Im sara eisen. Good morning to you from me as well. It is is throwback thursday. Artists on on forbess list of the highest paid musicians of 2016. First up. Obviously. 170 million. Did you see the increase . It was about half of last year. Big gains. Lets check on the global market. It is is important. Very important. First day of december. Dow futures start strong. A little bit. Up 14 points. S p and nasdaq both negative. We saw this in yesterdays session. S p down two points. Nasdaq down five. On this first day of the month, here is a look how the markets closed out november. S p 500 up 3. 4 . And the nasdaq up nearly 2. 6 . So it was the underperformer of the three. The big one, the russell 2000 finishing with a gain of nearly 11 . As for the 10year treasury note yield this morning, big stories sell off in bonds. The 10year yield shot up. 241 is where we sit today. Next week is ecb, then the federal reserve. We have the italian referendum this weekend. And jobs tomorrow. A few catalysts. The buying of the dollar, buying of stocks has been the november trade. Oil prices, big story. 8 jump on the back of that deal between opec members in vienna. And wti pushing closer to 50 a barrel. Can we break out of this range . Well see. 0. 61 up. Europe up as a whole about 5 . It was up 9 yesterday. It ended the month in positive territory. It highlights the negativity we had coming into that opec deal which was rounded off with positive sentiment. Europe at this hour, manufacturing for november coming out at 53. 7. That was in line for forecasts. If you look at the individual country numbers, although none were blowout positives, it is a surprise to see europe trading so negatively. The euro higher off the back of the numbers. Were looking at half a percent on of declines at the moment. For the month as a whole, we saw the dak is down a little bit. French index a half percent. Ftse 100, down 0. 64 . Lets have a look at asian trade, two separate surveys coming out and topping expectations. We have gains across the region this morning as you can see. Shanghai up 0. 74 . Nikkei up 1. 1 . And whether there is a need for temporary capital control. It is driven by strength of the dollar as opposed to domestic weakness. Another thing to keep an eye on. Repeated stories the last couple of weeks about that as we know the markets stabilize. The strength in the nikkei is now at a 2016 high after another 2 move in dollar yen yesterday. Stronger dollar, weaker japanese yen. Nikkei outperforming. Lets show you what the dollar is doing now. Taking a pause after a big move up in dollar yen yesterday. Still above 114. The europe is 1. 0626. The broader dollar index had three days in a row of declines. It was down yesterday. Yes, we have had the great strong runs in the course of november. As a whole up 3. 2 . Now three days in a row of general dollar profit taking. Perhaps it shows a sign that december may not be more of the same. Or we will have to see if we get clues from economic data. Were coming off a string of decent data. Yesterday we got private sector jobs better than expected. Income numbers better. Chicago pmi. The beige book referenced across the regional economies. This on on top of the idea were seeing a pro growth agenda for the first time in a long time. Add it all up, and you could be looking at, as Rick Santelli says really, sustained period of growth in this economy. Getting out of this 2 funk. We get a good gdp number and then it goes back. This could boost, as indicated by the two money men, the commerce secretary and treasury secretary, the story of the week. Either way, the dollar ending the month with three days in a row declines just changing the direction a little bit at the margin. And gold suffered as a result of that. It has a weak month. Worst in several years. Now, to todays economic agenda. Jobs and manufacturing are in focus. 8 30 a. M. Eastern, followed by ism Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending at 10 00. Look for results from Dollar General before the open and workday and smith wesson after the close. The nations automakers will roll out. Three things to watch in those numbers. Go look at the Auto Industry with november car sales data. Heres what you want to watch in the report. First are the numbers. Yearend deals are helping but cant quite offset the retail demand softening in november compared to last year. They will report about 17. 7 Million Units in november, which is up by a seasonally adjusted 2. 7 year over year. But it is down slightly from 18. 3 units sold in october. Industry analysts are more upbeat now that the president ial election is over. Shoppers have more confidence, giving them extra motivation to make the big ticket purchases. The third thing to watch, edmonds expect 8. 4 in november. Toyota up 4. 4 . Guys, back over to you. Landon, thank you. In political news, president elect donald trump is taking a victory lap today. He will kick off a thank you tour, visiting cincinnati, ohio, and indianapolis, indiana. Donald trump will kick off his midwest tour at the carrier plant in indianapolis, where he is expected to tout that deal to keep 1,000 jobs from moving to mexico. United technologies, which owns carrier, says it is is receiving financial incentives and pledge from the Incoming Administration create a more of a business environment. It was on local news but not on National News at that point except for cnbc. That was before i had gotten most of the information about what i knew about the carrier deal. Our thanks to robert, carrier employee. That deal will save half of the 2,100 jobs United Technology said it would cut by closing two indiana plants. I wonder if we are going to see more of this. Carrier was bashed. He picks up the phone, or at least Vice President electmike pence, picks up the phone, saves the jobs. Its a huge victory for donald trump. And a sign that he is paying attention wants to make good on some of his campaign promises. It does seem like a big victory. I wonder how much had to be given back in to achieve it. This is 1,000 jobs. It is not a game changerment its a symbol. It is a symbol. He is promoting people on wall street to significant positions having bashed them during the election campaign. It highlights how different of a style this administration is going to be. You have a businessman in charge. And making individual deals is what he campaigned on. This could be his first big deal. It could be. President and chief operating officer gary cohn is considering meeting the firm. He met with president elect trump this week. He could be a contend tore head office of management and budget. This is pretty interesting, sarah. We have had quite a few executive changes from goldman. The cohead Michael Sherwood as well. If we see gary coo that is a lot of heads decide to go move on, whether its the taking of the jobs or in fact, getting pushed aside. It is pretty interesting. Doesnt seem like investors mind. They added 50 points to the dow all by itself yesterday. It is getting a lot of power in terms of this white house. Steve bannon used to work as chief adviser for trump. Mnuchin. I guess it has been a long enough time since the financial crisis and the days when it was the vampire squid. A lot of talk if he were to leave, they would split residency roles and give it to two people. I know youll be watching that one. I certainly will. President elect picks for treasury secretary steven nnuchin. He said expect the largest tax change since reagan. Our most Important Program is to sustain economic growth. I think we can get to the sustained 3 to 4 gdp. To get there, our number one priority is tax reform. This will be the largest tax change since reagan. Weve talked about this during campaign. Wilbur and i worked closely. We will cut corporate taxes, which will bring jobs back to the united states. Here is usa today. Largest tax change since middle cuts. He said whatever cuts for the wealthy will be offset by eliminating some of the tax deductions. Unclear whether the math adds up to that one. We have had so much talk about whether these come out. It was great to the get meat on the bones. And a clear target. 15 . If they can get that. A lot say it will be somewhere in a compromised range. But still were at 35 right now, one of the highest in the world. The other thing to pick up the usa today which i liked on the front cover. Underneath his picture was how to pronounce his name. I hope i get it right from now on. Cabinet choices embrace wall street elite at odds with populism. On that front, he also talked about doddfrank and lending. The number one problem with doddfrank is is its way too comp can indicated, and it cuts back lending. So we want to strip back parts of doddfrank that prevent banks from lending. That will be the number one priority. He did say number one priority to a number of things. And he said the volcker rule was too complicated. It will definitely be applauded and celebrated by the banks. We dont have specific policies yet. Incident was definitely coming through with some of the optimism we have seen. Especially the regionals. Jeff solomon told us yesterday that really would bode well for them. Because the lending is their bread and butter. If they strip down doddfrank, that has been hurting them. The banks were up yesterday. Still to come, president elect tru trump, what his picture for treasury secretary said about that. Generosity is its oyou can handle being a mom for half an hour. Im in all the way. Is that understood . I dont know what shes up to, but its not good. Cant the world be my noodles and butter . Get your mind out of the gutter. Mornings are for coffee and contemplation. That was a really profound observation. You got a mean case of the detox blues. Dont start a war you know youre going to lose. Finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. On xfinity x1. Welcome back and good morning. If you look back at both of us in the u. S. Trade representative, this will be a coordinated aspect. So there is especially forcement aspects of trade in commerce is and treasury. If we determine we need to label them as a currency manipulator, thats something the treasury would do. Noncommittal, but did not rule it out. Eunice. Reporter good morning. There is a theory one of the reasons why they are taking such strong action is because of concerns about the Trump Administration and being labeled a currency manipulator. The big news here today was the Chinese Government pledged to tighten oversight of offshore investments by stateowned companies. And the reason why it has been getting so much attention, it runs counter to what beijing has been saying about trying to encourage its companies to go out and become global players. Outbound investment is around 530 billion. This new priority seems to really take a back seat to this new priority of the government to stabilize the redman b. Central Bank Researchers described this as a destructive feedback loop. They are worried it will weaken, more people take their money out, then it weakens again. One of the reasons we are hearing is because of what you were just indicating. That there is a belief that beijing might be worried about the Trump Administration. That it is handing ammunition to the Trump Administration in the form of a weaker yuan. Because of their concern, they want to make sure it takes stability over everything else. Why is this such a big risk . Investors everywhere are spooked by. I get it if its a myth and they are not manipulating its currency. But if they do label it so, what happens next. They dont want to be labeled a currency inspector. It does lead to congress having to take some sort of action. And the concern, especially among the business community, that could lead to a retaliation on the part of beijing. In terms of why beijing is worried about this weakness, the whole idea of a negative cycle that the yuan is continuously weakening. The pressure is for it to continue to weaken. There have been so many people who were trying to get their money out. I was talking with a chinese Property Developer over the weekend, restrictions make it so much more difficult to get their money out of the country. They dont know exactly what to do with it. Instead, it just creates a lot of uncertainty about what they need to be doing with their own money. Thank you very much on the china story with beijing. The last sometime they designated, 1994 under bill clinton. Obviously china has made a lot of effort on reform since then. It would trigger treasury kicking off a series of rules and criteria china needs to meet stpwhrfplt that aspect and the possibility of tariffs are factors everyone think on the face of it that trumps election is bad for china. But there are other sides of the argument. The fact that tpp is not going to happen. That is a big benefit to china. They dont want the u. S. Overreaching in their eyes, control of southeast asia. So tpp helps them. And it gives them the chance. They are a lot more powerful than they were in 1994. And the real thing they want is a good bilateral conversation that is practical which donald trump said more broadly is the kind of thing he is going to pursue. There are potential negatives. It is not universal that president elect trumps victory is bad for china. Theres ways it could be a benefit for them as well. Stocks to watch, plus Major League Baseball avoiding awe walkout. Welcome back and good morning. Lets get you up to speed. The first trading day of december. And dow futures are higher by 25 points in the early action. S p barely negative. And nasdaq a bit negative as well. On this first day of the month, heres how markets closed out a blockbuster month of november. The dow finished higher 5. 4 . S p up 3. 4 . And the nasdaq finishing higher by 2. 6 . It really under performed yesterday. The biggest winner of the four major averages is russell 2000 finishing with a gain of nearly 11 . A lot of optimism there. The domestic economy will turn higher under president trump, Infrastructure Spending. A lot of things trump had been talking about. And we get confirmation from his treasury picks yesterday on our air helping it come to life. It wasnt just in terms of market cap. It was on sector perspective as well. The financials very much the best, 13. 7 . Utilities, the worst, down just over 3 . Again, it is is very much high beater. What is geared to a u. S. Domestic recovery. And higher yields. The benefits of the steeper yields. The biggest selloff for treasuries in the month of november. Stocks to watch today. Box is raising its full year outlook up 1 . Gass Third Quarter results. Guess is cutting its Fourth Quarter guidance down 13 . Pvh Fourth Quarter goings is below analysts estimate thes. On cnbcs mad moneyy, Emmanuel Chirico said going into black friday he saw significant increases in the retail business. We are being conservative as we project every year and the balance of this quarter. The trends right now are running ahead of plan. Now to sports. Major League Baseball avoided a lockout. Owners and players reaching a deal on a new collective bargaining agreement. The fiveyear deal came hours before their previous contract was said to expire. Baseballs revenues approaching 10 billion a year. Both sides were motivated to avoid the first work stoppage since 1994. Tiger woods returns to pro golf today in his first tournament in more than a year. He is playing at the hero world challenge in the abobajabout ba. They are hoping for a comeback. The bulls heading to disease on a hot streak. Well be right back. Ar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. With it, i earn unlimited 2 cash back on all of my purchasing. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Which adds fuel to my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Good morning and welcome back to worldwide exchange. Im sara eisen. Very good morning to you from me as well. We are throwing it back with songs forbes list of the highest paid musicians of 2016. Beyonce and jayz. 107. 5 million. First trading day. A strong month for stocks. Santa claus rally. Did he steal christmas . Dont say that. Nasdaq turning positive. And the s p. Just going positive there after a banner month for stocks i think it is my voice that keeps it positive. The russell 2000 outperforming all three. Up 11 for the month. As for the early action, lets show you where we are trading. Energy outperforming on the back of another rise in crude oil after yesterdays major jump in the price of oil. Italy flat ahead of the referendum. Japan continues to be the star performer. Shanghai and hong kong finishing higher. Shanghai up. 75 . Oil prices. 9 gain yesterday. As some form of opec deal was confirmed. 49. 9. Shy of 50 this morning. Worth pointing out for the month as a whole, wti gained 5. 5 , highlighting that the all the gains came from yesterdays move. We had been soft ahead of the 9 gain yesterday. Lets have a look at the 10year treasury. Back 2. 4 . The yield slipped back to 2. 34 range. Again, were ending the week with bond prices rising. 3. 2 . A strong dollar month for november. The final three trading sessions did see dollar declines against the broad index, down a third of 1 . This morning, as you can see, were seeing a little bit more dollar weakness. The euro high. The dollar a bit softer against the yen. The pound stronger half a percent. Another busy day on wall street or jobless claims. That will be followed by Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending at 10 00 a. M. More receipt ta mester and rob kaplan speaking today. Look out for results from Dollar General before the opening bell and workday and smith wesson, gunmaker, after the close. President elect trump is taking a victory lap today he will kick off a thank you tour visiting cincinnati, ohio, and indianapolis, indiana. So hes in my hometown. Cincinnati went for clinton. But so many of the surrounding counties and suburbs went strongly for trump. Ohio was a big win for him. How is mr. Kasich feeling . Very quiet. He played what turned out very run. And remind me of the ice cre cream. Graeters. And a deal of 1,000 jobs saved from going to mexico. The deal will save half the jobs that United Technologies said it could close earlier this year by closing two indiana plants. Goldman sachs president and chief operating officer reportedly thinking of leaving the job. He has been seen as the most likely successor to goldman ceo lloyd blankfein. He would be the third Goldman Sachs alum. Bannon, mnuchin. This will be big news if he leaves. People saying they might split two. Or maybe he will stay another four years. Changes in the bank not as important as changes management. Top performer on the dow. Heres what president elect Donald Trumps pick for treasury is secretary said yesterday on squawk box and his expectations for Interest Rates. I think Interest Rates will stay relatively low for the next couple of years. Were in a period of time of low Interest Rates. I think stay there. They have come up a little bit, which i think makes sense. We will look at all different types of opportunities, maturing the debt. Again, we will have higher Interest Rates. That is something this country is going to need to deal with. A muted vote of confidence for janet yellen. Shes been doing a good job. Didnt go further than that. It was a curt answer. Im sure they will have a big influence on that tomic. And voting for ongoing lower rates. In a way we didnt see on the campaign trail. It raises the question how quickly if they dont choose the next appointee will we see rates go up, given they have already soared without a hike. He is speaking so openly, candidly about the playbook. This is not jack lew. They dont seem to mind. Everyone is okay with it. It is certainly a paradigm shift in terms of Economic Policymakers in washington. We will see if this kind of openness continues. Were nearly back to where this interview happened yesterday and still talk building it. It is is in all the research. Extraordinary output from them on the day they got confirmed. Really open thoughts on the economy. How should investors position their portfolios given a Trump Administration since we have been learning more about that . Sounds like youre a little skeptical, how far they have moved on the trump policies. I am, sarah. Good morning. It seems stocks have had a good rally in anticipation of wonderful things promised. Were hearing all of these great things from the markets about lower taxes, fewer regulations, that were going to have great Infrastructure Spending is and all of these things. And markets are hearing largely i think what they want to hear. Theyre trading up as they price these wonderful things in. Theyre a year ahead of things actually getting enacted. The treasury broke through the 2. 38 up to 2. 4 . The dollar, wilfred you said was up. We have done regression analysis that says it will trend up to 90 basis points off perspective gdp. Probably the month of december. Certainly january going forward. So there are real head winds with the high Interest Rates. Oil at 49. Wow. So this is bull market psychology. Were ignoring the bad news and embracing the good news and its a party. Did we not see meat on the bones . We saw two major picks in terms of Economic Policy coming through and saying these are the policies were going to deliver. We did. And everything still looks great for these policies to come about. But im coming to you this morning from washington, d. C. I was born here. Ive watched these guys in government a long time. The tea party part of the Republican Party doesnt get along with the other part of the Republican Party. The idea that we are going to get things through in small fashion. It could set markets back. Im cautioning that perhaps you better know what you own. When the music stops, you really want to have a chair. It could be expensive to be on the sidelines right now. You could be missing out on what has been an astounding rally. Which parts of the market will you look at . Transports outperform. A lot of bullish signals. I dont think, sarah you can market time so you do have to the stay invested. It is is very important to know what you own and make sure the Balance Sheets are there i think the banks and financials of course have done very well. The banks by book values continue to be cheap and rising Interest Rate environment should do very well. I would also look at some of the things perhaps that have again hit and knocked back. Like some of the medical device companies. With some sort of reform on the Affordable Care act, a lot of the Health Care Companies have gotten hammered a bit. There is some opportunity there too. Theyre not going to go away if you find things that have gone to excess. The industrial stocks continue to be strong and look as if theyre going to benefit from a resurgence in defense spending. Michael, well leave it there. Thank you for talking through the caution and the sectors. Thanks. Todays top trending stories, the Holiday Season off to a big kickoff. You didnt even tell me that was happening yesterday. You can go see it. I wanted to be there for the lighting of it. It is is very busy. The annual lighting of the Rockefeller Center christmas tree. Have a look. Five, four, three, two, one. Go some of our nbc colleagues and the mayor of new york bill de blasio. 94foot norway spruce was cut down in upstate new york. Workers spent weeks streaming five miles of lights around that thing. The switch was flipped in front of thousands who came to watch in person. Millions more on television at holy. A number of special guests performed. Neil diamond, trisha yearwood. Brooks and yearwood with president and first lady kelly clarks son and james taylor for the lighting of the National Christmas tee. It is is still dark outside because were on early. You can see how beautiful. I notice it lights every morning at 5 30 a. M. So we can only do a live shot in the second half of our show. We could do it live. I dont think it will be just as dramatic. We could play garth brooks. We could. Or other music we love. Happy christmas. Can i say that . Yeah, its december. In your Favorite College Team isnt playing in a championship, fox sports is giving another reason to watch. Fox sports will have go pro. Sit part of a deal between fox sports labs and go pro. They are offering a new video experience. That is pretty exciting stuff. I mean, look at that. Front row in the action. It is almost not quite front row. If they had it on the quarterback or running back. That would be dangerous. Why . Because they tackle each other. So. Theyre small and wearing protection. Im going to watch that. Its exciting. Chocolate might be getting healthy. Nestle found a way to reduce sugar in chocolate by 40 . The new process alters the structure of the sugar to keep e same taste with less sugar. They said the new sugar would be introduced in 2018. Plans to release more details in the coming years. I can tell you by covering these packaged goods companies, if this works, this is the holy grail of what people have been trying to do. How to cut the sugar but make it just as sweet. Beverage companies have been working on it as well. I dont buy it. I bet you wouldnt know the difference. Its like low fat butter. Either have it or dont have it. Low fat chocolate. Well do taste test in 2018. Done. Ill get it right either way. As we head to break, check out these numbers for returns in november. Blowout for the russ is sell 2000. Up 5 . Dow up 5 . Were back in a couple minutes. X this is a great summary of all the complicated issues going on in the middle east at the moment. The tightrope that any president will have to walk and really saying if he wants to think that he can pull back and focus domestically, hes got another thing coming. This is important. And will have to be active. That is one of the questions in policy as we get more information on domestic and economic policies. Still dont know secretary of state, secretary of defense. Big appointments to come. My pick is from the wall street journal. Basically scoring and grading what we got from that spintervi that we got with mnuchin and ross. The trumps money men, the wall street journal calls them. Positive on pro growth but critical on the trade argument that a trade deficit is bad. Heres the bottom line according to the ed board. The irony is that if mr. Trump does succeed in unleashing faster growth, the u. S. Demand for imports will increase as capital returns to the u. S. , the trade deficit will also grow. The race is on to see if mr. Trumps policies can create jobs for the president elect to realize trade deficits dont really matter. I agree. It is a good point. Especially after wilbur rosss claim that trade deficits hurt growth. Thats not true. It is strong imports. Most of the other policy outlined, rolling back parts of doddfrank. And it is what many of us were saying during the campaign trail. In op eds it was outright trade deficits were bad. Clearly you cant just scrub out all trade deficits. You would have to scrub out all trade surfaces. So i dont think he believes that. I think it was more campaign rhetoric. Commerce does sort of tackle trade. Absolutely. Either way, as you say, overall the conclusion very much positive on both of them together. Still to come, president elect pick steve mnuchin. 3 to 4 sustained gdp. We will ask Michael Gapen what he thinks. Welcome back. Yesterday Steven Mnuchin said 3 to 4 approximate growth was achievable every year for the next presidency. Do you agree . No. I think that is a pretty tall order. Specifically talking about trend growth. Thats nearly impossible. Population growth, labor force will get you a half a percent. So you would be talk threeish or so growth. You could get absolute rates of growth a little bit higher, 3 , perhaps a little better. That would be achievable. But probably only in the short run a fiscal stimulus coming at a time when the u. S. Economy is already at full employment. So most of us think the multiplier would be less than one. So it would help. But getting 3 to 4 for four years is a tall order. So what would you say, michael, is the message of the pretty stark turnaround in u. S. Government debt we saw with a 10year yield sitting the 241 . I think what markets are doing is theyre looking at the slate of policies interest saying, were only going to get the good stuff. We will get the fiscal policy expansion, d regulation or some positive reregulation and ignoring all the financial pitfalls on trade or reorganization of health care. I think were looking at the glass definitely half full on this one. So markets are taking a positive spin. That may be the right way to do it. But well have to wait and see what the policy outturn is. Could it be less than half full . Will high rates, high dollar lead us into a recession again, for example . These are possible combined with antibiotictrade rhetoric. It had a bigger impact. Fiscal stimulus came later and wasnt as large. That possibility is is still on the table. Markets are largely discounting that type of outcome we will see. Thats the second. Thank you for joining us. Thank you. Bob pisani points on out stock market, 17 times earnings expectations of next year. Theyre getting high. High expectations. Well have to see. Squawk box comes next. Russell 2000 up close to 11 . Quite a stunning gam