Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20160224

As much the dow was down 166 points and it bounced off the levels and finished up. Should you buy this bounce, tim . What do you say . If you are short you should be concerned. I think the negative sentiment out there, first of all, still high enough where i think you can see enough of a riff. Saudis oil minister is out there on the tape saying, first of all, we actually want to destroy all the highcost producers. They want to keep largely the same policy but hes also said we do want to freeze production. You have different players saying Different Things and oil is the one that i think calls for todays move. The fact that its been holding on to this 50day moving average, actually kissed it and is now holding it and oil is saying maybe a lot of fear in the market. Stable fuel equals a stable stock market or does that mean higher stocks . I think it means higher stocks. Okay. If crude does stabilize not basically neutral. In fact it fosters the ability for stocks to move higher. I think thats what people are waiting on because crude signifies to the marketplace Global Growth or lack thereof, so as tim pointed out the 30 level, if that level holds, youre going to see a lot of new buyers coming into the marketplace. I think its a big if. I dont think it holds, but i think it could play out in the next couple of weeks, not the next couple of days. Financials still closed the day in the red. I mean, it reversed. Jpmorgan was up tiny. But the Financial Sector finished lower slightly. I thought it was so overblown yesterday so the fact that it came back today was good. I think if the market opened a little bit longer they would have done better. To me, i didnt love the economic data, so its only one point in a mosaic. Well have to see if more comes of it, but i didnt love that. In terms of the pmis and the home sales. The ism was terrible. That i didnt love. Services. And if we are the growth engine, which we are, you know, i didnt love that. Right. Yeah. Id agree and tim is exactly right. If you look at oil and it flips 5 , down 2 and all of a sudden shift up to the upside in royal, and you look at the energy names, material names, everything was down 3 . You look at all the etfs related to the energy space and they were getting smacked and once again is this healthy . I would say no. I dont know why theres anything healthy about this rally whatsoever. The financials are still lagging, the lager on the way down, down 2 and came all the way back to finish flat. Most Everything Else moved into the positive and to the upside. Smallcap stocks which have been destroyed much more than bigcap stocks and i would make an argument because of credit, make an argument because of oil. The russel has been outperforming the s p in the last three or four days n. Had a meaningful way weve taken over this 35 on brent, who cares about wti, my view, but how can you not say that the market hasnt had a significant change in character . Again, things that were being sold on days like today actually were rallying and outperforming. That to me is very encouraging. Ill tell you why im not encouraged. I think financials have to participate. We dont get financials participating we have a real problem, tim. What was really leading us to the downside today . If oil doesnt flip, then where are we at the end of the day . Oil did flip. But look. It was all based 307b this huge move we get out of the xle, the huge move we get out of the material space. Everything that was so hated, and by the way, they are buying stuff thats basically shorted. Yeah. Are they are they rallying really, or are they Short Covering because they are panicked a little bit and feel like they have to get down and get themselves back in . What do we all do today . If anything, ive been buying puts into some of this rally. Ive been selling a little bit of emerging exposure which i think is rangebound. Youre buying puts . So you sound like youre talking my book. I have a portfolio i have to hold and a portfolio im trying to hedge and ultimately banks are in a place where their earnings arent that good. I wouldnt be buying banks. Its earnings. What are you buying . Materials name. Own a name like turnium, a steel company, stock is up 15 today because in fact there are things that are turning in the steel industry, not for alltime great moments, but, again, things that were oversold and cheap relative to their history. Those are companies i want to own. What were you doing today, karen . Not a lot. You know, the things i look at, retail. I wouldnt be a buyer here. They are up a lot. Actually we did. We sold a little bit of coors calls against our position, so thats a little bit out of the range. The financials are interesting to me, but ive been long them and it hasnt worked for a while and i thought yesterday was ridiculous. Okay. When you look. Im not buying anything new. Selling anything . Not selling anything either. Equity guys hate talking about the g20 because i guess weve not smart enough to understand what the heck will happen at the g20, if anything. Speak for yourself. Guys dont want to make up as if we know whats going on with the g20. If you look at china, increasing the budget deficit, another headline you and i talked about off air. Yeah. That could be a reason why guys are getting ahead of this. Maybe thats a riskon trade, but it definitely appears to me to your point guys that are covering, guys that are placing bets in the energy space. I dont think the tenyear is very convincing that is a riskon trade, so i think this seems very temporary to me, and i dont think that these gains are going to hold. Stocks may have staged a comeback for today, but long term the charts are mimicking a pattern thats much more disturbing, or so says our next guest. Tom demark is the ceo of demark analytics. Great to have you on the program. Great to be with you. Youve got three charts to walk us through. Why dont you kick it off with the first one. The first chart shows the price activity of the Dow Jones Industrial average into the bottom in the spring of 1980, and the similarity between the current market and what occurred in 1980, that was the bunker hunt low, remember that period very well. Everyone thought that the exchanges were going to close permanent at that time. The pessimism was so thick at the market. We knew it had to bottom at that time. Otherwise the the prospects wouldnt look good for the economy or politically. Right. Thats the first chart. The second chart is see, what were trying to do is compare the current market with prior periods, and what we did, we identified three. This is months ago. We came up with three comparisons that were pretty pretty closely correlated. The second one is the 2007 and 2008 decline. We were able to place this almost step by step percentagewise throughout the entire decline. People who followed us at that time did remark how well it was correlated. The third chart, which is the most important, thats whats influenced me just recently. That particular chart weve weve followed and were looking at it now. Ive compared the current market with what occurred through the period of august 9 through october 3rd of 2011, and they look similar. Weve got these marked with 1s and 2s and abcs, but they do they do relate to successive or conseccive upanddown closes. This has influenced me like i said despite the fact that the Chinese Markets on the days that we identified the bottoms and we identified the january 20th and the february 11th low with an intervening high on february 1st. We were able to get the exact highs and lows hand were really going against what some of our work is telling us. 90 of our indicators have identified the low as february 11, but there are 10 of the indicators are still saying we have to go down one more time. Weve got crude oil when we were on the air february 10th, we identified that as the bottom and the market did rally. We ultimately should see that. Well see a test that have low. Intraday well go believe the february 11th low and at that time we thought it was up coming this week possibly. We thought the stock market could unravel and we could see a sharp decline. We still think were going to see it. Yesterday we got a price flip downside but it was just isolated to the s p average. The broad indices did not have that same price flip and we expect them to top in two days so we want to reassess everything on friday, and we think the market could stilt get hit. Friday is going to be a critical day. Lets say in the worst Case Scenario or friday, tom, whats the downside in your view . The downside weve had for some weeks. Its been 1783, 1790, and in that area. That influenced us at the low when we turned positive on february 11, we said we didnt quite hit the price objective. Normally our model, timing mold, is consistent with the price objective. It wasnt at that time, and thats what also influenced us to think that were going to see one more decline. I think today was just an overreaction. There was some news that we predicted the market would decline monday and the top would be made monday, and it just hasnt unfolded the way we expected. Right. Weve declined the 1880 and 80 and that was the downside projection for the rally and thats what we saw today. I think well see the blond indices, the iwm and the small cap and that shut set up everything for one more attempt to break and hopefully we do break. Tom, great to have you on the show. Thank you. Tom demark, demark analytics. Tom is a market timer and largely his timing has been impeccable, called the bottom the top of the China Movement and the bottom of the China Movement and hes saying we can get one significant leg lower. What is significant about that not that we get there, but theres a lot of people calling for this is 2008. Markets are broken and they will break significantly lower. I think people would breathe a sigh of relief to say 1790 is our floor, especially with a lot of stocks that i think probably already tested the lows that you would see there. Again, i think whats interesting about demarks work he talks about exhaustion points and markets. Lets face it. Markets have gotten so overdone, i still think, as i said earlier at the top of the show, that we have a case where markets are still leaning to being oversold, too much cash on the sidelines, so you get that washout that hes talking about. Interesting time. I mean, 1790, maybe some people will breathe a sigh of relief but that will still be painful on the road down to 1793. In a Market Scenario that tom is laying out to 1739, what are the sectors and the kinds of stocks that will feel the most pain . Energy material names will absolutely get slaughtered to the downside if thats the case. The other thing would i point out about this movement. Think about the range that weve been in. Cant seem to be able to break above the 19. 25. The one positive i did see was volatility index, the fact that it pulled underneath and stayed underneath the 50day and started to approach 2,900day moving average. Thats pretty significant because with all of what we have going on, the news stories that everybody here, even brought up the g20, here we are and volatility is down 25 over the last week and a half. Thats significant. For now. Its lurking its head. A shocking new statistic on instagram could change the Way Investors value facebook. Well tell you about it and what it means for the stock. A new report is raisings fresh concerns about banks and the exposure to the oil names. The names and analysts behind the report are next. Looking to beat the market, a simple strategy has some traders doing just that and going hog wild in the process. Well tell you what it is and how it can profit when fast money returns. The kitchen. Thats home. I know thats like my grandma cooked, my mom cooked. I cook. Chocolate bread pudding, and souffles, and. Banana bread. I make a lot of banana bread because the baby likes bananas. So, we always have bananas in the house. laughs whatever home means to you, well help you find it. Zillow. Man 1 i came as fast as i man 2 this isnt public yet. Man 1 what isnt . Man 2 weve been attacked. Man 1 the network . Man 2 shhhh. Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. Welcome back to fast money. Take a look at the major author stocks kicking off our top trades, fiat chrysler, General Motors and ford all down. Its a poor time to own stocks as u. S. Volumes have peaked and get this, not just the downgrades weighing heavily and now some of the underlying auto loans are deteriorating and delinquencies on subprime lows are at the highest level since 2010. You asked what does that mean in terms of the credit impact. Yeah. People talk about the auto cycle, expecting margins to go down dramatically. I think they think the auto cycle stole and putting it on the hands of less than credit worthy borrowers and where are we with subprime so less than 620 credit score in the borrowing hand in the last two quarters, back to where we were in 2006 and a lot of people would say its the peak of the insanity with this country with mortgages and auto loans, et cetera, et cetera. Ultimately are autos going to live through the cycle . I think they will. I think they will look very interesting and ive been saying that on 20 . Margins are holding up, and i have to say its disappointing to me. Is it that the automakers lend them out . Are they overexposed and sold too many cars and thats robbing from future sales . Im not worried about a gmac because it doesnt exist in the same place. Im worried about the sales and the companies. Look at the auto stocks. Right. So one thing about yesterday, jpmorgan the oil stuff was crazy, but there was one page that i wasnt so psyched about is the auto loan book which isnt that big but one of the categories that i didnt really love was loan to value of greater than 120 . I dont love that for obvious reasons. Now, the best factor is people being employed. Sure. You can pay your auto loan. The credit experience has been excellence. Ttop, hair waving in the back. Id be more concerned though. Does this make you concerned about jpmorgan or other things that may have more exposure . Who has the posh youre where do you look, gmc which is ally, they have had a much bigger book of auto loans than jpmorgan, so that would be a place, if i wanted to make that bet, allied would be the way to go. Next up, a milestone for facebooks instagram. The photosharing app announcing it has 200,000 monthly active users up from hundreds in june. Notably ahead of twitters 130,000 advertisers this comes as facebook announced its upgrading its like button with reaction and an emoji like toole that allows them to put out knife now expressions, love, haha, wow and angry. In addition to the original like, given facebooks dominance in social communication, could it make the case that facebooks stock is undervalued . Pete . Look at the multiple that these guys trade the but look at all the investments zuckerberg has made and hes done an outstanding job. The navigation of this Company Since the ipo. Early on there were problems and then they got moving into mobile and the acquisitions began. They paid 1 billion for instagram and now this has already surpassed twitter, as you mentioned, 200,000. Video ads, thats where the premium prices are, and thats where they are absolutely killing it right now on facebook, so if youre willing to be very patient with this stock, i think in the long term it actually probably is cheap at these levels but they dont have any room to stumble depending on what we see out there that could cause them to stumble. In the last Conference Call 98 of the top 100 advertisers took out ads. Benefitting from the platform and twitter began selling ads five years ago and they have a fraction of the number of advertisers that facebook has, that instagram has. Usp, a couple minutes ago, what would sell off the most, what would get hit the most and he said energy. Energy is taking the brunt of the stock already. If the market sells off, its up 2 or so year to date, all the others have gotten hit, netflix, amazon. Does that make you not want to be in nook . For the length of the time frame, its critical. Just a tradeable event because you said what are you buying and what are you adding to . Im long bank america. Im long disney. Im long apple. Those are three big positions for me, show in a time period, i would love to add facebook. Right now when im nervous that the market is youre not adding it. Sell 100 handles, im going to wait. Whats interesting to me though is the three companies you just named are the ones that have done, you know, been the most hit and the highest, i would say downside highest momentum where facebook was very resilient which you pointed out through what i thought was absurd and outofproportion disreality on where markets were and facebook calling in there because it was very hard to blow holes in the valuation relative to their growth. All right. And they put up a monster quarter, i mean, honestly. And he deserves credit for those acquisitions. They deserve not to be penalized. Is my life down to six emojis . Thats concerning for me. He hates. You wow. Pete, hahas. Still ahead, two very different names, imax tanking on earnings and salesforce surge after hours. The latest from both those Conference Calls when fast money returns. Im melissa lee on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Heres what else is coming up. He hates the cans. Stay away from the cans. Thats what the banks are saying about the oil and if you think your bank is immune from the swooning oil prices. Think again. Shocking exposure in the names you know. Plus, want to know how to beat the market this year . Well, heres a hint. Youre a hog or a cattle. Well tell you about the meat and potato strategy that is crushing the market this year when fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money. It has been a very tough year for the big banks as investors continue to worry about their exposure to the collapse in crude prices. Take a look at these numbers courtesy of gerard cass can i of rbc showing the billions in exposure that jpmorgan, bank of america, citi and wells all have to the energyrelated investments. Could this mean that oil is becoming the new subprime for the banks . Gerard joins us on the fast line. Thanks for joining us and providing us these numbers. Lets take this to the worst Case Scenario saying every penny of enloan that these banks held went bad, what is the impact . We think the imapact is very manageable because the exposure to the loan portfolios and capital is very manageable. This is way different, of course, than the subprime exposure. One way of putting it into perspective. As you know, from the data. The industry has right now total exposure from the top 20 banks of about 245 billion in exposure. The outstandings are just over 100 billion. To put this in perspective from the First Quarter of 053to the First Quarter of 01 we originated in this country 3 trillion of subprime loans so this is no idea as catastrophic as during the home crisis. Why are investors punishing these stocks . They seem to be trading just beyond fear of no growth in the united states. I think youre right, and todays action was interesting. They sold off hard this morning with some of the stories about jpmorgans oil came out, you know, yesterday, and then talked about it with the other banks. The oil exposure, but i think the biggisher usual is the fact that the Federal Reserve may not be raising shortterm Interest Rates this year. In december when they raised rates, their forecast called for four more rate increases this year. The fed if you had futures today says there arent any more coming so i think that singlehandedly has been the biggest contributor why the stocks have sold off since the first of the year. Im sure you field a lot of calls from clients, from investors out there, gerard. Im curious. What sort of number of calls do you get regarding potential Energy Exposure versus concerns that that the curve is going to stay played . Its interesting. Were getting more calls and today especially on the Energy Exposure because its so fresh in everyones mind about what happens during the downturn, the financial cries and the losses the banks took on the loan portfolios, but when we frame it out and compare the Energy Exposure to what happened in the 1980s, again, the 80s, the banks were much more exposed, particularly the texas banks, compared to today, the investors understand that its not that bad, and i think, again, you saw that in the price action today, sold off hard and then and then the declines by the end of the day were much smaller for the big banks than at the beginning of the day. Gerard, thanks a lot for phoning in. Appreciate it. Youre welcome. Gerard cassidy of rbc. We had gerard walk through the worst Case Scenario and asking about the calls to get a sense of reality versus perception because often perception will hijack the trade and thats what weve seen. He broke it out to show how relatively minimal they are, but lets just go through the math of it. Lets say jpmorgan gets to that bad Case Scenario of an additional 1. 5 billion. Add that in, 2 billion in total. Thats a pretax number. That gets you to 30 cents a share, of a onetime charge. Not like the earnings will always have that 2 billion hit every year so 30 cents a share in that that very bad Case Scenario. I mean, the reaction is just crazy. Karen has been pretty consistent. I think thats lunacy to compare what banks are going through to 2008 and i feel like we do this all the time. First of all, the esoteric nature of the mortgagebacked securities, the lack of liquidity and the leverage inherent in these securities is so different and the counterparty risks from a citi to a Deutsche Bank to whoever back in that day was very, very different. Also, the sell side doesnt have the risk. The buy sides got the risk this time around. All the guys that hold half the loans are people that are selling everybody on the new frontier. Would you buy the banks here . I would not buy the banks. Its not 2008, but its the whole point. People are basing their opinion on buying or selling it. I own bank of america, but people are basing their buying or selling on it whether this is its true. When banks are in a different earnings environment. I agree. I think i think i think that most people, i want to give everybody the benefit of the doubt. Most people are rational and understand the case. They were burned. I disagree. I think they think in the back of their head, lets say, you know, they see the case, think in the back of their head about 2008 and think about the unknowns and how nobody thought that citi should go to 2 a share and it did. They were burned. It looks entirely different. Im not making the case that its subprime. Investors have been burned really badly because they didnt understand, and i dont think they understand now. Cant u. N. That underwriting is completely different with dodd frank, with everything thats deleveraging thats taken place in the last seven years it can never be that way, but the problem is investors think there might be something that were all missing again. Its a perception thing. Heres where the problem real lives. I think its the european banks and less about oil. I think its far more about the european banks and everybody looks at the Deutsche Banks of the world and their concern level is rising, and i think also everybody is looking at the rates. Jonathan gollub was on saying we expect three for the firm and he expects two rate hikes and gerard doesnt think well have any. Where will the banks be making the money . Thats one of the concerns but europe is the real thing, much more so oil. Deutsche bank goes down 50 over the last 12 months but why not here . We have direct correlation, there is a correlation. Global concern, all interconnectled, all the banks. Right. But i think that it is a totally different environment, but by their very nature banks are levered institutions. Thats the business model. How much of an earnings hit or a onetime hit would that be because theres really de minimis to say, you know what, ive got to just sell. Two of the biggest banks in europe, three report in the last couple of weeks which include ubs, hsbc and Deutsche Bank. Ubs and hsbc their Balance Sheets got better, they went up 40, 45 bips in terms of their Balance Sheets and tier one capital. About earnings power. These are state banks. Deutsche bank gets funded by deposits in germany and by the bundes bank. Are you long any of the banks . Im long bank of america. European banks are going out of business but thats not happening. All right. Coming up, the hottest part of the trade this year and now one trader is making a very bullish bet that one area of the gold complex is about to hit new heights and putting your money where your mutt is. One stock getting crushed and trade, are digging into it. What that is and how you can profit when fast money returns. Welcome back. Heres whats come up in the second half of fast money. The rally that just wont group quit. The group of stocks that are on the tear and what our traders think it means for the market. Imax and salesnorse moving in opposite direction. Well hear from both ceos later this hour on the Conference Call. Amid all the volatility in the market theres one group of stocks thats gone hog wild. Breaking it down is a man who has been known to go a little wild himself, the one and only dom chu. Why. I dont think i really think im a wild and crazy kind of guy, melissa. Oh, come on, dom. I am just one wild and crazy kind of guy, maybe, and i do like to keep an eye, like you said, on whats happening with the action. So far this year some of the best trades have come from food. Specifically were referring to livestock. Lets talk a little pork first of all. Lean hogs, thats, those futures contracts, you can see it right there, upabout 19 on a yeartodate basis. Its been a great winning trade so far in 2016, but some of the winners havent been all livestock in terms of pork. Its been chicken prices. Been on a slight medium term downtrend heading into this year and then there are stocks that have exposure to some of the commodities like chicken or pork or other Meat Products here and there arent that many pure play products here on the Meat Processing and packaging side of things and one of the plays has been processing foods and Meat Processing names. You look at hormel which is behind brands like spam, dinty moore beef stew and got the Applegate Farms or organic sausage type of stuff. Shares have gained 10 year to date and hit a record high and a big, big uptrend for those guys recently and then theres tyson food hit a record high and in todays trading its up 22 year to date. Brands like hillshire farms, jimmy dean sausage and those are up big as well and campbells soup is up 15 year to date and also hit a record high just a couple of days ago. Lean hogs, yes, have been a winning trade and so have some of americas big food companies, melissa. I guess certain rising input costs arent as big of a concern for some investors as of yet, but, still, food, packaged food, even lean hogs, some of the big win is trades, melissa, so far in 2016 even though i may not be a wild and crazy guy. Thanks, dom. You got in. Still love you, no matter what. I know, thanks. Dom, first of all, dont let him kid you, a wild and crazy guy. Having said that, the food stocks that were talking about look really expensive. If you look at tyson, its absurd the multiple youre paying for this company. Granted, yes, theres been synergies where mergers and also the cost of bulks and grains have pushed up the margins for these guys. Remember what these guys do, only so much in the business and only comes back to valuation. These are defensive trades. They got to eat, right. Got to eat something. No doubt about it. To tims point. Looking at hormel trading 30 times. That seems pretty incredible, right . They have delivered and done an outstanding job, no doubt about that, but at 31 times i would think im not show sure i would jump in this name. I would look at kraft heinz, for instance, if i was staying in the food space. Because buffet put these guys together essentially and you see some of the synergies that will come about in the next couple of quarters, not right now but off 10 from the highs and this is a name that can go higher. Would you nibble on any of these . Nobody else had done it. Come on, i kind of like the restaurant space even though higher costs arent good for them, but they do get a huge benefit from lower gas prices for the consumer, so i i think theres some value there. Hormel is up 10 . It has the lowest and steadiest chart. Tyson is up 22 . Way too spiky for me. Campbells is up 15 and also spiky. If youre going to buy one, go with the slow and steady and the market is telling you something. They are safety plays and probably can continue to be safety plays and probably can continue to get money. Youre not in hormel . Not sexy enough for me. The Southern Company is . Moving on. Still ahead. Right up there. Go ahead. If the economy is in trouble what are we listening to . I have no idea. If the economy is in trouble, you know theres a rally in the retail stocks. Whats going on here. Still names worth buying and disney stocks have not benefited from the force and well hear from the imax ceo and the real effects right after the break. Much more fast money still ahead. Smart devices are up. Cloud is up. Analytics is up. Seems like everything is up except your budget. Introducing comcast Business Enterprise solutions. With a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need without the high cost. Because you cant build the business of tomorrow on the network of yesterday. Welcome back to fast money. Got some big earnings movers after hours. Seema mody and dom chu are covering and lets kick it off with seema on imax. Reporter while earnings disappoint it had did raise its full years installation guidance as they continue to benefit from more bigbudget blockbusters and movie franchises releasing sequels, one of which is star wars. Listen in. Imax alone accounted for approximately onethird of star wars advance ticket sales in north america, a staggering result, and we couldnt be more pleased that our exhibitor partners were able to benefit from the strong attendance we generated and the fees they collected for our robust Online Ticket sales performances. Imax says with so much major movie franchises releasing important sequels in 2016 and 2017 its well positioned for success in the years ahead. In fact, on the call imax says its First Quarter is already off to a great start between star wars, motion in china kung fu panda 3 and dead pool which has broken numerous records this month alone and the company bullish on china. They now expect to see accelerated installations in the china region. Now lets send it over to dom chu. Seema, as much as yours is about the negative performance in the after hours, mine is more of a positive story here, seema, so lets take a look at the salesforce shares climbing in the after hours up 9 after this closing bell. 2 million shares have traded so far. Ceo mark benioff always a colorful character stressed the Fourth Quarter is with a the best the company has ever seen. Hes been a little bit dramatic but thats how he feels about the company. They have had the best quarter they have ever had an benioff saying they never expect every single product group, gearingsy, sector to exceed the companys own expectations and thats what happened in this past quarter. He says its creating, more, quote, phenomenal momentum and, of course, with the cloud being so important to the company heres what mark benover told our own mad moneys jim cramer in an exclusive interview coming up about some of the important cloud services, the Cloud Business model and maybe some of the cloud imposters that are out there. Take a listen. Theres many false clouds out there, and i think you and i know that a real Cloud Company is a company that has a deferred revenue model, that has a subscription service, thats delivered in multitendency and has a customer model built on customer success, and, look, these companies are not focussed in that model and thats why they are not able to have the results that we see today. A lot more with mark cramer with cramer next hour, mad money, jim cramer and mark benioff with more on that discussion on Cloud Computing and what it means for salesforce. Com. Back over to you guys. Thanks a lot. Dom. Lets start off with salesforce. Com. This is interesting. Up 9 and the context for year to date its down 20 . Really been punished as one of the stocks, momentum stocks taken down. Thats exactly right. When you look at what this thing trades at, it looks like a stock thats fairly expensive and do they have enough growth . Certainly they they proved they did the past quarter and the guidance is extremely strong as well. Can they get the 10 billion revenue mark and thats still out in the future and certainly when you look at this coming year, their numbers are very, very high. This is one. Stocks. Steve talked about the stocks. If you think this market is going down, whoever they are out there, then this stock is one i want to sale because the 63 times multiple doesnt make it. One you would buy now . No. Hang on. In the space an s. A. P. Or oracle have held in a lot better lately than a crm, so when you said dividend. Exactly. Would you buy it . I would lean towards those because they have the legacy business. When he was talking about fake cloud, real cloud. Right. Those players are real, s. A. P. And oracle. Lets talk imax here. Again, those shares are lower in the afterhours session. Interesting, yet another part of the star wars phenomenon thats on l brands. Shares down 2. 5 . Companys guidance for the First Quarter and full year came in below expectations. The company mentioning continued pressure from 4x Exchange Rates and stocks off of its lows. Switched over to retailer, restoration hardware, plunging after the retailer warned that fourthquarter earnings would miss estimates. Earlier we reported an estimate mistakenly too low. The expected miss is due in part to shipping delays, weak performance and markets affected by energy and oil and higher discount considering but the retailer didnt stop there. Also blamed the stock market saying increased volatility in the exstock market, especially the extreme conditions in january which is historically our biggest month of the quarter for furniture sales contributed to our performance. You can see the stock down 19. 5 after hours. Melissa . Thank you very much, seema mody. Thats interesting, blaming the stock market for a blip in sales. Well, yeah, i dont know how you connect them. Restoration hardware is a crowded trade and theres a handful of these companies, including in home depot and lowes part of this housing resurrection story. Restoration hardware obviously a very different story. This has been at the bott tom of rsis and momentum selling. Crowded trades and thats what they are talking about. Caught in this vortex. I dont feel bad for them. The reality is the numbers arent good and the valuation isnt supported but at this point the stock is overdone. When youre saying crowded. The Short Interest is 25 which is pretty high. Im surprised by that. Youre saying crowded from the long side as well . Yeah, yeah, i mean, it was. There was a lot of forced selling and the street has gone the other way on it, too. Looking at l brands. How are you looking at it, pete . I think it looks pretty good. Shaping up well. Look she was just talking about how it was down a couple of percent. As she was speaking, started moving back to the upside. Expected tomorrow morning waking up to see the stock higher. Look at the numbers in a record quarter, huge year and the only negative that i heard on that entire thing was currency headwinds, if thats the biggest problem l brands goes higher. You have to play in retailer, im in aeo and deckers and ive taken my fair share of pain there, but if youre going to buy retail i think you go with whats proven to work and go totally a different space and go home depot. Home depot used to be that stallion in the retail space and now its starting to get it back and now its sold off and starting to get a lot of buyers coming back. Stallion means more solid performer last year. Thats why shes the den mother. Oh, my gosh. What a job i have. Lets switch gears here hopefully. Gold prices rose again today setting off a flurry of bullish activity in one group of stocks. Mike . Yeah. It was in gdxj, the etf that tracks the junior gold miners. This traded more than two times its average daily options volume. Most of that relatively short dated and march options, and one of the areas we saw a lot of opening activity was the march 27 1 2 calls buyers that are betting that the rally in gold and the gold miners could continue and that it could be up another 10 in just the next three weeks and another big trade, we also saw in the space, 2427 strangle. Thats a best that volatility in general in gold and the miners which right now is in the 90th percentile is likely to continue for at least another month. We are ari walled on saying he thinks the gold trade in gold in the gdx, didnt address the gdxj specifically but they would go higher. What do you think . What do you think the dollar is going to do . If you think the dollar is stalled out, what were talking about with oil in terms of supply disruption and lack of investment. These guys have been going through this for four years. A lot of gold companies, i think production will start to crimp and this is interesting. What do you think . Gdx outperforms by 21 and ive said that before. Gdx, usually outperforms all of them. A bit of a stallion. Stallion as well. 55 . Might be a gelding if its underperforming. Not like a my little bone. Im going to force right through this. If you want to stay long gold play on gdx. I dare somebody to use my little pony. Coming up next, the final trade. Im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim. Td ameritrade. Finally fast but not least move over sky night. This is the latest version of apples new atlas robot and its smarter than ever. He can stroll in the woods and pick up boxes and if you knock him over he gets right back up. No word on when he gets back in time. Why was he in the woods, what was he doing . A little weird. I dont see robotic animals. No idea. Final trade time. Tim . Awz, brazil downgraded today, who cares. The outperformers were utilities early on in the day, if you believe the markets are going to sell off i do, utilities, safety play, slu. No my little bone . Karen . Yeah. I talked about jpmorgan being so overdone yesterday. I think you can go with that if you really are afraid of an absolute armageddon in financial stocks do it through calls and go out a couple months, already reported earnings, jpmorgan, jamie dimon also. Pete . Looking at retail, target. Brian cornell, this company, minneapolisbased, absolutely crushing it. They crushed it once again. Buyers in there today. I think its going higher. Giddyup to my mission is simple. To make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere. I promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica. Other people want to make friends. Im just trying to save you some money. My job isnt just to entertain but to educate and teach you. And put it in perspective. Call me at 1800743cnbc. Or tweet me jimcramer. On a good day for the averages, i look at the other side of the trade. In fact, i think this might be the perfect time to discuss a dire issue facing the market. Everywhere i go, i hear the