Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20160901

It is coming tomorrow and its got major implications for the fed and the markets and the rally. Your job and our job tonight is clear. What is the best move ahead of this release . What do you think . You have to define, whats a good number and whats a bad number. I think if you got something over 200,000, probably the markets say there is going to be a hike in september or start on that. What i would do is i would be buying bonds, tlt. They come off a little bit. Here is the reason why, that ism number was terrible. We are in contraction mode on that. Autos, weak again, maybe it is a plateau but certainly not growing anymore. The size of the economy is growing over and getting slower, could mean that in the feds heighten over the summer, on tlt, you buy tlt. On your view, no matter what happens with the feds, whether they raise or dont raise, it is a winwin. Everything is great for tlt. Yes. Based on how it is set up. Clerly thearly there must be scenario where it is not good. You have to have multiple job reports thats really good and the economy is picking up, lets say 3 plus. Did the likelihood or the bar get higher . I do ism and 50 is just a number, yes, it is some sort of psychological number, it is a little bit higher. I think tomorrow is the most relevant. I dont think the market believes that theyre going to raise rates. Look at the slx. I thought it is going to last a couple of weeks. It was up 3 really quick and i wound up selling it yesterday. The slf if you look at the chart, thats the one thats ripping into that meeting. Did it for the past months . It did. It flat line for july and up to 3 really quick. I bought it and sold it and now it is starting to come back in. To me, it looks like slf sold off. Based on the past, basically two sessions of market movement. They released it yesterday. If you listen to the chat, it was an amazing help and it was so strategic. You saw that wining out of xlp and xlu and into the retail space and financials. Thats going to reverse once again. What was the average as far as jobs gain on a monthly bases. Really, until these last two that we had 255 and 252, we were below the 2015 average which speaking of a little bit of what ak is talking about is the fed would like it to be. I dont think the fed is going to raise on september 21st. If you go back to 1994, there is been 31 rate increases and 97 of the time, 30 days out pricing a 50 of probability of a height. We are nowhere near. If you have any number south of 200, you will see fed fund future probability, no. For september and there is no way theyre going it does not matter to the number. I think that december, theyre going to do it no matter what because they have to figure out how to normalize it. Thats two increases in ten years. I will tell you one more thi thing, the ten year treasure deal has closed one time and thats brexit. Thats friday. You buy bonds and gold and you keep it in the tank. Every time i looked up this summer, it is trading at 140. It stops there. There is good support in the mid 130s there. I agree with bk. Maybe we are heading in a recession but it rae mains a tremendous bid. A little bit. Long is my buyest for sure. Clearly, i want a good payroll number tomorrow. I think there is a shot. They have to go in september or december. Enough of this stars are aligned to allow them to do it. It is not going to happen. I think the market to me is not pricing in. They are staying away from the election. Thats my belief since the spring. I thought they were forced into it. I dont know the answer. Who is it now . Which helps trump . Hillary clinton is seen as the incumbent right now so it helps her. Why . Because you dont want a market sell off because thats attached to obama and attached to hillary. I dont necessarily agree a quarter raise would necessarily be a meaningful challenge. It is a change. What happens when they raised the decembers market and they fell off the cliff . Right now we flat line and there is no increment buyer now. You are argument is the finance starting to back off so theyre starting to price back that there wont be a rate hike. The financial will sell off and the easy either way, there is no incremental buyer and right now, the market stays flat right here. There is no catalyst. It does not matter. If they raise, the market sells off and if they dont raise, we are flat from here. There is no reason to buy the market here. If they raise, the market is sells off, is that a correction . 5 to 10 . The duration of these sell offs have becoming shorter and shorter. If they dont raise, there is still no reason to buy the market. If they raise then the market sells off. Even if it is a 5 sell of off which is bks argument which is probonds. It is going to be probonds and proutility and prostaples. Everything sells off together with the market. Maybe bonds. At least bonds give you a you are selling your financial. Exactly. Thats because the a lot live born is hot. Thats why i am in financial. The short end of the cart thats where they are going to get the leverage. It is a trade. People thinking theyre going to get this rate hike and theyre making money off of these hi hirees. If we do get a slam dunk number for tomorrow. They still have to buy. Tony dwyer is joining us. The fundamentals have not changed. Credit has been a good shape outside beginning of the year. When look at the National Financial conditions, there is no real stress in the system. Unless you have an in version of the yield curve, a possible fed fund rates by more than 2 or some stress ramping, you dont want to sell the market. It is hard to get aggressive on weakness as brazoss is talking about. If i am over weight going into these numbers, i recommend that you cut back to neutral position so you can get aggressive again you are waiting on good news on the job front, meaning a september hike in your view . No, i dont think so. If they could, we are so good at predicting it. So if you are waiting for some sort of a pull back, what will be the catalyst for that if you dont think there is going to be a hike . Until they actually happen and everybody down 3 find a fundamental reasons for it. It could be ebola or taper tantrum. 2013, low volatility and the vix had been done for a long time and the market is up. And Interest Rates getting trend higher off the 2012 lows. Sounds familiar . You got rates to double off of the 2012 lows. The vix spiked over 20 three times if you include the end of 2012 and the market was up 30 . When you got a fundamental tail and the live board is money market. Thats bringing more money because it is lifting the variety rate. Let me push back. You are saying you are into longterm. Try to reconcile this for me. We are seven years into a business expansion, when the Business Cycle has not gone away, has it . At some point, we should start to see the turn of this cycle which is not going to be good for stocks and all the good credit factors that you put out. To me, those are manipulative at this point because of whats going on and those signals are not good anymore. Well, they are good. It is work. Positive credit, easy fed and led to Economic Growth and outside economics. If we are looking at duration for Economic Cycles, then you would buy the heck out of it, sorry, in 1992 during the nine months recovery because its got to last the coverage of four years. It is not duration. If i can make one statement on the show today, the Economic Cycle is not about cycle. The Economic Cycle is driven by fed policies and short term rates. You invert the curve and shut down credit. I refinanced my debt and took some equity out. Right now it is sitting in catch and maybe i will buy stocks or pay off some debt. At the end of the day, credit is available. As long as thats a case, you are going to have buy backs. It is not an easy fed that goes away. It goes away but with overtime. As you know, when the fed starts to raise rates, it takes an average of 21 months to invert the curve. Once you invert the curve, the mean in version is 15 months. You have three years from when the feds start to raise. You can wait to come out of the in version before you expect the reception. Wait a second. Your last word. I am sorry. The whole curve is manipulated. How can you compare it to anything else we have had in the past. They told you will it is going to be a fetch pitch down the middle. You are going to take this or hit the homer . The catcher just told you what to pitch the entire cycle. I am not smart enough to figure out if it is different this time, but i know the catch. So they figured out a way. What thats what i am asking. It is always Economic Data and under estimated. The economy is stronger and payroll is higher. When you invert is when you will get numbers. Theyre never going to do it. If the fed goes to 2 , you have inverted the curve. Why would they do that . I am sorry, sorry. Tony dwyer, thank you. Just quick, we are out of time here. A show of hands, jobs for tomorrow is good enough for the cause for feds to raise rates . Yes . I am going to go with yeah. I dont know if thats going to do it. You know last year where the feds raising it for the first time in nine years, they yield of 2. 2 and now is 1. 56 . It does not matter if they raise it in september. I agree with that. No matter what the number is, theyre not raising it. Coming up, a shocking explosion of a spacex rocket, well tell you the concerns of this. And one big box retailers dissounded their alarm and potentially their rally. Well give you the name why investigators are so concerned. There were a couple of gray spots this month. We got the details when the fast lane returns. Siemens dital grid manages d, so service can be restored within seconds. Priority number one is keepininthose lights on. It takes ingenuity to deat the monstethat liv. Whoa. Whats going on here . Im val, the orange money retirement squirrel from voya. Val from voya . Yeah, val from voya. Quick question, what are voya retirement squirrels doing in my were putting away acos. You know, to show thimportance of saving for the future. Sooure sort of like a Spokes Person . No, im more like a metaph. Ay, a spokesmetaphor. No, im. Re a spokesmetaphor. Yeah. See how voya c hp you get organized voya. Com. E l. Welcome back to fast money. Shares of Campbell Soup has went down. It is now cooling off. Campbell soup was up more than 18 . Hersheys was up to 24 before falling. Sm tyson food is the only one thats higher. This is apart of the rotation. I would look at this as a moron proxy. Consumer staple stock ws a dividend yield. This is what happens when earnings missed. It is not like a bond. You get this quite of a bit of a sell off. They relatively save stocks and everybody is going to buy their Campbell Soups. You got to know that you are going to have this volatility in it. Tyson foods is a little bit different just because it is a different sell than hershey and campbell. You may want to buy it on weak necessa weakness but not right now. The growth needs to be there for the stock multiples to be there. I am not how close it is but food deflation, theyre not able to raise price in the face of food deflation. That could be part of whats going on. The tyson was their feed coscos cause. It is more or less of what you said on staples. That has to change and maybe perception around feds and rates to get people back. Look at cocacola, this is a stop that has been hurting the last few months here. It is been trending lower. Foot locker. Yeagain here is as company w he is whose earning is declining. It is offensive they have that yield but to me it makes to sense. Proctor and gamer, you would think this is appropriate but it is about an all time high right now. Generally of what you mention on these food stocks and looking at some names like coke, their trend is lower. Check out lulu lemon. Well tell you what it is, right after this break. I am melissa. Here is whats coming up. I have a license to carry in new york, can you believe that. Nobody knows. [ cheers ] somebody had texted me. That maybe true, could trumps presidency be bad for guns . Well explain. Plus, is elan mosk unraveling. Well tell you what it could mean for the stocks when fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money. The stocks is dying. Our cnbcs aditi roy got the latest. This after the Company Reported of weak guidance headed in the next quarter. The ceo did say the company benefited from greater Operational Efficiency this quarter. Benefits on lodgistics. The price had been soaring this year of more than 50 to date. Some analysts questioning whether the stock prices can be maintained. He also forecasts costs to go up this quarter with the Company Opening 42 Stores Worldwide and guys, just an update of the eps number earlier, we told you it was 39 Cents Per Share but thats just an adjusted number. It brings it in line with expectations. Back to you. How do we like lulu here compares to some of the others in space . Great, great company. The evaluation, it was not a horrif horrific earning report. It was price for perfection and they did not have perfection. They did have some bright spots and not so bright spots. Gou you got to wait and let it shake out a little bit. It is still expensive relative to a foot locker. I am not in finish line but some similar exposure there. This is a great company. I think retail is challenged across the board. We went from staples into retail. Retail got demolished and you look at macys is down from 11 and nordstrom is down. Lulu lemon gives them a fundamental reason and challenged on evaluations. Thats going to cascade it. Check out kcostco, those shares are falling and we have autoshares which were weak. This is a mix picture . These are the leading indicators of the economy. The jobs report is a lagging orb coincidence thats happening at the same time as the economy is startingment look at those anymor numbers. Lulu lemon is a little tough to thr throw. You have to have a blow out number for lulu lemon to be doing well. I would be cautious of under armor, i would not be buying it. I would be cautious over this as things weaken every aoverall. I think it is a faddy company anyway. The point is this. When you see the move that costco had just today on the same store sales and the qv sales lower than expected. Thats a real problem. We had last month of txj and target and massive gas. You have a situation where u. S. Consumers may not be as strong as the feds would like it to be. We were so long saying consumers are not spending on stuff, theyre spending on restaurants and traveling and experiences and restaurants. Can i Say Something . Spending is an indicator. Apple is going to introduce the iphone thats going to cost on average of 600 and Something Like that and a week after, theyre going to put it out for sale and three days later, they should tell us how much they sold. The disappointment is other than the fact it is just the same phone they introduced the last two years, it could speak to what the u. S. Consumers is willing to spay. A massive report. Investigators are searching the stocks and its got one trader running the hills. We got the details later. Much more on fast money still ahead. Energy is a complex challenge. People want power. And power plants account for more than third of energyrelated carbon emissions. The challenge is to capture the emissions before theyre released into the atmosphere. Exxonmobil is a leader in carbon capture. Our team is working to make this technology better, more affordable so it can reduce emissions around the world. Thats wt were working on rightow. Energy lives here. Welcome back to fast money. The Major Industries were able to closed their lows. The s p were in near negatives. Here is whats coming up in the second half of fast money. Smart fun is trying to make a come back. We got the biggest winners and losers and the stocks that help them get there. Even though gun stops soared, we got the surprising details of what it can mean for gun sellers. Shares of other Companies Tesla and solar cities sharply falling today. Tesla is buying solar city, remember. Certainly a rough day for elon musk and both of his companies both felt it today. Lets start with spacex because the video that came out it was stunning. The explosion on the launch pad, we should point out that there was nobody injured in this explosi explosion. Any of the cargo that was on there including the satellite of a complete lost as you can imagine after an explosion like this. The lost of the falcon vehicle today during the operation originated around the oxygen tank is still unknown. That was a couple of hours ago, we have not heard from elon musk of the explosion of spacex rocket launch that had the explosion in florida. A rough day for tesla. A lot of it started yesterday after the company had a filing and they outlined the fact that they would need to do a capitol raise or an teequity capital raise. Where it was at the end of the Second Quarter for tesla, they had some expenses in cure inside the Third Quarter or will in cure through the end of the year. What you are left with is a cash cushion unless they do a capitol raise or a cash cushion of 400 million. Thats the reason why sales of tesla is under pressure today. It is the debt to equity ratio thats starting to worry people. The ratio has always been a problem if you are a tesla investor worrying about the downside. Sure. It seems to be getting more attention the last couple of days. Especially tesla is buying a company with the ratio of 377 . According to the latest calculation, thats an issue. Phil, there is a question about spacex brings the whole notion that elon musk got its hands in a lot of different pots at this point and not just mentally but financially. Hes supporting these companies, personally, supporting the company but that could be a distraction and there is collateral held and loans and etcetera, it is a sticky web. And you look at some of the buyers of solar city bonds earlier this year. Spacex, now, that does not mean, there is nothing illegal about that. It does give a lot of people pause when they look at whos buying these solar bonds from solar city. Remember, they just had a bond offering that they announced within the last couple of weeks of elon musk and his two cousins who run solar cities, they were the major buybuyers, not all of but a good portion. I think they stepped up to the plate and between the three of them bought 100 million worth of those bonds. Again, it is their personal money that they are putting into this. Thats what worries people. Elon said today as you can imagine of whats going on with spacex, he put up the autopilot update and the enhancement and the vision, hes now saying it will happen this weekend. It is some what of a distraction. Yes and the least. The other part of the cousin buying 80 of that solar city bond is in the filing seems to applying that a week later they go out to the market of this bond with the three of them buying 80 of the bonds. Nobody came to the party so basically the three of them. Fthe deal dynamic of the solr city of tesla. It is a huge distraction. We follow the spread, and it blew out today. Now, this is the spread between what you are going to get and what your solar city shares will turn into teslas stocks. A deal like this where the buyer controls or owns would trade some type of shareholders vote needed by the teslas shareholder. This is hugely, problematic for people feeling, well, something could fall apart. Whats the likelihood of that . Well, there are some conditions of that. There is capitol tests and tesla test. They could amen it or piece it together in one way or another. This reflects a lot of fear about it. Yeah, i have not been on board with tesla on a host of other reasons. The stock is over sold. The last three times it was over sold, it rallied back and bounced aggressively, i am not going to say it is going to happen this time. It was in february and rallied 90 . It was in may and rallied 18 and june for 20 . I am not saying, i dont like the fundamentals, i am just specifically talking you like levels. We are right at 200. 205 to 190. Yeah. So we right in the middle. To the low 180s which was the most recently. 187 seems to be the latest bounce zone. To me on the retracement i have a 205 down to 190, it is still smack in the middle of it. Well, here is the thing, all these bad news thats coming out about tesla where they changed their Business Plan and everything thats coming out negative has not hurt the stocks that much in the longer term. It basically trade it sideways here. Everything has not really helps. I would say let me just add one thing. At one point in february, the stock was down 40 . Thats when we were talking with tony, this set up is one credit, you know, one credit event from being much, much lower when you think of them taking on with a lot more depth. I think there are some estimates maybe he owns 20 or 30 of that. When you talk about all this stuff coming under his domain now, i mean hes essentially the ceo of it. If you combine these states, it is still relatively small percentage. Yeah. So can we blame and use that as something against elon musk for how shehes handling his affairs. I dont think so. Much more is his mental. I mean hes a busy guy and there is a lot going on there. From one trouble stop to another. Twitter shares, dan, what are the saavy trader . Today, the call volume is six times afternooned tveraging the. That was capping at two day and a 10 rally. Mr. Favor was reporting on the fact that he thinks there is some activists looking at it. He did not make any strong statements that anybody is building positions and really trying to affect some change but this is what activists and investors do. Theyre talking about and open how they would be exploring or opening to strategic options. We are on the anniversary of jack dorsey return to the company as a ceo. This is the action today. All that call volume, it was not from what i could tell. There was a large seller on the december 20 calls. Almost 20,000 of them trended openly after it opened. Like i said, over the course of the day, blocks of between 1500 or 3,000 were traded up to 19,000 or 600 looked to be closing. From the estimation from the activity today, it looks to me that traders were taking profit into this. I want to make a point about this thing. This could be what some technicians called a golden cross at resistance and you have the short good news or maybe higher highs here. What do you think . There are so much values in twitter. If there is an activist out there that can unlock it . What i am saying is that if you are going to unlock the twitter value, if they say theyre the largest News Organization in the world and they embrace it then i think twitter is going to go much higher. Check out our full show 5 30 p. M. Eastern time, tomorrow. Smith and wessen. We got the surprising answer, next. It is a battle of billionaires head funds trying to get back in august. Well have much more details straight ahead, more on fast money. Hey gary, what are you doing . Oh hey joh im connecting our brains so wcan share our amazing tradinknowledge. Thats a gre idea, but why dont you just go to amthinkorswims chat rooms where yocan share strategies, idea even actual traras wi market profsionals and i know. Your brain td my brara thbefore youold ac traders . Mmm, blueberry . Tap intohe knowledge of her t. Only atd ameritre. Welcome back to fast money. We got earning alert of smith and wesson volatile. Shares are down after hours. The ceo says sales were impacted by inventory reduction initiatives. Earnings helping with firearms and seen in numbers of background checks. Announcing to acquisitions and Taylor Brands and crimson trace in the first quarter. Shares are up about 30 or more this year due to upbeat earnings and analysts pointing out that the prospect of tighter gun control continues to drive gun sales and the topic of the upcoming u. S. Election, the current guidance does not assume any particular election outcome. We really focus on our market share and gains. Stocks are gone down by half a aft percent. During time of george w. Bush, under president obama, shares have climb 28 bucks gaining 1100 . Is this stock a winwin no matter who takes the election . You dont like winwin situation . No, i dont. This is how i am thinking about it is that Hillary Clinton wins, the stocks go up. If trump wins, you sell the stocks. Lets connect the dots for r view viewers here. It is going to be a surge going into whatever tighter gun control comes in. Thats the play on this. Thats what it looks like. What about bush . I think you have a smoother revenue base with the republicans and to your poi point terrorism was a factor also, i would imagine. Did the industry consolidate . But, there has been threats of gun control all the way through and thats what driven the stocks every single time whether it is democratic or republican, it does not matter. It is the fact that there is threats. It goes up when there is a mass shooting. It is horrible but thats whats happening. Is there eye process that if gun laws loosen in anyway or favorable that it is good for sales . Possibly. I suspect that we talk about two eight years presidency who earned stocks have done very well. I think lawabiding americans are able to get their guns especially of guns of the smith and wesson. If you think guns are going to be in america for a long time. Gun makers are not held responsible and that lack after potential i think we are talking about macro 50,000 feet out. I dont know why usually it is a good thing. Exactly. I would be more concerned on that on a grandular bases instead of the ideology site. If you are trading stocks, go to the website and you can see and thats how you trade the stocks. Lets switch to our developing stories of the largest head funds. Some of the brand name head funds are finding themselves right align in ted in the marke this time of the year. An index fund can do just as well. Take a look at some of the earlier reports of the flag shift of the adventure driven fund returning at 6. 2 through the year to date. We should know these can be dated and we dont know if they still hold these positions including Baxter International and allergan and also facebook. The long shore fund and green light capitol. It is ending the month of 5. 4 during the day. It is a come back of recent funds. Green light top holdings, they had a mix august with time warner and ending the month of 13 . This is kind of an interesting one with citadel. Only just crawled in the black from what i understand, after a month where they were up 2. 4 and now theyre slightly in the black. Finishing down a little bit over 100 for the month alone. So things are looking a little bit better. Hedge funds, these hedge funds can at least say, hey, we are in line with the market and we have longterm echlvaluation stories here. David talks about his short bets from time to time, i think he still has his by the wio tec basket. There are a lot of under performers out there and citadel as i just mentioned and some maj major names are way down. And glennville capitol and mavericks and also down, those guys were both down by 7 . They have released their end of august numbers but they were down 16 , largely due to value but still, thats a bad call. Does getting close to be as little alpha is enough . No, i dont think it is. So it seems like fees are starting to come down and being eroded to a different model. What is the future model . Across the board, i dont know where we are with two and twenty, is the average going down to like 19 and 1. 5 . I am not sure. The within reason fee cutting was tutored. You know whats interesting here and i was speaking to a Pension Fund Manager yesterday in new mexico, the hedge funds suffered from a couple of obstacle issues, they dont have a benchmark. Do you compare them to the s p . And even then it may not be fair. Do you compare them to treasury bills . There is no apple to apple comparisons which is a complain that i get a lot. When the viewers look at this, well, s p does not tell the whole story. If they are a great hedge, they need to do steadily and well or horrible times and as good or better better in better times. All right, kate, thank you. Still ahead, tomorrow, will be a huge day for the market as traders are waiting for jobs report. They are watching out of the open after this break. Much more fast money straight ahead. Is found in e di a4. With one notable difference. The high advanced audi with vailable traffic jam assist. Hey, jesse. Orange moneyeprents e money you t away forretirent. Ive, the orangeey retirement rbit from voya. Over tim your money could multiply. Hello, all of u. Get ganized at voycom. Mary buys a little lamb. E of millions ofrds companys ser. Accessle by thsands of suppliers and employees globally. But th Cyber Threats on the re, mas data could under with the help of at t, d migates ber threats, their Critical Data is safer than ever. Giving them the agility to be open secure. Beuse no one knows le at t. The light lba bright idea if you use the rights. Sang you up to 100 over their lifetime. Heres an idea replace yours toda [light instrumental muc] they just signed a ten year lease for the entire second floor. Wow, i think it will do. They came not just for the views but because of what happened. 9 11 has been a water shed moment for this generation and my peers and the opportunity to go downtown and to be apart of the rebirth of that neighborhood that a lot of people have done an incredible job with, it is an honor for us. That was a sneak peek of jim kramers new documentary where jim visits the World Trade Center no visit with tenants. It airs tonight at 10 00 p. M. Eastern time right here on cnbc. The constructional retail area is playing a key role in the resurgence, courtney is there with the latest. Reporter hi there melissa lee, new york city has appearanc experienced quite the rebirth since the 9 11 tragedy. More than 2 millions square feet of retail spaces have been added to Lower Manhattan in the last two years. Rents are way up, too. Financial district available and ground floor retail rent has grown up nearly 100 over the last decade. The World Trade Center mall released with more than 100 brands including an apple store and kate spade and not every store is opened yet. You will find names like bu burberry and gucci there. That is meant to feel like a marketplace and more artisan selling their goods as oppose to bigger name brands. Foot traffic is key here. 13 trains and subways delivering approximately 300,000 commuters to the area everyday. They are expected to have 15 million tourists visiting the neighborhood next year in large part to visit the memorial and the museum. Melissa. Courtney reagan in Lower Manhattan, the final trade is next. Is the stuff tt matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, ur fure. Do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that adses governments and the rtune 500, an can deliver insighterson onhat matters to you. Morgan stanley. Yes, we are talking about srt, i want to focus on those big names, costco and tjx, toipt focus on those big names. For me, the job market tomorrow, you buy some tlt. Karen. Wait, wait, at least three days. Slf, you could see good number tomorrow. Sell. I am melissa lee, well see you tomorrow. Two things tonight of my mission is simple. To make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica. Other people want to make friends. Im just trying to make you some money. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate and put it in context. Call me at 1800743cnbc. Maddening inconsistency. That has whats has wal