Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20160926

John ford and myself, kayla has the morning off. We are less than ten hours away from the first president ial debate between Hillary Clinton and donald trump. The candidates facing off at Hofstra University 9 00 tonight. In what is expected to be the most watched president ial debate in history. Lets bring in head of Public Policy and chief political strategist and wormer george w. Bush senior aide. Good to see you both. Good morning. Good morning, thank you. I know you did work on this what each candidate needs to do, walk us through some of that and characterize the degree to which the market is now invested in all things political. Well, certainly if you look at both candidates, they have very specific tasks tonight. Hillary clinton has to raise her game in terms of having people have more confidence in her ability to lead and to be the safe pick, and donald trump has to be more president ial, and i think those are the two primary tasks before both candidates. The markets are going to watch this debate closely. You could see some movement in the markets tomorrow if theres a big flip, if theres a big clear winner, especially if its trump. We could see the markets move. I think the markets still favor clinton at this point, but they know its going to be a very, very close race. Sir, in terms of specifics, what are you going to be looking for, listening for, economic policiwise . The big moments in these debates dont tend to be that substantial. They can often be style based, but are there specific things that youre listening for . Well, i think for donald trump its a real opportunity to put some specificity around his plans, and the one area of differentiation between these candidates, theres many, but the one area where the two candidates have competing plans are on taxes and the economy, and so this is a Good Opportunity for him to really drill down on his Corporate Tax relief plan, his individual tax relief plan, and talk about how he will get the economy moving. Our own larry kudlow points to a potential 5 growth with this kind of bold economic plan. Its an opportunity for donald trump to put Hillary Clinton on her heels, which is most economists say if you look at what shes proposing, its essentially status quo, its more of what weve seen, which has been weak Economic Growth in this country. Its an opportunity for him to really speak to his weakness, which is to say i do have command of Economic Policy and policy generally, and i have a plan thats going to put people to work. Its not an understatement to say this is a very big night for donald trump. John, the way sarah puts it, makes you wonder who exactly is playing defense tonight. Do you have a call on that . Well, i think both are playing defense in very significant ways. I think sarahs right, the debate format is wide open, so both candidates will have ample opportunity to outline their different policy prescriptions, but i think in each answer youll see a policy answer followed by a personal attack on one of the many vulnerabilities that both candidates have. So i think if viewers are expecting a Lincoln Douglas debate over policy, they may be disappointed. I think it will resemble more of a cage fight, and im not sure to what degree we will get into the policy details. I think both candidates are on major defense tonight. Sarah, what kind of a beating is globalization going to take tonight, and are the markets going to react, do you think . I think that we will see a significant discussion over china and mexico and youll see Hillary Clinton really try to bring Foreign Policy into these discussions because its an area where she is perceived to be stronger than donald trump. Specifically around china and mexico, and she will point to not his policies in these regards, his economic policies, but shes come closer than donald trump on trade than certainly where she had been most of her career during this campaign. Shell attack him on his commentary on the way hes talked about illegal immigrants. She will attack him on many of the ways in which he is bold when he talks about Foreign Affairs and dealing with china and other nations. Shes going to try to make that a weakness, his approach, not his substance. Because hes on his substance, the American Public is more in line with donald trump than Hillary Clinton, and she knows it, so shes going to attack him personally. And we can talk about policy a lot, guys, but john im looking over your research, you actually have a section covering the degree to which she needs to appear not sick. Why was that important enough to put in your written work . Well, i think theres a perception out there that she is faced with health challenges. I think that people dont know the facts. She may be sick, she may not be. I dont personally know, but i think any sign of any kind of Health Vulnerability will raise that issue as a serious issue for the rest of the campaign. The issue has subsided over the last week or so, but it will roar back to life if you see her engaged in coughing or in anything that suggests that she may not be as well as you would want your commander in chief to be. And, sarah, to what degree do you expect what we would think of as intangibles like that to play into this debate, whether someone coughs, whether, i dont know, theres a hug or a handshake, things like that . Theyll be overanalyzed, for sure, regardless of what happens, but i think what happens, you know, for these candidates having seen this up close and personal in the past is these types of things get in your head, so if youre Hillary Clinton you think i cant cough, i cant cough, i cant cough. Well, having a cough isnt a big deal in a 90minute debate, but it gets in your head and becomes a bigger problem than it actually is. For donald trump i think stylistically its going to be the interaction with a female, and theres no history, given the fact that Hillary Clintons the first woman to be a major party nominee, is how does he engage with her. Youre right, does he shake her hand, does he hug her, does he get in her space . I suspect the trump team has fought through that very carefully and he will be very in command in terms of how his inner personal dynamic is with mrs. Clinton. Really quickly, sarah, your exboss hasnt said who hes backing, although his father has. Have you . Have i personally . You know, im a lot like ed rogers earlier in your show, i want to believe that donald trump is going to be a great commander in chief. Ive seen some troubling, you know, commentary in the past, but im very opposed to Hillary Clinton. I think four more years of what weve seen out of the Obama Administration is very troubling for this country, and given her long history of being dishonest and untruthful, i dont think americans deserve that, and donald trump has an opportunity tonight to win a lot of republicans who are sitting on the sidelines right now watching over. Big night for him. Sarah, were going to watch, obviously, closely. Appreciate you helping us raise the curtain. John savercool and sarah joining us. You can catch the coverage on cnbc. Stick around for the post debate analysis here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Breaking news on mylan happening right now. Lets get to meg at hq. Mylan saying its clarifying the epipen profit figures its provided to congress. This according to dow jones, saying epipens pretax profits are 60 higher than it told congress, it calculated the profits by including taxes, it now says its providing more detailed calculations to congress. Mylan down almost 1 . Again, mylan saying its clarifying the pretax profits on the epipen. Bring you anymore news on that. Thank you for that. That story continues. When we come back, as ad week kicks off in new york city, facebook is still feeling the heat over what some of calling inflategate. Media link ceo is joining us, hell weigh in next. Plus, shares of twitter under pressure after fridays wild ride. And google glass may have been a flop, but thats not stopping snapchat from releasing its own pair of smart spectacles. Later on, rokus anthony wood, brand new product at a brand new price point. Squawk alley continues in just a moment. eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. smash like an administrativeyou dont assistant. Dustrial strength your 3 oclock is here. But theres one thing you do. Its called predix from ge. The cloudbased Development Platform thats industrialstrength strength joining us from palo alto, and our own julia live from ad week here in new york. Good morning, guys. Good morning. Lets talk twitter first. Under pressure, analysts downgrading the stock to underperform to perform. Saying the company is going to have a hard time fetching a sale price above 17. Thats their target. That follows our own david fabers reporting friday the company is moving closer to a sale, seeing interest. Josh, they do go through a bunch of metrics, engagement, new mobile uniques and thats just arguing thats not worth 20 times. Is that the common view . You know, i think its a real question right now where twitter is going to find new growth and usage. Theres a hope the push towards live, the video content, nfl, the debates with this great commentary alongside it are going to bring a lot more people into the platform, but its still an open question. Julia, is there where twitters growth problems start to catch up to revenue . Whats the discussion at ad week going to be like around twitters potential as a platform from here . Well, i think the real question is advertisers have other places to go. Twitter is really staking its future growth on this issue of live streaming, and i think theres going to be a lot of interest to see what happens not just with the nfl live streaming, but all the other sports deals they have coming up, and the question is, when you have so many options right now, you have facebook, you have google, who are the two behemoths in the space and snapchat, where do you want to put your ad dollars. Twitter, if its not growing its core user base, is that somewhere thats going to really be able to scale its ad dollars . And josh, i wonder about snapchat, so weve got the news of spectacles out this morning. To me it doesnt seem like this is necessarily a big risk for them, because they are not trying to crank out a million of these things and get an inventory problem on their hands, but what is your take, what could go right for snapchat coming out with hardware at a time like this . You know, i think snapchat is pushing the edges of what a camera is, this idea of actually sharing what youre seeing directly from your eyes, something thats fun, feels like a toy, might be a breakout hit this Holiday Season or early next year. I think their brand is so strong with, you know, people in their early 20s that they might sell a lot more of these than anybodys predicting. Julia, first what makes you so confident it will be well received . The price point we were just talking about at 129 feels a little bit rich for the kind of audience youre describing. You know, its a little bit think of how much sunglasses usually cost. Sorry, go ahead. I was just going to say, it does feel a little bit rich, but these kids buy branded sunglasses, branded clothes, feels more like a fashion thing and they are positioning it as a fun toy for people to engage with, not something that you need to think about as your next Big Technology investment. I think well see a lot more sold. Julia, your take on not just the hardware, but the name change and to some degree the growth they are posting versus their rivals . Yeah, its a big change, carl. What they are saying with this announcement is they are changing their name. They are not just snapchat, they are snap inc. That indicates a portfolio product, they are going to keep senate chat, also introduce things like these spectacles and implication is very clearly they are going to be more other products to come. So i think theres going to be a lot of interest from millennials in these sunglasses and i think they are going to be in high demand because there arent going to be that many of them and millennials love that snapchat brand, so snapchat is innovating and allowing brands to get in front of consumers in so many different ways right now that i think well probably see a lot of interest from advertisers here at ad week trying to figure out how they could get on top of the videos that people are going to be shooting. Of course, there might be some privacy issues if youre able to shoot Everything Everywhere you go through your sunglasses and people dont necessarily realize it, but certainly will be an interesting time when it comes to video moving forward. All right, and josh, i wonder, is this about marketing as much as its about product . Julia says a lot of kids are going to want to get their hands on these, they are going to make them in only limited quantities. Is it possible that this is just looking to drive video and interest in snap and snapchat more than its about selling hardware . No, i actually think its beginning of a much broader set of things were going to see from snap. I think the ability to change how people think of the camera, its not just something you hold and shoot, you take out of your pocket or out of a case, but right there with you all the time. Snapchats wanting to be the default camera on your phone for a long time and now this extends their ambitions. Well probably see more, even after a go pro type market. John, we talk so much about the ad rates they are able to charge for selfie lenses. Seems it might be hard to take a selfie with the camera facing out. Thats true, get a lot of eyebrow. Finally, yahoo reeling from the massive hack attack, 500 million accounts compromised. No word on whether or not the cyber breach will compromise its 4. 8 billion deal to sell core assets to verizon, although aols ceo did comment on that deal earlier today on squawk. One of the terms of the contract is there were no data breaches, and i guess contractually are you allowed to go back . What does the contract say . I think on both sides the contract has very good protections just in terms of, you know, going through that type of a process on a sale prorksz so i would say, look, theres incredibly smart people on both sides. Our interest level is protecting consumers, protecting verizon share holders, making sure yahoo if the deal goes through, we have a great relationship with yahoo and were at such an early stage on this that i think if anything, we comment on anything right now, a, it wouldnt be accurate, and, b, its a case where its a cause for methodical walk through. Calmer heads. Yes. Julia, you know tim, and you know the company. He had to know he was going to get asked that question today. When you heard that, what tea leaves did you read . Well, look, we asked him that question several times in many different ways. Are you interested in getting out of this yahoo acquisition and he would not give a straight answer. But whats interesting about that, it leaves the door open for them to try to get out of this acquisition, so i think that they are still trying to figure it out, but they havent definitively decided, which means the deal still may not closement i wont be surprised if they were very, very disappointed to have this news leak out. It doesnt make anyone look good in this situation, and Jim Armstrong when he left the interview this morning was getting on a plane to head to yahoo right now, so im sure hes in the process of trying to figure it out. Didnt exactly sound like a ringing endorsement from tim armstrong, yeah, were not really worried about it. I think its a matter of what did they know, when did they know, how much did they share, and also how serious this is. Weve seen so many Different Companies and services and systems getting breached, it matters now about the recovery and coverup, so i think thats the big question, how much was actually shared or up front and how much yahoo s already doing to recover from this. Josh, i wonder, you know, we went through this yahoo news last week, the white house had some of its personal documents, emails regarding the first lady hacked. Colin powell has learned about this the hard way. Are you sensing a degradation in the willingness to use email as a Service Overall . You know, i do think theres a real question of when you put something in digital form anywhere, what actually is going to happen to it and you should just be ready for that to come up some day somewhere. Its part of the popularity of snapchat, even among older people. You shoot it, somebody sees it, its gone forever, or gone quickly. I think thats a beginning pattern we might see a lot more. Sure makes these encrypted messaging services sound like they make a lot more sense. Julia . Well, in the wake of the sony hack in hollywood, all the studios are talking about the fact they never have been on the phone as much as they are now, and now people have even lettered to faxing things because they are so wary of emailing. Everyone assumes any email they send will be read by someone at some point. Fax machine comeback, Smoke Signals next. Josh, julia, thanks so much, guys. A lot to get to, we got through a lot of it. Dont miss julias interview with the founder of medialink, you do not want to miss that. When we come back, a first on cnbc interview with rokus ceo anthony wood. Hes lifting a veil off the companys latest device lineup that made apple tv and Google Chrome cap. Coming up. Hey gary, what are you doing . Oh hey john, im connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. Thats a great idea, but why dont you just go to thinkorswims chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders . I know. Your brain told my brain before you told my face. Mmm, blueberry . Tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. Announcer are your children in the right car seat for their age and size . Is the seat supposed to be forwardfacing or rearfacing . Did they move to a booster seat too soon . It may be too late to check when youre on the road. [blaring car horn and skidding] fortunately, youre on the couch. Roku has just unveiled a new lineup of streaming players from express to entry level players to ultra that also takes usb and the First Six Months of this year roku consumers have streamed 4 billion hours of content, and tonights debate will be available to stream on roku. Anthony wood is the founder and ceo and joins us now. Good morning, anthony. Good morning. So, tell me where these new players fit into your strategy, because youve been with us talking about tvs and the importance that those play, but theres a lot of action at the low end of the streaming stick level and your newest player actually is cheaper than the streaming sticks out there. Right, so roku, of course, is an operating system for television, were the leading streaming platform today. For example, we stream more hours in the United States than apple, google, and amazon combined and we do that by distributing our platform three different ways, we sell players, and, you know, we invented that category with the first netflix player in 2008. We do roku tvs where we license to tv vendors and were the leading licenser of operating systems to smart tvs in the u. S. For example, weve been in that market two years. We went from 0 market share to the first half of this year 12 of all tvs sold in the u. S. , smart tvs sold in the u. S. Were powered by roku and we also license to operators, as well. But streaming players are still a big part of our strategy. We have the most commonly used streaming player in the United States, and today we are launching our new lineup for the fall and its our biggest launch ever for streaming players. Were launching five new models ranging from 29, which is an incredibly low price for a full featured Roku Streaming player with a Remote Control 29 up to our high end ultra product at 129. Whos buying at the entry level . Whos buying at the entry level and what are you trying to get that consumer to do . Are you pulling those folks up to higher level players for, i guess, some people do have broadband, a lot of people now that supports that level of streaming, whats the strategy with this pricing . So our strategy with players, we have six different models in the market in total, is to cover every price point and give every type of consumer an option. Everything from low end players, theres still great full featured streaming players at 29, adding 4k as you get up to our 79 players and then getting to the ultra, which is, of course, our top of the line model. You know, our primary goal as a company is to drive an install base of the roku os as largely out there as possible, to as many customers as possible and monetize that and sell advertisers, so growing our base, one key way we do that is driving down price. For example, we launched the first 99 streaming player back in 2008. We launched the first 50 price point in 2011, and now weve hit the 29 price point, which we think will just open up the market to a lot more people and allow people to put a streaming player on every tv in their house. Quickly if you can, whats been the impact of politics on your sales this season . Weve got the debate coming up, but theres also sports, which can be a big deal. Have you seen any specific impact from politics . I mean, the president ial debates we expect tonight to be a big streaming day for roku. Big events are now streamed. The olympics were streamed on roku, super bowl, the debates will be on five different channels, including cnn, so you can watch that on roku tonight. All right, anthony wood, ceo and founder of roku, thanks for joining us. Thank you. Were counting down to the close of the uk and across europe. Hi, carl, as you can imagine, very rough start for the week for european stocks, dax falling 2 , sliding to an all time low on fears it will have to raise capital to cover a 14 billion fine that the u. S. Justice department is reportedly proposing. However, deutsche now says Capital Raising is not an issue and that it has never asked for any government help. You can see the carnage that were seeing in the european banking sector. In fact, all 26 members of the euro stocks bank Index Trading down today. The index now on pace for its worst day since august 2nd, but a very different story for germanys lanxess, agreeing to acquire chemtura for 2. 1 billion. This makes 2016 the biggest year for german outbound mmas since 2007. We also have news on turkey, Sovereign Rating cut to junk status following a string of bombings in the country and a failed coup attempt in july. The turkish lira is down against the dollar and the stock index seeing its biggest loss since the attempted coup in july. Finally, a survey shows a 76 were definitely considering or would probably consider moving headquarters or operations outside of the uk because of that brexit vote. The leaders surveyed represent businesses with annual revenue ranging from 100 million to more than 1 billion. In the meantime, we are looking at the pound unchanged right now against the u. S. Dollar. Carl, back to you. Thank you so much. When we come back this morning, facebook still in hot water after disclosing it artificially inflated numbers. Its expected to be a hot topic at the 13 annual advertising week. Dow still down 145. Narrator the best place to find adventure. Kubo come on, this way. Narrator . Is in the forest. Kubo wow. Narrator so grab your loved ones monkey dont even. Narrator and explore a world of possibilities. Kubo its beautiful. Narrator visit discovertheforest. Org to find the closest forest or park to you. Good morning, everyone, im sue herrera, heres your cnbc update at this hour. French president Francois Hollande visiting the migrant camp in calais saying it must be fully dismantled by the end of the year, calling the camp a humanitarian emergency. Between 7,000 and 10,000 people live in squalid conditions hoping eventually to get to britain. Protesters shouting insults at the former head of the imf as he and 64 others entered court for the trial of using Corporate Credit cards at a spanish bank, seeking four and a half year jail term. The uranian leader recommending not to run in next years president ial election because hes a polarizing figure among hardliners apparently and would be harmful for the country. A. M. Din jad apparently is following his advice. Take a look at that, yes, its a python curled around the arm rest of another passengers seat on the japanese bullet train this morning. It forced the train to make an unscheduled stop. No one was injured. That will wake you up. Much better than a cup of coffee. Thats the news update this hour. Back downtown to squawk alley. We thought rats were bad. Really, how about a python. Thanks. Advertising week gathers the biggest names from madison avenue to talk about the future of the business and it comes tonight heels of ad giant facebook for apologizing for mismeasurement of advertisement views. Julia is there with michael kassas. Thanks so much for joining us, you consult to the ad agencies, to chief marketing officers and also to publishers. What reaction have you heard to this news about facebook overstating . Are Companies Going to be pulling back ad spend to facebook as a result . Julia, this is one metric that facebook utilizes on a dashboard of about 14 other metrics. What weve been told by the leaders at facebook, this metric particularly doesnt impact return on investment or billing, but nonetheless its important, and i think what ive been hearing from the industry is theres so much focus on transparency in the industry today. This comes out of some of the work being done by the association of National Advertisers on transparency and billing, we have the issue that just came up with certain kick backs and rebates alleged in the industry. What is unfortunate for facebook in this context is its being lumped into a transparency conversation, and so advertisers are saying, is this yet another example of a lack of transparency from the people we trust and deal with . And so do you think well see a decline in advertising on facebook as a result . Well, what i think is, probably not. And what i think is, if facebook made a mistake here, it was the fact that this was discovered originally in august and it was kind of disseminated amongst a small group, advertisers, agencies, et cetera, but once the wall street journal picked it up and ran with the story, then there was more disclosure and i think the Lesson Learned here for facebook and all of us in an environment where news travels fast, good news, bad news, faster usually, its better to just bite the bullet at the front end, you know the problem exists, you should deal with it. I think you could look at what happened at yahoo not comparing 500 million emails hacked or accounts hacked and understanding from the press that they knew a while ago that 200 million were in question and instead of coming clean with it then, now the story takes on its own force and effect, so i think thats the message here. John, you want to jump in here . Sure, yes, thanks. Michael, john ford here. The lure of digital is supposed to be accurate measurement versus broadcast and other means. Its a big part of this push towards live. What do you think needs to happen to give you and others the kind of confidence that that accuracy in measurement is absolutely going to be there with the likes of facebook and to some extent google . Well, you know, i think its clear that if you look at the robust nature of the Television Marketplace that we experienced in may with the up fronts, television and cable having as good a year as theyve had in many, i think thats an indication of marketers falling back into what would be considered safe. While at the same time being driven by a desire to be more involved in all things digital. And so as a result of it, the need for transparency is permeating every aspect of the industry, so i believe that the way the facebooks and the googles and aols and verizons and at ts and all the companies coming together converging at this intersection, they need to really have that degree of transparency and if theres an issue, deal with it. Weve had cable stations and broadcast networks in the past who found there was a mistake with their ratings, they try to deal with it quicker and i think thats what the public needs. So last week facebook announced a huge range of measurement partners. They already have some, now they have more. What do your clients want to see, is this enough for transparency . I think the idea the marketers are demanding is they want to follow their money. Weve heard this time and again. Thap just want to know when they make an investment, when they utilize an agency, when they make an investment with a publisher or technology partner, how did their money get utilized, did they get the return on investment, so i think as much clarify, as much transparenty, and as much answering the questions the marketers are asking, which is how do i follow my money. Is there one company thats considered better from a transparency or a measurement standpoint than others . Google, youtube Just Announced some new Cross Platform targeting and measurement today. Facebook announced new measurement partners last week. Whos doing this best . I think rising tide, i think everybodys learning from one another in this space. It would be hard, julia, to pick one company thats actually adhering to all the standards and all the requirements that are being set, but i think you have to look at the leaders in this space. I do think, you know, this unfortunate circumstance with facebook, facebooks been very forthright in their views, google and youtube, as well. I think all the key players are actually trying their best to work within the system. The wall garden is creating another challenge and marketers are concerned about that wall garden, and i think this may be a crack in that wall garden as we move forward. John . Michael, talk to me about twitter. Short of a couple of quarters of growth at this point, what would it take, maybe even this week, what would you have to hear for you to want to shift client dollars into twitter at the expense of other social networks . Look, twitter is a wonderful company. Obviously, on friday we saw tremendous run up in twitter with all the rumors becoming more real about a potential acquisition by either google or salesforce or what have you. I think twitter is been a victim a bit of corporate machinations less than marketplace machinations, and i think the marketers still look at twitter as a good bet and i think the marketers still feel twitter understands how to deal with marketers in a meaningful fashion and is respectful of what marketers want. I think when we get the noise settled on the corporate side, is there a takeover or not, i think thats what needs to get settled. While that impacts wall street, it also impacts madison avenue and main street. Michael, thanks so much for joining us to talk about all these topics. Really appreciate it. Carl, back over to you. Julia, thanks so much. When we come back, open hiemer says the company is going to have a hard time selling itself for much more than 17 a share. The analyst who made the call is going to join us. First, Rick Santelli, what are you watching . Im looking at a ten year note yield of 158, and 158 is a very important area to be familiar with. Why . Well talk about that after the break. Coming up on the halftime report, bracing your portfolio for events that could shake the market. Plus the number one ranked analyst explains why hes making big changes to his list of top stocks. And jim cramer on set with us for the hour. Your chance to ask him some questions, join the conversation at askcramer, its all noon eastern on halftime. Carl, see you in about 15. Looking forward to having jimmy join us. The man does not quit. See you in a few minutes, thanks. Check in with Rick Santelli and get the santelli exchange. Rick . Thanks, carl. Ranges are very important. The market has a magnetic personality. Just think about magnets, you played with magnets when you were younger, didnt you . North and north, south and south. Of course, north and south attract. Price structure is very similar. Why do we look at so much of price structure . Listen, theres two things that are important if youre a technician. One is price structure and its always deemed the most important. And it should be. There are place markers for positions. Thats why they are important. If you have a lot of place markers, a lot of chips at certain prices, when you move away or move towards them, thats critical. Especially older price structure in markets that dont have big ranges. Now, todays a key today. Lets put up a chart. Just the month of august for tenyear note yields. There is one session that traded outside of the 150s, and that was exactly one month ago today. The 26th of august when we settled in the low 160s. So, if you consider all the positions that were put on in this dense price structure, lets continue that chart. We moved away from it, but we moved away from it in a fashion that if you look at open interest and you look at all the options theres a fairly good chance that theres still a lot of price liability. Should we break too far above that range or rappel that range because thats what markets do. They create big dense price structure and as you move away from it, the further you move, more like the magnet effect, it rappels it. In this instance it didnt take us far, thats critical. As it comes back and ive been talking about this since the fed meeting, there was really little doubt in my mind we were going to get back into that densely populated price range, and we have. Now what does it mean for traders . What it tells you is, is that since we failed to the upside to get a lot of rappelling to a new zone to take that densely populated group of positions and take them out of their game, in essence give them motivation to move faster to higher yields, now the burden of proof is what happens should we get below the 150 area, so thats what traders are paying most close attention to. As another issue, which is somewhat related. Theres no such thing as a time machine, but i think Central Banks have in a certain respect invented a time machine. I have peter on today talking about Deutsche Bank and how basel and all the issues of the day are not really good for these banks. So whats the formula here . See, Central Banks invented a time machine thinking eventually time would work its magic, but it hasnt, so the time machine in this instance is in peters words, like a slow motion accident. Think about that, it really is a good analogy. Squawk alley gang, back to you. All right. Thanks, rick. And up next, twitter shares falling about 3 after a downgrade from oppenheimer. Firm says the company is going to have a hard time selling itself for more than 11 a share. The analyst who made that call is going to join us. And make sure to tune in for cnbcs debate coverage tonight. It all starts at 9 00 p. M. Eastern. More squawk alley in just a moment. T want in industrial strength like coffee. But theres one thing you do. You guys okay . its called predix from ge. The cloudbased Development Platform thats industrialstrength strength twitter shares falling about 3 today after a downgrade from oppenhe oppenheimercyting rich valuati n valuations come paired to its peers saying the company is up for sale. And jason heflstein is on the newsline. Good morning. Hi. The stock, youre saying, is not worth more than 17 a share. Why make that call at this point . It could go for more than that and then youre wrong. You look at what competitors trade at and the fundamental those of business. We all know user growth is sl slowing. The company is doing what i would call a hail mary to try to see if you can repurpose the platform, for example the str m streaming video with the nfl. We were thinking about waiting until that data came out for september to try to see if there was a lift from the olympics, what you would think could help them as well as the stream being data. After 21, 22 move on friday, no reason to wait. This looked way too rich for us on a fundamental basis. You said it was disappointing with the nfl experiment. Are you being fair giving them enough time on that front . Clear, one is can you make money off of it. It looks while they are going to make some money, its very small. Simply put, if the nfl was really willing to offer that up, they would do it for much larger companies. Theyre trying to show twitter can work as a broadcasting platform and the reason to do that is to try to entice the disneys and timewarners and comcast to consider looking at this as an alternative media play. We dont see a tech company bidding for this asset. I want to bring up the link in comparison. A lot of people were not too excited about that stock. As microsoft and others were looking for ways to expand their cloud portfolio to give themselves a strategic advantage, somebody thought it would be a good idea to snap up that asset. Couldnt thal be the same for twitter and a risk for making that call at this level . Surely, thats clearly a risk. Were saying on fundamentals we think the stock is worth 17. If there isnt a bid it would be a discount and 17 be the upside. I think it is a unique asset, the social network of the professional business user. Linkedin was struggling with y ways to drive its own engagement but something was clearly there. When you look at the metrics behind twitter, they have product problem and they need to fix the product. The reality of the world doesnt stand still. You have snapchat and pinterest, coming on very aggressively with ad products. We think really thats the risk to twitter, that the experimental budget that goes to twitter today will have a lot more competition for those dollars next year. When you say you dont think a tech company will bid for this asset, where are people wrong, those trying to write a narrative it could be a nice enterprise tool for a company like sales force . I dont see it. I think you could have made an argument it would do better with the sales force. At the end of the day, there is data here. Google had first look at this data and questionable how google was able to come up with the data to come up with a business the two could partner with. At the end of the day, this is a media platform in our view, a way for people to broadcast information. We dont think somebodys allege to play 20th times cash flow for this asset. We look at this more of media platform than true tech platform. Well, planting your flag for sure, the stock right now tra trading over 20 bucks a share. Well see where it goes from here. Thanks, jason heflstein from oppenhe oppenheimer. Thank you. When we come back, just a few hours away from the first debate of the general election, what to watch for in just a moment. eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. Ive got a nice long life ahead. Big plans. So when i found out medicare doesnt pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. Then i got a Medicare Supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if youre eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. Call now and find out about an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofpocket medical costs. 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Call now to request your free decision guide. And learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now and down the road. I have a lifetime of experience. So i know how important that is. Only a few hours away, in fact, nine hours before the first debate of the general election. The real clear tossup shows Hillary Clinton with a slight lead, up 1. 5 points in a fourway race. Meanwhile, market paying a little more attention to retail on the downside with nike earnings expected tomorrow and oil on the up side as we watch for headlines out of the oil meeting in algiers. Tivo is down four and gopro down about 3 . A lot of people will be watching this debate. I dont know how much we will get in terms of tech policy or anything along those lines. Interesting to see which one can drive the others negatives up further. We know them at this point, right . The market clearly getting more serious and analysts looking at correlation of assets and various winners, sectors that would benefit under various scenarios. Will be a big story tomorrow along with Economic Data we get and housing. In addition to nike, paychecks later in the week, pepsi and costco, by the way, i have an equal weight at callen, as they report later in the week as well. Well see what the week brings. Now to cramer and the judge on the half. Guys, thanks so much. Bracing for volatility and how to see the two major events that could bring surging and the president ial race and real concerns over the european banks. Also on set with us for the full hour today is cnbcs jim cramer. He is the host of mad money, among others things. We will begin with the bank trade today. Ut