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Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20141022

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German Government Bond yields lower. Transport stocks are up. View, theated on the backend of next year, dont worry because the ecb and the bank of japan will be there to fill the gap. Remind you of the line in the united kingdom. Individual stocks. Heineken having rebuffed sap miller. I know ryan will go three actual numbers. The market was looking for rise of about half a percent. Peugeot doing quite nicely. China and europe rebalancing everything else. Output. Utting their they will see the market contract by 15 . Waiting for home retail to come through. One of the brands is a diy store chain here in the united kingdom. Dollar. Ve a look at the to net and neck as we go the brazilian elections. Markets begin to get a little more concerned. Volatility in this currency is that a threeday height. Barclays says it does not matter who wins the election. The euro itself this morning, let me show you over the past two days, a slightly better perspective. This was the big ecb getting involved in the market discussion. Today, david caught up with us in the Investor Conference in new york and he , expectedwill come in to come in showing a contraction in manufacturing. All of the body of evidence will move you toward that sometime, mario draghi might have to say, if you are not on board lets get an investor take on todays top market thing. We are joined by strategist. We have to take things off would sovereign debt. Ingine you were sitting italian bonds or 6. 5 and they are now 2. 5 percent. Explain why youre still running that risk to your boss. When does the movie start . The movie has started. We take a look at what happened last week when we saw nestle. Italy particularly selloff, spain to a lesser degree. People realize that the european peripheral game is played now. The yield we look at the graphic and and we can see that along the bottom. When people suddenly realize this will become a big risk. The next time we see a correction, spain has made real improvements in the economy. That is one of the ways we invest in emerging markets. Look at italy. Politics remain an absolute farce and there has been absolutely no reform. You have to explain why youre Still Holding on to italy. The risk is potentially coming back. We will not see a repeat and the europe is going to be fine and dandy. I think you are wrong. Lets be clear, it is not my call. We have come down from 6. 5 . Plenty of people saying, the run is over and the rally is over. There is a big difference between avoiding the periphery and actively being short the periphery. This could be the widow maker out of japan. There are various ways you can play that trade going short. Start thinking about how do you actually exit at the right moment. Because of the liquidity crisis, the fact that banks are no longer making markets, you cannot afford to play that second strategy. Ecb couldor that the buy corporate debt. Seriously, what is going on . Lets by all european corporate debt because investors who are the big credit investors, they will need to reinvest. They will buy more corporate that. Not increasing growth, but buying back their stock. Nonsense. So much to talk about. The Federal Reserve as well. We will do that after the break. Another stock were watching is heineken. 10 after theover combat after they come out with Revenue Growth of just 0. 2 . I worry the fed is getting the patient too much medicine and does not know how to stop the medicine. The day is going to come when they cannot keep doing it. Foreboding carl icahn speaking to bloomberg tv yesterday. Addicted to the stuff. Really summed it up quite well. Has not even got started. A lot of people talking about them heading down the same route as the Federal Reserve. We are talking about buying the fed can make a very direct effect on the u. S. Economy by buying treasuries. The bank of england can do the same thing. The ecb cannot do it by going out and buying the obvious Government Bonds. Every single economy in europe is completely and utterly different. The bottom line is the market is too small and too closely held to make any difference. A very small market. They have been going through their local branches. French,e been buying up italian, belgium. To make this effective, they need to find assets they can buy and some bright spark has said, corporate debt. I was listening and the green room in you came up with a great quote the capitalism died five or six years ago. It does look kind of silly that the only asset they can find is to buy Corporate Bonds which will distort and give a very false impression of what is going on. It will not lead to the right behaviors. You will not be putting cash into the economy. He will have investors looking for reinvestment they can make once they sell that particular it all becomes selffulfilling. Icahn said there is a bubble in high yields. Look at the charts. If you overlaid it on the european periphery charts, they look the same. The ecb is denying any talk about it corporate debt buying plans. The rumor is moving the market. If you call that there is a bubble in the highyield space, these kinds of rumors gaining traction, when does the bubble pop . Long years of low interest rates, the fact that highgrade corporate spreads are extremely tight is not a terribly bad bubble. That is the level the corporates are going to be able to borrow at. Do they borrow when rates are so low . How can you make returns if you invest and consumers are not consuming, that will cost you. Far safer to borrow money, using it to buy back stock. This is a big crisis we have an capitalism. That is why your comment was so interesting. Many low rates are the wrong way to be going. Maybe we need to incentivize corporate to produce and manufacture. By distorting markets, you are not encouraging not. Companies. 500 95 of their earnings on dividends and buybacks this year. That is not an effective use of earnings. It is great for the shareholders. I have a floatingrate mortgage, what will happen to me . We have to talk about the bank of england. What are savers thinking of doing . No point in investing in building new factories because no one has the cash to buy the product they make. You have the european slowdown, inflation at a fiveyear low, and then you weigh that against unemployment at 6 . A couple of months ago, we had people on the show that separates will rise by the end of the year. I would have been one of them. Hink the Global Prospects we are now seeing the knock on effects and the slowdown from what looked to be a strong u. K. Economy. One of the researchers called, what about tomorrows bank of england meeting . It is irrelevant. We are now looking at longterm rates remaining very low, rather than having the horizon beginning in december. That is one of the reasons we saw such a massive shift in the futures and options market. People have changed. What does that mean for the world Global Economy . Low rates are not necessarily bad for Corporate Bonds. If youre looking to invest, you will have to continue going down the credit curve in search of risk. Even markets that look very bubbly a few weeks ago, at some point, people will dive back into high yields. It is the only place where you can get an extra 2 . Question, we get the bank of england minutes, is there a concern question mark is there a concern . There is no concern about that. Is anyone listening . Thank you very much for joining us. A quick check on one of the stocks on the move. It is heineken, a big mess. A big miss. 2 . Eken down by over is this Company Better off alone. Welcome back, i am jonathan ferro, live from the city of london. According the oil Company Board will meet later today. He currently heads the refinery and chemicals business. He will replace christophe de margerie, who was killed in a plane crash in moscow. Shares are lower after the u. K. Jane missed analyst estimates. Analyst. K. Chain missed estimates. Staying with earnings, a big miss for heineken thirdquarter sales. They are blaming the weather. Ryan chilcote joins us from the newsroom. Beer thanld less analysts thought they would sell. They sold less beer in the same period last year. There were some bright spots in the earnings, in asia and africa. You can blame the weather, it was bad in july and august. When the weather is bad, people drink less beer. A lot of people are looking at these earnings and wondering if there is something more fundamentally flawed with the situation when it comes to corporate earnings in europe. The big question, you have heineken saying they are better off alone. Sab miller wants a piece of heineken. Is the pressure on after these results . They told investors when they rejected the offer that they are going to deliver sales growth and of course, they did not deliver the sales growth the street was looking for. Firmken family is in control of this company, winning over the heineken family would take quite a bit of work. I am not sure this is the case of everybody has their price. They get 100 Million Euros per year in terms of dividends from the company. They have been in control for 150 years. The matriarch is 60 years old. Happyne heineken is very with the family being in control. Her father purdy much made it clear purdue much made it clear pretty much made it clear that he wanted the Company Never to be sold. Get itser might want to hands on heineken to prevent a takeover bid, i am not sure that they are anywhere close based on these one off earnings. Thank you. Great work. Still down by about 1. 7 . One of the stocks moving higher is yahoo , shares rose in afterhours trade last night after an earnings surprise on the upside. Investorsyer fights concerns. The numbers look good. Sales up 1. 5 . In terms of mobile, growth in mobile. They broke down the numbers for us and we got an idea. When Marissa Mayer came on board, they had no mobile form. Platform. People are looking pretty rosy about this company. There are areas of growth. It has made the shares go up a little bit. The critics have been circling the company and they have been circling Marissa Mayer. The first time we have heard from her since the alibaba ipo. Time we have further speak out since activist investors have started to write open letters. Company into two. You are going on a mergers and acquisitions spree. The tax is too high. They also hold the stake in yahoo japan. Look, we will be analyzing it. Acquisitions, 1 billion on tumblr. These acquisitions are working. We need to tackle our legacy and technology. Working andions are we will stay clever. Strategy and a process for reviewing opportunities. We will continue to seek opportunities here. With m a. Stay clever compared to the other shares. I brought back within 7 million. I am hoping you, the shareholder helping you, the shareholder. They have slashed 2000. Those activist investors love a share buyback. I know you could talk about yahoo all day. Made in europe, owned by china. We speak with one chinese vester Chinese Investor who is buying into europe. Welcome back. Bloomberg European Headquarters right here in the city of london, 30 minutes into your trading day. Ftse 100 down by 10 points. The dax pushing higher again. Ecbhappy talk about stimulus, the speculation about corporate debt. The eurozone seems to be pushing higher. Here in the u. K. , and giving good minutes in about an hour bank of england minutes in about an hour. Plenty to digest and 60 minutes. In 60 minutes. We are looking at the biggest fall today. Ikur pens, pencils, it is b of course. Strong stationery sales in europe, but the United States looking weaker. The worst performer on the stoxx 600 here in europe. Sales are improving, but profit missed analyst estimates as did the dividend payout. Tablet . Be buying a that the home space they will be wiping out a quarter of their stores by 2018. Tobacco, downican by 4 British American tobacco, down by 4 . Clearly, much regulation headwinds to britishamerican tobacco. Three stocks moving lower. The bank of england releases minutes from its october policy makers meeting this morning. Investigators will be looking to gauge appetite. Unexpectedly slowed and weak growth in europe dampened sentiment. Russia has added new conditions for resuming gas supplies to ukraine. Talks have failed to reach a deal. Russia cant gas flows in ukraine in june cut gas flows in ukraine in june. Russia and ukraine will seek to temporarily deal next week. The Federal Reserve bank in new york botched oversight of the Jpmorgan Office that led to the 6. 2 billion trading loss. That is according to a report from the feds office of the inspector general. They identified risks, but failed to follow through on their concerns. Ashas been described Berkshire Hathaway of china. It is the largest privately held conglomerate in china. Many investors are pulling out of europe right now, he is buying in. More on theow for groups investment is the senior sunaging director at fo group. Time, you bought an italian suit and you like it so much, you took a 35 stake in the company. True story. Caruso and is called im interested in the company because it is one of the best italian menswear companies in the world. Founder andas the forr permitted years many years and he took the business to its recent success. This is a contemporary version of luxury for menswear. We think the chinese understand the sophistication that comes with the italian manufacturing. Do you think italy did a good job of pushing forward the made in italy brand in china . Some really remarkable entrepreneurs in italy, especially from the fashion world. To our partner, i know them very well. They are just great people and they spent a lot of time in china and a look at china as a key Growth Market for them. Abouterage is to generate 20 to 40 of the revenue from the chinese purchase. About coming out of this dire Strait Affairs in the eurozone to wild pessimism. That is where we are right now. Outsider, what do you like . China has a long history the Chinese Consumer appreciates heritage. In western europe, many countries, there are tremendous brands and services. They would like to cap into the chinese market. I think there is a beautiful connection and someone needs to help make that. What are you doing in the Health Care Business . What do you like about it . Investment in a larger Insurance Company in portugal. This is made by the Insurance Company that contributes the insurance and health care is an important factor for portugal. It is a derivative of lifestyle change. In china is also improving quickly. Health care in china is also improving quickly. When you look at a company 3 lub med, 18 poor 18. 3 stake in club med. What do you want the company to become . It is an iconic brand. One thing if want to point out, the Lifestyle Changes for consumers, especially from china, they start to travel a lot in the world. China surpassed germany to be the largest exporting country in the world. This year, we have already reached 119 million trips. China, people make about 3 billion trips within china. That is a huge number. I think this is a very important. Rend lets say you get a controlling stake. We will help in beautiful resorts in china. It is becoming a household name in beijing and shanghai. Are you going up to liverpool. Everybody wants a piece of that game. I will support liverpool. Thank you very much. Lets check in on one company on the move this morning. The stock is up by 1. 7 . Welcome back, live from the city of london. It is time to talk about the aluminum producer. The company said the Global Market for aluminum does remain tight. Joining us is the seo on the line from the ceo on the line from oslo. A nice beat across the board. We have revenues beating as well. You would focus on two things. Second point is the improved operational costs within most of our business areas. Do you think you could maintain this trajectory . You are not concerned about falling metal prices . What is the experience with your company . We see it continued in the u. S. Which is a to china, significant player in this a little bit of the concerning point is the european development. 61 of your revenue came from the region. We were quite happy with being in aluminum and the outlook. He production situation given the developments in the economy right now, is that optimistic, the current forecasts . We have lifted the forecast for this year. For an overall global perspective we remain optimistic for the quarter. Commentshas been some around your ceo. How has this affected the government the team internally . It has been business as usual during the summertime. Much focused on operational improvements that we can monitor and control ourselves. Thank you for enjoying us for joining us this morning. Great news. You have stock higher this morning. Cfo of norsk hydro. Here are some companies on the move, heineken shares fell short. The company blamed a voluntary fallen volatile environment. Shares rising over 3 , the beat comes as marissa fire faces activist shareholder Marissa Mayer faces activist shareholders. Receiving 790 dollars for the sale of its stake. Fungus ue to buy about growth at home and in china. The stock is up by two point 83 . Tell us about the contrast. Light atbe seeing the the end of the tunnel. We have to be very careful because the situation is very. Ontracted between weekends 44 . , they also launched the models in china. The situation is definitely not america,ill latin 38 drop in sales. They had a 62 drop. At the moment, europe and china are up thinking this results but they have to be careful about the job. Bitf investors were little comforted this morning, is that. Onfidence about pujols brother he is raising their four cats for the sheer. Theyre planning a four to 5 growth initially. , he is developing a new model where he is trying to focus on less models than before. , the trend is. Round two or 3 we like to see growth. It does not have to be big growth. We like to see steady growth. Some ed create peugeot is expecting him to report. Theyre opening a factory in. Hina thank you very much for joining us. The stocks are up 29 . Guy johnson joins us for preview. I think it is probably we are trying to find exactly where the company goes from here. We saw a big push by total for the more risky areas of the world does that continue. We will talk about how ceos just want them around the world. That we shouldng encourage . We will talk about all of that. The meeting taking place a little bit later on stage we think. Well be talking to the. Onexecutive chairman activism,lk about what is happening at yahoo , the trial out aig. Some interesting stories out there. Busy. The pulse is up in nine minutes time. A quick check on european equities. The ftse is little low, down by 4. 5 points. The dax is 45 points higher. Plenty of speculation. Al right denied by some quarters. But the markets love a good rumor. Welcome back. Live from the city of london. It is time to doug about russia. Talk about russia. Russia and ukraine failed to reach an agreement. Moscow and kiev will try again next week. Ryan chilcote with more. How much does it bring us to a european wide gasp crisis gas crisis . Nothing good in this whatsoever. Going into these talks, the expectations have been quite high. Menonly were these three meeting in brussels, that the russian president also jumped on the phone to find a deal. The end of last week i was in milan. Merkel spent most of her time talking about gas. There was a huge expectation that this was going to go through. It didnt. The ukrainians do not have any money. Theyve asked the western europeans and the eu is thinking about it. Equities a little bit lower in london, ftse 100 down by a couple of points. The pound is that session those. Just over 30 minutes time, you will get the bank of england minutes. Look at the comments on the slowdown. Could be a very interesting read it about 34 minutes. That is the big one in the next hour. That is it for on the move. If you want to talk markets, follow me on twitter. The pulse is next. Future, we will look at who is next in line. Gas deal delayed, russia and ukraine failed to resolve the natural gas dispute. Street, we on wall will hear from carl icahn about what it means to corporate governance. Welcome. You are watching the pulse

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