Morning. Dow is currently up triple digits making up for two days of losses, and well get more on whats moving in the markets. First, tesla is going on a hiring spree. According to the journal, tesla is looking to add thousands of employees in the next few years to hold off competition in the auto industry. Of course, this news comes just a few weeks after elan musk put out a call on twitter for what he called hard Core Software engineers and said he would interview people personally. Jason, do you sense that competition is heating up for engineers and if so, who do you think tesla is competing squarely against . If you are going to work for elan musk, its like a basketball player going to play with Michael Jordan or lebron james or steph curry. It is the number one destination for the most talented engineers in the world. Steve jobs would have been probably the number one destination or tied with elan musk, but there is nobody los to elan musk in terms of desirability for an engineer because if you think about what he has accomplished with spacex and tesla in such a short period of time, people want to be on a winning team. Not just because of the stock options, but because as an engineer, you want to solve big problems that matter. Go to work at google or facebook and trying to make, you know, people click on ads they dont want to see anyway, you know,. 02 more, you know, its horrible. Its a death sentence for an engineer, and they do it because it pays a half Million Dollars a twreer, but go to work for elan musk, thats like the dream of of engineer today at silicon valley. He has zero competition for technology talent. If you are tim cook today, and you think youre getting into the car game, for example you are saying you cant compete with elan musk if you are google, which historically has been out front on so much of the selfdriving cars . You cant get those people you think are going to leave those places if they are there already to go work for elan . I dont think you want to go to apple and start on day zero when you can go to tesla and you can work on the highest rated car by Consumer Reports ever. Youll want to work with the winning team, and teslas lead is not diminimus. This doesnt mean apple in five, six, seven years wont have a loved car, but apple is not going to have a car on the road in the next two, three, four years. Even five. Tesla is going to go from 50,000 cars probably to 250,000. Who do you want to work for and who is the market leader, coupled with i think the Regulatory Environment has become extremely favorable to autonomous vehicles, and that is a complete sea change in the last 12 to 24 months. You know, local governments really want to fight to get the business of autonomous vehicles, and they have a very specific reason for that. Mike, elan musk says that autopilot, which is the unit, will report directly to him. He is already running two companies. How many direct reports can an executive have . Well, he is superman, right, or ironman. One of these. Wronk that to me is the big question. To me the question is the business of tesla and how labor intensive it is. If you have this competition at the upper end for engineers, you have 14,000 employees. By the way, more than facebook has. It could be further in the movie business. In an interview with a german newspaper, Ceo Jeff Bezos said we want to win an oscar. Am sdmron has already won Golden Globes and emmys. Our current target is to produce 16 movies a were. Bezos also said he is interested in streaming live world events like the world cup. Its not impossible. Sports is an interesting area. Shares of amazon are up pretty hand where ily this year. Up more than 120 . Its his second best s p performer. Its not amazons best year. Its had better years, but jason, does this surprise you that jeff bezos wants an oscar . No, not at all. I mean, theyve won a ton of emmys and Golden Globes, and theyve got a ton of series that are groundbreaking like transparent and house of cards and a bunch of other ones. What this is really about is creative freedom as well as data. Amazon is looking at a very granule ar level of how many minutes into each program, how many episodes into each series and also the sales of dvds, historically, et cetera, to figure out what types of content on a very granular level people are reading and what content theyre watching. This is going to have an impact on hollywood thats going to be very similar to what happened when robert evans came if in the 1970s and, you know, films like easy rider and the godfather and the conversation and just all these amazing films from scorsese and coppola and lucas came out, and they really changed hollywood forever from these big blockbuster musicals because of creative freedom. If you look at whats happened to television, people have no problem justifying a Netflix Subscription or amazon prime, but i tell you, a lot of people are considering whether its worth 100, you know, all due respect to the network were on right now, for their cable connection, right . Its very easy to justify 8, 10 for one of these over the top services, and i think amazon will win. I would guarantee theyll win a couple of oscars in their first, second, and third year. It means a lot. Whats interesting about both amazon and netflix and their focus on awards is its really the only standard that they have to meet out there, right . They dont really care about they dont really care about box offices. Theres no other real bench mash for how their content is doing. They have bragging rights is all theyre going for. Yeah, i mean, listen, theyre looking at amazon prime statistics. How many people are signed up for amazon prime, and thats 99 a year. You know, i think they got three million or four million new subscribers, and amazon prime was this idea that was originally laughed at at am sdmron. Oh, my gosh, were going to be costco. How many amazon prime subscribers, how much value can we give them . If you dont have an amazon prime subscription, are you missing out on the best deal on the internet right now. Moo whats the Tipping Point on prime to which currently right now i imagine 95 of prime subscribers are there because of the shipping issue. Theyre not really there for the content yet. When does it turn, and then the economics on that model turn . Its hit shows. When you can only get a Certain Program on amazon prime and everybody is talking about it, and you dont want to wait, and you dont want to go pirate it or steal it from somewhere, you say, you know what, maybe this is worth it. You know, if you look at it on a monthly basis, 8 a month or 9 a month, its so worth it. Its going to be exclusive content. Orange is the new black or, you know, house of cards or transparent. When these series come out and everybody is talking about them, wont shut up about them at the water cooler, heats when people go back to their desk at work and sign up. He is doing it exactly right. The price of prime is currently less expensive than the why dont they sell them separately, though . Im sorry. They seem like two separate products, and if they get prime right on the tv side, meaning they get that house of cards show that everybody wants, its almost an identity crisis because some people are going to confuse the issue. No. Its the same price, and what it does is it reduces churn. If you came for one and got the other, you are not going to quit because you feel like its icing on the cake. Its the same price as netflix. You know, if you would be you would be correct if it was twice as much and you had to make that cognitive decision. You dont have to make that kind of kog nizive decision, which one am i going to pay for, because its the same price as netflix. All right. Lets move on. Venture capitalist bill girly stepping down from the board of grub hub amid potential conflicts of interesting. Gurley is on the board at uber and they think it could expand further into food delivery. Gurley said he is stepping down to focus on funding and helping wrunger startups. Jason, bill gurley is currently on ten boards, so it is clear that he is spread very thin, but do you see, as uber eats and grubhub, being direct competitors . Yeah, full disclosure, wrovl. Im an early uber investor, and uber is doing really well in food. This is really less about the conflict of interest and more about return. Bill gurley is not interested in getting a 2x or 3x return in companies when he can invest in private companies and return 100, 500, 1,000 x on his investment and he is probably in the top two or three most sought after Board Members in all of silicon valley. He is the Gold Standard of Board Members. You know, he is probably sitting there, and he has 20 board seats that all could potentially return 100x, 1,000x. He said i got to get on a plane and review the materials, and he is a very studied and considerate person. He really thinks deeply, as you can tell from what he does here on the program, and from what i see playing cards with him every week, he is super considered when he makes a decision. Super considered. Is this a short sign . I love the product, grubhub, that is. Is this a bad sign for the company . I think grubhub, you know, obviously was a tremendous success leading up to the on demand economy, but waiting an hour for bad chinese food is opposed what uber eats and bento and sprig are doing. Thats Delicious Food in 15 minutes. Kind of gross food in an hour version delicious, health where i food at the same price in 15 minutes, people will go with 15 minutes and healthy, and delicious, and grubhub will totally have to reinvent that business. The business that got them to where they are today, is not going to get them where they want to go. Bad food, you know, coming an hour and a half or 90 minutes later, 60 minutes later, thats over. Its 15 minutes, delicious, perfect food is what happens here in San Francisco, and thats whats going to happen across the country, and eventually the world. Mike santoli, grubhub has lost quite a bit of its value amid all of this competition. Not just the ones that jason mentioned, but also caviar, maple. There seems to be a new competitor every single day. Do you think theyre doing enough to get that valuation up . Do you think theres up side . I think we just heard the answer. The answer to andrews question, yes, there is a reason for concern. Its hard to know if this is a transitional technology. This was a solution for a time and place. It is a good service for the Small Businesses that can use grubhub, you know, as their delivery mechanism. By the way, last thing i can get on seamless or grubhub that i cant get on uber. I think its fine. No doubt about that. Im a city dweller here in new york. It works for me. It did raise concerns for when max left the yelp board. You do wonder what is going on behind the scenes and potentially thats why the stock is down today. Nine to five google says it has the first look at the new version of the device dubbed the enterprise edition. It looks similar to the last model, but its a bit larger, actually, and it has the ability to fold up. Thats one of the most requested features. The new glass is also expected to be branded as a business tool rather than a product for everyday users. Jason, does this look any sexier to you . No. Its the opposite of sexy, whatever that is. If you wear these on the dance floor, people run from the dance floor, which is what happens. I was at a party and a google executive came on the dance floor with google glass, and everybody ran. These devices really look terrible, and they dont provide that much value. The apps werent there. You know, google released them very early as a speculative project. You will see that they will have great application when you are fixing, you know, an engine in a car, and can you see all the different pieces and watch a little tutorial, but, you know, its very early technology. Theyre not going to be a big deal, and now i think theyre reporting it to tony fidel at nest, and nest is really having a heck of a time keeping talent. A lot of the people from the drop cam acquisition have left. Theyre all in the market going to other companies starting new companies. Nest is i think a little bit of a troubled unit inside of google, and then sending a troubled product to a troubled unit inside of google is i mean, it could be the death nail for these devices. Theres a lot of augmented reality coming that will be better. Whats the issue with nest, and the whole alphabet model was this idea of giving so many of these units even more ought onme so that they could attract better employees. Yeah. Its a fine point, and its a great idea, and it will work overall. I think the problem is people dont want to work for tony fidel, and, you know, he is just a little bit of an extreme personality, and a lot of the acquisition talent that came there, you know, i see them on the street starting new companies and leaving the company in droves. I think nest is a challenge unit inside of obviously alphabet, an incredible company, and i think spinning off units is going to work. I just think nest particularly hasnt really shown any really great new product advancement. Look at the two or three products they have. Theyre not advancing at a fast pace. Theyre not releasing new product. Theyre not releasing new features, which is exactly what yeah few was into trouble. Yahoo is a dead company because they refused to release new products. I think nest is kind of a Walking Dead Company too. Theyre not releasing anything new and interesting. Well, perhaps so far as glass is concerned, the enterprise angle will work a little better than the dance floor angle, jason. Jason. If we dont see you before the new year, happy 2016. Happy new year, everybody. Thanks for joining us. Lets take a quick check on the markets right now. Things are trading lets see here. S p up about 18 points right about now. We should tell you shares of pep boys rallying after carl icahn raised his bid for the Company Valued at over 1 billion. That stock up 8 right now. Retailers also moving to the up side. Shares of both kohls and in order stromz having a good day so far. When we come back, what to expect from ecommerce in 2016. A top analyst tells us what names you need to watch. Plus, a massive winter storm sweeping across the country ready to drop ice and heavy snow. Now on the midwest and the northeast. Well take a look at what its already doing to air travel. And Peyton Manning fighting for his legacy after allegations of steroid use. The real life jerry mcguire, super agent Lee Steinberg breaks down mannings strategy going forward. Squawk alley back in a moment. . Working 24 7 on mobile trader, rated 1 trading app in the app store. It lets you trade stocks, options, futures. Even advanced orders. And it offers more charts than a lot of the other competitors do in desktop. You work so late. I guess you dont see your family very much . I see them all the time. Did you finish your derivative pricing model, honey . For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. Welcome back. Amazon working on a big expansion for our am sdmron now business. Sameday and onehour delivery could be the key to success in ecommerce space. Gene munster is an analyst with piper jaffray. Its great to see you. The margin compression, the cost of one hour delivery or even two or three hour delivery is incredible. So the question i have is how they can possibly make that up in volume, which is so different than the rest of their business. Sdmrooits still really thin. To answer your question, they need to get that up to about four deliveries per hour to be break even with the 8 addition, and then obviously they can add on to that. This is going to be a drag and theyre investing a ton into this. Walk us through both market size if they can do that in. I can imagine them doing that in San Francisco, new york city, maybe in l. A. You know, anything thats even more expansive than that, i assume, becomes very, very costly. It is costly, and, you know, its talk about 10 per order. That is costly. Theyre putting a lot of effort into this too. They have added we track this on a weekly basis the number of cities that have come on. Theyve added 13 cities to their prime now portfolio in the last two months. That gets them to 26 cities in total. If you lack at the last three months, theyve added 18 cities. You mentioned its the high density cities where the ones that its most easily. Prime now is going to be something that is going to be a drag on the wroefr all earnings. It will satisfy that instant gratification consumer that can only be satisfying yes, there will be a some of the earnings expansion because of this, but ultimately its for good. Gene, it seems to me, you know, you talked about what the Business Dynamics of this initiative might be in terms of what it would take to make it break even. It seems to me ag amazon someday lot of these things like publicizing drum tests to send the message that we are doing everything in a customer pleasing way, and its really just kind of that over arching thing. You never need to go anywhere else. Is there a risk . Do you talk to investors who are worried about becoming more asset intensive or basically a business becoming less virtual perhaps by flying planes and things like that. Yeah. On the fulfillment side, i think investors are concerned that they may dip more into that and compete with the fedex or ups. Ups is saying their relationship is in great shape. I think have you to look at each one individually, and thats how investors look at it typically, and i think some of the things that are crazy for them to do, like the drones or the other delivery, i think that investors arent as concerned. They are concerned on our call today about what the impact of prime now is going to have on earnings. Obviously given the history of amazon, all the good thats happened is still met with some form of apprehension that were going to drift back to this spending mode. We were talking to jason. Wron if you hearted him in the last segment, talking briefly about amazon prime and the content piece of all of this. I made the observation that maybe theyre separate businesses. Maybe the content needs to get it right, and its like netflix, right . They have their own house of cards. People buy it for the content, and then other people buy it for the shipping and its not clear to me that theyre the same thing. I agree with you that theres an identity crisis here, and i think they understand the idea of trying to get some of the video, some momentum by bundling with prime and giving somebody a little bit extra. At the end of the day there are two totally different things, and they eventually can split those two and maybe slightly lower the price of the prime shipping and maybe slightly lower the price of the video. To me they feel like two different islands. Okay. Well leave it there. Gene, happy new year. Thanks for joining us. Thank you. Appreciate it. Coming up next, when we return, 2015 draws to a close. Were looking at ways you can make some money in social Media Companies next year. Were watching todays market action. The stocks rallying since the open. Weve got the next big catalyst for todays market. The european close when we come back. The dow is up over 1 . Back in a moment. Me, too, but the eulogy that franks daughter gave was beautiful. I just feel bad knowing they struggled to pay for the funeral, especially without Life Insurance. I wish they wouldve let us help. But, it did make me think, though. About what . Well, that i could leave you in the same situation. I dont have Life Insurance, either. If something were to happen to me tomorrow, how are you pay for my funeral . Or my other bills . Nothings gonna happen to you tomorrow. You dont know that. I made a promise to always take care of you kids. Without Life Insurance, im not keeping it. Besides, i already looked into it and between my budget and health, well. You should call massmutual. They have a new policy called guaranteed acceptance Life Insurance. I got covered with one call, and it was an affordable option for reliable coverage. What do you think, mom . I think its time to make sure i keep that promise. If youre age 5075, its easier than ever to get reliable coverage at an affordable price. Call massmutual today for guaranteed acceptance Life Insurance. With no medical questions or exams, you cannot be turned down. With one phone call, you can get coverage ranging from 2,000 25,000, and premiums can start at less than 10 per month. Guaranteed acceptance Life Insurance can help your loved ones cover expenses such as funeral costs, remaining medical expenses and credit card bills. We have several payment options, and benefits are paid quickly and directly to your beneficiaries. They can use it for any expense they choose. For more than 160 years, our policyowners have mattered most to us. Massmutuals ratings are among the highest of any company in any industry. You can feel confident we can help you protect the people who matter most to you with guaranteed acceptance Life Insurance. Call massmutual today at this number. Call now as 2015 draws to a close, cnbc is breaking out the 2016 playbook, looking at ways you can make some money in the coming year. Well follow social media. Heres julia borstein. In 2016 social media will play a bigger role in our lives than ever. Messaging apps will take on more than just texts and voice calls as facebooks messenger becomes a tool for its 700 million plus use toerz take care of personal business. Any type of interaction with a company, from scheduling a repair visit, tracking a return to a retailer, monitoring a delayed flight or making a restaurant reservation. Meanwhile, whats app which hassioned ads will start to make money by giving brands a platform to communicate with consumers. Content will take center stage as facebook, instagram, twitter, linkedin, snapchat and youtube all step up competition for premium videos. Livestream content and articles. As they all push to get consumers to watch and read within their apps instead of clicking elsewhere. Social media will make a big play for retail dollars. The buy buttons that were introduced this year by facebook, instagram, twitter, and pinterest will go mainstream in 2016. Facebook will ramp up Ecommerce Services for Small Businesses and all the social players will look to make sure consumers can get whatever they want without having to swipe away. Face beak as recent announcement that is bringing uber into its messenger app to bring other partners into its ecosystem so none of us ever have a reason to swipe away. Guys. All right, julia borstein, thanks so much with a look ahead for social media and what is increasingly looking like a winner takes all market. Lets bring in sinlon hobbs as we count down to the close in the u. K. , which is reopening today, and the rest of continental europe. Thank you, kayla. Yes, if you check out the figures, decent gains against western european markets, as you can see, and weve added to the gains throughout the session. Clearly, the u. K. , as kayla mentioneded, an island closed yesterday. The u. K. Backdrafted that bobbinging day, public holiday, and the u. K. Stocks are noticeably active. Youve seen the miners under pressure. The global miners or metal producers. Basic resource plays that are listed in london and indeed are over in the netherlands. Angelo america, off its lows, and still down 6. 5 . There is a connection to this country, and its a possible bidder. They said that last year. Last year they said that they might be in pursuit and they enaccount aed the share buyback. Financial times ran a story recently suggesting that they might be interested again now that they have 3 billion, 4 billion on the balance sheet, all the market cap is much higher. 16 billion. Just for the record thats where we are at the moment. It rises. Also, notable is that the u. K. House builders have done well today and continue to make gains throughout the session as you can see. Taylor wimpey as a top gainer there. This is a response to what is devastation across Northern England as a result of the flooding that they have experienced there. The u. K. , in fact, is bracing itself for a fresh set of storms to roll over over the next 24 hours or so. The government is warning of a very bad situation tomorrow and thursday. Guys, back to you. Thank you so much. Simon, no one is immune from this wild weather. Are they really . Simon, thanks. Up next, get ready tore more brutal weather. A massive storm system is moving east bringing ice, snow, and major travel delays. Take a look at shares of amazon hitting a new alltime high. Currently up 2 1 3 . Best level since its ipo in 1997. Squawk alley will be back in a minute. Come on in pop pop. Happy birthday. I just had a heart attack. And now i have a choice. For her. For them. And him. A choice to take brilinta. A prescription for people whove been hospitalized for a heart attack. I take brilinta with a baby aspirin. No more than 100 mg. As it affects how well it works. Its such an important thing to do to help protect against another heart attack. Brilinta worked better than plavix. And even reduced the chances of dying from another one. Dont stop taking brilinta without talking to doctor. Since stopping it too soon increases your risk of clots in your stent, heart attack, stroke, and even death. Brilinta may cause bruising or bleeding more easily or serious, sometimes fatal bleeding. Dont take brilinta if you have bleeding, like stomach ulcers. A history of bleeding in the brain, or severe liver problems. Tell your doctor about bleeding, new or unexpected shortness of breath, any planned surgery and all medicines you take. I will take brilinta today. Tomorrow. And every day for as long as my doctor tells me. Dont miss a day of brilinta. Good morning, everyone. Im sue herrera. Here is your cnbc news update at this hour. New Jersey Police releasing dramatic 911 tapes of three boy scouts trying to save their leader from a bear. Is he like he cant get out because of where the bear is, or is he yeah. Is he too injured to get out . I think the bear is on top of him. Soon after that call the scoutmaster escaped and all four were rescued by lis. Thank goodness no one was seriously swrurd. A Chicago Police officer charged in the shooting death of a black teenager has entered a plea of not guilty. Jason van dyke faces six counts of first degree murder. It was caught on dash cam video. Several u. S. National parks, including the grand canyon and yellowstone are showing visitation records. Over 300 Million People ventured out to the u. S. Parks this year. The National Park service celebrates its centennial in 2016. Another Justin Bieber controversy. His Record Company is in hot water with San Francisco for spray painting ads on sidewalks. The city is calling it graffiti, and they want it cleaned up. That is the cnbc news update this hour. Back to squawk alley and andrew. I cant believe how brave and calm those kids were calling 911. Its an amazing story. Thank you for that, sue. We should also tell you this isnt shaping up to be a great year for alternative asset managers. Mike santoli is here. At least for the stocks at the publicly traded asset managers. If you looking at blackstone, apollo, down 40 45 in the last six months. Private equity guy hasnt been involved. What are we paying for if were not sourcing new deals. Credit markets are soft. All this stuff kind of weighing on this group. You dont want that. If you own a share of blackstone or apollo, what do you pay them for . Just enough to nurse Management Fees on idle cash . Thats basically the argument right now is are they being disciplined or its a Better Business move longterm, or is it just dead money for a while . Whats the new cause of the markets misunderstanding of these companies because back in the leverage buyout boom, the stocks would rise when they would do a big deal even though they wouldnt realize the value of that deal for five, seven, sometimes ten years, and now theyre exiting everything, and the stocks arent going up. It seems like i think back then they were applying their advantage. I think a lot of people are looking at a fortress and saying, wow, thats really cheap. As long as the World Markets dont fall apart any further. We dont really have proof through an entire cycle. Over and over again, they say he deserves the price fixed in. You know what i would say to him, your Management Fee stream does get the same multiple as zero price 18 times. He wants to get paid for the embedded performance fees that he has got in all of his funds, and maybe you can make the argument that he alone in his firm does deserve a higher multiple, and he gets it for the most part. Hoof these companies are sitting on tons of dry powder. We had howard marks about a week ago, and he was talking about some 20 billion that theyre sitting on to spend. Are you confident that next year will be the year they start to deploy that and that theyll deploy it in a prudent way that is good for shareholders . It mite might be spotty. Howard markss record is phenomenal when it comes to the market being suitable for their type of investing. Distressed investing. Theyre not one to do a deal to do a deal. Maybe a lot of people think they can, in fact, make hay, but, again, its a multiyear payoff process. Its not something thats going to quickly turn to numbers for three quarters out. In some of the cases, not even a multiyear payout. Exactly right. Thanks. Meantime, a strong day for the markets. The dow up about 173 points. It has been positive since the open. We got good kay shiler numbers, better than expected consumer confidence, but not all of the market is fairing as well as the dow. The nasdaq is the best of the bunch. Thats happened for most of the year. Kate rogers is live at the nasdaq with more on its outperformance. Its a big year for the nasdaq. Not only outperforming. Up nearly 7. 5 , about the, was, hitting the 5,000 mark for the First Time Since 2000 back in march. However, it is back below its 52week high of 5,031. Now, the nasdaq 100 has faired even better than the composite. Up more than 10 . And its the seventh Consecutive Year of gains. The biggest winners, netflix up. Up nearly 142 . Net amazon up 121 . Third place sea trip. Com, the travel agency, up 110 . Activision blizzard up 97 . Other big names in the techheavy nasdaq 100,le alphabet class a. Class c shares up 47 . Starbucks up 48 , and facebook up 37 . All the fang stocks that we often talk about are among the biggest gainers in the nasdaq 100 this year. The biggest loser, micron technology. That stock is down 60 yeartodate followed by Western Digital down 45 . Viacom is a close third. Big bright spot here. The ivy league and nasdaq biotech etf up more than 12. 5 for the year. On track, forgot, guys, thats seven consective. Back to you. Good morning. Weather continues to affect flight operations. Not only here at la guardia, but across the country. Some 1,300 delays so far. 1,000 cancellations. Some of those airports affected. Chicago, newark, dallas. Of course, here attala guard wra. All the way to boston where its been snowing this morning. As you mentioned yesterday, 5,000 delays, 3,000 cancellations. All part of a domino affected that started over the weekend in the texas area where you had those storms and tornadoes affecting hubs in dallas and houston. Moving through the plains. Up here to la guardia. We had people sleeping in the food court this morning. People in line for hours. People being told to go home and come back tomorrow. A lot of frustrated passengers. Its just frustrating, but, you know, ive been in new york for 12 years now, and i hate to say its par for the course. Particularly this one particular airport is always a struggle. Its just one of those things you have to grin and bear it. Now, that was he has gone home. He will come back tomorrow for another flight to atlanta. A reminder, when you are home, call before you come to the airport to make sure your flight is on time, and when you get here, be prepared for some lines like this. Back to you. Okay. Thank you for that, adam. Im headed to the airport a little later this week. Selfish and im hoping they get it all figured out. Stocks rallying since the open. The dow down 170 points. Rick santelli, what are you watching today . Im listening to the weather report. Warm weather is supposed to be bad for the economy. We now know from years ago cold weather is bad for the economy. One thing i can tell you, over the years, it all comes out in the wash. Were going to take a look at gdp growth the last several years and this mornings trade deficit all after the break. Coming up on the halftime report, a rally or brace for a technician and the strategist duke it out. Advice for carl icahn. The brothers will be battling on the one stock they think their investors and the biotech back . The past three months the sectors setting up for a brighter 2016. Make sure to join us at the top of the hour. Back to you. Okay. Thanks for that. Now, lets get to the cme group. Rick santelli has the santelli exchange. When i looked at the trade deficit for today, it wasnt shocking it came on a little over 60 billion. Of course, thats in the red. I guess some of the details were a little bit surprising to me. Lets go to the bottom of the board first. We look at todays numbers, minus 65 point versus 61. 27 last month. It was a pretty decent revision. One could say the trade deficit is smaller. I guess who bothers me is that theres not going to be huge gdp revisions, but there will be some. Consider the reason we improved but are still high is because both imports and exports are both down. Theyre both down a very close amount, which is going to roll back the expectations with big revision. I like to look at atlanta gdp now. I think thats worth saying. Now it goes to the growth story. The growth story reflects many things. Lets look at gdp. We get close to finishing the Fourth Quarter. I put the last three years that we know of, 2012, 1. 3, 2013, 2. 45. Last year 2 parking lot 52. This year i make some assumptions. Heres 2015. 3. 369 and 2. 0. We dont know the Fourth Quarter yet. Im going to give it an even higher level. Im assuming lets assume that we get 2 gdp. That gives us an annualized 3. 125. The 1. 3 in 2012. If i get closer to reality at 1. 5, it comes out to exactly 2 . That doesnt change that. If i use the better estimate and figure the 2. 125 and average the last four years, it comes up with 2. 09. Whats the point of this . We could discuss what the fed is going to do, why they did it. We could discuss whether its a better value trade to be positioned as a contrarian in the u. S. Or europe. We could look at some of the trades in terms of emerging markets. In the end lets stick with home. We have policies to improve and the key the key is a defense were focussing on the fact that twos are wild, and as long as twos are wild, the productivity is weak, and we dont get a lot of growth. Most likely we wont get a lot of inflation. What does all that mean . Especially postfed balance sheet, postqe balance sheet. Its that we dont know if theres a recalibration and 140 basis points and just the sense now because theyre not placed right. All things being equal, i think the biggest risk until next year is that the long and continues to tell the biggest risk is. The yield curve. Rick santelli in chicago. Thanks. Up next, Peyton Manning fighting back. The real life jerry mcguire. Lee steinberg will join us to break down mannings next move. Squawk alley back in a moment. Plateoff spot last night. Backup quarterback leading the team to an overtime win over the bengals. This while the injured quarterback Peyton Manning continues to deny doping allegations in the al jazeera report over the weekend said that mannings wife received multiple shipment of Human Growth Hormone while manning played for the Indianapolis Colts and was recovering from a neck injury. Lee steinberg, well call him super agent, founder of steinberg sports and entertainment. We call hip the real jerry mcguire. Thanks for joining us. What do you make of Peyton Mannings against . Do you think its real . Do you think the report is real . Part of the problem today is that with viral media, any allegation can get a life of its own, and here you have a situation where the accuser has recanted and said theres nothing to what he said. Worst case scenario, hgh went to pait op mannings wife. Doesnt assume that he used it. And here you have a player who is forced to deny something, which may have no basis at all, and the nfl will almost certainly have to investigate because the assertion has been made. I think its a sad situation. I think that pait op manning just has to stay the course in this situation. Make a firm denial. Let the investigation proceed. Okay. If you were advising Peyton Manning, however, and you actually believe youre in the right on this, do you sue and risk the additional publicity and questions and all of the things that arise from that, or do you hope that this whole thing just goes away . Heres the problem with the suit. Certain portion of the public has seen these assertions. When you go ahead and file a lawsuit, then what happens is headlines filled with manning, drugs, manning, hgh and people may not read very closely. Where the original insult is to a Smaller Group of people, a lawsuit lingers and has multiple stages. Each stage would be covered publicly, and so you end up in some cases getting the reverse of what you are originally hoping for. Yet more exposure and more connection of something that might not be true. If we could turn to a slightly different topic that people have been talking about. It surrounds the nfl and their players. The movie is not necessarily taken off, the concussion movie that, people thought might focus a lot of attention on this. Actually a lot of attention has already been paid to it. Do you think the nfl is sort of obliged to do more . They already have a process in place that really addresses the chief concerns here, and do you think anything about this publicity will stick to the nfl in terms of a drag on its popularity over time . I dont think it will impact the popularity, but, look, i had a crisis of conscience back in the 1980s in representing half the starting quarterbacks. They keep getting hit in the head. We go to doctors. They dont have answers, and i started holding concussion conferences, and it became very clear after a while that every time a lineman hits a lineman at the line of scrimmage, it produces a low level subconcussive event. A lineman can walk out of football with 10,000 of them, none of which have been dib nosed, but the aing gat of which will almost certainly do alzheimers, als, chronic traumatic encephalopathy, and dementia. We have a real crisis on our hands, and so its incumbent on the nfl to research prevention, whether its helmetry, whether its not getting kids to play tackle until a certain age, and cure. Is there a way to cure the brain . I think this movie will be a catalyst and get discussion going very much the same way that the death of junior seau or dave dewerson did. Its a little underwhelming, although its powerful. Right now the nfl has spotters, for example, during the game. No spotters during practice where a lot of these at least a quarter of these concussions take place, and then theres the technology issue. There are helmet makers trying to put technology in. Some of the players on the teams, some of the league unclear whether they want that technology in the helmets themselves. I think that a major Motion Picture starring will smith, even though its a story about the doctor and not just a concussion spree is going to be helpful because it gets people talking. Now, football is the most dominant sport in this country by a long shot. Football is going to remain popular, but we need to make it safer, and each of what you describe, the helmetry, the limitation on the amount of hitting that goes on, all are helpful. Okay. Lee, we appreciate it. Happy holidays. Hope to see you again soon. You too. Thanks. Up next, could there be some trouble brewing for the iphone . What you need to know in just a moment. Some new evidence the iphone could struggle in 2016. A report from digitimes claims iphone 6 shipments could fall as much as 5 to 10 in the Fourth Quarter. This comes after analysts from morgan stanley, steve, and chris suisse all predicted iphone sales would drop in 2016 yearonyear. Something that has never happened before. Shares of apple are actually up today. Theyre up about 1 with the overall market. Mike, apple adding seven points to the dow. There seems to be quite a pileon after the supply channel. Theres definitely you know, the question is is it in the stock. I mean, the stock has been a nonperformer all year. Its been digesting last years gains all year. Guys. It was also a report 49 of new activations over the holiday time where iphones. I dont think people think its a broken product. We will see. Of course, you know the popularity of fitbit and all the device that is people got. Amazon, kindle paperwhites, et cetera. Still wearing my jawbone. Andrew, mike thank you. Thanks for joining me today. Lets go over to mandy drury. Lets good to see you all once again. Our game plan looks a little like this. Brother versus brother. They debate what stock they think the Hedge Fund Billionaire should dump. Also, the best value on the block. The one name that our value bureau Jim Leventhal says is a screaming buy, but we do begin with the rally that were seeing on wall street