Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20170328

The decision marks a longterm fix to overcome the discovery of high lead levels in the citys water system. Under that deal, flint would be responsible for replacing lead and galvanized steel lines that bring water into homes. The cost could be as high as 97 billion with federal and state governments roughly splitting the bill. The British Government is standing by its initial statement that now is not the time for a scottish referendum. The may administration repeated they will be no negotiations on the matter and the focus now is on brexit talks with the European Union. Scottish lawmakers voted today on a new referendum on independence to be held within the next two years. The Scottish Parliament voted 6950 92 back the first 6959 two back the call to back to the call. This is bloomberg. Minutes from the close of trading in the u. S. Scarlet stocks are as financial shares rebound. Joe but the question is whatd you miss . Scarlet the sector would have the most to lose as the white house moves on to the topic of border adjustment taxes. The trade of the decade. We will hear from one investment strategist who says now is the time to be in emerging markets. On the eve of article 50 we will hear from the vp of the leading party in greece and lessons we can learn from brexit. Meanwhile, the dow is set to snap its a day losing streak. The index near session high. Green across the board. Really impressive moves today after some nervousness yesterday. Bloombergs julie hyman is standing by with some charts. Is one of the many groups that is benefiting today. It is benefiting in part from the perception that a border tax may be more difficult to do following the failure of Health Care Reform to pass. Here is a threeday chart of the s p 500 retail. If finished up off the lows. Day gain. Today has been the strongest day of the three. I also took a look back at how retail has done since the election. You really have to break it down. The purple line is the s p 500 retail index. Weighted towards retailers like amazon but netflix and priceline. It is not all the retails you traditionally think of as being adjusted by the taxpayer if you get more granular, max margins in yellow. Specialty apparel is down 10 . The apartment stores are down 14 . Part of that is due to concerns about a border tax. Part of it also due to a tough Holiday Season for many retailers. But we talk about retailers they are very reliant on imports. I was speaking to an apparel analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence and she says 90 of what is sold in the u. S. Apparelwise is not made it not made here. This is cotton imports. This does not even include synthetic closing. Clothing. China on the top. Then you have vietnam in aqua and mexico in yellow. Anyway you slice it, you talk about you yes this is where they are getting the goods from. Particularly when youre talking about apparel. If there were to be a border adjustment tax it would definitely hit these guys pretty hard. Scarlet thank you for setting the scene. For more on retail want to bring in steve said off steve sadove. He levied retail federation. Today he is the Founding Partner of an advising firm. He is quite accomplished. Great to see you. Take you for coming in. Julie was setting the scene with retailers and how against the border adjustment tax they are. Is it safe to say it is unequivocally bad for the Retail Industry and theres nothing to be gained from it . Steve absolutely. I think in all the time i have been in the Retail Industry this is probably the most existential threat we have seen. Just about the profitability. I think it is a job killer. We talking about job creation. You are seeing Stores Closing already. Were only seeing the tip of the iceberg if were going to destroy the profitability of these businesses. Joe as the Retail Industry makes its case, what defined to make the most compelling argument . The job killing, that costs will rise to the consumer . Steve i think it is a job killer, it is very regressive, and i think you have a very thin margin industry to begin with. Set aside the border tax, you have an industry in peril today. Sector onment store the decline. Lots of things going on. This is just one more nail in what is a very difficult environment. Joe there is a view out there that ultimately it would not matter that much. Current seat would offset. The tax goes in but the dollar goes up so the imports that companies by would not change prices. You dont find that compelling . Steve it is a very theoretical discussion and it might take years. What you have is a retail that is bleeding. They would go from 1 billion in profit the 2 billion in losses. Thats how big a difference it makes. Scarlet hypothetically are there any pockets of the Retail Industry would have the ability to pass on the cost to their customers . That it isproblem is such a competitive environment and retail is so tough, you had very few of them. Maybe the highend retailers capacity on but it is very difficult for them to pass on the pricing. Scarlet julie talked about the Department Stores a bit. There is now speculation at hudsons bay will look to buy Neiman Marcus. Do you see a way to hudsons buying the Company Without taking on the debt . Richard baker is a creative guy and he may very well be able to find a way of taking it without the debt. I think it will be difficult but it can be done. It really depends upon the credit agreements that Neiman Marcuss debtholders half and whether or not they could take part on the dollar lesson 100 . Whether or not he could separate it. Time will tell and we will see whether he is the only bidder. But i think you have a difficult situation because the company is not worth anywhere near what was bought for by aries. The debt is very large. 4. 9 billion level. The business is probably earning about 450 million a year. Apply a multiple to whatever you want to use come up most of the industry is probably trading in the six thomas seven times multiples. It will be hard to support the debt. Im sure he is good to have to do it without assuming the debt. Marcus one thing neiman does not have on its side is a lot of real estate. Our departments or change just another real estate thing at this point . Steve it is a real estate play but at the end you have to run a retail business, and that is the problem. You have a lot of real estate go back to federated, where he sold the real estate or put it into another joint venture. In the end you have to direct. If the retail side of the business cannot pay rent, then you will end up in bankruptcy. That is the problem with a lot of these lbos. It is great if you have a growing business. It does not work if the business is declining. Joe we have seen all these brands be taken over by private equity. What has been the net effect on how they run the industry . Have they run them well, has accelerated or declined . Positive or negative . Steve i dont think it is positive or negative. A wellrun company in a private equity environment that is growing can do extremely well. There are a lot of exit a lot of Success Stories out there. He problem is the margin for error is slim. If you get into a declining environment, whether Neiman Marcus or j. Crew or the container store, i can give you an entire series of them. Youget into trouble because have levered the thing up enormously and if youre not getting Earnings Growth it is hard to make the numbers work. Scarlet a lot of people worry ehat retailers backed by p could be the next ground zero for a credit crisis. Are those concerns justified . Steve it is an individual company by company situation. You are going to have companies if you look at the creditworthiness of some of the lbo retailers it is as tough as times in the 2008l, 2009 frame. It has to do with which ones are not performing and have been levied up. As far as i can see it is not an industrywide issue. A chartlier we had showing that highyield retail debt is some of the worst reform worstperforming debt this year. Not surprising given the troubles of the industry. Here is the chart right here. You are talking about taking these companies on a casebycase basis. What would you look for amid the wreckage, so to speak, for a company whether it is because of the Balance Sheet or their business can make it out of this environment . Steve i think it goes back to the fundamentals can you get the business growing again . If even markets can grow earnings, you have a great turnaround story. I think all of them have to do with, can you get growth, can you great value for the consumer . There are retailers performing exceptionally well. Burlington industries, ross, there is whole series of valuefocused retailers doing well. Amazon is doing exceptionally well. You have to find a way to differentiate the product, value for the consumer, and to be built to compete with the amazons. If you are selling the same stuff that ever else is coming will go to the lowest common denominator, which is price. Scarlet all of that depends on who is leading the effort. Are there enough people in the industry who have that know how or do you have to import people from outside retail . Steve thats a great question. The Retail Industry is going to one of the toughest times it is ever seen. It needs to change quickly. Were talking about major sea change in terms of how people are just the issues. It is not business as usual and not incremental. I think there is talent within the industry but also outside thinking that could bring some new thinking to the party. You do have to be creative. At peopleps looking from the Digital Industry to try to come up with new strategies . Steve could be from the digital from the could consumer industry. I do not think it is from anyone industry. You cannot retread the thing retread the same thinking and when. Scarlet can you think of one retail chain that is winning, doing everything right and has a hold on his future . Steve tjx and amazon are heading it out of the park. Scarlet amazon definitely not your traditional retailer. Steve absolutely not. Joe thank you very much. Fromxt, we will hear cyprus ministers of finance and energy in the investment in the island country. This is bloomberg. Scarlet breaking news. Venezuelas state oil company is preparing for its president to leave his post by july. This is according to people familiar with the plan. The oil minister announcing martinez would take over and he would keep both titles. According to bloomberg reporting. They are said to be preparing of the exit of its president. Joe whatd you miss . Cyprian ministers were in new york attending among those in attendance were the minister of finance and minister of Energy Commerce and industry and tourism. Both join me for a conversation on investment. It is quite good, actually. The lasten difficult two years with this type of economy has achieved a remarkable recovery. A growth rate of 3 gdp. We operate with a balanced budget for the last two years. Things have improved significantly. The Banking Sector also has healed to a significant extent. We are good. Joe what would you characterize as a key drivers . There are other eurozone countries that continue to perform quite poorly economically after their bailout. What has made it work for cyprus . First of all we have some strong promising sectors like , businessd shipping services which have performed strongly. Also were very determined and focused on establishing and maintaining a probusiness economic environment. We have not been raising taxes. We have been lowering taxes and offering incentives to business. This has worked. It has delivered a strong rebound in the economy. Joe lets talk about energy. There is ongoing business for ongoing resources. What can you tell us about the latest round of bidding . We have concluded a third licensing round. We have managed to attract some of the biggest names of the industry. We have been able to award a block to exxon. Had to call from france total from france. This shows the potential of the cyprus economics him. Say ral i would dare it is fast becoming an alternative source of supply for the European Union. Just to give you a number to put that into perspective, so far we have had about 2000 billion cubic meters of discoveries. The eu in 2015 consumed about 415 bcm. You can see that while we have just started the discoveries, it could soon become an alternative source of supply and routes to the European Union. Joe one potential source of anxiety for anyone thinking of investing in cyprus is the ongoing the failed or stalled peace talks. How is that affecting business . There was hope on peace talks going into this year. They have since stalled. Where do things stand now and you see in them an Economic Impact from that . Were able to find a solution and to unify cyprus, obviously this would offer a huge boost to economic activity. Shows thatord finding good Investment Opportunities and ensuring an economy which is functioning and performing strongly is not dependent upon reunification. Still engaged are in an effort to achieve a , we has shown that the economy can achieve very good growth rates even without the solution. That is the main scenario. Be another, it will post. Joe that was part of my conversation with the cyprus minister of finance and the mr. Of energy, commerce, industry and tourism. Scarlet it is time for the Bloomberg Business flash. Well get some of the basis saudi arabia has last outputple in cruise aftertax income by 300 along for higher tax returns to shareholders and even the company a potential market value 1. 5e neighborhood of trillion. Theyre willing to offer 5 in what could be a record ipo. General motors rebuffed the proposal for a second class common stock. The rejection could set the stage for a potential adult with the money manager. They believethe it would boost shareholder value. His firm proposed gm introduced stock which would be entitled to the 152 is share dividend they paid annually. The board voted unanimously against the pitch. Tesla got a vote of confidence from china after the chinese internet giant acquired a 5 stake in the carmaker. Tencent is not johns fifth biggest shareholder. They got more than 8 million shares. And that is your business flash update. Programming reminder. On wednesday starting at 4 00 p. M. The whatd you miss . Team will take a deeper look at how the rise of populism is well speak with experts on naturalism from the room from around the world. You dont want to miss our special hour of programming. 4 00 on wednesday. Scarlet whatd you miss . Turns out consumers and drivers may not be getting the booth in gasoline prices they are accustomed to seeing. This is a chart of gasoline prices. Unlike in years past gas prices in 2017 are down. 2017 is the blue line which is truncated. The other lines show how gas prices performed in previous years. Typically there is a rise from january to april. This boxed in area. You do not see that seasonal trend this year. Committed to extending their output cut. Oil prices have fallen, u. S. Recounts have grown as well. We are looking for that to continue. People point out there have not been as many refinery kinks. Plenty of gasoline supplies. Inventory is stable. Demand has not been off the charts. , memorialngs work out day weekend you could be bank not too much for your guests. Joe i love your title. It says it all. I am looking at volatility. We awesome we often talk about the vix. This time im talking about realized volatility. In the last few days it seems like there is a lot of anxiety on the policy stuff going on. The market is not buying it. This bourdais measure of realized volatility is literally at its lowest level in 10 years. This chart goes back 10 years. Volatility during this time realized has never been lower. We have seen a couple vix jumps, market selloff a little, but actual volatility is not happening. We get between what people are talking about, the trump trade collapsing and reflation and concerns about policy, it is really not reflecting in the markets. As much as we tried to find a story. Scarlet it just goes to show the narratives are taking hold of the price action more than the price action dictating the narrative. Joe its just a lot of talk. Scarlet take a look at how stocks are performing right now. We less informative to go before the close you have a bit of a rally. Stocks have been zooming higher through most of the session. Within the dow i think there is only one the kleiner, johnson johnson. The s p 500 also getting. The nasdaq the laggard of the bunch. Market closes next. This is bloomberg. Scarlet we are moments away from the closing bell. Whatd you miss . The than ever. At joe if youre joining us live on twitter, we want to welcome you to our closing coverage every weekday at 4 00 p. M. Scarlet we begin with the market minutes, the rally. It is not like we have seen a lot of these days where there are solid gains across the board. Fromdefinitely a reversal yesterday, where we were talking about the trump trade, trouble. Scarlet absolutely. Come inside the bloomberg. All 11 groups are higher now. Utilities, the laggard here. They were negative earlier in the session. Bonds falling today. It goes in mind that utilities would falter as well. Financials, you can see the clear out performers up on the day. Appleshare is doing very well today. Reaching the intraday high in trading. Lets take a look at whether it closed at an actual high today. It appears apple did close at a record high today, getting as 2. 25 , the highest as far back as i did it goes. Darden also at a record high. It topped earnings estimates and selling cheddars kitchen. Carnival lifting its forecast. Tesla getting a boost after a stake. Basically part of the last fundraising effort, but nonetheless of both of confidence. Governmentk look at bond markets looking at the tenure across the board. Pretty significant moves over the last five days. Shooting up to 2. 41 today. You know this range just keeps oscillating. We hit the lower end of the range yesterday, and we keep bouncing up. Scarlet in terms of currencies, the dollar edging higher today. There is the index over the past five days. You see that sharp rise today. The dollar basically little changed to somewhat weaker. Of course the currency that we continue to monitor is the South African rand. It is on a twoday drop. A dramatic move came yesterday after president sulla withdrew his financial minister. Now the concern is that he will lose his job. Joe finally, on commodities, lets look around. In thisile oil has then range of 5253. Now it is a slightly lower range. Bit,selling off a little part of the general risk on move. Scarlet lets take a deep dive now in to the bloomberg. I look ahead to tomorrow. Brexitcially begin the process. It shows us where the barometer readys as they get used to start this negotiation with the eu that will likely last two years. The thing is everything except for inflation is made up of sub indexes updated in realtime. You can get a sense of where the economy is. The higher the number, the healthier the economy and vice versa. When you can see now is the u. K. Economy has held up much better than pundits expected. The trend in 2017 has been this progression higher. It is not as robust, obviously, in maythe brexit vote 2016. Over the fiveyear period, you can see a dramatic sense of where the economy has come down. Joe still, a lot better than what was expected. We should put a twoyear countdown clock on the bottom of the screen. This chart is stunning. Discovered by vince gold in rdc office. It is asking consumers, do you expect stocks to be higher a year from now . It is at the highest level since early 2000. Actually i think it is that the highest level since 2000. Com level optimism about the state of the stock market. Miss . You trade of the decade. Further gains still to come. Chief Investment Officer says that they remain a bargain. Chris joins us from Newport Beach great great to have you. In the immediate wake of the election we saw u. S. Equities rally sharply and everywhere around the world, particularly emerging markets get hit hard. This year it has been totally opposite. Emergency emerging markets are on a tear. Why have they done so well . Why do you think the longer story is still intact . The longer story is intact primarily because you are able to buy emergingmarket stocks at Bargain Basement prices. The most effective valuation metric for forecasting the marketrm return of the is the cyclically adjusted pe. Lets look at where that is for the u. S. Market. It is that 29, about as expensive as stocks ever get. The only time we had stocks 1929 and the tech bubble. Joe for viewers at home, were looking at it chart, we ask a showed this yesterday. S p 500 relative to emerging markets. Not exactly what youre talking about here, but really drives home the valuation gap. That is exactly right. The cyclically adjusted pe is only 12. That is not the levels that were below 10 last year when i said it was the trade of the decade but 12 continues to be extremely cheap. Now we have two additional factors that ought to give you confidence in emerging markets your profileo theyll portfolio. You have achieved market going up rather than achieved market going down. Also momentum is positive. A third leg of the stool, if you will, is cheap currencies. If any of your viewers have been traveling around the world they know that everything seems to be on sale outside of the united states. That is a strong indicator that the u. S. Currency is expensive. We are likely to get additional currency devaluation in emerging markets. Recentlyks having opened since 2010. Right. Scarlet i want to bring of the dollar element. We have a chart showing how emergingmarket stocks continue. O outperform to what extent it is held hostage to the dollaryen . I think people have been riskrned that there was a of emergingmarket depreciation as a result of the fed ending extraordinaryd of low interest rates. Mother is a grain of truth to this concern, reasoned to be concerned, specifically the memory of 1994 and the tequila crisis that prompted well, it was a fed tightening that prompted the crisis huge depreciation of largely central and south american currencies. Todays environment is much different. Was at the end of an Economic Growth cycle. The tightening was necessary to stamped down the economy. If you look at historically what has happened when the fed has begun to tighten is we see a broad rally in emergingmarket currencies. The economy is Getting Better and they begin to open interest rates, that is indicative of emerging markets, especially currencies. Joe basically every emergingmarket is green against the u. S. What we have seen with the South African brand, risk is to an issue. Out of nowhere you can have a plunge. The turkish, the philippine test so, how do you think about that risk that comes with emergingmarket investment . The way i like to think of it is markets are not perfectly efficient but neither are they crazy. They are actually quiet sensible. When you look at where the markets are provided you with the margins, it is generally in the countries with the markets that are most scary. The cheapest market by far is the russian stock market. By that level we would forecast at return a 15 . That could be 15 percent annually for the next 10 years. There is considerable uncertainty. It is precisely because russia is such a scary place to invest. Other places that are scary to invest would include turkey, where the have a huge political unrest and uncertainty, and brazil with the government is kind of falling apart as well. It is that kind of fear that creates be bargains and gives you the ability to make these investments. We have not seen this kind of fear an opportunity in emerging markets since the very late 1990s following the Asian Financial crisis and the default by russia on the local treasury bills. Ofrlet chris pratt and research affiliates. Stick with us. In the meantime, we have some headlines on frontier airlines. The company is looking to go public as soon as the second quarter. Jpmorgan, Deutsche Bank and ever core are the leading underwriters of the deal. Reporting. Ording to from new york, this is bloomberg. Mark i am mark crumpton. It is time for first word news. U. S. Airstrikes probably played a role in the death of dozens of livilians in basel mosu earlier this month. An Ongoing Investigation make more complicated expedition. According to officials in iraq one explanation is islamic militants were building explosives. Amnesty international today said the rising death toll suggested the u. S. Led coalition is not precautions that iraqi forces tried to retake the city. The start of a new era of Coal Production donald trump has signed an order to create new jobs. The president talked about a conversation he iraqi forces tro retake the city. Had with coal miners. Todays move makes good on mr. Trumps Campaign Pledge to unravel former president obamas plan to curb global warming. The house of representatives is roll backg whether to privacy rules. Isps say it is about showing users more relevant advertising. A vote is expected later today. Germany wants a hard commitment from the u. K. That it will not look to rignet, its your kit European Union bills during the twoyear period to exit the block. Germany stance reflects the fiscal and political risks having to step in once britain is out. The divorce bill could run as high as 65 billion. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is number. Bloomberg. Miss . whatd you inll with us, chris california. Mark was just talking about the u. K. And germany. I want to stick with your appeared. Like have identified opportunities in turkey, brazil, you mentioned that italy and spain are attractive now, but they are not emerging markets. Know, but they are priced like they are. It allows you to get returns that investors like to see from investments. You dont have to go to the frightening markets of italy and spain, the u. K. Is priced at less than half of the u. S. Market. The schiller is 14 versus 29 in the u. S. The halfprice means it is doubled the dividend yield. The dividend yield and the u. S. Is too, and in the u k, four. That is about average for developed equities. It is a wonderful time for investors to increase their diversification. Scarlet i want to highlight, we have a chart here that illustrates that. Europeex of u. S. Versus emerging markets. White. In blue is european markets. In yellow, emerging markets. Joe staying on cape and using it as a guide for once investment, people white. Blue is european markets. Say stocks can look overvalued for some time, it is not necessarily a market value tool. Is it important to invest in several markets at the same time to account for the fact that this measure is not going to call to terms perfectly . I think that is correct. Horizon isn the time probably equally important to diversification. The less diversified a market, the less useful a broad macro indicator like the cape will be. I would discourage people from saking concentrated that bet in individual markets, but a broadly diversified investment is a wonderful opportunity. Also, just as you said, it is a terrible timing tool. I think i read that ken fisher wrote a piece over the weekend talking about what a lousy the tape is. He is quiet right about that. If youre trying to figure out where to put a trade on for next year, you should not pay any attention to the longterm valuation metrics. Tape is. He is quiet right about that. If youre trying to figure out where toi do not have any good information about what you should Pay Attention to. I would say avoid turning gear portfolio. If you want to forecast what youre returns will be over five to 10 years, then these sorts of valuation metrics, whether a haveor pricetobook ratio proven to be very reliable guides for future returns. Joe you mentioned italy and spain and how they look kind of tomilar to year hims ems. One difference is they do not have currency flexibility. If you see a downturn in a place like brazil, you see the currency weaken. Does that make it a little more difficult looking at eurozone countries . Sword. S a two edged yes, you are right, from an economic perspective, it is a hindrance, at least in my judgment, that italy and spain have relinquished their monetary monetary the European Union. As an investor, it also takes away the currency risk. I will not say there is a currency risk in the euro, but the currency risk taken by euro denominated aspects is nowhere investing in of the brazilian real or turkish lira. Positive momentum. When people talk about momentum what is the difference in momentum investing and performance chasing . I think the biggest problem investors use thattum over the horizon mean provision operates. If you are a momentum investor, you are operating on a tight time horizon. Theres nothing wrong per se on momentum investing other than it is expensive. If you invest based on momentum over three to five years, you are doing exactly the wrong thing. Performance chasing is buying whatever has done well over the past 35 years. Momentum investing is writing the trend over months. Brightman from research affiliates. Fascinating stuff. Really appreciate you coming on. Scarlet because we are talking about europe, we will be dissecting britain and populism tomorrow. We will be asking who are the winners and losers of populism . What impact would have on the Global Economy . Towill put those questions three guests. Do not miss this special hour of programming at 4 00 on wednesday. This is bloomberg. Scarlet im scarlet fu. Whatd you miss . Lets take a deep dive into the bloomberg. Mine is less of a chart and more of a function. These are trends. There are different ways we can measure trends. This is another way of looking at it. Andnewsreader activity different topics over the past hour. Lets start with the past eight hours. Banking getting a lot of attention here. Politics does not really sure up for a while. That is not been the case. Just two years it two days ago it was at the top of the list. If you look at economy though, that is where politics shows up. Joe i feel we are in a weird. All lull the sentiment at board. This white line is the labor differential chart. It measures whether people believe jobs are hard to get what you did ticket. I have flipped it so when it goes down it is better. You see the perception keeps Getting Better and better. It is at the best level since the crisis. More people look at the labor market and thing, i can get a job right now. The blue line is the Unemployment Rate. It will not be a perfect parallel. It does move similarly. Perhaps the Unemployment Rate can continue to improve. Scarlet is this what for employment looks like . Joe joe it could be. Maybe it can get better. Scarlet that should be the natural followthrough. That has been very stubborn. Joe the one thing we want to see picking up still. Scarlet coming up next, we will speak to the Vice President of greeces new Democracy Party. We will get his thoughts on tomorrows brexit initiation and the impact that might have on his economy. From new york, this is numbered. Bloomberg. Martin im mark crumpton. I am mark mark crumpton. It is time for first word news. Coalition includes attorney general from california, massachusetts, illinois, washington and the district of columbia as well as chief legal counsels from several cities. Plan will harm the environment, health, and economies. President ping chinas meet with official. Candidates defended their flagship promise today. Acting on the currency would allow us to start conquering the and the rules dragging on our economies. It will not create inflation. For months and years it has been more concerned about deflation. Are aprilch elections 23 and may to a second. She wins, she will hold a referendum within six months. Gordhanid he will fire. Gordhan has tried to keep spending in check. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Scarlet lets get a recap of todays market action. Stocks rising with this only being the second gain in nine sessions. Recovering from a six week low. We also sell oil strengthen. A risk on day as Consumer Confidence jumped to much more than expected. Joe whatd you miss . Greece is preparing a second bailout review. Joining us now is Vice President greece new Democracy Party. About the current bailout process. How confident are you in the existing government that they will be able to get through this and have the next trench of money released . , they areeems now close. There is no doubt about it, greece will stay in the eurozone. We will stay in the eurozone. We made tremendous sacrifices to stay in the eurozone. Now, if you see our economy from a distance, you will see we have an economy with a surplus budget. Balanced economys future is bright. Will much tired, but we deliver. Joe here is the latest polling out of greece. New democracy would live would win by a landslide. It speaks to the fatigue of what we are seeing scarlet everywhere. Absolutely. People are fed up with the status quo. Just to be clear, new democracy will vote for the measures. Not vote forill the measures. Not believee does in the reforms. We will send a clear message to thathe lenders of broad are economy will take off. Thesemocracy believes in reforms. Be Prime Minister, these reforms will not only be voted, but implemented. No more cutting of the pensions and all these other things. What specifically, in your view to the government doubront . Do wrong . . Wasted a lot of time. Time is money. He does not understand that. That is why he is probusiness. That is why everyone can trust that when they hear election in greece, they have to come as soon as possible. Scarlet does that mean you will be asking for snap elections soon . Every day he says, i dont believe in the program. He says, i dont have true ownership of the program, but this program, in order to have success, you have to believe in it. The Prime Minister has to believe the reforms. He is delaying reforms, damaging the economy. It is a disgrace. In the seven years, you have to know that greek people have suffered a lot. Income of greeks has been lost. Lose moreave to because mr. Tsipras promised things he could not deliver. About debtversations relief, you believe it wouldve happened already . Yes, but it is not easy. You remember far keys and all the things he was saying . Ok. All the people were against us. This was very difficult. Now, mr. Tsipras is in a position that we are only helping him to pass the reforms. We have already voted that half of his laws, all the reforms that have come to our apartment, they have been voted on by new democracy. Scarlet we talk about this a lot as a metric of perception of the towards greece. Othero you and politicians in greece look at when it comes to economic or Financial Market metrics to determine whether or not greece is on the right track . Hope a staff level agreement will be done. At the end of may, the economy stabilized again. I think is a good time to buy. I do not think that mr. Siegrist has any other moved to make tsipras has any other moved to make. Scarlet Vice President of the new Democracy Party of greece. They give for joining us. Top of thete on populism way tomorrow. We will hear from the former ecb resident, italys former Prime Minister. This special hour of programming at 4 00 on wednesday. This is bloomberg. Scarlet lululemon will report earnings after the closing bell on wednesday. The backdrop here, the companys eagerness to move past missteps. Lets get a check on lululemons progress in this edition of the numbers do not lie. You can see a boost in the whole. Ports apparel Retail Industry lululemons sales rose 7 in the third quarter, marking a turnaround from the cells decline two years ago. The online sales growth outperforming the rick and mortar sales. Improvements should help bolster these performers further. While the line share revenue comes from the u. S. , planned expansion will provide an opportunity to add sales in asia. The blue bars. Growth expansion will be key in reaching the 2020 goals. You can see how marginal growth has improved in the down years. Investors will be listening for updates on the mens side of the business. We will be following these results when they are released after wednesdays closing bell. Joe whatd you miss . Follows a steep decline in marriage among adults. Themore, lets bring in professor from the receipt of california, san diego. Professor hanson, thank you so much for joining us. We know this trend of declining rates of marriage. You are trying to isolate the labor market contribution to that. What is the key finding of your research . What we looked at was how the decline of many fracturing had affected what economistss called the market for marriage and child birth outcomes in the united states. We were focused in particular on how expanded trade with china had induced john larson manufacturing, how the job loss had affected Economic Opportunities for men, relative to women, and how those outcomes in turn affected what was happening in terms of marriage and fertility. What we found is as jobs declined in manufacturing, as a result of expanded foreign competition, you compress wage differences between men and women. As the wage differences compress, qc marriage as being less likely to form. We interpret that as evidence of men becoming less desirable marriage prospects. Havewomen more likely to children outside of marriage. Scarlet do we know why the whether either side wants to get married less or it isnt an fortunate unfortunate consequence . We think about the way the labor market environment affects the formation of households. Obviously a lot more goes into this. I am a father myself and has been. I understand family life is a rich tapestry. As economists, we look at the way that changing Economic Opportunities change the decisions that individuals make about how they structure their lives. All we can really say is that when pay differences between men and women compress, for whatever reason, and we focus in particular on how increasing competition affected those pay differences, that you see families less likely to form. Mechanisms at work are a bit more complicated. But we understand is when you make mens earnings decline relative to women, that affects how families operate. Joe your research throws shows the gap between men and women make is narrower in service relative to manufacturing and in those environments, marriages are less likely to form. There is something unique about the pay gap between men and women that is more prevalent in thatufacturing economy induces people to get married in larger numbers. Thats right. That is a great summary of our results. Theres Something Special about manufacturing. Manufacturing is one of the few sectors that offers high paying high schoolle with diplomas or less. It is also a sector where pay opportunity for less skilled, less educated men are more abundant. As those jobs disappear, as a consequence of technological change and increased import competition, what you will see is declining opportunities for high incomes by these less educated young men, and hence, decreasing opportunities in the marriage market. Scarlet joe there has been a lot of talk about the halloween out of the manufacturing sector, particularly Middle America and the rust belt. To receive this same marriage trends map out to wealthy places, places where people make a lot of money in the service sector, but because that is not this wage gap, the need for people to get married is not as prevalent . If you look at marriage rates by say, education rates and we know that individual incomes are strongly correlated to the education you are you go back a couple of decades, to 1980, and it was less educated folks who marrieds likely to get than those with a College Education. That flipped in the late 1990s or thereabouts. Today, what has been the case what has now become the case is those with a College Education are more likely to get married. Those rates have been falling across the board for less educated and more educated individuals but they stopped dropping for the high educated a decade ago. Scarlet with donald trump pushing for a return of those manufacturing jobs to the heartland, does that mean that we might expect a return to more traditional marriage trends . I dont think so. What President Trump has talked about doing, if it action gets to the point of increasing barriers on imports coming in from the united states, what that may do, if he does in fact succeed in getting those quite drastic changes implemented would involve bringing manufacturing production back to the united states, but that is different from bringing the jobs back. The jobs that left as a result of technology and increased competition were 20thcentury jobs. The jobs that would come back our 21st century jobs. Those would be ones that involve far less employment per dollar output. Gordon hanson of the receipt of california san diego, thank you. This is bloomberg. Scarlet whatd you miss . Firsteleased its diversity report today. The Ridesharing Company looks i got a lot of other tech companies, mostly white, mostly male. Last year pushed Big Tech Companies to publish diversity data and take steps to close the gender pay back. She is getting more pushback. I sat down with natasha for todays walk the talk. We were fairly surprised, actually. We filed proposals with citibank, wells fargo, bank of america, jp morgan, and American Express and mastercard. They are all opposing it. We have seen a night and date response between Technology Companies week engage with last year and how the banks are approaching it. We know that is a big gap in finance. In fact, female Financial Advisors have the largest gap. They make . 61 on the dollar versus men. We know that if you can close that gap, he removes one of the structural barriers that is keeping women from moving up the the latter. Scarlet i wonder why there is such a big difference in the response from tech firms and banks. It is a surprise. When you think of it in terms of diversity, we have some east coast versus west coast going on. There was some resistance when we went to the Technology Companies to start. We filed a proposal with ebay and they opposed it, the board opposed it. It went to a vote of shareholders and got only an 8 vote. If you fast forward to last year, 2016, we filed the same proposal with Nine Companies including ebay. Company after Company Negotiated with us, decided to put out the data. Some took longer than others. Others did it immediately, like payl, saying they had 100 equity, and reported that for the second year in a row. Im sure they were adjustments when theyen the time came out with the reports. They generally looked all pretty good. The impression from stakeholders you are doing a good job, being transparent, and being accountable to investors and employees. Scarlet i like the fact that you brought up maybe they were buying some time to get the numbers more ballots. That certainly may be one argument. You talked about how the companies negotiated with you. What did that look like . That was a series of conversations. First we filed the proposal, then we had a number of conversations with the companies. After a series of backandforths, they came to the realization that this was not only the right thing to do but also there was a Business Case to do so. There was only one company last year that fox the proposal fo ught the proposal. I was amazon, they went to the fcc. They may both a ridiculous and losing argument. Of course, amazon then looked terrible because they went to fcc to block a proposal asking them to close the gender pay gap. That did not work very well, especially after all of their peers started doing it. We like to see the same thing happen with all the big banks. There is no reason to keep holding the Technology Companies to one standard and the banks to another. Scarlet what has been the response from shareholders at these firms . Have any of them reached out to to yourndicated support proposals . What happened to ebay over the course of two years, the first year there was an 80 vote of shareholders. The second year it was seen as a competitive issue and the proxy advisors saw that as well. 51 ctually ended up with a vote in the spring of 2016. Just enough. Frankly, even if it is not a majority vote, it sends a strong signal to management. The same day, the ceo came out and said they would fix the problem. We expect we will have support from other investors like we saw last year. Tomorrow, british Prime Minister theresa will send a letter to the eu officials, starting that junior that to your negotiation. If you want more analysis on what brexit means for the Global Economy, join us for tomorrows special on populism starting at 4 00 p. M. , 9 00 p. M. Anchor lets start with a check of your first word news. Present trump signed an executive order to roll back to clean power plan. Former president obamas signature policy to lower u. S. Rate house gas emissions. Mr. Trump says the order will create jobs and marks a new era and energy production. New yorks attorney general is leading a coalition of 23 states and counties mobilizing against the order. The coalition includes attorneys california, massachusetts, illinois, washington, and the district of columbia, and district and officers from several cities. Neil gorsuch is opposed after three senators said he would vote against. Republicans won him confirmed before the recess in april. A lawyer for form your equity ag sally yates claims the administration tried to limit her testimony at a hearing regarding russian interference. The hearing which included john brennan and James Clyburn was canceled by devon nunes. He is dismissing calls for him to step aside from the investig