Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20151208

Lets get straight to our top story this morning. Angloamerican shares sinking as dividend suspended its about the 4. 7 billion. Miners are among the biggest losers on the ftse this year. For more, lets bring in our mining analyst and jodie lynch from schroders. Great to have you with us. The worst kept secret in the city was Anglo American. The other news is the disposals. There is a lot of it is outside the actual dividend story, isnt there . In this environment, youre always going to see a reorganization of these kinds of companies. It will just be anglos, it will be rio, php. Bhp. No surprise that the dividend is cut, and that goes for a different dividend policy going forward. Jonathan heres a diversified miner. On the other side, you have the bhp, withio and th much lower cash cost. Went to we get to a point, where is the line in the sand for the bhp . Dend at rio and th i think rio will hang on. They will want to set themselves apart. They are a lowercost producer and better focused and the commodities, a safer place for investment. Anglo is more diversified, it carries more risk. But with that, there are more opportunities. You have more exposure to south africa, o although there is less about. They have done a excellent job of reorientated that portfolio. Somebody called me the other day and said about what about lying anglo for takeover what about buying anglo for takeover potential . What about buying debeers, selling off i think there will be people assessing it. It is a good scenario. Its not necessarily what angle wants, but it would work. Jonathan you spoke to mark over the summer. They said it would be rough and he nailed it. Here is an amendment that knew it would be rough but still had to cut the dividend. My question is this. He wants of income. It was there in energy and it is still. The miners are facing the pressure of the dividend. Where is the bottom for you . When do you start thinking about a longterm horizon . Thats pretty longterm. You can probably start trying to layer it now. Youre never going to be able to find the bottom of these things to the day, and what we are seeing is that the pain is now widespread. 60 70 for the year, as the world is still going to need iron ore. We are still going to want gold and copper. These are the companies that will produce it. Under any but dont circumstances go all in now. Bit in now, bit in in a couple months. Somewhere down the line, that is much safer than trying to call it exactly. Jonathan he mentions the m a play. Can you really make an m a play your managing and equity port olio . And equity portfolio . At m a as the icing on the cake and not the cake itself. Buy good businesses that we like for their fundamentals, then someone else comes along and says, i agree, that is a brilliant business, id like 100 of it. Than we would have a discussion on the price. But trying to run an event driven fund, trying to predict where m a is going to happen, that is a very different skill set to mine. Butont play that game, there are people who play that game very well. Its just not my skill set. Jonathan thats the m a story. Lets talk about the go out of business story, the bankruptcy story. We spoke to the ceo of rio tinto earlier this year. He told bloomberg a 30 iron ore was fantasyland. But we are at the door of fantasyland. He followed that up by saying that if we go down that, our cash costs are 19, their breakeven is around 30 mark. They said it would be a lonely place. Do we need to see bankruptcies . The market looks at bankruptcy scenarios, particularly with glencore and the higher debt levels. If we go back to anglos debt levels, 12 billion going to 10 islion, cutting the dividend just one of many steps and measures they can put in place. I dont think we will see any risk with those big miners, but smaller guys, sure. There will be casualties there, especially going into production. Jonathan Gina Rinehart is going into production. 60 Million Metric Tons annually. What do you think . She could well be a casualty. She wont take me for saying it, but she is at risk. That is why iron ore prices have suddenly dropped. They are just bringing iron ore into market . Jonathan you and i talked about the industry so much. The miners are cutting the dividends. The Energy Majors have not. What happens in 2016 to energy . I think some of them will have to start looking at whether the dividends are sustainable. Maybe they do the ageold trick of moving it to part cash, part shares as a way to pull the wool over peoples eyes that this is a dividend cut by another name. If crude oil stays in the 40 range, that will be hurting a lot of the majors. Jonathan just a point out this tuesday morning, one hour and six minutes into the session, Anglo American now trading lower by 627 . By 6. 27 . That is what striking down the ftse. Heres whats happening in the rest of the program and what else is on our radar. Crude has rebounded slightly after plunging more than 5 yesterday to a sixyear low amid speculation that the global glut will continue after opec abandoned its strategy of limiting outputs to control prices. Going for some heavyweight names in an effort to reassure its clients. The Company Announced that ben bernanke and gordon brown and jeanclaude trichet will all part of a new Global Advisory board. Fortify billing to gross. Is to be removed from the cac 40 on december 21. Taking its place will be the Shopping Mall operator. Edf, whose price has fallen 45 over the last 12 months, will be relegated to the cac next 20 index. Miners under pressure. Chinese imports fall for a record 13th straight month. The latest data from the worlds secondlargest economy. And dont miss the conversation with the former bp ceo, amanda know something about a crude rout. We will talk to him about that in less than 30 minutes. Jonathan welcome back to the pulse. Good morning from a cloudy, dreary london. Ftse is lower, Anglo American suspending the dividend. They are increasing the disposals target, not great news for investors. Stocks down by over 8 . Another concern for them is what happens in asia. The trade numbers are out this morning, not pretty. Exports falling for a sixth month in november well the import slump extended to a record 13th. A. Ts talked to end we see this month after month after month. What is the message in the data this morning . Enda good morning. Yet another disappointing set of numbers. And especially disappointed because after eight stimulus efforts, six Interest Rate cuts, and a raft of measures by the government to promote lending, the economy hasnt turned a corner and it is hard to see where the Circuit Breaker is. There was even more disappointment because the u. S. Market had been holding up exports all year. Japan and the eurozone, even shipments to the u. S. Fell off. Not a great sign going forward. On the import side, there is a price effects from commodities. Some people point to perhaps there are signs of pickup in demand, but the euro growth story is still pretty subdued in china. Jonathan enda, the trade numbers, we have to start looking at volume versus price. That is all have heard. Wellat what you think as dont look at the price of the big commodity story . . Enda well, volumes in a good get are holding up. You can talk about iron ore the priceat shock that hasnt had much of an effect. In its not to say that terms of the import numbers today they are better than some expected. Its not to say that there are some signs of demand. We know the consumer understands and is coming along. It is not enough to fill enough by older growth drivers. Perhaps that is what people think will feature greater demand and have the import side of the story going forward. Jonathan enda, they thanks as always for joining the program. Sticking with asia, some not so good news out of china, decent word form abenomics. Japan avoided recession in the Third Quarter and lets get more with Jodi Schneider in tokyo. Thanks for joining us. A big upward revision. First question, what was behind it . Jodi a number of things. It meant that the economy here did not go into recession, as had been thought. Two quarters of contraction but this was a quarter of growth. It was a number of things. The Capital Expenditure number was higher, the Capital Spending number was up, Consumer Spending was up. Inventories of better than expected. It was a big swing, however there is still some concern among economists that even though this is better and there is not a recession that the investment in the economy, the Business Investment here in terms of wages and investment in japan as opposed to overseas, is not what it should be, especially given the very strong stock market gains that companies are getting. Jonathan jodi, there was a headline about the optimism around his story, his reforms, hit pretty hard by the prospect of two recessions. We dont get that second recession in the data this morning. What does this tell us about the broader economy and the challenges for abe . Jodie well, i think you are right. Obviously this is good news for him, but it still is not the kind of news he needs in terms of growth going forward. This is still pretty tepid growth. And its also about the wages and the investment in the economy. He has been really pushing for that Investment Income these have not been making it. Economists are telling us that they think in the Fourth Quarter there will be growth, that we will be looking forward to some growth. They say the strength of that growth is still an open question, and it looks like abes administration will continue to do some extra budget, extra spending to try and keep reviving that growth. Jonathan Jodi Schneider, ray to have you with us. Andi lynch is still with us. Andy, the top three economies in the world, the u. S. Prospect of the rate hike, japan flirting with recession, and then you have got the china slowdown. These are big red flashing lights in the trade numbers. Is there a big red flashing light on the bloomberg terminal, based on whats happening in asia . I think there is a structural world economyhe is lacking a bit in demand. Have asense that we seven year recovery, and by historical standards, that is towards the upper end of how long the recovery goes for. But thehad some losses, next step for the u. S. Is down, but we are getting old in this recovery. Jonathan one of the things in the last five, six years is that the market can stay divorced for longer than you think. I dont see the data looking that great. Do you take a different view on Japanese Equities . Selectively . I think there are some very good, highquality companies i japann, particularly in niche, specialty engineering. Japan has a great reputation over the last 40, 50 years. With the weakness of the yen, abenomics, the money printing program, they are doing well. They have become extraordinarily competitive on world markets, and those companies are doing really well. Hedge theanies may be thinking that the bank of japan will push the yen down further. I think it has a very interesting opportunity in those highqualityng, businesses that japan does well in. Jonathan you and i talked china before. Zer direct exposureo to the china story in your portfolio. What is your push back . I think the push back we have isthat, at the moment, china doing exactly what we all asked them to do two years ago. Rebalancing the economy away from export driven commodity focused growth, toward a more internal domestic demand story. Basically becoming a more developed economy. The problem is that the transition from one side of the valley to the other side of the valley could be quite bumpy, and that is what we are seeing at the moment. The transition is clearly happening. We are seeing consumer demand growing faster than gdp, industrial productions lower than gdp. They are doing the right thing, but it is a very difficult act to pull off. The concern is that there will be a few bonds along the way. Jonathan great to have you with us. , we will talk crew. Up next, we will talk crude. We will talk energy with brent, bouncing off a sixyear low, and wti with a it has been a question for some time if it is a cartel, but right now it is not a cartel by any definition. Tradet is is a fractious association that cant agree on basic matters. Ginathan that was daniel yer talking opec just yesterday. Brent crude bouncing off a sixyear low this morning, wti below 40 yesterday. We are trading at 37 this morning after opec effectively abandoned its strategy of limiting prices. Are joined now, stewart why are we still talking about opec . We cap to reaching for new lows yesterday. You are looking at some of the positioning, and people keep asking, where is the low . Its anyones guess. If you look at history, we could go up 10. That is not a forecast, just stating where was previously. We are at a stage where we are looking at cost of production and supply and demand. It is almost pointless. Its about sentiment, how can you drive this price and do you need a reason for it . This has been a great trade for anyone that has been short. Jonathan the shortterm market moves, the technicals of whats happening. People still talk about the fundamentals, and the number i keep hearing is 20. It is finger in the air stuff, isnt it . We dont know what the line in the sand is. It will be different for different places. What are you hearing . It is all over the place, and it is not just the cost of production. Its about what is the appetite amongst an individual producer . How much pain can they take . Fine, you can say cost of production is 10, 20. Potentially, could they stomach prices below that for a long period of time . Maybe if they take the calculation in the longterm. You cant look at Cost Reduction and say that is as low as it can go. , you lookandy at the chaotic mess that was vienna. You have convictions about the Energy Stocks already. They perform like you thought . You did. It did. Look at what is happening in paris now with the conference on climate change. If we get any kind of agreement stricta price on carbon, carbon intensive energy, as the saudis famously said, people ran out of stones. It probably wont end because you run out of oil. You have clean energy coming down and cost, and opec thinking maybe, we fully got 25 years to monetize this, therefore we better monetize our stuff rather than letting the americans with deep oil offshore take some of these resources that we are going to get. I think it has gone from lets keep prices up to we need to have as much market share while we have the time to remain, while there is still a demand. Jonathan as an investor, how do you manage that . Stay actors, keep pumping more,. Is that something you think about . Its certainly something we think about. Owny portfolio, we dont many oil service companies. In a world where they may not have business in 10 or 15 years, if share prices still arent cheap enough to value them on the earnings they generate in the next 10 years, there may well come a time where they are now cheap enough and im happy to own them, but we are not there yet. Jonathan great to have you with us. Always a privilege and pleasure. As opec fails to control supply and crude hits below 40 per barrel. We speak to a man who ran bp for 12 years and know something about the crude rout. Jonathan good morning and welcome back to the pulse live in the city of london. I am Jonathan Ferro in for Francine Lacqua this morning. The ftse 100 lower. Miners weighing that index this morning. Chinas exports fell for a fifth months and november and a slump in imports extended to 13 months leaving a surplus of 54 billion. The slowdown means chinas industrial plants need less iron ore and coal. A Nobel Laureates says europes economic prospects is worsening. A severe danger that the European Union could buckle under the pressure of the refugee crisis. Has received a shot and the arm after revised gdp data shows that japan avoided recession and the last quarter. The economy grew 1 through september rather than shrinking 0. 8 . Now to bloomberg first word. For more on these stories had to the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg. Com. Jonathan saudi arabia continues to increase production. Opec fails to increase supply. Who better to speak to about learning from the at than the mn who ran bp. I want to welcome him in. Lorde brown. Hes written a new book called connect. Through therunning Energy Sector right now. But we are going to start with what is happening in the commodity market. Crudean, had dollar upwards of 100. Does it remind you of the 1990s . John in the end it is, of course, about opec. Its looking to maintain its market share. For all the reasons it had in the 1980s when it was backed into a corner and kept losing its market share. So nothing surprising there. And what we see in the short term is really a function of interruptions if there are any a nd demand. It has to be strong to absorb the large, excess production in the market at the moment. Jonathan youre a man that knows something about dodgy crude forecasts. Analystsd to find two who agree on what the prices going to be. You know what is like to manage a multibillion dollar company. You do not have a crystal ball to forecast crude. What did you learn from the late 1990s that you think is a lesson for this period . John you did learn you cannot forecast the price of crude. You have to think about the risk. Where are you as a producer on the supply curve . How low are your costs and where do you think you rank in the order of production. That isas running bp exact what we did. And got out of some high cost areas and may should we stayed out of them. The problem is when the price of oil goes up, everybody thinks everything is possible. And rather than think of the value of a barrel of oil peak, people of a barrel of oil, people think about the value. Strategy is to maintain volume and tried to protect the dividend at all costs. The longterm consequences of the current strategy of the oil majors as they look at the reality of 40 crude . To be a veryd has important thing in the stock that is so mature. So, they have to think very carefully about the level of investment they undertake in these environments. And that is an indication about the future, because long run investment will surely drop. The amount of oil being developed, will reduce not only over time but in the long run will impact. Jonathan on friday, article after article after article talking about the confirmation of the death of opec. I am interested in what you thought when that meeting finished reading the news. What are your views on opec . John it was exactly as i expected, that that would be consistent with the ministers point that market share was going to be maintained. That they were going to produce the oil and lets see what happens. It is all about what other people do and about demand. And they have been there before. So, it does not surprise me. In 2015, if i sat here a lot of people were talking about more m a. Deal volume has been low. What you make of that . Do you think he could turn up . John people always think it is going to get better in the future. But if youre in the oil business, you have to believe in a great future. Otherwise you give up. So, people take a lot of time to adjust expectations. I think expectations may adjust faster nowadays. Communication is better. More analysts in the market. Or people wanted to get better returns more people running to get better returns. It will take some time still. Jonathan we have got to head winds. The crude price, the price of a barrel of oil that you taken out of the ground. Then you have got the elephant in the room which is cop 21. Been struck by how serious investors are taking this when they look at the Energy Majors for the last fortnight. What i will say is that this is something you pushed when you rent bp ran bp. There is a distinction between Energy Majors in europe and the view of the Energy Majors in the u. S. Do those differences need to reconcile . John they do. The oil majors are not the only actors in this piece. If they do not lean into the problem and go with society, something will happen. It is better to be around the table discussing your future than allowing someone else to discuss it in your absence. So, i think they have to come along. There will be a difference if they dont conform. Short run it will be great for the oil majors in the u. S. And bad for europe. And maybe the other way round in the long run. You have written about this radical change about how the Energy Majors lean into society. I look at the situation right now and i see the European Oil Majors meeting in paris trying to do something about this. The u. S. Oil majors sitting on the sidelines. The European Oil Majors, can they do this in isolation at a time where people are going to start looking at these assets at a decent price and start picking them up . If im a company, if you were running bp now, would you be plugging a lot of money into how you go green or plugging the money into trying to boost your volume, boost your market share and pick up the assets on sale right now . John i think you would always look at the developing market and say i really want to get to becauseer in carbon, one day am going to have to pay for the carbon i produce. So oil is different. Gas is different to coal. You would have to make yourself up appropriately mix yourself up. The other thing you do is you report you support research. Alternative energy is permitted. There is plenty more to do. Alternative energy is primitive. It is good for the oil majors. They need to work much more in capturing carbon and doing something with it, storing it or using it, and making sure that methane does not leak which is very damaging if it happens in the system of production. Jonathan we have people sitting around the table. Midstream, the downstream and the diversified oil major spirit i hate to use this word but i used it earlier do we need to see some bankruptcies, some consolidation so we can achieve what we want to achieve on the green side and production . John i think you will see different changes in different parts of the industry. The Utility Companies are changing. Look at germany where they have had to change the energy. And their financial situation is very different today than it was in the past. Think the main point i would say about oil and gas and Energy Companies is they are like every company. If you do not go with society, you have got a lot of your value at risk. It is a point everyone is making now. You have got to do something about it. When volkswagen apparently, apparently did something wrong with their pollution controls their price dropped by 30 . But my book says is that is the average you should expect if you break your bond with society. Jonathan im going to put you on the spot. Late 1990s, we made this move to 10. You sat there running bp. You and i had this conversation. The economist said five dollars a barrel. Did not happen. We approach 100 a barrel. We go into next year and i know you do not want to predict crude prices im going to ask you Something Like that. You looked into next year, the burn curve. Down by 60 at the moment the brent curve. Risk that people are getting a very wrong all over again . John it really isnt possible to say. I think like this. Theave 17 years in 1990s, it averaged in real terms about 35 a barrel in brent. We have also observed another era where price of oil of 100 allowed everyone to do everything a little recklessly. So, somewhere between the two has to be probably the answer. I have no idea where it is going to be. But i tell you the most important thing in the Energy Business is to prepare for all eventualities. I think you have got to do that. But im not going to predict. Jonathan final question. The parallels between the opec situation and what is happening in iron ore. Ironanalysts said that 30 ore is fantasyland. Is 20 crude fantasyland . Nothing is run, impossible. Long run 20 is probably wrong. But that is as far as i would go. Jonathan good to have you with us this morning to the former ceo of bp and the author of his new book connect. Thank you for joining us. Up next, a sweet deal. In talks to buy a telecom assets. We bring you the details next. Jonathan welcome back to the pulse. All in the city of london. The ftse 100 lower. The mining index fresh off decade lows. A 2004 low. You know the mining story. Heres your Bloomberg Business flash. Nejra shares and smith wesson onched an 8 year high investor expectation that gun enthusiast will buy more pistols and rifles as calls for restrictions increase. The Company Shares of advance in the wake of Mass Shootings like the one in california last week. Morgan stanley has named david as a top treasury traitor. He will add the title to his position as the head of u. S. Swaps. The news c omes as the bank plans to cut its staff. Woodside petroleum abandoned its bid. It wouldve been the Biggest Energy takeover in asia. And pimco is going for heavyweight names in an effort to reassure his clients. The Companies Announced that former fed chief ben bernanke, former british Prime Minister gordon brown, and former ecb head Jean Claude Trichet will be part of a new advisory board. Pimco oversees 1. 5 trillion and is seeking to fortify its ranks after the departures of Mohamed Elerian and bill gross last year. For more on the stories, head to the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg. Com. Jonathan i really want a seat around that pimco table with gordon brown, ben bernanke, trichet, but we can talk about that later. The big corporate story this morning orange said to be in talks. Joining us to talk about the attentional deal is our deals reporter ruth david. We talked about this earlier. I think it is fascinating. They have both got their own pressures. It is hard to gauge who needs the deal more. Lets Start Talking about the potential for an actual the. Where are we at the moment . Ruth it is pretty earlystage talks. And this could take a while. Out, when we were speaking about this earlier, one of the things they have to talk about now is the regulatory, antitrust issues. If you remember, in june when they rejected an offer economy minister says why not invest more in infrastructure instead of indulging in deal making . That is the environment. Jonathan in terms of regulatory hurdles, we talked about this, if they found a price lets say they both come together they are under pressure. I would like a deal. Orange decides they need more growth. They push it through. They find a price. Do the regulators let it happened . Ruth that is the 1 billion question. Had to Danish Companies looking to emerge and the Competition Commission said no. So they had to scrap those plans. But one thing that we are seeing in france, and it is not just we are seeing other companies talk because there is a lot of chatter about conversions. So convergence. Through your television and telecom channels. And how do you ensure you have scale. The consolidated jonathan dh deal volume in telecoms, how much is left in the story, this pipeline at the moment . Ruth it still seems like there is quite a bit left because you have seen some of what is happened. You have everything bp. It acrossnot seen your. Some may be there is more to happen in other markets as a. I do not think this is done yet. Jonathan keeping her busy. Our deals reporter at bloomberg. Up next, the pulse. Getting your caffeine kick. Coffee maker keurig agrees to a takeover. We break down the deal, the details and the billionaire owners behind it after the break. My message to you on this message new york is that britain has got its mojo back. And we are going to, we are going to be with you as we reassert western volumes, confident that our best days lie ahead. Jonathan that was George Osborne. Very happy judge George Osborne speaking in new york yesterday. The chancellor spoke about the crucial issue with britains relationship with the European Union. Britain is not part of some of the central e. U. Projects like the single currency, the euro, nor the common border area. An dthe European Union as devised does not provide for a large member state, the secondbiggest economy in europe, the secondbiggest budget,tor to the e. U. Sitting outside of the central arrangements. Of yet that is the situation the british people. We need to make sure these arrangements work better for britain and work better for those who are trying to make their currency, the euro, stronger. Jonathan that was George Osborne in the u. K. The headlineory in the commodity market. Mark barton has been charting the bloomberg terminal. Mark lets start with china because exportimport data continuing. Fallingook at the msci for a fifth consecutive day. It is down by 3 . Emerging markets having to contend with weak china data, falling Commodity Prices and the prospect upon u. S. Interest rates. This index is on track for its lowest close since october. Crude Oil Rebounding after sinking yesterday. Crude oil falling by five point 8 yesterday. Lowest level in 16 the, in six years, excuse me, after opec abandoned its strategy of limiting output to control prices. 37. E ended yesterday at 75. The next signal is 33. 98. That was the closing fries on february 12, 2009. And we cannot talk about commodities without talking about this company sinking to a record low today. Anglo american scrapping its dividend for the first time in six years to counter a collapse and commodities. Shares falling to a record. The payouts for the second half of this year and for next year have been suspended. Buts battling Metals Prices has sunk to the lowest levels in six years. Other measures it has measures include shedding jobs and selling assets. That has not stop shares shedding 70 , the worst year on record. And by the way, to compound the misery for the commodities, the bloomberg Commodity Index has fallen to its lowest level since 1999. There seems to be red everywhere. Jonathan hunting for the bottom. Mark barton, great to have you with us. Coming up with that market close europe. E in do not miss that. 4 30 u. K. Time. Looks like austrias wealthy family is on the caffeine fueled quest to rule the coffee world. The Investment Firm that manages their fortune has acquired keurig Blue Mountain for 13. 9 billion. That keeps Devon Pendleton business. She is here to talk about the consolidation. First of all, these billionaires. This is always money. The deals are under the radar. They are under the radar. Strip this back about this starte this story. Devon there are really only for billionaires. Small company. They are on a tear recently. Perfumee acquired a maker and then particular going back to coffee they have spent 30 billion over the past four years just on coffee. They are trying to build an empire. Petes coffee ntn u. S. And master brewer. Quite big names. Jonathan look at those numbers. A 10 billion deal. A 14 billion deal p are they going to keep this up . Devon probably yes. What theyre looking at is nestle. It is the biggest competitor to the keurig, the capsules. So nestle clearly has the biggest market share. And they are after that. They want to take them over. Jonathan im going to ask you a silly question as i sit here with a third mug of coffee. Why coffee . Devon who does it like coffee . Doesnt like coffee . Coffee like other grocery items that may have sugar, they are falling out of favor. You see taxes being imposed by government. Consumers are becoming more aware. Coffee does not have that. It has a halo of health. Everybody loves it. Cuts across cultures. It has just been really popular and there is still room for growth. Jonathan Devon Pendleton, big corporate story, big deal with some big billionaires. Thank you very much for joining us this morning paper those listening on bloomberg radio, the first word is up next. For our viewers, bloomberg surveillance is up next. Guy johnson in for Francine Lacqua. Alongside tom keene over in new york. 56 minutes until the session. If you are waking up on the wall street, the headline and the Commodity Markets the bloomberg Commodity Index at a 1999 low. Hammered. Ners getting Anglo American suspending their dividend. The ftse off by 35 points. That is it from me and the bloomberg team. Best of the what best of luck for the rest of your day. Miners brace for more pain. Anglo american dropping to an alltime low. The bloomberg Commodity Index hits a 1999 low. We are going to look at the applications of 40 bucks a barrel on oil and iron ore. And chinas trade slump. Export slide for a fifth straight months and imports decline for a record 13 straight months. Good morning. This is of course bloomberg surveillance im