Far this year. The dow has advanced 8 in total. The s p 500 up almost 14 . The nasdaq has jumped 16 . Its been a good year. The end of the year also means we are just days away from the fiscal cliff, however, and thats the bad news. And looming tax hikes, spending cuts, all of that. Both sides warning a very big deal becoming a bit more unlikely. And my one bit of advice to Speaker Boehner is this. You cannot pass a bill with just republicans. On a broad thing like this, you need both. And he has put himself with plan b and sort of an impossible position. He has to get these hard right goes to go along with him. And he and the president were going to say were going to pass a deal with the majority of republicans and the majority of democrats in the house and senate, we would get a mainstream deal. I think were going to fall out of the fiscal tree. The big deal for the big deal is at the debt ceiling. Thats when we will have leverage to turn the country around. Congress is now out of session for the christmas holiday. But expect it to be back thursday. Joe, we talked to some of the senators and Congress Last week saying will you come back from vacation . Some of them pretend like they werent going, but i think they really were. If boehners leadership is in question now, chuck schumer, theres an angel on one shoulder and theres a devil on his other shoulder, he would lose it. Chuck wants us to do a deal like obama care where you bring in both sides and you think about all the you know, all the ideas from the republicans, all the ideas and then you adopt a bipartisan plan. Did you read the wall street journal over the weekends . I did. Boehner says ive given you 800 billion. What did it remind you of . Thats some caddie shack. Where spalding walks up to the shack and said i want a cheese birg, milkshake and fries. And his grandfather says, youll get nothing and you will like it. You know what it reminds me of . Elections have consequences. I won. Its not a nice tack to the center where im going to govern for all of you. Are you coming back . Im going to. The jacket is coming off, though, right . Christmas eve and im celebrating. As you know, we had the tree going this weekend with the lights on. Thats so nice. Theres one other thing i sought on that thing over the weekend that you brought us that i was going do oh,no. Did you see mitt romney did not want to run . I saw that. That was in the boston globe. That was a great piece worth reading. Then he found out how bad things were going on his ipad. Yeah. But maybe he didnt want to run because there were times i really kind of thought it looked like he didnt want to run. Yeah, but towards the end, i thought he did. He tried hard. Thanks. Okay. Come over here. In other news, a dock worker strike on the atlantic and coast could be just days away. Port operators have been negotiating with the long shoreman Association Since march. But the two sides are said to be far from closing on a deal that would cover Cargo Handling at 15 ports, a 9d 0day extension to an employment contract. The union has said 15,000 long shoremen could strike a day later. Rick scott sent a letter to president obama asking him to invoke federal law in order to invoke a cooling off period. I dont know what the likelihood of that is. I dont know what the president might do. Do you think he would wow. Thats a lot of red. You step out. You like to step out. You like to make statements, right . Its the holidays. Im aware of that. Youre wearing a red tie today. A shirt and a tie. Thats usually what i go with, some type of shirt, some type of tie. No bells and whistles. This is your thing. Whether you have bracelets one of those things is measuring your heart right right now. How is it . Its measuring my your calorie intake . My pressure goes up when im with you. Well, no, this is the jaw bone. Is it a measure of calories . Calories, walking, sleeping, rem sleep, how much i shept last night. And calories. Calories. If you wore it on your left wrist, would there be less calories, do you know . I will test that for you. Test it out. Gasoline prices. You know what i want to ask you . Do you employ lobbyists at all . No. Not at all . No. But were going to talk to you about what the prospects are. Yeah. In these big deals, people are always throwing muni bonds. And i just wonder, well get to that in a second. Gasoline prices falling more than 10 cents in the last two weeks. The lundberg survey finds that the average price for a gallon of unleaded is 3. 26. Price res expected to rise from here because crude has risen slightly and refiners havent passed all the increase he through in the wholesale gasoline. Its the season for going to the movi movies. The hobbit earning the top spot fokt second weekend in a row. Its domestic total is over 150 million after ten days. And tom cruises action thriller, jack reacher debuted in second place. He kicks a 15. 26 million he got. So we went to the movies this weekend. And we saw this is 40. Not great reviews. Almost dpred depressing a little bit. Almost too realistic. Thats what happens when you return 40. You get a little depressed. Then you hit 50 and then you realize 60 is the new 40. And then you realize any of the alternatives to aging are much worse than aging and you kind of come to grips with that. I had a mixed feeling. Were the reviews actually lousy . Yeah. I wish i had known that before. Paul rudd and and apatose. She has to watch paul rudd make out with his wife constantly when this is all going on. I was thinking about that. And all the kids in the film are appatos kids. Oh, really . Yeah. Hes making the film with his family and its all about anyway, all with his family. Watching you know, i dont know what hes into, but so hes got his wife making out with this guy a lot. Theyre married in the film so, you know, you can hope, right . Dont bring this stuff up. We do have to talk about some other films later. Lets see whats going on with the futures overnight as we set up this trading day ahead of christmas. Dow looks like it will open down 5 points, a little more than that, actually. Nasdaq would be off 8 points, s p 500 off 4. 5 points. Lets check the oil boards for a quick s. E. C. Lets take a look quickly at the 10year note. The yield, 1. 768. I dont know. I dont know. I rephied that mortgage. So im happy at this point. A quick look at the dollar. You can see it there against the yen. 84. 42. Against the euro, 1. 322. And against the pound at 1. 6. Finally, a quick look at gold and were at 1,663. 9. Time fou for the Global Markets report with Louisa Bojesen standing by in london. What can you tell us, louisa . Well, weve got light volume today as anticipated. Happy holidays, everybody. What were seeing here on our european markets map, many markets already closed. You have the euronext markets closing at 12 30. The nordic markets all closed for trades today. Italy closed for trade. The smi closed for trade. Weve got the ftse 1100 a couple of points higher. The cac and the ibex 35 just off marginal marginally, as well. I would like to show you what type of performance weve had on a yeartodate basis. Rising somewhere in the region of 15 since the beginning of this year. You will note that we have had had a bit of a rally heading towards december. The question is whether well see that continue into next year. Looking at a slightly broader base, the 600 index here, yeartodate higher by 15 , as well. Europes largest economy, the German Market seeing some pretty significant gains as well as the dow jones stocks 50 up by 50 . So this brings its up, can it really continue next year . Thats when you want to glance at barons, indicating over the weekend you could be looking at a rally. 20 next year. They singled out a number of stocks that they mentioned next year. By the way, andrew one look like one of the little elves in denmark dressed in my parents garden. Its very sweet. Do you want to look like an elf . I think so. I asked you do you want to look loot like an this. I thought waits a good dwrd, but i dont want to look like an elf. You know what it is . After a while, a blue shirt is boring. You dont want to wow people with the strength and insight of your ideas . I have to do it with my wardrobe. You know, i think he looks fabulous and people say i know any fashion. So you get a thims up umbs up f. Alexander, thank you. Shes focused on the fiscal cliff while many are worried about a yearend selloff which i think youve argued is already happening a bit. Definitely. So where are we . In the last couple of weeks, muni yields have risen. Its start to go change. But what happens is that the latest round of the proposals not only had this 28 deduction, but it would be retroactive. So all mini bonds outstanding, which would be a sacred cow that you would never touch. Throwing the market into real turmoil. And so whats your sense right now, in terms of whats on the table, whats not on the table . Exactly. If there were a table right now, i think people are probably getting away from the idea that there would be this retroactive taxation, essentially. But it still is very, very likely that that 28 cap on deductions will include municipal bonds. And joe asked the right question off camera. This is setting up a right fight between the states and federal government. Yes. We would prefer to sell tax exempt funds when we preferred not to have the value of our bonds go down when were holding them. But its real the governors, mayors and city states who are going to say, hey, this is going to increase our cost of borrowing. Were barely coming out of recession. You cant do this to us. Is there a municipality right now that you know is planning on an issue later in 2013 saying this is going to screw us up in a real way . I dont know of any specifically, but theyre basically all saying it. New york city comes to market multiple times a year. All the old bonds will be type. Is that right . Im going to make the stand and say that they will. But in the last then they become more dear, wont it seems to me. Yeah. But what had happened is that last week and the week before, all of a sudden there was this thought because it had been thrown about that it wouldnt be retroactive. On top of that why wouldnt that cause him to go up . Because that means that the tax, the cap on deductions would be retroactive to all bonds. It wouldnt be retroactive. No. What happened two weeks ago was that had been on the table. That it would be retroactive . Exactly. How can dow that when speak right. When people bought it on the expectations. On top of that sending the market into the additional turmoil, you have all the Brokerage Firms saying, you have huge gains. You have more coming into the market. The question is, given that weakness, given all that selling, are you telling investors get in, get out . What is the message that youve got . There is this strange thing that happens every year called the roll. What is a tenyear maturity that becomes a nineyear maturity on january 1st. And so the yields adjust to 245 nineyear maturity. So the yields absolutely go down. Basically overnight. Is there a muni thats been stellar this year, an absolute winner . California. California . Yeah. This is interesting. A couple of years ago, i was coming on every show and talking to people and people werent touching it. I cant tell you exact yields, but illinois is still hanging in there. Theyre a major issuer of debt. Have you got a loser for us . A little coal in the stocking . Puerto rico. Puerto rico . Puerto rico is just its a sad situation. 67 billion in debt outstanding. Their debt to gdp approaches greecelike levels. And they went so far as to bond out their debt service. Issuing bonds to pay their interest and that is just a true muni bond person. That is like a knife in the heart, pain. Dont go anywhere. Stick around for the rest of the hour. Thank you for being here on this holiday. Glad to be here. What are you looking at . Nothing. The red. Its like orange on camera. It is a little orange. Is this a holiday . You keep saying that. Weve been doing all sorts of holiday things. Really . So it is the holidays . Yes, it is. Ive got to get with it. Anyway, coming up, how much you pay for something online could depend on where your computer is located. First, though i know. Attention, boys and girls and santa fans everywhere. In a holiday tradition in north american air Space Defense demand or norad is ready to help you track the jolly old elf and his reindeer. The funniest line in vacation, the movie, christmas where theyre at the dinner table and clark says that santa has been spotted coming across the border up north. And his cousin had to go, are you serious, clark . Do you remember that part . Cousin eddie, randy quaid, says, are you serious . Go online and track the sleighs progress at norad. Org. When you have diabetes. Your doctor will say get smart about your weight. Thats why theres glucerna hunger smart shakes. They have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. [ male announcer ] glucerna hunger smart. A smart way to help manage hunger and diabetes. What starts with adding a friend. Could end with adding a close friend. The lexus december to remember sales event is on. This is the pursuit of perfection. Welcome back to squawk box. Making headlines, this is pretty interesting for those who need to do lastminute christmas shopping. The amount of money you pay for an item online could depend on your location. The wall street journal reporting investigation this morning that it found that the staples website displayed different prices to people after statementi i establishmenting their location. Among other things, the center appeared to consider the persons distance from a rival brick and mortar store. Offering different price toes different people is legal with a xu exceptions. Some sites give discounts based on whether or not a person was using a mobile dwees, for example. Orbitz says a person searching for hotels from a web browser or android phones would see discounts for as much as 50 off the list price. Basically theyre saying if youre at staples and youre 20 miles from the next guy, its harder for you to get there, were going to charge you more. Orbitz thinks that if you have an iphone, youre going to be more willing to do discounts or less willing. Hopefully its whatever its going to be market based, hopefully. And i think of one example would be housing prices. Theres no way that you can expect housing prices on the east coast or the new york city area. Youre going to buy a 1 million house for 200,000. Its just the money people make a lot more money in certain areas than in other areas. I got laura an iphone for christmas this weekend. A 5 . A 5. I hope shes not watching. No, she probably isnt. Maybe she is. One of the first apps she downloads is called the amazon price checker. Do you know what this is . You take your phone up to a bar tag in any store. And then theyll match it right there. Its a price match thing. So a price match. But how that really changes retail, right . And the internet has been a huge, you know, its been a marketplace enhancer for everybody. Its driven all prices lower. And i think that will help keep down inflation. Theres so much online sales that we dont know it, tracking our behavior, if youre sent from a certain site, that site gets a payment for sending you there. Its kind of amazing. You know, andrew, i was do you remember last week when i said i would consider buying a blackberry 10 or whatever it was because i said i because i like the keyboard. Theater. The guy was in waterloo. I made one joke about it. It turns out that the blackberry types now are as bad as some of the and the appleoonians, the iomegans. It was a 140 stock. So these are the people that buy like 100 shares when it drops. And if they perceive anything, they go on this concerted thing. I looked at twitter and there was this one guy who aggregated all of his friends and he has a crackberry. And then they bombard it with you know, and thurston was fine. Remember when he first came would be he said he wasnt going to change anything. So even though i said im not going to switch to an iphone, they dont take that part. They take the reference that ive said that he was coming from waterloo where no pole leeanns last but i sense the same type of nastiness as in the past. As they cling to i dont know. Whatever. Not very smart. To write in and then theyve got to hear about it. Im going back to the iphone now. Are you . Yeah. Forget it. Im not going to get a blackberry 10 now. In sports news, the baltimore ravens. Man, if you saw this game. They look so good. Either they look good or the giants are bad. Afc champions, the ravens beating the giants, 3414. Watching eli, theyre going to be Getting Better at this time of the season. I dont even know if he completed he barely completed a pass. They were dropping passes, they were sacking him. The giants got 186 total yards. I think the ravens had like 500 yards. The giants are out of contention for the nfc east title. Now theyre going to need a lot of help to make the playoffs. Not so with the bengals. Did you see who they beat . Tony frattos team. Tony will be on later for the steelers. Seattle earning a playoff berth. This was interesting, routing San Francisco 4213. Seattle can win the nfc with a win and a San Francisco loss next week. The niners are already in the playoffs. And the Indianapolis Colts and rookie quarterback andrew luck will also going to the playoffs. Luck broke the nfl single season rookie record for passing yards yesterday throwing Fourth Quarter touchdown to lift the colts over the chiefs. As i mentioned, in the most important game of the day, cincinnati earned a playoff spot with a 1310 win in pittsburgh. This was amazing. Ben roth hisberg were just a couple of seconds left threw an interception. Cincinnati got it back to where they could kick a field goal. Can we mention the i dont know why you would. I went to this is games. And it was awful. Awful. Mackelroy was awful. I saw you on tv at the game because you were the only one in the stands at the game. It was pretty empty. Did you get a 50 discount on the tickets . I do not. My friend has season tickets. Oh, man. Hes thilg thinki hes thinking what did i the giants looked just as bad as the jets. You go to a lot of jets games, dont you . Ive been to one. But tebow i saw tebow. He was not a happy camper. They just wont use him. Ira joins us from the cme. When are you going home today . Youll be there until like 1 00 or something, ira . 12 15. Is that a twohour thing in chicago . One hour. I thought the markets closed at 2 00 today. Im going to go home and watch Kenny Anderson and bob thumpy. And chris collinsworth. My dad had season tickets and thats who we used to see, bob trumpy and Kenny Anderson. Great cook. Remember him from university of cincinnati. It will be thin trading. What happens this week . Its all dependent on i guess now a small deal. Do you feel better that its in the hands of the senate, ira sfp. Oh, yeah. I feel great. Were at the point, i think people realize, well, if we go over, theyre going to have now a resolution, if its in mid january, fine, its in mid january. There are many other things going on in this world. They will come to some type of agreement. And if they want to drive it over the cliff, okay, but then its going to put the spending right thats not necessarily a bad thing. Ken langone was not talking about the same thing last week. Now spending will come front and center. Weve got something that weve delayed for quite a while. It seems theres an agreement that they have to raise some revenue, but theyre going to have to attack the spending at some point. If this gets them there faster, its not a bad thing. Merry christmas to you. Merry christmas to you. Coming up, why some say microsoft could be disappointed by windows 8. Plus, tech sector predictions for the new year when squawk returns. With scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. Fully customize it for your trading process from thought to trade, on every screen. And all in real time. Which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. Try our easytouse scottrader streaming quotes. Its another reason more investors are saying. [ all ] im with scottrade. Its another reason more investors are saying. To the best vacation sp all the gulf it doesnt matter which of our great states folks visit. Mississippi, alabama, louisiana or florida, theyre gonna love it. Shaul, your alabama hospitality is incredible. Thanks, karen. Love your mississippi outdoors. I vote for your florida beaches, dawn. Bill, this louisiana seafood is delicious. Were having such a great year on the gulf, weve decided to put aside our rivalry. Now is the perfect time to visit anyone of our states. The beaches and waters couldnt be more beautiful. Take a boat ride, go fishing or just lay in the sun. Weve got coastline to explore and wildlife to photograph. And theres world class dining with our world famous seafood. So for a great vacation this year, come to the gulf. Its all fabulous but i give florida the edge. Right after mississippi. You mean alabama. Say louisiana or theres no dessert. This invitation is brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. Good morning. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc. Becky quick is off today. Alexander lebenthal, its a shortened trading session for Christmas Eve. U. S. Equity markets will close at is oclock p. M. Eastern. Bond, currency and Commodity Trading will end early in asia. Exchanges in japan, indonesia and the philippines were closed. In europe, only the uk, french, dutch and spanish stock markets are open and theyre all going to close early. And making headlines, in New York Times is reporting that microsoft is not enjoying a sales boost from its new software. Historically, a new operating system from the country has led to an increase in sales. As people simultaneously bought a new computer. But the company says this hasnt been the case with windows 8. The article cites a tough consumer environment in general and strong competition from rivals apple and amazon. And joining us now to talk more about this and whats going on in tech land, brian white, he covers tech and Capital Markets and hes coming to us from hong kong this morning, i believe. Good morning to you. Yeah, good morning, andrew. I dont know if you had a chance to see this that New York Times piece this morning. But i dont know what it portends not only for microsoft but for the other players and others that sell windows devices. Well, ill tell you what, you know, we went to taiwan and china in october and the buzz around windows 8 fell off a cliff from the june time period. So theres a lot of enthusiasm in june at the show in taipei. And by october, there was no enthusiasm. So i think a lot of the momentum had been lost and a lot of companies told me, look, its really a second half of 2013 story. So what does that mean, not only for microsoft were but for the hardwaremaker . Are being buying products from dell and the like and buying the windows 7 version or are they turning to google and mac . Whats happening . More and more consumers are turning to smartphones and tablet devices and i think a lot of the hardware vendors are saying, you know what . When we do a refresh, lets wait until a year out, second half of 2013. Its probably not worth the investment today, especially with a lot of aggressive tablets coming out, including the ipad mini. So, you know, that i think they were planning on doing a more aggressive ramp, probably around ultra book with windows 8. And then they decided to delay it until next year. Look out a little bit into 2013 for us in tech land. What are the two or three things we have to watch for . I think, you know, in general, it will not be a robust environment. It will be premuted, like weve seen. We initiated coverage on ibm on friday. And we think thats a great way to play kind of a muted environment, a company that i think will gain share from Hewlett Packard and some of their troubles and plays into the big trend. So the big trends are still there. The ramp in the mobile internet, the ramp of Cloud Computing and kind of the early stages of big data. And ibm plays into the cloud and big data very, very well. Theyve got a nice, recurring revenue base. Before we let you go, youre getting into ibm, but given that thesis, what do you get out of it . Well, i think Hewlett Packard will still be a challenge company. I think some of the more cyclical tech plays, we covered some of the tech supply vendors. We recently put a sell on lg display. Some of the ems companies we have a sell on. I think theres a lot of these companies, lower quality, that in the last couple of months have rallied at the end of the year, maybe on short covering, maybe on some profit taking on shorts. But i think you want to play into those three trends. So, you know, apple plays well into that. Ibm plays well into that. Companies like emc play well into these trends. So i would be very focused on strong, secular trends and not on cyclical recovery plays. Brian, have fun in hong kong and Merry Christmas. Thank you. If you have comments or questions about anything you see here on squawk, email us at squawk cnbc. Com. Coming up, an American Made business, the ceo of dock popcorn joins us to talk about Commodity Prices to the fiscal cliff and how that affects some of the other kinds of popcorn when squawk box returns. Rns. Customer erin swenson bought so, im happy. Today. Sales go up. Im happy. It went out today. Im happy. What if shes not home . together she wont be happy. Use ups she can get a text alert, reroute. Even reschedule her package. Its ups my choice. Are you happy . Im happy. Im happy. Im happy. Im happy. Im happy. Happy. Happy. Happy. Happy. together happy. I love logistics. Time for citi price rewind. Because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. And you really dont want to pay more than you have to. Only citi price rewind automatically searches for the lowest price. And if it finds one, you get refunded the difference. Just use your citi card and register your purchase online. Have a super sparkly day ok. [ male announcer ] now all you need is a magic carriage. Citi price rewind. Start saving at citi. Com pricerewind. Cmon, michael get in the game [ male announcer ] dont have the hops for hoops with your buddies . Lost your appetite for romance . And your mood is on its way down. You might not just be getting older. You might have a treatable condition called low testosterone or low t. Millions of men, fortyfive or older, may have low t. So talk to your doctor about low t. Hey, michael [ male announcer ] and step out of the shadows. Hi how are you . [ male announcer ] learn more at isitlowt. Com. [ laughs ] hey welcome back to squawk all week. Cnbc, we are focusing on outlooks and predictions for the new year. This morning, robert frank takes a look at luxury in 2013. More money . More problems. The words of the late, great notorious vip perfectly sum up the fortunes and fears ahead for the wealthy in 2013. The number of millionaire households will inch toward 9 million, approaching its alltime high. But wealth will come under attack from taxes and from politics. Income taxes will likely go to 37 or 38 while Capital Gains and dividends will get that added health care tax. The occupy movement will not return with the same strength, but talk of fat cats and p will iticrats in the media will drive the wealthy further into hiding and reduce conspicuous consumption. The rich will put less money into u. S. Stocks and more into assets. Funded by the overseas rich with some homes selling for more than 100 million. Luxury spending will remain weak largely because of weakness in china. Bright spots will be high end luxuries and experiences like travel and entertainment. Wealth will become quieter. Call it stealth wealth. The big spending in big luxuries will be behind closed doors and kitchens like this could become the new status symbol. Du that report from your kitchen, is that how that i didnt no, i didnt see that. I dont remember him being there. No, our americanmade company today makes what is considered to be the most popular snack food in the world. Rob is cogoed founder of dock popcorn. Hi, guys. Its actually i always thought orville reddenbacker would be hard to pass. Then i thought of the pictures of orville, he had the sweater. But how did you if you had glasses on, you could play they both wear ties. Orville wore a red sweater and a bow tie. Three years, thats good. We left your area, moved out to boulder, colorado, the mecca of food and started franchising just in 2009 been and in those three years, weve become the largest popcorn retailer, literally, in the world and eats just been an amazing, exciting ride. So youre based in boulder . We are based in boulder, colorado, and we have now 300 locations and development. So were in 30 states and passing out smiles and great products to folks all over this beautiful country. Are you out near Celestial Seasonings in boulder . Our office is pretty close to there. Do you know the area . Oh, yeah. I went to school there and i took a tour of Celestial Seasonings. Next time were going to take a tour of doc popcorn. We have to get you in and popping, absolutely. Hopefully you guys will be indulging a little bit later with all those flavors sitting on your desks out there. I see i want to tell you, we have a famous former ceo, maybe the most famous one in the world, im not going to mention who he is who sends popcorn to some of his favorite people. And my wife loves it but the caramel popcorn, she says, if you eat that youre insane because its i mean, how fattening is caramel popcorn. Thats what you loved and that was your idea, to figure out a way to make it where its just not like death, right . Exactly right. And the idea was to make it more edible, more indull gent. Ours is grab and go, quick serve. You just hit on one of the keys. Theres Movie Theater popcorn on one end of the spectrum. Then theres a heavily coated candied product on the other side. We are different from that. We use all natural products. We use corn oil. We infuse all of our popcorn with these amazing ingredients. People come to our mall stores. They will literally buy a bag, eat it and buy another bag. So it isnt that really heavy product. Its something thats much lighter and more indull against. Rob, just as an aside, in a big bucket, lets say you load up the butter at a Movie Theater. Youre talking like 1500, 2,000 calories, arent you . Yeah. You might not even make it out of the theater. Your heart might explode. For that type of popcorn, thats the issue and thats kind of what weve i think thats why weve exploded because weve done this so differently. And people try our product and theyre like, wow, this is really different. This is really amazing, you know . Are your franchisees having a hard time getting credit like we hear about so much . You know, its a good point. We will like you know, the credit markets were very liberal, as everybody knows. And they really got very unbelievably constricted. Hopefully were sitting somewhere in the middle soon. We call them pop pryors, by the way. Theyre out there in the field bringing our brand to folks, serving up smiles every day, giving out bags of doc popcorn. So i just want to theyve been getting credit lately, but it has been a bit constricted. Thats great. Youre creating jobs, this is the way its supposed to be done. And the biggest popcorn retailer in the world. I dont really understand how this happened. Its healthier popcorn. And its gluten free, which is the big thing. I think the other part of that, its if you think about whats happened in the world of food commodities, and i know you guys are talking about that, you know, in the 50s, mcdonalds came around and did hamburgers differently. And then starbucks came around and did coffee differently. Were doing the same thing with popcorn. Weve made a simple Business Model efficient, affordable, fun. Did you think it could be this big when you started it . You know, that was the dream, but it took us six years to really figure it out. I thought it was going to happen overnight. We often say, you know, ten years to an overnight success. Weve been we learned and explored and figured this out and then we rolled out franchising. Because we had done that homework and done that learning, it happened big. But it took a little longer than we thought, to be honest. Can we get it in inew york city . Were opening up all over new york. Were looking in new york city right now. Were at the palisades mall. Were dotting all around you. You can order it online at any time and hopefully well get it to you in the city. And renee, your wifes name is renee, right . Yes. That was spot on and that was awesome. You guys are great. Thanks for having us and happy holidays. I just want to say, you know, america is an awesome, amazing place. I know things have been tough and theres a lot of kind of back and forth about politics. But its pretty amazing, the opportunities that we all get here. And that we just weve been dreaming big and thats great. And its been awesome. You live where theres 300 days of sunshine a year. Not a lot of folks know that, too. Snow in the mountains. Boulder is heaven. You were smart to go to school there. I wish i did. Its the greatest place. Well be out there in march. Maybe well stop by and take a tour. We would love to see you and we so appreciate this opportunity to be with you guys. Coming up, attention road warriors. Are you a frequent flyer . If you think you have a lot of miles under your belt, you have not seen anything yet. Wait for this. Until you hear from our next guest, United Airlines top flyer of all of 2012. Omnipotent of opportunity. You know how to mix business. With business. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above. And still pay the midsize price. I could get used to this. [ male announcer ] yes, you could business pro. Yes, you could. Go national. Go like a pr yes, you could. Sfx sounds of african drum and flute look whos back. Again . Its embarrassing its embarrassing we can see you carl. We can totally see you. Come on youre better than this. All that prowling around. Yeah, youre the king of the jungle. Have you thought about going vegan carl . Hahaha you know folks who save hundreds of dollars by switching to geico sure are happy. How happy are they jimmy . Happier than antelope with nightvision goggles. Nice get happy. Get geico. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. [ male announcer ] this december, remember you can stay in and share something. Or you can get out there and actually share something. The lexus december to remember sales event is on. This is the pursuit of perfection. Welcome back to squawk box. If youre watching this show this morning from an airplane and theres a couple that you can do it, jetblue, delta and others, you might recognize our next guest, actually, though, hed be on a different airline. Tom stuker is an auto sales and Management Consultant who holds the title as United Airlines top flyer of the year. Over 1 million miles. Flown. Just this year . Bis where the heck are you going . A lot of places. How many days were you in the air . They said if i took off january 1st, and flew the million miles id land somewhere on the 73rd day of the year or Something Like that. What do you get does united now rearrange their schedule for you . How does this work . No, no, no. I go to a lot i do a lot of work in australia. I take a lot of vacations. I took a lot of vacations. For free i assume now . No, no, no. I use my miles for family members and friends. How many miles do you have . That ive earned . That youve earned . Ive earned over 50 million miles. Wow. Yeah. And ive earned probably 4 million miles this year or something. So whats the biggest perk . Well, theres a lot of them. Im Global Service on united. Its a top tier of leet flyers and they take unbelievable care of their top tiers Global Services. Just unbelievable. You were saying off air that theyll kick somebody off a plane for you . They dont kick somebody off a plane. And i dont want anybody kicked off a plane. Ive had a situation where i absolutely had to get from point a to point b, and somehow, there was a misunderstanding, because i do fly first to open up a seat in first class, they talked very nicely to one of the passengers, probably offered him, i dont know what, flights to hawaii or something, just to accommodate me in first class. You automatically get up graded now . I mean, do you have to pay for first class . Or is it all coach i buy first class because its important for me to be comfortable with all the flying i do. Like i said, people say oh, how can you do it . I fly first class, and united, by the way, they have cnbc, squawk box, on the flight this morning. They do. Yes, they do. Quite a few flights that show your show. What do you mean you fly first class . You dont pay first class . I negotiate a rate because of the extreme amount of travel i do. Does anyone really pay those first i mean people do. Not as much. They obviously upgrades is a very popular commodity upgrade frequent flyers . You can upgrade with miles. You can copay. Theres a lot of different ways to upgrade. The average flyer kind of ge gets kind of has been spoiled through, you know, before united went bankrupt spoiled . I dont think any flyer feels spoiled. No, no, i wouldnt say spoiled. But maybe a lot more people feel entitled because, you know, the airlines have been so competitive with double miles and triple miles and stuff like that. Everybody wants to fly from coast to coast for 199. When you surpassed a million miles like in the movie up in the air did they make an announcement . Did somebody come over to you . What happened . Actually, i fly under the radar quite a bit. You know but did they know you when you walked on the plane . Theres certain flights. Theres certain routes like, from l. A. To sydney that i take often and i know everybody on the plane. I know the whole crew and i get unbelievable service. I mean, ill be sleeping through the night and every hour on the hour they put a fresh glass of ice water and lemon by my seat. Even if im sleeping theyll replace it throughout the night. Why are you selling auto products in australia . I do consulting. Management consulting, and sales training. And back in the 80s, i was a speaker at the National Convention and some australian theaters came to my talk. They said when are you coming to australia . I said when are you inviting me . They said now. Ive been to australia over 250 times going back and forth. My best friend lives in australia. Its the nicest country in the world. Any tips for mere commoner flyers . Whats that . Any tips for us of how to negotiate better with the airlines . How to get Better Service . Better service, you know, what goes around comes around. I think if people are a little more patient, you know, the people that you check in with, you know, they didnt create the snow i mean ive been at the counter where people are yelling at the agents because of the snow and stuff like that. So, you get along you go a lot further with saying nice things. You put your bags under . You get bags lost . A million miles. Ive flown on united for over 6,000 6,500 flights and ive never, ever lost my bag once. Ive had it delayed one in awhile. You get like a canceled or delayed flight do they put you up in like the ritzcarlton or something . No, just local hotels at the airport that they accommodate me in. Thank you for being here. Happy holidays thanks a bunch. Very cool story. Thanks, guys. Alexandra, i dont think we have time for a final word . Weve got a few we have 40 seconds. I still so aside from being nice, is there anything i can do . Because im usually waiting for the upgrade, and sadly if you had any comments. Get yourself one of the credit cards. The credit card goes a long way towards getting now that was it. Thank you. Im fascinated with this. All right, coming up, beyond thanks for coming intoday. Political talking points. Two seasoned washington strategists join forces to deal with the major sticking points on the fiscal cliff negotiations. Find us online, youll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. So when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. Because personal Service Starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. Our support teams are nearby, ready to help. Its no wonder so many investors are saying. [ all ] im with scottrade. Fiscal cliff talks heading into the 11th hour. U. S. Economy is at stake here. You cannot pass a bill with just republicans. On a broad thing like this, you need both. But will anyone rise above and get it done . A debate from both sides of the aisle. Plus guest host Jason Trennert on the impact for the markets. The final details on retail. The winners and losers as lastminute shoppers make one final rush to get the latest deals. I got it. I got it. The second hour of squawk box starts right now. Chestnuts roasting on an open fire. Jack frast nipping at your nose. Yuletide carols good morning. Welcome to squawk box on cnbc. Love that sweater. Thats unbelievable. Weve got to fade in and out between the fire and that sweater. Thats joe kernen, im andrew ross sorkin. Becky quick is probably happily off at this point. In studios with his,000s on the market and the fiscal cliff this morning, Jason Trennert. That tie. Hes got the red tie. Santa tie. Take a look at the futures, see how this half day of trading is setting up. Looks like the dow will open down about 18 points, s p 500 will be off about three points and the nasdaq off close to 10 points. Lets get you through some of the quick morning headlines. It is an abbreviated trading day for u. S. Stocks ahead of the christmas 408 day. Trading ends at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time. Japanese stocks did not trade today and the german and italian markets were among those in europe taking the day off. The uk was open. Mexicos grupo bimbo its right. Grupo bimbo reportedly considering a bid for the hostess snack take. Grupo bimbo that gets you, doesnt it . Youre like in fourth grade. Because its i cant even because it says bimbo . I cant its mexican, andrew. I know. You cant even get through the story because it says bimbo . Its been a tough morning. Im going to make it tougher. Considered the company an unlikely bidder because of possible as long as were in a good mood. Because youre reading grupo bimbo. I said Orville Redenbacher. I was wrong something reminded me of Orville Redenbach redenbacher. He did not wear it was red suspenders. And a red tie. Okay. So we had did you see the popcorn guy . I did not see the popcorn guy. Just saw the million man guy. The million mile man guy. I could have sworn i remembered a red something or other. Ill make you deal, how about suspenders and a bow tie on valentines day. Thats an idea. Youre already married, right . I am. So you cant really doesnt really matter. Doesnt really matter. Ill just you mean youre obviously not playing the field anymore because reckless abandon what you come in here. Anyway, are we down with the grupo bimbo story . I love that. I mean that is immature, is it not, jason . I can understand it, though. On national tv, a Business Network where were really serious you cant get through that story. Because the name is bimbo. Tata. Thats another one. Can you handle that one . Im better with that. Lets talk quickly about gasoline prices. Theyve fallen to their lowest level in a year. Lundberg survey showing prices falling almost 12 per gallon over the last two weeks. Thats down to just under 3. 26. However, analysts say that higher crude prices likely mean this trend is coming to an end. Im sorry no, but, and their main product at bimbo is going to be the twinkie. Which is also sort of a sometimes twinkie is used as a bimbo. A bimbo. I think they may have seen some synergy there. Its the day before christmas. All through the house, no fiscal cliff resolution, joining us from pittsburgh, tony fratto, hamilton play strategys managing director and former White House Press secretary, also a cnbc contributor. And from d. C. , kiki mclean, porter novelli, who had a much better outcome for the redskins, kiki, and i im sorry, i have to start with that. I already know you have to. Im not a cowboys fan oh, you are . Yeah. I had to do that with tony. Tony is going to Say Something about titletown. You always do that when i Say Something about pittsburgh. Im from cincinnati. How are you going to defuse this im not. The thing about football, joe, is that the better team always wins. And your team played a terrific game yesterday. They made fewer mistakes. Didnt score an offensive touchdown in doing it but you go to the playoffs, and i wish you great luck, actually. You know what . At least its not baltimore. You know what, tony. Its obvious youre a republican strategist because youve had to give this speech a lot recently, about the better team winning, and we got to just accept defeat and everything. So you all practice up after the last couple of years, arent you . Maybe the last couple elections. Thats what i mean. Its all about making defeat honorable. Yeah, exactly. Kiki, i want to ask both of you, because andrew brought this up earlier, is that okay, boehner says i gave the 800 billion, and you know, we were hoping for a little bit of a tax in the center and a little bit of a president that wants to be, you know, the president of everyone, and we got, i won, you get nothing. Were back to where we were. Were back to obama care. Its going through, whether you like it or not, this is the way its going to be. Heres the deal. I am wary of sort of reporting without context, and all of that. I dont doubt that the report is how it went down. But without context, i think people read into a lot of things, the conversation that none of us were present for. But heres what is absolutely crucial. I think there are two things to remember out of this deal. What i heard the speaker say last week, and i think the speakers trying. I think hes trying but he cant get this conference together, i heard him say that even on a vote he wanted he couldnt get them there because there were people who felt they would go home and it would be perceived that they had raised taxes. And i heard him shrug his shoulders and say, well theres that. Theres nothing more i can do. Thats governing from fear. As opposed to governing from leadership. And somebody else on a show one day said a lot of these republicans really believe, this is what they really, really believe in. Thats great. But at some point one side or the other, and in fact both, are going to have to give a little. Kiki, i would be i would think you would be sensitive to talking about leadership. I mean, when you say that, you dont hear irony . Thats the maybe its just the other side, the republicans talking about president obama, but, you in the last six, the last five years, have you seen a president that comes together and leads both . Yeah. You have . Have you, tony . Ive seen a president who went out and campaigned on a certain series of things that he believed were important for the country and that he wanted to do, and he went and he pursued them. And thats leadership. Hes pursuing them. But i think everybodys pursuing what they have to pursue. Youve been listening to us for the last few months. I think weve been saying that this is probably going to get done in january. I think Austan Goolsbee said the same thing. Basically anybody whos worked in the white house has said this is probably going to get done in january and theres a lot of talk going back and forth now, on negotiating that i really dont believe is going to get anywhere fl we get, you know, into january and perhaps the fiscal cliff. Its going to be easier for both sides, not just boehner, but for both sides, to give but tony, how far into january are we talking january 2nd, 3rd, 4th . Are we talking later in the month . Im thinking later in the month actually. I dont think its going to get done very, very quickly. Because it is a very complicated, negotiation. If were going to do anything real on entitlement cuts, or do anything real to deal with some of the sequestered spending thats going to have to go into place, and we have all the tax extenders to do, too. Its possible that a deal could get done before december 31st. I just think its very, very unlikely. Its much easier in january. But the challenges you have, for late january are the very same challenges you have now except for four extra weeks. And that is whos willing to look up and say but kiki, you might get the markets to actually move on this. Right . Right now, theres a disincentive not to negotiate in part because the market keeps saying we think youre going to get a deal to the. And i dont know why the markets through this at all. And you know that. They have mr. Boehners conference has disrecorded the whole conference. I think people should disregard, at least ive got my pin on, people should disregard what the markets do in any one day or, you know, for a few days. You are rising above, tony. Because kiki, i understand that the president has has constituents that are still real and a base thats still really angry about the last time that he extended the bush tax cuts. So i understand that any promise, hes going to get hammered from the left and he just won. But, i mean, tony, for you, youre unable to say that maybe he hasnt been the most bipartisan leader thats been in the white house . I mean, go back and look at some i mean, these two sides, this is the nastiest its been and its not going to get any better for the next four years. No way. I dont think hes been particularly bipartisan, but, you know, he started off with controlling of both houses of congress. So, you know, im sure he felt he didnt have to be bipartisan the first two years. He got nothing done. We got done the last two and now were getting nothing done starting heres the deal joe, im not giving him a pass. Im just saying that he felt that he had control. And now there needs to be a recognition that the republicans control the house of representatives, they controlled it for two consecutive elections, and theyre probably going to control it for the next election. Kiki, theres people that love gridlock. Its great if you love gridlock. There are people that like it. Heres the problem with gridlock. All the things that you obviously know that you dont need me on Christmas Eve to tell you. But in light of the challenges that our country faces, and i dont mean just economic. Look at the tragedies that our people have experienced in the last few months. We cant go on and deal with those until these people get together, and deal with this basic infrastructure and the economic and Global Outlook for us that we have to have. And its really unconscionable. I said last week, as members of congress were getting on planes flying home, that i hope they carry the burden on their shoulders that the American People are carrying every day. And when we talk about setting sort of everybodys comfort zone with lets settle it at the end of january. Or lets have a 90day window, there are hundreds of thousands of people that, as individuals, will fall off the cliff over this. Fall off the cliff, i mean basically for both sides. Its unacceptable for both sides. Not just the congressional guys flying home but as the president s jetting to hawaii. You want it on his shoulders, too . Yes, absolutely. All right, thats fair. What were talking about, kiki, though, is returning to clinton tax rates, basically, right . What were talking about thats the armageddon that were talking about is returning to clinton youre not rising above now. Now you sound a cliff jumper now, known. Which are you . All im saying is that heres the deal to deal with these issues, we can deal with them in between christmas specials. The only problem is youre returning to president clinton tax rates, youre not returning to president clinton spending. And you have 16 trillion in debt. All of which, 60 of it matures in the next three years. So this is this is so much more of a precarious position, and so that should have a less impact. Heres what this requires on the markets and on the economy. Heres what this requires, guys, ultimately. This president doesnt ever have to run for election again, for anything. Right . What this requires are a group of men and women on capitol hill who will stand up and say, im going to go head, and im going to put my own political future at risk, do what will move us forward. There are husbands and wives all over the country who disagree on an issue. And they sit at their Kitchen Table and they say, no, i believe strongly in my point of view. But eventually one side gives and says, okay, lets try it your way. If all we do is stay at the Kitchen Table and neither one is willing to give, we can keep electing a new crop and they do the same thing again and again and again. At some point, we have to not allow perfection to get in the way of the good, and most importantly, these men and women have to put their own political future at risk, and be willing to take the bullet for the decisions they make to run this country. That will happen in january. Why january, tony, versus now . Why january versus now . Kiki, you need a button . I dont remember weve got to go. I dont remember if youve been on. We want to have you back. Tony youre obviously a contributor. Well get you a button kiki because you want us to rise above. Thats what were trying to do. Right. You make a great case. Happy holidays, Merry Christmas. Happy holidays. Merry christmas. Everyone at the cliff. Happy holidays. Coming up, Jason Trennerts 2013 predictions for where you should be putting your money. And lastminute shoppers are going to want to stay tuned for the retail update. Who has the hot items and where you can still get them. [ male announcer ] this december, remember you can stay in and like something. Or you can get out there and actually like something. The lexus december to remember sales event is on. This is the pursuit of perfection. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. So we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, inbranch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. Our teams have the information you want when you need it. Its another reason more investors are saying. [ all ] im with scottrade. Welcome back to squawk. Lets focus on the markets. Our guest host Jason Trennert, so what are we going to do . You got a plan . I dont have a plan. Because i think were all guessing. I mean, ill tell you my best guest, my best guess is that were going to have what a way to start a segment. I say you have a plan, you dont have a plan. No, we dont have a plan. We dont have a plan in washington. Nominal gdp growth is 4 which would be Something Like recession in any other time over the past 50 or 60 years. So youre already recessionlike types of you mean nominal levels . Nominal is, you know, real plus inflation. Right. And the fiscal cliff business is a big deal. Its a potentially big game changer. I didnt think there was a chance we would go over really until the last couple of days. Now im thinking there could be a bungee jump where you go over for a couple days and come back. If youre a market timer and you believe in your bungee do you think theres going to be an opportunity . Absolutely. Because i truly believe. The good news is, is this is setting ourselves up for true entitlement and tax reform in 2013. It could be six months from now. It could be a very difficult first six months. Youre looking for a baby deal now . Theres probably going to have to be a baby deal, partly because of amt. You cannot retro actively fix amt. That would hit millions of people. Its a very, very big deal. Very, very costly. Everyone would get blamed for it. Then theres another things that are part of the deal that you could wait for. Payroll tax, thats 160 million. We have obama care taxes. We know those are going through. The payroll tax number going up again . Payroll tax, i think theyre not going to extend it. So that goes up sooner or later they have to go up. Thats 160 billion dont we need that money . Funding Social Security. So its very likely that that tax cut will not be extended into the new year. So theres a chance you have a mild recession, even in real terms, in the first half of next year. The good news, i think, my big prediction, ive had for awhile for whatever its worth, i think were developing a new nifty 50 in this country of very, very Strong Companies that are almost bond proxies. And i know a lot of people think theyre expensive, but theres no other alternative. Theres no other place to go. Is the market priced appropriately for your estimation no, i dont think. For the first half of 2013. If you look at bottom of analyst estimates for 2013 theyre still using 113, 114 for operating earnings, an 11 increase. Thats with Profit Margins to standard deviations above the mean. Its not going to happen. Your recession comes irrespecti irrespective i think you have a mild recession, almost irrespective. If you go over the cliff it ices it. Its over. Theres other things that are going to go on. Were going to run up against the debt ceiling. Thats another biggie. Likely to be part of the deal. That means more wrangling when we get into the new year. Also brings the Credit Rating agencies into play in the next year. I mean, its a mess. It couldnt be much worse. I mean, there will be some shortterm catches here. The bottom line is theres nothing thats happening thats going to inspire business and Consumer Confidence in the new year. One thing that worries me, too, about the new year, is that i think most people, this issue has been really a rich persons problem, or a business persons problem. You think its its everyones problem, especially if the payroll tax goes away. Im sorry, thats the way im looking at it. Still to come. The Political Drama unfolding in italy and why the world is watching. Plus investing predictions you cant afford to mix. A closer look at the Energy Sector and fine out how you could make money maybe in that sector in 2013. In that time thereve been some good days. And some difficult ones. But, through it all, weve persevered, supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. So why should our anniversary matter to you . Because for 200 years, weve been helping ideas move from ambition to achievement. And the next great idea could be yours. Executor of efficiency. You can spot an amateur from a mile away. While going shoeless and metalfree in seconds. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above, and still pay the midsize price. Now this. Will work. [ male announcer ] just like you, business pro. Just like you. Go national. Go like a pro. He loves risk. But whether hes climbing everest, scuba diving the Great Barrier reef with sharks, or jumping into the market, he goes with people he trusts, which is why he trades with a company that doesnt nickel and dime him with hidden fees. So he can worry about other things, like what the market is doing and being ready, no matter what happens, which isnt rocket science. Its just common sense, from td ameritrade. Italys mario monti announcing he would consider seeking a second term as italian Prime Minister if approached by allies that are committed to actually backing his reforms. Michelle carusocabrera joins us on set. You can see that andrew was taking some shots. A new camera. Im so used to it wherever i go. Andrew, weve got the fire behind you. Its summer cute. The sweater. Yeah. But its an orange i dont understand why its orange. Its hal weeb. Its a red sweater. Look at it. I know its coming a little bit orangey. On tv. Okay. Lovely. Thank you. Love the guys in the control room. So heres italy. Silvio berlusconi. Your intro was about mario monti which is all true. Silvio berlusconi, the former Prime Minister of italy my favorite. Thank goodness for Silvio Berlusconi. Look at his hair. What is he, 76 . 76. He just sat down with cnbc italy over the weekend. Silvio berlusconi says he does not want to run for Prime Minister, but, he is obligated to, because the country needs him so desperately. He is the only one that can bring together 40 of the people who vote for him, so that way the left does not control italy. He could not get 40 , could he . Or could he . I dont know if he could get 40 . He thinks he can get more than anybody else. Really . Yes. Now the question is, 40 isnt enough once youre in a parliament, right, because of a parliamentary system and two other parties that used to support him no longer do. Its not clear what they would ultimately do, would they really link to the left . Its hard to say. More than italy, remember, they would never agree with this, but theyre far more dramatic than southern italy. As someone that just likes global politics, i like him. Oh, hes so fun. On the world stage. He was sentenced to prison last week. He also minor thats what cabrini said, dont worry about that. He also got he also got engaged last week. Yeah, to a 27yearold. Hes going up in the age scale. He is. The last one was 17. The last one was 17. So now hes 27. The other thing, der spiegel the german magazine had the ten most dangerous people for the euro. And what was interesting was, Silvio Berlusconi, because he likes to hang out with younger people, he was the only older person younger girls. Only older person in that list. All the other people that are very skeptical of the euro are younger people. Berlusconi stands alone as one of the older people thats skeptical of it which strikes me as something thats dangerous for the future of the euro. He said very specifically, do you support the euro. He said he wants more europe, not less of it. He just doesnt believe in all the austerity policies that have been put in place. And he made fun of mario monti during the interview. Said mario monti has done a great job, every single Economic Indicator is lower. Unemployment is higher, the gdp is lower, et cetera. The only thing that hasnt been dramatically is the spread between the italians and the germans bonds, and he says who cares about that. All right. Happy holidays. Merry christmas. Merry christmas. Wearing green. Coming up you are wearing green. tis the season for lastminute shopping. Procrastinators rushing to the stores. Were going to ring up the retailers, which companies and which stocks have been naughty this year. Which have been nice . Welcome back to squawk box. This morning on this Christmas Eve special do we call it a special edition of squawk box . Its always special. Lets get you to some of the morning headlines. It is a shortened trading day on wall street with stock markets that close at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time ahead of tomorrows christmas holiday. With 4 1 2 trading days left in 2012. The s p 500 now up nearly 14 on track for its best performance in three years. And facebook may have something in common with starbucks. The wrath of the british government. Londons sunday times reporting now that facebook was able to shield 440 Million Pounds from taxes last year through the use of various loopholes. Starbucks had been threatened with a National Boycott for similar moves. Finally, the hobbit was number one at the Movie Box Office for the second straight weekend. You havent seen it yet. Ive got to do that. The Warner Brothers release took in nearly 37 million in north american ticket sales. The new tom cruise movie jack reacher debuted at number two. And have you seen any films . No. Lincoln . Nope. No . Whats on your list . Annie. Annie. For my daughters birthday. Nice. We will definitely see the hobbit. You know, theyre going to make it like the trilogy. The same thing. Lord of the rings. Like the lord of the rings. Well know everything that we want to know about bilbao. We read the hobbit all together. Were reading that. And i think the first one goes to where the eagles transport them away from the wolves. I havent read the hobbit. You havent head the hobbit . You didnt read it in high school . Yeah, i read it in high school. I feed a feelgood movie. El capitan, che guevara. Lets talk shopping. Shoppers hit the stores for the last time before christmas today. Dana telsey is the ceo and chief officer of telsey group. We saw you day after thanksgiving, you said there was going to be sort of a hot that weekend was going to be big, there was going to be a lull, and it was all going to come back. Has it turned out that way for you, dana . I think some of it came back. I dont think all of it came back. I think it was a tougher season than expected. You think you had the long calendar, the hurricane sandy, the track dpi in connecticut, people had a lot on their minds this season. This weekend was a key weekend. I think it helped. I didnt see promotions being extra promotional. But its a push till the end. Okay, so winners and losers . I think some of the winners, i think youre going to see Companies Like tjx, macys. I think American Eagle outfitters, even gap had a very good season, along with michael kors. Losers . I think you had a tough time at jcpenney. I think the traffic was tough there all the time. I think kohls had to be extra promotional in order to be able to drive the sales. And the whole childrens sector was very promotional. From gymboree to childrens place. So, dana, Jason Trennert from strat eegous. How are you doing . Good, how are you, jason . Good. Normally Retail Stocks outperform in january, because i think that phenomenon that andrew was talking about is that theres a general sense that Christmas Gifts canceled at a certain point and then it comes back at the end and then you wind up having a big january and the stocks tend to do very, very well. Would you expect the same type of pattern this year, or maybe im getting a sense maybe you say it might not work out as well this year because the season was a little tougher . I think the season was tougher. I think the inventory levels were thin, i think youre still going to have margin recovery. I think the month of january, i dont see why it would be different this year. I think 2013 game plans need to be addressed and online is what you dont see. You dont see footsteps in the store when youre talking online and thats a higher margin business. When you say Business Plans need to be addressed . Who is going to be changing their plan . And whats the plan going to have to look like . I think some of the plans for 2013, what are we going to see on topline sales . Overall i think you should have a 2013 with samestore sales being up anywhere from 2 to 3 at best. Youre not getting price increases you have to move units. I think margins. I think it will be more of a flat to slightly up year. I think two thud twelve was a better year in margins. You could have more sales growth than margin growth in 2013 with more in the back half. I know we harp on jcp all the time. When you think about that company you think about whats happened during this Holiday Season, does it suggest to you that theyre going to have to change plans any quicker than they would have otherwise . Was this always the plan, which is were not going to have a lot of inventory . Were going to suck it up for the next couple months and hope that things work out later in the year . I think the things for jcpenney that even ron johnson would probably say the plan is a plan but its going to shift depending on what consumer reaction is. And being able to be certainly offer consumers deeper value, whether its 10 off, i think theres more new things that are going to happen that we dont even know about, but price is going to have to be addressed. Dana, obviously we cant avoid talking about the fiscal cliff. Payroll tax cut looks like its going not to be extended. So that would mean that everyone that has a job is going to probably see at least 30 or 40 every paycheck starting in january. Which companies are affected the most by that . Is it the low end . Or is it some place in the middle . Or the high end doesnt matter . What would you say . What advice are you giving . I think the low end to the middle. I think weve already been seeing the beginnings of some of the low end having some pressures that we didnt see earlier in the year. But look what walmart said, their ceo talked about more of their consumers beginning to feel impacts that are being aware of the fiscal cliff. Look at dollar general, where they basically talked about more weekly sales volatility than theyve seen in the past. The gap. You keep saying its doing better. Is this is this a comeback story now . I think it was the comeback story of 2012. I think it has to be the keep on keeping on story of 2013. When you have a stock price gain of in excess of 60 , its a very impressive number for 2012. Okay, dana, were going to leave it there. Last question, is there something, if you wanted to run out and for the procrastinators need to get something, is there a hot item Still Available . I think the hot item go get a michael kors watch. Thats one of the hot items out there. They still have them for sale . Sunglasses are for sale. Some of the coach legacy bags are still out there. And dont forget, you can always buy something at tiffanys. Dana, happy holidays. Happy holidays. Thank you. Thank you. Coming up, fueling the new year, oil prices, natural gas exports, and alternative Energy Sources in 2013. Were going to tell you about whats in the pipeline and how to profit from it. Before we head to break heres a look at futures. As 2012 draws to a close cnbc is giving investors what they need to know to make money in the coming year. Here is Sharon Epperson with a look at the Energy Sector. On the road to north American Energy independence, the next decade is crucial. And in the new year, the dramatic rise in u. S. Oil production will continue its extraordinary climb. At the same time, u. S. Petroleum supplies will have a greater reach. In the First Quarter of 2013, more of the nation will have additional pipeline capacity. Helping to alleviate the abundance of domestic supply. And perhaps mitigate any meaningful price gains. After a year full of fluctuations, by the end of 2013, Oil Prices May not stray far from where they started the year. Its another secret we have a lot of natural gas. Enough to have flooded the market with more supply than the nation could possibly have consumed this year. But those days may be coming to an end. What will we do with all this natural gas . In the new year, the u. S. Will find more ways to utilize or export this cheaper, cleaner fossil fuel, and the increase in demand will set the stage for the continuation of rising prices. Its been a wild ride for oil this year. Oil prices fluctuating because of a lot of stuff in the middle east, also americas growing energy independence. What can we expect from energy in 2013 . Joining us from london is jason from european oil and gas research at mccard securities. Im going to ask you an overall question, jason, and i dont know how you answer this, but, for investors, that are looking at a way to play energy, i mean, is it going to be basically hydro carbon based . Are we back to that where its either natural gas or Oil Exploration or some facet of that . I certainly think so. I think that did were looking for trends in 2013, you know, the potential reemergence of higher Natural Gas Prices could be there. We think its going to take some time for that to happen. I think the trend in 2013 is going to be a continuation of the 2012 trend, a very high refining margins in the midcontinent of the u. S. And thats because of the rising u. S. Crude Oil Production from places like the balkans. We still think that stocks like western refining and holly frontier could still be very Good Investments for 2013. And then those oil produces like Eog Resources would be another place to be putting money. So its not just all we hear about, horizontal fracking, its also, we keep ramping up Oil Production as well in the u. S. . Yeah, thats right. I think that really, you know, the potential emergence of the u. S. As a selfsufficient entity over the next ten years is probably the biggest change that ive seen in the thought process in the 20 years plus ive been in the oil industry. Okay, so you mentioned some people that will benefit from the refining margins, staying strong. Would you say that the even though fracking is what we often hear about, and im sure a lot of people would like to get in on that investment, if the prices recover for natural gas, does that mean that even though its a wellknown story, that some of these stocks are not expensive yet . Yeah, i think especially if you can get a name thats at the low end of the cost curve like a southwestern energy, you could actually get a play on natural Gas Producers over the course of 2013. But we think its going to be a long, slow go for Natural Gas Prices. Theres still an acute oversupply that we think probably will extend through 2013, so id actually be needing a longer investment horizon to be buying Gas Producers here. Its Jason Trennert. I was wondering how, obviously, politics is casting such a long shadow over everything these days. It seems like almost inevitability given the u. S. bountiful natural resources, that it will be a big game changer. How can politics stand in the way, do you think . I mean it seems like its inevitable, but can it be delayed due to politics . I think youre right. But there are a lot of political risks that can come into play with the energy industry. I think the export of lng from the gulf coast is going to be one that will potentially become a Major Political issue in 2013. Weve already see fracking become a local political issue, particularly in places like new york, and then i think the other one that were going to have to face up to within the next couple of years is, will the u. S. Become an exporter of crude oil . And the reason for that is, that the refining system uses different types of crude oil than what we actually produce in the u. S. So it may make sense to consider that type of an export, although i think polite kwli its going to be very difficult to achieve. Well, how could we play the export of either oil or natural gas . Is there do you delve into those types of investments, or youre just purely oil and energy . Well, i think really, natural gas is going to be one that you can get some leverage to. Exporting oil is not necessarily an investable trend in and of itself. Who builds the infrastructure to do that with lng, and what whos involved with that . The infrastructure, air products, first of all, which manufactures the heat exchangers, you have all the engineering and construction firms like kbr, or bechtel, which unfortunately is private, theyre going to be the ones who will gain the Infrastructure Spending benefit from all this. And i think Royal Dutch Shell would be another one to take a look at because they actually have contracts to take lng exports from a facility called freeport which i think may be the next one that is actually approved by the u. S. Government. Yeah, because that thats some multiyear play, i would think. And i mean, i figure we could power the grid with natural gas, and then run so many things off the grid. I just its very exciting. It seems like its a game changer for the u. S. Economy. If we dont mess it up. Yeah, the shell revolution is a game danger, again, if we dont mess it up. It is already making a difference and one other side benefit is that our Carbon Emissions are back down to roughly 1992 levels because of the replacement of coal with natural gas. What about solar, wind, all the alternative stuff . It gets harder and harder to see that being really profitable nearterm, if gas, you know, has a slow move higher, doesnt it . Thats not my area of expertise but if gas is cheap, i really dont know why other than for political reasons youd move forward with that type of investment. Thats why the government does everything for political reasons, though, and thats the favorite thing about blowing so much money try to develop something. Sounds good, right . Good story. Yeah, it sounds good. But if you have cheap natural gas, thats probably going to be your best alternative. I know. Right. Staring you in the face. Anyway, jason, we appreciate your time. You already, you know, youre there i think even in europe, you guys, youre still developing hydro carbons, right . Youre not totally you dont see Wind Turbines everywhere, right . No, theyre still pretty popular over here, though. Probably more so than in the u. S. But north sea is still moving along and shale gas is trying to make a move over here as well but its been pretty slow. We appreciate it. Thanks. Happy holidays, Merry Christmas. Thanks, guys, Merry Christmas. Coming up, dont kick off the short trading day without stocks to watch. Joe has his names that you need to know when we return. Wednesday on squawk box, christmastimes through but members of congress have lots more to do. Rise above party, find cuts for spending and figure out how to keep tax cuts from ending. Our leaders are angry, the speakers perplexed, watch squawk box on wednesday to squawk box on wednesday to find out whats next. I just read whats in front of me. Lets take a look at some stocks to watch this morning. Fortress announcing the retirement of cofounder and principal robert kauffman. You know anything about this, gentlemen . No. In conjunction with his announced retirement fortress is going to redeem or purchase all of its shares which total 51. 3 million classa equivalent shares at 3. 50 a share. Yum brands has received approval from chinese food safety authorities for the level of antibiotics and steroids used in chicken that are served in kfc restaurants in china. Its a huge growth area for kfc. But high levels of a banned antiviral drug in one sample, and there are some that biotechnology related additives are not popular anywhere but here. Right. Huge concern. And maybe thats a good idea because you know, if there ever is a zombie apocalypse, they think it could come from some of virus wouldnt be someone actually dying and coming back. But it could be like in a you saw i am legend, right . I did. Something like that. Remember emma thompson, doctor, instead of curing cancer, she created this hideous there was only one guy left in new york city. Will smith. Like there was only one person at the jets game yesterday. It was you. Right here. Okay. Hold on. Yearend pharmaceuticals, for treating hyper wow. Hypercholesterolemia, a very rare but life threatening form of extremely elevated cholesterol levels and its approved a drug for that. Jcpenney, oppenheimer said its visited stores in new york and new jersey and indicate that the retailers aggressive promotions are helping Holiday Season sales. And will aid its turnaround strategy, along with you know what else they cited . The button. Remember those little buttons . I do. I do. And then finally, best buy mentioned positively, the new richfield remodel that thinks the new format is an upgrade apparently. Shall we get some additional thoughts from Jason Trennert . Youre not leaving us . No, i dont think so. Ive got presents for you guys, too. You want to do them now . You want to do them now . Sure. No, they want to wait. Wait. I want to go to a different issue which is talking about the fiscal cliff all whole program. Right. I want to go to your nifty fifty. Right. Give me your nifty five. Nifty fifty didnt work out that well last time. This is a different kind of nifty fifty, though, i would say. Always is. The difference this time is those are one decision Growth Stocks in the 70s that were trading at 60, 70 times earnings. These are nifty fifty stocks, so it would be a merck, it would be a google. It would be microsoft. It would be mckesson. Go on down the list. You just told me the whole market is overvalued. No, no, no, but these stocks, a lot of them are trading i dont think the whole market is overvalued. You have a situation now where youre going to have financial oppression, the dominant theme over the next five to ten years. Youre going to get negative real returns from bonds, i think, ad infinitum, mainly because our problems are too large to deal with in any other way. The only place to go, i think, for most investors, especially that need the income, is going to be stocks that provide you what the fed is taking away through financial oppression. Last year the fed bought 75 of the net new issuance of the treasuries. Right. Theyre keeping youre getting 150 from a tenyear piece of paper, inflation is two. And the plan is to keep it at 150, and get inflation to two, three, four. Equities are going to wind up being your only shot. And so, in my view, youre going to wind up having companies right now, andrew, there are 25 companies that have credit fall swaps that are lower than uncle sams. 25 companies where the market is saying, these are better credits. Right. Than the u. S. Treasury. In my view thats going to be the basis for your new nifty fifty. Especially as the debt gets downgraded. Were going to have to give you we may have to publish or put out the list. Ill be happy. Okay, jason, stay where you are. More from jason to come. In the meantime, when the ball drops on new years eve, were going to be counting down the fiscal cliff disaster still . Well ask ben white if politicians can work out a compromise by the end of the year. We only got a couple days to go. Plus how to position your portfolio to make money in 2013. Squawk is back with a very big hour after this. [ male announcer ] this december, remember what starts with adding a friend. Could end with adding a close friend. The lexus december to remember sales event is on. This is the pursuit of perfection. The lexus december to remember sales event is on. To the best vacation sp all the gulf it doesnt matter which of our great states folks visit. Mississippi, alabama, louisiana or florida, theyre gonna love it. Shaul, your alabama hospitality is incredible. Thanks, karen. Love your mississippi outdoors. I vote for your florida beaches, dawn. Bill, this louisiana seafood is delicious. Were having such a great year on the gulf, weve decided to put aside our rivalry. Now is the perfect time to visit anyone of our states. The beaches and waters couldnt be more beautiful. Take a boat ride, go fishing or just lay in the sun. Weve got coastline to explore and wildlife to photograph. And theres world class dining with our world famous seafood. So for a great vacation this year, come to the gulf. Its all fabulous but i give florida the edge. Right after mississippi. You mean alabama. Say louisiana or theres no dessert. This invitation is brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. Boproductivity up, costs down, thtime to market reduced. Those are good things. Upstairs, they will see fantasy. Not fantasy. Logistics. Ups came in, analyzed our supply chain, inventory systems. Ups . Ups. Not fantasy . Who would have thought . I did. We did, bob. We did. Got it. Time for citi price rewind. Because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. And you really dont want to pay more than you have to. Only citi price rewind automatically searches for the lowest price. And if it finds one, you get refunded the difference. Just use your citi card and register your purchase online. Have a super sparkly day ok. [ male announcer ] now all you need is a magic carriage. Citi price rewind. Start saving at citi. Com pricerewind. twas the night before christmas, and in congress chambers, still no deal to avoid the fiscal dangers. No rising above, only sinking below. The mod in the capitols colder than snow. Will drastic cuts happen . Will tax cuts expire . The stakes for our future never been higher. President obama, the house, and the senate, well hold them accountable minute by minute. Joe and andrew are spreading the holiday cheer. The third hour of squawk box is finally here. Were doing a lot of health stuff. We should run that more. You know what its kind of like . Kind of like the guys chanting oneal or whatever his name is. Tatum oneal. That made him the sexiest man in because of magic mike, the chippendales thing. We can be chippendales. Lets do it. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc. First in business worldwide. Im joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin, and they were talking about you dont want to be an elf. You said. Thats like tony fratto wrote in thats like the elf in rudolph. His mother wanted him to be a dentist and instead he was an elf, and he did not want to be what was his name . I havent seen it. Herby. Herby wanted to be a dentist. Becky quick is off today and someone said its like a meatless. Were like a couple of tasteless pieces of bread without anything oh, yeah. Chopped liver. Our guest host this morning, Jason Trennert. Chief investment strategist, i say strat eegous, because its strategy. Strategas, that was your firm, you used to be for years at ifi. Thats right. 15 years. So you had trennert, which was a palindrome. Isi. And now strategas. A man, a plan. First andrew has the morning headlines. Its a shortened trading session for Christmas Eve. U. S. Equity markets will be closed at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time. Bond, currency and commodity training also will end early. In asia, japan, and the philippines were closed. In europe only the uk, french, dutch and spanish stock markets are open. Theyre also going to be closing early. U. S. Equity futures, see how the market is setting up for the day. Dow off by 20 points. Nasdaq off by 8 points s p 500 off as well. Lets get some of the headlines. Regulators are reportedly looking into whether financially classified bad loans, the wall street journal citing depositions that were unsealed this morning. The s. E. C. , fed, fbi Alabama Banking Commission sig t. A. R. P. And the Justice Department has been questioning bank executives. Regulators have warned 350 medical practices that they may have purchased potentially counterfeit botox from a network of wholesalers controlled by canada drugs. Thats the problem. Its counterfeit. Its not working. Is it no good . Is it not botox . Im asking a question. Why its not working. Oh, oh, yeah. You are known for that razor sharp yeah. Youre a print guy. Take your time with these things. How long does it take to write a column . Takes like five hours, right . Yeah. A lot of time. Im afraid of needles. Im with you on that. But, ive thought about, have you ever had botox . No what do you mean . I see it in irforehead. You have not with that expression. Are you kidding . But my question, honestly, in a business sense, is the counterfeit botox does not work . It probably isnt real botox, then. And you would like to get real botox, because it can be botulism let me ask you a question, though. Are generics i always thought generics, and the name brand, were the same. And now, are they the same . Or are they not the same . They dont have to be i thought they were equal. They have to be equal but not i think theres more things coming out now that are saying generics are inferior to the name brand. A lot of drugs, first im ive heard that. Not molecule for molecule. Should be awfully close. Anyway, you got more. Maybe the viewers are laughing at home. I dont know. Theyre laughing. They are. The International Supplier was linked earlier this year with fake cancer medicine. Thats something you definitively dont want to take. Yeah, that was a couple of years ago. Tamoxifen or Something Like that. Anyway, investors bracing themselves for a cliff this year. After three days of triple digit gains for the dow last week, stocks up nearly 1 on friday. On the markets, pricing in a deal on the fiscal cliff. We will ask Chris Sheldon chief Investment Officer at dreyfuss corporation who joins us from boston. Dont know if youve been watching, chris, jason, i think thinks that overall the markets a little ahead of itself but there are still pockets of value. How do you view the overall markets this morning . Not radically different. Good morning, gentlemen. Hello, jason, how are you . How you doing, chris . Good. Good to see you. I think jasons right in the sense that when we have management teams all over the world, literally, and almost every one of these teams assumes that the fiscal cliff will be fixed, the market has rallied in anticipation of that. Here we are, once again at the 11th hour, and so in that sense, if we dont get some type of a deal here in the next few days, which the clock is ticking, i think in that regard, the market may be a little bit ahead of itself. Overall, though, the i guess you have to say that the pricetoearnings multiple is pretty low and reasonable, given where longterm treasuries are. But then again, that this is probably take nothing account, maybe a slowdown next year if the fiscal cliff isnt resolved. Or a lot of the concerns that we have about europe or whatever. Is that fair . I think thats fair. I think the slowdown is baked in the cake. Weve already seen deceleration from the third quarter, which 3 is a distant memory for gdp growth, as we look at the Fourth Quarter and First Quarter. So i think were dealing with a slowdown, even if they have some resolution to the fiscal cliff. I think the difference between next year, 2013, and this year, is if you think about what we were dealing with coming into the year in the beginning of 2012, people are concerned about the breakup of the euro, imminent u. S. Recession, they were saying, china hard landing. So when some of these things didnt happen, all we needed last year, this year, was less bad in the market. I think in 2013, were going to need to see better Economic Growth as the year moves forward. Because, as you say, the market is reasonably valued. But its not cheap. And i think to jasons earlier point, there are some stocks out there that are very, very attractive. But there are some stocks that look fairly expensive, and those are the ones that are the defensive, and highincome plays today. Chris, everyones waiting for this Asset Allocation shift away from fixed income, towards equities. The retail investor, for whatever reason, for a variety of reasons that we can all list, i guess, has just been very hesitant to do that. When does that happen . And does that happen in 2013 . Well, you would think it should, given where we have a start in yields, especially on treasuries. But almost across the board in fixed income the starting yields are very unattractive depending on what youre looking at. Yet all this year, almost every week, theres outflows from equities, inflows into bonds. I literally just saw the data for last week, and it was the first time that we saw even a little bit of outflows from bonds. So, but i think when we would begin to see the shift probably is not until people start to actually see themselves losing money on their bond prices. That may not be happening in the beginning of the year. So, i think the reality is youre going to need to see better growth. Youre going to need to see better clarity on earnings. And only then, i think youre talking at least halfway into the year, if not beyond that. When you 24i about any of this, it doesnt make you feel good that 85 billion is being supplied every month by ben bernanke . Well, certainly the underpinnings of liquidity are important. If it was only the u. S. Central bank you might say, gee, is that snuff . Now theyve come all in with guns blazing, maybe by itself it would be enough. On top of that theyre literally in the last 12 months there have been 300 actions by Central Banks. Most recently weve seen japan reengage. I think thats a pretty important factor. Its not just our fed. Its global liquidity that i do think has made a difference to equity prices, whether thats anticipation or whether thats real impact on the economy, different question. But yeah, i think it is helpful. And i think that its one factor that, if we can get some of these issues like the fiscal cliff, even modestly improved, i think thats when you see an outlook for equities next year that still could be fairly constructive. Hmm. Okay, chris. We appreciate your time today. Enthusiast very much. Andrew, i think one of the big headlines today was the bimbo hostess, the twinkie thing, and now were not reporting it anymore, because of you dont like saying bimbo. You had trouble but i just want to give you some history of the word. It apparently is an italian word for a little male baby. A little male baby, and all the way through up until the early 20th century, it was used, it didnt mean anything. And, in fact, in 1919 it was used to describe a masculine baby, a little baby, very young male child. And it wasnt until the late 20s that it became to be associated with females. And now it is almost only used in a derogatory term. So you are correct in that sense. But a lot of people writing in saying, its used in mexico as not a bimbo. As not. Like little male babies are its almost like bambino. Bambino. Its like a bambino. So you can return to that story without feeling that youre well do because of the bimbo. The hostess story is an important story. The bimbo twinkie story after the break. I should also note there was a fire, a viewer just want you to know you guys are going for andrew in hell. Youre pulling it off big time. So, aaron Merry Christmas to you. Coming up, the latest on the fiscal cliff negotiations, will politicians rise above to get a deal . Were going to ask that question of politicos ben white. What it all will take for both sides to get together and avoid a debt disaster. Plus how to position the portfolio before the clock runs out. A look at the sectors to watch in 2013, as becky, joe, and you saw becky . I saw a little shot. Okay, theres you. Good. Lets get to commercial quickly. [ male announcer ] this is joe woods first day of work. And his new boss told him two things cook what you love, and save your money. Joe doesnt know it yet, but hell work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. Hell start investing early, hell find some good people to help guide him, and hell set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isnt rocket science. Its just common sense. From td ameritrade. Welcome back. Shoppers hitting the malls for lastminute gifts, while not yet. Its a bit early in california. Cnbcs jane wells joins us now with more. Just one time of the year, jane, where even back here in the jersey suburbs thats like l. A. In terms of traffic. Everybody is out. I mean, just huge jams, trying to get to the malls. Its hideous. Yeah, look at you. Well, right now the only other person with me at the galleria is another reporter from the local nbc station. Actually macys here at the galleria is open. It has been open around the clock. But, im looking. I see two employees, no shoppers. And the verdict really is still out on this Holiday Shopping season. The lull between black friday and today keeps getting longer. And, in fact, shopper track has now lowered its holiday Sales Forecast from 3. 3 growth to only 2. 5 . But Consumer Reports predicts nearly one in ten of us will still be shopping today. Shoppers have learned to wait, because theyre rewarded with lastminute price slashing. Retailers hope consumers are just procrastinating, and not, heaven forbid, stopping their shopping. Weve seen this trend for the last 20 years that the consumer procrastinates, waits for better pricing, and then is rewarded for waiting, finds greater discounts that last ten days or two weeks, and shops with a real fever. Now, jaffe says names with momentum are gap. Can you believe it, gap . Proof that you should never give up. And urban outfitters. He remains bullish on American Eagle fouth outfitters but is concerned about air postal and abercrombie. Target prices have not kept pace with amazon and walmart and pricing is more important than merchandise this year, say some analysts. One in three americans have cut personal spending over fiscal cliff worries about the economy. Im definitely shopping on a budget because i just wrote a book, and i had to spend a lot of money to get the book printed. So i have to be very careful. I guess were always on a budget but we always exceed the budget. My budget is lower than last year. But its going okay. Im still able to get people little gifts here and there. Were spending a lot of money this year. Were buying everybody gifts this year. Just because i guess its almost random. Notice the only one blowing the budget is the woman. Notice most of those people we interviewed are guys, because who else waits to the last minute . Back to you, joe. Youre right. Although i was a little early this year. But i did it the right way this year, jane, i took her with me. Because the humiliation of returning something, you know, four times a year, anniversary, birthday, christmas would you call my husband and tell him that . He should take you, right . It wasnt easy. Physically i could carry her. Any time he gets me pajamas and a robe and thats so nice, but its never the right one. Wow. And how many times has that happened . Because its humiliating to once again be told that i dont want this, and you have no idea what to get me. And finally, i mean, he should learn. You know, what are you going to do . What are you going to do . Do you appreciate the thought . Do you appreciate the thought . I appreciate the fact that he will go out at 2 00 p. M. This afternoon and buy me another pair of pajamas that i wont like that. You wont want. Jane, im going to talk to him. Ill try and get it in. Thank you. Thank you. Does she ever go with you . She peeks, and im yeah, im you dont like what she im losing so many points. You are. Are you the husband or the wife . You want to be the husband or the wife . Thats an old joke. You know that joke . Yes. The prisoner well congress this is a long well congress there you go. The clock continues to tick down towards the fiscal cliff. Ben white chief economic correspondent at politico is here with the latest on this negotiation impasse, and of course, ben white, morning money. You can definitely talk about morning money. Whats it called . Morning money. Say it again. Morning money. Morning money. Sign it for it at politico. Com. Politico . Youve heard of that. But its on morning money. What do you think the chances are . Five days, four days . Yeah, i mean, lets say, until new years about five. I give it like a 70 chance we go over, 30 chance we dont. I think a lot of it depends on mitch mcconnell, the Senate Minority leader, if he decides to allow a bill to move forward on the floor. Is there anything going on behind the scenes that we dont know about . There is. The president s playing golf in hawaii. Theres nothing going on behind the scenes. Theres not some meetings going on in the white house, theres not staff lining up a putt . No, which is difficult, because theres lots of other stuff that has to go into what the president talks about before he left on friday, which is the tax rates. He didnt talk about payroll tax cut, amt, a number of things. Theres a lot that has to go into a final deal and how they get that done. My worry is were not talking about early january, were talking about late january. I think its probably more mid january if we go over. Because i think youll see market reaction, and youll see a lot of people freak out, and its a problem. Market reaction, would you think people still think its, you know, we get a deal. Lastminute deal. I tend to be an optimist. Ive been a cliff diver for the start. The alternative to allowing it to happen is so crazy and so insane and so stupid. Heres what im not advising the president. We do want to rise above here. We try and do that. But if i were the president , and knowing the way politics is played, the Chris Matthews show called hardball and it really is, its hardball, and if i were the president and knew that i could get back to 39. 6 on not 400, not a million, but on 250, by just waiting for the calendar to happen, and then his side introduces a tax cut bill why wasnt it always been that that was inevitable because its such a good way . Partly because the republicans actually want to get tagged with allowing the largest tax increase in history. They will get tagged with if this happens and then theyre negotiating a position where all the tax rates have gone up. I thought the republicans wouldnt want that to happen. Republicans cant stop it from happening. It happens with the calendar. So its not their fault. Im surprised that republicans would allow it to happen, give obama the ability he could veto something. But hes not going to be in a position to do that. Hes not going to stop a cliff deal if he gets it and hes going to sign off on it. Youre assuming that boehner or someone will do a bipartisan deal because they wont get, we know that they wont get those democrats and republicans. Exactly. It will have to come out of the senate and have enough republicans in the house to get half of the caucus in the house. They dont need all of the caucus. By going over the clifr, do you mean that theres no deal on amt. Theres no dealish we either go over entirely or we dont go over at all. And we get a baby deal. We get a baby deal. I think we get a baby deal thats tax rates, amt. Do you get a big deal if we do go over, though . No, probably not. The president s not going to be in the position of wanting to give up anything at that point. Hes not going to want to give up entitlement cuts or Social Security reform. Skept for the debt ceiling. Except for the debt ceiling. Well just do this all again and the president said were not going to negotiate over entitlement programs. Im not going to do hostage taking on the debt ceiling but what chase does he have . He doesnt have a choice. Hes going to have to give up some stuff to get it. How politically damaged is boehner by plan b failure . Hes definitely damaged. Theres no question about it. He made a big play, left negotiation with the president to take this plan b approach, assuming he could get his caucus on board. He failed to do that. Hes almost like a hes got an impossible job. You dont remember anywhere else, might remember othello or hamlet, theyre the people you remember, theyre tragic, they all have fatal flaws but theyre the heroes, theyre the protagonists of the work. Theres fatal flaws. The caucuses, the Tea Party Republicans who will not do anything. They will. Ever. But hes not going to lose the speakership i dont think over this. Theres enough support for him. He is lear, a man more sinned against than sinning. Did you read what did you make of the way the president approached it . Some of the sort of a nasty tough line. I was surprised, actually. There was some debate over that instance where he said i get this amount of increased tax revenue for free. Boehner says im getting to 800. He says nothing. Surprised to see such a partisan the white house were you, really . To president obama. I thought he was just the way he was appreciating it, that was what it was. Theres been how is it thats not the quote . That is the quote but the context of it might have been somewhat different than was portrayed. But you dont know that. Whatever the case, i mean the guy won reelection. He won and he won the first time. Elections have consequences. Exactly. So why would he take the same tack that he took in the summer of 2011 maybe because we might have gotten a deal . We might have gotten a deal. But he was moving towards a deal and then boehner pulled out. Why did boehner pull out . Whats the other side the other side said that he which side not last i dont want to relitigate that but for whatever reason boehner pulled to plan b, thought he could get it passed, didnt deliver on it. What do you think happened there . With the Republican Caucus . There was a postmortem in the journal, right . The tea party clubs said, they would not support any tax increase, not a million, not over a million and we dont have enough spending cuts. Why did he pull out . What was the most mortem on pulling out . I think he thought obama wasnt close enough. Its a couple hundred billion in revenues i mean in spending cuts that the president wanted and boehner said i cant believe that. Neighbor he couldnt have pulled out because of the same guys that killed plan b. Shorterterm it looks like the republicans would feel that brunt politically of us going over the cliff. Longerterm if you get into next year and you still have troubles and the economy is still weak, isnt the president taking a big chance here . I mean, do you get any sense that theyre overplaying their hand because they won reelection . I agree with that. I think they are overplaying their hand a little bit. I think that the president doesnt want to have a second term overshadowed by a recession. Which is actually an opportunity to get a few things done, completely over taken by this cliff. He does actually want a deal. Im not sure he wants to go its hard to be mad hopefully is, hard to be mad at 60 individual republicans and say i dont like this guy, this guy, this guy and you only got one guy. It will hurt republicans in the midterms if we go over the cliff. Significantly. I guess will not hurt democrats at all . I think the polls are clear that in the current negotiations over the fiscal cliff if we go over, republicans will be overwhelming share of the blame for it. Republican doesnt mind tax increases and the republican position although theres still far a lot of the public that probably doesnt want their entitlements cut but they do express that they want washington to live within its means. They do express that theyre not a huge fan of Big Government although they do like do like Social Security. How many of the races in november, congressional races are actually close . Not that many. I mean this was an interesting dynamic. Because theres really, i mean, you do have a very stark choice between in a lot of these districts. So, the conventional wisdom is a lot of republicans, a lot of Tea Party Republicans are more worried about a primary slide than they are running against the democrats. Absolutely. Is that true . Thats a problem that you have a House Majority that believes and has as much of a mandate as the president. A lot of these guys won with a large share of the vote. Some are in gerrymander districts, some of them arent. They won on a hard line of not raising taxes. Tony fratto was on earlier. I looked at something he wrote last week when we said the republicans are the president wants to try to take back the house next midterm and he points out and i looked back to find that in the 90s republicans had two government shutdowns and newt gingrich, they still didnt lose control of congress, in fact they picked up houses and kept it for the next decade. So not a slam dunk. Not a slam dunk. People do like divided government, too. Unfortunately gets nothing done, as weve seen. Thats a fair point. Its not a slam dunk, that republicans lose the house. All right. Ben while, Merry Christmas. Happy holidays. Same to you, guys. Keep going for morning money. We love it. Politico. Sectors to watch in the year 2013, were going to bring you the names that will make you some money hopefully in 2013. Coming up right after the break. You wont take our future. Aids affects us all. Even babies. Chevron is working to stop mothertochild transmission. Our employees and their families are part of the fight. And were winning. At chevron nigeria, we havent had a reported case in 12 years. Aids is strong. Aids is strong. But we are stronger. And aids. Aids is going to lose. Aids is going to lose. Omnipotent of opportunity. You know how to mix business. With business. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above. And still pay the midsize price. I could get used to this. [ male announcer ] yes, you could business pro. Yes, you could. Go national. Go like a pro. You wont just find us online, youll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. So when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. Because personal Service Starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. Our support teams are nearby, ready to help. Its no wonder so many investors are saying. [ all ] im with scottrade. Lets get a quick check on the short day. Equity trading markets are going to close at 1 00 p. M. From the cme in chicago, Rick Santelli and cio of nations shares and an options action contributor. 1 00, and this whole week, anything notable, really, do you think, scott, typically, and christmas week . What are the things to watch for . In all of these holiday shortened weeks, the market tends to have a little bit of an upward bias. I think thats just a function of the population of traders that are paying attention to weeks like this. This week we could really use an upward bayous because if the s p gets to that 1422. 70 level that was the low on friday below there i think the markets going to get really mushy, i dont think were going to get much news on monday and on wednesday as far as the fiscal cliff is concerned. So people will be left to their own devices below that 1422 level which is probably not a really good thing for the market in general. And, my man rick. When was that, i probably shouldnt even bring it up, i loved it so much, corker, you had him, and rick you were making such great points. He tried to like maintain, i dont know, i guess hes still trying to rise above or something, but he had fear in his eyes when you were talking on friday. That was a great rant you went on. Well, ill tell you what, i have Great Respect for senator corker. And the more i get to know him, and talk to him, and he tries to paint me some pictures of whats going on in the senate, what may happen, my one issue continues to be that we want to rise above, joe, but, once again, how do you rise above an 8 nonsolution . But, this is Christmas Eve. We should look at the bright side. I know. I tried to get you going. That was friday. You were on a roll on friday. You hear from anyone on that, rick . Oh, yeah. No, very positive feedback, and i think in the end, trying to handicap so many moving parts, as to whats going on in the house, whats going on in the senate, whats going on on a golf course somewhere in hawaii, its hard to wrap around a strategy that is going to be difficult to get to. You know, part of me says, you know, you need to compromise. And i think some of these conservatives have compromised. The other part of me thinks, you know, thank god we didnt make the ultimate compromise with the british, or wed have a different flag hanging over our house on the fourth of july. Theres a lot of people that say what we need to do, we can run a 2 deficit. We need to get back to x amount of revenue, and y amount of government spending. And most people say somewhere between like 18 revenue, 20 spending, maybe 19 revenue, 21 pending. Given what the democrats and the white house are offering on the spending cuts, do you feel that maybe theyre thinking they want to keep it at 23, 22, 24 . Were not seeing anything that gets us anywhere near 20 or 21 in terms of the offers were seeing from them. Are we . No. No. I mean, this would be like, you know, in 1969, we landed the first man on the moon. But it would have never happened if the only thing they worried about was exactly how the, you know, the lunar module was going to land, but not how they were going to leave the atmosphere of the earth. You cant worry about the Little Details on these tax issues. As much as the winners of the election want to punish the rich, because i cant think of any other reason that we dwell so much on that side of it, the rest of it, what did i read . Senator corker was telling me before we went on air, and i wish it would have came up, and maybe the numbers arent exact but youll get the point. That the average person, basically, pays in 100,000, to 150,000, and they pull out about 280,000 to 300,000 on medicaid. These things cant continue. They just cant. And, to think that, you know, hey, where do we want to put the flag once we land on the moon . If thats all that they did with nasa research, and never worried about anything else, obviously it wouldnt have turned out the same. This is a similar issue. Theres something to be said for we won the election, were going to keep government, you know, were at 25 right now. Lets say we get a better growth but were okay with 22 or 23 and we want to collect 21. And its our prerogative because we won. Is that okay, scott . That seems to be what were hearing. Well, i want to go no. We obviously have to cut the size of the government. But rick said the conservatives have compromised. And that may be true. But the most conservative conservatives have not compromised. All that they did, all that they gave mr. Boehner was essentially a cigarette and a blindfold, and i think that we have to realize that, i understand what theyre trying to do. Its not that they dont want to raise taxes, its they refuse to be seen raising taxes. And theres a difference there. Theyre already running again in 2014 and were still in 2012 and they dont want to be blasted thats right. I think they have just i think theyre probably going to lose their seats because i dont think theyre going to regain their seats because of the stance theyre taking. Theyre going to be blamed for everything. What do you think, rick . I think that they didnt give mr. Boehner a cigarette and a blindfold. Mr. Boehner basically have given them lip service. And i like mr. Boehner. But in the end, i dont think anybody so this day takes those fiscal conservatives as seriously as they better take them. In todays oped by mr. Reynolds of putnam, was also disappointing. I mean i just dont think you can sequate the idea that peopl have certain beliefs. And just because you send a representative there that doesnt agree with others beliefs, this isnt the electorate as being mean. They just want what they want. Rick santelli, scott nation, thank you. Merry christmas, joe. Merry christmas. Thanks a lot. Merry Christmas Andrew ross. Happy holidays, guys. You, too. And coming up, andrew . Coming up, italian Prime Minister mario monti stepping down to set up the february elections. Could he win another term . Could Silvio Berlusconi mount a serious challenge . Thats the story. And share som. Or you can get out there and actually share something. The lexus december to remember sales event is on. This is the pursuit offection. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. In the headlines a judge has given approval to a settlement stemming from the 2010 gulf oil spill. Bp is going to be paying 7. Billion to more than 100,000 individuals and businesses. The judge has yet to rule, however, on a medical settlement for cleanup workers. And foot traffic at shopping malls this past weekend appeared to be in line with last year but shoppers are spending less. Npd says a variety of issues, including the fiscal cliff and possible higher taxes are dampening holiday spirits. And as we mentioned before, italys mario monti tendered his resignation as italys Prime Minister in a move that sets up a parliamentary election in february, but monti said he would consider seeking a second term if approached by allies committed to his version of austerity reforms. The former economics professor has the backing of italys business community, as well as International Support from german chancellor merkel. Recent polls show voters are far less enamored of montis tax increases, spending cuts and reforms to entitlement programs. And the race will be complicated by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi who stepped down in november two thud eleven amid sex scandals and a crumbling economy. He told cnbc italy that he doesnt want to run for Prime Minister but he feels obligated to do so. Coming up, what do you need to know about the economy and the markets in the new year . The Asset Classes and sectors that will hopefully make you some money next year, right after the break. Wednesday on squawk box, christmastimes through, but members of congress have lots more to do. Rise above party, find cuts for spending, and figure out how to keep tax cuts from ending. Our leaders are angry, the speakers perplexed, watch squawk box on wednesday to find out whats next. [ male announcer ] everyone deserves the gift of all day pain relief. This season, discover aleve. All day pain relief with just two pills. This season, discover aleve. Excuse me, sir im gonna have to ask you to power down your little word game. I think your friends will understand. Oh no, its actually my geico app. See . I just uh paid my bill. Did you really . From the plane . Yeah, i can manage my policy, get roadside assistance, pretty much access geico 24 7. Sounds a little too good to be true sir. Ill believe that when pigs fly. Ok, did she seriously just say that . Geico. Just click away with our free mobile app. Welcome back to squawk box. The looming fiscal cliff means uncertainty for the economy in the new year. Here is Steve Liesman with a preview of what he expects in 2013. Trying to figure out whats going to happen in 2013 depends on one very important development. Whether the u. S. Goes over the fiscal cliff in a few days time. And, for how long. If its avoided, theres considerable upside for the economy. We could see at least one, and maybe two quarters of growth above 3 . The kind of growth that would put people back to work and lower the unemployment rate. Why . Because business has been Holding Back Investment under the uncertainty, unleashing business spending would add to the growth from the rebound in housing and from the consumer who has hung in there despite tough times. In fact, we could see unemployment drop below 7 . Although it might first rise, and people come into the workforce will be discouraged but then it could start to fall. As for the fed i think the market may be overstating its expectation for asset purchases from the central bank in 2013. At the current pace the new round of quantitative easing will add 1 trillion to the balance sheet. I think its likely to come in less, maybe in the 750 billion range. A lot, just not as much as markets think. So if we get the growth and the lower unemployment, that would likely mean what higher interest rates. Attention will be fed asset meant to keep down longterm rates and better growth, which will push them higher. Im predicting we end with a 2 to 2. 25 tenyear treasury so Mortgage Rates may already be as low as they will get. Those are my predictions for 2013. Those were steves predictions. Now lets get some more market predictions from our 2013 next guest, joining us now larry mcdonald, new edge Senior Vice President , and a guy who saw the bubble coming. Loved your book. You know that. Good to see you, larry. How are you . Hey, andrew. Thanks very much. So what do you think . Give it to us straight here. Well, i think joes had it right for most of the last week. This debt ceiling issue is literally like an optionality impact on the market. So in other words, the president had a chance, the speaker offered the president a oneyear extension on the debt ceiling, as well as tax increases above 500,000. Those are two colossal gives. In return, the bottom, bottom line is, you cant talk about ten years. The president did not offer any meaningful cuts in medicare in 2013, in 2014, so you have all of these newly elected 2010 house of representatives, the gop took 61 seats, the most since 1938. So you have all these new, newly elected representatives, that really boehner hasnt given them anything. So bottom line, shortterm, the market upside, the next 30 days, is going to depend on what the president gives on that debt ceiling. One of the things we keep hearing around this table, and jason can speak to this, is this sense that no matter what happens, that the first half of the year is going to be tough. Well, i think if you got a oneyear extension on the debt ceiling, and you like you think about the grand bargain, were not going to get a grand bargain, but if you accomplish 40, 50, 60 of a grand bargain in a deal, then we have meaningful upside. But i think im looking overseas at secular well im looking in the u. S. At secular moves, and overseas. In the u. S. You have a secular change in natural gas. The infrastructure of the natural gas ecosystem has to be built out. Thats a place to look. And i think over in asia not overpriced already . Well, the infrastructure, in other words the companies that actually build it out, i mean, were talking about a big secular move there, and i think if you buy the dips in that sector thats a good idea. Also in asia, youre seeing a little bit of what we saw in 2003 and 04 in asia now. Theres massive credit expansion. If you look at credit as percentage of gdp in asia, its gone from 80 in 2007 to about 100 . So in asia, in japan, all these asian economies, theres much more credit in the consumers hands than has existed in the last five years. So thats a big plus for 2013. Larry, its Jason Trennert from strategas. Can you get multiple expansions without a big deal . You either go off the cliff or get a small deal, doesnt that just kind of keep everything in abeyance, capital spending, Consumer Confidence, all the rest of it . Yeah. I mean, i think david tepper, i think one of the best interviews andrew and joe did with david tepper, i agree with david tepper in the sense that stocks are cheap. But people have nowhere to go. So, the fed, and the Central Banks around the world have forced people to take more risk, and the money has to go somewhere. So, in 2013, you could see stocks just go up 10 by default, because there really isnt anywhere to go with the capital. Hmm. Larry were going to thank you for that. Wish you Merry Christmas and happy holidays. Larry, i appreciate it. And, joe was right, he was very happy. No, im just wondering, larry, it just seems to, like if you go over you get 250 at 39. 6 and thats just too tempting, i think, for the president , dont you . I would do it. I mean, thats isnt that sort of whats happening here . He gets everything he wants. He cant do everything. Thats the big worry. My website, i just put up a piece, and if we go over the one thing you have to look at, joe, is you get the even with the small deal, like a half go over, you get 110 billion on the payroll tax cut elimination, and then you get a 60 billion tax increase probably best case. So thats 160 billion. So the targets going to have to digest that over the next couple of months. You know, they call it austerity over in europe and we expect anyone to just fall into line with it. But over here, were beyond that now. We just we want what we want, and i dont know, we eventually got eventually got to we cant keep doing this at 25 of gdp. Larry, thanks, appreciate it. Thanks, guys. The bubble, right . He knew. You were bummed that you said that, that he was really smart when he said i had been right. Why did i say that . I love the book. First thing out of his mouth was i was right. You did a great homer. Anyway, coming up, why the price you pay for an item online may depend on your location. I understand this, though. I dont you know, market prices. This is market prices. This is what youve got to do. Why buying your plane tickets on a computer may cost you money, and a lot more when squawk box returns. The amount of money you pay for an item online could depend on your location. A wall street journal investigation found the staples website displayed different prices to people after estimating their locations, among other things the Office Supply retailer appeared to consider the persons distance from arrival brick and mortar stores. Theyll make you pay if you realize you dont want to pay 30 miles to a brick and mortar. Im sure theyre gouging all the rich people on the coast. And offering different prices to different people is legal, with a few exceptions, of course, for racebased discrimination and other sensitive situations. The journal also looked at other retailers, some sites give discounts based on whether or not a person was using a mobile device, for example. Orbitz said people searching for flights online would see discounts as much as 50 off of other prices. You know how to do that on a mobile phone. I do. You do, too. I do not. We need to work on that. I dont have apps. Theres no apps on a blackberry. Well get you a new blackberry because they do have apps. Im going to an iphone now. Because the crackberry people are rude and nasty on twitter. Youll get the iphone 5. What do you have . I still use a blackberry. So do i. I might get a blackberry 10. But thats not enough for these people. I like the keyboard. For business i dont use it for anything but email. We got my wife an iphone this weekend. Shes been a blackberry person. You can do the apps for her. You can show her. Doing a little instruction. Anyway, coming up, our guest host this morning has been david trener. Well give him the last word. Christmas shines through, but members of congress have lots more to do. Rise above, party, find cuts for spending and find out how to keep tax cuts from ending. Our leaders are angry, the speakers perplexed, watch squawk box on wednesday to find out whats next. Welcome back. Lets get back to our guest hoe host, jason trener. I have gifts. I didnt have a lot of time. I went to cvs last night. I was in the spirit of goodwill toward men
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.