Thank you all for being here i hope everybody can hear me. Its a really fascinating midterm as we have been discussing. Tant race of the races being held around the country are the ones for control of the senate. That is the ballgame and washington anyways. The chances are good that republicans can take the house but whoever controls the senate goes a long way in determining who controls the agenda. That is whats on the table right now, is literally a 5050 senate, democrats are only in control because Vice President harris can cast the die deciding vote in a tie. There are perhaps eight to 11 swing senate races and most of those are too close to call right now so it is a fascinating and complex picture and we are joined by one of the nations top analysts. Scott reed is somebody that ive known for 2530 years, he poured, most of portly for this audience was the Campaign Manager for bob doles campaign, and he has been a recognized figure for some time in a long time member. He was chief of staff to secretary jack kemp, and later he became chairman of the Chesapeake Enterprises owned and served for the chamber of commerce. Thank you for joining us. Chair behnam thank you for having me. Jerry they usually gain seats, they gain from a president from with a low approval rating. Democrats seem to have shifted the momentum. Now thomas things now, things seem to be taking a direction. Its a very close race, and our latest news poll shows you just how tight this race is in the swing states. Right now it is from our polls, 47 for the democrats in the United States. How is this different from other Midterm Elections . I want to say again, thank you for having me. This facility has become a very beautiful place. You are bright, this summer changed a lot. The dogs, Supreme Court decision came out in the summer and it looked like it would be real trouble for the republicans and then in august we had the trunk maralago race which put aside what is happening from a political standpoint, that little re literally dominated the news for seven days. Everyone was talking about trout. Those two things, by labor day i was starting to think that this was going to be this was going to be complicated. These Midterm Elections are traditionally a referendum on the president. He is either doing a good job or bad job. There are two fundamental pulling figures that we look at to judge that to try to understand what will happen. One is the president s approval. It is that about 43 today. Traditionally, if a president is under 50 in the Midterm Election he will lose a bunch of house seat. How that translates we will talk about that as we go on. The other is the generic number, and this has been tied 47 , 47 , by the way, voting has started and 8 Million People have already voted around the country, it will be up to nine tomorrow. If republicans go into the weekend with a tied generic, it will do well. I seen some polls with we need to be down five, four republicans to do well in the election. I think that they are on track to do well in the election because of the environment around the president. He is the decider, right now. There is some evidence that in this midterm there has been some separation between peoples views and we have seen in our polls that the president will stay flat and democrats rise. Is this different in that it may not be steered by the president. I do not think its different, the indicator i have seen is where the president is spending his time. Usually the president is out campaigning aggressively to the targeted races. Two weeks ago he was in california and oregon. Democrat strongholds. Last week he went to pennsylvania for one day for federman. He spent the weekend in that major swing state delaware, nothing going on there. My home state. And then this week hes going for fetterman. Obama is going for fetterman later as well. He is not in any of the battleground states trying to fight for numbers. I know that obama is popular with people, but i think that politics are about the future. I think it will get a nice headlight that he was there but i dont think it moves votes. This is a tough election because the country is so polarized, there is only a sliver of voters who are not in their red shirts or blue shirts, the shirt or the skins, you are trying to win the news day every day. You have your advertising going on, youre trying to drive a message. You need to win the day to get to the end here. And i dont see a lot of democrats doing that right now. They are getting no help from the president. President byington misses biden is the number one surrogate right now. We were talking about 1994 when republicans took control of the house, you were on the rnc when that happened as chair. That happened partly because Newt Gingrich gave republicans a agenda to run on and governing, have republicans made a mistake not doing that until later on. In other words had they not given a reason to vote against democrats . That has been the split in the party the cycle, Mitch Mcconnell doesnt believe we need an agenda, he believes its about the president and the referendum on the president. Whereas, Kevin Mccarthy who i believe will be the next speaker and leader of the republicans in the house has come out with his commitment to america. If you are a house member running, i like having a commitment to america list of 10 or 12 things to talk about. I think it brings message discipline to your campaign. These are conservative, right of center ideas. I think it can help. But the senate and house races are different because the house seems to get caught up in a big wave of whats going on nationally. The senate races are more like one offs although they are influenced by the national scene, the money in the senate races now is astronomical. It changed everything. If you announce you are running for the senate in any state, new hampshire, delaware, texas, kansas, the day that you announce is the best day of your life. After that, all of this money pours in from outside groups, defining new, saying things about you that you didnt know yourself. The senate races have taken on a life of their own. I have noticed that the democrats have done a better job of raising money in the senate races. The last two quarters the average Competitive Senate race, democrats are raising 2520 5 million, republicans have made that up with the super pac mcconnell. But the disparity israel. Democrats do but the disparity is real. Democrats have been doing better. A lot of democrats are not talking about running alongside joe biden for the most part. I dont see that changing. We used to kid around, he didnt take us up on that. This is what happens in the Midterm Election, it happens to every president. The only president who is unwell in a Midterm Election in the last 50 years was george w. Bush which was in 2002 after 9 11 when the country was really unified and didnt want to change course. It split every other president. Clinton takes a shellacking, obama took a big shellacking. I want to go through individual swing states and a second, but before we do that id want to ask you about the other big national figure, not joe biden, thats trump. Is trump a bigger issue this year for democratic or Republican Voters . I think he is both, believe it or not. We know that he motivates, when he put hands on candidates most of them went. But he is a bogeyman for the democrats to raise money against. There was a pole in the New York Times which i do not always quote, but it was interesting. The top issue was economy, a couple of weeks ago and the number two issue was saving democracy. Ive never seen that as a question in a poll. Crime, the board are all of that. But i think that trump has had an impact on both parties, probably more on the republik inside he has endorsed 300 candidates this time. Probably 280 of them will win and he will take credit for the sun coming up and the tide being in place and all of these candidates winning. He cant help himself. He is the only reason that saving democracy is on that list. 100 . Lets look at key races, as you said these are influenced by the National Environment but not dictated by the National Environment. There is a series of seven or eight close ones. Lets walk through one by one, events your impression and as you do this im going to have this display up here starting with arizona. The real clear politics pulling averages for these polling places. These averages are for the statewide polls over the last year or so. With the most recent being the blue and red lines. Arizona, blake masters, a republican candidate against incumbent senator mark kelly, it looks close. How do you read that one . This is probably one of the more interesting races, this is mccains a seat that kelly one last time, its the first time hes running for a six year term. Doug ducey is a very popular governor, if he chose to run he wouldve walked into this rate and walked away from the race. He didnt run because of trump. He didnt want to deal with trump because he is not an election denier. Trump came in and endorsed blake masters. He is a nonpolitician, i believe its healthy to have nonpoliticians run once in a while. He worked for peter to, a very peter to peter theil, a venture capitalist. He made some trump in comments that he wouldnt support mcconnell for leader. Thats why you see money go in and come back out and then go back in. An interesting race in arizona is the governors race. An open race. The lady running, the republican, is very interesting, she is a tv personality. Shes gone full trump. She is trump and a skirt and i say that as i complement. She is probably going to win and shes leading the ballot out there. I think shes going to help masters win. If republicans win this one i think its going to be an easy race. Because it will tell you the way the winds going. It will tell you where were going. The second when i went to talk about is nevada. This is taking me by surprise a little bit. The incumbent, Catherine Cortez masto, i am surprised by her weakness and her opponents strength. An amazing fellow, a friend of doles, he ran for an attorney general and he lost, hes running against the incumbent here. The interesting thing happening in nevada is clark county is the sheriff, sheriffs are powerful in certain places. This is a situation where the governors race will help the senate race, because he will turn out votes, and they will win statewide. The patino boat is always big in nevada. Like everyone they are voting with their pocketbooks. Their pocketbooks are not great. This will be the first one that comes in Election Night for republicans. Why is she weak . I think all of these incumbent democrats that are running although fine and has accomplished a number of things in congress and he has since hes been president none of that has transferred to any of the candidate, incumbent senators. The white house passes a bill, they have a signing center maroney signing ceremony. No one talks about it we used to talk for a couple of weeks but there is nothing to attach to. You cant attach an name, who has run before and matured as a candidate, hes a sharp young man and i think this is going to be a pickup. The pickup of republican strength among hispanic voters is part of the reason white it is the way it is right now why it is the way it is right now. Thats true of texas as well. Hispanic voters usually hope for Economic Issues and that is dominating right now whereas these other issues and other states like the east coast, let crime, here it is the economy. You dont think of nevada as a and they are service workingclass voters, not hardhat workingclass voters. And unions are not behind ccm. Lets move on to pennsylvania, a fascinating race and fascinating state, because the big debate between the republican, maam it awes the republican, dr. Oz, and the democrat, John Fetterman, you start with John Fetterman having a stroke about the time he was nominated to run , and the sort of in and out of dr. Oz, the question of whether he istrumpian or not, federman is leading, i have doubts about that after the debate, but what do you think . This is the one to watch on Election Night, because of republicans are able to win this one, they are on the way to winning the majority. There are 21 republicans running this time and 14 democrats read of the 21, 6 of them are open seats like this, which means you have to nominate a candidate and then run in the general election. This is one of the states trump got involved in and put the hands on mehmet oz, a tv, firsttime candidate, lived in new jersey, just moved to pennsylvania. But he has been steadily coming on. He had a very tight primary that he won by 980 votes. He never really united the Republican Party his candidacy like he needed to after you win a closed primary, so he dropped out in the polls. He has now united the republicans. This is a serious bait. This was a serious debate. If you did not watch it, it was pretty bad. This poor guy had a heart attack and they should have never put him in a debate. John fetterman. The democrat. He is Lieutenant Governor right now. He is quite a character, 67, shaved head, tattoos on the arms, wears a hoodie, and he is a selfdescribed socialist. He says that. But the debate last night did not help fetterman. No voters decided they were going to vote for him after last night. I think you are going to see this trend. The other thing, crime is a huge issue in philadelphia, d. C. , baltimore. The secret to winning a campaign in pennsylvania, pennsylvania is kind of a weird state. It is a little midwestern, a little appalachian, the city of philly, pittsburgh, very urban. And the middle is alabama. To win republican, we call it the t, you win the middle and across the top. If you survive philadelphia and pittsburgh, you are going to win. Federman as Lieutenant Governor was big on letting everybody go, and that has come back to bite him. That, combined with the campaign problems, i think this is the sigel most important race. What factors that seem to be working but there are factors that seem to still be working in fettermans favor. One is abortion. It came up in the debate last night. There is kind of a generic abortion issue in every of these races in which prochoice independence, in many cases independent women, may be motivated to show up for that issue, even if that is that issue alone, a, and b, the governors race cuts against the republican candidate because the republican nominee for governors so weak and controversial. Scott this is the one difference from my theory on multithe senate races. Republicans will get lucky will be lucky to get more than 30 of the vote. Abortion is an issue with some voters. Before the Supreme Court ruling, it was about 4 in the polls as the most important issue. Over the summer, as it became more and more debated, it went up to 16 , 18 . We are seeing some polls that it is going down now. Independent women are the swing vote that you look at and target your campaign on. What is happening in pennsylvania is the crime issue. It is overshadowing all that. And you will when you watch the local news in philadelphia, you would be appalled by the first 15 minutes. It is like this in a lot of cities right now, but i think that is overshadowing it. In the economic issue . Scott the economic issue is still up there, but that brought oz back against fetterman because of his role in the parole board. You cannot run on that. The other race which you have to be captivated by is the Georgia Senate race. Senator raphael warnock, the incumbent democrat who has only been in office for two years, against Herschel Walker. I dont need to introduce Herschel Walker to anybody. This is one we warnock has had the lead, but it has been very narrow. To the surprise of some people, including me, all of the Herschel Walker controversies of the last three weeks do not seem to have changed the dynamic much. How do you read that . Scott you remember georgia in 2020, the state where we had the two runoffs after the election, and republicans lost them vote because trump told republicans dont vote for these people, and it cost them the senate. This race is surprising me too. Walker, after all he has been through in the last three or four weeks another big bombshell story today about him it is still almost tied. I think, in this case, the vote for walker is more of a vote against biden. That is the signal. What else could it be, by the way . What else could it possibly be . How can you explain it . The other thing in georgia, the republican governor, running for reelection, is winning big. I think he is going to carry it. Georgia has a weird rule that if you dont get 50 , the general goes to a runoff. This looks like it is going to go to a runoff. The good news is the runoff is only 30 days later as opposed to 60. The libertarian running is getting three or four points right now. That comes out of walker. This will probably get away runoff. Kemp will have won governor. They will put the whole machine behind walker. They already are, but then the whole machine will be behind him. I think trump did the right thing since he picked Herschel Walker as a candidate. I think this will be a victory. Gerald the georgia race is Something Else we have talked about, the intense polarization of the country. Which is to say that people are very firmly either in the republican camp or my credit camp or democratic camp. They put on a blue jersey or red jersey and fight for their team, it cases in many cases. It appears in georgia they will look past all kinds of candidate flaws and character flaws because that guy is on my team and thats all i need to know. Is that a fair description of where a lot of voters are, or is it different from what you have seen in years past . Scott it is different, and i think it has taken over the georgia race, because there is no other way to describe why walker is still pulling within the margin of error. I think this one is a flat out referendum on biden, a referendum on republicans controlling the senate. At has been a lot of the message too. The combination of those two is why he is hanging on as well as he is. Gerald because he is a reliable r vote in the senate. Scott and regardless of his personal life and touchdowns and all that, he is going to vote 100 right when he gets there. That is what they are advertising, and i think it is working. Gerald i am shocked. This is a shocker. Lets go to north carolina, one that has not gotten as much attention, but it will it is a state that is still trending red, but it is less red than it used be. Democrats have thought it might be the sleeper race for them, ted budd, the republican, against sherry beasley, the democrat. It is an open seat. There is no incumbent running. Is this a chance for democrats or not . Scott i thought over the summer it could have been. He is a trump guy, but not a crazy trump guy, but he has not raised any money. Here you have one of the key states like north carolina, on labor day, the Budd Campaign was not even on the air. Unheard of. Every candidate goes on the air on labor day in every state, even in kansas. This surprised me because i thought it would become a race. Beasley has not come out of the blocks very well, the democrat running, and i think budd is a winner. Just the flow of gerald does the flow of money into the state suggest other people are drawing that conclusion as well . Scott mcconnell has put 30 million or 35 million into this race. Gerald he recognizes they are not going to run a competent campaign, so if anybody owes a debt to him after election day, it is ted budd. Scott they have raised half a billion dollars, and they have come in and rescued a bunch of these campaigns, and he is going to get a lot of credit. They have been very smart where they have spent their money. They are not chasing rainbows, they are putting the lead on the target, where they need to. Gerald what is that going to do to the trumpmcconnell relationship afterwards . Is trump going to give mcconnell any credit afterward . Scott i think when trump called mcconnell an old crow, that was kind of the end of the relationship, and i dont think that is going to be repairable. Mcconnell is a pro. There is a reason he is the longest serving Senate Leader in history. He does not want to run for president. He wants to be the Senate Leader. And he is and probably will be until he passes away. He runs it with an iron fist. The trumpmcconnell relationship was gone and january 6 that has never come back. Was gone on january 6 and has never, back. Never come back. Gerald lets go to wisconsin, which has become a string state swing state drifting more republican. It has ron johnson running against the fairly brand is the fairly progressive democrat mandela barnes. It looks a little less as if johnson is in trouble now. How do you read it . Scott ron johnson is an incumbent two term businessman, totally new to politics when he first ran. Ran on a two term limit. Changed his mind and decided to run again because he was liking it so much. But this is the most concerning race for us of all the incumbents all year. He is a methodical campaigner. He raises the money. His opponent as a Lieutenant Governor, and he has been drilling him on being out of touch with wisconsin. The polls have shown it. Ron johnson was down consistently. He crossed right after labor day and his on his way to winning. This was the most concerning race all year long. Gerald what is the factor that accounts for the lines crossing . What happened in wisconsin . Scott i think republicans started to come home. Independents heard the starting gun go off on labor day and started looking at how they were going to vote, and they want to send a signal to the president. This is another referendum on President Biden. It is a governors race in wisconsin. It is very tight. There is a trump guy running as a gubernatorial candidate and it is within the margin of error. Ron johnson is going to lead there and win. Gerald and maybe pulled the governor along. That is within the margin of error. Lets turn to one that i have been fascinated by for a year and a half, ohio, where you have it is an open seat, no incumbent j. D. Vance, who has turned into a very trumpian republican nominee, against congressman tim ryan, a workingclass democrat from youngstown who is trying to model a different kind of nonprogressive democratic candidacy, and who has separated himself clearly from President Biden. I thought for a while that tim ryan might be the one guy that could pull off a statewide victory in ohio. Maybe he can. You look at these numbers and know it is a tough uphill battle for him. Could tim ryan pull off this . Scott tim ryan is a very impressive man, a moderate democrat. He goes on fox. He is not afraid to talk to conservatives. He is very impressive. He ran for president , did not do well, took on the senate race. This is one that was concerning because there was a big republican primary and trump decided to get behind j. D. Vance. A lot of us have read his book. If you have not read it, it is interesting, the hillbilly book. He is a firsttime candidate, not a great candidate, not a lot of enthusiasm, does not work super hard, does not campaign a lot, and this has been tight for a while. He seems to have turned the corner in debates. Vance has not raised a lot of money. Mcconnell has had to spend about 30 million to prop up his candidacy. Another example, the governor, mike dewine, is winning by 16 points over his opponent. I think the wine is going to help pull vance in. I think ohio is a red state, and this is the final nail in that coffin. But ryan is a very impressive candidate and we were concerned. Gerald as an aside, if tim ryan does not win this race he is a very impressive democrat, as you say there is no place for him to go from here, i would think. Scott well, he has been in the house 16 or 18 years, so he is probably looking to start a new career. Gerald exactly. There are a few others that are not on my greatest hits list. Lets run through those quickly. We should mention kansas. There is a senate race here. I did not highlight it because it is not much of a race by most accounts. Jerry moran, the incumbent republican, is running against the former mayor of kansas city, kansas. It does not seem like gary moran has much to worry about. Scott we dont need to talk about that. Im kidding. I am proud of moran as a senator. He does a good job in washington. He is a conservative, but he tries to bring democrats together to get things done. He does not appear to have a race. He has had a great career and i think he is going to have a huge future as a leader. Gerald here is a state i did not think we would be talking about in terms of senate races, colorado. I assume michael bennet, the democratic incumbent, is safe. It seems like it is his kind of state. He is a good candidate for colorado. Yet hes got a raise, running against republican businessman joe day. It is tighter than i would expect. Are you surprised . Scott there is always one race in every cycle that the experts in washington mess, and i think this time it is colorado. Republicans are running a moderate business guy, joe day, i can say against an incumbent senator where nobody knows what he has done. He is a very nice fellow, but he has not done a lot. This is a state biden won by five points. Ok is not a trapper. He stood up to trump in a debate and then trump cracked on him the next day and called him a rino. This could be a surprise on Election Night. This guy has run a down the middle campaign which appeals to everybody. You may remember President Biden went to colorado and did an event for bennett, but it was a National Park event. It was not a political event. It was not about the economy or inflation or gas, it was about getting a bunch of acres to and it was kind of a weird deal. I the key headache commitment i think he had a commitment, but they chose not to go to denver, which is where you would normally go for an event to getting a lot of attention. It goes back to my earlier theme, that it is hard to find places for biden to go to campaign. I dont think a single republican incumbent is going to lose on Election Night in the senate. Murkowski in alaska is one because they got ranked choice voting, which is complicated. Grassley in iowa, grassley is 89, but it looks like he is going to win. And youve got the mike lee situation in utah, where there is an independent and democrat running against him, but i think he will still win. To me, those are the three we are going to watch Election Night. One of those three could drop and then the whole map gets scrambled. Gerald but if democrats lose an incumbent in colorado, i cant imagine how you put the math together to control the senate. Scott if we get colorado, it is over. The three were to watch our pennsylvania, nevada, and georgia. Whoever wins two of those three will be the majority, no matter if georgia goes to a runoff and even if the republicans laws, they will still be a majority. Gerald lets talk about a couple of outliers that could be interesting. Washington senator patty murray is running against republican Tiffany Smiley, a great name for a candidate. Shes got a race on her hands too, apparently. Scott Tiffany Smiley is an attractive, smart young lady that is taking it to her. Her opponent has been there for five years. She was the grandma and sneakers when she won the first time, so now she is a super grandma. The polls have consistently had smiley down about six. I think she raised about 10 million last quarter, which is an incredible amount for a race against an incumbent senator. She is really great. You will see her on fox tonight. She is on almost every night doing a show. But the polls have not closed yet, and that concerns me. Florida, i thought at one point Marco Rubio Might have a real challenge on his hands, and he probably does, because congresswoman val demings, the democratic opponent, i think its a very strong, attractive candidate, kind of the moderate africanamerican woman. Gerald former police chief, so she does not have the crime problems. Scott right. What is your analysis . Like she is an impressive democratic candidate. Florida has become very red. Desantis is up 11 points over charlie crist, the democrat. It is a place where i mean, rubio was going to win by four or five, which is fine, a win is a win. I thought this was going to be more competitive because i watched her during the impeachment, she was very impressive as an impeacher. But rubio has done his homework, and i think this is one where desantis is helping the whole climate down there to make florida red. With that set up a marco rubio versus ron desantis both running for president scenario in 2024 . Scott i dont think rubio will run again. Desantis is kind of the talk of the town right now for running for president. He has raised 200 million for his governors race, which is an incredible amount of money, but also he has a National Infrastructure in place on how to raise money if he decides to run for president. But i think they are friends, and even though rubio and jeb were friends, i dont think he would run again, i think he ran once, and desantis, if he went on to win, i would not be surprised to see rubio as secretary upstate or something because they are that close. Gerald there is no shortage of republicans from florida who want to run for president. Youve got rick scott. Scott running the Senate Committee this cycle. If the republicans win, they will get credit he will get credit, just as mcconnell will get some credit. I think the republicans are going to have a healthy field. It is a big bench, men and women. Regardless of what trump does. Every time someone asks me what trump is going to do, it is usually the exact opposite of what i think a is going to do. Gerald lets throw out one more state which is an outlier, but tell us if we should be paying close attention, connecticut. Richard blumenthal, incumbent democrat, running against republican leora leavy. Some people say that might be closer than we thought. Scott i have not seen recent data. Blumenthal is not a very wellliked guy. This is a guy who lied on his resume and said he went to vietnam and said im sorry. Its hard to believe he got through with that. She is an attractive candidate. There is a house racing candidate that is going to be very competitive. Africanamerican republican running, probably going to win. That will be a pickup. Stranger things have happened. I have not seen any data that shows it as close as the smiley race in washington, for example. Gerald i couple points, and that i want to turn to you scott i just want to say something, Something Weird is going to happen on Election Night. Some things. This could be one of them. That is the fun part of this business. You think you know what is going on, you have the data, you look at the messaging, the debates, you think it is going to happen, and then an october surprise happens. We seem to have a lot of surprises. Gerald these will be november surprises. But if you step back from all this and look at the national picture, i think one thing that comes through from listening to you run down the agenda with me is that people have sort of lost sight of the fact that this was a tough map for democrats in many ways. They have more seats to defend. Most republicans who have to defend their seats are in pretty good shape. This is a tough night for democrats, conceivably, just because things are difficult in terms of the stage they have to defend. Scott i think it is tough for democrats because of history. Because of where the president s numbers are, the ballot, where he is spending his time campaigning says a lot. I think you are going to see republicans win three or four or five governors races around the country, maybe youre in kansas, in oregon. Oregon has not elected a republican governor since 1982. Nevada is definitely going to win republican. I think you are seeing changes going on. Gerald on the other hand, to your point about surprises, there was a big surprise in this state in august on the abortion referendum. Prochoice forces won by 18 percentage points, which nobody saw coming, which leads me to the mega question for you in terms of competition of the electorate has the abortion issue galvanized and solidified, and will it turn out a whole cadre of independent voters, particularly women, who have shown up and registered because they are motivated by that issue . Is that the x factor in some of these races . Scott we have not seen, in the states i have looked at, a big bump in registration after dobbs. The kansas thing did shock the world politically. It shocked the Prolife Movement politically. And it kind of woke everybody up. The polls i am reading, i have seen abortion slide down, not to wear was before dobbs, but down. I think the crime issues in the border are going to have more of an impact on swing voters than the abortion issue. That is just how i feel it is coming together. We will see shortly. Gerald final thought, we talked early on this semester in some of these sessions here about how the traditional pattern is for the issue agenda to come back to the economy in the end. That is what we are seeing to some extent here, isnt it . Scott i dont think it ever left, and the democrats are struggling with that. This week, the president and the white house were talking about how republicans are going to cut medicare and social security. No one is talking about that. That is the old playbook, when you have to desperately throw something at republicans. I think that shows the desperate state we are in. It is like the messaging out of washington they are messaging out of washington to think that people do not care about. That is the big disconnect. I think that is what you are going to see on Election Night, and that will be the analysis at the end of the day. Gerald i want to open up to your questions. Raise your hand. We have two microphones. If you have a question, please stand up and speak into the microphone. And a question i remind people is a question. It has a question mark at the end. It is not a speech. Who is interested . We can start right here. Hi. I have heard you guys talk a couple times about how economy is on everyones mind. But biden has also passed some economic bills, so why dont you think that is factoring into the question, or if it is, why isnt it enough . Scott because i dont think the democrats and the white house have been a good job selling what they did. You dont see a single Democrat Campaign today running ads about bidens deficit reduction, because no one believes it. It was a deal done with joe manchin in West Virginia to get him on board, period, end of discussion. It has been a bit of difficulty selling the dog food. I will throw in a couple of thoughts. I think the Closing Argument for the democrats, they have figured out, is it has to be on the economy. You have heard a conversation about the Unemployment Rate lower than it has been in decades. So it still might. I think the second problem democrats have, and we talked about this a few weeks ago, is that one of the difficulties is that some of the effects that the democrats hope will emerge from the legislation they passed our down the road. They are not going to be felt in pocketbooks next week. It is a promise of an economic boom, not a delivery of an economic advantage, and i think that is one of the timing problems the democrats have. Gerald i will give biden and the team credit, they have done a lot of good things, but have not conveyed it in the Midterm Election. Scott and we see that inflation is an incumbent killer. It is terrible. Go back to the 1970s, that is the environment. Gerald 1980, 1982. Scott yeah, even Ronald Reagan was in deep trouble in 1982 because inflation was still eating out peoples pocketbooks. It was after that that reagan bounced back. Gerald i think we have another question. By the way, just one thing real quickly, i forgot to remind people that you can, if you are watching on youtube, you can send in questions by emailing dl equestions dolequestions ku. Edu, and we will pick those up. Go ahead. I would like to have a question about the debate. In the past, there were four debates, at least two. Now most braces have one debate, if not zero. It seems the next residential election will also have zero debates because the candidate will not agree to debate anywhere. Are releasing them forever, and do you think it is important . In one sense, it is important for people to see the candidates and hear them answer questions. On the other hand, many people think the debates never change the race, so what is your opinion . Scott it is a great question and a great point. That is one of the things about this cycle, there have not been many debates in these highprofile senate races. The pennsylvania folks debated once, last night, and it is over. Voting has already started in a number of these places. On the president ial level, there was something called the debate commission, something both parties agreed with, three president ial debates, one Vice President ial debate. Both campaigns, even in 1996, we would meet, discuss what we wanted to do, we would agree, and the commission would implement it. That was the deal, where we had the debates, the format was a town hall, and one on one, who was the moderator . Those are kind of the political decisions you have to make. The commission under trump got very negative. They were all very publicly against trump, and trump said screw the commission, we are going to do our own. I think the nominees of both parties will come back to a commission, but the republicans, because of trump, have dismissed to the commission, and i dont think that is healthy. I think president ially there should be debates before the early voting starts. Last time, have the country was voting before the first debate. It was like, october 3 or something. Something interesting in the senate races this cycle, there have not been a lot debates about debates. People have just said no, we are not doing it. Gerald is anybody paying a price for taking that position . Scott i have not seen that yet. I think the fetterman team probably this morning regrets that they said yes to that one. But the rest of them have been fairly protectable. But there has only been one. I think walker has only had one or two, and they are done. Gerald i think there was only one in florida. Scott there was just one in colorado. Thats weird. Usually there is at least two. Gerald something has changed in the mo here. Others . Right here. College republican. [laughter] thank you for being here. I am curious on what your thoughts are for the future of the Republican Party. Trump has had major impacts, so do you think trumpism will last once trump exits the political arena . Will the party moved back to what some people recognize as before trump . What are your thoughts on the future . Scott i dont think trumpism will exit until trump exits, and i dont know what that means, to be honest. Even if trump does not run, i think he will still be an impact on whoever does run, chirping away at them, causing problems. Whatever the norm you would say was in politics, it was here, he goes here every time on everything. How that impacts everything, i dont think anybody knows. I think there is a healthy bench of republicans that are going to run. Trumps policies on the economy, on regulatory relief, on energy were all pretty good. They created a lot of economic growth. I think some of his policies will carry on. But i think his Foreign Policy will be debated, and i think there will be a healthy debate in the Republican Party. You have seen pence kind of step up lately and talk about going back to the republican model, and pences comment about maybe there will be someone else in the race next time. He has shown some leg recently that we have not seen before, that he is thinking about really running. I think there is going to be a good, healthy debate about issues. Trump always made it personal, and that is what made it ugly and turn off people. Turned off people. I dont think that will carry on to the next round of characters. Gerald let me followup quickly, because you did work for the chamber of commerce for many years. Trump brought Something Different to the table in terms of the Republican Party, or his Republican Partys relationship with the Business Community, which was very hostile in some ways. There were a lot of policies trump pursued that the Business Community liked, but there is still a big business streak in trumpism that produced a lot of tension between the Business Community and trump administration. It left me thinking the Business Community is kind of an orphan in this political environment. They are not comfortable with this version of the democratic party, but not necessarily comfortable with the trump version of the Republican Party. Where is the Business Community go . Scott there was real tension, you put your finger on it, but i think the reason is because trump was the first president in my lifetime that was not an ideological president , meaning he was either left or right, you knew kind of where they were going to go on issues. Trump was a transactional guy. Everything was a transaction to him. On business, he used to have boeing and airbus in the oval office fighting in front of him, kind of like a version of that show the apprentice, and he would just decide. It was not normal governing like we were used to for many years. Pence brought that to the white house. He was kind of the place where the Business Community would go when it really got serious, and he was about to go off the cliff on something. But it was a transactional presidency, and we had never seen anything like that. The Business Community is in for a challenge because the house republicans, which represent the country and the districts they are from, is very heavy trump. They are already making noises about an aggressive posture, not just against big tech, but against this whole woke movement. A lot of corporations are doing a lot of scribbling right now on trying to figure out how they are going to deal with the new republican house. Mcconnell, he plays the long game. He knows how to run this. He knows when to pop off. But he is pretty steadyeddie. The house is a whole different situation, and i think with mcconnell being the speaker, with mccarthy being the speaker, he will have eight or 10 house members in the exotic crowd, way far to the right, that are not going to be predictable and traditional votes, and that is why he needs to pick up 20 to 25 seats, so he has a buffer so he can govern. If Election Night comes and goes and he wins by three seats, we are screwed, because that place will be chaos and nothing will get done. Gerald so when evenly divided house, evenly divided senate, good luck to anybody trying to get anything done. Scott i think the senate will go back to its traditional role of being in the personnel business and blocking any biden appointee on anything. I think some things will grind down. A biden is going to have to make a decision in the next couple of months whether he is going to run or not, and once he makes that decision, i think you are going to see an open race on both sides. Questions . Right back there. My main question is how confident can we be in public now in polling now . Young voters are probably pretty well immobilized well immobilized by reproductive rights well m obilized by reproductive rights. How confident are you . Scott that is a good question. I know you have had two of the best posters in the country here recently, great guys. I think polling is kind of broken. It is not like the old days where you would get calls at home. Most of the people in this ring probably do not have landmines. We live on cell phones now. Who wants to take in a two minute call from a pollster while you are doing something on your cell phone . Nobody does. I live in dallas. We used to to get poll questions all the time. I have not gotten a single one at home. I used to like to take the call because i liked to find out who was doing the pole. Curiosity. You have a great point. We went through this pace with this phase with pollsters. The first excuse was cell phones. We would have pollsters have to make 30 or 40 of the sample with cell phone people, which they hated because it is a harder person to get. It takes a lot of time. It is a more expensive call for them. Then we went to an internet phase where if you did a sample of 10,000 people overnight, is that is good of a sample as 1000 . That has mixed results. Professional people out there that go online and do polling things. Then there is a hybrid of the two. My basic rule is i average three or four poles. I dont believe one, i dont believe two, i try to look at an average. That is why real clear politics is the best thing to look at. It shows trends in the direction things are going. But i think traditional polling is broken. By the way, the media polling, with all due respect to jerry, that is even worse. They are just looking to get cliques and sell eyeballs to look at their news. They just do wide open registered voters. We like to look at people that are going to vote, not just that you are registered, but people who are actual likely voters. There are different ways to slice it. I thicket is broken. I dont know what you guys concluded, but they have difficulties. Gerald the wall street journal will tell you the only way to answer the question is to do all of the above. Do some phone calls, some cell phone poles, some text to web, you send somebody a text and say, would you go online and complete this pole . And to only do it off the voter rolls, not registered voters, only off of roles, which are publicly available, people who have a record of voting. You are only reaching people who do not say they are voters, but who actually have a record of being voters. That is what we do. To scotts point, it is expensive. I have the distinct advantage of being associated with the wall street journal still, and we have the money to do with the right way, but there is no guarantee of success. Part of the reason is you have to also imagine, when you are done doing all the survey work, and you do this in campaigns all the time, what the electorate is going to look like. Which people from which category, which demographic category, are actually going to show up and vote . I think that is where the failure has been in the last couple of cycles, particularly 2016, when you had voters who showed up to vote for donald trump who had no history of voting before and therefore did not show up in any of the models of what people thought the electorate would look like. I dont think the polling was inaccurate as much as the modeling of what the electorate would look like was off base. You saw that in kansas. Nobody imagined the turn of the electorate that would show up. You saw some of that in 2020, i think, when people realized that both biden and trump could win more votes that anybody ever imagined, and what does that electorate look like . Nothing like we have ever seen. Scott the first thing i look at in a poll is who did it, and that i look at the sample. If it is a real sample, like 1000, 1200, or if it is 400, which means you do a National Survey of 400 people, two of them live in new york, illinois, or california. So what sample is that of the midwest . Not a good example. But i stick with averaging two or three of them to get an understanding of the direction. I think that is the key point. Look at polls you paid for this microphone. Only half the people recognize the reference. We will tell you later. We look at polls as something that will tell you what the trend line is, not what the score is in a baseball game. That is the mistake. We just went through a whole bunch of them, and i am committing the sin i preached against, but they tell you what the trendline is, not what is the absolute prediction of the vote, because that is a fools errand. And that is why based on all that paul lines of the last three weeks, it looks like a good trendline for republicans in these senate races, pennsylvania, nevada, georgia. Gerald exactly. Go ahead. [inaudible] gerald a little louder. I am curious what you are thinking of [inaudible] scott i think he is batting a pretty high average. Especially in the senate races. Walker has been the real challenge, but a lot of these folks are firsttime candidates, and that is always a challenge with a firsttime candidate. I think i read the other day he has endorsed 300 people around the country. I can tell you, it was kind of funny, and texas i saw ads in the primary where he endorsed people for District Attorney in the county. Obviously he is trying to run the score up, i won nine of 10 in dallas, but still, down to the District Attorney level, i thought that was kind of for an expresident. No matter what, he is going to declare victory Election Night, or probably the day before election day, that his people will not go everywhere, so get ready for it. But on a serious note, it is something we were all very worried about in the beginning, and it did not turn out as badly as we thought it would, especially in senate races. You mean gerald you mean badly for the republicans. Scott badly for the republicans, meaning picking people who were 100 unelectable. It did not turn out that way. Gerald you have seen it as a party. Scott yeah, we lived it 2010 22014. Gerald i think we have one last question time for one last question. Thank you so much for being here. How do you think about the rise of desantis and the similarities between him and trump . Does he split the republican into the trump part or defend his part . Thank you. Scott desantis is a very impressive politician. Trump did help him win his nomination to be governor and then helped him win statewide. I describe desantis as having trumps qualities, meaning having a good handle on the pulse of the country or his estate, but he does not have trumps style. He is not so mean, so in your face. He has done a great job governing. Since the hurricane happened, he built that bridge in three days. People give him credit. The hurricane is still going to go on for a while, the cleanup, but he is very impressive. He is going to win big. He is going to carry in not just rubio, but a lot of local republicans, and he is going to be the talk of the town for a while until he decides if he wants to run. Trump took a shot at him last week. Trump, youve got to be with trump 100 for you are dead. This 98 stuff does not work. He has been loyal to trump. I think he is the most interesting guy to watch right now. There is a difference between running a stadium running for president. As bob dole knew, you have to put together a national team. You have to be able to understand national issues. You have to be able to show up on time and raise the money. I think he can do two or three of those things right now. I dont know if he can do all four. Gerald you also have to be able to suffer fools gladly, and i dont know if that strikes me as a ron desantis strong suit. Scott if you watched him in the debate the other night, he was not suffering well, but he is very impressive. Nobody has ever raised 200 million. Gerald does that mean some of that big check rolls into a president ial campaign . Scott a big chunk of it, like 100 million of it that he did not have to spend. Gerald i forgot to include john day donald j. Trump on the list of Florida Republicans interested in running for president. He is now a florida republican. Scott and desantis could never pick trump as Vice President because they are from the same state. It would be nice to see a new face. Gerald that is what i am trying to say subtly. I think there is a market for a new fresh face. But you see potential for a lot of fresh faces on the republican side. Scott including governors, that are fresh, politically skilled, but not hardedged. Gerald well, scott, thank you. This has been a fascinating run across the map of the United States of america. Scott thank you for having me. Gerald i appreciate it very much. Thank you for not only being here today, but for being a friend of the dole institute. We appreciate it. [applause] one last programming note, we will back heres we will be back heres same time, same place next week and switch to the other side of the aisle. And very smart democratic operative is going to be here to talk about how democrats can hold off the title wave that scott has been talking about today. I encourage you to come out. She is highenergy. I Federal Reserve chaired Jerome Powell toll debt News Conference to discuss Interest Rates in the u. S. Economic outlook, live coverage starts at 2 30 p. M. Eastern on cspan and you can watch in our free mobile you app or online at www. Cspan. Org. Cspan is your unfiltered view of government. We are funded by these Television Companies and more including mediacom. The world changed in an instant but mediacom was ready. Internet traffic soared and we never slowed down. We powered a new reality. We are built to keep you ahead. Mediacom support cspan is a Public Service along with these other telesion providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. With thmierm elections now just six days away, we have more live deba cerage. Coming up tomorro docratic governor diemckee and his republicanhaenger debate in rhode island
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.