Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20130503

loomus of "fortune." we caught up with him last night. last night when we caught up with him, we got to talk about everything from jobs to jpmorgan, ibm and even twitter. buffett sent his very first tweet yesterday afternoon from an account that was finally created. i think there was something like 27 bank accounts out there. the real one has been verified. it's @warrenbuffett. he only has one tweet and we'll talk about that a little later. then we'll speak with denyis knautz and jeff pederson. also coming up, we have john rogers. he's the chairman and ceo of ari investments. later in the next hour, we have a debate between a berkshire bull and a bear. mario gabelli and short seller doug kass. they're going to go head to head. first, back to you for the top headlines. >> becky, i'm going to be out there a little later. i tried to tweet warren back and welcome him to twitter, but then he didn't respond. so i was just worried -- >> he sent one tweet and i wouldn't expect him to be incredibly active on this. >> but i don't remember war within an iphone or a -- is he going to have a device where he's going to be tweeting from wherever he is? >> i'll let you in on a secret. i don't think he did a lot of this himself. it was all set up and k handed to him. all he did was hit a button for it to go out. so, again, this is a guy who doesn't have an e-mail address. i don't know how active of a twitterer he's going to be. but i think he sees it as a great form of distribution and a way of reaching a lot of people. >> you know, the back drop is really pleasant to look at. >> you like it? >> yeah. you look really nice there. the lighting is good. but the blue background -- >> thank you. >> it's very flattering for you. >> thank you. >> in case john rogers is watching -- >> oh, did we have the wrong screen? >> john rogers doesn't look like that. he was a long way from john rogers. >> we know our john rogers of aerial investments. sorry if we had the wrong picture there. we know who he is. >> it's a pretty common name. >> you have a great show today. i want to hear from doug kass, as well. he's the big bear on all this. >> he's the new addition to the panel this week. >> he watched the show, e-mailed us and -- >> the whole thing happened and i've had to read it. i had 15 e-mails a day that's -- it's the best thing that's ever, ever, ever happened to doug kass in his entire life and he's going to make it. anyway, good luck. we'll see. >> he could possibly have some good poin he's been short on the stock for a while. he's been writing a lot about it. >> is he just going to call when the market is up 10% from the lows. >> he did call a generational low. >> and then, negative again, every day i get a thing i'm still bearish for the last eight months. then the original one was up ten -- >> i think he's going to add a little bit of spice to the meeti meeti meeting. >> i missed the ross westgate and kelly evans things. what was that? she got flowers at the end. i don't know what was happening. >> that was not a commercial? >> no. i don't think so. maybe the part where they were at a restaurant. >> they were at a restaurant having dinner or lunch. there were flowers. >> either kelly just proposed to ross or ross proposed to kelly the. something is -- someone else is going on. >> no, no, no. i've met ross's wife. he's happily married. >> what do you think happened yesterday? i think people said -- >> never mind? >> they said, wow, the fed must be really worried and they said, wait a second, there could be more than 8el 5 billion? oh, forget it. >> you had the ecb jumping in, too. it's not just the fed. this is every central bank. >> i think people got rid of their fears that maybe it's worse than people thought and the fed is going to possibly do more. >> we'll be back with -- >> i was thinking about it and i thought maybe this was a situation kind of like saturday night live where it's like, oh, my gosh, this could be really bad news. >> yeah, right, right. andrew has looked better than he's ever looked with you gone. >> with her gone? >> maybe because she's not here you're looking good to me, i don't know, because there's no one else to look at. >> you've been looking at me. >> i have been, all morning. >> we could make our own commercial. >> i'm going to get you some flowers. >> it's a love fest. good-bye. >> is it mother's day on sunday? >> it is. not this sunday, it's the sunday -- >> not this sunday. >> you have a week to get organized. okay. but this is the kentucky derby. >> i believe that is true, as well. >> it is the kentucky derby. one really interesting thing about that is the kentucky derby, and that's a big deal because i think this is the biggest weekend with people coming here to the berkshire meeting and those going there, i think it's a tough weekend for them to get to all the places they need to be. >> i'm out. bye-bye. >> see you in a little bit. come on. you don't like people that a are -- that the compensation is that high. >> no, no, no, i love them. >> but it's not fair they're compensated that much? >> it's not fair. >> i don't think. you look at what a teacher versus a -- >> well, it's not fair. >> and it shouldn't be that way and we should have some laws to prevent it. okay. let's talk about the april jobs report. the release is coming at 8:30 eastern time. palmed economy fts say the economy likely added 148,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.6%. those are the numbers to beat. >> suppose they come down from that, andrew. we use the dow jones survey. there are other numbers that have come down a little bit. also, when we were referring to this earlier, an ecb policymaker now says the markets overinterpreted mario draghi's comments on negative deposit rates. ewald nowotny made the comments earlier. geoff will bring us more of his market moving conversation in about 20 minutes. and treasury secretary jack lew medicine with wall street and business executives last night. bob rubin and tim geithner are now. among the attendees, jamie dimon, paul swartzen. >> okay. secretary lew has been holding meetings with economists and academics to talk about the economy and washington policy. it's now time for the global markets report. kelly evans is standing by. maybe she gets a little bit of color. >> do you get flowers? what happened there? >> it's my last day in london, so yes, they offered some flowers for that. it was really, really sweet. so thanks. thank you. a reiterated thank you to the whole team. there were no marriage proposals, at least in that situation. >> fill us in. why is it your last day in london? >> you know, my visa expires and when that happens, you can't stay in the country. so i'm off to hong kong. i'll do a little bit of work there and say hi to bernie lowe. so you can catch us on air together next week. then kron, maybe i'll come around stateside after that. we'll see. >> okay. nebulous, but -- >> and i might carry on with the globe markets report. >> go ahead. you'll know when we know. >> it can track my movements around the globe. there we go. how about that? you mentioned the ecb earlier. and, in fact, we did see the euro jump on the back of that interview with nowotny. we are seeing a generally positive tone to stocks across the board. the ftse supported by shares of glenn core. rbs, guys, weighing on that index. its earnings did not meet market expectations. trading in particular was a weak spot. it will struggle to get out of the stinl digits. take a look at what's been happening in the bond space. here is where we're seeing a lot of reaction still from the ecb meeting yesterday. the spanish ten-year below 10% for the fist time in several years. the italian ten-year,ite been sitting there for quite some time. elsewhere, a bit of a flight out of bunch. still seeing yields at extremely low levels here. flip around and we'll show you what's happening on the forex side. the euro/dollar, up by 0.5%. really was a spike this morning. basically, lord nowotny, not necessarily the most dovish in the world. we don't want to overinterpret his comments. but anyway, he was basically saying look, the speculation of negative deposit rates are coming after draghi's comments yesterday is a little premature. the euro, knee jerk higher on the back of that. we're basically waiting, guys, on a jobs report today. maybe the general tone general positive tone and the sun outside is helping sentiment. back over to you. >> we're going to miss you, kelly. >> yeah. >> i'm hoping to see you -- >> we're going to miss this time together. i know you're devastated that i'll never be doing the global markets report again. >> i'm pretty sure we'll see her again. she has a future stateside, i think. i may know more than i'm -- >> letting on? i wouldn't do that if i were you. >> i'm not going to -- i would have to kill pup. >> joe, there's an opening in london. >> i love london. i do. i'm afraid of that eye, though. i see the eye and i get butterflies. i would never leave andrew. >> no, i wouldn't. >> couldn't do it to him. >> should we tell people now what we do in the morning when we see each other? i'll tell becky. back to becky in omaha for some of her conversation with warren buffett last night. people that are close kiss just on the cheek like al pachino, like an al pachino kiss. we haven't done it yet. we're thinking about it. let me take you to lunch first. then we might. >> okay. >> what's going on, beck? >> well, guys, we got the chance to catch one buffett yesterday. as we mentioned, we talked to him as he was on his way into his bridge club. we always like to talk to him about what he sees in the economy. he has a pretty good view of what's happening not only here in the u.s., but around the globe. the other thing we want to talk to him about is what he thought was going to happen with today's jobs number. he's been talking about the recovery that he had seen to a certain point. this time he didn't sound quite as optimistic. listen in on what he thinks will happen with that jobs report number that comes out later this morning. warren, what do you think about how things are going with the economy right now? we've got a jobs number coming out tomorrow. we've been paying pretty close attention. what do you think is going to happen? >> it's still the way it's been ever since the fall of 2009. creeping upward, every now and then looks a little more encouraging. every now and then a little less encouraging. it moves forward, but not at a rapid clip. >> i'm sorry, if you had to guess a number, what would you say tomorrow? i know you don't usually look at the numbers -- >> don't put any money on it because i don't know a thing about it, but business has not been improving at a rapid pace. so i do not think the number will be a high number. i'll put i it that way. >> so there you have it. he's taking the under, not the over on this week's, maybe not a surprise after what you've seen from adp, as well. every time we come to berkshire, it seems like there's a lot of news. yesterday he had a conversation about patti where he sees things headed and what he thinks needs to happen. as part of that, he did a live online conversation and sent out his very first tweet. it was hits first tweet followed up by his second tweet. i think the first one was warren is in the house. the second was a link to this article that warren has coming out. he says you can, in fact, tooed teach an old dog new tricks. we had that coming out and we saw a release after filings from the s.e.c. that showed berkshire has sold off about 6% of its stake in moody's. it's still the largest shareholder, has over a 12% stake. talked to him yesterday about what he was going to do with that. he was receipt sent to say anything more about what he was going to do next with it. but then we also have this big news that came this week where berkshire bought this remaining stake in this card. that's the iranian metal working company that it bought about six years ago, bought the initial stake in. yesterday we spoke with the chairman of iskar, he said it was a bittersweet moment. he is here this week along with his family. he says he really wants to focus on charity. he says some of the most interesting projects that he's been able to take on are trying to help countries figure out how to grow their gdp. more growth coming in t key to solving the biggest problems. here is his if a lol loss fee on that. >> people are fighting about how to share the case. i don't want to help people share the cake. every politician does it. i don't know how to do that. i want to groom bakers. why should you fight about one cake? make more. >> he talked about it and said they never focused on gdp when he was running iscar. he said they found on finding new customers and look for new solutiones and things that will make people want to become your customers. he talked about the lower and higher forms of all truism. he said teaching people to become productive members of society, doing everything you can to help them get there. yesterday we did get a chance to talk to warren about a few other things, jpmorgan. we'll talk a little bit more about moody's and ibm and we'll get to that later in the show. >> all right, becky. we're going to talk about the jobs number. check out drudge today. apparently in a lab in china, scientist ves decide it might be a funny idea to take the contagious swine flu, h1n1 .made a hybrid virus with the deadly bird flu, h5n1. >> what? oh, my gosh. i think i've seen this a couple of times in the movie pes. >> other scientists around the world are furious that they would put these two together, combines the leeth alty of the bird flu with the transmission mechanism of the highly contagious swine flu. >> are they out of their minds? did they not see i am legend? >> this is so scary. it goes between guinea pigs easily and it's lethal and they've created this thing. and, you know, one thing to think about, this is bad, but apparently by 2021, the oceans are going to start rising. >> from an immediacy perspective, this has -- >> a little more immediate. what was the movie that i just gave you? it was 24 weeks later or whatever it was. >> 28 weeks. >> same thing. it started out in a lab. >> if the people that die from the flu come back to life, then we've got a problem. just more than two hours, we're going to get the -- is this a zombie economy? kind of, i think. joining us from boston, al an sinai, on set bob bruska, chief economist at fao. bob, you've been really negative and i would say this adp number and the down grading, you would say probably wa? >> i'd say take that bird flu vir virus. the numbers that i would put the most emphasis on i'd more concerned about. i'm concerned about the weaker ism, the adp. >> and you went on a rant about a lot of this is self-inflicted. the government, it's not that they're not doing anything to help it, they're causing some of this. >> i'm concerned about that, yeah. the political leaders haven't spoken honestly to know what the problem is. we know that social security, medicare, medicaid are huge budget boosters in the future. the shared gdp are going up above historic norms and the president wants to spend some more money and they don't want to get their act together to cut future programs in anyway. how could we not be in a mess if we know we're headed for a car crash and wasn't do anything about it? >> allen, is the trend -- a lot of economists, i don't know how far back they go now and they go back like 24 months twices by 2 and they come up with like 174 had,000, which they say is not great, but a pretty good recovery. is that where you are? >> well, that's consistent with the kind of recovery that in extension we're having 2%, at most 3%en flagz terms for gdp. we're just not going to create that many jobs on average in our economy as far as the eye can see. we're substituting technology for people left and right. companies are keeping the expense line down. it's really positive on stocks, but not on the economy getting out of this rut. the rut is 2%, 2.5% inflation adjusted growth. >> wow, people that don't like income disparity and don't like the rich getting richer, so the stock market is going to continue to go up and basically we have like 10% unemployment in certain areas around the country, right? i mean, if you add the participation rate back in, this does not feel like an economy that is allowing everyone to go forward. >> yeah, yeah, that's right. look, companies are paid to maximize shareholder value. they go to great lengths to do that, including keeping head count down, including watching for those benefits. they keep the expense down, they substitute capital for people, new technology, all kinds of things. we see it in margins. the margin res great. so companies, the revenue growth is flat. the margins will stay great and the stock market prices earnings and interest rates. and interest rates, central banks around the world are going to keep on stepping on the gas because growth is disappointing and inflation is actually falling as a major country. so it's very positive for the stock market. and the economy chugs along. >> and i saw yesterday something about there are definitely sectors of the economy that can -- they employ part-time workers and they're going to 27 hours. and they're going to 27 hours very specifically so that they don't go over 30. huge sectors of the economy. and that's not including people going over 50 all with obama care. and januaridy is going to be on today and zandq why has pointed out that's a headwind, too. >> it's a problem when you run your program by telling sectors they to make certain expenditure owes their employees. >> it seemed like a good idea at the, cover everybody, everybody should be covered, it's a big expense. >> but the way you generate the tax revenue is important. when you generate the tax revenue, then you discourage firms to hire more employees. there's a lot of that going on. i think that needs a lot of rethinking. i just don't think that the politicians on either side of the aisle, i don't think they're paying attention to it. you look at the economy, it's performing very badly. the democrats are going after the democrats stuff. the republicans are going after the republican stuff. .up in of them are trying to get together. none of them say hey, this isn't working and that isn't working so let's get together and figure out something that will work. that's what they can't do spp. >> we have to keep it short. none of this might matter, allen, if this virus escapes from the lab over there. >> that is true. glad you pointed that out. >> is there a defense department that is doing that? who is doing that? >> they're trying to study the transmission mechanism. >> but why do it -- >> i don't know. murphy's law. i don't know what that is in china. we have to go to a commercial. but we're going to come back. still to come this morning, we have more from becky in home what. plus, an ecb policymaker taking our colleagues -- talking to our colleagues in europe and moving the currency markets in the process. we've got that interview and the euro's reaction right after the break. we oversee 20% of the world's financial assets. and that gives us scale and insight no one else has. investment management combined with investment servicing. bringing the power of investments to people's lives. invested in the world. bny mellon. nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is made at home. and where i can have exactly what i desire. ♪ nespresso. what else? welcome back to squawk. geoff cutmore is joining us now. >> hey, andrew. i know how you guys like fascinating facts. we're in bratislava in yugoslavia. this is where the man who invented the parachute is from. yesterday we saw the euro basically dropped out of the helicopter on a para chute, dramatic move down towards against the dollar. we talked to one of the governing council members today, ewald nowotny. he represents the australian central bank. he said the market has overinterpreted those comments and we saw a dramatic move back up on the euro. the markets overinterpreted this point. k, there's always some kind ooh a technical discussion about it, but there is no specific plan in that direction. i personally think this is something that one really has to analyze very carefully what would be the effects, side effects, psychological effects. so this is not something that -- of relevance in the immediate future. >> so clearly, they thought that they heard something from the press conference on thursday that now one of the council members appears to be moving back on. quite frankly, they gave the market the 25 basis point cut. they told the market they're going to remain accommodative. at this point, the market can take that as a clear signal that the ecb within its limited parameters, it is going to continue to give the market easing money. back to you guys. >> geoff cutmore, thank you. we are learning from the pros this morning, that legendary golf course designer reese jones and a group of investment experts -- and i use that term loosely. today we get some insight on risk and rewar from reese and dan greenhouse. a lot of times you can decide if you want to may it safe or take risks. on the institutional side of things, you get paid to take risks. the idea is outperformance and generating returns on a relative or options basis is paramount. for returns to be generated in any meaningful amount, you really do have to be in equities. and in retrospect over the last four years, that's obviously been the place to be. >> right. >> the question now for clients on a risk/return standpoint is what about the next four years? there's a lot of risk/reward. we move this from next over here before the 1985 u.s. amateur. and the way the ball is going off the club head, joe just hit a fantastic shot, the safe route, but good players can play over this tree. they can play less of the tree and has nothing left for the green. >> what's the biggest risk facing all investors right now? >> in 100% of needings that we have, there is a discussion about the federal reserve strategists about the timing of paper. and the management purchases of the speed of which they'll drain reserves and sell bonds into the system, it is a universal concern among investors. and the truth of the matter is nobody has any idea exactly what that timeline or sequence is going to look like. >> nice, nice, look at that. >> investment conditions change and the marketplace this time of year, the greens are slower. later they're fast and late summer they'll get slow again. >> in history, i don't think that you have ever in to measure risk at zero interest rates for so long. >> what the federal reserve has done over the last several years is reduce the amount of risk you need to factor in. so to some degree, if you think about portfolio construction through the rimp of expected returns, you have to put your suspected returned somewhat upward because low interest rates are giving you that rebound. >> definitely real hair. you have to do this. >> i am doing this. next week, we're playing thursday. it will be intarsing for me, but it is going to be -- it might be good for the audience. >> i'm going to be in the editing room, too, so we put in some of the really good -- >> bloopers. it will all be bloopers. if there's one shot that's good, at all be the anomaly. we'll sew how it goes. coming up, we're going to head back to becky in home whom. stay tuned for that and a lot more. cer ] there's one thing dave's always wanted to do when he retires -- keep working, but for himself. so as his financial advisor, i took a look at everything he has. the 401(k). insurance policies. even money he's invested elsewhere. we're building a retirement plan to help him launch a second career. dave's flight school. go dave. when people talk, great things can happen. so start a conversation with an advisor who's fully invested in you. wells fargo advisors. together we'll go far. this is america. we don't let frequent heartburn come between us and what we love. so if you're one of them people who gets heartburn and then treats day after day... block the acid with prilosec otc and don't get heartburn in the first place! 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[ groans ] ♪ ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ tomorrow, tuns of houses of the berkshire hathaway faithful will be filling this arena. our guest of the hour run some of the companies's businesses. gentlemen, thank you so much for being here. >> thank you. >> i'm so glad because you two are here. warren, a lot of times what we sit down with him, what we want to know is wa he's seeing in the economy. and he points to you two a lot of times for what he's really seeing. you know, dennis, just about every time we sit down with him and ask him about housing, he's saying, here is what we know from acme brick. what are you seeing right now the terms of how the economy is going and how much demand there is for brick. >> you have to think about the fact that the housing industry went through the greatest collapse it's ever seen since world war ii. starting in the fourth quarter last year, we finally saw some improvement in our sales volumes. sales went up about 16% year over year. and that followed through in the first quarter of this year. so we're starting to see some improvement finally after four or five years of collapse. but -- >> is that comes with it, right? >> it's not consistent all across our markets. we're a regional company. we're basically in the southeast and southwest. and looking at our sales numbers, our sales in the first quarterer were up 119% in texas, but everything else they were down 3%. so it's really.consistent from market to market. >> and when you're looking at the sales that are coming in, you mentioned that this is after a big crash. because we su the same thing in the case-shiller numbers. they were up something like 20%. but it's still 30% below where it was back in 2007. is that similar to the type of trends you're seeing? >> yes. you take a look. housing starts since world war ii can afternoon between 1.5 million to 1.4 million units year after year after year. we went 62 years and the worst year we ever had was about a million starts. >> wow. >> starting in 2008, we've now gone five years in a row why every year housing starts were below a million units. >> i hadn't heard knit that perspective before. so we got crushed worse than we realized. >> we really did. last year, they shipped 3.1 billion. our industry has seen a 66% collapse in total sales. >> and it sounds -- i mean, it's frightening when you say texas was up but everybody else was down 3%. so we think we're in this recovery, but it's not even sticking. we can't even recall necessarily the bottom at this point? >> i think we can call a bottom. i really do. but drilling into the numbers a little closer to see what's happening so far in the fist quarter of this year, while texas is good in the southeast and southwest in our markets, we've seen a lot of recovery in housing activity in minneapolis, in denver, in kansas city, initially texas, oklahoma and maybe the panhandle of florida. and that's probably 80% of the recovery we've seen in housing starts, just those six areas. >> wow. >> that leaves the rest of the southeast and the southwest really struggling. >> so that does put it in great perspective for us. jeff, court is a 200 billion business. for those that aren't familiar with it, when businesses need furniture, you come in and supply it for them. if an executive needs furniture for a move, you provide furniture there, too? >> yes. sales of more like 400 million. we're aspiring. >> you guys are -- when you are looking at these, you can tell us a pretty good idea of what's happening, especially in the business industries. what's demand? >> definitely want we cross over to b to b and business consumer. i will tell you up until about may or june of the last year, we were pretty bullish. we were seeing what we were expecting and especially as it pertained to the multi-family housing sector, which we do a lot of business with. but come june, early july of last year, it really became pretty anemic. >> what do you think happened? >> well, i think there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty regardless of the sector. and, you know, we're rooting for dennis and housing starts because a lot of what we do depends on companies relocating employees. >> that's interesting. that has been a big part of the problem with people under water in their homes. it has kept beam from being able to move. >> historically, companies bought homes from people in that situation. companies don't purchase homes on a relocation. so we have adapted quite a bit to assignment management and project management. but clearly, when we get to the point where we're -- we're seeing the real estate market come back, our business gets much better. >> so if you had to look regionally, do you see the same sorts of trends that have strength in some areas and weakness in others or is this an industry wide issue because of the fact that people can't move around. >> the midwest never really collapsed the way that the coast did when we were hit in 2008, 2009. and both coasts are pretty strong right now for us. you know, flat being the new up. >> right. >> so we're encouraged by that. you know, my coanchor, joe, has a question, i believe, for you. joe, go ahead. >> becky, when you have acme brick, you can imagine where i'm going. it's not important. it's trivial. but, dennis, you know, i have a brick, an acme brick. and i was thinking, acme brick, how did you guys come one that name? that's the best -- and then i looked. it's rich in history, 1890, really, in texas whit was first called acme something or other. and i wondered because what does acme mean? it's the point at this something is the best or perfect or most successful. and i just wanted to let you know my brick that i have is perfect. it is a perfect -- it's hard, it's -- >> it was warren buffett's signature on it. >> but i'm talking about the dimensions, squareness, how hard it is. it hasn't come a long way over the years, but it couldn't be any more perfect. i don't know if i've ever told you that. >> it sits on his desk he day. he hasn't thrown it at me yet. >> i haven't. it is a perfect brick. so that's my only comment. >> keep on keeping on. >> i remember when we sent those bricks up to you and becky and you were questioning whether there was really an acme brick company. certainly we've been around since 1891, 122 years. and you're right, a lot of people do ask me about the name acme and acme is a real word which means the best, the pinnacle. >> i didn't know that. that was the genesis of our company's name in 1891. >> there's no way you can improve this brick, becky. that's why it's called acme, because it is perfect. >> that's all. i have nothing of value to add to this. >> jeff, what does court mean? >> court is about 45 years old and you actually have someone on staff who their name actually was how the name court was -- as it goes back, i guess there was a big discussion about when the company was being formed and -- >> and the guy said, hey, that should be named after me. >> or a portion of the name and it stuck. and it stuck. >> gentlemen, i want to thank you both for being with us today. i know you have a big day ahead of you. thanks for getting up with it. >> thank you. when we come back, we're going to check on the nation's health care. we're going to talk about washington policy and much more with the ceo of cigna. monday, tune into squawk, we'll be sitting down with warren buffett live for three hours. we'll get his first comments after the weekend's shareholder meeting. we'll be right back. ♪ roomba, roomba ♪ roomba, roomba ♪ roomba, roomba ♪ got a robot vacuum ♪ cleaning up my life ♪ and it's gonna cut through ♪ filth and funk ♪ just like a knife ♪ dirt won't come back again ♪ thanks to ♪ my brand new friend ♪ got a robot vacuum ♪ cleaning up my life a confident retirement. those dreams have taken a beating lately. but no way we're going to let them die. ♪ ameriprise advisors can help keep your dreams alive like they helped millions of others. by listening. planning. working one on one. that's what ameriprise financial does. and that's what they can do with you. that's how ameriprise puts more within reach. ♪ that'trust your instinctss more to make the call. to treat my low testosterone, my doctor and i went with axiron, the only underarm low t treatment. axiron can restore t levels to normal in about 2 weeks in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or breast cancer. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur. report these symptoms to your doctor. tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. serious side effects could include increased risk of prostate cancer; worsening prostate symptoms; decreased sperm count; ankle, feet or body swelling; enlarged or painful breasts; problems breathing while sleeping; and blood clots in the legs. common side effects include skin redness or irritation where applied, increased red blood cell count, headache, diarrhea, vomiting, and increase in psa. ask your doctor about the only underarm low t treatment, axiron. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world. nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is made at home. and where i can have exactly what i desire. ♪ nespresso. what else? welcome back to "squawk box". we're talking health care with cigna's president and ceo. good morning. >> good morning. good to be with you. >> did you very well this quarter. beat pretty much across the board. one of the things i noticed, and this is true you both of your company and many of the health care firms. there was a low utilization rate this past quarter. what's going on? >> from our company, 85% is self funded or we provide services for employers. when we see favorable medical costs it flows through to the employers. i think what cigna is seeing is we have more programs than ever lining the incentives both with individuals and physicians to improve health. we're continue to go see more efficiency come through while you're getting more preventive care. maybe we're starting to get to a new normal, or a better, more sustainable outcome here. >> you just met with the president on obama care. "the wall street journal" had an op ed or editorial saying insurers are warning the premiums for individuals in small markets specifically will be going through the roof. what are you guys doing and what are you seeing happening? >> the conversation was really around a status check about where the implementation is around the exchanges and the kphaoeplt from both parties to work together. make no doubt bit. it's a significant lift for even in the country. state level, federal level and insurers. secondly, the key is to folk news key markets and help to get the awareness up relative to new programs and services. third, making sure to work with the federal agencies there's enough flexibility to get the right services and programs in place that will work not just for 2014 but on a sustainable basis. >> but, david, i'm looking at numbers here. in california, for example, and these are some competitors, blue cross is up 26%. aetna 22%. blue shield up 20%. in maryland, care first, their largest insurers, has proposed 25% increases across the board. >> a couple points. cigna's historically not played in the smaller individual market. these are new markets for us to enter into. i think what you're seeing broadly as we step into 2014 is a couple points. one, the health care law puts in place a base benefit level. in many cases that base benefit level is higher than the benefits that the under 50 life employers are buying today. there's an acceleration in cost but there's more coverage that take place. two, medical costs are going up on a year over year basis because of the costs of hospitals and physicians. >> everyone just announced they had such low utilization and yet the premiums continue to go up. >> andrew, two different points there. take the biggest driver relative to small employers as a higher level of benefit coverage on the essential benefits. for cigna, put that in context, we had a 6% medical cost trend year over year which was at the low industry range. for last year, 2012, we had 5% of increase, which was at the lowest end of the industry training. the good news is that flows directly to them in a positive way and helps to make a more affordable and controllable cost outcome, which is really what we're focused on. >> i hope you're right about that. i worry about these costs. we will see where it's all going. >> it's good to be with you today. >> really talking about small businesses. >> coming up, much more from becky in omaha. she'll be joined by two long-time is investors and one berkshire bear. 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[ female announcer ] when people talk, great things can happen. so start a conversation with an advisor who's fully invested in you. wells fargo advisors. together we'll go far. jobs or the lack thereof. focus better than expected jobless claims giving the markets a boost yesterday. can we expect more of the same when we get the government's read on the nation's workforce? we preview today's report. live from omaha in the berkshire hathaway meeting. long-time pwerb shire fan. and the run for the roses. the most exciting two minutes in sports. who to watch and who may be a sleeper. on your mark, get set, squawk. it's friday, the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk" here on cnbc. becky quick, she's in omaha this morning getting ready for this weekend's big berkshire annual shareholder meeting. she will bring us special guests all morning. before we get to her, ahead of the april jobs report, look at the futures right now. we have red arrows. of course all of that may change. we have two other economic reports this morning that are worth talking about. though they will no doubt be overshadowed by the jobs report. supply and management is out with its monthly nonmeasuring index. and march factory orders. both coming out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. government investigators are choosing jpmorgan chase of manipulating energy trade anything california. and the schemes were carried out in houston. and masters seems to be caught up in all of that. the defense department has cleared blackberry and samsung for use on its networks. this is a key step not only for the companies involved but to create a more creative environment among vendors. apple's ios devices are expected to be cleared sometime this month. >> you know, my single focus on is the virus. >> the virus in china. >> did you know about this? >> only from "squawk box". >> they are trying to put the two together. >> they've done it. >> why? >> they were trying to study the transmission mechanism of the highly contagious swine flu. i don't know why you would put the bird flu in there. it's lethal. like i said, not going to matter -- >> sea levels will rise, you wipe out the bird flu. >> we have to worry about 2100. write that on your calendar. >> do you have a report for us? >> i do have a report. >> are we 148 or lower? >> i'm lower, actually. i think a lot is a lot stake. there is a big debate over the bulls and the bears where the economy is going. and today's number is going to put an exclamation point. there are a lot of mixed numbers. adp raised all those concerns of jobs market weakening. others saying the weakness, not a slam dunk call. 148 dow jones forecast. cnbc update, not much of a different there. 136 was the average we came up with. all the top economists we talk to every day, that was their average. it was down there just about 12,000. unemployment rate unchanged. the average hourly ranges. 0.2%. let me share some of the mixed signals going into here. the negatives, positives and the neutral. all of is is relative to a 150k pays rate. adp, 119. ism unemployment, 50.2. still growth but not strong growth. down from 54. nfib came out the fifth straight measuring small business job growth of 0.14. and claims average 342,000. that would argue somewhat above trend growth. look at spring swoon. it looks like a pay back from a very strong february up in the 250 range there. but then again, look at the screen. there's the dropdown, the swoon. it has been on this long, slow, steady decline. we thought it had maybe bottomed out earlier this year or last year. and you can see the acceleration to the down side has continued. by the way, inside that number, the participation rate of 0.1% for men. and 0.6% for women. this is according to jim sullivan at high frequency economics. he said this is a result of small businesses where women are disproportionately employed. they have been losing their jobs. we'll be watching that. also watching government employment, which has been a drag. some expectations it's another drag to the down side. 119k was the adp. 136 is the cnbc wrap up. >> we call 20 economists and get an average. dow jones uses 50 or 60. ours is smaller. >> do we want to increase that size? >> the number? >> the pool. >> the calls to top economists. >> as if there's 20 top economists. >> the guys you talk to. you went golfing with one of them. >> even the phrase top economist. >> can i jump in on that too? >> you're on. >> he wasn't here in the last hour when we talked about this. just so you know, buffett said he wouldn't put any money on it but he took the under, too, when we talked to him yesterday. >> i wouldn't put any money betting against buffett. i'm interested in what happens to the march number. i think that is something that will factor in. do we get a slam dunk or do we go on into purgatory of is the economy weakening or not? march and april being weaker overall. >> buffett said don't put any money on him. i guess it's better not to do anything. >> don't put any money on his bet. >> yeah. i think i'm supposed to reintro you, becky. this is buffett watch. becky, i think we could use that background just in general. doesn't that look nice? >> it's pretty, isn't it? >> it looks much better -- can i say it looks better than in previous years? i don't know. was it green previously? now they're lighting it as blue? is that what's happening? >> honestly, it's gray. but the the lighting makes it look blue. jeff cordello is here. court came after jeff's father. his dad is the guy that was named over. it was jeff's dad. the will whole place was named after. just amazing small world. guys, let me tell you a little bit about what else we talked to buffett about yesterday. you want to try to get information about stocks out of him. it's tough to drag that stuff up. he was asked about jpmorgan. as he has told us in the past, jpmorgan is a stock that he owns in his own account. and he was asked what he did just in terms of voting. because jpmorgan, that whole question whether to split the chairman and ceo job. buffett said he is 100% for jamie dimon. he's supporting on both roles. the other stock that came up was moody's. this week berkshire had to report that it sold 1.75 million shares between monday and wednesday of this week. it owns more than 10% of the company. any time you own more than 10% you have to let the sec know in a filing when you do anything. it still owns 11.9%. he was asked if he would plan on selling more and he wouldn't answer that question. moody's came out with earnings. it looks like the company beat in terms of earnings per share and the revenue. the guidance, the outlook straddles right where the street was or what the expectation had been. again, this is a stock we know he sold off shares in the past. the other thing we asked about is after this whole earnings season got the chance to talk to him about ibm. here's what he says he thinks about big blue these days. >> what are your big stocks you had a major stake in recently, ibm. the stock was down sharply. did you buy more after the stock went down? >> i didn't buy more. i didn't sell any. and i won't be a seller of ibm. i might be a buyer from time to time. i think we may have added a little bit this year in the first quarter. i'm pretty sure we have. >> buffett has never been a big guy when it comes to technology. he does not have an e-mail account. a lot of people were surprised when he bought ibm. probably even more surprised yesterday when he actually tweeted for the first time. now he has a twitter account. it said warren is in the house. this is something immediately afterwards they followed up with a second tweet that tweeted an article that he had just written for women in the workplace. got a huge response on twitter. in fact, people all over the place were welcoming him. including bill and melinda gates, president clinton, and one from the cheesecake factory with a picture of strawberry short cake on it as well. here's what he had to say about why he joined twitter. >> when he went on twitter today for the first time. >> i know. >> why did you do it? are you going to tweet a lot now? >> well, i really did it to widen the distribution for the article i had written for "fortune." writing for "fortune," a lot of people would see it. when bill gates puts it on whatever you do on twitter and it goes out to millions of people, it's a terrific distribution meeting. so i was very happy to go on twitter. nothing bad has happened yet to me either. i may try a cell phone one of these days. >> guys, we will have more of this conversation with warren buffett later in the show. and we will sit down with charlie mungren an hour and a half from now. we will bring you pieces of that throughout the day. guys, i'll send it back over to you. >> i just kind of thing warren did it for a specific reason, which is why i joined. >> you joined to block people. >> i joined to retweet stuff my daughter does on her blog. how long has i been on? six months. >> a year or something. >> it's been a while. >> you went on not long after i did. but you never tweet. >> total tweets is 293. a guy yesterday had 40,000 tweets and eight followers. i messaged back to him. each one of your followers has gotten 90 tweets. something is wrong with this picture. >> i was expecting warren would be tweeting all the time. he goes to dairy queen. what's he eating. >> he doesn't even know how to use a cell phone. he got a call about the financial crisis. and the voice mail came a year later. >> and i don't have this incredible urge to share what i'm doing with a bunch of strangers. >> you do for three hours every morning. >> i forgot about that. you're right. i don't know if i would call it a bunch. >> becky, we're going to come back to you in just a moment. i know you have a big guest coming up. if you have comments or questions, shoot us an e-mail. squawk@cnbc.com. joe is @joecnbc. >> jobs numbers may change. dow opening 12 points. ceo john rogers joining becky. e knew all about a bike accident, just by talking to a helmet. it grabbed the patient's record before we even picked him up. it found out the doctor we needed was at st. anne's. wiggle your toes. and it got his okay on treatment from miles away. it even pulled strings with the stoplights. my ambulance talks with smoke alarms and pilots and stadiums. but, of course, it's a good listener too. 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[ female announcer ] today cisco is connecting the internet of everything. we replaced people with a machine.r, what? customers didn't like it. so why do banks do it? hello? hello?! if your bank doesn't let you talk to a real person 24/7, you need an ally. hello? ally bank. your money needs an ally. becky is in omaha for berkshire hathaway meeting. >> john has been fort folio manager for the ariel fund. it has a cumulative performance of 289% up at the end of the first quarter. thank you very much for being here today. >> really glad to be here. >> we have been coming here together. how many meetings have you been to now. >> i'm guessing five or six. we always feel badly we haven't been coming for 25. >> why do you like coming up? >> warren is the world's greatest investor. to be able to listen is just a terrific experience. >> this is an interesting time. people have been watching the market as it defies gravity. even with bad news it's been coming out, concerns over what's happening overseas. and a pretty lousy earnings season. the market keeps hitting new highs. a lot of people will be curious as to what he think about that. >> i want him to continue his optimism. he has been optimistic the last couple years that american equities are cheap. there is real opportunity for the future and stay the course. i am looking for that same optimism and belief that the markets are heading higher. >> i was surprised. we caught up with him yesterday when he was playing bridge like he does on thursday night every year before the annual meeting. he was talking about the jobs number and the economy. he seems to think it has been a little sluggish, weak. weaker than some people expected. he took the under on the jobs number for today. does that concern you? >> it's a temporary concern. don't get focused on the short-term data and eventually things get back on track. we're fine thinking out of the long term. >> john, when you look around, you get the sense of why the market has been doing this? is this fed induced? >> i think the economy is a little stronger than people thought. we have been meeting with a lot of management teams. and certain pockets of the economy, things are terrific. we love the media area. we continue to think stocks that are involved. and companies that provide programming. madison square garden. that's a wonderful company. or international speedway. they are the nascar people. the names are really, really well position said. >> so content is king and you don't think it will be disruptive by what's happening with the internet right now? >> we don't. we have specialized on live sports. we think people will want to see how wonderful things are. they can see the color and all the graphics. people are still wanting to advertise on sports programming. so we think places like madison square garden are extraordinarily well positioned. >> are sports the only place you see some sort of security, protective moat. >> one we have been working on lately is hospira, the. the stock has been under a cloud because the fda hasn't been happy with one of their plants. we think that will be short-term and it's a great long term play. >> when you talk kwreurs of the economy better than expected, is that something regionally based or more about the business you're in. >> it's more the business you're in. i really, really do. the companies are doing extraordinarily well. housing seems to be going up and up. >> we had two ceos who were with us earlier. acme brick and cort furniture. one thing that surprised me, even though you have seen housing rebounds, it's been a lot different than you might have expected because so many people have been locked up in their houses. he said in the past you had companies that would offer to buy employee's home to they could relocate. they're not doing that now. and qrm laws hadn't been written yet. that's concerning, right? there are still road blocks even though the fed has been so loose with this policy. road blocks are keeping things from recovering like they might be otherwise. >> still, housing formations are starting to really come back at a faster pace. pricing is getting better. condo prices are booming. there's a real demand there. we think the housing recovery is real. maybe it's slowed down a little bit. it will be there for the long run. >> excellent. we always appreciate the optimistic as well. thank you very much for joining us. when we come back, still from omaha, a classic berkshire bull/bear debate. march ya gabelli will make his case for being bullish. and doug kass will state his case in just a little bit. up next, stocks jumping thanks to better than expected jobless claims. a rate cut by european central bank. but we are closing in on today's job report. we will see what happens. we'll talk markets and whether or not you should sell in may. we will talk about that theory when sidewalk box continues. changing the world is exhausting business. with the innovating and the transforming and the revolutionizing. it's enough to make you forget that you're flying five hundred miles an hour on a chair that just became a bed. you see, we're doing some changing of our own. ah, we can talk about it later. we're putting the wonder back into air travel, one innovation at a time. the new american is arriving. nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is made at home. and where i can have exactly what i desire. ♪ nespresso. what else? 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[ groans ] ♪ ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. in the headlines, investors getting set for the wouldstock of capitalism asren buffett's berkshire hathaway holds its annual meeting. delta and american airlines are recently upped its fee for a domestic flight change. it's up to 200 bucks from $150. us airways matched the same last week. a little more costly to get out of that ticket. barnes & noble hopes to boost its nook reader. it is adding google play. that will increase the number of apps available on the nook from about 10,000 for more than 700,000. that's a little bit of help to those people reading on their nook. back to you. >> the s&p, we talked about another record high. joining us from st. petersburg, florida is raymond james chief investment strategist. raymond james doing really well among all your peers almost year after year. i don't know whether you have a better perspective because you're not as close to the trees as all these wall streeters. kudos on that. let's say for the last year, have you been fully invested in equities? have you been thinking the market is going to continue to go higher? or have you been cautious? >> i have not. we have tended to raise cash in the spring and look for a spot in the summer to put it back to work. i have been constructive on equities since november of last year. in recent weeks i have turned a little more bullish. markets are not vulnerable until you get into july/august time frame. >> that last little mini break that we had, i don't even measure it on the s&p. i'm not sure we hit 4%. last week or the week before. they said there was enough internal corrections going on that that might have already been -- there's still so many people, jeff. and i pointed it out. since november these guys have been saying don't put new money to work. because the market needs to pull back. if no one holds their feet to the fire they stay for 2,000 points. they keep saying it as if they have already missed it. and there could be a correction and it would still be above where they said don't put any money to work. they're not allowed to say anything now. do you think that might have happened where we are ready for another leg up? >> i do. and raymond james has not been one of those firms not to put money to work. we have had a number of ways,. i told them for six months to break it into four tranches. maybe four to six weeks later, you buy the second tranche. we will trade toward 1700 pretty quickly into the month of july. >> wow. from your lips. utilities have been doing really well. is that good that it's still dividend universe where the risk hasn't moved out the curve that far? or do you expect it to as this matures? >> i would make the argument that utilities are the vehicle of choice for fixed income investors. they can't get any yield in the treasury market. and that the industrials have become the new investment vehicle for the staple, the consumer staple of investors. and the staples have become the new investment vehicle for the utility investment. >> and do you expect a rotation away from what's been working to sexier parts of the market, or do you stick with what's been working? >> you stick at the margin with what's been working. the consumer staples and the utilities are fairly expensive on a historic work. markets tend to go higher than people think. i'm not so sure i would be sell all my staples in utilities here. i would be looking to buy technology. tech is valued cheaper than utilities. >> tech is still -- you can just look at the nasdaq if you want to look at where it is versus its all-time highs, instead of the s&p or the dow. both of those are at new highs. the nasdaq has how much to go? another 40% or something before it gets back, right? >> that's exactly right. they have strong balance sheets. they're fairly debt free. i think you're going to get a cycle to play here. we particularly like the tower stocks. you can see it every year more and more. your computer is going into your mobile device. you need more band width. you can think of it as real estate in the sky. >> which ones? >> rick is arguably the best in the business. sbac. he has both favorably rated. >> we'll do some technology. do you stay here or are there parts of the world that are going to grow faster that are still not too expensive? >> i do think that. i think the emerging and frontier markets over a longer cycle are going to grow faster than the mature economy, which is the u.s. i tend to get those through mutual funds. >> it's funny now. i'm starting to think of this in terms of my own -- we are allowed to diversify into mutual funds. i have to start worrying. i'm getting old. >> emerging markets? do you try to do it through -- >> you're young. >> jeff, are you trying to do it through a big multi -- u.s. multinational? you're doing it through the funds that have direct investments? >> yeah. my friend thomas melendez runs the mfs international diversification. >> the other thing is typical asset allocation is 60/40 with fixed income. to me that just -- when you have zero interest rates and 30-year bull market and bonds, seems like that's a stupid move now. shouldn't it be 90/10. >> i don't think rates go up in the short-term. but i've been around long enough, 43 years to, watch the 30-year treasury bond from 3% to 15%. and people lost a lot of money. >> yeah. i agree with that. all right. jeff, raymond james -- you're the guy behind most of the raymond james. you make the decisions, right? >> i'm one of the guys. you bet. >> thank you. >> pleasure. >> all right. see you later. good to have him on. >> right. >> given all the people we have had on. you think if you're in omaha, or out there, all of life can be -- it can have a strange view of all of life if you live in manhattan. >> being out of new jersey -- >> finally this helps you that you had to come out here instead of that prison with bars on it. what is that? fifth avenue where you work? >> pianna built that building. pomp due center in paris he built. you love paris. >> i do. >> gabelli and kass speaking to becky. check out the futures. back a little. stamps.com is the best. i don't have to leave my desk and get up and go to the post office anymore. 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[ male announcer ] get a 4 week trial plus $100 in extras including postage and a digital scale. go to stamps.com/tv and never go to the post office again. welcomed back to squawk. lincolnedin beat estimate office 31 cents. guess what. you're looking at that down 10% premarket. that's because revenue forecasts were short of expectations. that will be sending that stock down this morning. in the meantime, omaha where becky is. she's ready for berkshire hathaway's annual meeting and she has special guests with her, i believe. >> andrew, thank you. we are waiting to get here. thousands of buffett faithful are in for the shareholder 34eg. they will be here in this very arena tomorrow. a lot of questions need to be answered about the state of berkshire's business. joining us right now is mario gabelli and doug kass, sea pwraez founder and president. he it's a pleasure to have you here. >> it's great to be with you. >> mario, you come out every year. you have been coming for a long time. >> no, only 10 or 12 years. >> and that's a long time. it is. >> okay. >> you have been coming longer than i have, shall we say. >> okay. >> why do you do it? >> well, it's partly to reinforce what we do. to thank warren for all he did for per perch situating graham, dodd. and always to get ideas and meet a lot of interesting people like doug. >> doug, we're thrilled you're out here. they changed the panel. they wanted a bear on the stock. buffett put out a call. you were chosen as the person sitting here on sta ask men's of buffett and munger. >> exciting. >> first of all, why are you here? what are you thinking? why did you apply to be the official bear? >> first of all, i'm very excited. i feel like a journeyman pitcher facing my cousin sandy koufax, hall of fame pitcher from los angeles dodgers. >> you can't hit curve balls. >> what makes matters worse, look at the batting order. munger at 390, warren buffett in cleanup, who has the highest batting average in the history of major league finance. but i will throw a couple good curve balls at them. >> one number, 19.7% compounded 40 years. that's the number you have to tell everybody. remarkable. >> well, wait for some of my questions. it addresses that. >> how did you prepare? >> mario and i have preparing and researching stocks a couple of years. at least five years. but since warren and berkshire have been under a microscope for three or four decades, i had to do a deeper dive. and it was almost as if i was an investigative reporter. unfortunately i had bad ground with writing a book called citibank in the '70s. i reread everything that loomis has written on both subjects. but i went far deeper. i have come up with spicy research for my six or seven questions. >> all you had to do was read the annual report for the last 20 years. >> i have been reading 40 years. >> too bad you didn't own it. >> that's why i have a rented apart and you have an estate in greenwich. >> i grew up two miles from marshall. you pronounce it different than anyone in the bronx would. >> you did used to own berkshire? >> i did. this is the second time i have been shorted. i have been shorted a month and a half. 104.38 to be exact. >> that's the b stock. >> i wrote 11 reasons to short berkshire hathaway. stocks fell 40%. so i did well that time. >> and you got out? >> yes. >> and the reasons you're shorting it, does it go back to the same list of 11? >> i think we have to stay tuned to the annual meeting tomorrow to discuss that. >> mario, you're here. you're not short stock. >> we started buying when i first started a mutual fund in 1985. still own it. cost 3,000. it's 160,000. i remember, becky, in february or march of 2000 when it collapsed, dotcom was booming, they drove stock down to $40,000. what's the point in buying and selling, paying a tax, if i believe the next 10 years he can grow intrinsic value and buys the stock back at 20%? so book is $130,000 more or less today. not at the end of the year. it was 114. at the end of this year. so that will grow 10%, not 20%. but still make a terrific return for our clients. >> there have been massive clients about the buy and hold strategy the last decade or so. particularly a lot of the big dow components didn't go up. you saw their earnings go up significantly. but the stock prices have been languishing for a lot. it's been a different story recently. we have watched the dow continue to go hit new highs. >> yeah. i think that's what etfs, algo trading, individuals that have captured the new york stock exchange, dominating the knowledge base. risk on, risk off. everyone has different ways of making money. it's not our style. it's not warren's style or the whole array that have come through the graduate school of business like warren. it's just different. >> but do you think the buy and hold strategy is one that is going to be back en vogue? >> it's the notion that someone always comes one a new flavor of the decade. whether it was in the 1980s with o'bri o'brien. protect your down side by buying puts. '90s it was something else. trading is really terrific. it's like talking about plane crashes, other dynamics that everybody likes to comment on. it's the flavor of the day. >> doug, i know you're not giving away your thesis on why you are short berkshire. when it comes to buy and hold, do you think it's write, this is a time when investors are getting serious about it? some have gotten so badly burned by the last several crashes. >> i think generally speaking mario is correct. it is what warren calls the gravity of markets and stocks. they tend to rise over time. but i would say at this point in time today in many way toss me is similar to some elements, obviously not all the elements of 2007, 2008 where we have seen stocks move around the globe relentlessly higher in the face of economic challenges. does that suggest you think we're going to see a crash again? >> no. it recreates reward versus risk has deteriorated dramatically. >> as we say in the value world it has changed dramatically so. the notion of i having a portfolio of a dollar, do i sell what i mean or buy an etf and go short for a portion of it. that's a different dynamic. i buy insurance on my house, and it's never burned down and i lost a lot of money. but i need to anyway. >> when you look at stock market versus other asset, people say it looks incredibly cheap it is now corroded, before bernanke and draghi gets in the game. that liquidity is showing up exactly where they want it. financial assets, housing and currency. >> i agree obviously with mario. you can distill where i have been wrong where i turned negative is that we didn't realize that the federal reserves mandate would change from unemployment and inflation to the dow jones industrial average and the s&p 500 in that state assembly. >> well, on my point of view, the margin of safety is not as bare today. you're at a four foot level. you can get hurt. u wet above the grouped. there's some potential damages. >> again, to paraphrase warren, there aren't that many cigar butts left around. >> people are not looking where they are. you can still find really interesting companies. it's a tough time of year. annual reports. >> and the market has gone up despite lousy earnings. >> mario, thank you very much for joining us. doug, thank you. we are looking forward to your questions tomorrow. >> 24 hours, doug. >> when we come back, the fastest two minutes in sports. we'll take a look at who to watch in the kentucky derby and a list of the early favorites. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world. nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is made at home. and where i can have exactly what i desire. ♪ nespresso. what else? the fastest two minutes in sports with 139th running of the kentucky derby. brian schactman is there with some of the story lines. you know about girls, teenage girls and horses, brian. i mean, my daughter -- this is the biggest saturday in -- for some reason. she makes a collage of every horse. slow motion on her iphone. we watch the entire broadcast on nbc. >> i do too. >> what is it? it's really weird for two minutes. i don't know what to do. how can i pick a favorite? everybody is talking about orb, he finishes so strong. he will be waiting behind. i can't pick a 7-2. i've got to go with some -- what are you going to do? tell me what you're going to do? >> well, i will tell you i'm going with revolutionary. >> i thought about that. i thought about that. >> i like a good name that has decent odds. the name has to have the gravitas. charming kitten doesn't wash for me. make has an incredible role model, joe. i want to talk a few historical things with the derby. we could see some history. rosy was actually born in new jersey. could be the first female. i'll tell you, my daughter is the same way. she's not a horseback rider. but my kids sit on the couch and watch this race every year. kevin krigger could be the first african-american to win since 1902. gary stevens coming out of retirement. at 50, he would be the oldest to win since 1986, which is an interesting year. that's when jack nicklaus won the masters. golden cents is partly owned by rick pitino. . and orb is favorite. earnings close to a million dollars. that would be an incredible return on investments with janney and phipps. 7,800 liters of bourbon. you can pay 50 bucks to get in. that's on the infield, which is a little like nascar. tickets up to 12,500 for the newly open said mansion. i'm lucky to be at the hampton in, which has rooms tonight for $500. that's in indiana, joe. >> brian, jimmy fallon say big part of this down there. and blake has blogged about rosy. she saw that "60 minutes" piece. louisville won. golden cents, i don't know. i'm so confused at this point. >> go with your gut, though. >> my gut is gone. because i've been running. >> you've been swimming. >> swimming. anyway, we have to get out at 57. have fun. it's awesome down there. don't get totally faced on the mint julips. much more with the berkshire hathaway annual meeting. you know how to mix business... with business. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i could get used to this. [ male announcer ] yes, you could business pro. yes, you could. go national. go like a pro. yes, you could. the math of retirement is different today.ek. money has to last longer. i don't want to pour over pie charts all day. i want to travel, and i want the income to do it. ishares incomes etfs. low cost and diversified. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. april employment report hits the tape in a half hour. will it be cue to go away, sell in may. our experts will give instant analysis. the third hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box". first in business worldwide. i just found out mario owns a big part of churchill downs. >> yeah. >> i got it late. >> he was saying -- i'm sorry. i didn't want to jump in on your time. he heard us teasing kentucky derby. he said i am the largest owner in churchill downs. and he said they're still buying, joe. >> i would too. it's always great. the next race there's a chance for a triple crown. it's been 1976 i think. >> and he chooses to go to the berkshire hathaway meeting every year instead of. >> instead of. >> even though he is largest shareholder. kind of cool. >> are you going to pick a horse, becky? >> i'm embarrassed to admit i don't know any of them except the one who got scratched. >> rosie is a great rider. she's from jersey like you. >> i'll follow you. i will follow you. >> i don't know what to do. i'm still thinking. i'll let you know by the end of the show. >> okay. i'm going with whomever you pick. whoever, whomever. guys, real quickly. i know we have a lot this hour. yesterday we caught up with warren buffett and asked about his expectations for today's employment report. here's what he had to say. >> don't put any money on it because i don't know a thing about it. but business has not been improving at a rapid clip. so i do not think the number will be a higher number. i'll put it that way. >> back with more from warren buffett in 15 minutes. we asked him about the possibility that the fed could accelerate asset purchases like they hinted. by the way, done tune in monday 6:00 a.m. eastern time. both warren buffett will joining us along with bill gates. warren will be with us three hours starting at 6:00 a.m. bill gates will join us in the 58 a.m. hour. we have a lot to talk about. andrew, by the way, you probably saw the wind blowing there. it's pretty cold. make sure you bring your coat. >> how cold are we talking? >> snow cold. it's chilly. >> is there snow outside on the ground everywhere? >> i'm wearing this right now. i'm cold. there's not snow everywhere, but it's chilly. >> i'll bring a coat and a sweater. >> coldest bring in history. >> hold on. what's going to happen, by the way. stay where you are. i brought my shoes. are they still going to do the race. >> yeah. the race is still on. the streets are clean. the race is still on. >> there's a 5k race. these are, by the way, limited edition berkshire hathaway. can we get a camera here? these are berkshire hathaway shoes. but look inside. this is -- can you see that? i don't know if the light is good enough. you can see warren buffett is inside the shoe. i don't know. there it is. is warren going to race or just stand? >> are you going to race? >> i was thinking of doing it. >> you got me. are you run something. >> i don't know. i was thinking of running. >> andrew, i'm wearing these. i'm not running. >> if it's snowing, i'm definitely not running. we will see how it goes. anyway, we will catch up with you in just a bit, becky. in the meantime, our top headlines. the big one. government investigators accusing jpmorgan chase of manipulating energy trading in california and michigan. that's according to the "new york times". the paper is saying that the schemes were carried out by energy traders in houston. we're going to see where that story goes. ecb policymaker saying it overinterpreted draghi's numbers on deposit rates. you're seeing that the euro jumped against the dollar on watney's comments. >> we are less than 30 minutes away from april's jobs number. we have assembled our panel of experts for their predictions. mark zandi, chief economist at moody's. he worked so hard on getting this number right you didn't know the derby was tomorrow. >> sorry. >> and we'll pick up the pace with ben pace, chief u.s. investment officer deutsch bank private wealth management. and i don't know what to do with the aei. this next man, goulsby, economics professor at the university chicago school of business. should i ask you about the derby, austin? >> i appreciate that. i thought, you know, you and the gold bugs. i thought you would go for the golden cents. >> it is pitino, right? that's an idea, though. louisville, is it his year? >> i think it's his year. >> do you really? that would be huge. austin, we're back where we were. do you feel deja vu all over again? >> i wish i didn't. but, yes, here we are again. going into the summer. stuff is not going that great. growth rate is relatively slow. now you get the sequester stuff piling up. and so i don't think it's going to be a fun summer for the job market. >> you know, austin, i don't know. i think about you a lot in terms hat attribute it to. globally, you're right. you could say the entire globe is having growth problems so maybe it's not self inflicted here in the u.s. because of all the activist stuff. it does play into your argument that it's sort of a global phenomena. you have long-term structural problems because it's a socialist sort of leaning area. i expect them to. i don't want to join in being slow. >> absolutely. neither do i. i think our problems -- you say it's activist government. but the massive cutting of government spending from bernanke through all the objective economic analysts is pulling our growth rate down. we've got to shift a private sector led growth that. doesn't mean shoe pull the rug out from under. >> but austerity has this horrible name because europe. it consisted of tax hikes, not cutting. >> in some countries you're right. in many countries -- >> you know who can tell you -- kevin, is this all out of our control, what's happening to us here? i feel like we're also ran economic power now? >> the austerity stuff is exactly right, what you said. that only about four countries had fiscal consolidation modeled after the ones we know worked that are mostly spending. most were between 50%, 60% spending reductions. the rest was tax hikes. they were all front loaded. but i think the big news for the jobs report today for me i'm looking towards is there have been different perspectives on the labor market depending what data item you're looking at. it will be news worth. the the initial claims, for example, are back down to where they were before the crisis. job separations and the jolts data they are looking the lowest they have been in a decade. there are signs that the labor market is starting to turn around. we have this awful martha maybe it was because it was bad weather. maybe it was because march was a turning point. and i think if april comes in 150 or so, we will start to think, okay, the data are kind of returning to normal. but if it comes in back around 80 like it did in march, we will be back where austin is. >> how did we get you? is this your idea? >> you're looking at me like it was my idea? >> it was a joke. we have gotten criticism that msnbc books our economic panel. we have goulsby, sandy, swan, austin. and we always have one more. >> you have jared. >> where is rachel? might as well put her on the panel too. you need to have some broad shoulders to counteract. how about you, ben? who do you think? >> jobless rates will be 140 this year. self-inflicted? why is this happening again? >> i think you have another summer slowdown that's happening right now. >> why? >> because the summer slowdown from 1.9 to 1.5. >> it is weak coming out of this. i'm in that mode. i do think that economic growth is going to be positive. you have a combination of recession ear and monetary policy with positive economic growth and where does the money go. >> you should be happy because the economic growth is positive. >> but 2.5%, joe? >> it's five years. >> the long-term potential is 2.5% to 3%. europe is a problem. that's about where we are. >> europe, the federal growth there is probably a lot lower. >> fiscal drag. kevin, what is the fiscal drag in 2013? >> 1.5%. >> so that's the subtraction to gdp growth. from the aai. he's absolutely right. that's the fiscal -- that means if we're going to go 2% this year the private economy is adding 3.5 percentage points to economic growth. that's pretty good. that's not bad. if the government, which is neutral with respect to the economy, we would all be feeling pretty good. we would create a lot of jobs. and the debate is should we have fiscal austerity. they're debating how much austerity. >> and where. it should be entitlements and a plan for a plan. >> in efficient government spending we have had for years to more efficient capital spending. the businesses have money. that's one of the biggest positives of this economy. they're not spending. that's the catalyst. fiscal issues, regulatory issues. >> so you buy that? >> i absolutely buy that. >> you have companies replacement alone. they will start spending on capital equipment and on people. there's also this issue like chief technology officers being confused about the tax spending they have to do, cloud versus conventional. that could slow things down as well. we expect that to pick up the rest of the year. >> austin, zandi went off the reservation a little pointing out the 30-hour limit on part-time for obama care and the 50 employees, he said that's hurting. are you still friends with him? >> i'm still friends with you, joe. what are you talking about? >> very nice. >> what i think on obama care is if you think that's anything an impact, a, i think you have to explain why, for example, on the day they announce that mandate is legal in a surprise the stock market barely hosas any hiccup. that will stop dropping the unemployment rate. you will replace 40-hour a week people with two 20-hour-a-week people. if you see average hours going way down with the unemployment rate falling you would say, okay. >> you really don't think businesses can control whether they -- like restaurants -- you don't think this will affect them? zandi would never go -- >> that's the right thing to add is on the margin. the number of companies right around the 50 threshold or the number of employees going to be right around. >> he was up for a big government job and still came out and said that. >> austin is right. proof positive. >> let me ask. you ask him when you want an expert, right? >> always ask kevin. >> i'm going to make you head of the bls if i can ever get in there. and i will say bls is messing everything up. >> yeah. you know, at first i think the problem with systems analysis, if you use people fewer hours probably you're less efficient. so that's going to cause some negativity. but i think going back to austerity, you guys are missing the headline, which is before the crisis, government spending, gdp was 39%. then it went up to 44.5% at peak. it's gone down to 42%. but it's still way above where it was before the crisis. if you were back right when the crisis hit and you designed a stimulus that would go deep, deep, deep past recession, sure government spending has gone down but it's still way above where it was. i think it is misplaced. >> you're absolutely right. we need to get government spending down. it's just the trajectory and how quickly we get it down. if you were king for the day you probably want to smooth that fiscal drag over a couple, three years so the private economy can really kick into gear and create a lot of jobs. >> maybe it's because we're at a new normal. we haven't had a triple crown winner. it was 1978. everyone remembers secretariat. >> there were four in a row. >> seattle. >> i'm hoping this year. >> it's going to change the market. >> that could maybe get us back to above 2% growth and below 8% unemployment maybe. we're at a 40-year low participation rate. we're getting close to 8:30 a.m. of course the april employment report. back to our panel for final predictions. back to becky at the berkshire hathaway meeting. welcome back, everybody. we are live in omaha, nebraska this morning. we are on the stage that warren buffett and charlie munger will be taking tomorrow. 40,000 berkshire shareholders. we're ahead of that, though. we caught up with warren buffett as he was on his way to a bridge game and we had the chance to ask him about the latest statement from the central bank. they may do more than they are right now at $85 billion a month. >> well, i think it would be pretty extraordinary. the fed's balance sheet is up to 3.4 trillion roughly. 85 million a month is a lot to buy. basically they're buying the debt we're creating. but the economy is improving. i want to emphasize that. not at a rapid clip. this country has done well since 2008, certainly compared to much of the world. >> buffett has been a long-time backer of bernanke. he has been concerned about how much the fed is continuing to do just because he's worried how the fed gets out of it. this is uncharted territory where we stand today. all investors are keeping an eye on that. the other thing buffett told us is this job number coming up in a few minutes, if he had to put money on it, he would. but if he was going to, he would be taking the under instead of over based on what they have been seeing too. weakness in terms of how things have been going along in the economy. guys, i'm leaving. i will catch one charlie munger. tomorrow andrew and i will be tweeting from the annual shareholder meeting. if you want to follow along with what we're seeing, follow us @beckyquickcnbc an and @andrewrsorkin. warren buffett joining us live monday 6:00 a.m. eastern time. 8:00 a.m., we will be joined by microsoft founder bill gates. a lot of conversation, a lot of things to talk b. andrew, have a safe flight out here. >> thank you. i will bring a coat. we will be watching throughout the day. >> joe, did you come up with your horse yet? >> are you leaving? >> orb. >> i'm not going to pick a favorite. i don't know yet. and i was thinking about revolutionary. and i think schactman picked that. >> what about the one that sounds like venezuela? >> or a phone company. >> i'm going with verizano. >> we will see you in a little bit. >> the final countdown to the april employment report. one last look at our panel's predictions before the numbers hits the tape. don't go anywhere. "squawk" is coming right back. [ agent smith ] i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ♪ [ agent smith ] ge software connects patients to nurses to the right machines while dramatically reducing waiting time. [ telephone ringing ] now a waiting room is just a room. [ static warbles ] i don't have to leave my desk and get up and go to the post office anymore. [ male announcer ] with stamps.com you can print real u.s. postage for all your letters and packages. i have exactly the amount of postage i need, the instant i need it. can you print only stamps? no... first class. priority mail. certified. international. and the mail man picks it up. i don't leave the shop anymore. [ male announcer ] get a 4 week trial plus $100 in extras including postage and a digital scale. go to stamps.com/tv and never go to the post office again. nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is made at home. and where i can have exactly what i desire. ♪ nespresso. what else? we'll be watching the shares of linkedin. first quarter earnings of 45 cents up higher than expected. revenue forecast for the second quarter. and also watching the shares of weight watchers international. company's earnings beat expectations but fell 11% in the first quart tpher in the meetin. apple is approaching 50 billion app downloads. so celebrate the milestone they will award a $10,000 app store gift card to the person that down loads the 50 billion app. and $500 gift cards to 50 customers to -- >> would you buy $10,000 worth of apps? >> all mine have been free. >> this would be a great gift card but it would never get used. you can use it, i'm told in my ear, you can use it for music. i subscribe to music. you pay a monthly free and have unlimited music. but the day you stop paying you have no music. that's what's going on. anyway, we'll talk jobs for a second. a few minutes away from the jobs report. steve liesman is with us. rick santelli. our panelists predictions. goolsbee is 108,000. mark zandi, 120,000. rick santelli is looking for 144,000. that's more optimistic than i thought he would have been. and kevin is just above dow jones's consensus. where are you, joe? >> what was it? last month it was way below. month before way above. so i don't know. >> i'm worried about the derby. >> i'm going to take somewhere between austin and zandi. >> we've got to go. just minutes away from the u.s. equity futures. the numbers down a little bit. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ here we are, me and you ♪ on the road ♪ and we know that it goes on and on ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of making memories and keeping promises. ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ ♪ oh, oh, all the way ♪ oh, oh [ lorenzo ] i'm lorenzo. i work for 47 different companies. well, technically i work for one. that company, the united states postal service® works for thousands of home businesses. because at usps.com® you can pay, print and have your packages picked up for free. i can even drop off free boxes. i wear a lot of hats. well, technically i wear one. the u.s. postal service®, no business too small. futures were basically flat. now they're up two points or so. we closed yesterday at a high. now we have an expert, cnbc's hampton pierson is waiting. he never lets us know. anyway, he joins us from the labor department with the numbers. up 165,000. april nonpharm. payrolls increased by 165,000 jobs. unemployment 7.5%. average hourly up 0.2%. private sector job growth. 176,000. we had huge revisions for the february and march number. the original february number, plus 268. now revised upward to plus 332,000. march, that in famous 88,000 last month revised upwards to 138,000. increase of 114,000 jobs for the two months above what has been previously reported. specifically in key sectors. march revisions add 20,000 more than previously reported. february, an additional 39,000 in the leisure and hospitality sector. now, back to that revised february number that now stands 332,000, it's the biggest one-month high since may 2010. a lot of that increase was driven by the hiring of census workers. if you take out the census number, it's the biggest one-month increase since november 2005. 7.5% unemployment rate the lowest since december 2008 when it was 7.3%. how did we get there? we had an additional 293,000 employment increase in the household survey. the labor force, by the way, added an additional 210,000. the participation rate, 63.3%. basically unchanged from last month. job losses in april. construction down 6,000. government down 11,000 with the federal government losing 8,000 of that total. so total employed, 11.7 million. six months or longer, 4.3 million. 37.4%. that's a drop of 2.2 percentage points in the long-term unemployment rate. guys, in addition to all those numbers i just gave you, we had some excitement here at the labor department. there was a fire on the fourth floor. the building is closed for the day. so 5,000 folks basically have the day off. back to you guys. >> all right. austin, off camera, zandi said, when did austan goolsbee become the -- >> he didn't say it exactly like that. >> misled us all. >> that's right. that's that zandi. he nailed it the very first time. kevin hasset. you nailed it. >> i carefully read mark zandi. the bones of the data are pretty good. and i think the jobs number is consistent with that. >> and even santelli, that just shows you. he doesn't necessarily take low numbers. you were like second i think, rick, at 144. austan, when can i join the bls? >> i thought you were going to say. when he said the fire i thought you were going to say they're burning the evidence. >> let me know what i can take over and put some real numbers out here. steve, you had a lot of things with services. >> 185. >> retail? >> retail bouncing back to 29,000 after having a tough month in march. revisions put the private sector really back in a normal place, average place. 154 for march. 176 for april. big projections coming from government. minus 16 in march. that's 11,000 revision lower. and minus 11,000 in april. we're doing 160, 170 is the average if you were to add that government. 34.4 is the workforce. you have had a divergence. unemployed declined. so those are big numbers. >> did you see the futures, andrew? >> yeah. >> what's great is in a bull market, bad news is good news and good news is good news. we're at new highs as of yesterday. what do we need for another leg up? suddenly good economic numbers -- i thought bit too. they were scared that the fed -- if the fed is going to do more, how can you not rub that all over your body? >> why did you have to come up with that metaphor. excuse me while i pierce my mind's eye. >> the fed saying -- >> they thought something bad. >> look, if your drug dealer comes to you and says, all right, half price on everything you want and i'm going to give you even more, initially it might be, wow, it might be bad for me. but over 85 billion potentially. >> i don't think there's a surplus out there. i don't think good jobs numbers are as good for the the market. >> no, it's not. >> there's no huge surplus. it may be a best neutral to a slight negative. >> we got this number and we're not tapering. >> we're not tapering for a long time. >> this is a great number. it could give us a leg up. >> it's not a great number. >> it is from what we thought. >> can i point out one blemish. we went from 34.6 revised. that's a big decline. 2.2 translates into a boat load of jobs. >> what do you make of this huge revision from last month? >> first, i'm going to pound the table. the notion that government cannot count the number of government workers on an accurate basis on a month is outrage. they revised downward the number of workers. it's computers. it's absurd. >> austan it makes your lost number crappy too. >> it does not. it does not. >> it's been wrong for a while now. >> two straight months you have been way off. >> as well i can do that. >> the number is temporary employment. this could play in to the health care story, or it could be seen as leading edge of more employment to come. you have done 26,000 and 31,000 increases in employment the last two months. leisure hospitality of 43,000. those are sort of in the discretionary vane. >> yeah. >> i still think this tells you 2% economy. it doesn't tell you 3% or 3.5% economy. >> my view, big picture, is that the numbers are good. undeniably good. but the growth rates are slowing. so if you look at the average monthly job growth is 200 k. we are starting to throttle down. it feels like going forward -- >> did you not carry the stupid adp thing? spreadsheet mistake? >> remember, it's the third print. just the revision we got in march takes us back close to the adp. so i suspect -- >> you have an answer for everything. >> adp in march? >> 135, 140. >> what is it? >> what do you say? >> that's a line. get your dradle. >> rick, the participation rate didn't go down. wouldn't it be nice if we were able to add a decent number of jobs and the participation rate started rising? do you see that ever happen? that would make me feel better about everything. >> you know, i have my doubts. i think that the pool that has kind of gone under the radar screen i think that's going to become just another add on to the structural issues. i don't know. mr. zandi, you didn't get the job. i was just curious, did you send mel a con garagratulations. now that i see the rejoice i wish it had been you. >> no, no. come on. very experienced legislator. very nice fellow. >> isn't he just going to channel barney frank? really, be frank. all his philosophies are the same philosophies that put subprime at the epicenter. >> i don't believe that, rick. i think he's going to be his own guy. he has to be. >> like all the cabinet post members. they're their own guys. >> if they consider principal write downs, they can save billions of dollars. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. >> they're going to come from american wallets all over the country. >> yeah. pay now or pay later. >> you know what, pay later. way later. way later. >> five years ago, rick, and you blew up. >> i blew up. you know what, we can buy those ham okays you want to sell everybody from europe. greece is having garage sales. >> there's a horse called -- and this might be perfect for all of us, overanalyze. there apparently is a horse. >> what are they, 15-1. >> that's not bad. make some money. >> thanks to austan goolsbee. that's a good-looking group right there. kevin hassett. mark zandi. we'll stick around the rest of the show. thank you, guys. kevin, don't make plans the first friday of every month. i'm going to need you. we need him. >> absolutely do. coming up, more on the market reaction. jobs report and the stocks on the move ahead of the opening bell. first, before we do that, new sec chairwoman mary jo white. we will bring you the details after the break. monday on "squawk box", words of wisdom from the oracle of omaha. three hours with warren buffett on the markets, the economic recovery and berkshire's portfolio of companies. live on "squawk box" starting monday at 6:00 a.m. eastern. 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[ groans ] ♪ ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ welcome back to "squawk box". take a look at futures. much better than expected. dow jones looks like it opens 101 points higher. s&p 500 up almost 12 points. nasdaq would open 21.5 points higher as well. >> i don't know, joe. your definition of good looking is a hell of a lot different than mine. i'm sorry. >> he's a very handsome man. >> i thought he was talking about me. >> that's gratuitous nastiness to say that. >> if we're apologizing by my dradel comment. >> what is it? >> it's a hanukkah thing. it's a game. you spin. >> i grew up on the west side of cincinnati. >> we're trying to educate you. you teach me all kinds of things. >> i need to know. >> i have to admit, i was spinning a bit. i'm going to definitely apologize. the adp number was overly pessimism. it should have been stronger. >> an admission made at the table. i will not spin. >> so i can use that then. i will say, wow, you're pulling out the dreidel. >> you have never spun a dreidel? >> next year you're coming to hanukkah at my house. >> it doesn't spin for very long, right? >> right. >> unless you're good at it. >> we're going to come over and have chocolate gelts. >> is that a fish? >> there is a gefilte fish. >> what do you know about this? >> i'm experienced. i have everything covered. >> real quick, the sunday "new york times" smack screen. it's the first interview with bob dunn since leaving barclays a year ago. it's incredible what happened overnight. virtually every british newspaper picked up on some of the comments he made in the magazine piece. one that seems to be getting everybody crazy is this quote where he said in the piece, this is going to sound arrogant as hell but i never did anything for the money. i never set money as a goal. it was a result. and i have to tell you whatever that was, and that line seemed to have frustrated or upset people, at some level -- there are people in the uk who obviously dislike him and in this case don't believe him. and i think that's part of the issue. i found him to actually be quite a reasonable guy. >> right. >> somewhat misunderstood. this whole libor scandal quite misundersto misunderstood. his role not that much. the whole symbolic nature of it was what really put them over the edge. i'm surprise, though, 10 minutes later there is still as much as angst about it. >> andrew, think about that country. the greatest country in the world a couple hundred years ago. they don't even have a navy. they have a lot of issues, the brits, to deal with. i'm going to cut them some slack. their economy and everything else. they have had a rough go as we have surpassed on every level. just when you talk about money, there are people, american enterprises, where if you make $50,000 but earn it, feel good. 500 but earn it feel good. 50 million is about earning it. >> that's what he is saying. people think profit say dirty word. it sets prices, allocates capital. but there are a whole group of people that don't understand any of that. >> i think it's too much. that's what so much of this -- >> they think the world could run on nonprofit organizations and that we would be fine. they do. >> and the government. >> that's what i mean. need to be educated. >> anyway. coming up, jim cramer will give us his reaction to today's job numbers. down to the new york stock exchange and talk to him. first, if you're craving a behind the scenes look at how the magic is made here on "squawk box", go to squawk.cnbc.com fort latest edition of talking squawk. it's our blog by our executive producer. this week we have everything from me and joe having a lingerie pillow fights. i'm just reading this for the first time. now i'm scared about what's in this blog post. and joe's new bff bradley cooper. that's talking squawk at squawk.cnbc.com. matthew quail, executive producer, we will see what he has to say. i'm thinking about china, brazil, india. th choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. i don't have to leave my desk and get up and go to the post office anymore. 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[ male announcer ] open an account and get a $150 amazon.com gift card. call 1-888-280-0149 now. optionsxpress by charles schwab. jim, let's go down to the new york stock exchange. the fed, we have extra stuff coming from them. tapering is off the table. market's at a new high. what's going to get it going again? there you go. suddenly this news justifies another leg up from new highs. everybody who is saying wait, wait, wait. it's never going to give you a chance. now we see why the cyclical stocks have started to move. they will be the next wave. we've had great guests on this morning talking about how technology is cheap, industrials are very cheap and that's where the money is going and it doesn't mean they'll flow out of the soft goods, but there will be more money coming in and by the way, financials and hey, you see job growth, it's great for the financials. >> jim, are you going to -- you do that, don't you? >> i haven't done enough homework. i'm just not there. i've been spending too much time on the linkedin quarter. >> i'm going to make a pick. probabliorb will win. i will pick normandy invasion. number one -- dorm when reagan talked about those guys going out there? i even think about him talking about those guys that were there, and i cry, and -- because i love the french. i love the french. so much. i love everything about them. i'm picking normandy invasion, but orb will probably win. >> go with pitino's horse or rosy. >> have you ever been? >> no, but -- >> it's the greatest event. >> i have to go to the indy 500. i've been to the super bowl, and the derby is a must go for everybody in america. it's one of the greatest events ever. >> it's weird that it lasts two minuters on less. >> ten minutes. >> you're still good for ten? you go, boy. >> i was talking about the panic. >> thank you, jim. we'll see you in a couple of minutes. >> brilliantly done. you are are the master. the master of what? seinfeld. >> newly confirmed sec chairman mary joe white speaking at the institute earlier this morning. cnbc's eamon javers joins us with more on what she said. >> good morning, andrew. she's only been on the job for 18 days and she came here in the ic icon 14s to lay out her vision for a global regulatory regime and we had a is chance to catch up with her backstage and we asked her about the bogus a.p. tweet we saw last week and how it moved the markets. here's her answer. take a listen. >> i think we all have to realize that events like that have happened before. it remind us of several things. it reminds us that our system whether we're an issuer can be tapped interest. therefore we want to make state of the art safeguards to prevent that as much as possible if -- if -- sorry. if false information gets out there it's important for companies to correct that as soon as they can. >> she also talked about the thicket of global regulatory agencies and the numbers of contacts she's had with regulatory agencies overseas as she struggles to put in place a regulatory regime that works for everybody and i asked her if the united states would follow other global regulators instead of setting the lead and here's her answer to that question. >> it seems a collaborative process and not to lower our bars and our standard, but i think we are recognizing more and more as global regulators that we all want high bar and regulations and we want to avoid the regulatory arbitrage. >> so, guys, from the internet to the planet there's a lot on the plate and we'll be curious to see how her tenure unfolds. she said she's not, but ask her in a year or so once she's been on the job. >> thank you for that report. in the meantime, coming up, i'm takinger ha taking verazzano. ♪ [ male announcer ] the parking lot helps by letting us know who's coming. the carts keep everyone on the right track. the power tools introduce themselves. all the bits and bulbs keep themselves stocked. and the doors even handle the checkout so we can work on that thing that's stuck in the thing. 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"squawk on the street" is next. >> good morning. welcome to "stalk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla, jim cramer and david faber. 165 non-farm jobs being added. the revision are a completely new story, as well, which we'll talk about. implied triple-digit move up 110 and we'll see if europe reacts to this, as well. some of those vi

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