Clocks i dont think it is haunting. It is always going to be something that happened. You have a very clean conscience. The reason is i know i did my job right. Wilson is the subject of a Justice Department investigation. Prosecutors say the government is unlikely to charge him with violating the shooting over civil rights. In hong kong, prodemocracy protesters and one of the biggest shows of force in two months. They cleared a key protest site and attain student leaders. Detained student leaders. Saudi arabias oil minister says theres no need for opec nations to reduce output. He said Falling Crude prices will stabilize on their own. Opec nations meet tomorrow in vienna. The meeting discussions failed to result in cuts. Oil prices down 30 since june. Amazon says forget about black friday, think couch commerce. The first time, amazon is offering holiday deal that you can only get on your table or off your smart phone. Ate will be announced midnight tomorrow. Thanksgiving has become the fastestgrowing day for online sales. You have to get to the phone. Back to be difficult if your travel plans involve airplanes and east coast today. You better have a good book to read or be of the shop on amazon. Theres a proverbial calm before the storm. Manhattan, gorgeous. Balmy temperatures, but new york expected to get hit iron noreaster. It may stretch from North Carolina to maine. Inland. Inches inches in some places. Those are our top headlines. Lets do a data check. Everything is open today . Yes. There are not a lot of people in, but it is open. Futures up 2. Nymex crude plunging yesterday. 74. 26. On to the second page. Rubel at 45. Opec tension. Move, weaker on the russian ruble. Brent european oil, good morning, london, and nymex crude with a four dollar differential. 78 and change and 74 and change. We need a refill good we need a feelgood on thanksgiving. For go u. S. You enthusiasm. This is the state of americas 50 year experience. Things all in all our better. This is real gdp per capita, per person, per capita. Here we are in 1980 back in my youth. Inflationadjusted, per capita gdp is really migrating up and really exceeded this financial crisis. That doesnt say anything about the separation the bifurcation between the haves and havenots. One group of americans are still struggling. It really shows the good. The Movement Overall when you look at the median, we will explore a little bit about what it means for the divided america. It is a great thanksgiving. The red sox have two major leaguers they just acquired. Panda from the San Francisco giants . My husband is in mourn over thating. Opec. Oil ministers arrive in vienna before the opec meeting. We go to vienna. If you look at the Bloomberg News story, saudi arabias oil minister said crude prices will stabilize. The uae says opec will do what it takes to balance a market. Predicting the group will reach consensus. Theres a lot of tension and very little agreement. Thats right. At the end of the day, i think it is fair to say it is the oil minister of saudi arabia within opec that really calls the shots. He said this morning after his daily speed walk to reporters he sees no need for saudi arabia to cut, the u. S. To cut or for anyone to cut because the market will stabilize. That is a big strike against those were expecting a hut. Yesterday, we had a meeting of pretty eclectic group of countries there. They did not agree on a cut, either. The expectation going into that was maybe they would. Aat is what we saw oil go to fouryear low yesterday. If you had to bet right now, you would not want to be betting for a cut and for oil to go up. You mention russia. The Energy Minister is there come even though russia is not officially part of opec. Do we presume russia is looking to strike any deals on its own . What is the tension there . There waso speculation that the russians were prepared to cut by about 300,000 barrels a day in trade or in return for opec cutting by one Million Barrels. There were one of those four countries at that meeting. I spoke with the Energy Minister in the only interview they gave here in vienna. Basically, they said, no deal. We agree to monitor prices, watch prices, then if we see something bad on the market, then we will do something. He also said russia is prepared to withstand of necessary. Rice is even below 60. I would not cut your breath hold your breath. What will we see tomorrow . I think were going to see a pretty orderly meeting. I think the focus at this point is going to be on what they call compliance. Everybody is talking about a production cut, but lets not forget while these guys have an official quota of 30 Million Barrels a day, about one third of the world production, they produce closer to 31 million. You will probably see a couple Oil Ministers go around and schooled those they think are being naughty by overproducing to try to bring a production that way. Something that might be enough to push the oil price up. Very good. We need to give thanks on this wednesday, the fourth wednesday of november, for great bull market the comes amid the Great Central bank distortion. Those in cash, they get tv dinners for thanksgiving. Part of being in the market is playing being in the market. Gravy, white meat, dark me. It, cranberry. Congratulations on a bull market call. We look at the oil markets. How disruptive is oil . We have seen this and it has ainly is it an opportunity . Exxon, yes, but smaller andanies with more Leverage Companies with higher production costs you need a Balance Sheet. I think you go with strength and if youre hedging, you can hedge those off against give us the balance after this amazing market and here we are on thanksgiving looking forward to next year, of the basic idea, should i be in growthier things or value . It is a little bit of both right now. You cant ignore the fact that there are certain Tech Companies that are doing Pretty Amazing things. And there is a bull market for that. So from a trading point of view, you cannot ignore that. At the same time, you step back and you look at the market, 17. 4 times forward earnings. Continue toill expand. Having said that, many coming into this market will seek value. I think that you stocks will get can we do some math . Why not . P. E. Prices go up as earnings go up as well . Earnings go up and prices go up faster. Earnings go up in the numerator goes up faster. Ok. Is that too much math . You write about how volatility wont sleep on thanksgiving. Part of that is because were waiting for the opec reading. Ryan indicated it is unlikely we will see production cuts. Were also waiting out of a vote from switzerland. Thingss a lot of happening in europe right now that impact a lot of markets. In switzerland, the gold referendum, there are other things on the referendum as well, but as it relates to gold, this is very significant. It is probably not going to pass based on the recent polls i have seen, but if it were to pass, the implications are substantial. Indepth tying its currency more directed to gold, it would end up tying its currency more directly to gold. And faces longterm implications of the Central Banks inflating their Balance Sheets and people trying to figure out what to do next. If you look at the major developed markets Balance Sheet, and mostd included everyone elses Balance Sheet has gone up, too, the ecb is poised to increase substantially, that is very, very significant. For all of the long gold willnale, the gold bears point out, wheres the inflation . We had to get the bears into it. Did you see that . Are you going to watch bearslines early or 49ersseahawks at the end of the day . I think it is the packers and lions tomorrow. Know, the bears and lions. I have two thanksgiving meals. I dont do that. Ars up front. Nsbe in interesting game. Isnt it supposed to snow or the weather will be bad . Know, i think the lions are ok. They have a roof. How did the jets do . They got plummeted. We have some important interviews through the morning. Coming up later, what you need to know about Luxury Retail. We will do that in the next hour. Coming up next, hewlettpackard shares down. Breaking up is hard to do except when investors are pushing for. Onwill discuss, next surveillance. Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Later this morning, Thomas Rogers on in the loop. Hourfor that in the 8 00 this morning. I am tom keene with scarlet fu. Brendan greeley is off today. We are watching vienna and opec. 74. Texas intermediate were watching shares of hewlettpackard, down more than 2. 5 in the premarket after sales missed analyst estimates. The only business at hp to grow last quarter was the personal tc unit. That doesnt bode well for the upcoming split. Skest joins us via ype. Revenue down 2 overall. You in the pcare division better showing last quarter . The context of the pc industry has bode well for all pc makers. The funny thing that all the Hardware Companies are going toward, which is the servers, storage, Software Services division, while in fact, the pc division has been doing very well. It is a funny irony in the industry that the pc has been given up for dead, unprofitable, etc. Or sixer the last five quarters, both the corporate side and on the Consumer Spending side has boded well for pcs. It is unfortunate hp is looking hard for the other divisions when in fact the pc division is doing well, scarlet. Of irony there. And the decision to split up into an enterprise ors is a consumer unit was helped by activist investors nudging things along. Ralph whitworth built up a stake in 2011, joined the board. At his involvement was less confrontational than other companies. Is the split enough to appease them or will they be pushing for more . Look, the split is confusing. If you rewind to several years ago when the pc division was rumored to be spun off him at the pc industry was going through a period of significant weakness. Sass ford several years fast forward several years, on a relative basis [indiscernible] the funny thing is, the bottom line is the top line. How are we going to grow Revenue Growth . That is a struggle. Im not so sure the splitting up of the company is going to ease any foundational troubles the company is going through right now. Gotcha. One thing hps been pushing for, it is going into the 3d printing market as well. Saying theote a note 3d Printing Technology could be disruptive but details on its technical differentiation is scarce. What kind of advantage does hp have gone its brandname when it comes to 3d printing . It is a nice buzzword to throw around the industry. The 3d printing is rather inconsequential. If youre trying to use this as s innovation,hp hp is forward thinking, etc. , etc. , that is fine, but lets not get carried away and pretend it is going to move the needle or the top line. It is a relatively small market. Lee confusing. Y it is unclear how massmarket appeal it can have outside of making plastic things. My breathing to hold on 3d printing affecting hp sales. You dont sound convinced. It is a talking point, as you put it. Thank you for joining us on the latest with hp. Hp shares down 2. 7 in the premarket. Heres the hp chart. It shows the challenges. Not a bad year for meg whitman. Michael, what i find interesting is clout. Talking abody starts theme, all my radar goes up. How do you handle theme investing when youre trying to not lose money . It is a hard thing to do and a hard question. Remember nanotechnology . 1999, lot of powerpoint slides and detailed excel spreadsheets to go along with those. It is hard because you have seen companies was a post on alibaba which is generating real cash flows. Facebook is generating real revenues. These are new companies. They are themes but the cloud is a boom. My radar is up. Am i wrong . I dont think theres anything wrong with the cloud per se, it is a matter of if youre going to succeed in the cloud. Everyone is shifting cloud it becomes this catchall. In the cloud, doesnt mean you deserve a higher p. E. It is more that this is sort of a new environment you have to work out of. Youre looking for a way out. Do we have a twitter question . We do. What are you most thankful for this angst giving . What are you most thankful for this thanksgiving . Mine was simple. White meat or dark meat. It goes along with your gloves or mittens twitter question last year. We will be right back. Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Oil holding above 74. 00 this morning. This as opec looks to those meetings. Tomorrow they will do that in the enough. We say good morning to all of you. Scarlet fu with me. Brendan do and in greeley has demanded he is off. Lets get to our morning mustread. Mine is from the financial times. We know a lot of politicians have had to change the way they go about policy because of the drop in oil prices, especially for those who put his oil. In indias case, the prime subsidies for diesel because of the decline of oil prices. Down the road, where is oil going to be . I dont know. Can you make any judgment on it based on the last few months . It brings up the new volatility. Yes, it does. The short answer, in my opinion, it is very hard to make nearterm prices for dealing with a lot of geopolitical events that are hard to forecast among other things. One of the things i do think comes out of this discussion also is the way youre seeing , it isity show itself kenneth different what is the distinction . Sudden, severe jobs. You look at the spx in october. Yet a very vicious 9 direction. You see the same thing in oil. You if you look at the dollar rally, the dxy in august, it was one of the most aggressive rallies going back to 1966 in terms of the speed of the move. Michael purves. Coming up in the next hour on Luxury Retail, we are going to bring you robert burke. Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Travel nicely today. Scarlet, it is going to be ugly. Even on the commuter trains because of the wintry mix of rain and snow and whatnot. Our top headlines. We begin in the midwest or thousands marched or new york excuse me, in new york, for the second straight night, in reaction to what happened in the midwest, protesting the decision not to indict the white Police Officer in ferguson, missouri who fatally shot an unarmed like man in august. Demonstrators stopped traffic at the lincoln tunnel. Right in the middle of rush hour yesterday. Other rallies took place in dozens of cities across the united states. The Justice Department is launching an investigation of hsbc after currency trader allegedly leaked confidential client information to a hedge fund. This is according to the wall street journal. Prosecutors are interviewing about the allegation as part of the u. S. Probe into the possibly u. S. Currency rate rating. Uber may get financing that would give it a valuation of 35 billion to 40 billion according to those familiar with the situation. Considering an investment in the car booking company and ends it fidelity also said to participate in the latest round of funding. Leastaid to be raising at 1 billion this time. Those are your top headlines. Michael purves with us. Quickly on uber, does it say bubble . When you extrapolate out private market transactions . I cant speak to ubers specifics, i dont know what is inside the company, the theme is exciting. We are seeing Companies Successfully do it. You the probability affect that. Basically, uber is going to face a lot of regulatory push back. When you start extrapolating good math, you extract extrapolation is dangerous. And were seen this time and time again in 20 years with the new exciting paradigm shifts, you end up in chapter 11. Are we allowed to say paradigm in 2014 . Yes, lets do more of it. Lets move on to something far more serious than extrapolation. However the weather . For the folks traveling this ofnksgiving eve, the busiest the year, it is going to be nothing short of a challenge. And meteorologist with accuweather joins us now from pennsylvania and tells us what we need to know. Judging by that map behind you, it is looking pretty ugly for the i95 corridor along the east coast. You know what they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. Look at that. Conveyor belt of moisture from florida all the way up to massachusetts. Were looking at rain and a lot of it. This storm does not have a lot of cold air to work with, so we are waking up to rain and new york and philadelphia and d. C. That as the storm strengthens, this could drag and colder air from the north, dryer air, and produce a lot of lift. The air rises and will cool, so it will translation over to sleet and snow in new york city in the afternoon and evening hours. Mix to start, then a wintry. Lots of heavy snow. We mention i95. Is that the dividing line between if it is if you live east of i95, youre ok, but west of it, you will be dealing with that wintry mix you just described . Morningially for the hours, out of the south, as we take you down into virginia, i95, a wall of water. As you head west, pouring oh in the mountains. Pouring snow in the mountains. It will transition to sleet and snow in the afternoon and evening hours. It is going to get messy. I love your work. , plus or minus, how many miles do have confidence. If i minced grand, pennsylvania, how do i know you store west if i mincednce grand, pennsylvania, how do i know east or west your confidence . Very confident. I would say around the lehigh , southward, that is where we are talking more of a mix. New york city, it is really tight. West, newe north and jersey, southeast new york, talking maybe half a foot of snow. North of the bridge, we could see six more inches easily. It is a fine line. The storm wiggles a little bit. That will change that rainsnow line. Quick final question. Give us some good news. Where within the country is unlikely to be nice weather where theyre not disrupted by rain or snow . Ok, were some record warmth in seattle, near 60. Nice weather . Bay area, mid80s in los angeles. Phoenix, mid70s. It will be nice for travelers in dallas and houston. Even new orleans looking good. Those are the places to be, the southwest. We had to end on a nice note. Thank you for joining us from accuweather. You have all those toys, and i just wonder how accurate they are. We somehow survived before when we had no clue. My grandmother talking about the hurricane in 1938, she took my father to the dentist and they barely got home to life. They had no clue it was coming whatsoever. The use of cash this year is off the chart. It continues. Does ago into 2005 as the religion of the moment . Im sorry . Buybacks coming dividends. You had that whole thing recharged a couple of months ago when risky rates came in quite a bit. What did you see . A new sort of avalanche of buybacks and Dividend Growth and dividend payouts are contending to increase. I had a hard time following that train of thought. To the macysack day parade. I had no sleep last night. What about cfos . The pressure theyre under to do bond transactions and lock in these low yields. Absolutely. A cfo is not going to time a bond yield the way macro trader is. Ceos and boards, common sense, probably pretty good time debt if youongterm have the Balance Sheet to do so. I think the question about buybacks, borrowing money to do more buybacks, you do have to look at overall the credit quality of Large Companies will decrease in at a pretty fast rate if you keep doing that. Interesting. That brings us to apple. For 2014, the great event, the chart is just i did not realize what that chart looked like. There it is, scarlet. It paid off. Michael, you talked about the site and jobs in spurts of volatility. When we look at oil prices and commodity prices, it has been in a down trend. Is that volatile . It looks pretty orderly to me. It had a general decline across commodities starting three years ago. Sloweds really been downward grind across a lot of commodities. And youve had and will strengthening of the dollar. With that, the china slowdown, has taken the pressure off things like copper and such. But you do have the sudden severe jabs of volatility in gold and oil what keeps you up at night, janet yellen . Not really. Frameworkink the risk going into 2015 is you have to watch for big bad events out of nowhere, if theres a military aggression, if Oil Prices Spike problem in theme middle east and that kind of stuff. Im not too worried about rates surging forward, surging higher for two reasons. One, i think janet yellen is extreme the concerned about that. When and if she raises rates, she will march at a bit by bit in a controlled way and keep it keep a close eye on economic indicators. Where is the wall of worry . I think theres a wall of malaise, a wall of hatred about buying into a market at 17. 5 times earnings. Against the backdrop of 7 , 9 earnings growth. I think there is that. It is not exactly a wall of worry. There are always things going on around the world to be worried about. Clearly, europes slowdown and deflationary pressures, china continuing to accelerate to the downside or Something Like that. But if Monetary Policy and fiscal policy, as clumsy as it often is, holds together, it is going to go along to help keeping risk. On on friday, joining us on bloomberg surveillance mr. Grinch. The stalwart will be with us. Joe weisenthal will be with us. I like the way you put that, clumsy Monetary Policy. Eve,g up on thanksgiving ready, set, shop. Youll likely get more or less than in the past. We will explain in todays single best chart, next. A 73m about ready to get print on west texas intermediate. 74. 01 moments ago. That bears close watching over the next 48 hours. It is bloomberg surveillance. Everything open today. We will be here friday to give you the best we can off the opec meeting. Joseph wiesenthal will join me on friday. Right now we have a single best chart. It is seasonally appropriate as well. The idea is shoppers have been getting more for less with apparel purchases over the last 15 years. The chart is from morgan stanley. The white line tracks the value of apparel sales, the dollar amount. Like Everything Else, is swelled the lead up to 2007, took a dip, and even though it recovered kind of a flat line in contrast with the yellow line, which shows the number of items sold. A dramatic recovery followed by a steady uptrend. This is evidence that the consumer is paying less per unit. Michael, it is just great. The unit sales are sloping upward dramatically. All in pricing unit is flat. It speaks to so many industries. If you step back and think about the tough grind for some and he people in this is one of the Silver Linings is that at least people are buying stuff cheaper. It is also a reflection of structural disinflation or he ces dish of disinflationary forces. You can get something that was on the runway two weeks ago at h m. Pros like you will say productivity has improved as a goes back to that chart earlier of the improvement in real gdp. Fashion and retail is easier to acquire. Absolutely. It is amazing what you can get now versus 20 years ago and how easy it is to get it across a wide spectrum of demographics. Part of the problems is that you had this radical technological a lotthat is disrupting of companies and industries on top of sort of the deleveraging still coming out of the 2008 great financial crisis. The timing of all of this Wonderful Technology is off, if you will. We will look at the technology and retail in the next hour with robert burke. Visit. Thanksgiving he travels worldwide on luxury. Smart power with robert burke coming up in the next hour. Top photos. We have to stay with thanksgiving. Are number three photo, amazon workers preparing for black friday and cyber monday. Here in the u. S. , an estimated 140 million u. S. Shoppers will hit the stores on the web this week and in search of those discounts. It looks like a shot from raiders of the lost ark. How many people are there in comparison to robots and Everything Else . Tremendous amount of seasonal workers. Can they keep their jobs after the Holiday Season . They stand in line for a long time after their shift ends to make sure they did not take anything. Look at my bow tie. Its a good one. It is thanksgiving. The number two photo. The 80th annual macys thanksgiving date parade 88th in all bases thanksgiving day parade. Wards they blowing up the balloons or is that tonight . With the police of new york city stretched across Central Park South because of the protesters last night. Helicopters in the whole thing. Every siren was going off. Lights blaring. At the same time, they were building the bleachers for the macys day parade. It was a sort of only in new york city kind of thing. You will be a little watch the parade from your apartment. It will be the annual throwing the child out the window. Spiderman and Spongebob Squarepants will be among the balloons. We will be looking for anna and elsa. Joining us on 7 00 a. M. Eastern time, the state of affairs on like friday. What a success. Michael purves, ceos matter, dont they . He matters a lot for the company. He has done a fantastic job. Final photo. A volunteer helps hand out donated food for thanksgiving organizedat an event by catholic charities. About 400 and come residents in the home and neighborhood able to receive food. More than half a million homeless on any given night. This continues to be really serious, this division of incomes. For all the talk about black friday and for rates, it is all about giving on this thanksgiving holiday. Our twitter question of the day i know what i am grateful for, our producers in the control room. Are you on the ice rink tomorrow morning . Thank thank in this goodness. Were going to have to have a talk during the break. bsurveillance. Over the woods and through lincoln tunnel. Travel safe. If youre delayed at laguardia or jfk or newark, winter is coming. Have a book. Have on your smartphone or tablet. Bloomberg surveillance. It is the fourth wednesday of november, good morning. Scarlet it a started. We know how apple wins you to ditch your wallet for your iphone 6 and apple pay. The options keep growing. T year, noble mobile another mobile payment will be available. The stratus card. The company ceo says this bluetooth connected card that is not yet made its debut but wilson, will make her life easier and will actually be more secure than your credit cards. Tell us how this works. It is one card that has a Magnetic Stripe that is familiar to anyone with a credit card . Yes, it has an entire computer packed inside a standard shaped card. The stripe on the back can change. One second it is swiping as though it is worth express card in the next a debit card or loyalty card. It can replace all the cards in your wallet with this one stratos card. Is is still the same strip that is the same technology as the 1970s cassette tapes . It is our Innovative Technology we have been working on for over two years now. It is unique Stripe Technology that allows it to be reprogrammed. Uniquely, i will lose the card. What happens . It has a bluetooth leash that can sense it is within range of your phone. If you leave it behind at the restaurant, you can have it lock up so you cant use it. You set apple pay is not a competitor, but you point out there lots of things that people dont feel capable using apple pay to pay for. Hotels, highend restaurants. How can i be a competitor . As a view apple pay complement to our solution. We have seen consumers in our surveys are pretty interested in using apple pay lets say the grocery store. That interest doesnt really translate into a restaurant or bar. Theres a lot of circumstances were you cannot use apple pay. Less than 3 of merchants accepted it. I want to rip up the script on the wednesday before november. There is talk that you did in 2007, you are a high placer at the intel science conference, which is the most prestigious thing in high school science. How did you do that . What did your parents do to give you what you did in physics and engineering . Ive had a background in science and engineering but what did they do when you were eight years old, legos . I was working with my dad tinkering in the garage. Just getting your hands on it getting your hands dirty and never thinking anything is impossible. Fusion and some of the research i was doing something was very interested in, but i was especially interested in it because i was told it was impossible or very hard is it impossible to go up against tim cook and apple with your new card . We view ourselves not as competitive, but just a really unique complement to the applepay another mobile payments. Your survey found 30 of smartphone owners use applepay or Google Wallet sometime this Holiday Season to make holiday purchases. Many say they will be likely to spend more because of that. What can a test case with this Holiday Season server these mobile Payment Systems . Mobile payment is going to be pretty hot this Holiday Season. We are seeing a whole lot of folks interested in trying it out. However, that interest theres a lot of confusion as to where they can actually pay. That makes sense. Less than 3 of merchants can accept applepay. I would expect that. Whole foods, for example, has been pushing it quite heavily. They are already seen within the first few weeks of launching up to 1 of the transactions going over those rails. That is a big change. Do you use it, Michael Purves . Not yet. Do you have an iphone 6 . Not yet, maybe for christmas. Good to have you. Michael purves, thank you, on a wednesday. Stay with us. Flex this is bloomberg surveillance. The president asks for calm as protesters in ferguson shift from boyle to simmer. The governor of missouri asks for Additional National guard. In new york city, police lacked the block the path for protesters. And black friday, it means get out the black American Express card and buy something black from Bergdorf Goodman. Good morning, everyone. Were live from our World Headquarters in new york. Im tom keene. Joining me, scarlet fu and Brendan Greeley is shopping today. A show of force in ferguson, missouri. The National Guard troops tripled to about 2200. There was scattered unrest. Some stores were vandalized, but it was nothing like the chaos on monday night. Meanwhile, the Police Officer who shot the black teenager in ferguson is speaking publicly for the first time. Was interviewed by george stephanopoulos. I dont think it is haunting. It is always something that happened. You have a very clean conscience. The reason i have a clean conscience is i know i did my job right. Wilson is also the subject of a Justice Department investigation. The Governors Office is still unlikely to charge him with violating the victims civil rights. Kong with the biggest battle yet between police and prodemocracy protesters took place. To give in tosed the demonstrators demand for a free election for the hong kong chief executive leader. Saudi arabia oil minister says there is no need for an opec nation to reduce output. He said Falling Crude prices will stabilize on their own. Like nations meet tomorrow in vienna opec nations meet tomorrow in vienna. All prices are down 30 since june. Amazon says forget about. Lack friday look at amazon and the challenges of brickandmortar retail as well. Amazon has deals you can only get on your tablet or smartphone. The big attomorrow midnight tomorrow they begin. Travel, you better have a good book. Now,ork city is calm right the proverbial calm before the storm. A shot of manhattan from World Headquarters. Later today, we are excited to be hit by a noreaster. All you need to know is up to 10 inches migrating in off the basically a long and north of i95. Those are the top headlines this morning. Were going to stick with the weather here. Foryone is on the road, but the folks traveling to thanksgiving eve, which is one of the busiest travel days of the year, it will be nothing short of a challenge. Right here in the down manhattan, it is already rating right here in midtown manhattan, it is already raining. What time do we need to get out if what time. Need to get out, if you want to new jerseys say, echo e better leave now. Conditions are going downhill. Of rain,ee a mixture sleet, and snow in new york city this afternoon, and philadelphia this afternoon into this evening. Slushy and sloppy later in the day. Boston about 2 00 to 4 00. Away from the interior coastal section, heavy, wet snow. And windy innowy the northern rockys. Another day for poor travel conditions. Across the south, it looks pretty good and it will be improving in the southeast in florida where we have seen some pretty heavy downpours this morning. Good news for travelers going through atlanta, the rain has pushed off to the east. Today, too. Ld be ok but new york, philly, d. C. , boston, forget about it. The i95 corridor in being targeted. Forecasters seem to have gotten it wrong earlier this week. We were hearing it would just be rain, and then it just changed to eight inches of snow for the metropolitan area of new york. How confident are week this will still be a strong snowstorm later today . Corrects the confidence factor is shaky on this one. My down to the the confidence factor is shaky on this one, right down to to the whites of the eyes on this one. , as it lips and get stronger, it will pull down more colder air from the north. It is a dicey situation, but im kind of confident it will be about two to four inches, one to three inches in the city late this afternoon. Confident on snow. Mark mancuso with accuweather joining us from pennsylvania. Scarlet fu just it was two weeks ago, 70 off the gap. Even luxury has joined the fray. Robert burke is totally appalled. Of duty at ands Bergdorf Goodman after two tumors of duty at bergdorf , that you would pay discounts. Black friday has really become black november. Weve seen retailers, whether they be highend or discount, starting to discount, and starting to discount three weeks ago. Are the shelves overstocked into the season echo of a smart inventoried . Into the season . Are they smart inventoried . The weather has been crazy. The consumer has been cautious. Prices, theyer gas still have been very cautious. At the highend can but the consumer has been more confident because of the stock market. Had difficulty predicting the season. Its been up and down. Which brand is winning . X i think nordstrom is winning right now. As i department store. And as brands go, we continue to see burberry performing well and opening more doors and being good. Reporting yesterday. North america. Everyone has been focused on the growth in north america. Of onetrom is an example the benefits from the north american consumer. And also not open thanksgiving day. Cost cosco, american girl, they will not be open, and they can do that because they have unique and distinctive product offering. Anything idone have not met if you know of any persuasion that have not done anything but rave about tiffanys new t bracelet. Do they pay you a fee and you consult and say tiffany, make a t bracelet. We dont talk about that. And itwas the right time is distinctive and looks good. It just resonates with the consumer. You just never know. You never know when its going to hit and it really did. Would you like one . Yes, definitely. I will pidgeon as well. Pitchtrue that i will in as well. Few years ago, a Bergdorf Goodman offered no celebrations are discounts because of the holidays, and then things turned . What was the Tipping Point . To somegree, degree, keeping up with the competition. When i started with bergdorf, we were closed on sundays, always close on the holidays. There was never any promotion or sale. You had decorations. But we did not do them until after thanksgiving. The Consumers Expectations now i started to in Christmas Decorations september. I think there is got to be a happy medium there. Bergdorf, and even sacks with avenue and even really holding onto that activity. Click sweat happens in the week after christmas and the two or three weeks into january . Is it the same as five years ago . No, nothing is quite as defined as it was before. Oftentimes, its right after christmas that there are markdowns. Its not like that. People have to be more flexible. The reason is, the web. It whatdoing what they are calling web rooming now. Andthe Tree Lighting i that is next week, by the way. And there are things that dont translate. It feels good to go into the stores and feel their experience and also be able to buy the product. Thank you so much for thank you so much for coming in on an important day for retail. Terry lundgren will speak to bloomberg surveillance. Really looking forward to speaking to mr. Lundgren. What a turnaround from the dark days of macys to their multimillion dollar expansion at carol square. And we also talk about the on the options that Terry Lundgren is offering. Stay with us on retail. It is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Good morning, everyone. We welcome you worldwide and in this wednesday. We hope you have saved travels. Scarlet fu is with me. Brendan greeley is off today. Unido laments here until are you and i the only ones here until 2 p. M. Today . I am off at 10 00 a. M. With extrarrive suitcases at jfk and go home laden with suitcases of extra stuff. The chinese buy in new york, seattle, london, or do they buy in china . To answer your question, they dont buy in china compared to what they buy abroad. Two thirds of their spending happens abroad and only one third in china. They are traveling like never before. They are buying in paris and london and new york. Really have the bragging rights to go back to china and say, i bought this, and they are worried about authenticity. That is a big motivating factor. Scarlet, here is the brand, haretz. Helmets , buthave the usual stuff if im abroad, i want to go to that magic. Bergdorf ore as x. With chineseng consumers this year, they are not buying as much. They are not buying as much. It has slowed down with the government putting restrictions on gifting. But they are still spending. When you look at the population and the amount of tourists that are coming, they are still incredibly important to the overall retail sales. Magic of madison avenue and how its changing so much. I dont know half the names on madison avenue. As become this International Street now, madison avenue. This it has become International Street now, madison avenue. Any company that wants to be there has to be a enormous rent. Any local retailers or shops ann taylor is vacant. Above thece is right ann taylor store and i dont know who will be. Lunacy. We will see. Speaking of enormous rent, later beay, Dottie Herman will speaking to Market Makers at 11 30 a. M. Coming up on bloomberg television. Good wednesday morning. Im tom keene. With me, scarlet fu. Mr. Really is cooking a large bird today. Futures are up, too. Oil is now below 74. Opec gets ready to meet. Better for the airlines. And better for those who drive this thanksgiving weekend. Are a traveler right now, or getting on the road soon, you will probably have plenty of time to count and recount your frequentflier miles. With major changes in the programs this past year, and more to come, we bring in Loyalty Programs and membership expert brian kelly. On the setup into 2015. Thank you for joining us. You famously used your American Airlines mouse to fly from london to abu dhabi. With that trip word that trip now be possible with the changes in the program . Absolutely, nothing has changed with the emirates and Alaska Airlines. I actually went from dubai to new york. Starting january 1, you no longer look at miles based on how far you fly, but how much you spend. Of people could be earning a lot les miles. A lot fewer miles. How do you calculate perks . There is a status like priority upgrades like early boarding. The 150 range, you will get lounge access. Even the delta reserve and gives you a great priority over those who do not have that credit card. You have to have the right plastic in your wallet if you want the premium perks. A question i get all the time you have been hugely popular on our show. Do the airlines like you or hate you . You would havek to ask them yourselves, but i think in general, the Airlines Want the travelers to be invested in these Loyalty Programs. They are billiondollar revenue makers for the airlines. When you know how to leverage them, and i like to say, nothing we do is gray area. Its all about maximizing. We are aboveboard with everything we do. I like to think they like me. With us as well, robert burke of Robert Brooks associates, who spends 382 days a year in Business Class. A question for the smartest guy in travel . How do i get from Business Class to firstclass . A lot of airlines are getting rid of firstclass altogether. Business class is pretty profitable. In terms of elite status, if you are traveling on American Airlines, executive platinum status is the top and a have those premium routes. We are asking questions about how you step up from Business Class to firstclass. I just want to get a coach ticket right now. Next you look at jetblue you look at jetblue and you are scouring the seats. You are saying to go with branded cards. What is the best way to gain idiotic of i just booked a flight today for a friend from miami to new york. What is the best way to gain it . Just look to fly today for a friend from miami to new york. You really need to know the best programs for your redemptions. Fly from miami to new york for 12 and we think you are a genius. Actually 5. 68. Do what you do without your confidence and your encyclopedic knowledge . The beautiful thing website, we give you in great detail you can pretty much google any term. Its just about not feeling defeated and being a little bit aggressive. Correct do you rely sees on a beach like every eight days . Do you realize he is on a beach like every eight days . Ido. I know. The superrich, coming to abu dhabi this weekend for the formula one championships last race. They have resident suites with fullscale tours. Take a shower, relax, and call the butler to attend your every need. The fights begin next week. The book is all over that. Can you use your points to get this . Over robert look is all that. Can you use your points to get this . Absolutely. Itll cost you a little over 2 million points, but if youve got a bunch, why not splurge . The cannot say enough about fun of his website. I have never used my frequent flyer miles. You are missing out. I have to pay for for travelers all the time, so im always using them. Do use yours . All the time. Im not nearly as savvy, but i use them all the time. I use a lot of American Express delta and im a devoted air france wire flyer. It is interesting that you to just one. Ted im trying to get on the Alaska Airlines bandwagon. Thinking more dubai. You going to go live to berlin for the latest on the European Commissions plan to stimulate growth. It doesnt involve the European Central bank. Well explain. And Oil Continues south, 73. 89 per barrel. And to our twitter question what are you most thankful for this thanksgiving . Stay with us. This is bloomberg surveillance. Im scarlet fu here with tom keene. Brendan greeley is off today. Lets get to the top headlines. Thousands march to the street in the second night of protesting after the grand jurys decision not to indict the white officer who fatally shot an unarmed black man in august. They walked down the Manhattan Bridge and elsewhere right in the middle of rush hour. Other protest took place in cities around the u. S. Is claiming tax evasion by foreign companies. Torosoft is being required pay more than 150 million dollars. The payments were detailed in a report by state media, which did not identify the company involved. Looking for uber financing with 500 million. And existing investors fidelity also said to be participating in this round of funding. Robert burke is with us from robert burke associates. Very quickly here, its remarkable how uber has changed how we move. What do you see with fashion and uber . It has become the new standard. And there are Different Levels and different ways of using it. We will see what they do in 2015 in terms of going public. To mr. Burke. Ow he and countless others cannot do business in russia. Real sanctions in madge and have stopped development of Luxury Retail in Vladimir Putins state. , i mean,s sunglasses everybody goes to harrods now because you cannot go do business in russia. Seen is thate have the russians are not traveling that much. That is a big issue. And with the duties, the has puts, and now putin a new tax on internet deliveries, it is making it virtually impossible to do business there. People like unit grow our stopping all of their unit glow our stopping all of their expansion there. Europe last week speaking to many of the luxury black brand. They are seeing a 20 of 30 drop. For those who are overseas in veryn, or in new york, is pentup need to spend because they cannot do it here . They are not the grade they are not feeling so great about spending. So many of them are based in russia, but traveling to london or new york, but now they are not traveling. Speaking of the decline in the japanese yen, the struggle is phenomenal. Is there a further development in the gdp . We continue to see it be sluggish. And there are other economies that continue to be strong. Japan has been slow to recover. A woman wearing all burberry , and then in london it is mixandmatch, right . Who decides whether you will mixandmatch or head to toe . In some places, it is just cultural. In places like japan or china, they feel comfortable wearing the brand head to toe. U. S. , morelike the confidence in mixing and matching. What about the confidence of the consumer . As all prices start falling, that will affect their willingness to spend, too. Oil prices start falling, that will affect their willingness to spend, too. To see instarting general and increase. While the prices of oil may be falling, the consumer certainly, at the highend, and there is not a lot of middle, but at the highend, they continue to spend. Bringing it back to america, what you see in 2015 . The mostbably optimistic they retailers and brands have been about growth in america. We have seen increases in the third quarter, through the last nine months. Weve seen some Brands Increase 47 in the u. S. We made a contribution, robert. Robert burke knows my wallet. We have a lot of data coming up, including durable goods, and the chicago purchasing manager. Here with tom keene. Brendan greeley is off today. Futures have given up some of their gains and are a little bit lower. Oil prices we continue to monitor as opec gets ready to meet tomorrow. Right now, comments are split on whether there will be a cut. Is European Commission stepping into the driver seat to try to stimulate growth in the nearlyand unveiling a 400 billion dollar investment plan. Hans nichols joins us with the latest. There is not a lot of conviction that europe will get this right. Is this plan in conjunction with the European Central bank . Flex it is meant to be in conjunction. It is meant to be in conjunction. Banks have Pretty Healthy Balance Sheets. The question is where they will invest it. Createan is trying to something out of nothing, create some three hundred 15 billion euros by backstopping it with 21 billion 21 billion euros from the eu. But they are just hoping to leverage it up, 15 times the leverage. And they want to have projects that total 315 billion euros. Ofck that sounds like a lot big numbers. We will see what actually emerges from this. I want to bring in what pope francis said. He spoke to the European Parliament and he called Continental Europe elderly and haggard and compared it to an elderly grandmother to my no longer fertile or vibrant. Grandmother, no longer fertile or vibrant. They are losing momentum here from even the pontiff. Is not a great deal of optimism in europe right now. There are no animal spirits. Whenis trying to do jeanclaude is trying to do is unleash some of the capital and get this outside of europe. As to the comparison of haggard old ladies, i will leave those comments to tom keene. I just see a sea of lawsuits. I could not spend enough on my indulgences to get me out of the trouble i could be in. Tom, hr is listening. What is ueckers plan to be a change agent for the structural malays of europe . To get into the structural problems, you have to get the higher contributions from member countries and that is the problem they are having with the u. K. Right now. Structurally, what more can they do . In some ways, the structure in brussels is more advanced than the rest of the population in europe would want. The bigger challenge is getting the rest of europe to buy into the superstructure that has erected itself, almost built itself in brussels. There is plenty of infrastructure in brussels. The question is whether it is legitimate among the people. And that gets into the question of far right wing and rightwing parties and populist parties and whether they will settle this whole european project. Raises a lot of questions. Hans nichols, happy thanksgiving to you. That raises a lot of questions. Hans nichols, happy thanksgiving to you. Its a whole different psychology, isnt it . Collects it is. The reluctance to change as part of the issue. It is. The reluctance to change is part of the issue. The milan fashion show, how is that different from london or new york . Plex milan is not as big as new york, necessarily. It is much bigger than london. Veryou see better established brands. What milan has done is to nurture young designers. Establishedhe brands, but not the new energy. That is what everyone is talking about thats what the pope is talking about, not young, vital, fertile. I will not say anything more because hr is listening. Coming up tomorrow, Terry Lundgren. What do you want to hear from him . To seell be interested what happens tomorrow and through the weekend. And the question is, what will happen on december 20 . December 20, super saturday. Many people are predicting it will be bigger than black friday. Wisdom from robert burke. Stay with us. This is bloomberg surveillance or come im scarlet fu with tom keene. Reigning groovy is off today. Lets talk about Brendan Greeley is off today. Lets talk about tivo. Joining bettye liu today. Do you tivo . No one says that anymore. No one even uses that as a verb. By the way, i like when you us just the two of you and tom. [laughter] waslmost seem like tivo going to be phased out. Who brought them back to life . None other than Companies Like netflix and amazon with their video service. These new platforms, new content providers need a way to allow consumers to essentially curate heir own content, right . Essentially, people are using tivo on their mobile phones with air are curating content from netflix, amazon, from youtube. Maybe tom rogers should thank Reed Hastings and others for bringing the company back. Another thing is they are really big in europe. Cable operations there are a little bit behind here in the u. S. And now people in europe are really getting on the tivo bandwagon. And youve also got peabody. Bo peabody is one of the partners, one of the prominent partners at great craft. He has invested in several companies you might know. Then bo was just the subject on business bloomberg businessweek. And yes invested in the hospitality group, a restaurant group. Is now valued at almost 40 billion. That is incredible. That is almost as much as michael cores. Kors. Hael will we see any interest in m a right now . Collect you will see a lot of activity in m and eight. Investors are interested. What is the spirit at lvmh right now . They are also very focused on m a and very active and looking to acquire new brands and acquiring new talent to take over their brands. You will see a significant amount of investing from them. You look at uber and its a big thing. Do you uber . Flex constantly. My biggest problem is that you can only constantly. My biggest problem is that you at once. Uber need multiple . Constantly. The regular will be a flat rate. I foresee and uber 2. 5 with the regular verb being a flat rate. There you go. What are you most thankful for on this thanksgiving . Tweet us. If att first first you dont succeed, wait a couple of years. Terry lundgren has hit the ball, to use the fenway park phrase, over the wall. We say congratulations, and as we have a parade tomorrow, mr. Lundgren will join us on friday. He will be with us in the 7 00 hour. We really look forward to being with Terry Lundgren. Decidesupreme court will if the Obama Administration went too far with new pollution rules. At issue is whether the epa should consider a cost limit on power plants. The epa says it didnt. And they are issuing new rules on ozone omissions. Buy back shares are worth 2 companyafter its parent off Deere Company forecast fiscal 2014 profits fiscal 2015 profits have been hurt by falling prices. Analysts were looking for 2. 2 billion. Earnings were one point 8 billion. 1. 8 billion, so that was amiss. Go to the left pass the escalator on the second floor, bergdorf, to places where Manolo Blahnik builds the brand. And they go out and destroy their image on the internet. Its all the roughandtumble luxury brand. Robert burke is one of the experts in the world on managing, saving, and salvaging brands. What does the internet due to someone like Manolo Blahnik . It opens up a whole new world for Manolo Blahnik and it gives exposure. What we are seeing is that consumers are researching more than ever. Before they even go into a bergdorfs or neimans to buy , they are blahnik online and know exactly what colors its made in and what style, and then they go into physically by it. We are calling that web rooming. Web rooming . Web rooming. All of this research is taking away from the spontaneity of shopping. Its all very cut and dry and it consumers to always expect some kind of discount. You cannot charge the manufacturer recommended price anymore. Everyone is learning all the time on how this is affecting consumer buying patterns. What were finding is they are not as spontaneous. Theyre not as impulsive because theyve already done their research. They have spent their money mentally before they ever walked into the store. There are certain challenges for that. Alwayspect Free Shipping now. It is just an evolving kind of way of looking at buying. And of course, the mark massmarket retailers are using contests and deals to entertain people to give them a reason to get off the couch and come into the stores. Do you see any of that trickling into highend . Highendlly, the consumer is not as antispy gaming. Not as enticed b by gaming. But the massmarket retailers have been really smart. If you get involved and get notices early, even maces is doing a thanks for sharing, which is a combination of registering and some goes to charity and the nato ally up all that you spent and you get a discount. Tallym and then they up all you spent and you get a discount. How someurprised at brands are everywhere and yet they maintain the brand. How do they do that . There are probably about 50 stores in the u. S. , so that is quite substantial. But they could they keep the exclusivity. I was at the Louis Vuitton event where you are to monogram your own tag. The personalization is exclusive. The new styles are very selective and aspirational in their marketing and the way they appeal to the consumer. But Louis Vuitton is still part of this mega luxury brand that is pretty well known among the masses. It is different from the elitist brands that youve been looking at. The more discerning highend consumer is choosing to shun the Louis Vuitton and the bags you can get anywhere and looking for something more selective, arent they . Talking aboute the. 001 of the luxury consumer, they always looking for the latest, most discreet, most unknown kind of how do you become part of the club by having something no one else has . Louis vuitton has done and a fun job managing their image. Brands ae the laura p on any a laura piani and gucci, that are both owned by piani, by the way. Ofit is the fourth wednesday november. This is very cool. Nathaniel morton, keeper of the. Ecords at Plymouth County the desolate wilderness look for this in the wall street journal today. Has a certain resonance in 2014. Our twitter question of the day is, what are you most thankful for this thanksgiving . Here are the answers. Formost, but very thankful surveillance. A shameless plug. We love you, too. And there is a selfie taken by tom. It was my eyebrow. Sexy got just allow, colby smith, alice and urban, all of us are here. Our director, all here. They it up at 3 00 a. M. To make this go. It is a great team. Here is what someone is most thankful for this thanksgiving. Stuffing. Nd i like the dark meat, too. And here is our final answer. Im thankful for good family and threat of a good people. No one answered football. Youve got to it radio. I will hold the four down here. Your opinion of apple pay . Pegs i think the jury is out on apple pay. I think the jury is out on apple pay. I dont thing its happening way people expected it to, no. Do you think that your will be an indication of more willingness to spend through phones and digital wallets on high end things . When it comes to high end things, people are understandably reluctant to go beyond what they are comfortable with. I think that with mobile devices we are seeing more and more family artie and comfort in shopping. And more familiarity comfort in shopping. And if they bought the brand before, they are more likely to go back and bite again. But first time buys are not so comfortable with the mobile device or just online. That is where they are web rooming and then going in to make the physical purchase. How concerned is bergdorf or anothereimans about data hack . A wakeupyone had call this year about the data hack. They are putting precautions in place and are very aware of it. Prior to a year ago, it had never happened on the kind of scale that it had happened to a target, to a neiman. Everyone is very aware. Could it happen again . Is, that is reality how theyre going to purchase. I think people just accept the fact that ought at some point they will get fraudulent purchases and it will have to change the data. Life goes on. Wanted item . Most most wanted item, that is a good one. I would say, handbags are big. Jewelry is big. If you are talking about categories. Specific, which brand . I think the tiffany t bracelet. Tom called it. I cant believe he was a trendsetter. Robert, thank you so much for joining us this thanksgiving eve. Bloomberg surveillance continues on the radio. In the loop up next on blumer television. Good morning. It is wednesday, november 26. You are in the loop. I am betty liu. My minutes away from the opening bell, and we have a great show on thanksgiving eve. An online retailer coming up with different ways to keep you shopping from your sofa. About all of that with will peabody of grey croft partners. They company ceo tom rogers joins me on why tivo might have amazon and netflix to thank for their growth. First, a look at our top stories. The violence in ferguson, missouri. Some stores were vandalized. It was nothing like the chaos of monday night. The Police Officer who shot the black teenager in ferguson spoke publicly for the first time. He was interviewed by abc. I dont think it is a haunting. It will always be something that happened
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