Whats key here is that jones number is higher than barack obama was getting among democrats in the last two president ial elections he was in in alabama. Take a look at how republicans are splitting. You again see obviously moore wins the lion share of them, 91 , but that is slightly underperforming by a few points of what romney did, what mccain did in president ial elections. Moore underperforming the republicans. Which republicans seem to be peeling away we are no surprise but significant, these moderate Republican Voters that weve been talking about in the suburbs. Take a look about moderate republicans, 80 of them are going for moore, 19 of them are going for jones. In 2012, our last exit poll, romney was winning 99 of moderate republicans to Barack Obamas 1 . This is a significant moment for jones that hes digging into some of the republican coalition. And then, of course, weve been talking about all night, race as a factor. The latest exit polls that have just been redistributed to us still show the africanamerican turnout at 30 . 30 of the electorate. That is higher than weve seen in the previous two president ial elections that we have data for, 08 and 12 when there was an africanamerican running for president at the top of the ticket. David chalian, thanks very much. Lets go now to our panel. Africanamerican turnout critical. Very critical. I mean for doug jones. He would not be in this race if it were not for a high africanamerican turnout, and as David Chalian was saying, were looking here, this is higher than barack obama got. Thats a good sign for him. You know, the problem he has is he doesnt get evangelicals. David is going to talk about some white collar graduates that hes not getting. And, you know, the issues that matter to people in this state, the issues of abortion, for example, hes on the wrong side. And you cannot underestimate that in a state like alabama, when and also the interesting thing that i was looking at is trumps approval and disapproval in alabama, its a tie, which is kind of stunning given the fact that he won the state by 2 to 1. David axelrod . That is a big question. College educated whites, they are an important component that jones needs to win this race in these exit poll numbers, he is underperforming significantly underperforming what he would need. Not even getting 30 of the overall white vote under 40 of College Educated whites. If that holds up, and these are exit polls, theyre not votes, if that holds up it may be that even the 30 turnout among africanamericans wont be enough for him to win this race. Weve seen that in previous races. If you look at 2014, for instance, the contest in louisiana with mary landrieu, africanamericans a big share of that vote. She got creamed among white voters and thats why she ended up losing. The same case in north carolina. Africanamericans a big share of that vote, but just not able to compete. The democrat there kay hagan with white voters. That is really the story of the south in general. And especially in a state like alabama, which is so racially polarized, right . Youve got 70 of voters that are white, about 30 or so that are black. 2. 3 million are active white voters. About 850,000 are active black voters. So, i mean, the numbers there i think its just really hard for somebody like doug jones to compete. One thing i just want to mention is that the late breakers, people who decided in the last ten days, they are going overwhelmingly for moore in this exit poll, as are voters who decided in december. So some of that is the impact of the story receding. Some of it may be the visit of the president in the last hours of the campaign. Lets turn over to this side. Bakari sellers, rick santorum, jen psaki. You were down there campaigning for doug jones . I was down there, which ironically enough was the 62nd anniversary of rosa parks in the sitin. People saying about the black vote in the south, in alabama particularly, being somewhat dom style or docile just wasnt the case. You were seeing enthusiasm and to think that voters in alabama, youre talking about voters, many of which are just one generation away from seeing selma, one generation away from hearing and seeing about rosa parks and the montgomery bus boycott or the Tuskegee Airmen were going to sit at home on such an important day when they knew the cost that was paid just to get the right to vote i thought was intellectually dishonest and lazy. We knew those people were coming out. The question is whether or not he will get the number of College Educated white voters he needs, whi needs, College Educated white women like he needs. Particularly we need to look at Jefferson County, which is birmingham and we also need to look at huntsville. Those are the two most important areas. I was in huntsville, in birmingham, africanamerican voters are excited. If hes able to get the numbers he needs in those two counties, in Jefferson County the location where huntsville is, its going to be an extremely lock day. Roy moore was not on the campaign trail since last tuesday. Do you think that was wise . Do you think it shows confident on Moore Campaign part or they just want to keep him out of making any mistakes . Yeah, i mean been hes the flash point in the campaign and im not too sure there is anything he could have said or done or exposing himself to the media would be a positive thing for the campaign, so i think they probably did as good a job to make him not the issue in the campaign. I moean, he has been the issue n the campaign, but theyre going to win this race if they win tonight because theyre appealing to be need to hold the senate, all of these issues that moore really doesnt represent. So i think that was a very smart move. And, you know, im concerned about the 30 africanamerican turnout, but i think that may be driven more by a lot of whites staying home because they just didnt feel like they wanted to vote as opposed to maybe amped up turnout on the other side. So i think what i was talking to folks in alabama in the last 24 hours, i think there was a feeling that moore was going to win and that that actually was hurting him a little bit. Because you have a lot of voters there who werent particularly excited about voting for him and thought, well, hes going to win, i can stay home and i dont have to be part of voting for someone who i dont feel good about voting for. Jen . I think the africanamerican turnout numbers are very good signs, but i think people should remember that barack obama had 28 and he still lost the state by more than 10 points. So these numbers were talking about like White Working Class voters, white voters, a lot of doug jones ad money was targeted towards conservative women, republican women. Did that work or didnt it work . We really dont know at this point but he needs to get a huge chunk of those voters to get across the finish line. Amanda, i want to hear from you quickly. What makes this race exciting we get a preview of whats going to happen in 2018 and 2020. Ro roy moore is running the trump playbook. And also denying sexual allegations and the very exact same way that donald trump has in the past and continues to do so today. But also in the democratic side, you see the democrats still struggle to gain their footing in the postobama world. Theyre trying their best to capitalize on anger and resentment by women and minorities. That is a dynamic that is not going to change tonight, in 2018 or 2020. That will hold. Lets check in with David Chalian. Again, youre getting some more numbers. Anderson, you guys were just talk talking about with david axelrod, the college ed waited white voters in alabama. Take a look at how they split today. This is really interesting. Moore wins 59 of them. Jones is winning 37 . Overall they make up 29 of the electorate. So that is a 22point advantage for moore, but i just want to explain that mitt romney won this group in 2012 by 59 points. So now that 59 point republican advantage among white College Educated voters in alabama has gone to a 22 advantage. Then when you look at white voters without a college degree, a bigger share, 36 of the electorate, you see that moore wins 78 of them to jones 20 of them. So obviously that is a 58 margin, a healthy margin there. Again, underperforming romney with this group who won them against obama by 75 points in 2012. Fascinating. David chalian, thanks. Bakari, im wondering when you were there, the controversial statements that roy moore has made about muslims, about guy people, about, well everybody. A lot of different groups. You know, the tenth amendment, amendments after the tenth amendment, getting rid of some of them. Did those motivate people or was it issues in particular . And i guess on the flip side, for moore supporters, is it ignoring those controversial statements and its the core issues of abortion and, you know, keeping the republican majority and things like that . I think there were two things. The first is that if you take away this is hard to do, but if you take away the cases of Sexual Harassment, pedophilia, whatever you want to call it, sexual assault, if you take those away, there are many people, especially those in alabama who know roy moore who still believe roy moore is a really bad candidate because of the things he said, because of the xenophobia, because of the bigotry, because of the homophobia. That was exemplified earlier today when his spokesperson was on the air and said that homosexuality should be illegalized. So, i mean, set that aside, but there is also a sense of individuals who just knew history. And there are a lot of us who put roy moore in the same category that we put a george wallace, that you put a bull conner. There is this theory, many of us want to aspire to the belief that weve made progress in this country. Roy moore is so emblematic of a past that we dont want to go back to. You saw groups like the ncaa, yncaa, naacp. You saw the black church and different sororities and fraternities, historically black colleges, the normal traditions of the Africanamerican Community that are reenergized because we understand the value of this race. This race is more than just doug jones and roy moore, and, yes, we may lose this race tonight, that can happen, but the reason that democrats lose this race tonight would not be because of the africanamerican vote. We can guarantee you that. Senator santorum, in the exit polls i think it was 49 say that roy moore shares their values. Which is remarkably low for alabama. I mean, because alabama is a very conservative state. So the idea that he obviously some of the points that bakari made, people who are conservatives who would otherwise agree with a lot of the policy prescriptions hes laid out on abortion and other things dont agree with him. There is no question that roy moore was a weak candidate when it came to this beyond issues of the Sexual Harassment charges. But for the Sexual Harassment charges, he would have still won alabama in a very comfortable margin. Heres whats interesting to me, of those people who said the charges are probably true, 15 of them still voted for roy moore. According to these polls. And that means that there is a lot of other stuff either they didnt want to vote for jones because they dont want to vote for a democrat or there is a litmus test on abortion, or, you know, theyre conservative and trump made a difference, but that was remarkable to me. Getting a key race alert. Lets go to wolf. Anderson, thanks very much. Lets check out, very, very early. Only a few hundred votes are in, but you can see doug jones has a lead. 60 , almost 40 for roy moore. 149 votes ahead. This is extremely, extremely early. There are going to be hundreds of thousands of votes before this night is over with. John, very early. Extremely early. I dont want people to draw any wrong conclusions. We cant get anything out of this. Everything were getting so far is absentee ballots that are counted before the polls closed and they begin to release those numbers on a county by county basis. Were going to be in for a long count. When you see the pace picking up, well have a better sense. If you look at the map right now, it doesnt tell you much at all. Roy moore is going to win down here in coffey count they. This is where he in statewide elections has won, including close races, he wins it up here among rural Trump Evangelical voters. Well keep an eye on this. This tells us nothing. Thats what he needs in terms of a margin. Up around 70 in counties like this, that would be proof in the number numbers hold up. Two things were going to look at, one the margins and two, the raw numbers. Is the Republican Base coming out we are are trump voters coming out . Are evangelicals coming out . On the flip side, where doug jones is winning. Unlikely hes going to end with 95 in this particular county. Very early votes. Not just the margins, but the turnout, is democratic intensity, more democrats coming out higher than republican intensity. Just one last thing well look at, i do think this number if the africanamerican turnout is as high as we think and if doug jones can do moderately well, make inroads in the suburbs like David Chalian was just talking about, this number could, emphasis on could, could become significant. A lot of democrats think it would be hard to get doug jones over 50 , but if you can win with 47 or 48 because there is a higher number of writein candidates, that could become part of the factor. As we start to watch the votes come in, this is going to be at least a couple of hours as we count them in. Dont just watch the margins here. See if this number, the percentage starts to grow as a piece of the electorate, if the finish line, wolf, victory could be 47, 48, 49 . John, let me give our viewers a little update. Once again, very, very early. Only about 1,000 votes counted so far. Doug jones, hes got a little advantage. Right now, 63 . 35 for the republican roy moore. Hes ahead by 263 votes, but, remember, this is extremely, extremely early. Its way too early to call in alabama. There is a lot of suspense is in the Senate Election as we wait for more votes to come in. Stay with us. They came out of nowhere, sir how many of em . We dont know. Dozens. All right lets teach these freaks some manners good luck out there, captain thanks but i dont need luck, i have skills. I dont have my keys. on intercom all hands. We are looking for the captains keys again. They are on a silver carabiner. Oh, this is bad. As long as people misplace their keys, you can count on geico saving folks money. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. When sundown pales the sky i want to hide a while behind your smile ah, but i may as well try and catch the wind our mission is to make offshore wind one of the principle new sources of energy. Not every bank is willing to get involved in a first of its kind project. Citi saw the promise of clean energy. Were polluting the air less. Businesses and homes can rely on a steady source of power. This will be the first of many offshore wind farms in the u. S. For standing in your heart is where i want to be and long to be ah, but i may as well try and catch the wind all right. Welcome back. We have another key race alert. Once again, very, very early. Doug jones, the democrat, maintaining a lead over roy moore, the republican, 61 to 38 . But once again, extremely, extremely early in this contest. Its going to be an exciting night, john, by all accounts. But once again, very early in this contest. Right. The key is the most key number right now is down here, 0 of the vote. Were mostly getting absentee ballots as they come in around the state. Two Campaign Headquarters getting call from precincts. These numbers coming into us and reporting by the secretary of state. It appears to be a very close race. They will grasp each one of these numbers. For example, if youre in the Moore Campaign, you know up in winston county, not a lot of people here, but he needs big margins. These are your evangelical voters, conservative voters. Roy moore has to win this big. Lets go back in time to the last time he won statewide in that county, he got 79 . We come back to where we are now, hes getting just shy of 60 he has to get those numbers up. Were only at 5 so make no judgements based on it that. Matching them up to past races, running them through their own model. If youre in the Jones Campaign, the fact that Mobile County is early blue, thats encouraging. This if roy moore is going to win, he wants this to be red at the end of the night. If it stays blue, again, were at 1 , if it stays like that, doug jones is in a very competitive place to be the next senator from the state of alabama. At 1 , youre just encouraged. Number one, its a swing county for a democrat to be competitive, they need to change the math here and be like that. Number one. Number two, again, this is where the president targeted. He was down here in pensacola, didnt cross into alabama, but his message was delivered to republicans in this area. You see blue filling in here in clark county. Again, very early results. Just 3 of the vote in this one particular county. On what is going to be a tense night and a long count, people are sitting in these Campaign Offices saying, okay, roy moore needs this to be red, doug jones needs this to be blue, this is one of the contested places, if it stays blue, jones is in play. The Tensions Mount as the early numbers start to come in. Compared to the last time he ran, roy moore, is the blue filling in where its supposed to be blue and the red where its supposed to be red . Significant changes so far early in the contest. David chalian was making this point earlier. Lets go back to the history first. 2016, donald trump wins. Lets go back to 2012, mitt romney wins and wins comfortably. Remember, 61 to 38 in the president ial race. This is the last time roy moore was on the ballot running for chief justice. 52 . Dramatically underperforming the republican president ial candidate in his own state. And so what do you have here . You have the democratic candidate winning across here. This is why i circled that earlier. The democratic candidate beating losing the race by 3 1 2, 4 points but beating roy moore down here and up here. See the red up here . Im going to use a different color to tell the distinction. The red is where roy moore needs to run it up. This is the 2012 race that was very competitive. Roy moore eking out a victory here. Lets come back here to where we are right now. As you watch the map fill in, again, filling the way roy moore want it is here and filling in the way doug jones want it is here. The way roy moore want it is here. The biggest question for doug jones, im going to take this away so its not confusing. The biggest question is when Jefferson County comes in, birmingham needs to run it up. Not just win, but run it up. That needs to be a route for doug jones. Well look here add at madison county. If its red, roy moore wins, if its blue at the end of the night, doug jones is in play. Birmingham is about 13 of the population right there. This is a giant piece. Number one, in urban birmingham, central birmingham, that is your democratic base, bakari was talking about this earlier tonight. It is key that doug jones not only win the africanamerican vote, the democratic base, but, again, not just the percentages, the math. You need to see the democratic intensity here. Blue state, leaning blue state, can democrats come out with such intensity in a red state . This will be absolutely critical here. If doug jones gets what he wants, Shelby County and counties like it come into play, the suburbs. These are where you find your moderate republicans, and if you go back to the runoff here, not to get too technical, but roy moore won the runoff over luther strange, the interim senator. Look where he didnt do well. The light orange is luther strange. These are places where you do have more moderate. Its alabama, theyre conservatives, but more moderate suburban republicans who arent Donald Trumps best voters and historically in alabama have not been roy moores best voters. So as we get back into the official count for tonight up here, urban areas absolutely critical for doug jones first. Then we get into the suburbs, and then the other question is when you see these rural areas filling in red, is it not just the margins but is that you need that number to come up. Are they coming out to vote or are some rural evangelicals, trump more republicans staying home . Give us 10678 researches. A little comparison to birmingham. Lets go back to birmingham, that county almost 13, almost 14 of the electorate in alabama. How did Hillary Clinton, for example, do in the last president ial contest there. Election here obviously. Tial you see the same dynamic. This is whats called the black belt and its called that for the top soil, deep, black, rich agricultural top soil. It is also a democratic area and where you have a significant africanamerican population. The base, any stepping stone for any democrat to be competitive has to be here. 14 of the population. Birmingham, the suburbs. Hillary clinton, 52 . Thats a good margin, but its not good enough. If you go back, you see this throughout. Lets go back to the 2012 president ial election. Obama 53 here. That is because dont think of it just as birmingham central city, its because of the suburbs. The democrats win in the city and the suburbs around is where the republicans make their inroads and keep the numbers closer and then the republicans get their margin of victory elsewhere in the state, specially when they sweep these smaller rural counties. This will be the first place we watch tonight. Doug jones essentially has to outperform barack obama and Hillary Clinton to put this into play. The combination of young voters, africanamerican voters and then reaching into the suburbs. So in Jefferson County, which includes birmingham, hes going to have to do a lot better than 52 in order to carry the rest of the state, right . Yes. And because there are so many more republicans than democrats in modern day alabama, its not just doing better than the 50 , its were going to look a lot more at the hard numbers tonight. The math. To see if the key to this is for the democrats to over turnout, overperform. Youd have to find examples for doug jones. That gets him into play. To see if he can win, you have to see if there is evidence in the more rural areas of the state that some republicans are staying home or these writein numbers grow. 1 of the vote is in. Doug jones has a lead, 79 to 29 . Still very, very early. Coming up, what women President Trump do if roy moore wins . Were getting details on that was we stand by for votes out of alabama. A wealth of information. A wealth of perspective. A wealth of opportunities. Thats the clarity you get from fidelity wealth management. Straightforward advice, tailored recommendations, taxefficient investing strategies, and a dedicated advisor to help you grow and protect your wealth. Fidelity wealth management. To help you grow and protect your wealth. Directv has been rated number one in Customer Satisfaction over cable for 17 years running. But some people still like cable. Just like some people like wet grocery bags. Getting a bad haircut. Overcrowded trains. Turnstiles that dont turn. 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Firstthen you put yourselfareer. Through school. Got the degree. Youve given it your all, to reach the goals youve set. Dont let student debt hold you back. Refinancing Student Loans with sofi can save thousands. So you can get where youve always been headed. Sooner. See how much you can save with sofi. The leader in student loan refinancing. All right. Weve got another key race alert. Lets take a look. Again, very early, 1 of the vote has now been counted. Doug jones, the diplomat, he maintains his lead over roy moore, the republican. 64 to 35. 5 . Hes up by almost 3,000 votes. Once again, though, very, very early in this con2e69. Lets go of to jeff zeleny at the white house. Jeff, we know the president is watching the results come in. Reporter we do indeed, wolf. Im told the president is in the residence of the white house watching the results come in and watching this alabama race very carefully. Over the last three weeks ago so he has gradually distanced himself from the Republican Leaders up on capitol hill who have been sharply critical of roy moore. Well, the question is what happens if he wins, if hell, you know, what the president will do then. I am told that the president s support for moore offers a window into this thinking. Its really been somewhat of a kra shen doe if you will. He initially was tepid in his support. But i am told by a republican official close to this white house the president does not plan to support any kind of talk of censure if he comes or any type of resistance. His message will be the people of alabama have spoken. Now, the interesting question will be if jones wins, will that still be the president s message, of course . Wolf, he has all on the line here. The president is allin on this because he was told that he believes that moore can win. And he can, of course, but this would be the biggest defeat for the president so far of any race hes become involved in. Of course way too early for that, but if moore comes, of course, the president , look for him to support him. Wolf . Way too early. Only 1 of the vote counted. Jeff zeleny, thanks very much. Anderson over to you. Wolf, thanks very much. Amanda, you know capitol hill well. If the congress is not supporting an investigation or censure or anything, is that a done deal . Of course the president doesnt want an investigation into past sexual allegations against roy moore because if republicans investigate that on behalf of roy moore, how can they also say we will never look into any accusations against donald trump . That is just a bind. Of course he wants it to go nowhere. That said, republicans are on record saying they would look into it but i felt they were backing off of that in the last few days saying, oh, maybe we wont give him a committee assignment. And Lindsey Graham saying this gets kind of tricky when it didnt happen when he was a u. S. Senator. Theyve been trying to find way as round that. Now that donald trump is drawing a line into the sand saying dont look into it, hes once again put the Republican Party into a box. I disagree. The senate is not going to look into as an ethics matter what the president did because the president isnt a senator. Theyre going to look into what a senator did i have no doubt in roy moore wins tonight there will be an ethics investigation. Really . Even if the president support it is . It doesnt matter whether the president support it is or not. The president is not a member of the senate. The president isnt up for election in 2018 and a bunch of senators and house members are and theyre the ones nervous about having to wear roy moore as an anchor around their neck. I was a senator, i would want that investigation, i would want to see what the evidence is, id want to feel comfortable with it. Ive said it throughout the process, youre either going to get a vindicated roy moore or a new senator from alabama. But if there is an investigation and they do find wrongdoing, what happens then . I think there will be tremendous pressure for him to resign. If he doesnt do it, i think they will expel him. See, because what i foresee is that the Republican Caucus would be very split, particularly if the president of the United States was on the other side of it. I would just point out that in this particular primary, among this electorate, Mitch Mcconnell had an Approval Rating of 14 and the Republican Party was held in no higher esteem than the Democratic Party. This was an antiestablishment vote in alabama and there are other places where there are as well, where your former colleagues feel that pressure. I think it is i mean, i appreciate what youre saying and i think that senator mcconnells intend is probably to do what you suggest, but, boy, ill tell you, i think its going to be a rocky scholes to navigate. Let me just raise this question because i was talking to somebody today who has done a lot of legal work with the Ethics Committee in the senate, and the question that he asks is would the Ethics Committee be able to exercise its authority on a matter in which the allegations were known when people went to the polls . Not something that happened after they voted for their senator but something that happened and they knew about it and they voted for him anyway. I think that complicates things. I think a lot of people in alabama voted for roy moore with the expectation that the senate would do its job. I heard that over and over again from people in alabama, that, yeah, were concerned about it, but we trust the senate will look into this. Now im not saying there were a lot of strong roy moore supporters. Im not talking about them. Im talking about the votes he needed to win this election. A lot of those votes so you actually heard that from people who said, look, im going to vote for him but im hoping the Senate Either clean it up and get a vindicated roy moore or well have a roy moore that will be replaced. I mean, first of all, the race is nowhere near over. And we do believe that doug jones has a legitimate chance to win this race. Sure he does. But my only point is as a democrat, do you know how good to feels right now to actually have the better person running for office . Like, this isnt even a competition. I know what youre saying. This is not even a question. You know, for me, its the travesty is that youve had a lot of people that put the policy and the party over the moral fabric of this country, and as democrats were sitting back and we can i know you want to go down a rabbit hole with bill clinton and everybody else. Im going to talk about roy moore and doug jones. The fact of the matter is, when you look at this race, there hasnt been a clearer dichotomy of two candidates weve seen in recent history. To be polite tonight, racist tendencies versus someone who prosecuted the bombers of the 16th street baptist church. You have someone who gave justice to little girls versus someone who preyed on them. There is no clearer contrast than what were talking about. When were talking about what would happen to roy moore in the United States senate with all of his problems. Lets give democrats the benefit of being able to breathe if we win, we have have joy on the heels. If we lose, we will have lost with a great horse. Doesnt it concern you as a democrat, the fact that you can face a candidate with all of these problems and youre still not going to win this race outright . Will you be willing to willing to moderate their positions on things like abortion. Right now, the Democratic Party has gotten radical, extreme on this and it has made the idea of voting for a democrat a complete nonstarter for all republicans. That is why they will vote for someone like roy moore. If he lose this race, there are a couple of things. Were in the fifth most conservative state in the union. Were in alabama. Thats first. Second, i love the high ground that republicans are taking on the issue of abortion because the most amazing thing is all of a sudden republicans care about babies when theyre in the womb, but they dont care about teenagers because they vote for roy moore . Ive been very vocal against roy moore. The hypocrisy is really kneedeep right now. Are you willing to give something to Republican Voters . Well, first of all, i think this is not all democrats or all of the Democratic Party. There is a Division Within the Democratic Party and there are litmus tests that shouldnt be there because we are never going to win if we do that. I agree with that. Amen. If doug jones wins, just like we learned from virginia, we need candidates that fit the district. Doug jones is on the wrong side of some issues that Republican Voters would like him to be on, however, he is more conservative than what most progressive democrats would like to see in the state. I will say, you are taking the very high moral high ground, which i think is the right thing and i agree with everything you said, but this is still tomorrow morning when democrats wake up, if roy moore wins, democrats are still going to be happy. Its interesting, it seems like democratic groups from outside of alabama did make an effort, a big effort kind of behind the scenes over the last couple of weeks in alabama, pumping in money, sending in people on the ground, even though doug jones sort of was separating himself from the national democrats. Thats been a tricky line that jones has had to walk because being the for all the reasons that you see, the worst thing for doug jones was to have this race nationalized. The reason the president was down there was to nationalize the race. You saw the late breakers moving away from jones because the truth of the matter is, if jones wins tonight, that very tenuous margin in the Senate Becomes more tenuous. And that is something Mitch Mcconnell doesnt want, which is why hes sort of tolerated moore. He wants to keep that seat in republican hands. Perhaps they expel moore. But then you have a republican governor appoint his replacement. The other alternative is to have doug jones, who is a democrat, and you have to live with that until 2020. But, yes, democrats have been trying to help doug jones but do it in such a way as not to draw attention to this right. As a national race. I would say theyve been doing that long before the allegations came out. That was after the primary win. Part of the argument that the republican establishment was making before the allegations. Remember, Mitch Mcconnell stood in the rose garden with the president of the United States explaining why he thought it was a terrible thing moore was the nominee in this race because of the history of todd aiken and other republican nominees out of the mainstream for the general electorate. Democrats, again, a tricky situation, youre right, because he doesnt want to be seen as the Democrat National brand down in alabama, but the moment moore won that primary, they went in. Remember, anderson, there was a fox news poll, again, a month before the allegations that had this race tied. Moore is a particularly problematic candidate prior to the allegations and the democrats seized that opportunity early. But they had to be so carol. I mean, you had barack obama doing a robocall at the last minute. Joe biden went in in october i believe and you had john lewis and cory booker down there, but they were tip toeing because they didnt want to alienate those suburban republican women who might cross over. They didnt want to alienate any potential moderate republicans. When he went down there, were you wearing a disguise . I drove in in the cover of darkness. Briefly, the way its done is you take a candidate like doug jones who knows the black community and knows the base, but they dont know hes talking about issues that affect alabamans. Hes talking about rural hospitals, schools. Weve got to take a break. Were following every vote as this Critical Senate rate is decided. Standing by for results. Well be back in just a moment. Together, y great things come in twos. Right now when you buy any of this seasons hot new Samsung Galaxy phones, you get a second one free to gift. Thats one samsung for you. One to give. Tmobile. Holiday twogether. This this this is my body of proof. Proof of less joint pain and clearer skin. This is my body of proof that i can take on Psoriatic Arthritis with humira. Humira works by targeting and helping to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to both joint and skin symptoms. Its proven to help relieve pain, stop further joint damage, and clear skin in many adults. Humira is the 1 prescribed biologic for Psoriatic Arthritis. Humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. 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Based on the votes were seeing, where theyre coming in from, can we draw any significant conclusions or way too early . I wouldnt say significant conclusions, but if youre a democrat, especially sitting in doug jones headquarters, watching the map fill in and starting to get hopeful. Starting to get hopeful. Let me add the big important caveats, 3 of the vote in. Dont jump to conclusionings. This is a ruby red state. Dont jump to conclusions. If you look the at results coming in so far, we talked earlier, most important place for doug jones, the first piece of a foundation to an improbable democratic win in alabama is Jefferson County. Hes getting close to 90 of the vote right now. Again, its only 1 . These are largely absentee ballots. Lets be careful. If youre just sitting around saying in the very early results are we doing what we need to do . The answer in Jefferson County is yes plus a little. Lets move up here to the huntsville area. This is madison county, again 1 . Strap in. Were going to be here for awhile. Are we in play . If youre doug jones youre looking at those numbers and saying, okay, thats the way we needed to start the night. One more i want to get to is tuscaloosa, 23 to 75 . If it ends up that way at the end of the night, doug jones is in play. Thats 4 . Be careful. If youre in the democratic headquarters, youre saying the places,we need to run up the very early results are quite encouraging. I want to go back in time, again, look at the 2012 president ial race, mitt romney gets 61 in alabama. Roy moore is running for chief justice of the Supreme Court on the same ballot, on the same day, hes a known figure statewide, he gets only 52 . He has a history of underperforming, even republicans, other republicans on the ballot in his own state. So remember this race. Lets look at it right now. This is where it is interesting early on. I wont say significant because weve got a lot more votes to count, but this is interesting. For example, lets take a look. The democratic candidate in the 2012 race got 63 in Jefferson County. It was a close race, right . 5248, roy moore wins, bob vance losings but gets 63 in Jefferson County. Tonight in the early results, doug jones is up at 88 . He is overperforming early on the democrat. I can show you other counties where that is consistent. Doug jones is overperforming the candidate that just lost to roy moore in 2012. If youre in roy moore headquarters, these counties right across the northern part of the state right here, evangelical christians, rural Republican Voters, roy moore voters, trump voters, absolutely critical to roy moore tonight to offset the urban arabias, morgan county, 2. 5 . This is so far tonight. 3 . 51 to 47 . Lets go back to 2012 and that race. 51 now. So roy moore is underperforming roy moore in that very competitive 1992 race. I want to, again, its very early on as you watch this as you watch this fill in, but if youre in the two headquarters, you are now calling into these places. Most of this is absentee ballots and you are trying to get any intelligence you can about whether these numbers are going to stand up. Another key area for doug jones, Montgomery County, montgomery, alabama, of course, africanamerican base. Then you get out into the suburbs out here. That number holds on a night when you know its close, and youre sitting in the Campaign Headquarters, this is the tense time, youre looking at these numbers, if youre doug jones, this tells you im in play, at least for now. Well have an interesting night. If youre roy moore, you know you see a 3 still in, but it tightened up a bit. The difference, its getting tighter even as we speak. Not a lot of people up here. This is just over 100 votes, but as these come out, its just 5 , 60 in this county. The key is going to be if a, well do some raw math. Its not just the fact that doug jones is winning Jefferson County by 78 points there. Unlikely that margin will hold up. But often we focus on the margins in these counties. Tonight is a big test of turnout. Were going to see how these numbers compare to other statewide races. Are more democrats turning out . Like we saw in virginia and new jersey. Are these numbers higher than normal in the blue places and are these numbers mother than normal in the red places . Thats where well be a couple hours from now in this race. If youre in doug jones headquarters, got tighter. Well probably have a roller coaster. Might flip a few times. If youre in doug jones headquarters, its in play, but you have a lot of waiting left. We saw roy moore takes the lead there. Doug jones 48. 1 i. So it just flipped even as we were speaking. Hes one place, we went up to 5 here. Got much closer. In madison county. This is a key swing county. This could go back and forth tonight. For a democrat to be in play you want to keep this blue. Its blue at the moment but because roy moore narrowed the margin there, were up to 12 here. We have a lot of accounting to do. Most of this area thats empty, this will be blue, should be blue across here. Motivate up here and down here should be in a normal alabama race would be red. Judge moore has growth to be had. When we get in the urban areas were still at 4 here. Can doug jones keep anything hike those margins because its here in tuscaloosa, more importantly here in Jefferson County. Then down to Montgomery County and then Mobile County and the southwestern part of the state where the people are. You have the urban areas and then the suburbs. That will decide it. 50 to 48. Not eastern a thousand votes difference. Lets go to jake and dana. I suspect were going to see a back and forth for a while as the votes come in, only 4 of the vote is in so far. Thats right. One of the things thats been interesting about this race in talking to voters down there and republicans in alabama is that theres almost been an effort to convince these people to give them a reason to overlook the stuff they dont like about roy moore, and you can break up there race are into before the november 9th Washington Post story came out, then there was a period when it seemed as though he had been abandoned by everyone. President trump wasnt talking about him. The rnc pulled out. And then there was a time when people started pushing in. In the last few days, the people have made up their mind, have broken for roy moore as opposed to jones. But if you go back to november, its the opposite. 57 of the voters made up their mind before november, and 51 of them were for jones. 47 for roy moore. Roy moore closed strong with these voters who were undecided. The momentum was against him and then very much for him. There could be a lot of reasons r first, the trump effect. The fact that the president went down to the border near alabama in florida, did a rally, did a row bow call, tweeted about him, good goth the momentum going. I was texting with a prominent southern conservative asking what he thought, and the answer was potentially the other side, former president obama coming up for jones, and kind of igniting the Republican Base. Just the inability for conservative person who has never voted democrat in his or her life to full lever for a democrat, or just this is something thats interesting. A Lasting Impact that sort of embedded in the culture of many southern areas that they dont like people coming from the outside and telling them what to do, and all those things could be reasons for the i wouldnt necessarily say its a moore surge, but the fact is he does seem to have them. We have a key race alert 5 of the vote has been counted. Roy moore, the republican, hes slightly ahead, 51. 2 to doug jones 47. 4 , about 2,500 vote advantage for roy moore over doug jones. But once again, 5 of the vote is in. Roy moore takes a slight advantage. Back with the panel. It is obviously 5 of the vote, its way too early to tell much. It would be a mistake to leap to conclusions, these exit polls are wonderful tools but theyre blunt tools sometimes and theyre not awesome right. Again, i think the number to continue to watch is this number among college educatd whites, among whom jones hoped to build a larger lead. T than democrats usually get. Right now hes not getting the numbers he needs in these exit polls. But well see. Were still looking at absentee ballots. Can you just talk about these exit polls . We talk about them so much, have so much discussion. How are you they taken and what are their inherent biases . You have sample precincts throughout the state. You would call a thousand americans to get the pulse of the whole country. You have people who are standing outside those sample precincts asking people do you mind if i ask you questions about the vote you just cast . And you have people take that survey. Weve seen over the years that democrats are more inclined to take the survey than republicans are. And therefore, you wait against that knowing that that inherent bias exists. It is a blunt instrument, but it is a representative sample and we wait for things like what did the vote look like there historically over the last statewide elections there. That gets fed into the models you use. And you look at different models, and then most importantly, anderson, it gets weighted against the real vote as the real vote is coming in. It gets weighted against the sample to make sure the exit poll starts reflecting with the actual voters did. I just heard from a republican pulser who said do you think moore voters are going to actually you mean roy moore voters. Are going to stop and listen and take an exit poll from people they dont trust . Yeah, because thats been a theme of this campaign, outsiders coming in, the media coming in. And that made a factor with donald trump and the polls and maybe wouldnt want to play ball. Some might not want to admit they voted for a democrat. And it was a factor in the trump race in 2016 when people didnt admit they voted for trump and clearly they went in and pulled the lever for him. Another interesting number to look at here, david mentioned the not impressive Approval Rating for the Republican Party. The steve bannon effect here and kind of what that will mean coming out of here will be a big issue tomorrow because if moore wins then steve bannon is going to be empowered, that wing of the party will be empowered. This is potentially even more divisive within the party not just about what the ethics investigation and how that is going to go as well. Do you buy that . I dont think that steve is going to come out of this in better shape given the tremendous veils of what his candidate has put his party and is going to put this party to if hes successful. Im not sure this is this is the a great night for steve, even if roy moore wins. Look, i happen to believe that a lot of folks, particularly those whi white suburban voters, find it hard to say they voted for roy moore. If this is this race is a daddy heat, i think roy moores the winner. I dont see how he doesnt win. Theres a number i think the Jones Campaign is watching out for, and thats the rightend voter number. T writein voter number. Doug jones sneeds a lower win number. He needs to win under 50 . And so i think the higher that number creeps up t better off it is for doug Jones Campaign. Were at the top of the hour. I want to show you where the votes are. 7 of the vote in. We have 48,464 for roy moore. It just went up. 54 of the vote for roy moore, 44 for doug jones. Just 8 of the vote now in. Still a long way to go. Polls closed just one hour ago. Were still trying to learn more about turnout numbers. Weve been looking at exit polling, but we wont get the full picture until later. We dont know at this point what the