Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20160616

Puzzling day for the markets stop staging their intraday reversal since march and the move came as reversed sharply off lows, this following tragic death of uk lawmakers some interpreted to mean decrease odds of brexit. Is brexit now off the table . How do the markets respond . Bk, you made the observation first. Its terrible that market is actually reacting to this type of thing and action. That did move the market, the pound move and the rest of the markets. I take this as saying its not necessarily off the table at all. But given the way the markets were trading, you had so many down days in a row, a lot of people shortterm shorts in it. It was probably a good place for people to cover and that accelerated itself. I would not necessarily buy into the rumor brexit is off the table. I think its still out there but there are other issues we have out there and thats the slowing of the Global Economy. If you believe its an option, on the table, you had market reaction, this could be a tradeable moment. Gives a glimpse of what may happen. A couple, look at gdx, 52week high, lows, big reversal not ready to call gold move over. Ardent bulls, i consider myself one of them, have to be dismayed, gold over 1500, that is the level and reversed lower. Something to watch. Again, im not ready to call it over but something to watch. Flip side, bonds, tlt, didnt hold entire bid but most of it. Again, yields going lower. I see whats going on with the dollar. Not ready to call the gold mood off but have to absolutely watch over the next few days how gdx reacts. This is range trade. Oversold, options expiration, a number of factors, relief on brexit, now bre main. You had the situation first of all yields can bounce. All these defensive trades you had around brexit, sell off of gold, gold is safety. I dont know. Again, i think gold is going higher so im not going to pile on that. I will say i think utilities are sell. Anything defensive, the place to run in the last couple of days bond market a dehydrated, 170, kudos to guy. I actually think, i dont know if i made this clear, no question yields lower, no question relative value around the world this is something. But my view, unlike these guys, i think its very equity positive. Doesnt mean we dont have enormous volatility ahead of us. At the end of the day, people negative yields i think it was equity positive. Im not sure still equity positive. To add to what tim said, you have rebalance. Net adds are going to be utility and energy. Those are the biggest net adds. Net sales Consumer Discretionary and industrials. There is rebounds with gold as well. I still think gdx is a buy. I think its a buy in any market. Last time they raised gdx sold off, then rallied. It was up 90 up until recently. Than it came back. There have been days it reversed. It seems as though the only they think you were buying that didnt turn its back on you were yield plays an gold. What were you doing specifically today . I took a little bit of profit in some gold and some tlt, such a run. I still think gold goes higher. I thought the most interesting thing with gold trade and dollar, they both sold off in tandem. Positively correlated. To me i take that to me safe haven assets. Hoarding of gold, hoarding of u. S. Dollars in this environment. They trade together, which is very different from what most people expect. I was talking to Chris Williams earlier today on power lunch. He was mentioning that you have the possibility of blrexit off the table, what if theres a delay, this was a rumor, he mentioned to me. That would be a brelay. Enough of that. Of the breferendum. Serious business. Not laughing at that. Continue. What kind of environment does that create, theres a delay. Everybody talks about waiting for certainty. They are never going to the it. All that does is add to uncertainty we already have. Theres going to be a vote at some point. My opinion, i think its a coin flip. I think cooler heads will prevail. I want to go back, i happen to think its the crux of this market. Yields are going lower we both agree. Bullish or bearish. One of the reasons money needs to find a home, i say its bearish because it signals something to me that the economy yields arent this low. I use that term a lot. I use it with oil. Gets to the place market takes why the stocks . Why go into stocks . Hold on a second. Lets talk about yields for a second. Guys talking about yields. Its stock positive. Yes, it is. In fact, theres no place to go. Dcf model, discount rate, everything lower, no place to go. You squeeze people out of the bond market. Absolutely equity positive. I want to go to the price is truth. I know exactly what tim is saying. When i say price is truth, this is what i mean. The only thing you have to base decisions off day to day is where things are trading and where things close. In that regard price is truth. If youre short of stock at 30 and trading 35, regardless whether or not you think its a 10 stock, 35 is your truth, the truth you need to make a decision. How about this run up in stocks that may be fueled by the fact theres no other place to put the money. Is that yes, it is. If youve been trying to play it from the short side all along, regardless of what you think should be happening youve been wrong, price is true. I want to say this about the bond market. Just because yields on the u. S. Are going to break for this 150 level at some point, it doesnt mean that the Global Economy is on its knees. It means Central Banks around the world are buying every bond they can. Central banks feds we did hear yesterday that yellins concerns were growth. I think that i agree with your first thesis, but it really hinges on Global Growth. Yes. The questions arent there because Global Growth is so bad. There is a point where the low yields are not good. We look at germany, japan, negative rates, those markets tanked. At some point that flips. I think it has flipped. For more in market action, head of quantitative and derivative strategies at jpmorgan. Mar marco, good to see you a fierce debate on what the market level means. Whats your take on stocks now. I think tim is right. Stocks, we expect high volatility in stocks. High volatility typically not good for the level itself. If you look at the leverage in the market across various strategy its relatively high. Stocks are going to be more volatile. They may be range bond or down lower thats sort of a short view on stocks. Short view. The risk reward is really to the downside. Towards the downside. We had sort of a positive price action for the past several weeks, last few days a little bit of pullback. So if you look at hedge fund lempl, look at the lempl disparity, volatility strategies, retail investors, its relatively high. We are already at the high level. If you look at europe, europe pulled back significantly. U. S. Hasnt. I think we had a few in front of us, next week, next month. Risk to the downside on s p. How much downside, looking at yields earlier in todays session tenyear trading 2012. Highest level since february. We all know what happened in february. Gold screening higher in general, maybe just not today. What is commensurate with those kinds of signals in the other Asset Classes in terms of downside for stocks. For stocks. I think we could probably be looking at, you know, vix going to 20, 13. 5 to 20, that would be commensurate. We obviously s p did not react, vix reacted obviously last week a lot, last few days. Realize volatility did not react. Its really anticipation of risk, which, again, sort of we have next week potentially brexit, fed july, some seasonal weakness this time of the year. So investors are piling into hedges but market is not yet moving. So we were talking about the dollar and gold together. I notice you shaking your head that was an interesting move today. Youre looking at all these strategies, various hedge fund strategies, a lot are correlations between assets. How does that either change what youre looking at or how does that impact your view . Gold is driven by a few different relationary, dollar, risk where you mention today traded risk gone, dollar and gold sold off. I think with the fed last few days, it traded actually fairly inflationary with coming lower, dollar weakening, gold shooting up. It has these multiple faces. Thats an attractive feature of gold. If you look at Central Bank Balance sheets all time highs 10 trillion negative yielding bonds. As inflationary asset, i think it helps. Potentially if things turn for worse, its also going to pick up this risk of hedging. Where do you see the 10year yield going . 10year yields, near term i think 10year yields go lower. Thats spillover from booms and japanese going negative. That spills over and should yields go lower. Medium to longterm, i think its a potentially dangerous situation. I think clearly if you look at jgb, some evidence there, Central Bank Buying most new issuance, yields negative which i dont think makes a lot of sense. I think medium to longterm potential risk situation and sort of backfire. Shortterm, i think they tend to go lower. Momentum positive for bonds so yields go lower shortterm. Do we see one four. I wouldnt say targets. Okay. Marco, youre also quantitative, derivative guy. Ultimately you look at these relationships, as we said, between Asset Classes. Europe is so oversold relative to the u. S. Here. Dont you like european equities . Wouldnt a great trade short s p against long dax, because again, two, three standard deviation event, which is just empirically a raremont moment. If i had to go long equities, emerging markets or europe, down 27 from the high, s p close to the high. If theres sort of some of these risks ahead of us, we could see that convergence. Snap back could be bigger in europe than u. S. If i had to put some inequities i would there. If you had to. Sounds very hedge the way you put it. No. I think investors have to have equity exposure because you cannot know the future. Theres always probabilities. You might lean bearish over bullish, 70 30, 60 40. You cant just not have equities. Again, emerging market, europe, thats your best bet now. Marco, thank you. Good to see you. Jpmorgan. Would you be on marcos trade. On his team. Smart guy. As a trade. Different story. Team, yes. I like a lot listen, i skew negative in terms of s p shortterm. I understand what tim is saying threeterm standard deviation event. To me germany is rolling over. Does germany camp up to s p or does s p catch up to whats doing on in europe . I think its the latter. Again, thats what makes market. Ewg in my opinion failed. What are we talking about with flash gordon, a preemptive strike, remember we said be careful. It sold off since. Europe is leading, we need to follow at some point. European financial, Deutsche Bank with record lows. Credit suisse. I think you have to stay away from all financials at this point. I dont want to oversimplify this. All the yield plays seem to be the way whats working. Everyone wants to bet against them. To the correlation, the only correlation that matters is one thats stable. All those correlations have been on one day and off next day. The only correlation to me is s p and oil. You follow those two. Those have been in lock step. I think you stay with yield. Dont make this more difficult than the. Are you long germany or en versus short s p. Yes, im long a lot, hedge against certain parts. Tactically ive added remn. Before yellin i added some. When i look at ewg i look at reversal, last week saw reversal on the tenyear, i think this is a trading opportunity. I think european stocks are so oversold this is, if anything, again weaker currency is helping these guys again. Were going to hear about that. Up next curious thing happen in energy space. Oil tumbling but a number of Energy Stocks rallying. Whats behind the move. Oracle higher after hours on earnings. A call well under way. Hear the latest headlines. Later the news of the day. Sumner red stone removing five of viacom directors, including dauman. Much more fast money after this. S from my chase ink card i bought all the fruit. Veggies. And herbs needed to create a popup pickyourown juice bar in the middle of the city, so now everyone knows. We have some of the freshest juice in town. See what the power of points can do for your business. Learn more at chase. Com ink see what the power of points can do for your business. Experience the thrill of the lexus is f sport. Because the ultimate expression of power, is control. This is the pursuit of perfection. No, youre not yogonna watch it tch it we cant let you download on the goooooo youll just have to miss it yeah, youll just have to miss it we cant let you download. Uh, no thanks. I have x1 from xfinity so. Dont fall for directv. Xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. I used to like that song. Welcome back to fast money. Interesting divergence, crude oil hitting a five week low. Take a look at big integrated oil stocks. Exxon, valero, chevron, all clinging to gain despite the steep decline in oil. Whats going on . Clinging to gains, a high at 52. Trading for quite sometime. Tim talking about being long, energy names with great Balance Sheets thats proven to be correct. My problem here and its been that way a lot. These are rich stocks at 80 oil. So i think they are extraordinarily rich stocks at 50. Exxon closed at 52 times forward earnings. I cant answer whats going on, why people are moving in. Exacerbated downside, last couple days selloff is nothing to beware, crude going higher on the equity side. I think its all about yield. I think if you look at chevron, you have a 4 yield exxon, same type of things valero, all yielders. If you look at ep space you dont get yielders there, they were all down today. To guys point of valuation everyone reaching for yields, they bloated that multiple on them. Relative valuation as guy was saying they are cheap, relative to themselves, you get a yield. Again, youre taking a view on oil. Weve seen rate counts increase. Were now through the bulk of the big part of the summer driving season runup and youre seeing oil down quite a bit. In my view you see oil back in the 80s trade in this very wide range, certainly back to 20. It can trade back. Large names will be impacted a lot less than those other names that are in different area. I think youre making a good point on the yield in those names. Again, that chase for yield, we did a whole show on that. Its the guys that to be opportunistic and have operational leverage to be able to be buying assets, there will be another fire sell. I dont think oil is going to 30. Todays close below 47. 35, 50day is a bit of a concern. A fantastic reversal and brent didnt. When i look at the entire oil space, i think oil services are the ones most interesting here. Again, if you hold this view that weve actually taken a lot of supply out of the market and youre going to see a case where a lot of guys need to if anything amp up cap ex, halliburton had a big pullback, if anything id be sizing up for that one. As we head to break, oracle, rallying after earnings, call under way. Well hear from both ceos on the quarter and competition. Im melissa lee and youre watching fast money cnbc first in business worldwide. Meantime, here is what else is coming up on fast. Volatility picking up but stocks may have just flashed a secret buy sign. Well tell you what it is. Plus redstone pushes viacom ceo philip Philippe Dauman. Hes back with a bolder call. Hell review it when fast money returns. Can a toothpaste do everything well . This clean was like pow. It felt like i had just gone to the dentist. My teeth are glowing. They are so white. 6x cleaning , 6x whiteninga in the certain spots that i get very sensitive. I really notice a difference. And at two weeks superior sensitivity relief to sensodyne i actually really like the two steps step 1 cleans and relieves sensitivity, step 2 whitens. Its the whole package. No ones done this. Crest healthy, beautiful smiles for life. Welcome back to fast money. Cnbc has the call under way. Josh. Well, melissa, on the call, beginning that call taking a bit of a victory lap. Lets listen to what she had to tell analysts. For most companies as their business grows, the growth rate goes down. In our case as the business grows, the growth rates are continuing to increase. In our fast business we reported 20 growth in fiscal year 2014. 34 in fiscal year 2015, and now 52 in fiscal year 2016. So in q 4 Software Business platform, 690 million, better than what the street expected. Also interesting to hear Larry Ellison talking about the companys infrastructure. There youre competing with amazon, microsoft. Ellison saying he believes oracle is highly competitive, lower cost, better liability. Clearly a shot at the bow at other rivals in the space. On the call, bring you guys more headlines as they come. Let us know, josh. Josh lipton from san francisco. Guy, whats your oracle. 14 times forward earnings. I dont think its particularly expensive. I think this is a good quarter margins improving. Get back to 45 level it come down from. Its got a couple of dollars, 8 to 10 . 1 1 2 dividend yield and growth. In this environment thats a name everybody will buy. 37 it bounced off of significantly. I usually dont buy after Earnings Release and a gap after hours but i think you could on this one. Is this oracle story or stocks in general. I think oracle story. Its been kind of a prove it to me again story. I think to the extent that these guys, i think, are making up for expectations that were overly lofty. Its a company that continues on every level. Everyone looking at cloud, obviously a transition story as tim said. Database being flat thats a positive. Cloud margins up, thats a positive. If you jump in you know my threeday rule, jump in, use todays low 38. 08 below moving ample. Up next, a story that continues to fascinate wall street and hollywood alike. Sumner redstone announcing five directors including none other than Philippe Dauman. Can he remain ceo. Tom freson back with Immediate Reaction to the news. Get this, an even bolder call to reveal right after this break. E working on a bust of reaction to the news. Get this, an even bolder call to reveal right after this break. A. Things really took off when i got my domain name headsofcheese. Com from godaddy and now theyre selling like hot cakes. Made of cheese. Got a crazy idea you think you can turn into a success . We know you can and weve got a domain for you. Go you. Godaddy. , the master of suspense and the macabre. I enjoy keeping people up at night. My Analysis Shows your stories are actually about human connection, even love. Great storytelling needs drama and empathy. My cognitive apis can help any business Better Connect with its audience. You should try writing a book. Find a remote hotel. Bring the family. I do not think that is a good idea. Bring th fadinner may i be excused . Get the new xfinity tv app and for the First Time Ever stream live tv, watch on demand, and download your dvr shows anywhere. Welcome back to fast money. Stocks staging huge reversal snapping fiveday losing streak. S p clog closing near the high, do you 93 points. Telecom, Consumer Staples all gaining 1 . Here is whats coming up second half of the show. Volatility surging to highest lel since february. Have no fear, that could be a major sign for stocks. Well explain. Plus smith wesson surging after hours. Well get the latest on the companys conference call. First official Sumner Redstone ousted ceo Philippe Dauman with four other Board Members. Jane wells with the latest on this developing story. Jane. Well, melissa, it may not quite be official, redstone through National Amusements removed dauman as chairman, did they . Could they soon fire him . Earlier today this is what the viacom board looked like before five members, including dauman was kicked off. Replaced by chairman of buzzfeed, judith, discovery, banking, car rentals, dream works. But ousted director fred salerno sent out a statement from viacom. Not on his own email, from viacom. Hold on, ouster is subject to legal approval in delaware court. He and other independent directors are filing a brief pushing the court to make a decision on this issue asap. Salerno said sadly its not clear mr. Redstone is being manipulated and used by his daughter. Basically saying this is a plot by shaarei redstone to take over the country. As for dauman no comment. Eight months ago he had his 10year contract extended through 2018. Sumner redstone called him an extraordinary ceo giving him 17 million in stock awards at the time. His total compensation over the last four years has been 4d 25 million. The more this showdown rachets up, the more investors improve. Shares up 14 in the last monday. By the way, there is a clause in daumans contract saying if he is fired early without good reason he can be compensated as much as three times his annual salary and bonus. So tens of millions of dollars. Melissa. Quite a parachute. Jane, thank you. Yesterday we spoke exclusively with voi com Coe Tom Frese Orrin who said a board shakeup was the key to saving viacom. He had choice words for the company and Philippe Dauman. They came in as a team and they can go out as a team if that happens. The board needs to be replaced, bring people from entertainment business, Popular Culture who can add something, understand the business maybe a bit more. Let welcome back our good friend tom freston. He joins us exclusively on fast line with latest news. Tom, welcome back to the show purchase hi. Is the writing at this point on the wall in terms of Philippe Daumans fate. It would appear so but you never know. Once again, this is going to be thrown back into the courts. So the soap opera seems to continue without any certainty. This would appear to be a good fresh step for viacom, a new viacom. You spoke to go ahead. I have no idea how this is going to be how this will translate in the courts. Have you spoken to shari redstone, theres an allegation by salerno shes used by redstone. I havent spoken to shari. I dont know anything about whats going on with shari and her dad. In a conversation a while ago she told me she was dealing with him. I didnt get specific information. I certainly got a sense he was aware of what was going on and not at the picture that had been painted by philippe. Who do you think is calling the shots in this instance . I really dont know. I would like to think its sumner. This would be in character, in line with the type of thing he would do, but i cant i dont even want to venture a guess who is calling the shots. Yesterday during our interview you said dauman was not a good listener. Hes not known to be a good listener. Do you think hes been tone deaf at this point in terms of what his role at the company should be . Do you think he should step down . Well, i think as i said yesterday, i didnt think he was optimal leader for viacom. If its time for him to tep down or not, this is not my decision. It appears this is still doing to be rather complicated. Can you see wall street is certainly voting that would be the case. I know that the employees would love to see some resolution in this. And i think are looking forward to really a new day beginning rather soon. You know, we had our reporter on outlining Philippe Daumans compensation package. The parachute he has, should he be termed without good cause, according to his contract, what do you think of the it is a jaw dropping number that dauman could walk away with, even if hes ousted. Im just wondering what your thoughts are on that . Well, yes, its a lot of money. It is a lot of money. Does he deserve it . Well, you know, one could argue its in his contract and it was approved by the board and the Compensation Committee there, so contractually he deserves it. Does he deserve it in light of the performance of the company . Many, many people would argue no. Thats probably one of the reasons were seeing the stock shoot up now with the rumors of his departure. You said this board housecleaning is a good first step toward what could be viacoms new future. Im just wondering if you think perhaps sumner should shoulder some blame. Why didnt he do this before even when he saw the company was in decline and philippe dome op was on the board and at the helm of the company. Thats a really good question and i do not have a clue as to why. I really do not. I havent really been in touch with sumner in any way in 10 years. Should he be blamed, though . Ultimately he could have done this before. Well, i mean, you know, to say he has to be blamed, theres an inference here theres a bad thing he has not done. I dont know that im ready to say that, no. I dont know that he needs to be blamed. I dont know who is at blame here. You say that sort of wistfully, tom. What do you mean . You know, just sort of maybe youre a little bit nostalgic about your days at viacom and too bad this company is in decline right now . I definitely feel that. Yeah. And i hate to be so obtuse here but i really dont have any ideas as to the inner machinations in the redstone families or board or top management levels. At this point lets say Philippe Dauman tomorrow and does look unlikely since the court challenge, suppose he steps down tomorrow, who do you think should pop in an replace him. I asked you yesterday, but maybe you have more thoughts and the path is more clear at this point. Thats the ultimate question. Im sure theres several people on the there who would be wonderful in that position. I dont pt to conjecture now who they might be and i havent really given it a lot of thought. Okay. Weve got new Board Members now. You were talking about repopulating the board yesterday with young people, people who have more of a digital connection. What do you make of the new board . Well, i do know ken fairly well. This is a guy with unbelievable digital chops. He cofounded Huffington Post with arianna huffington. Hes gone on to start all types of other ventures. Hes wellknown within that community. Hes a chairman of buzzfeed. Judith, she worked at mtv networks way back in the day, way back in the 80s. I remember the day she told me she was going to leave and go to discovery which was then pretty much a startup and she had a great career there and then shes been in government. Shes an excellent choice for board member for viacom. Shes steeped in this business, knows about it historically. Shes very able, very good thinker. I must say im not famine a great way with the other three people who were nominated. Lets say the board change is the only change that happens. Dauman remains as ceo. Are you more optimistic about viacoms future . Do you think the company can rechart its course . I think youve got in place and they agree philippe is the proper manager to go on and they are willing to kind of rethink where they are and make some different choices for the future, you know, that is their prerogative. Maybe that will work out just fine. Hey, tom, its brian kelly. Im curious, wall street was very excited about this today, stock up 4. 9 . It seems to me this is a company that has been in decline. P something is doing on there. As an investor i want to buy this stock. Is there anything i should be worried about . Is this too much of a soap opera for investors to get involved in at this point . Well, i mean, i think you dont know really how its going to end. You can make a good guess as to the probability. Im not welling to venture up or down, i really dont know how to answer that clearly and give stock guidance if thats what youre asking for. No, i guess im fine buying it. I guess the biggest risk i see, like you said, you dont know how its going to end. It seems as though theres change happening here regardless of what the outcome of the lawsuit is here, there is change happening. Is that a good thing for the company . Its a good thing for the company. The company has seen they are having levels of rebound, and its fair to assume with Clear Management direction with this reconstituted board thats going to certainly want to hit the ground running and take some quick action, there will be positive things happening for viacom and its future. And if its a company that has been in the doldrums, i think its quite likely that this might be they might be bottoming out and turning upwards. I asked you this yesterday, were going to ask you again because of the news that has happened since then, would you consider being ceo . Have you been asked by anybody pout that . Nobody has asked me in the last 24 hours or before that. No, i would not i definitely would not want to be interested. As i said yesterday, this is a great job. It a great company. It can be brought back. Someone can be in that position who could apply it with a lot more, you know, passion about it than i probably could at this stage. Tom, a pleasure speaking with you again. Thanks for your insights. Okay. Thank you all. Byebye. Tom freston, former viacom ceo. What do you think . Were talking about visibility into the future. Were also talking about business has been in decline since linear tv trends and what not. At what point is the valuation too compelling. This is a major discount, 9, 9. 5, puts the stock conservatively at 50. You can impute more activity. Its a case very interesting stock underperformed 20 year over year. A sector, theres a lot of questions in the sector. Therefore this is ultimately a relative value call if you believe new board equals change in direction. Is the first time youre starting to see money flow into this space, everything universally negative. It is yielder, i think this is worth, i dont want to call it a flyer. The upside is the risk at this point. Cbs up 50 . Maybe the band gets back together again. So much written about that. Cbs, Election Year cycle, thats probably a buy as well. Said this in february traded down to 32, every time we discussed the stock since, we brought up exactly what tim said. Valuation, its ridiculous. With some of the companies its trading half of what its peers do. Now trading nine times, cbs 13 or so times forward earnings. You have to say bk was getting around, dont wait to short things out to buy, buy now saying here is a valuable property, 160 countries, 700 million households, somebody has to figure it out. When they figure it out, going to trade at 13 times forward earnings. Up next one of the markets leading indicators could be flashing secret buy sign for stocks. Tell you what that is and how you can get in. Plus with markets around the world tumbling, where is a safe place to put your answer . We have answers when fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money, s p reversing big losses and finishing up on the day. That performance stands in stark contrast to whats happening around the world. Rick ross head of Technical Analysis at the smart board with some global perspective. Rich. Im going to show you how to make fast money using slow moving averages. Its been rough overseas as the chart of the dax will attest to. What are we looking at. Purple line, 200 week moving average. You tested it and held it today. Youre down 7 just this month alone. What do we see in japan . We know similar sort of disaster if you will. 29 decline off the top. Were down 10 for the month alone of june. Once again sitting right on that 200 week moving average as paul ryan said you cant make this stuff up, melissa. On the next page we see macroproxies for risk. These are flashing. What do we see. 200 week moving average. If we go back in time, 2007 here, bring it back to the yen, 2007, thats the last time we break below 200 week moving average. Clearly that was a good time to be a seller of just about everything. And we move to gold, another one of those safe havens. This is your 200 week moving average again. We see the rally into that 200 week. It holds its resistance to the dollar as guy attest to up around that 13, 1350, intraday reversal, responds to upside reversal in the market. So lets bring it back to the market gold and yen like graham and dodd for technician apply it to s p 500. Whats different about this chart . Here is that 200 week moving average. Nikkei down there, dax, yen is down there, yold ran into it. Here is s p. Still 2, 2 1 2 off alltime high, down 80 basis points for the month, still up 2 for the year. I still think going into next week, going into that brexit, you are set up for an upside move here out of this multitrading range. I think this is a bullish divergence for u. S. Market. Rich, youre saying, paul ryan, slow money, fast money. I said a number of times hes a zenith of guys and gals. Rich ross anyway, your question is with that said, if they do break to the downside on the 200 day, specifically the dax, what type of move then can we ant pate . Yeah, guy, look. Below that 200 week moving average, 32 decline, break below 200 week moving ample, call it 9300, 9400 on the dax. That calls into question entire multiyear bull run off the the bottom. From there sort of all bets are off. Youre now a better seller of rallies rather than a buyer of dips not that thats worked for years over in japan. All that said these are critical levels of support. To summit up, the price of safety soared, which makes it risky. While risk assets collapsed which makes it relatively safe or safer than it been over the past month. Rich, good to see you. Thank you. Bringing the a game. Practicing in the mirror. It paid off. I think thats off the cuff. Maybe the middle of the german thing, thats gold. Whats the other side to this. Youre on the other side. Listen, so the other side to this is that the u. S. Market has to come in to meet others. Those other markets are saying theres something going on in the Global Economy thats not right. The other side. The side you believe or no. Thats the side i believe. I could go on why i think the dollar goes higher. The other side is, 2 upside. The other side 2 downside. Gets us to that level 20, 25 or there abouts or right around 200 day. I see a binary situation, and you see 2 down, 2 up. Where do you stand on binary situation. I think were going lower. I think what you want to do, make the guys think u. S. Is outperforming and just a matter of time, i already said this tonight, i would be short the s p against long europe. If richs call comes to fruition, you want to be long europe period. I mean, this is where youre going to have coiled spring. If the u. S. Breaks to new highs, youre going to have a risk on rally and weve talked ad nauseam about the pent up moment up if, in fact, over a year of not making new 52week high, we do that, this market will fly. What i will say, i agree with tim in terms of if you want to buy something, buy europe, em, besides short s p. Up neck, a strange disconnect happening in the markets. Fear is rising but stocks are steady. Well explain why that could present an attractive buying opportunity. Smith wesson surging after reporting earnings. The latest for the quarter. Youre watching fast money cnbc first in business worldwide. Im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim. Td ameritrade. Dinner may i be excused . Get the new xfinity tv app and for the First Time Ever stream live tv, watch on demand, and download your dvr shows anywhere. With more. Upbeat results smith wesson fueled by strong consumer demands specifically in Firearm Division helped by a rise in background checks. Listen in. Just admit background check during fiscal quarter grew 12. 5 year over year reflecting increase consumer demand for firearms. In order to Grow Market Share in Firearm Division, the company will continue to focus on handgun, personal protection devices, long guns used tore hunting as well as protection rifle to gain market share. Expectation of gun roll riseses, forecasting shipments to jump no rules on the call. Looking at shares of smith wesson up 6 or 7 post this earnings, up 45 over the past one year, melissa. Thank you very much, seema mody. Unfortunately every time theres a tragic event there is anticipation of more gun control laws which drive up gun stock. Where are we now in terms of this. I would just say up 6 in after hours. They mentioned fbi background checks. Can you get that data ahead of time. Id be cautious on buying a stock up 7 on that because its already out there. Now to the socalled fear index surging to fourmonth high. What does this mean for stocks . Here with Historical Perspective on the vix. Sure. Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Did see a decline in vix. Taking a look back over three years, how do we see it done when vix was high. When vix above 20, bought s p over the next 30 days you would have ampled a return of 3. 1 . Youre best return over that period would have been 10. 9 and worst would have been down about 8 . Here is the interesting bit, you would have been profitable 80 of the time. Now, you buy s p when it is below 20, your 30day return is only 60 basis points. The best you would have done up 8. 2 over that timeframe and the worst you would have done is down 9. 7 . Why this disconnect . One of the reasons is generally speaking people get fearful when some of the bad news has already crept in. Take a look here. Looking at vix at 20 over here. Basically buying that dip, that dip, that dip, that dip, that dip. We havent dipped quite enough here. After brexit, i think you buy it. 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Because you cant build the business of tomorrow on the network of yesterday. eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. It takesbut stealing itd work to eaonly took a few days. Female announcer protect your money. Find out if youre dealing with a registered investment professional at investor. Gov. Before you invest, investor. Gov. Tim. Check out reverse on diageo. Oversold uk, over sold europe. Thats a very interesting chart to me. Great company. 386. Dupont, in and out of the name. Its reacting well technically. Play it from the long side. Ill probably get back in in the next couple days. Bk. Buy viacom, 3. 5 dividend yield uncorrelated to the sfm because of whats going on and change appears to be going on. Shadowing hashtag molson comes out. See you my mission is simple. To make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica. Other people want to make friends. I want to make you money. My job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. Today we saw a tremendous emotional tugofwar between calmness over possible british