good. fairly optimistic at this point. a 13% gain expected for the first quarter alone, but we ended up having it a back end loaded year. >> back to the next hour. see you next week. >> have a great weekend. >> happy st. paddy's day. >> maria bartiromo there. >> yes, exactly. >> off she goes. what are you watching for now. what's the next moment that could move this market, whether it's an economic report, a fed move? well, i think it's the s&p. i think once we break that 1565, i think we're going to see this go even higher. i think the feds, as long as -- as i've been saying, as long as they keep infusing this market with $85 billion a month, it has to go higher. >> we'll see what happens here. gentleman, thank you both. >> safe weekend. >> you too, as well. what we're going to be watching right now is a lot of running around. you're going to see still, which is unusual for this time of day, a lot of crowds around the stations, because of these so-called rebalancing, as they buy and sell stocks to rebalance portfolios in the index and also the expiration of options and futures contracts. what you'll get is a huge upswell of volume here as we go to the close. the question is, do we get a new record? doesn't look like. the streak is over on the ives of march. we should have warned the market ahead of time. here's the second hour of the "closing bell." have yourself a good weekend. >> and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. it was fun while it lasted. the dow snapping a ten-day winning streak today, also it's run of eight consecutive all-time highs will not be extended. of course, there's next week. take a look at how the day is finishing the day with major averages on the downside after this huge historic week. the dow jones industrial ar average, down about 27 points, 14,512. we had a rebalancing at the close as well as an expiration, more than 1 billion shares, 1.1 billion trade here. at the big board alone, s&p 500 flat on the session, close but no cigar. on the nasdaq composite, also under pressure, to the tune of about ten points. the historic streak has ended, but what about the bull run? joining me right now to talk about more about it is dave zera. jim dunigan, and michael james, weather securities, plus cnbc contributor, stephanie link. good to have everybody on. the program. thank you so much for joining us. let me kick it off with you. how do you want to invest, knowing where we've been this week and going into the rest of the year. >> well, when money supply's growing at over 6% a year, the s&p tends to average about 11%. when it's growing at 8% or more, it tends to average about 14%. and it's growing at 7.7%. so that would suggest there's more legs left in this market. it would suggest we would have pretty good double-digit returns. >> and i have to believe that this was a victory, even though we're ending down today. you're talking 25 points. >> but also, there's other areas of the market that are pretty undervalued and that are attractive. emerging markets, equities are traded like 12 bes, and historically, you get really nice returns. buy mortgages right now at 6% yields, not a lot of interest rate risk. so there are still attractive areas of the market. >> still want to look for that growth story. whether it's in the u.s., emerging markets, still a place to see some gains there. jim dunigan, jump in here. hold up are you investing today? >> well, i think the same case, maria, that the path of least resistance, at least, it seems, for the market to be up. i'm just as happy for this streak to be over. more of a distraction, but i think earnings continued to support the story and we have massive monetary accommodation, which will continue to fuel that move to risk assets for investors over time. so if we consolidate, it will likely be from higher levels. >> how long does that accommodation last? when would you expect the federal reserve to start winding qe back? >> well, they have been pretty specific to say 6.5% unemployment, so i think we're well into the latter part of this year, before we start to see some pullback. >> and stephanie, any catalyst on the horizon, you're expecting in terms of this market? >> yeah, actually, next week is going to be very interesting. because we get earnings from federal express. we also get earnings from nike and from oracle. these companies do a fair amount of business outside of the u.s. so we want to see what they have to say about that, right? and also, about the consumer and about businesses and business investment. so i think those are three very big data points next week to keep an eye out. and i would just point out, in just in terms of the markets today, i was very encouraged to see the financials lead. there were very high expectations for these stress tests, and many of these companies more than delivered, and this is very important. it's been many years since these companies have had competitive yields, and they now have competitive yields. so i think that this group continues to work. >> yeah, and the earnings story is important. i'm glad you mentioned that. michael james, what are you seeing in terms of trading right now? where is the flow? >> right now you're seeing -- >> when you look at what's been going on for the last couple of weeks, it's a continuation of the theme for the first day of the trading year. i think most people were underinvested at the end of december, coming into january 1st. and with the fiscal cliff fears, so the market was first up almost 3%. and basically for the last two months, it's been chasing performance. you're either not long enough, or you're short, and fighting shorts that haven't been working. and so, i wouldn't really expect too much of a pullback, at least until the end of the quarter, just because the performance has been so fantastic, and most people are underperforming. i don't think you want to have more cash and fewer longs given what the quarter is likely to be when it ends in two weeks, but are we overbought? there's no question. but i've been looking for a pullback for the last couple of days. i think most people in trading positions have been looking for a pullback. >> i don't know about there. there are some traders -- some traders i talked to, they say, look, this market continues to feel great. it depends on who you talk to. but kenny is on the floor of the exchange. he just wrapped up his trading and settled things out. what'd you see at the end of the day here, kenny? >> i saw a lot of the things that were originally looking like they were for sale actually flipped to the buy side right at the last minute. i think all the commentators are right. i think we're going to hit some real resistance here, and the test is going to be, if we break through that high on the s&p, the shorts are going to throw in this towel and turn to buyers and cover, which will then give added momentum to the market for sure, or are the real natural sellers going to come out as we hit some resistance and hold us. we're up 11% this quarter really year-to-date. almost 10.5% year-to-date. so i wouldn't be surprised if it continues to churn here. i don't expect it's going to fall off the edge at all, because there's a lot of people waiting, but i don't see it going markedly higher by the end of the quarter. >> so you said, late in the day, you saw imbalances on the sell side, and then it just turned ten minutes before the close. >> not even ten minutes. almost in the last couple of minutes, they went to the -- they paired off and went to the buy side small. >> that was interesting. dave, what about that? is this volatility at the end of the day or just rebalance and expiration and a lot of noise? >> it's just noise. everybody's expecting a correction, and there's no doubt that we're overdue for a correction or for a consolidation. but this may be one of those markets that kind of never lets anybody in. where it just kind of creeps up, because everybody's expecting a correction. >> and that's why people keep chasing it. >> exactly. >> in terms of the earnings story, we're two weeks away, we'll start getting earnings, first week, second week of april. is that going to keep up in terms of what this market is expecting? >> well, you know, what happens with earnings, i don't know if it matters so much, because the market, if you look at it right now, is still attractively priced. you know, with interest rates as low as they are, you should expect that valuations would be higher than they are. so we're trading at like 15 ps on the s&p. with interstates so low, they could be 17 or 18. there's still room for this market to move up quite a bit, even with earnings where they are. >> even though revenue has been unimpressive. >> right. >> you've got to throw that in there too. stephanie, what are the most important sectors we should be focused on, as we go into earnings? >> the sectors i've been looking at recently have been the sectors the that have kind of underperformed. we talked about energy, talked about technology. technology, the sector is up 4.6% year-to-date. trades below a market multiple. that's kind of interesting. and i think, certainly, the industrials. so i want to know, what is happening on the business investment side, capital spending. and i believe in the second half of the year, you are going to see a pickup, once you get through sequestration and debt ceiling and all those kinds of things. >> any thoughts on the banks, given what we saw last night? >> i was very impressed with the banks, in terms of the performance, and i still think those stocks are very cheap. a lot of stocks trading below tangible book value at this point. >> they are. >> they've really underperformed the market this year. and everything that's happened today is positive for them. >> after a great year last year. everybody, thanks so much. appreciate your time today. see you soon. nothing lasts forever, and that is certainly true with the dow's ten-day winning streak, which came to a halt today. kayla tausche recapping the week along with the winners and losers. over to you, kayla. >> the dow rally came to a halt today, ending that ten-day streak, and down the first friday of 2013. still, a solid week overall for stocks. the dow and s&p posting gains of less than 1%. the nasdaq was up slightly as well, but the headlines were really made when we hit those record market highs over and over, including the dow. dow transports, russell 2000, small cap index and the s&p midcaps, of course, the s&p 500, still just shy of its own record. but helping the dow toward its record, boeing. the company saying it's troubled 787 should be airborne within weeks. that stock up just about 6.5% this week. the dow's biggest laggard, home depot. that stock down big on the week, down about 3.25%. the best-performing large cap sector of the week, financials. we were just talking about it. that's on the back of the majority of the banks passing the fed's stress tests. wells fargo up the most there. to the downside, the west performer was telecom services. metro pcs, the big laggard there, losing more than 3%, as investors slammed its proposed tie-up with t-mobile. to be continued, maria. >> for sure. kayla, thanks so much. was today's small losses the start of something big? not if you ask sean darby from jeffries. he's here. get ready for a big time bull/bear coming your way. and apple is in the green after a bullish call by legendary investor bill miller. is that the start of a return to glory for apple stock? we'll check it out. and we'll find out which way the housing market could push this market. the top government official on housing, hud secretary, shaun donovan is here in a cnbc exclusive. that and a lot more coming up on "closing bell" on cnbc. at fidelity, we do it by merging two tools into one. combining your customized charts with leading-edge analysis tools from recognia so you can quickly spot key trends and possible entry and exit points. we like this idea so much that we've applied for a patent. i'm colin beck of fidelity investments. our integrated technical analysis is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. ca welcome back. no all-time high for the s&p 500 today, but that hasn't changed my next guest's bullish call on stocks. in fact, he's so bullish, he has a year-end target on the s&p of 1673. that's more than a 100-point gain from here. s&p today closing at 1560. that makes sean darby of jeffries the most bullish analyst ton street and joins me with a nonbeliever calls for a 20% or more correction beginning within a month. we're talking about walt zimmerman. good to see you guys in our old-fashioned bull/bear debate. sean, why the raging bullishness? >> i think this market has been setting up for higher highs since november of last year. we've had an extraordinary period of share buybacks, which has meant that the market is being squeezed continually by the companies actually buying back shares of very, very, very, very small free floats. secondly, people's expectations on earnings were very poor going into the end of the year, and we've been seeing those numbers being revised up. thirdly, the breadth of the stock market is telling you that there's a lot more going on in terms of economic activity than people have expected. and last but not least, there's actually some real green shoots of a corporate capex spending recovery, which has not been imprinted in people's earnings numbers. i actually think the actual numb markets are going to continue to make higher highs. >> but when you say the quality and depth of this market, a lot of people say it's really not. because first of all, when you look at the fundamental case on earnings, revenue has underimpressed, or it's underwhelmed. it's not a lot of growth in revenue. number two, as far as the depth of the market, the precipitation is not necessarily across the board. the retail investor is still in bonds. >> well, i think that's the ultimate story. you've still got an enormous bubble that's built up in the fixed income markets that's going to slowly unwind. and i think the generally buying power is only just starting to appear in the equity markets now. i think even last year, the turnover in the equity markets was so poor despite the fact that the markets were making advances over the past couple of quarters. but i think the real test of this is the fact that companies are preferring to buy back their shares than actually issue new shares. and until that starts to reverse, i don't think we're going to have a top on these markets. >> walt, your best-case scenario is a 20% correction. what's the worst case, if that's the best case. >> well, in the near term, i still think we've got a shot at 1590. but there are three big things that worry me here. one is investor euphoria has reached almost unprecedented proportions, and i've learned to be really leery when everybody gets absolutely euphoric. the second thing is, overbought. the last time the market was this overbought, it was the prelude to a 20% correction back in 2011. the third thing i'm concerned about is the yawning chasm between the inflation-adjusted dow and the real -- and the nominal dow. the nominal dow is what we all see on screen. but when we adjust for inflation, it's a very different picture. we're way below the 2007 highs. we're way below the 2000 highs. it makes it, when you adjust for inflation, to get the real numbers, and by the way, this is what any economist or analyst does with any economic indicator. wages, income, retail sales, we never want the nominal number. we want the real inflation adjusting. when we do that for the dow, it doesn't look so great. it looks like, actually, a series of lower highs and lower lows since 2000. so we have a giant gap here, between what we accept as real, nominal, what we accept as real, and then the inflation adjusted. so that tells me that when we do get the next correction, it's probably going to be pretty brutal. >> what about that, sean. can you act on some of the things that walt is pointing out? i mean, one point walt makes is that investors are too optimistic. >> well, i think, certainly, in the very short period of time, over the last week or so, there's been an incredible crowding effect in terms of the markets, moving towards more bullish scenario. and i don't doubt that we'll have a few days of markets dropping from here, but, really, i think the trend has been set almost two or three quarters ago, as i said, when people's positions were very defensively going into the election and the whole fiscal cliff and the fact is, if you look at indicators like the political uncertainty index, we were almost to record highs at the end of last year. there's an enormous unwinding of defensiveness. just on the earnings and revenues picture, quite naturally, the outlook at the moment is still very pessimistic towards earnings. 24 months out, people are still downgrading, sales numbers are still flat. that's, as i said, still the story that's got to unfold. and last but not least, the key here is that real interest rates are negative. and that's exactly what the fed has been doing, because it's been undertaking financial repression, and under those circumstances, stocks do very well, and i think i wouldn't want to be shootrt here on the equity market. >> final word, walt? >> i was going to say one last point. massive amounts of share buybacks tend to happen near major peaks, not major lows. so i wouldn't necessarily put that in the bullish column here. >> all right, buybacks, something else to look at. thank you, gentleman. we'll keep watching and talk to you soon. appreciate your time tonight. samsung, meanwhile, launching its latest galaxy phone last fight, but rival apple's star was shining bright last night. hit tag two-week high. there was also a bullish call on apple from iconic investor bill miller on "squawk box" this morning. so is apple hot again? that's next. and how worried is president obama's housing secretary about flagging consumer confidence? shaun donovan will join us. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 seems like etfs are everywhere these days. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 but there is one source with a wealth of etf knowledge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all in one place. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 introducing schwab etf onesource™. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 it's one source with the most commission-free etfs. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 one source with etfs from leading providers tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and extensive coverage of major asset classes... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all brought to you by one firm tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with comprehensive education, tools and personal guidance tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you find etfs that may be right for you. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 schwab etf onesource-- tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 for the most tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 commission-free etfs, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you only need one source and one place. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 start trading commission-free with schwab etf onesource. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call, click or visit today. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 investors should carefully consider tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 information contained in the prospectus, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 including investment objectives, risks, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 charges, and expenses. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you can request a prospectus by calling schwab tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at 800-435-4000. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 please read the prospectus carefully before investing. welcome back. let's get to scott cohn. we have more breaking news now on a big insider trading case. over to you, scott. >> maria, the largest insider trading penalty ever, steven cohen may have just come out from under a big cloud, may have, because the investigation into individuals is officially ongoing. but, the civil insider trading investigation that has dogged his firm for years now is over with no admission or denial of guilt. it does, however, come at a huge cost. $614 million, as we said, the largest insider trading penalty ever, by far, to be paid by cohen's sac capital and several of its affiliate companies. the company calls the settlement a substantial step towards resolving all outstanding regulatory matters, and that would be huge. the s.e.c. calls the settlement historic. officials confirm they are done with sac, the firm. as for individuals, one analyst john horvath pleaded guilty to last year to criminal charges. and matthew martoela pleaded not guilty. for sac and its reclausive founder, this is, however, major damage control. $600 million plus penalty and $1.6 billion in redemptions last month, but, in fact, maria, it could have been a whole lot worse. so pretty amazing and pivotal development. >> it really is, scott. thanks so much. we'll keep watching any other developments that you bring us on this important case. scott cohn. history on wall street this week, the dow knocking down records like bowling pins until today. the s&p 500 come iing within a points of an all-time high. >> we deny make it 11 days in a row, but it was still pretty exciting. ten days in a row. we were up on the week overall, even though we were down today. we had big volume, maria. this was a quadruple witching expiration, and bottom line is, there was a rebalancing of the close for the s&p 500. let me show you, at&t, huge volume here. because these companies bought back stocks during the week. they're changing the weighting in the s&p 500, less stock for these three companies that were in here. they had to sell at the close, but all these companies had twice the normal volume and we had big, big trading going on right at the close. for the week, there's a big divergence going on this week. and i don't mean in the u.s. you see all the major u.s. indices are up and europe is up fractionally. i want to show you what's going on over in the emerging market area. because china was continuing to drop. there's been concerns about them trying to tighten credit in china, so all the chinese markets are down. look at these declines here, and the global markets move in tandem. bottom line is, they're not. next week, two big events. the fomc meeting. and it's the last ten days of the quarter. the s&p is up 10%, but hedge funds are only up 5%. think there's a little bit of panic right now going on in hedge fund land? i think so. have a good weekend. >> and to you, bob. thank you so much, bob pisani. despite all the launch of samsung's new smartphone, it still hasn't eclipsed rival apple in the eyes of the investors. take a look at the stock, up more than 2% on the session. and it may have been helped by what the widely respected bill miller, portfolio manager of the leg mason opportunity trust fund, said today on "squawk box." >> we had an overweight position on apple. we sold a lot of it in the high sixes and into the highs of last fall. we've just completed going overweight apple again. >> and ben par of cnet doesn't buy it, saying that apple needs to step up its game, but colleen taylor of tech crunch says samsung isn't much of a threat. ben, you make the case that samsung is a threat to haapple. why are you so bearish? >> i'm thinking long-term. when you think in the long-term trend, think two years ago. iphone was way outclassing all android devices. but now for the first time, you have a device that actually, truly, you can make the argument, is just as good if not better than the iphone. and the trend has been clear that android has been out-innovating and samsung has been the leader in that. if the trend continues that way, what's going to happen is that samsung is going to keep on growing faster than apple and the trend seems very clear to me. >> colleen, what do you think? you don't think apple should be worried at all by samsung? >> i think if anything, what we saw yesterday was is just proof that apple continues to be the innovation leader. now, tech crunch has spent a lot of time with the samsung siv and we love the device. it's a beautiful phone. it's really a wonderful device. but it's still a lot of the features and the form factor, the things that we're most excited about and that are garnering headlines are things that have actually been pioneered by apple and by the ios app market for months and sometimes even years here, when we look at video editing and video sharing, photo sharing. these are things that have all been done really well and popularized by apple. i think consumers know when there's going to be something new and cutting edge, apple is going to be the category leader here. i think we're all holding our breath for the past five to ten days, you know, apple didn't participate in that bull market that we saw in the rest of the market, because we're all holding our breath, seeing what samsung was going to come out. but i think the event yesterday just showed that there really wasn't much of a reason to be worried. that apple is still the leader here. >> it is a commodities business, right? are you worried that as prices fall, margins get hurt? >> i would agree that samsung is the one who has to complete on price here, and it's important to remember, samsung yesterday, no details about price. no details about the actual launch date, when this device is going to be available. there are a lot of x-factors here that are still shaking out. you know, they're following here. so they're going to have to cut their price load to be actually competitive. so i think apple is still going to be the profit leader here. >> well, i think you're right, and a year ago, maybe samsung was really following. but i think now that they've started to add features that just apple hasn't tried before. maybe samsung overloads those features, but i definitely want to try something, like the s-health feature or the transcription feature. apple has been the leader for years, but now we have to realize that now the market is becoming closer to equal and these devices are nearly equal. >> you're a tech guy here, though, and i think it's important to remember that marketing is so important, and that is still something that apple does better than anybody else. the event itself yesterday that samsung put on was awkward, it was strange, in some ways, that was almost dominating the headlines -- >> it was strange, but it doesn't matter in the end. all that really matters in the end is how sales go. and so far, samsung has proven that its marketing strategy works. it outclassed all the other android makers, even motorola, and now it can go after apple. i have a pretty good feeling that they understand how to market to a market that goes beyond just apple's market. >> i'm still -- i'm bullish on apple here. i think that apple is definitely the leader. i don't think -- i think if there's one thing we've learned over the past year is that apple can't rest on its laurels. but here, i don't think it has too much to worry about just yet. >> we'll see. we'll keep watching this. a very competitive field, we know that. thank you so much to you both for joining us. we appreciate it. we have some breaking news now. back to kayla tausche we go. >> maria, we're watching shares of constellation brands. the stock is up pretty sharply after-hours on the back of an announcement with the company reaffirming its decision with the department of justice. constellation subsidiary crown imports was part owner of a texas distributor of modello's corona brand. constellation says there's been substantial progress in the investigation. the market sees that as a good ar. there. thank you, today just as the housing market appears to be on the rise. up next, the top housing official in government, shaun donovan, will be speak state of american homeowner. also ahead, mod waters for carnival cruise line. two ships making ma calls, just 1,500 miles apart. we'll have the latest on the cruise liner's double trouble. plus, would yahoo! ceo marissa mayer's anti-telecommuting policy spa sparked as much criticism if she was a man proposing the same thing? 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(announcer) scottrade. voted "best investment services company." welcome back. a slew of housing reports due out in the week ahead. chief among them, existing home sales which will hit wall street on thursday. diana olick spoke with leaders at the housing summit in new york. diana? >> maria, there is definitely optimism here at the jpmorgan housing summit. it's something we haven't heard in a long time. and we especially heard it from stewart miller, the ceo of lennar holmes, one of the nation's largest home builder. he says the housing recovery is solid fundamentally and that home prices are not rising too fast. >> prices are moving up, not because costs are moving up so much, but because demand is getting so strong, we're seeing some freeing up in the mortgage market, so there's some liquidity out there. >> reporter: even as mortgage rates are rising, the builders are raising prices in order to deal with higher land and material costs. interesting, though, the mortgage bankers say credit is not easing, it's just that consumers are recovering. >> when i think about easing of credit, credit standards haven't changed in terms of solid fundamentals around income and documentation. what's changed a little bit, consumer's balance sheets have improved. so their debt's down. >> and that credit recovery is helping to offset rising mortgage rates. maria? >> okay, diana, thank you so much. what does that mean for the nation's housing industry and the nation's housing chief, and where we're headed. joining right now is the secretary of housing and urban development, shaun development. secretary, good to have you on the program. >> great to be with you, maria. >> i want to get your take of what alan greenspan said earlier on cnbc. he was on earlier today and spoke the housing market. >> home ownership rates are still at the bottom of the recent decline. i'm almost certain, however, they have already turned up and i'm reasonably certain that the rise in home prices has generated a very significant and important rise in home equity. meaning the equity of homes, which has basically moved a lot of underwater mortgages into positive ground. >> you agree with that? >> absolutely. in fact, just last week, the fed released data that showed that $1.64 trillion in new housing wealth created in 2012. so that is a huge contributor to what's happening on the consumer side and the other piece of it, the jobs report last friday, showed 48,000 new construction jobs. so this is -- we're back in a virtuous cycle, where the housing market is leading the recovery, because we're getting rising prices, rising wealth, consumer spending, but also more job growth from construction. >> i love it. that's terrific news. what struck me about greenspan's comments there is the penetration. so, the penetration of home ownership is still down. and it's growing, but we're still talking about a pretty good deficit there. what's going on with it? why is the penetration rate still low? >> well, two things, really. for anybody who's a parent of kids that are just out of college, they know a lot of them speaking on couches and -- >> or they move back with you. >> exactly. household formation rates is what economists would call it. but basically, we haven't had as many households forming. there's a big potential for a jump in the coming years in that, but we haven't seen it accelerate enough. as job growth continues, that will happen. the other issue has been credit availability. and we've seen some signs that it's easing, but we need to do more. that's why the president has said, we ought to help more families refinance. millions of homeowners still underwater, who could spend $3,000 more a year, boost consumer spending, if they could save on their mortgages, but we need to accelerate that. and the other problem is just new loans, for purchasing, are too hard to get. >> that's exactly right. that's where i'm going now, the loans that are hard to get. here we are yesterday, coming out with the federal reserve's commentary on the capital plans for the banks. they want them to hold more capital, you know, make sure that they have enough in reserve. obviously, sounds like a good thing. but is this going to handicap them in terms of lending? how do we get the banks to lend more? >> look, we can't go back to the bad old days. we have to make sure that we don't repeat the sins of the past. but within that, what we need to do, we need to establish the rules of the road going forward. we recently put out the qualified mortgage rules, which have generally helped to ease credit some, but there are more steps that we could take. fha, part of hud. we're about 25% of the market right now. we've made a number of changes that are going to ensure that credit remains available going forward. all of those are steps that we can take, but we have to keep going, and we can't do anything that's going to upset the apple cart, if you will. we can't take, you know, whether it's with fannie or freddie, or fha, steps that would reverse the progress that we've made. >> take us back, sure. >> interest rates, obviously, at rock bottom levels, have been key to this recovery's story. what happens when the federal reserve starts winding things back? i mean, we're going to look back at this period one day and say, can you believe i could have borrowed and bought a house at 3%? it is pretty extraordinary. >> it is extraordinary, and it's something that we know and i think the fed's done a good job on this, to be clear, that they will hold those rates for some time, so i'm not concerned that that's a danger to the recovery in any way. here's the missed opportunity, though. millions of families that are under water that are still paying 6% or 7%, if we can pass the president's refinancing legislation, we could really boost, use those interest rates to boost consumer spending. and that's something we have to get back to. that's one clear piece of business that we can do in congress this year that could accelerate the recovery. >> are you seeing people take advantage of these low rates in an aggressive way? do they have the wherewithal to do so, given prices are also coming up? >> generally, if somebody has sparkling credit, they've been able to take advantage and we're seeing multiple refinances. what we are challenged with is somebody who's been through a job loss or a lost hours, they had good credit before, we do have some folks that are sort of on the margins, who should be successful homeowners, that are having trouble getting credit. and that -- or a first-time buyer. that's another area. traditionally, we see 40 to 45% of home sales first-time buyers. now it's around 30. so that's another area. >> real quick, the fannie and freddie story is an interesting one, because they guarantee about half of bond mortgages in the u.s. we keep hearing about this idea that, you know, we're going to see a reduction of that. 31 million home loans. how come we haven't seen these reforms in terms of reducing the reliance on fannie and freddie. >> we did see just last week, ed demarco, who overcease them, come out with a number of steps that are going to help on that front. statement, fha, we've been reducing our footprint, and we've gone from about 30% down to about 17% of the market. so, we're encouraged by the steps that demarco announced last week. i think we should see effects to shrink the government footprint. but that's a very important area that we need to keep working on in the months ahead. >> all right. we'll leave it there. secretary, good to have you on the program. >> great to be here. >> good to see you, as always. we'll take a short break, another day, another nightmare on the high seas, unfortunately. now two carnival cruise ships now experiencing problems in the caribbean and passengers are understandably upset. we'll have the latest on the cruise company's double debacle coming up. and then, would marissa mayer, the ceo of yahoo!'s new policies have stirred as much controversy if she was a man. another female ceo says, no way, she wants to weigh in and we're back in a moment. stay with us. ♪ [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ welcome back, yahoo! ceo marissa mayer has been taking a lot of heat for her recent decisions. this week, she also took heat for raising the bar on hiring the standards. now, barbara maran goodrich is the ceo of the maran family of brands. she wonders if there would be the same kind of backlash if the company had a male ceo. good to have you on the program. >> thanks for having me on. >> why do you believe that to be true? >> i believe it to be true, because there's been a great deal of conversation about it. and i think that if a man had made this decision, there wouldn't be this type of conversation. >> well, why? >> why? well, because, first of all, i think that, you know, there's always points are being brought up with women leaders as the to, you know, what they look like and how they dress and their decision making. is it because of them being a woman? and i think that that needs to come to a point where people stop looking at gender and start looking at their decisions being ones where it's based on what's best for the company. >> right. so, what do you say about the ceo, then, of yahoo! banning telecommuting? what's your take on that? >> well, i don't know if i necessarily agree with it. i was one of those parents that were working from home for a few years, back in the 1990s, and it worked out well for me. and, you know, i think that you also have to look at, what is she trying to accomplish? if she feels that she needs to have people at her facility in order to be able to be in the culture and have the creativity, then i think that that's a decision that she's making and that it's, you know, it may work for her. i don't necessarily agree with her decision, but i do think that -- >> she's got the prerogative to do it? >> right, exactly. and i think that people need to go in and make decisions that are, you know, unapologetic. >> that's what a ceo does. it's called leadership. >> exactly. >> yeah. so in terms of the scrutiny -- so what you're saying is, the scrutiny of women versus men is alive and well and once again, here we are, debating something that would not even have been an issue if a man said it, because if a man said it, they would have just said it, and that's the way it goes, everybody would have gotten into line? >> i think so. i do think that we are getting better. you know, there has been a 54% increase in women entering small business since 1997. more than 50% of women are small business owners, as far as the numbers between man and women. also, women have now started entering into the industries that were mainly mail dominated. so women are making decisions and going into leadership aspects in small business and not necessarily in corporate america. so i do think that there is improvement, over the last 15 years, and we just need to continue with the movement. >> yeah, it's great. it's an interesting point. i guess we're all talking about this, because of these issues, over the last two weeks, and in cheryl sandberg's book, the message to women to lean in, getting a lot of attention. now, tonight, nbc's ann curry is going to sit down with erin callan, the former cfo of lehman brothers. and she asks her about the fact that men and women, while they come out of college at the same rate, it's the men that are taking on the roles of greater power. listen to what erin callan had to say about this. i want to get your reaction. >> maybe they don't want that. >> you're saying it's okay that they don't want that. >> sure, why not? i wanted it. but, it's okay not to. don't feel guilty for not wanting it. and i think that's -- that's what my message has helped some people who really decided not to do it to feel better, because i said, hey, it's not for everybody. and there are sacrifices that get made and maybe those sacrifices, in your value system, aren't worth it to you. and maybe in mine, they're worth it to me. >> you know, as a woman in business, i hear that and i say, well, that's true, you know, some -- maybe some people don't want it. but can you really blame that alone, when only 23 -- there are only 23 female ceos out of the entire s&p 500? >> well, i think that, first of all -- >> that are women. >> first of all, i think that her opinion is her opinion. and there are many women that are happy in accomplishing the goals that they've set out in life. i do feel that we need to have more of a push in women moving forward and as sheryl sandberg said, you know, having it be not climbing the ladder, but climbing a jungle gym. and you're going to have moments where you're going to have to lane in and you're going to have to really push to that next level. so, if you want that, but, you know, not everyone wants that. and i do know that there has been a significant increase in women going in to business for themselves, rather than into corporate america. and i think they're finding that that's where their passion lies. >> yes. yeah. great points there. good to have you on the program. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> we'll see you soon. we appreciate your time tonight. and i think this whole discussion is real valuable, barbara. thank you very much. be sure to catch out ann curry's full interview with former lehman ceo, erin callan, that's on nbc's "rock center" tonight on nbc. there's an oldie but goody called sea cruise. it was about asking someone special on a sea cruise. you probably avoid a carnival cruise these days. after one month after a drift cruise liner caused it pr, comes a report that two more ships have sending out sos signals. the latest, next. recognize me. but i am your market data. i know what you're looking for. i'm not chained to your desk anymore. i'm faster and smarter now. and so much less expensive. i am your market data. and if i do say so myself, i have never looked better. superderivatives introduces dgx. data done differently. welcome back. well, a double boat load of trouble for carnival has sent shares down today. simon hobbs is covering the story. simon? >> carnival is a $28 billion stock, but ccl's management just can't catch a break at the moment. first, this week, a failed generator on the carnival "dream" left it stuck in the port of st. martin, forcing management to hire planes to fly passengers home. now "legend" has failing engines. on board the "legend," the brother of this network's you a owe correspondent. >> it's very frustrating. you plan for weeks and weeks and months and months in some cases, and you plan on going to belize and that was canceled out on us and we planned on going to grand cayman and that was canceled out, also. >> investors are more focused on the fact that last month's tv pictures of the crippled carnival "triumph" drifting for days, complete, of course, with the failing bathrooms forced management to cut prices on carnival branded cruises to keep sale s buoyant. as a result, coo howard frank is cutting four-year guidance, promising analysts on today's conference call that the carnival division will generate better p.r. >> they are making some modifications to their messaging and communications right now. i think the issue of safety and on board the ships is more -- is less of a marketing issue, but it's more of a communications and public relations issue. >> the stock is remarkably resilient this year for all that's gone on, down not even 5% because it's so well insured and so run. and there are 100 ships sailing. >> still pretty extraordinary what's happening at this company. >> would you take a cruise? >> i can't in a long time but my parents have recently. thanks, simon. despite the stormy seas, could this be high time to hop aboard carnival shares? let's get into the action with brian sutland. would you get into carnival here? >> i have to tell you, simon makes a good point. it's a really well-run company in terms of management and what not, but in valuation, the stock is okay here. but really, folks, listen. the turn on equity is 5%. there's not a lot of room for error. if they get negative press here, now this is the second ship here, they're going to have some issues and they are going to have to go to the lower end type of consumer. lower their pricing power. that's going to cut into their margin. when you have return on equity that is so small already, now are talking about going out to the corporate bond market and sort of get this return for shareholder value. and so, i'm a little concerned about that, and i think that's why you are starting to see the stock get a little whip by, starting to fly around and, you know, the people in the pits behind me here, they weren't really trading it that actively. people are sort of leaving this stock to dead and there's sort of other consumer-type rationale that you can get into it, other than carnival. >> we'll leave it there. thank you so much, brian. for more great insight, stay tuned for "option lgs action," right ahead, top of the hour, 5:00 p.m. eastern. up next, my thoughts on whether you should buy this market dip. back in a moment.