Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20160912

And the nasdaq recouping nearly all losses from nationwide and it started with these comments from fed governor brainard. I was only kidding the apparent reversal on a lot of investors saying, what the fed so what do you do with your portfolio right now . Guy . We talked about on friday what was the movie, guy . Scarface. Not everybody is that you know. Which one was she . In the tub or anyway my bad. I dont know who youre talking about. One of the things we said on friday, the market traded down, effectively held the levels we last saw in may 2015. Lets not make too much out of this. The fed threw out a test balloon in terms of hawkish commentary and actually said that could change on a dime next week if they reverse course. I didnt think it was going to happen monday morning. But it happened monday morning. So i think were a little inaccurate in what we talked about. The market was actually rallying back before the comments were out. Im splitting hairs here. But that said, you know, we have held that 2134, 35 level from last may. Obviously, the 2119 low today, not with standing. And i think the market is right back. I dont think anything has effectively changed. I think that hawkish tone last week takes over for the dovish tone now and the market its a good point the markets are already pairing losses before the brainerd. We hit sessions highs after the brainerd comments. Does it make you feel better that market mentality was by the dips coming in on monday . Yeah. I think that to guys point, they sent out released the hawks. Now getting back to the dovish even though in my mind, they lean hawkish. The voting fed members lean hawkish. Rosen green was not a hawk and changed the entire dialogue on friday. Right. So you have guys that were doves leaning hawkish or quasi hawkish and then hawks who will always be hawks. For us, its about the market. Market is up 5. 5 yeartodate. This to me is the biggest biggest tight rope receipt now. You have Pension Funds that probably need to have people make a little bit more money. You have retirees that need the rates to increase. But you cant have both at the same time. You cant get hurt in both. So as long as the market is up here, the threading of the needle. They continue to thread the needle. All in september the rate hike is off. Safe to be in the market. Safe to be in the market. How do you feel . Does it feel safe to be in the market . Well, i mean, i bought a little bit of stuff yesterday. Friday, talked about it if it came in down, i would take off some protections. I did a little. I mean, it happened to be lucky in terms of timing, because then brainerd sent it off to the races. I bought a little facebook. I had i wanted to buy some uri, wasnt able to do that, didnt get to my price. I dont think a whole lot is different today. I agree with steve that there is a more hawkish bent. I dont really care if it happens in september or december. But i really do think it will happen in one of those two. And so, you know, im still long banks. If it doesnt happen, theyre going to go down in the short term. But thats okay. First of all, either embrace this correction or be fearful of whats going on. But i would say dont do nothing. And what i mean by that is, i think what we have said at least what i think ive said, markets are going to go sideways much of this year with extreme bouts of volatility. Its very difficult for me to look at fundamentals and say that things should go a lot higher from here. If anything, the message we got over the last 48 hours or two trading sessions, it wont take much. And by the way, youre going to be surprised but with a catalyst. So as much as, you know, hillarys health is something that obviously, you know, is a big political story and can be made bigger deal, you add that to what was going on, and you had a number of questions for the market, like, hey, hold on a second. A rally we have already priced into stocks based upon what we think is an outcome in november or october, november is something that i actually think you have something to be worried about. So what im telling you is, i think nothing really changed. But what we know is, look at the bank of japan. Look at the ecb. Those are Central Banks that are running out of any creativity or they can be as creative as they want. Efficacy of Central Bank Policy not working at some point. Theres no bad thing about lightning up where the market is right now. So i agree with everything tim said. But the problem is, trying to pick that bottom or trying to pick that selloff, when the duration of that selloff continues to collapse. Youve had three months. Then youve had 30 days. Now you basically have six to seven days of a selloff. I cant do that. I dont think anyone can. Stay long. Youre saying this is only a six or sevenday selloff. If you think there is a real dynamic that has changed and were at the end and were going into Slower Growth and were not the best block on you know, around right now, then you get light and you stay light. But if you think this is going to be one of those catalysts where you said because no one knows the catalyst. Its going to be a oneoff, which we dont know, you cant tie in the market like that. Whats the bottom line . Stay long. Stay long with positions you feel are comfortable, stay long with your group, your core of names that youre still comfortable with. One thing interesting today, jamie dimon, obviously he has a vested interest for rates to be higher. So ill put that out there. But he actually made a comment that we have said a couple times before, that in order for the fed to reclaim any credibility they had, they really should make a move on Interest Rates. Which i thought was interesting. Somewhat selfserving, but the first time you heard him make comments like that. Which i happen to agree with. I guess the point is this. The machines have really taken over so whatever headline comes out, a bullish headline, machines take the market higher and exact opposite on friday. Im not certain there are people doing anything of but i think the mentality, even for a lot of people after what happened friday wasp my goodness, i wanted to take some profits, and lets put it this way. There are some positions i had in emerging markets that i really felt like had come a long way, even though i am still very constructive. Nothing is really changed. But you have these so you lined up on friday . Lightened up on friday. But i think there are a lot of people who say get me back to those levels and i would happily get out again and i think thats not just a professionals attitude, definitely a retail attitude. And i think if you think about the things we got that triggered this rally, these are all things that are waiting for us. If you think about a rally into elections, weve had that rally. So well have the trump conversation later on in the show. But i dont think that the mentality for the market today is where it was on friday. Not after a spike involved. The market is going higher. Just the dynamic thats going to happen. The same dynamic thats happened now. We drifted off, then moved sideways. If they do not raise rates, the market is going higher. Im not screaming panic here. And i definitely havent done that all year. What im telling you, though, Central Banks are running out of their ability to influence markets. Bank of japan, Interest Rates in japan, by the way, getting back to zero. And i think thats a very positive thing. Is the fed more likely to raise . If the rest of the world isnt easing. Should do. So youre saying yes. I think the fed will be cautious. Im telling you, were in a world where the valuations are tough to justify. So should you trust todays rally in stocks . Lets ask Carter Broxton worth, breaking it down. What do you say . So. On the weekend, i was looking we know the resolution. It broke to the down side. And so i was trying to go back and see if there is any precedent for this. And let me show what ive got. Its data mining, nothing more than that but worth knowing. So if you were to know, which we do 43 days without moving more than 1 . If you look at all 40day periods, 22,090 of them, back in 1928. If you find those where youve got less than 1 move, for more than 40 days, youre talking about 32 of 22,000. So a very low odds kind of thing. Youre talking about. 14 in incidence rate in history. So youve got the tight range. Lets just look at it. And then is it going to break out or break down . We know what happened on friday. Broke down. What were the odds that would happen . In fact, of those 32 times, 70 of the time it breaks to the down side. And a third to the up side. So, in fact, this setup, this very rare instance, and that odds, it played out the twothirds, onethird. And it did break and it was the down side. Not the up side. So now what . I want to look its one of the biggest resolutions of the 32. In fact, it is the biggest. So these are the of the 32 times, where youve got a tight range like that, and then its broken up or down, these are the five worst. So were looking at the worst of alltime. In terms. Plunge. Which might be why we had such a big record. But if you look at these five and say what happens going forth as an average, when it it was a break to the down side after a tight range like that, these are the stats. So the average of the worst five, one month later, six months later, three months, twelve months. Now, five, six data points, you say thats irrelevant. But the principle is a debate, a resolution, up or down. This was down. And this ricochet. Im feeling a rally if you can even call it that. Fade this. Im not even going to ask you guys. Im going invite carter over. Why dont you come on over . Okay. First time ever. Unilaterally saying come on over. Tucker is bringing the chair. Here we go. So im sure all you guys have so many questions. So todays bounce. Does that lessen your view of the damage on friday at all . Its interesting. Of all of the instances, 1959 had the secondbiggest on that list in terms of the resolution. That also had the biggest ricochet. If that analog were to play out, the closest to this one, those stats are very much in effect. Heres the thing. You refer to something as a technical thing. People interested in getting their money back. Once you take losses like that, their body is trapped above. Thats the whole point. Very hard to press through the range, at least any time soon. So let me ask you something. If i followed the data, you had 32 instances that tight a range. Where you havent moved more than 1 . 32. And youre a chartist and slash statstician. Does that make you confident about outcomes . Thats right. You could say thats limited. What it what robust, infrequency. Rolling periods. That statistic alone is very robust. Meaning the standoff and the fact that of those standoffs, almost always get resolved violently. Meaning all debates come to an end. Its like a judge putting down the gavel. Winner or loser, right . The gavel came down, the bears won. And the average and now youve recovered to where i think probably youre going to run into the sellers from above who were hurt by fridays action. So my question, though, how violent . Because i mentioned earlier, how many embracing this pullback, because its something to have been done in the last nine or twelve months. And in fact, the stats here showing with the pullbacks dont seem so severe and for a market where people are so concerned about, really, these big systemic events that are just not happening. Is this a time for people to sharpen their pencil . They are happening in the sense that structurally, as of fridays close, the s p 500 index was unchanged for 20 minut months. So a maximum drawdown. Equities not paying for the risk. Every time you think its okay, you personally, you generically, it pulls a brexit. Youre not getting paid, compensated for the risk youre embracing. I think if you are buying the s p, that maybe thats true, youre surfing the wave. But for active managers, the opportunities i dont think so. Again look at the numbers. Look at the sectors that have rallied 60 to 90 off the lows. Im not saying you can time that bottom that easily and im not sure that people are necessarily falling out of a tree and selling at the bottom. But it seems to me the volatility weve had and saying that equities dont offer the right kind of risk reward, when bonds are at a 4 or 5 sigma event. And gold is not an asset allocation. I know gold has outperformed and you said this on the last show. I think if you think about the world were living in, bonds are not the right call. If bonds are bad, and they probably are, and stocks are a bad bet or are questionable bet, and cap rates in manhattan or london are 3 , thats just it. Where do you go . That might be the biggest problem of all. All right. Nice little discussion. Yeah, sure. What we do. Where do you stand . I understand what karens point is. My pushback would be obviously we cant get into that much. The world changed a lot. With the add vent of listen, machines dominate everything. I dont even think people are making decisions as much any more. Fridays action was to me all driven by computer models and todays action pretty much the same. So i hear what he is saying. Of but you have to tell me, to get back to his point, whats the headline thats going to derail this market . And ive seen everyone along the way and not one of them has its already derailed. There is no results for two years. Of i mean, look at the numbers. You can look at the russell 3,000 or you can look at the performance of active managers. Because any prudent manager, once it dumps like that in january, which we all know is sinister, has to take measures. They have to increase cash or go more defensive. And as soon as people did it, what does it do . It rallies back and leaves you trapped. All right. Weve got to leave it there. Carter, thank you. Next, the one chart that could be keeping elon musk up at night and signalling trouble ahead for tesla holders. And roger mcnamee, why samsung might be experiencing its tylenol moment and that could be good news for apple. How good . Hell be here to explain. And biotechs soaring today and one name set to surge. Well tell what that is, when fast money returns. Man, im glad aflac pays cash. Aflac isnt Major Medical enough . No whos gonna help cover the holes in their plans . Aflac like rising copays and deductibles. Aflac or help pay the mortgage . Or child care . Aflaaac and everyday expenses . Aflac learn about one day pay at aflac. Com boat blurlbrlblrlbr welcome back to fast money. Check out shares of tesla and solarcity, both seeing big gains today. Remember the whole deal where solarcity accepted teslas 2. 6 billion offer . Check out this chart. This basically shows how skeptical traders have become that the deal will actually go through. Meaning they think perhaps the deal might not go through. Elon musk the largest shareholder of both tesla. If one were to set up the arbitra arbitrage,. 11 shares of tesla. There is a spread there and take it over to solarcity. This is a deal that absolutely should happen. It should be a layup. But what it shows here is, a tremendous amount of risk if this deal assistant doesnt go through, because where does that leave solarcity. So very often, you know, you would buy one and short the other. I think in this case, they could both end up going down if the deal doesnt happen. I think that its a huge spread, but i dont think its worth the risk. And reason solarcity was up today, and maybe likely tesla, they were able to do a financing. They did 305 million equity in debt kind of hybrid. Thats good. Any time they can monetize that and investors bought into it. Thats good for them. But, you know, shows they are in need of theyre in need of cash. Right. Its good to be able to tap the market. That is good for them. The spread, i wouldnt play it. And this deal, if it doesnt go through the cost of capital for solarcity goes up. It absolutely will go up. 100, 200, 300 basis points. I dont know what its going to be if the deal doesnt happen. If the deal doesnt happen, the cost absolutely. For solarcity. Absolutely. And meanwhile, if their mega watt installations you see any weakness here there are so many hisrisks in that stock. If the deal doesnt go through, the tesla aura, elon musk aura suddenly now has got a tarnish. I totally get that. But, i mean, if you think that the deal will go through, could this back be the greatest trade . Because its what, 18 bucks at the time of announcement it was price solarcity at 22 or whatever it was . Right. Tess huh la 22 spread right now. I think the only thing that i feel would feel comfortable and im not a huge tesla fan, the range we talked about. 190 up to 205 right now. And its holding up 190. Thats bullish. I wouldnt play solarcity. I think you have extreme risk to the down side. Maybe you do with tesla, as well, but holding 190 is bullish for me. I would play solarcity to the down side. If its only lets call it a 1 in 3 chance of the deal going through selling it. Way, way higher. 25 discount. Would you just i mean, weve got would i be long tesla . Seems to hold that 185 level. I still think the risk to the down side in solar city is big . Am general the past six months and traders betting the stock has got much further to run from here. Well take you behind the trade. Im melissa lee, youre watching fast money and cnbc, first in business worldwide. In the meantime, heres what else is coming up on fast. I think gold will go up as long as people dont have confidence in our president. Well, donald, what would happen to gold if you become president . Dennis gartman will be here. Plus mom dad its evil dont touch it yeah, thats what some investors are saying about shares of samsung in the wake of the galaxy note 7. But is it reason alone to buy apple . Tech legend roger weighs in. For actual rocket scientists. And the launch crew met for a moment of reflection. Before any of this, cdw orchestrated a collaboration solution using pcs with intel 6th gen core vpro processors. Collaboration by intel. Orchestration by cdw. Thats why a cutting edgeworld. University counts on centurylink to keep their global campus connected. And why a Pro Football Team chose us to deliver fiberenabled broadband to more than 65,000 fans. And why a leading car brand counts on us to keep their Dealer Network streamlined and nimble. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Welcome back to fast money. We are 15 hours away from cnbcs delivering alpha conference, some of the biggest names in investing will gather in new york city. Known for generating market headlines. Cnbcs kate kelly with a recap of some of last years boldest calls and how they worked out. Its been such a diverging market and the delivering alpha calls were no different. In that vain, a few big ideas stood out to me in 2015. Bill miller, founder and cio of lmn investments, saying it was his biggest position at the time and it was his High Conviction position, as well. Representing about 6 of his funds capital. He praised amazons core business, praised their rapidly growing web services business, saying there is a lot of stuff like that buried in amazon that people arent aware of, and what an amazing run. Up 74 sense the conference last july 15th. Another big idea, macys. Jeff smith, in the news today, for a new stake and activist stance in para go, announced a long position in macys to realize the value of its real estate holdings. 14 months later, that hasnt happened and shares down some 46 . Finally, speaking of parago, jamie dimon had some big ideas of his own. Teva and mylan, all of which he owned at some point in 2015, he said one or two of those companies, quote, will not be around in a year from now, unquote, due to an anticipated wave of consolidation. Well, not for lack of trying, it hasnt turned out that way. And all those names have been way down in the process. York sold all of them by the First Quarter of this year at kind of staggered periods of time for each name. Then again, he also liked met aelevation, still one of his top positions and those shares up north of 50 , thanks partly to takeover news, melissa, from pfizer. And kate, in terms of this year, do you expect that were going to see a lot of changes in terms of the tilt, given the environment we have seen for Consumer Staples and dividendyielding stocks . You know, im sure we always get a basket of different sectors, dont we . Im sure there may be some trends this year where people are looking at more defensive names, that wouldnt surprise me. I think one of the big questions, and certainly this will come up on my panel, which is going to look at the debt investing environment, when are we going to get that rate hike, any chance of it happening later this month. Obviously the market looking more towards december or after that. How does that affect your portfolio or positioning. Is there still gas in the equities market . We talk about it every day here. And as much as people seem to think that perhaps were in a late inning, that was actually a question that Andrew Sorkin put to his panel, a best Global Opportunities panel last year. Which inning are we in terms of the stock market, the reasons the answer is varied from middle inning to late inning. But, you know, obviously, its still going. So i think what your view there is, of course, is going to affect what kind of names youre talking about. Kate, thank you. Look forward to it tomorrow. Kate kelly. The hits or misses in terms of what has done well since last year. But if you had to invest today, are any of these calls worth a look . What would you say . If were talking about the ones from last year, you know, i think the phrma space is clearly interesting when you consider the pressure. Some fantastic companies in that space and even in the biotech world. And we talk about them every night on the show. I think the one place where were going to hear guys talking and where they have position is financials. That is clearly the place a little off the beaten path. Tune in all day tomorrow on cnbc. Well hear some of the biggest names in investing like carl icahn, jack lew and bill miller. Next, roger mcthat may says the problems at samsung only help apple. Well explain when fast money returns. Were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. Welcome back to fast money. The market is rebounding after fridays big selloff with the dow coming back 240 points. The dow and s p 500 having their best day in about two months while the nasdaq had its best day since june 29th. Heres whats coming up. Donald trump rising in the polls and that could be bad for the markets. We have the shocking chart you have to see. And biotechs breaking out and one name traders are betting will be the leader of the pack. What that is, later this hour. A developing story on the global recall of Samsungs Galaxy note 7 phone after reports of multiple device explosions. Josh lipton joins with us with the latest. So the fallout continues here for samsung shall are, the worlds Biggest Smartphone vendor. Nose dive, 7 today. The companys market value dropped some 20 billion in just two days of trading. Today samsung also announcing that jay y. Lee nominated to the board of directors, the companys heir apparent, worth some 6. 5 billion, according to forbes. Samsung saying he will take a more active role now in the companys strategic decision making. And that news comes as the company continues. Consumers warned by regulators against using the smartphone due to reports of batteries catching fire. Remember samsung unveiled the device in early august, ahead of new apples iphone 7, which will ship on friday. Analysts say samsungs pain could be apples gain. If you wanted to try to put some numbers around it, theyre going to sell around 50 million galaxy 7s this year and assume they lose maybe 10 of those, because of this. Maybe its a 5 million tail wind, which adds a couple percent to the iphone numbers. Might not sound like much, but in the hyper scrutinized investor concern about the health of the iphone franchise, every percent counts. Now for its part, samsung has announced a global Replacement Program for the phone. Idc points out only a few dozen phones knew to be effective, 2. 5 million in circulation. Consumer memory of these bad headlines could be shortlived. Guys, back to you. Josh, thank you. Josh lip ton, san francisco. Samsung now in the midst of a global recall. One investor says this could be the tech giants tylenol moment, referring to Johnson Johnson infamous recall of tainted tylenol bottles in the early 80s. Roger mack that me joins us now. Always great to see you. Melissa, likewise. All right. So there was that massive recall of tylenol, but people still buy tylenol today. So what is the exact whats the metaphor youre making . What im suggesting here was that tylenol turned a really horrible situation into a giant win. By reaching out first of all, recognizing it had a problem. Attacking the problem immediately. And, you know, giving consumers all the information they need, and then going to extreme lengths to give people confidence in the quality of the brand. To me, thats the up side from this thing. And as the analyst in the last segment suggested, you know, if no more phones catch fire, if this is it, the story will fade relatively rapidly, and samsung should be able to get out of this mess. The problem is that this is different than tylenol. These are smartphones. People live on them today. There are 2. 5 million out there, and yes, only 35 have caught fire so far. But if more were to catch fire if this were to remain something that became a hazard, the problem that samsung has is that its supply chain is not designed to replace 2. 5 million units. I mean, a lot of these things are done at stores that are owned by phone companies who honestly couldnt care less about their companiustomers. So i think the challenge here is the logistics of making people feel good about it. If it doesnt go well, it turns into a pinto moment. The ford win toe, where the brand literally was killed by the thing. I do think thats a risk. I hope they come through it but i dont think its a guarantee. Samsung also makes other phones, roger. Of so somebody could feesly go in and while their supply chain definitely. In terms of what apple can do, because you heard that analyst, who, by the way, is not changing his iphone Sales Forecast based on this yet. But essentially saying this could be a tail wind. What could apple do, if anything to capitalize on this . The timing is near perfect as you could imagine. Because theyve got brandnew products coming up, all of their supply chain is in a rapid growth mode. And so they cant in the short run, there is nothing they can do. Realistically, i think what this is about is that is it it reinforces apples brand position of being better. I mean, the products they dont typically have this kind of problem. If the situation were reversed, it would be a disaster for apple. But as it is samsung, it helps improve apples brand. And i would not change my estimates now either. If a month from now were still talking about this, then i think this is going to give apple a product cycle around the iphone 7 that is measurably bigger than expected and on that stock at this valuation, that would be a huge deal. All that being said, roger, even saying apple has this dominant brand position out there, you still see apple the stock as a value stock. Not a growth stock any more. Definitely. Is that to be reignited in your view . As you pointed out, samsung sells a lot of different products besides the galaxy 7 note. And so this is not the end of the world for samsung. But this is a i mean, lets face it. This is not what samsung wanted to be happening right now. And its going to be a huge challenge. Right in the middle of this brandnew product cycle. Theyre forced to stop everything, take a product out of production, fix the problem and then replace all of the devices. That is going to be a big issue. For apple, that suggests they have a moment in time when they can go out there and without fear of competition, without pricing concerns, go out and make their brand case. And i suppose in an extreme situation, they could offer samsung customers some sort of discount to switch. But, again, i dont think that works unless the problems with the phones persist beyond this week. Well have to see. Peoples memories are short so samsung could get away with this. Again, i think if youre sitting on an airplane, the notion that somebody else has a phone nearby you that might blow up is not something that makes you feel good. Right . So i mean, we shouldnt minimize how significant this issue is. Roger, karen. Let me ask you something. Aside from it potentially blowing up in your handled, what do you think of the product versus the new apple phone . Well, you know, i think it is exactly what we have come to expect from samsung versus apple. Samsung is pushing on every possible innovation level at the same time. And for people who just love to have lots of new stuff to play with, the samsung products really do have giant advantages. Where the cost of that is that they dont have time to take all that brand new stuff and integrate it into a nice, smooth package the way apple does. And so the samsung phones inevitably, you know you almost need a phd to use all of the features. And, you know, that is their brand proposition and there is nothing about the 7 that changes that. To the negative, other than the fact they have introduced this new exploding feature. If they can turn that into a benefit, hey, now with explosions. Right . If suddenly explosions suddenly are an attractive feature of phones, then samsung has totally nailed it with this device. Otherwise, theyve got to hold it. From apples point of view, the camera may be all they needed here. Because apple has got a lot of old iphones in the base. There are a lot of people ready to upgrade. Roger, thanks for being with us. Appreciate it. Roger mcnamee. My pleasure, melissa. Take care. All right. So roger mentioned the camera. Tim cook over the weekend on sunday tweeting out a link to sports illustrated, giving a photographer took a series of stunning photos and then also on sunday the New York Times had an article about how project titan, the car project, may be being dismantled. Today weve got apple seeing its biggest gain since late july. The camera trumps i think you buy it for the camera now those pictures unbelievable. This camera seems to be right there. Pretty amazing. Critical clear. Crystal clear. I think its a great thing. How for the stock . I know it closed below 105 on friday. Friday was an interesting day. But this 105 level to me timberwolv continues to be the pivot point. I think the car thing is bigger. Theyre willing to edit they also ran a black hole of, you know, expense. Its a phone company. Its still a phone company, gauged on how its a phone company. They will reap the benefits of the samsung issue, trading ranges if it breaks 100 or 110, good for another ten points from there. I think its an underperformer perpetual underperformer. Of this gets me excited. Lets get to eamon javers at the white house. President obama just wrapped up a meeting with top congressional leaders here at the white house on the agenda, avoiding a Government Shutdown by the october 1st deadline just around the corner here. Also some debate over funding for zika. Heres what the president had to say as they wrapped up the meeting just a few minutes ago. I was encouraged by some of the constructive work thats being done right now. Number one, to make sure the government stays open. Number two, to make sure that were able to adequately fund our efforts to not only deal with the zika outbreaks, but also to come up with diagnostic tools and vaccines that will solve the problem for good. My hope is that we can make some modest progress in areas where we agree and weve been working together. After the election. Im even more hopeful we can get some things done. So modest progress between now and the election. The president is looking forward to maybe being able to do a deal after the election with congressional leadership, compensati depending on the results of the election. And the president was asked about Hillary Clintons Health Problems over the weekend. He was also asked whether or not he would alert the press if he had pneumonia. He just smiled and didnt answer those questions, melissa. Eamon, thank you. Eamon javers from the white house here. What do you make of this . Zika is a big deal. I mean, this is a big deal. Hasnt really shown it for what it truly the potential harm it can do. You have to look at the cruise line, the airlines and those impacted, whether its the caribbean or whether its the south. But i think if you look at the cruise lines, if you start to see some progress being made on the zika front, maybe you take a look at the cruise lines again, even though no one said its a negative just yet. Still ahead, donald trump rising in the polls and it could be bad thing for the markets. Well explain why after the break. Plus, biotech stocks rallying and one stock that bulls and pits are targeting. What that is, later this hour. Much more fast money still ahead. This just in. 50 million customers data was not compromised this morning in a Security Breach that didnt happen. Wall street, not rattled. At all no. Sir, sir. What went right . Everything. We have a brief statement on this nonbreach. Were happy to report theres nothing to report. My dads company wasnt hacked today. Cool. My dads company wasnt hacked today. Hahaha umhmmm hey nikki what are you doing here . You tell me, stephen. What . Im snapping. Youve been streaming my videos all morning. Now youre with this thing . No its not you its verizon they limit my data. I had to choose. Come on, girl. Lets get us a man with unlimited data. Why pay verizon more for data limits . Introducing tmobile one. One price. Unlimited data for everyone. Hey, jesse. Who are you . Im vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. Orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. Over time, your money could multiply. Hello, all of you. Get organized at voya. Com. Remember here at ally, nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. Whos with me . Im in. Im in. Im in. Im in. One, two, wait, wait. Wait wheres tina . Doing the hand thing . Yep we are all in for our customers. Ally. Do it right. Announcer are your children in the right car seat for their age and size . It may be too late to check when youre on the road. [blaring car horn and skidding] fortunately, youre on the couch. Welcome back to fast money. Im john harwood in washington. Lets take a look at the polls in the president ial race. Washington post came out with numbers over the weekend that showed Hillary Clinton up five points over donald trump. 4641. In a fourperson race, including gary johnson and jill stein. The minor party candidates. Now, thats the backdrop for Hillary Clinton having the Health Problem that caused her to collapse getting into that secret service vehicle. Her staff mishandled the release of information about that. Now, donald trump, her opponent in the race, who has been talking about her Health Problems in the past, was very kind about it today, said that on squawk box that he simply wanted Hillary Clinton to get better, but he went on to make a series of other controversial statements, including this assessment of the role of janet yellen and barack obama in Interest Rates. Shes keeping them artificially low to get obama retired. Watch whats going to happen afterwards. Its a very serious problem. And i think its very political. I think shes very political, and to a certain extent, i think she should be ashamed of herself. Of. Now, this drewder ricive tweets from mark cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks who said, hey, donald, if the fed was being political, they would announce that your election would cause them to raise Interest Rates. So its going to be interesting to see whether or not these comments on the fed tend to shift the conversation away from Hillary Clintons Health Problems, which were helping donald trump. All right, john, thank you. John harwood, joining us from d. C. On that. Take a look at this chart. Really fascinating one. You can see jumping every time the likelihood of donald Trump Victory increases. The big jump you see there in july. Right around the republican convention, is even the possibility of trump winning rattling the markets . And what were saying here is vix goes up, volatility goes up. The mood in the markets get exacerbated. What do you say, steve . If anything, hes not the known entity. If there is a point to the markets like certainty, theyre getting something thats less than certain with a donald trump. But i think no matter how you slice it, there is going to be tremendous volatility going or coming out of the election. Lets look at the correlations, though. I mean, i recognize i agree with steve. I think trump clearly is not priced into markets. Clinton victory pricing the markets. Talking about brexit, talking about the fed. This is what is spiking the vix. Now, i do think that if trump is elected and he attacks the fed and no president ial candidate or, you know, in office has attacked the fed like estate when were so worried about Central Banks. You cant dismiss it. But to make this correlation say that this is what is driving volatility, i think not. Our next guest as a Trump Presidency will be, quote, enormously bearish. He had tore and publisher of thegartman letter. Good to see you. Good to be seen. Why enormously bearish . For the reasons that steve and timmy both put forth. That he is not the known quantity. She is. Im obviously not a clinton supporter, not really much of a trump supporter, to begin with. Hes clearly not the known quantity. She clearly is. She is far better known on wall street than he. And the markets all are dismayed by confusion, as i like to say, confusion breeds contempt and confusion would be part of his administration to begin with. So i think that that would be terribly detrimental to stock prices, were he to start getting closer to 42, 45, 46 and draw closer to where she is right now. So what would that do to bond prices . You could make the argument that bonds are defensive, and, so you know, there should be a bid to bonds. And on the other side, he wants janet yellen to raise rates and being held lower for political reasons. What does that do to bond prices in the end . I tend to be somewhat bearish to the bond market. It has been a 32year bull market. And it looks like the peak was made the peak in price, the low in the yields several months ago. We have not gone back to that peak in price. We have not gone back to that low in yields and i think that a Trump Presidency would probably allow rates to go higher. And i think that would be terribly detrimental to bond prices on balance. What does a trump win mean for gold . I think gold is probably supported by mr. Trump. Again, gold likes confusion. Gold likes political dissent. Gold would probably do rather well in a trump administration. If i have one concern, one reservation about mr. Trump, it is probably that he is a bit more hawkish and a bit more likely to make a political mistake, a protocol mistake, which could be supported very quickly to the gold market. Gold is up rather demonstrably and especially so in euro terms. Thats likely to continue. Dennis, great to see you. Thank you. Thanks for having me on. Dennis gartman of thegartman letter if we knew extra trump was going to win the presidency today, is there an asset class you would buy or sell based on that . Ydx. Karen . Uh, well if he were to win and if he were able to to something, if he were to get some support in the house and senate, banks he wants to, you know, dismantle, which has been such a huge regulation. Regulation, which has been so expensive. Yeah, steve said it. Im not going to pretend. Steve said gdx. Why is gold doing nothing right now . This is my problem shouldnt it be isnt it the dollar is doing nothing. You have a case where people are worried about Central Banks. Youve got this trump factor. Gold is falling people that have been gold fanatics, not saying youre one of them. Frustration with gold. I mean, im not a fanatic, but im definitely quasi im an enthusiast. Politically welldone. Should be doing a lot better than it is. And i totally get that. Gdx up 92 yeartodate. 29 ago chaos now. All right, youre buying the gold. And tim selling. Go to break. Still ahead, biotech soaring today. One stock could be ready for a breakout. Well tell you what the name is and why traders are so excited right after the break. Youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide. The highly advanced audi a4. You recommend synthetic and can yover cedar . To me why super food . Is that a real thing . Its a great school, but is it e right the one for her . Is this really any better than the one you got last year . If we consolidate suppliers whats the savings there . So should we go with the 467 horsepower . Or is a 423 enough . Good question. You ask a lot of good questions. I think we should move you into our new fund. Ok. Sure. But are you asking enough about how your wealth is managed . Wealth management, at charles schwab. Mapping the oceans. Where we explore. Protecting biodiversity. Everywhere we work. Defeating malaria. Improving energy efficiency. Developing more clean burning natural gas. My job . My job at exxonmobil . Turning algae into biofuels. Reducing Energy Poverty in the developing world. Making cars go further with less. Fueling the global economy. And you thought we just made the gas. Energy lives here. Welcome back to fast money. A lot bullish activity in the pits today. Mike joins us from austin with the details. Hey, mike. So they are one of the many participants at the Morgan Stanley Global Health care conference going on this week in new york. And the activity we saw today, twice as many calls as average. And it was the september calls trading. Those expire this friday. But that will give those calls time to capture their presentation, which takes place wednesday. Paying about 2. 5 for those. And actually, right now options very reasonably priced if one wanted to make a bullish bet going to the end of the week. The call just over 1. Thanks, mike. Mike coe from austin. Ibb had a monster day today. Up 3 on the etf. 285 the level and above that again now. Vacillated to other side for a while. I think youve got to stay with the names and then amgen backs up the whole thing. Amgen a great company, very reasonably valuation, six or 7 multibillion dollar drugs. No reason not to like this company, except that the market doesnt give it the credit i think its due. Ibb stayed long at these levels. 285, 280 as your bogey. I think amgen sells to the up side. Tim, Biotech Health care being an area you want to stick with. If you look at the best of breed in this sector, proving their Balance Sheets very, very strong at a time when there is a tax coming from certain parts of the business model. So a celgene, biogen, these valuations very i think interesting and companies that are doing it in four, five, or six Major Products across the business line. Companies you want to invest in. You once were in ibb and xbi. Right. You got out of them. What would it take you to start looking again . A new administration and either a nothing done on regulation. To have is not be an issue any more. More visibility on what the regulation outlook would be. Ibb now, 50day moving up through the 200day. Bullish for the stock, for the group. And amgen the top holding in ibb. I would buy it against a 283 stop, so close enough to where guy is 285. More at the full show, 5 30 p. M. Eastern time on friday. Up next, final trade. Stay tuned. Hey gary, what are you doing . Oh hey john, im connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. Thats a great idea, but why dont you just go to thinkorswims chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders . I know. Your brain told my brain before you told my face. Mmm, blueberry . Tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. Were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. They said a bottle was just a bottle. That no one would ever notice me. But i knew i could be more. That one day, i would make people smile. [woman speaking indistinctly] time for the final trade. Tim seymour. Japanese stocks might be the cheapest of all of the developed stocks. Karen finerman. Talk in my book, what did i do today, bought facebook. I like it here. Steve. Tesla against a 190 stop. Guy. Buying some freeport mcmoran, gulf of mexico properties. Golf of mexico or gulf of mexi mexico . What did i say . Golf. So apc . Buy it off the secondary. I mean golf. Its his handicap. Gulf. Not the game, gulf, the body of water. Im melissa lee. See you back here tomorrow for more see you back here. Meantime, mad money starts right now. My mission is simple, to make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica. Other people want to make friends. Im just trying to make you some money. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you. So call me at 1800743cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. Nobody i repeat nobody ever made a dime panicking. Friday was pure panic. Today where we saw the dow gain 240 points, the s p gain