats sort of where we stand now. It will be interesting to see what the iaea teams come out with following their visit this week, but the situation is pretty dire and whether or not the plant can stay online, that is a big concern. Its a down to the sort of its last legs as far as operation goes. The impact of that could be really critical. Not just for ukraine but the whole of europe and so thats why theyre so much concern across the continent about the outcome, the situation of the security of that plant. Wonderful. Max i want to trade you for a couple people ask a bunch of comments about congress. You are so clear on this. Could you please explain why ukraine is, supportive ukraine is in Americas National interest . Its 5000 miles away and win big midterm elections coming up soon. Do you expect support for ukraine to remain strong after these elections . What do you think . There some polling the shows are some serious differences when it comes to the sport. Bob mccullough put a bunch of republicans vote against the 40 billion bill so tell us we think things are going politically. To answer the first part first i agree, the u. S. Has a massive stake in the outcome of the war, which can be boiled down to do we want to live in a world which is where the rule of law governed are what you want to live according to the law of the jungle . That is basically what were talking about. As of the very the post1945 war and europe that putin is on the money, attacking notches ukraine piggies attacking the very principle that borders will not be changed by force and that nations can be free from aggression from their neighbors. And so if we allow going to get away with what hes doing integrate will not only how to be a terrible tragic for ukraine and were seeing the russians are committing horrific war crimes all over the country, its a humanitarian tragedy and nightmare the likes of which europe has not seen since world war ii. But be on debt the horrible tragedy for the people of ukraine. This would be a tragedy for the people of europe especially for Eastern European states which are next going to be an russias sites. Hes not going to be satisfied with taking ukraine as part of this project of resurrecting the russian soviet empire. A lot of countries and currently so many of these people are of the soviet empire which are going to be in putins crosshairs if he went and ukraine, which is not going to do. If you were and he would also send horrible message to countries like china which are contemplating their own attack on taiwan which is a war that could drag u. S. Into world war iii. Put can get away with what hes doing and ukraine i could go get a signal to china they can get away with anything they wanted in taiwan. Conversely it would show no, the entire civilized world the west is united in stopping russia that it will be defeated. I think that will send a very positive message that aggression is not favor the rule of law still means something and that there is still the unity and coherence in the west to stand up for our shared trays of manic ideals. So the stakes could not possibly be higher. This is probably the most consequential conflict since 1945 and really the future shape of europe is being determined on the battlefields of ukraine right now. The ukrainians are fighting and dying for the police and ideals that all of us in the transatlantic have. In terms of what is going to be impact of midterms and how does the Republican Party stand, i have some concerns because right now the support has been very bipartisan. I think there is a democratic republican consensus pick you seen the giant aid bills providing far more support among the anybody else. They had not been controversial. Congress has actually put more money and an abiding administration ask for but there is that prorussia caucus and the two most important and influential leaders on the right in america are basically proputin. By that i i mean donald trump and tucker carlson. They are both spreading proputin prorussia propaganda, tucker in particular and he is the most watched cable host in america. And there is that kind of ultra maga caucus thats in the Republican Party that for whatever reason you can debate why but they love putin, they think hes a a champion of christianity and one civilization, and there are also isolationist severe post to america 80 our allies. Thats kind of another subset of republicans were not isolationists that are so focused on taiwan and china that they think we should be doing anything that would detract from china and taiwan. Missing the big picture can which like the best thing we can do is say save taiwan, save ukraine and make russia pay a massive price for its aggression. So im so far everything is been pretty much kumbaya in congress. Everybody almost anybody aside from the hardcore ultra maga wing especially house of representatives Republican Congress but unconcerned about what happens after november particularly if republicans take over the house, if the maga caucus grows that will put more pressure and Kevin Mccarthy not to provide aid to ukraine. One thing that we know that Kevin Mccarthy is he is very weak, he is cowardly. He refused to stand up to trump and his maga caucus. And so if trump and his crew apply enough pressure this could come off boards which i think its incredibly important for congress to approve another large aid bill to ukraine before the new congress is seated. Right now its going to be the optimal time for find bipartisan support for ukraines struggle for freedom. Great point. My friends come with 16 16 m. We have 74 questions. We are going to do this. I would ask you to unmute or so and going to direct the question at you and youll be so short and sweet. Youre going to all get a plusses. Try to im scared. Two senses. What to expect the russians to do this winter . Should we expect attacks on Critical Infrastructure in heating facilities or are you expecting Something Else . We should expect that yes. Theres a very high rate they will do that and it will. Also we should expect them to do massive information in the war in europe by developing their strategic and using that persuasion from the price and so on. We have to resist this by all means. Super. General breedlove jubilate ukraine might receive f16 from either u. S. Or another ally . Not in the short term. We need to get started now. Training and doing the things that will enable ukraine to move into a fourth and fifth Generation Air force. For that matter all their combined arms business. We want ukraine to be a great combined arms military. Super thank you. Im not sure who wants national please regime. What was the rational fronting the counter offensive networks no military experts as the ukraines had enough equipment in order to be successful. Who wants that . I think that we just need to do this as soon as we can because simply there is the time doesnt work for ukraine. As soon as we have the capacity to put russians out of ukraine territory we should use. Im not saying we should hurry. No way im saying we should do it at any cost. Should be really careful but if there is an opportunity we need to use it because basically its important for us. Dara, this is for you. You mention russia is going to stock up at the ship missiles. Gmen for land targets . Can you clarify . Antiship Cruise Missiles are primarily for sea targets but theyre taking them and turning them around and find them backwards onto the land. That taking existing stock repurchasing the targeting. Thank you. A plus. Vivian the Nuclear Plant do you see any merit to the argument putin is semisuicidal using the possibly to black build the web . In the iaea visit becomes the estimate of this. Russias cooperation with the visit. What do you make of that from john wise . Honestly if i could read Vladimir Putins might i would be a wealthy woman so i will rely on experts here who all said they dont believe he is suicidal or trying that. Vladimir putin oldham has only one ukraine in his orbit and is trying to use whatever tools he can whether or not he would actually do do something to the power plant to the worstcase scenario, i find a really hard to believe but also found heartedly he would go after kyiv in the first place and here we are. I do not think that would be the ultimate goal. I think you would love to use as a threat but not an actual tactic. Whether or not he does when it remains to be seen. Super thanks. Max question for you. Are we doing enough to develop parts of her own Defense Industry that takes into account longterm demand from the ukrainian war . General wesley clark says no. What are your views . We need to ramp up production. We need to be less conservative in our estimate of what we need for stockpiles because theres a tendency to be conservative and the pentagon is it a we cand all these munitions. We need them ourselves. The reality is we are not going to be using, not going to be attacking somebody with himars anytime soon. We need to push everything we can to the ukraine is now and build more to back fill the stockpiles and thats what we ought to be doing. General breedlove i see your fingers and want to ask you. Go ahead and i will ask you. Just to add to what max just said. Not only do we need to think about our stockpiles but we need to think about our capacity. The way that we find defense spending for things like weapons fund at the minimalist approach and theres no extra. If you want to have the ability to expand, we need to signal to the industry that we need more and we need to find or create funding streams that allow industry to buy that excess capacity. Super. Heres your question. How likely is it the Russian Military will simply collapsed as an effective fighting force this winter . What your ratio . I think theyre going to last a lot longer in winter because what we would havent talked about is people always talk about this long war. I believe right now russia is focus on the winter because they need to separate the european people from european governments. And so they need to make european people called and have no seating and or and noo that they will then ring pressure against their governments. I think a part of what you see by russian out there right now is giving up and losing a lot of capability to hold on to winter to try to win this in a political sense. Thank you so much for bringing that in. Theres an article that suggests meteorologists or singer looks like its going to be a warm winter. Maybe a little tougher. Although ukrainians are warning it would be a cold winter in ukraines im not sure who to believe. The ukraines our single out and buy long, long underwear and get ready. We will see. Lets see, next question. Could russia defeat the counter by falling back and flanking them and they are exposed . Well, we certainly can say that we know exactly which capabilities they have. We know how many, people and so once i dont think they can do things like super unexpected to us. So the short answer is no. I dont think they can do any type maneuvers of that and really expect us to sort of to be trapped or anything. Thank you. Vivian how effective are the russians bennett shooting down himars rockets are jamming their signal . Not the himars. The himars have been extremely effective so far as far as russians kind of countering it. As far as the learning curve for the ukrainians, theres deathly a learning curve. One of the things i kept hearing on the front lines is a lot of these frontline soldiers, they hear the himars are coming and very encouraging bit of information but they have never used western equipment before. Most of these guys never touched anything but soviet era equipment so the whole idea of a midwar zaporizhzhia to some sophisticate you a systems were talking to them when theyre in the middle of this intense battle, special with himars the required weeks of training. Thats the challenge on ukraine sets of russian so far seem to have been alluded by the himars but also keep in mind that are not that many on the ground yet. The targets are few and the ukrainians have been good at disguising the himars when youre not in use. As far as we have heard nothing so far but that doesnt mean they wont figure it out when there are more himars on the ground. Thanks so much. General breedlove can you get into putins mine for a minute . Is it accurate to say if the russians cant conquer ukraine the areas they outline the want that they will do the method on kyiv . Why have they taken zelensky out and why havent they done to kyiv what the did the merry opal . Theres a difference between merry opal which is very close to their lines, very easy to get to and as we saw the world is not paying attention to ukraines who did a magnificent job of building a defensive depth north of trent in making much tougher to take than that flatter land and access by the sea in the south. Frankly i dont think the have the force right now to even think about kyiv. They are struggling to do what they want to do in the south so i think that theyve learned their lessons in kyiv. Some call it an operational loss. Some call it a strategic loss. In either case it had a huge impact on russia and its military capabilities your i dont see kyiv on the table ever. Thank you get one more question for you. How optimistic is it that even with more u. S. Made weapons say 60 himars ukraine can retake all the territory occupied since fibber 24th in a reasonable period of time . It would take more than just the himars. I mean, and part of the problem here is the ukrainians have proven as wrong over and over. They can assimilate high in Technology Rather quickly highend. We need to start somewhere preparing them for the ability to retake that land. Can we do in the next month or two . Maybe not but we can make a huge impact on this counter offensive if we take the policy decision now to give them the right kit at the right place at the right time in order to affect this counter offensive. [inaudible] ive heard that a few times. I like that. Max question for you. How can you claim the ukrainians have already won . Could this we can resolve and help from the outside if this is repeated again and again . A challenge to you. Go ahead, max. They won because i think nobody really thinks the russians are going to roll to kyiv any time in the foreseeable future and death ukrainians have much greater resiliency and strength than anybody expected, and the russians have proven much less militarily effective that i think people expected. So at this point i think it is the case that putin probably holds hope that at some point in future they will abandon ukraine and eventually he will be able to bludgeon the ukrainians down and you will be able to march into odessa, cut them off from the black sea. These are probably some of the dream act and dreams putin holds but i dont think theres an realistic prospect that they will achieve that. I think its still under threat and still fighting but its viability as a state is not even in question right now. Super thank you. Tell us about the impact of weapons been provided to ukraine by other states other than the u. S. Being super helpful from poland, france, germany, from estonia, slovakia, go ahead. Every nation which supplies even a small dasher im a huge believer of the Critical Mass concept that a think we will be able, we were able to change the dynamic of the war after we reached a certain number of equipment, and so currently there are countries which is contributing to this. Theres been a collective. So in a way its like crowdsourcing, crowdfunding mission. Any input is great. Even when there are some nations which are run out of their own equipment so they end up providing funding. And then there are some nations which are crowdsourcing with their own people and then they go and buy like, for example, [inaudible] exited. There are different ways which people injured and other countries are doing in order to help us in this is amazing for but also right now theres a new challenge coming that a sustaining the capability. Theres a question about how to we repair equipment, how do we service and so on. There are some countries which are helping with this and yeah, so thats basically a new phase of this equipment aboard essential. Theres a great paper in think tank in london put out about all the systems. Dara, beyond kherson, what you think the priority will be in the next couple of weeks, this fall . I think theyve been a really good job of attacking behind the lines going into crimea i think was completely unexpected for the russians. They were not prepared for the outcome. It took them a few weeks to cover for that at a think there strangler now they have more air defense going over the critical facilities. Unexpected uses of weapons is also having an impact. The ukrainians are using missiles and putting it in aircraft and using them to target russian air defenses. There is a mass problem on the ukrainian side of the big large armored counter defensive but these attacks in targeted areas are being really effective. I think they should continue along those lines. General breedlove can you please help us. Tell us a bit about ukraines this board capability, how is ukraine trying to ensure error r cover, if any . Well, you missed a great conversation this morning about their denial, which is what ukraine has done magnificently. Its a new term so the have thought it in that way but they have given russia fits and being effective with their airpower over ukraine. So we would want that to continue. If youre following the number of sorties flown by the ukraine air source, it is surge in the last several days. Much higher than say three weeks ago. So they are trying now to tie that airpower to the ground maneuver. That is combined arms warfare that we have seen out of the russians. And so i believe that we see a growing understanding and capability of what that combined arms attack with their supporting the ground means to this war, and hope to see much more of that from the Ukrainian Air force. Wonderful. General breedlove there was another question for you. Can you give us the best arguments for why we should give weapons to ukraine . Why we should give aid . What are the most winning argument . I think max sits on the most important things in the beginning. First of all they are fighting for values just like our values. We all do not believe that russia can take its military force and cross internationally recognized borders at will and change the map of europe, and thats what theyve done twice in ukraine and once in georgia since 2008 and we dont stand for that. Ukraine is a huge, important to the world and to our economies. We used a flat every rocket shot we ever flew on a ukrainian motor. We had motor seats putting out some of the best motors out there and thats why china is trying to buy motor seats. This is a country, people dont understand how important ukraine is to the world. Not only the west. Youd have to look very much farther than the green to see what it means to the southern half of the world. Theres a list too long to cover. But ukraine is important not only to us but to the entire world. Thank you so much for unfortunately we did not make it. I ate them are questions we have to get you. Thank you so much of general breedlove, dara, vivian, max and the great andriy zagorodnyuk. If you do not follow them on twitter get on twitter now. Theyre all on twitter for active and ellen interesting opinions and i learned so much today from all of you. Thank you for your reporting. Thank you for your analysis. Thank you for sharing your time. Lets at the request of the united states, the United Nations meets to discuss the forced displacement of ukrainians from their homes due to rushers invasion of the country. You can also watch on our free mobile video app, cspan now, or online at cspan. Org. Cspan is your unfiltered view of government. We are funded by these Television Companies and more, including comcast. You think this is just a Community Center . No, its way more than that. Comcast is partnering with 1000 Community Centers so students and low income families can get the tools they need for anything. Comcast supports cspan as a Public Service along with these other television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. Up next, we hear from Outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his successor liz truss, followed by President Biden meeting with his cabinet at the white house and later, the white house covid19 Response Team gives an update on the distribution of new vaccines for the fall. Outgoing british Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged conservative Party Members to end the politics and support the new incoming leader liz truss. In his Farewell Speech she touted his partys accomplishment including low unemployment and handling the coronavirus. The Prime Minister announced his resignation in july after controversy over parties at 10 downing street during the covid19 restrictions. [applause] mr. Johnson thank you. Well, this is p. M. Johnson thank you. Well, this is it, folks. Thank you, everybody for coming out so early this morning. And only a couple of hours i will be in to see her majesty the queen, and the torch will
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