Families, i do not think that is right. That is the exact message i got from this administration. Mr. President , i want to thank you, thank you for your leadership. I want to thank the Vice President s. I have only been through a few president s, but i have never seen somebody so handson. Walk into my Office Yesterday morning and they say the president is calling again. [laughter] rep. Mccarthy i pick up the phone, i happened to be the majority leader and i know my members well. The president gives me analyst of who i think would be best to talk to on the list. [laughter] rep. Mccarthy he was right. [laughter] rep. Mccarthy mr. President , they all voted for the bill. [applause] rep. Mccarthy today is a start. Today is the start of a new beginning. Yes, it is about providing Better Health care, but i happen to have been a Small Business owner. I listened to my district. You know how many families no longer have 40 hour jobs and now have to take two parttime jobs . For how many Small Businesses told me they cannot expand more because they were afraid of what obamacare would do for them. We are going to unshackle, build the economy, let people have greater choice in health. Protect preexisting conditions. And i think you for that work. Thank you for that work. I was this job before majority whip. I never had to go through a billing this. Being a whip is not a one person job. The deputy whip should get credit as well. Steve scalise never gave up. Answered every question. And the team between them i would put me on any team that we have had appeared i give you Steve Scalise. Have had. I give you Steve Scalise. [applause] rep. Scalise today we took the first step in rescuing families from obamacare. We have seen it across the country, this is not a hypothetical discussion. You see those families struggling in every part of our country. I have heard from families in Southeast Louisiana share with me stories of doubledigit premium increases every single year. Markup had the 27. 5 hour in the Commerce Committee, to pass this bill out of committee, we had a long and important discussion about Health Care Policy in america and how this is not about achieving some kind of political goal. Familiesut families, who are struggling under the weight of this law that does not work. So i worked with constituents and they shared with me stories about how obama care was affecting them personally. Unfortunately, i got a lot of Horror Stories. We talk about protecting people with preexisting conditions in the context of this bill and there are so many things, multiple layers that we passed today, that not only protect people with preexisting conditions, but actually focus real money on lowering premiums for families. With preexisting conditions. So during the committee hearing, i shared a story of one of those constituents. Chris from slidell who sent me a letter and talked about their family have a preexisting conditions, if Family Member with preexisting conditions, and how because of obamacare they are paying double digit increases. This is the real story. For those families that are being hurt by obamacare. One on told stories are the dramatic increases of the deductibles. Many families have 10,000 deductibles. For most people, that means they cannot use the health care that they have. So what chris told me was, not only when they go to the doctor they have to pay so much for the premium, almost everything they do they are paying outofpocket because they have such a large deductible. Basically, paying a lot of money for a Health Care Plan that is not work. Please provide relief for my family. We hear the stories over and over. What has been encouraging about this debate was that from the very beginning every member of congress that has been involved in getting the bill passed has been focused on two main things, the first is lowering premiums for those families that are struggling, and the second is making sure that patients and doctors are the ones that make the Health Care Decisions. In washingtonats should have nothing to do with the Health Care Decisions made between patients and doctors. And that ends with this bill. [applause] scalis as we went through the process, we said we will take the time to get it right because it will affect every person in the country. And every change made along the way made the bill better. Almost every change that was made along the way was focused on lowering premiums. Of course, there are other things we wanted to do. We reformed the medicaid program. Anybody will tell you, one of them most broken parts of health care is medicaid. We give states the flex ability to be innovative and do things that will be in a targeted way help those low income families in a way that medicaid is failing them today. It is another important aspect. We would not be here today without the work and help of the president and the Vice President of the united states, directly getting involved. Every meeting we had with members that wanted to get additional components added to the bill, the president said, bring them to the white house. I want to talk with them about how we can lower premiums. Because his focus from the beginning was the same thing. He knows obamacare failed. It is failing because it is hurting family so how can we lower premiums and give them more control of the health care. And ultimately all the meetings we had along the way that made the bill better were focused on those objectives and that is why it is so important we got this first step. There is a lot of work to be done and i look for to the Senate Taking the action they need to take, but actually getting a bill to the president s desk that will actually rescue families from this failed law and for patients back in charge of their health care. And the man that led the charge in starting the process in the committee was chairman greg walden. I want to bring him up. President , mr. Vice president , ladies and gentlemen, it has been a pleasure to work with you to get this bill to this point. I want to tell you what a great team you have and what a great team we have in congress and on the energy and Commerce Committee and the subcommittee chair, mike, on out. He has done incredible work on this as well. [applause] rep. Walden you have heard about our goal to get us back to a patient and doctor relationship to make insurance affordable to every american and available where they have choices and lower cost, it is collapsing around, statebystate, county by county. Last year to 25 counties where you only had one choice, this year it is 1022 and do here now where there are some counties where you will have no choice. That is not affordability, that is not access, that is not patient care. That is what we are trying to reform. You heard about medicaid reform. I started a medicaid reform in the 1999 session of the oregon legislature. We became the majority. I was the majority leader and we continued reforms to achieve the same goal of trying to get people care that they needed when they did not have it. And i continue that battle today. We reached out to governors, insurance commissioners, we reached out to innovators in the space and i think about the governor in utah who told us the story of having to position cms, two see if he could use a modern Innovative Technology to communicate with his medicaid recipients who had that same technology. You and i would know that as email. Nine months later, the government in washington denied his request to comedic it with people through a no through email. They told him i said to the governor, how much would that have saved the state . He said 6 million. Do you want to send spend it on postage on health care . Why do you have come to washington dc to get that kind of permission to begin with . What this legislation does is open up the ability for those dates to innovate, per doctors and legislators to get together statebystate and make a real difference for the people of utah, or the people of oregon, or florida. We can get it right. It is our duty and obligation. This is the first step. I look forward to the partnership with the senate and continuing on until we get this signed into law. Thank you. [applause] walden it is my pleasure to introduce the chairwoman of the budget committee, who put us on this task, a nurse, diane black. Ms. Black thank you. Some 45 years ago, i graduated from Nursing School and when i graduated i took an oath of honor to devote myself to those committed to my care. It is what brought me here to congress, because i saw, almost seven years ago scarlet you are listening to key republicans in the house, the Vice President introducing the president after the house passed the Gop Health Bill. That was followed by the speaker of the house, followed by Kevin Mccarthy majority leader, and then skew sillies Steve Scalise, and on. I want to bring in our bloomberg team. Reporters on capitol hill. And make and murphy is here with us on set in new york. We have been watching the House Republican leadership stand in the rose garden, celebrating since 3 17 p. M. , so this is getting to about a halfhour. It is 3 45 p. M. Now. Scarlet why are they doing it . It has only passed the house. I have to now go to the senate. And we will see a different bill come out of the senate. It will be a torturous path ahead of it. But i think why we are seeing what we are seeing, they had their talking points ready to go at this very lengthy ceremony, and they needed a win on this. It was do or die legislation. What is critically interesting if you look at the republicans that voted no, wisconsin, kentucky, arizona, all over the map, it is interesting to see. Now we go to the senate. Joe a few weeks ago it looked Like Health Care reform was dead. Then they came back with this and what is interesting is that this bill weakens the preexisting conditions stuff and it seems like that is what it took to get the votes. How did it ultimately result in what it took to get them over the top . I think you are talking about the mccarthy and meadows it allows states to obtain waivers, one is the Insurance Company no longer have to abide by those requirements and they can charge sick people more for coverage, the theory that it will reduce costs for other people who do not have preexisting conditions. Sahil that brought the Freedom Caucus on board, about three dozen ultraconservatives that would not support the bill without the weakening of those regulations. At the same time, that ended up having moderates holdout. What they did was ask for 8 billion as money to help people who was ever as a result of the waiver and do have preexisting conditions. It was enough to get the job dumpin it passed by two votes job done. And it passed by two votes. We have heard from those House Republicans who have had a rough couple of months. They finally signal that they can get something done. And the whole presentation that we saw, it was kind of like an Emmy Award Winning speech, they are very euphoric about it. Before they left i saw the speaker and majority whip Steve Scalise all smiles and share a hug. It is a huge deal for them. Scarlet you take the wins where you can get them. Julia we see senators already make the just is that they will get back to the drawing board on this. We heard them talk about why they took the risk. They had the votes to pass the bill and when you have those you pass the bill and yes we will go to the senate, as joe was wasing, and as sahil talking about preexisting conditions. There is a huge fight the left in this. How it will actually play out in practice. And they did not want to go back to the constituents and say again, we promised you repeal and replace and we have done neither. They cannot afford it. Julia what is the Sticking Point . There is talk about lack of detail, the Budget Office has not had a look at this, what will be the Biggest Issue . When thek the cbo, score comes out that will be important, particularly the hawkish wing of the party. Scarlet i want to bring Stephen Dennis denis into the conversation. A couple people pointed out that the Senate Democrats that have been all but silent in this of course, could stymie the bill explain how that would work. Stephen; the amendment on previous and conditions that put the bill over the top in the house, they are not even sure in the senate if it complies with the bird role, so it could be stricken as soon as it gets over your bed on top of that, it is not clear that the provision has anything close to 50 votes anyway. Steven well end up happening in the senate, according to senators i spoke with, they will craft an entirely new bill. It might take pieces of the house bill, but they do not want to own the house bill. It polls terribly. They want something that is their own and crafted so that craft it so they can give everybody ownership over here. They can only lose to republican senators. It is a tight majority. They will not get any democrats. And they have many who are unhappy about how the house bill was crafted. There are medicaid promises that this bill makes it worse. There are people, who particularly are age 5064, who would see skyrocketing premiums because the obama care subsidies would be lower. There are many senators over here that do not want to see that happen. Keep in mind, those over age 64 do vote. These are issues that will be very hard to do. And keep in mind, some republican senators are not necessarily in love with a doing the tax cuts. That is something that united the republicans in the house. I spoke with republican senators who are much more concerned with lowering premiums than doing the 8 billion tax cut in the bill. So there is a lot of negotiating to go. It will not happen in the next few weeks. Joe what does this mean for 2018 . Sahil good question. It may be early for that question. We know that democrats in the house will be pounded republicans with everything they have. There are a number of republicans in swing districts, including in new york, who are from swing or even democratic leaning districts who won in 2014 and they could win in 2010, but now the dynamic has changed. This bill will produce a lot of democrats telling Horror Stories about what it would mean if it does passes. If it does pass, the argument would be more powerful for those democrats. Them to say,ead please put it back in power. These House Republicans that took the vote will not be able to walk the back, they will have to defend it and live with it. I hate talking about 2020 so far away, but that is what we know. Scarlet does House Republicans are at the rose garden still celebrating essentially, going on for about 30 minutes as they each take a step up to the podium to talk about the stories under obamacare and to give a pat on the back, with the whip saying this is the most handson president he has even seen. He has ever seen. Julia sean spicer joking the other day that Hillary Clinton was celebrating before anything was over. They have gotten bored in this shot. Interesting when you talk about 2018 and Hillary Clinton emergency again on the front page this week. You have a republican galvanizing right now, but a galvanizing moment for the Democratic Party that was showing anything but resistance to trump. This will have a real world impact on families and an older generation and people whose subsidies will be taken down and this is possibly a big rallying point for them the breakthrough. Julia Media Coverage of this has been meteoric, wherever you look, it has been negative. It pulls incredibly low polls incredibly low. President trump with his numbers down. And this piece of legislation, they wanted to own it, they have done it now, but there are things in the bill that are tremendously unpopular that they wanted to defend. Scarlet let me end with you sahil, now going through step one of the process, what does this mean for President Trumps agenda, how does he pursue the rest of his agenda . Sahil one of the reasons the president has been so determined in emphatic about getting this of the finish line is to prove he can get things done. He ran as a dealmaker, somebody who could pierce through the status quo with sheer force of his negotiating talents and his intelligence, as he would argue. And this is the first step in his view to showing he can get things done. The promises he made, this was chief among them. Now he has tax reform and we do not know the Health Care Bill will get there, but this is a signal to the American Public that he will try and could potentially get things done. Julia thank you. Sahil kapur, thank you, Stephen Dennis, thank you. Thanks to you all. Plenty more to come from new york. This is bloomberg. Scarlet whatd you miss . The Parent Company of Dunkin Donuts reporting lower than expected First Quarter revenue today. The ceo said in a more challenging environment for retail and restaurants. It is not only Consumer Behavior that he needs to keep an eye on, we have President Trump returning to the podium at the rose good. We will listen in. Pres. Trump some of the men and women in front of me, and of course, i want to thank the media. [laughter] pres. Trump thank you all very much. [applause] pres. Trump thank you. Scarlet ok. The president wrapping up the celebratory, the celebration of the rose garden after the house passed the gop Health Care Bill. We will go back to Dunkin Donuts, it is the cost of Employee Health care that cook that could change the picture. We will ask how the gop Health Care Bill could change costs. Nigel, from what i understand, because there is a wanted to percent franchised Business Model the proposed change does not mean much for Dunkin Donuts, but give as perspective on how congress and the white house are determined to pass a Health Care Bill that has not yet been scored for its costs and has not been a lot of debate. Nigel first, thank you for having us. I have been following, as you guys have, and i think it is too early to say the effects because there have been summoning changes over the last few weeks, as we have heard, it has to go to the senate. What we will do is sit down and analyze it and speak with franchisees, because we are a 100 franchised business, which is one major part of the success of the brand. We rely on relationships of the franchisees. Previously, i spent, i know i spoke with you before about this, we were very concerned about the definition of fulltime employees. We need to see if it has changed. Once it has been debated in the senate. And in terms of the health care, one thing we are very concerned about is earlier this week, it was decided that the mandatory bill that was part of the afford a book Health Care Act was affordable Health Care Act was going to be delayed a year. It is unfortunate because it will delay the opportunity for consumers to read about calories. We have invested a system in it. And i think it is that for consumers. And it is creating a regulatory nightmare. We are going to have one jurisdiction over another. So i am hoping they change the approach. I hope they will push through the menu labeling proposal, which was supposed to go into force this week. And all it will create is more bureaucracy and revelation. Julia i want to pick up on your earnings very briefly, you cited the amazon affect, the challenging environment you are now facing. Give us a flavor of what you are doing to boost growth, the mobile app, and how can you offset the challenges you are facing right now . Nigel everyone is facing the challenge of consumers who want things faster, they are more demanding in terms of quality and of the value. And the mobile app is perfect, because what it does is it allowed people to go in more than once or twice a day, they can order what they want remotely, press a button and it is paid for. They do not have to check out. So contrast that with a Grocery Store where you have to go pick it up, go through the line to check out and then you have to pay. You get that all done before you even come in. We really think the on the go app is a killer application and we think it is the way forward and it will drive convenience for consumers and accessibility for the product. Scarlet ok. Nigel travis, thank you. Is hisket close next. Little has changed. This is bloomberg. The shows about to start how do i look . Like a bald penguin. [ laughing ] show me the Billboard Music awards. Show me top artist. Show me the top hot 100 artist. They give awards for being hot and 100 years old . Well take 2 [ laughing ] xfinity x1 gives you exclusive access to the best of the Billboard Music awards just by using your voice. The Billboard Music awards. Sunday, may 21st eight seven central only on abc. Julia whatd you miss . The house voted and healthcare stocks shrugged. Energy stocks with the worst day in two months. Oil dragging everything down. Scarlet im scarlet fu. Joe i am joe weisenthal. If you are tuning in on twitter, welcome to our closable coverage. Closing bell coverage. Scarlet we begin with market minutes. The house passed the Health Care Bill on the third time and it was a done deal by the time the market closed. The markets kind of limped to the close, not much action if you look at the numbers. Joe so much attention to politics and a little evidence it has had an effect on the market. Scarlet and the dow down by nine points, the s p 500 up, and the nasdaq holding your a record high. If you look at the groups they show were the action was. You mentioned oil prices plunging. Out of the 11 industry groups, only three of them were lower. The big movers, energy and telecoms moving by a big margin, Energy Stocks down 2 as a group is the Oil Prices Went below 46 a barrel. Consumer staples on the upside, and health care coming up by 6 10 of a percent. We will take a look at individual companies United Health the biggest percentage gainer, humana trading at a record high. Humana having their best day since early march. Large diversified insurers with alexa exposure to the Exchange Markets are higher. This up bycan see, 2 . At the north American Hospital as senateing losses republicans push the bill passed the finish line. And energy down a present, posting First Quarterly profits since 2013. It has braced shareholders for a surge for the second half of the year, but you see the effect of the oil prices on shares. Joe we will take a look at government bonds. To 1. 31. Ear yields up tenure, 2. 35. Interesting we saw the sustained pressure on the u. S. Bonds, especially since the risk assets were mediocre and commodities sold off. Nonetheless, the rates are higher. Moving higherr, in germany, with optimism creeping in and they have really on employmentw and more confidence that probably the winner of the French Election on sunday will be macron. Maybe after the debate last night. A bit of optimism in europe. Joe less anxiety. Julia and looking at currency, to look at the euro and sterling, crossing the dollar index. The bloomberg dollar index, down. 022 . Taking out some stock in the dollar index. More broadly, this morning the dollar peaking with the u. S. Interest rate outlook unchanged on the back of what we got from the fed. You would expect an inverse relationship between the dollar and the commodity market, but not really the case today. Unless you look at what we are seeing in terms of the currencies and commodities, under a bit of pressure. Of 1 . Is higher by 2 10 the ruble, dollar, higher by 1. 8 . The russians really feeling the pain of what the current price i crude price is. Joe lets talk about some of those commodities. Ugly day across the board, red as a bloodbath. Iron or down nearly 6 . Crude oil near 45 a barrel. Down another 5 for west texas. And rubber, not a commodity we talk about very much, down 3. 8 . Copper, down 1. 2 . We will take a look at some longterm charts to put these in perspective. Oil really falling, lowest levels since november. There you go, commodities not looking good. Julia where does it stop . Scarlet lets get the latest on the passage of the gop Health Care Bill. Kevin joins us from the rose garden. It seems like every has republican was lined up at the podium to take a turn at giving a pat on the back to themselves and the president s. They will know go home claiming victory, arent they . Kevin unity was the message from the president and Vice President as they looked this is momentum as the vote goes to the senate. Already the work is going on. In the upper chamber, concerns that the bill could pose a Political Risk in 2018. I posed the question about the future of legislation to the republican from south carolina. Take a look. The prospects going forward, it is murky. Planeality is the house plug up some of the accounts for preexisting conditions by about 8 billion, so it will give us whats ability on how we handle those who need the coverage. Kevin clearly all attention faces the senate. And this is going to have momentum, that is at least the message coming from the white house. The polling so far has not suggested this is a popular bill, so why was there so much eagerness to get out in front of the camera, stand there, pat each other on the yack, applaud themselves, wh when it doesnt say might must people are excited about it . Kevin we do not have much time, but i can tell you if you talk to the republicans, this is largely popular among them and i think when you see the message, it is clearly momentum. Joe kevin at the rose garden, thank you very much. Julia being thrown out of the rose garden. Now getting more insight from the executive director and ceo of permanent day medical group. And author of mistreated. Thank you for joining us. I know your focus in the book is the future of health care and we will get to it, but i want to ask you about the bill. We are less than half of the way there. How far through are we in your eyes . I think we are just out of the starting gate. We need to figure out what will happen with preexisting diseases, how much of portability there will be affordability there will be, and then we have state waivers. Andhe senate has to decide, back to the conference committee. It will be a long process before the final bill is passed. Julia the health care of 10 million americans, do you see this as a step in the right direction if indeed this in some form holds . It will notworried be funded. The more significant piece is the Delivery System. That is why i wrote the book mistreated. The Delivery System cannot control costs or improve care, no matter what is done for coverage it will break apart. Easy examples, people examples, people die every year because of medical erros, you cannot get the same kind of health care you get in the rest of your life, you cannot secure method in place. There is no transparency of data. The Current System is broken and we need to fix the Delivery System or whatever is passed by congress is doomed to fail over time. Scarlet what do politicians get wrong when they look at the cost drivers of health care . Robert i think they miss the underlying foundation is broken. It is fragmented. Hospitals and doctors in every town using technology from the last century. The opportunity to change that structure, to integrate care so doctors are working together as one, to use modern technology for records and the opportunity to use mobile and video. The fact we need to move to prepayment with measurable outcomes and the ability for people to compete. That is the future and also the presence, because that is what we need to start doing today. Joe i think people who even have good Health Care Plans find this frustrating, it is hard to pick a health care provider, they find dealing with Insurance Companies to be frustrating. Could there be a reform that will make it enjoyable or at least not a painful system to deal with . Permanentese kaiser as an example, if you have coverage and come in you know exactly what it will cost. All your information is available. Hypertension instead of being controlled, 90 . Colon cancer prevented 90 of the time. It is all coordinated and it can be done. I am the chairman of practices, kaiser permanente, and other they have figured it out. The question is how do we bring all of America Forward . Julia in the short term we have the house and senate now trying to amend this in some way and to put something together that will work in the short term. What do you think about the preexisting condition situation in this country where you have one in four people with one, is there a way to viably cover these people that is better than obamacare . Essential that we cover people, particularly those with preexisting conditions, they are the ones that are sick. If we do not take care of you, you develop applications. You will lose your kidneys from kidney failure, you will develop heart disease, and it is more expensive to do it. The hard part is you need to invest upfront and that is what we are talking about right now, covering people with preexisting conditions is essential. Covering americans with broad coverage so they can get the care is key. And that is the theme. Book and it is all in the and all profits go to charity. Robert thank you very much. Julia thank you robert pearl. The author of mistreated. Scarlet in the meantime, we have been getting corporate earnings. We will start with cbs reporting firstquarter adjusted earnings. Higher than what the analysts had been looking at. 3. 4 billion. Retransmission fees, that is contributed to the revenue. According to the ceo. Joe now taking a look at shake shack, the stock diving, down another 9 . A stock that was not far from 100 a share in late 2014. More mediocre numbers. This quarter does not seem horrible. . 10. Justed, the revenue also beating expectations. But it is not good when you look at comparable sales. Q1, down 2. 5 . And versus estimates the outlook not good on the cocktails. Comp sales. This is bloomberg. Im mark crumpton. Mark President Trump and House Republicans hailing the passage of legislation today to replace obamacare is enough obamacare is legislation, the house bill was tight with no democrat supporting it. It has it has been a catastrophe and this is a great plan. It will get even better. This is a repeal and a replace of obamacare, make no mistake. Mark the president predicts passage of the Obamacare Repeal bill in the senate, but with this in a more moderate than the house it is not expected to come to a vote in its current form. The senate avoided a Government Shutdown with a 1. 7 trillion spending bill that largely ignores the president s priorities such as the Mexican Border wall and cuts for environment and health care programs. The president is expected to sign the measure which will fund the government through september 30. According to people familiar with the matter, budget talks lay ahead regarding the next fiscal year, which will start october 1. And north korea could face expanded u. S. Sanctions following a resounding show of bipartisanship in washington. By a vote of 4191 the houses passed a bill to crack down on money going to north korea, as well as imports produced by forced labor. President trump is considering options following a series of missile tests. Antigovernment protests continue in venezuela. Protesters and police clashing again today. Demonstrators tried to march to the headquarters of the countrys national el toro commission. The country has been slammed by protests for weeks which have killed at least 30 people this past month. On wednesday, the president called for a Popular Assembly to rewrite the constitution. Global news, 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. Joe whatd you miss . The april jobs report is tomorrow and economists estimate 190,000 payrolls to be added for more insight we bring in the senior u. S. Economist for bloomberg intelligence, and our macro strategist. Of weak data. We will get into q2 and see if it was transitory. How are things looking so far . Economies are well aware of the problems and that is what probably drove the weakness in the First Quarter. Butwe will see a rebound, what we really need to see is a sustainable and significant pickup in growth trend. This is something that will not be possible without the significant pickup in consumer spending. For that, we need Income Growth to pick up. This is something that we will be watching very closely in the payrolls report tomorrow. Scarlet we have a chart right here. It speaks to that seasonal weakness in the First Quarter data and it resulted in hard data coming in hit and miss over the couple of months. Soft data is the white line. When we look ahead, what is needed to keep the white line higher . We have some political victories, maybe not oral plural, with the Health Care Bill passing. Is that something that will give the outlook elevated . Yelena i think the white line will continue to fluctuate, and that will be driven by political activity this year. What we need to see is to see a sustainable pickup with the white line and eventually in the hard data, is Income Growth and wage growth, which we have not seen so far. We have been meddling along muddling along. Julia part of the equation is Business Investment. We are looking at the best earnings season in eight years, which must be good profitability. It all ties in, because the pace of growth and job creation it outpaces gdp. Yelena that has been the missing piece in Business Investment does need to pick up for continued job growth and wage growth to materialize. But some strength in the First Quarter was driven by the energy sector. That might not be sustainable over the next few quarters going forward. So we need a more broadbased pickup. Scarlet especially after today. Joe absolutely. I want to bring in cameron. We are looking at june already. Already,fed decision but never too early to look ahead. We have a chart here, what are we seeing and what is the market telling us . Cameron this is the futures contract the white line at the bottom basically where it nextgo if the fed hikes month and the blue line is where the logo they do not. As you can see, we are closer to the white line, a rate hike, than the blue line. So there is a symmetry. It is baked indicate that they will move in june. In the near term the risks are skewed to the other way. Joe laughter, whether was the may report origin report, or report, it june was a clunker. Cameron we had 90,000 last month, so if anything i would say that perhaps the perceived risk is the other way, that we did get the rebound. And also april, as far as that data, it is seasonally the strongest month of the year. About 30,000 more than the average month. Julia we talked earlier in the week about the record short positions we had in 10 years splitting to a long and what were talking about here is the pricing at the front end of the curve rather than the longer and end. This is worth looking at. Joe the white line is speculative positioning. Cameron which you can see, the scale is really not important. You cannot probably see it anyway because it is so small. The bottom of the chart shows they are short, and as you can see there is a bird dramatic move there is a very to medic moved to go short after the election. And remember the big 230 have been to 60 range 230260 range, and having broken below that range, the market has gone long. The blue line is on the front end of the curve. On policy. And those are still pretty close to the record short. There is a discrepancy. Which is interesting. And again it skews the perceived balance of risk in the near term for market pricing. Julia what does that say about the researcher spending and the tax bill potentially . Guys, thank you very much for talking with us. Cameron. D scarlet and we look at you earnings news. Zillow Group Reporting results they have raised their revenue outlook after it comes after the First Quarter numbers coming in higher than anticipated. . 11 more than doubled what the analysts had anticipated. Revenue higher by 10 million. 245. 8 million for the First Quarter. The shares climbing by 2 . Julia good news for herbal life. I just and earnings the adjusted earnings raised. In at 105 1. 05, that is significant. 4. 5 . Ere are we come up very strong. And i was looking at the headlines saying that the ceo of herbalife is taking a victory lap for the revenues and results for the second quarter. Stay with us. You are watching bloomberg. Joe i am joe weisenthal. Whatd you miss . Lets take a look at the relationship with Precious Metals and government bonds. We have a chart going back a year showing the ratio in blue is the copper to gold ratio, white is the 10 year yields. Tracks it pretty currently pretty clearly. Copper is a growth metal. Going up when the economy does well. And gold is more the anxiety metal. So when it goes up, people are optimistic. There has been a divergence lately if we zoom in. You can see the rates went up today, but the ratio for metals is going down. It will be interesting to see how and if it diverges, definitely one of my favorite to watch. Scarlet we will continue to watch the plunge in metal prices. Something we will talk about. And we will keep an eye on what the white house does next after the house passes the gop Health Care Bill. From new york, this is bloomberg. Mark welcome to first word news. The Republican Health care overhaul bill has passed the house on a 217213 vote, mostly along party lines. House Speaker Paul Ryan said it is a solid move toward ending obamacare. Speaker ryan today is a big day, but just one step in this process, an important step. We have a lot to do to get this signed into law. Our friends in the senate are eager to get to work. Byk however democrats led nancy pelosi save republicans now own this. Rep. Pelosi as i said, this vote will be tattooed to them. They will glowinthedark. This is a good civics lesson. Most americans dont know who the member of congress is they do now. Mark according to some republican senators, this bill has little chance of being passed in its current form. President trump criticizing president obamas former National Security adviser for failing to testify in a Senate Hearing on russian interference in the 2016 president ial election. Mr. Trump tweeted it is not good that susan rice is not choosing to attend. She will not appear before a Senate Subcommittee next week with two formal Obama Administration officials. The Paris Prosecutors Office is investigating whether fake news is used to influence sundays president ial election. Prosecutors started the probe after front runner emmanuelle macron filed a lawsuit, suing Marine Le Pen after she suggested in last nights debate that he could be holding an offshore account in the bahamas. Debunkedors were today. American men are learning the benefits of a college education. A new study says young men are enrolling in Higher Education in record numbers. 67 of men who graduated high school last year are now going to college, the highest number ever. Women still outnumber men on campus. 72 of female graduates are in college. Global news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Scarlet we saw the s p 500, tao, and nasdaq recover to close slightly higher. Little change for equities. The big mover was a in oil prices, trading at a 45 handle. Cbs, whichom recorded decline in sales because of tough comparisons. Sales did beat analyst estimates, as did earnings per share. Stock is up more than 1. 5 . Joe the big loser after hours 8. 5 . Ke shack, falling the numbers beat expectations, but store sales have fallen when analysts expected a slight gain. They have seen zero store sales growth for the fiscal year versus expectations of 3 gain. Scarlet i think my family kept the shake shack comparable sales from falling further. [laughter] herbalife,ve on to soothing investor fear that u. S. Regulators would hold them back in some way. They reported firstquarter adjusted eps on 124, the estimate is . 95. Net sales for the First Quarter beating estimates 1. 10 versus billion. Tation of 104 theyou this earlier have adjusted their fullyear eps to the range we are talking about now. Before the range was at three dollars and . 65. A significant pickup for herbali fe, minimizing the damage from the deal that they struck with the federal trade Commission Last year. Whatd you miss . President trump applauded the past of the house Gop Health Bill earlier and reiterated the problems with obamacare. Pres. Trump it has been a catastrophe, and this is a great plan. I think it will get even better. Make no mistake, this is a repeal and replace of obamacare. Lets get more perspective on the potential impact of this bill. Medicarethe aca and under the Obama Administration and joins us on the phone from long beach california. Thanks so much for joining us. Clearly you put a great deal of work into obamacare. The republicans celebrating when they are seeing, talking about the huge victory. How do you feel . Andy we should be proud as a country that over the last several years we have 20 Million People injured, access people insured, access to health care, protections to preexisting conditions. If this bill were to become law, that would all move backward. 24 Million People would lose their coverage. People with preexisting conditions protections would lose them. We should really consider whether or not we can get a political win for one party or the other, but the actual impact of these policies on real people. Do you believe that the senate will reconsider this, and it will look phenomenally different to what it did in the house . Andy i believe we have two senators saying they will not support this bill. It is a difficult vote for anyone in the senate, particularly if they are a state that has expanded medicaid. I suspect they will have to go back to the drawing board. Further, i assume they will be using it much more deliberate thoughtful, appropriate process than was used in the house, where there were no hearings, minimal debates, no scoring from the congressional Budget Office. I think the senate will have to show us the right way to consider legislation. The republicans would say about their bill is that they are not depriving people with preexisting conditions access to insurance, merely giving states more choice. Explain to us what is flawed explain the mechanism by which the ahca would cause to 24 Million People to lose Health Insurance. Andy if they really believe that, i am sure they wouldve waited for the cbo score before they voted. This was a rush vote to leave town. 40 Million People will lose access to medicaid. Another 10 million lose coverage because tax credits, particularly those over 50, get stripped. Explicitly with a new amendment takeaway the federal protections against discretion against discriminating those with preexisting conditions. That is not hard to argue with. I know the president sent otherwise, but unless you know something that is not in the actual text, that is not the case. Scarlet the bulk of americans get their Health Insurance through employersponsored plans. To what extent does individually does modifying the individual market change expenses . Ony the impact of this bill people that get insurance through their employer is pretty significant. For one, it will now be legal once again to put lifetime limits and caps on policies and reduce essential benefits. That was prevented under the Affordable Care act. 7 milliontimated people with employersponsored coverage would lose that coverage. Before you take health care costs, this is going to have a Significant Impact on peoples personal cost if they lose coverage or have coverage capped. Scarlet andy slavitt. I just want to make the point if something is not financed well, does not make economic sense, no matter how important the coverage, it is not viable. It is tough. I get all the challenges. Joe it will be interesting to see how the senate wraps this up. A blizzard in canada did a serious damage to the winter crop. Prices, we will get a look at global soft commodities. This is bloomberg. Scarlet whatd you miss . A blizzard in western kansas damaged a winter wheat crop. In other soft commodities, cocoa and sugar declining. What is the bigger story . For analysis we welcome a meteorologist and Commodity Trading advisor for best weather inc. Com. Whhy dont we start with eat . Is it dividing on rumors and selling on fact . This was just a shortterm reaction of short covering. You are seeing Great Potential in russia and eastern europe. Joe so that storm in western kansas, certainly pretty extraordinary images this time of year. Put kansas into context, and how surprising in general it is to see events like this. Seeing snow and frost on the ground in this region. James you need Something Like this to get these ag markets out of the doldrums. Since we last spoke about a month ago, we are dropped 5 or 10 on most commodities. With el nino forming in the next two months and Global Temperatures changing, we might see soft commodities, especially cocoa, bottom in the next few months. Can i move you from wheat to sugar . We have seen some the bleeding concern some depleting concern about what is going on with the brazilian yields. James when the market was soaring to its highest levels in years, with el nino, we see a rebound in global sugar production. Thailands reservoirs were depleted from rains and droughts. We are going to need a real strong el nino that may not develop the kind of creative drought in india. I am going to ask the most ignorant question i have ever asked, but is it just me, or is there an el nino forming . When we talk about the weather, it seems like there is always an el nino. James it is cut directions with solar activity. It is very complicated. Ninos are now more frequent than they were 30 or 40 years ago. This one may be fairly tame. My biggest concern is whether in the south and potential flooding in thecross weather south and potential flooding in the crops. It brought the mississippi to the highest levels in 150 years. We will have to wait and see. Hopefully for a lot of people it wont. Scarlet im looking at a chart of cocoa, down by more than 40 . Has comepast week, it back a little bit. Has cocoa bottomed . James a load of people were bullish when our weather programs predicted a rebound. We have to look at traders, the people along this market. When you look at a production change, everybody runs for the fences. With the dryness in west africa, a few weeks is not a big deal. But if major changes in the oceans cool and this el nino develops, we could see a bull market in cocoa a devastating six months to one year from now. Joe i have a calling that lives on a farm and has cows. Cattle futures have been surging since last october. What is going on there . James i am not really familiar. [laughter] there is usually an inverse correlation with the price of corn. Chin,rices take it on the we see the drop rates in the plains. I am not buying in the Cattle Market right now. Sugar, grains, natural gas is my expertise. Lets stick to cocoa prices. I dont want to see a rally in cocoa prices. [laughter] james there is an inverse. Orrelation hopefully i thought you were going to show me some chocolate, i was all excited. We have to go, it was great to chat with you. Meteorologist and trading advisor speaking to us. From tough commodities to deals. President trumps made in america steel objective has its skeptics. Whether steel imports enter nash ishinder National Security a bridge to nowhere. This is bloomberg. Joe whatd you miss . President trump says his administration will restore the promised to the Steel Industry and level the Playing Field for its workers. For more on his America First we will bring in a advisedarer who has shorting steelmakers based on the president s protectionist stance. First of all, welcome. What is wrong with the America First idea when it comes to steal . To steel . Steel meals have complained about imports. U. S. Auto demand has peaked. The numbers in april were bad. Looking at other demand indicators in the united states, construction spending, construction employment all these things are negative. Not as a chinese market, u. S. Market. Even if the excess production doesnt come into the united states, it will push prices down, which will hurt steelmakers. Those people sell globally. Scarlet so you are saying he is a victim of timing in terms of this policy. It is not timing this is the approach of the steel mills since the 1940s. Evil imports. Scarlet but with the auto cycle, you are saying it has peaked. Yes, from a demand perspective, it is bad timing. You have a Growth Perspective in china that is pushing down steel prices globally. That will hurt the u. S. What is this situation they have china to tackle at and the fact that prices were working in their quarter and yet they seem to have a complete shocker. What is the deal . Gordon i think it is demand. It is also china. A Wealth Management product that was essentially completely fraudulent. In china,s came out they are the same thing as cbos during the Global Financial crisis. Are they not looking . Are they not active enough . Gordon if you are u. S. Steel and you sell to ford motor, and they have to compete against toyota and other Auto International manufacturers, and as ford motor you have to buy steel at an artificially high price, that reduces your ability to compete. That will work its way to the steel mill. Joe lets talk about u. S. Steel. After the election that stock went ballistic. It has come down and erased a lot of those games. This chart is surging in november and plunging lately. What is the collective hallucination in november that caused people to misread it so aggressively . Gordon we have said this about u. S. Steel all along. Their capx has been under depreciated since 2013. They are not spending enough to keep up with upkeep. They will have to take a huge increase in capx and will not benefit from these steel prices in this hypothetical trump push. Their costs are the highest because their facilities are the most inefficient. You were seen that play through right now. The idea that we will be using industrial commodities, copper and steel to rebuild highways if we were to get a big infrastructure push, how would it filter through to the Steel Industry . Gordon we have seen big infrastructure passages before. We got one with obama. It takes years to implement. The earnings are not meeting the optimism. Highly skeptical if trump will get some of what he wants to get done through this congress. Even if we got an infrastructure package today and all of this up signs the stocks upsides the stocks, we will see this resonate within 6 to 12 months. You . At are ceos telling these are potential tax cuts. Gordon they are saying everything is great. You have to look at the data. You guys have show this chart numerous time on bloomberg. When trump got elected, the gap between the soft and hard data spiked massively. Soft data, that is optimism, sentiment, spiked. Over the past few months that soft data has collapsed. That optimism is collapsing with the reality of what we are seeing going on. For gordon johnson, analyst axiom capital. Great insight, appreciate having you on. Coming up, what you need to know to gear up for tomorrows trading day. This is bloomberg. F whatd you miss . A flat day in equities, but oil plunging below 40 per barrel. More earnings tomorrow fannie mae and transcanada report firstquarter numbers. Joe jobs day in the u. S. , the best day of the month. U. S. Data will be out at 8 30 a. M. Eastern time. We will see how that q2 labor data is doing. Dont miss this either, Stanley Fischer and Investment Bank president s speak throughout the day. Scarlet more evidence on whether that june rate hike is going to come. Joe Bloomberg Technology continues with an interview with square ceo. You are watching Bloomberg Technology noafter a tight vote and democratic support, republicans advance their Health Care Bill through the house. They effectively address the longtime french to erase the Affordable Care act. In the senate it is not expected to come to a vote in its current form. A one point joining dollars spending bill with no provisions for President Trumps priorities. Trump is excepted to sign the bill, which funds the government through september 30. The president says he will make good on his Campaign Promise to bans groupsaw that from endorsing religious candidates. He says his first trip as a head of state will include stops in saudi arabia, israel, and the vatican, where he will meet with pope francis. He will move on for visits to nato and a summit in italy. His meetings