About how his they has fostered an environment of economic growth. And we will talk about silicon valley. Mark we will have a look at european equities 30 minutes to minutes to the end of the trading session. Stocks are rising. The risk rally continues. The european benchmark, the stoxx 600 gaining for third day. Highest since august 2015. Expectations that macron will be the ultimate victor in the French Elections. In just under two weeks all these currencies are rising against the dollar today. The euro gaining for the best run since november after the biggest ride since june yesterday. About 1. 3 , the highest since november. In theelds are rising ecb, getting closer as we head to tightens meeting policy. That is the big question ahead of that meeting on thursday. Lets get to christiane the on. Dior. Istiane the biggest increase for nine years, the record high for the shares in christiane dior. The luxury billionaire moving to consolidate control over christiane dior. Between one billion euros, that is 260 euros a share. 50 premium the mondays close. They will unite ownership of your of dior. This is the first time the family has control to 74 stake. This is volvo, the truck maker up by 7. 4 today, the biggest increase since april 2015. The highest in 10 years. Firstquarter earnings surging 58 . The truck maker reducing spending, selling more Construction Equipment. Year, for 2012 letters 2012 levels, ericsson will intensify the asset class. They will get rid of more than a billion dollars in on probable contracts. In its bid to revive the aging network supplier. They fell more than an estimated 2. 7 lower. Of 90 minutes into the trading day in the u. S. Abigail, how is it looking . It is looking like a rally. We have averages up for the second day in a row. Look at the dow, up more than 1 eating yesterdays gains. On the week, the week is young. Nasdaq, the the number at 6000. We are continuing to see the risk on rally that we saw spurred by the results of the first round of the french president ial election. Lets take a look at the major averages since the u. S. President ial election. The gains. Btv 6083. Ook at g thelue on top, we have nasdaq, up nearly 16 in almost six months. Those are extraordinary returns. Behind that we have a doubt in yellow, up nearly 15 and then lagging to some degree but still big returns in six months, the s p 500 up more than 11 . This risk on rally has been reignited for the French Election results plus the promise of a tax plan and the possibility that the Corporate Tax rate could be cut to 15 . As for what is driving the gains today, lets look at the top performers for the s p 500. Lots of earnings winners hear from up 6 , caterpillar up more than 6 . All these Companies Beating in a big way. Interestingly, a mixed quarter. They mix up revenues. But the indonesian mine market is back on track, so exports are coming back out of there. Caterpillar put up a huge beat on strength in china. Biogen put up a big beat in the top and bottom lines and apparently there muscle disease drug kicked in, beating estimates by three times and finally mcdonalds, a big beat on a big mac makeover. The interesting here. You see lots of strength for some of these earnings in the u. S. Mark a big mac makeover. There is a tongue twister. Lets see the earnings, lifting u. S. Stocks, european stocks near 20 month high. Running is now, jonathan rowe, legal and general investment management. A total of more than a trillion dollars in asset management. The risk rally post macronle pen victory. How long is it going to run . I think it will run until the realization of the parliamentary elections comes around. The second round, which market seems to be largely discounting now, they think he has it against le pen but of course, not just because of their extreme policies but because he is so centrally staged. Hes that everybody to the left knocked out of the competition and he will also take a decent chunk of the votes to the right. A couple of got weeks. Things can happen in a couple of weeks. You can have a scandal, something on those lines, and le pen trying to realign herself to get around macron and onto the far left wing voters. You see her symbolically disassociating herself with the National Front party for a couple of weeks while she tried to woo those voters. It is the establishment versus the antiestablishment election. Mark an interesting dehedging taking place with probably counts. Is it worth keeping some hedges on . Even with a 20 increase, is it the difference between the two should one sustain some of their hedging . I think the risk now is pretty skewed. Upside is the second round going as planned. It feels limited. Particularly in the betting markets, around 12 . Youve got to remember, two weeks before trump won he was at 8 in the betting odds. So when the markets get so on the back of an event like this you have to worry. Vonnie i have to ask you, at what point if not already are the markets looking past the second round and onto the parliamentary elections . There are two of those in june. Absolutely and they will be a lot more splintered. Macron made a big deal of the fact that having won the president ial election he will be able to carry the parliamentary election as well. He will get enough votes in conjunction with some coalition party, and he can get over the line, get over and in that way he can get a proper president ial role but he has a real risk here. If you cant get a majority and he ends up in a lameduck president , a the Prime Minister sets the legislative agenda and he is a bit like the queen. Vonnie i want to just let you hear something that one of our guests this morning had to say. Michael hasenstab, cio. He had a warning. It is probably one of the biggest financial bubbles out there. Economic growth and inflation, if you look at foreign buyers that are starting , these big numbers dont make sense. It is kind of like walking on a lake in april. That is still frozen but eventually it is going to crack. A pretty extreme view. I guess there are lots of extreme views out there. What is yours right now . We are short u. S. Treasuries but we wouldnt go so far as to say we are standing on the edge of an abyss. Reason being you have to think about, in any year there is a chance of a recession. If you take the most likely outcome which is an increasing u. S. But then you allow for some andability of a recession, generally you allow for a one in six probability for a session a recession in any year, we are getting higher than that because it is towards the end of the current cycle and those odds will start to rise. The backdrop, when you do a probability deal, you are not that far away from fair value but we would agree there has been a big low, we have been short treasuries. We have seen a bubble in this way and actually it is quite easy to get to those numbers. The real question below all of this is why hasnt u. S. Wage inflation picked up more. There is very little real Wage Inflation and that is what we push for more. Mark speaking in the bond credit markets, one of our stories today, investors pulling out of highyield funds as growth favors stocks. Do you concur . Should one cell highyield bonds and credit with the ecb paper . The next big risk, that is an exception out there. We have definitely seen around about recently where we had spreads winding and that was on the back of negative lows. We have seen that receipt climbed back in and that is often a good reminder of the fundamentals. The fundamentals are that we freewheeling on the cycle. A lot of the Energy Sector have been wiped out or restructured and now we have this underbid on the energy side so we would agree that the value is not screaming by like it was four backdrop, but in this of very little global inflation, what we have tended to do is own a lot of those middle risks, high yields, emerging market, hard currency desk. When we do our own inflation risks we tend to that in tend to do that in u. S. Risks. When it starts to build that is the most likely region. But yes, we wouldnt be as negative as that. Mark jonathan rowe, head of multiassets legal and general asset management. We will be talking about emerging markets. Vonnie it is a chaotic wells fargo meeting. We will bring you some headlines in a moment. First, lets get to first word news with courtney donohoe. Good morning. In the u. S. President trump tweeted today that he has not changed his position on the wall with mexico. He says it will get belts. Earlier he signaled he may hold off on demands for money to build it. There was also the threat of a Government Shutdown this weekend. He told conservative journalists that he made wait until december two ask congress to pay for the wall. He asked that the money be included in the bill needed this week to keep the government running. He is setting up a potential battle with taxes over House Speaker paul ryan. Cutting taxes on individuals and slashing the Corporate Tax rate to 15 . Ryan has warned that cutting Corporate Taxes the less than 20 would add to the deficit and he has been opposed to that. Trump saysivanka childcare will be part of copperheads of tax reform. The president s daughter is defending her fathers stance towards women, calling him a tremendous champion of supporting families. She joins german chancellor Angela Merkel and others today for talks on encouraging womens economic empowerment. Told thecis has egyptian people that he is coming to cairo this week as a friend and messenger of peace. In a videotaped message released by the vatican, francis says he hopes the pilgrimage will be an embrace of consolation and an encouragement to all christians through the middle east. Two bombings killed christians on palm sunday. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im courtney donohoe. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you for that. More headlines on wells fargo now. The shareholder meeting, the annual one has been interrupted at least five times at this point by disenfranchised, unhappy shareholders trying to make a point. We have the Ceo Tim Sloan and also the chairman trying to defend wells fargo, saying they are not at the point of reelecting directors to the board so there is no need for people in the audience to give up that point. You will be able to follow along and watch the webcast. Sloan saying the entire board is there with more work to do but they are on the right path. And our reporting says the entire board will probably survive a shareholder vote later today. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york i am vonnie quinn. Mark live from london i am mark barton counting you down to the european close working minutes away. Lets get to emerging markets. Earl are today earlier today we spoke to frank when templeton about where he is shifting his money. We have sold out of poland and hungary and ireland and really deployed those assets into other parts of the world. Latin america, for example. Mark back with us, john rowe, head of multiasset funds. Well start with the chart. The white line is the emerging market currency index which has been heading upwards. Blue line is the bloomberg commodity index, a gauge of 23 commodities. They mirror each other. What is going to give . On the way down, youve got two concurrent problems. A slowdown in Commodity Prices which was partially caused by the change in the opec stance on the oil side and the unexpected resilience of shale oil. You have a combination affect pretty much from the start of 2016, where you start to get the better news out of china. So the growth site is announcing its normal policy. For me that is one of the biggest things to change as well as the adjustment in those countries that needed to adjust to a term of trade shock like a big fall in the commodity price. When you see now is people getting comfortable in the tail risks around some of those commodity producers, such as russia for example. At the same time there is the big buyer commodities. China has also dissipated them so that gives confidence to the emergingmarket complex. When you think about it that way youve asked the october conference with china. They will be keen not to have a hiccup between now and then so he will put his foot on the gas right up to the point where he has to reduce pollution. That is the photo. You have thisn, nice mix going on in emerging markets where Commodity Prices are to some degree supported and at some time the risk around some of these emerging markets dissipate. Mark the em box outperforming stocks by double in 2017, john, is that sustainable . No. In certain areas it has gotten out of control. For example, in corporate the spreads are now tighter than normal governments in that does feel like an idea that it isnt sustainable. On the team they have been very negative on the corporate governments. It is a trend of outperformance that cannot be continued. There are areas like that where you can see bubbles forming, and there is definitely an era an area that we are very confident on, but they have had quite a long way to run. Vonnie and then of course all this Political Uncertainty isnt helping when it comes to currencies and forecasting and where they will be. So how do you take a position in the emerging market where you dont know if it will exceed to the euro area anymore . We have been negative and we remain negative. We understand that some of the fundamentals are improving and inflation will peak but against that backdrop, there is this risk not a guaranteed outcome of an undermining of some of their institutions with the move to a president ial approach and with more farreaching powers we have seen some of the concerns of when trump got into power in the u. S. And there were similar concerns related to turkey. Although in fairness these talks have been going on for Something Like 50 years. It is reasonable to say we are never going to get there anyway so we should top stop talking about it so he can move on with his agenda. In poland we have exited our positions. We feel the dynamics are weakening and it is going to be an easy bias going forward, which might help beat the current seal on the bonds. We have moved into other regions. India, but not south africa anymore . With the rand above 30 now . We have not been keen on south africa. It was painful for a while but fundamentally, there is this ongoing power battle. There is some talk of actually making the votes at the Party Conference confidential and on that basis, it would be a much greater threat. We remain negative on the fundamentals there and on the real risk of rising populism to try and hold on to power. Mark i need a quick answer. Developingset class and why right now . Favorite asset class and why . For us it would be the u. S. Inflation in bonds. We like them because we still feel you are getting to hedge your real risk for little cost. It is clear the trump package will look to push up spending further, increase confidence. The economy doesnt need that but what it will do is drive down the Unemployment Rate, particularly in combination with his immigration curving and his changing to the visa requirements as well as the wall which is consistently insisting will be built without the need for funding. That is a way to balance out the nominal assets as well. Mark jonathan rowe, head of multiasset funds, Legal General investment management. Vonnie always a fascinating conversation. Still ahead, another one, the head of global macro and Asset Allocation. The shares his thoughts on european markets. And why there is more upside ahead for the european economy. That is next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. Mark live from london, i am mark barton. With the european close minutes away, lets look at the Bloomberg Business flash. Look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. At caterpillar, emerging from a fouryear slump. The worlds biggest maker of Construction Equipment posted firstquarter earnings with more than double the median estimate. Caterpillar also raised expectations for sales and profit in 2017, based in part on an improving outlook on china. The chairman of honeywell says europe needs to change its social labor laws. David coke on Bloomberg Television on the confidence of increasing the workforce. Look at france. It is very difficult to do business there. If you ever try to lay some of the off or make an adjustment to business, all that teaches you is, im not hiring here anymore. Mark he had just stepped down as honeywell ceo after 15 years. Costsng up efforts to cut and get rid of unprofitable contracts. Jorge eckhard is trying to revive it, and he spoke with bloomberg elevation. Networks a business in. We are stable and we see we are actually very competitive with our platform. I was introduced about a year ago. 50 penetration and we are on track to do that. Mark ericsson announced that he would take over as chief executive on october 26 and the stocks gained 26 through monday. That is your latest business flash for this hour. We are minutes away from the end of the tuesday session. Check out what is happening to stocks. This is bloomberg. Live from london and new york, this is the european close. Stocks finishing up higher for the fifth consecutive day. The restaurant since midfebruary. Augusthest close since 2015. Investors continuing to think and feel that macron, the centrist candidate and france will emerge victorious. That is giving a boost to risky assets. A big decline yesterday as you can see from this chart. That is coming down 19 basis points. It has narrowed to its lowest level since january. We have come up a little bit today. 51 basis points. Look where we were in february. Concerns were the greatest that emergewould victorious. She still could. The polls tell us macron is most likely to emerge victorious. Yesterday, i love this chart. The French Election result boosting the euro. It is only against sterling that options see gains for the shared currency over the next year. , euros risk reversal data against the pound, the again, the swiss franc, and the dollar. The risk reversal rate stands above zero. Below zero against the other currencies. Brexit, the snap election that takes place in june. Europes richest people yesterday adding 37. 5 billion to their fortunes after that rally in the stock market. That is a fantastic chart. I wish i had longer to tell you about that. He will get back to that. I want to get to abigail. What is going on . Abigail we are looking at a rally for the major averages in the u. S. They are all rallying in a big way. The dow is up more than 1 , as is the russell 2000. Dow on pace for its best day since march 1. On a two day basis, it is on pace for its best today rally since right after the election. Lots of strength as the Risk Appetite has been reinvigorated by the first round of that president ial election in france, and the possibility of a tax plan. As we go across asset classes, as we look at the haven assets over the last five days, not only do we have gold, bonds, and yen rallying today. I am sorry, selling off. Gold is down more than 1. 5 . The 10 year yield off 14 basis points. We have the dollar gaining against the yen. Vix breaking a key level of support. On the year, these haven assets are rallying. Gold is on pace for its best year since 2010. A few weeks ago people were worried the whole reflation trend was retracing. On ins side, clearly risk the reflation trade. We have stocks and the bloomberg dollar index rallying. Look at this. As stocks continued to climb higher, we have the s p 500 up. The dollar index is down, bonds down. This might be reversing despite the fact we have stocks rallying. Vonnie donald trump is delivering the keynote address at the u. S. Holocaust Memorial Museum as part of their week long remember this celebration in remembrance of the holocaust. The president saying things like israel is a monument to the jewish people and has called the holocaust historys darkest hour. You can follow that live at tv. President trump to make sure humanity never ever forgets. Mark i am mark barton. Vonnie this is the european close on bloomberg markets. That timetocks extend rally off the first round of the french president ial election. More insight on market strategy, lets head over to eric tasker, who is with us again. Eric thank you. Mcveigh,with henry head of global Asset Allocation at kkr. We need to talk about the second round of the French Election. Emmanuel macron is against marine le pen. We should look at what the polls say. They show a 60 of ability of macron winning the second round. Do you feel as confident about these polls as the markets do today and yesterday . Henry i do. I think we have made it through the most difficult period. Macron is antiestablishment. View at kkr is he would be embraced by being somewhat antiestablishment relative to donald trump or Hillary Clinton went Hillary Clinton was perceived to be establishment in the u. S. Marine le pen has been around for some time. She is not a new force like donald trump. It is not over until it is over. But our base assumption is that france will move forward. Recently, right before the election, growth remains strong. It is better than what most people think. I think the markets are reacting to that. Eric lets talk about european growth. We can get to how much of a tailwind or not a manual micron would be for Emmanuel Macron would be. Why is it surprisingly positive . Henry we do a lot of quantitative models and research, it is the Monetary Policy. When you look at the ecb with zero interest rates, that has a huge stimulus effect on the economy. Picture in ther u. S. Where Monetary Policy was moving forward, but there was no cyclical admission to drive Growth Ignition to drive growth until housing picked up in the u. S. We are not seeing a lot of consumer activity. Should look for Monetary Policy, cyclical parts of the economy, including housing. Monetary policy is still dominating. Our view is that cyclical components will pick up. Eric is it fair to say europe is two years behind the u. S. Recovery . Henry that is fair to say. Two years to two and a half. What we see with must develop the economys is this trend of consumption over trade, and a onl focus real focus investment. Eric experiences like . Henry travel, health care, wellness, those kinds of experiences. Using the internet more effectively. We have a company that allows you to buy your train ticket online versus going to the train station. Simple things that make it easier for the consumer. Eric what about fiscal policy and structural change . We live through gridlock and america at a time of extraordinary monetary stimulus. Are the europeans doing a better job of governing . Henry another thing that i think is missed by most people is that in 2012, this austerity was 150 basis point drag on european growth. European growth is never going to be 5 , so that is a big number. Today we are estimating a 20 point addition to growth. It is quite a tailwind. Matures and some of the political rhetoric settles down, they will have to address some of the huge debt loads that part of the world faces. I dont think that is the question today. Eric how long can that surprisingly good growth in europe last given the challenges of the monetary union, which have not gone away and the persistent tensions over issues like immigration . I think immigration is a secular issue. Eric with a long tail. Henry and thats not going away. You need to respect that monetary stimulus in the near will overpower any borrowing. As that cyclical part of the economy except, monetary stimulus will pull back. The currency will probably go up. It has been a favorable tailwind. Longerterm, i worry about two things, immigration in the middle east as well as from africa, which i think it is sometimes not spoken about enough, and second there is a widening difference in europe between germany and italy. When you look at germany, thirdyear record surplus, Unemployment Rate 3. 9 . Italy growing slower than japan. Unemployment rate is 12 or 13 . You have a diverging story within europe. France has gotten a lot of headlines. That is the divergence i would focus on. To a is europe doomed ikethsouth divide l creditor states and debtor states . I got to go tok breakfast with one of the ecb leaders where he was speaking. Know we aret as we halfway across the river. That is an interesting way to friend. Well have to make changes to get to the other side. The european project has been going on for 60 years. There will have to be some additions and subtractions to make it work given that divergence. Eric select the most important cular or circle or trends. Henry something under the cyclical parts of the economy, youll see consumption do well. Structurally, there are two things im concerned about. We are worried about global trade. We have talked about this. In asia, you see the same thing. That is slowing. The second thing is this immigration issue. Africas population growth will be 1. 5 billion people over the next 20 years. If 5 of those people coming to europe, which is the run rate, that is the size of germany or the u. K. You need to have a policy to address that. Eric if youre thinking about these things, and people agree with you, the question becomes how do you allocate . I put together a chart of your expected returns over the 2015 to 2020. 2020. Y asset class word by asset class 2020 per iod by asset class. Lets look at stocks. They have already had a good run. They are 13 to 14 the last 12 months. A much more room did i have . Our message has been too lenient on the large cap. On large cap. The Banking System is changing. Equity that isg less deluded. They are selling off balance sheets. For usa Good Environment and our competitors. Inre is a notable growth carveouts. A lot of corporations are trying to get their foot in doing this relief period. Eric what would you underweight or short . Henry i would stay out of european sovereign debt. There is no reason german bunds should trade over. That makes no sense. I would stay away from that. There are a lot of defensive Growth Stocks in europe that are very expensive. I would take a negative i. S. On that bias on that. Eric thank you. That is henry mcvey. Getbetter people to turn to global value then henry mcvey of kkr. Vonnie thank you. Job growth booming. I will be talking to governor gary herbert of utah. This is bloomberg. Live from london and new york. Vonnie this is the european close on bloomberg markets. Becauseoking offscreen our special guest with us, if you want a formula for success, look at utah. Rated number one in 2012 among u. S. States in future livability. Today, utah is considered among the Fastest Growing states. What has made utah boom . Knowsn to somebody who the state all too well, republican governor gary herbert. Governor herbert thank you. Vonnie lets get a little proof for what we are telling people. Some of that is brought to us by by ourrful column today executive editor. I am highlighting utah. This is the percentage change in employment. The betterof performing states. Tell us how you have been able to boost growth. Governor herbert we have graded a friendly environment for the risk taker. We have been recognized as the best place in america for businesses and careers. We have lowered tax rates. We have regulation reform. We have empowered the private sector. We are growing dramatically. Vonnie what is the effective Corporate Tax rate in utah . Y it is definitely governor herbert it is a flat rate across the board. The only exceptions are charitable givings for the individual. 5 for the corporations as a flat rate. We are competitive that way. We have low property taxes, lower sales taxes. Our overall Tax Obligation is competitive with the rest of the country. Vonnie how do you manage to have a 5 tax rate and fund all of your Public Services and infrastructure needs . Governor herbert it is a challenge. We are the fastestgrowing states in america today. We havent an efficient government. We believe in government. We believe it should be limited in our last. We are effective in utilizing taxpayer dollars. We have fewer state employees today than you had back in 2002 in spite of the fact that we have about 850,000 more people that call utah on. That is efficiency. Vonnie i want to prove this with the graph that we can bring growth rate. It is double the national average. This is Median Income. You can have a look at this at 8038. The bart chart makes it look even more stunning. Is this at the expense of surrounding states . Governor herbert no. It is not a zero sum game. We have allowed the private sector to innovate and grow economically, creating wealth and creating jobs in lifting people out of poverty. Poverty rate is one third the national average. Youth poverty is half the national average. Vonnie that is one reason why utah is booming. We have a graph of the different demographics in utah. You can see under 18 makes up 30 of the utah economy, where nationally it is 22. 9 . Is that contributing or a drain . Governor herbert it is a twoedged sword. We have young and energetic and productive. Our industry is hightech savvy. Our workforce is one of the best in the nation. We are making it better with increased educational attainment. It also challenges us and how do we take care of classroom sizes, make sure we have a good education. A couple weeks ago, u. S. News world report said the Education System in utah is the ninth best overall in america, and our Higher Education is secondbest overall. We are paying less for than any other state in america. Vonnie if we take the whole state, that was the previous graph we showed. The Median Income for households is about 4000 more per household. We want to ask you about the individual companies, including goldman sachs, which has its worth Largest Global office in utah. Ebay Customer Service centers are there. In thee right here United States of america. Governor herbert we said to people if you want to increase your bottom line, increase your market share, there is no better location to do that them from utah as your headquarters. People are locating, colocating from other parts of the country. We do a lot of international business. We speak 120 languages in utah. We are very attuned to line up with the demands of the marketplace. Vonnie is some of that due to immigrants . Governor herbert a lot of it is because of the mormon missionary graham. Young men and women go and live a couple of years in Foreign Countries and learn the language and come back. That allows us to interface in the global marketplace than any other state in america today. That is part of our success. Vonnie they emigrate of early and come back with skills. Governor herbert that is right. We are fastgrowing. We have microsoft, boeing, procter gamble. The First Manufacturing plant in north america in over 35 years was in utah. Vonnie you are a republican governor, but you say to people of your state are happy to have the federal government play some role in their lives. How are you getting along with the current president , and more broadly, the Current Republican Party . Governor herbert we get along well with everybody. Weagree with those things can. I think this new administration gives us a new opportunity for a new beginning. I am hopeful, mike pence is a good friend of mine. We have more governors involved in this administration, which is a good thing. States are the laboratories of democracy. We can learn from each other. You can learn from utah. We are learning from other states. Utah is a great model that should be copied by other states and in washington, d c vonnie we have to leave it there. Other governors will be calling you. That is utahs governor gary herbert. Mark fantastic. Lets have a quick reminder of what happened to european equities at the end of tuesdays session. Investors remain optimistic that Emmanuel Macron will be the ultimate victor of the French Election. The euro continuing to rise. Gaining for the fourth day. Restaurant since november. Best run since november. Vonnie it is 5 00 p. M. In london and midnight in hong kong. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Vonnie from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, we will take you from washington to San Francisco and beijing. Here are the top stories around the world. In just a few short minutes, david gura will be speaking to wilbur ross, u. S. Commerce secretary. A chaotic wells fargo annual meeting currently underway in florida. It has already been interrupted several times by angry shareholders. The entire board of wells fargo will probably survive about by a narrow a vote by a narrow margin. I will be speaking to one investor voting against the reelection of 12 of the 15 directors
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