simple and cherry picked, simple events, we misrs really the tred lines and the trend lines over the tenure of putin's rule were towards greater belligerent with influence and you change his mind based on whatever the environment is at the moment and part of that is driven by the fact he's not getting a great deal of push back from the west. we said well, maybe the russians can still do better. they can still be democratic. we had a lot of wishful thinking about the direction of the country. we didn't take a cool appraisal and didn't push back on the turn towards aggression. we saw that unfolding in 2007, 2008 with the georgia war. it just, we were too slow to realize the direction we were going. we were thinking 2002 as opposed to 2008 or 2014 and we still have some thinking about russia today, i think.