Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20160708

In dallas. The demonstration is being held over the Fatal Shootings of two black men. Manus youre welcome to countdown. The very latest, we go to the front page. This is what we are looking at. Were talking about the dallas shootings. Lives protestck march in dallas. We understand officers were shot from elevated positions at about 8 45 p. M. Local time. Interest has turned themselves in any suspect was in custody after. The dallas to Police Department said with heavy hearts there devastated to report the fourth officer has been killed. The shootings, this attack comes in the aftermath of two more young incidents where two black men were shot in louisiana and minnesota. These protest marches have turned into something much more significant. This was a black lives matter protest. As we get more information on that situation in dallas, we will bring that to you. We are getting live reports across twitter and the bloomberg terminal. That is everything we know at this stage. As we get more, i will bring it to you. It is jobs day. Nevermind year itch, the sevenyear in your marriage. Eight year in terms, we have traded at levels we havent seen since 1985. Hit lows,ends to until will not be seen q1 of 2017. Crumbling is the word he used in this article. Of cours,e it has dropped this week. I want to show you risk later, lets get straight to it. Stocks a little bit lower. Dollar yen, another lurch towards 100. Without that with a number of other issues. We heading for 100 against the dollar. This is the best performing currency in the g 10. Crude is up. 8 . We are trimming our losses this week. We had dropped as much as 7 . A 45 bid, 51 off of the government stockpile. That was less than forecast in. To 1400. D it up this is the first backtoback daily drop since the brexit move. Get more from dallas, we will bring it to you. Now your bloomberg first world news. The Dallas Police department has two snipers shot 11 officers during a protest, killing 4 of them. The gunfire broke out in the evening estimates traders gather to protest a Fatal Police Shooting of black men in louisiana and minnesota this week. President obama says those shooting should trouble americans. President obama the unseen tragedies like this too many times. They are symptomatic of a of racialt disparities that exist in our criminal justice system. The u. K. Will have its second woman Prime Minister with just the race down to two runners. Conservative Party Members will them as ther of next leader. Cameding Brexit Campaigner last in the second round of voting. He was eliminated from the race. Has closed Financial Markets and schools. At least one person has been killed. Of 2016 hasphoon sustained winds of 200 kilometers an hour. All Flights Canceled on friday morning. Highspeed rail service is suspended until late afternoon. The philippines also suspended classes. Has reported a big jump in car sales in june. Deliveries rose 19 from one year ago. Expected growth was given by suvs and electric cars. Eu hass decision to live an Immediate Impact on the u. K. That is according to the accounting and Business Advisory firm. It says sales at midmarket retailers fell 3. 6 last month. That is the worst june in more than a decade. Roughlyreimbursement of 600,000 pounds that it spent fighting allegation it stole the opening riff to stairway to heaven. And singer are entitled to have their legal fees paid because of the improper allegations. Global news 20 frowny today by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. You can find more stories at top ago. Manus markets, markets, markets, im not singing a song. Lets get to haidi standing by with the market moves. Yen going towards 100. Energy is under pressure. It was only a moment of reprieve. you said just about all of it. What do you need me for . It is been a pretty quiet session until the last hour or so. Developments in dallas came streaming through. We did see at the worst we had the yen hitting at that 100 spot. The of now sense come off of those highs, and still sitting 52 at the moment. We have a lot of interest. We had the 10 year hitting record lows. It was in the negative territory. We are seeing this safe haven demand play out as well. Elsewhere around the region in terms of these currencies, youre seeing a little bit of a recovery in the aussie dollar. There is a political sitomer situation there political situation there. It is stabilizing now. It does appear that the Prime Minister will be able to retain his lead and return to office. That is helping lend some stability. Lets take look at the equities outlook. The regional benchmark is down by 4 10 of 1 . We have some nervousness on payroll. Brexit, it is time to focus back on the u. S. And what the fed will or will not do for the rest of the year. And how will this play out. The nikkei is down by about half a percent. That stronger yen is still continuing. I go into the upper half elections on sunday in japan. That is widely seen as a vote of approval. Were watching that very keenly. The fx are flat at the moment. That is giving back the earlier moves that we saw. We have some weakness coming through from shanghai. It is all about those payroll numbers. Manus haidi, that is why we need you. You add value. The top line, and digging deeper. The Asset Management says it is extending the ban on withdrawals. Fundis from a property that goes into monday. Seven funds have suspended payouts in the wake of britains vote to leave the eu. Theyre also halting sale of u. K. Assets. This is according to people with knowledge of the matter. Nejra is standing by. Aberdeen giving investors more time to reconsider their orders. They did something rather different to the rest of the market. Take me through it. Nejra that is right. Extending, aberdeen into monday this freeze on assets to give investors more time to reconsider. The ceo said the feedback to the approach has been positive. Aberdeen is one of seven u. K. Property funds worth 18 billion pounds, 23 billion. Those are frozen assets in the wake of brexit on concerns about commercial property. What aberdeen has done is that it cut the valley of a Property Fund by 17 . It did suspend those redemption so investors to ask with a moneyback have time to reconsider. That has been extended until monday. This is, of course, over the concerns of commercial property. Commercial Property Values could fall by as much as 20 in the three years after the u. K. Leaving the eu. Was legal andhad general say that it was adjusting the value of the Property Fund by an additional 10 . That is the latest in terms of commercial property. Were keeping a close eye on any other asset freezes the might come after this. Thathas happened here is it is temporarily halting the sale of its u. K. Assets. There were at least seven bidders for these assets. People say that now at least 4 bidders have pulled out in the wake of brexit. Is still keen to continue with the sale process. What they will do is have a Board Meeting later this morning to discuss the next step for the u. K. Business. Is an all female race for the leadership of this country and the conservative party. How does this end up . Nejra we are down to two. The home secretary and the energy mnister, theresa may actually got more than double eadsom did in the ballots among conservatives. Grassrootw go to Party Members. In terms of the differentials between the two candidates, theresa may is seen as the more experience of the two. Boris johnson has actually given his support to leadsom. On the other hand, we have the sun, the most daily popular paper getting its endorsement to theresa may. In terms of their approaches to negotiations, theresa may has said we have to go slow whereas leadsom once the process to go marcus lee. Both onell, they are separate sides of the argument. Thank you very much with the latest from the city of london. Of, to try and make sense this. A couple of graphs and charts to put this property issue in context. The deal volume in the u. K. Has been collapsing play brexit. The size of the u. K. Commercial. Roperty, these account for 7 how concerned are you about the shuttering of funds this week . That refers back to what carney said about the financial stability. It seems lost on the fundamental issue right now with regard to the u. K. It is far too early. He stressed the technical factors. You own a liquid structure and offset redemptions. You offer a framework that people are allowed to withdraw. Now it seems like when you have suddenly findyou you have liquidity mismatch. By definition, you dont know what youre adequate liquidity ratio should be with funds like this until after the event. Manus that pie chart right there, what i am trying to get everyone is saying it is 2007. Is it . But 30 is a different situation. The regulation is different. Is anyone year 2007 . Geoffrey no. Three things, Central Banks are much better equipped to deal with things like this. If you look at sterling, that is a good gauge. They are not seeing anything. When we saw to execute these asions, the funding strain mark carney mentioned. The overall exposure on the banking side that is limited. Even if banks marked down these assets it is not an issue. Manus we talking but try to measure risk. If you are watching you want to 1950, not the year of my birth. This is the cost of insuring u. K. Debt. They are ratcheting higher. They are no where near the levels of 2007. We are seeing the volume and the size of coverage. Barclays, the trading is about 50 . Rbs, the trading is up by 87 . Btv 1965, that causes me to be concerned that u. K. Assets. Are you shaving asset exposure . Geoffrey we have and these allocations in the wake of the brexit. Just take a step back and have a look at the overall situation for the u. K. There is still a lot of uncertainty. I wouldnt use i wouldnt use the word contagion. Once you use the word infection that is the fear. Are you see problems of commercial real estate and these uncertainties, that affects other segment of the u. K. Economy. Ultimately, it can lead to a rise in provisioning. You have a reason to have greater risk. You look at that rather than systemic contagion. Manus what do you reckon . Geoffrey it is very flat. For the nextat way few quarters or so. Rate cuts are coming. Those conversations not by christmas. Where the focus has been shifted. That is not what were looking for right now. Manus what next week be in play . Geoffrey that is what the market is looking at. Manus that would be like when Central Banks to things that shocked the market. that would not be a shock anymore. You have this to work with. You want to firstly do a 25. Asis point preemptive move the next phases may be due five or 10 or things like that. If you do it that way, it is like cutting a bullet. Efficacy of the things like that. If you want to send a message right now looking white guilt yields are if you look at that it is not just pricing and rate cuts. Central banks want to stress that they have the tools available. Manus we will pick up, we have the Guild Auction to get through and were back. Here is your day ahead. Summary highlights, production data at 1 30 p. M. We have the weeks take a number. Nato leaders including barack obama and David Cameron met for a twoday meeting in warsaw in poland. Up next, you have heard this song. Work, work, work, what will the u. S. Jobs data say about the feds rate hike . We have a preview for the nonfarm payroll. It is 1 20 p. M. On a rather foggy hong kong harbor. That is what you call smog. It is 6 21 here in london. It is 1 21 in new york. There are traders were having a rough night sleep because it is payroll day. Hang seng indicated is going down. Rosalind, good day. Dallas Police Department is to sniper shot 11 officers during a protest, killing 4 of them. Demonstrators gathered to protest the Fatal Police Shootings of black men in louisiana and minnesota this week. Cardiff still has halted the sale of its asset after the business is plenty to uncertainty in the wake of the brexit vote first of it is according to people with knowledge of the matter. Is still keentata to sell the business. There could be a possible adjustment in his Company Strategy after brexit. He spoke to bloomberg as the celebrated 90 years in business with the catwalk show. Weve seen the prices if the pound keeps losing. Then we maybe want to think about it. We dont want to sell cheaper than paris or italy, that is for sure. Rosalind that is your Bloomberg Business flash. Thank you very much. In the wake of the brexit about, jobs report will take more important than usual. With the preview 0,000 jobs, that is with the forecast projects when the u. S. Bureau of labor statistics nonfarm payrolls. If true that would be a big rebound after mays lackluster growth of just 38,000 jobs. That was the weakest growth since september in 2010. That cemented the feds decision to leave the Interest Rates the same. The june jobs, report will take more importance than normal for Interest Rate guidance. In other data points, the Unemployment Rate will climb to 4. 8 . Back in may it had fallen to 4. 7 , which is a more than eight year low because workers had stopped looking for jobs. Hourly wages climbed from the month before. If true, that 12 month again would be the biggest sense 29 2009. Janet yellen said it looks like were seeing somewhat faster wage growth. She added she hoped it be permanent. Manus bloomberg breaking news coming across the bloomberg from one of the main italian newspapers. The bank aims to sell 10 Million Euros worth of nonperforming loans in a couple of weeks. That will be an interesting achievement if they do that given the slow process of their nonperforming loans. The discussed this with board on thursday. Or a new bank fund according to sole. As a get more confirmation of the detail we bring that to you. You just heard the job super preview from my colleague. Need fromr do we nonfarm payrolls to put one rate hike on the table . Above 200, or about 250,000. Even then, the fed probably save just one month worth of data. This currentn environment putting a rate hike back on the table the sons of many market would welcome. It is been proven that good u. S. News does not necessarily mean good news for the rest of the world. There is no u. S. Demand coming through. Manus i want to take you to this. 30 year Mortgage Rate in the United States of america. It would drop to 3. 41 , then going back. Straight over to that side of the green we november 2012. What caught my eye is this. There were no rate hikes in the United States. Applications to refund your mortgage are up by 20 since the start of july. Upper 20 in a week. That is for a consumer that is ready to rock in the u. S. Geoffrey we said that it didnt happen. Manus you dont want to be that excited . Geoffrey it went up in the u. S. Consumers want to see a bit more. Is ahe german consumer, it bit like the u. S. Consumer. The german consumer, if you can find a german consumer, theyre behaving like that. American households are starting to behave like german households as well. Money, that ishe great. I go back to the oil story, it didnt happen with that. Manus i think you probably find it begins with a rather Large Capital c. It is called confidence. We have more to get through. After the break, we will talk about the warsaw World Leaders visit. . C sv manus it is 6 30 human london facility just gone 1 30 in new york and 7 30 in paris. Lets get the bloomberg first word news. The dallasanus, Police Department has at least two snipers have shot 11 officers during a protest, killing 4 of them. Protestraders gather to the fate of Police Shootings of black men in louisiana and minnesota. President obama says go shooting should trouble americans. President obama it seemed tragedys this too many times. They are symptomatic of a broad Racial Disparities that exist in our criminal justice system. Rosalind the u. K. Is said to have the second female Prime Minister. The races down to just two runners. Italy theresa may or angela leadsom. A leading Brexit Campaigner came last the second round of voting by tory mps and was eliminated from the race. Taiwan has closed Financial Markets. A typhoon sweeps across the island. At least one person has been killed. The first typhoon of 2016 has sustained wind of 200 kilometers an hour. They canceled all flights on friday morning and highspeed rail service is suspended until late afternoon. The philippines has suspended classes in 14 cities. Reported a big jump in car sales. 7eliveries rose 19 to 1. Million units. The growth was driven by suvs and electric cars. The decision to live eu had an Immediate Impact on the u. K. Sales at midmarket retailers fell 3. 6 . Results the worst june in more than a decade. Led zeppelin is seeking reimbursement for money it spent fighting allegations it stole the opening riff to stairway to heaven. They say theyre entitled to have their legal fees paid because of the improper allegations by the lawyer who brought the Copyright Infringement case. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2400 journalists. You can find more stories at top. News formeone breaking you coming in on the dallas tragedy. U. S. Aviation authorities are restricting flight over dallas. This is after a dallas, of course, there was a black lives matter protest in dallas yesterday evening. Officers were shot from elevated positions at 8 45 p. M. That was local time. There was a statement from the group saying with heavy heart their devastated to report a fourth officer has been killed. A person of interest has turned themselves in. The suspect was in custody. The dallasording to police on twitter. This is a statement from afp on twitter breaking as we speak. The restricted flight over dallas after the deadly shooting. He will bring more to you as we gather it throughout the day on bloomberg. Lets change gears and we our focus back to markets. Asian stocks have dropped after we can. Ysian ringgit oil traded below 46 a barrel following the u. S. Supply data. For more on the market moves lets get to nejra. Nejra we seeing asian stocks drop. For a weeklying loss. We are seeing risk aversion in these equity markets. Crude oil plunged for an 8 us data shows u. S. Stockpiles decreased less than analysts had forecasted. We see it rebound now both wti and brent staying below 46 a barrel. Merchant Commodity Fund has changed its outlook on commodities from bullish to neutral. It says the best is probably over for commodities this year as the brexit voted adding risk. Could make a to 45 a barrel within three weeks of the stockpiles fall more slowly than expected. Was trade, dollar yen, unchanged earlier in the session. It is now accelerating a rally. Part of this being driven by those tragic events in dallas which are spurring demand for safe haven assets. We have seen u. S. And japanese bonds rising today on the back of that. Japans 10 year yield has dropped to a record low. I want to show you a longer term trend. This is the treasury price not the yield. They have been climbing for a seventh week. That is the longest winning streak for treasuries since 2012. Pimco has said the federal keep rates on hold no matter what. Manus nejra, thank you very much. This isning into the chief of the Dallas Police inartment making a statement relation to the incident in dallas late yesterday evening. Were listening and. So that we dont injure or put any of our officers in harms way. Includes the citizens of dallas as we negotiate further. A completent have Comfort Level that we have all the suspects. We will continue a very, very, rigorous investigation and search of downtown. We will likely be working throughout the Early Morning hours of friday, until we are satisfied that all suspects have been captured and have an opportunity to be interviewed so that we can fully understand what motivated this attack on our officers. Our mentioned, one of officers who is in surgery that we had hopes would survive pas sed. Bringing the total count of officers passed to four. Three Dallas Police officers and one dart officer. We are continuing to ask for the publics prayers and support and encouragement. I can tell you, i had never been ,ore proud of a Police Officer and being a part of this great and noble profession. The courage, the professionalism , and the grit to stay on the looking forarea suspects knowing we are vulnerable. We dont know where they are. Our downtown is very large with high buildings. Some of those stories i heard from officers talking about what happened running toward gunfire to help the injured. Officers got transported to the hospital. They were transported by patrol car, not having the time to wait for an ambulance. There are so many stories of great courage. So we continue to fight the good fight to bring this to a conclusion. It is a tenuous situation. The mayor is done through take additional questions. Thank you. Toconcerning what is going happen tomorrow morning, this is still an active crime scene. Howre determining right now big that crime scene is. There are many people that work in the downtown area. Away fromm to stay that crime scene. How you know where it is . We posted on dallas city news. Net. You can check with your buildings that you work in and make sure that thos buildings are open. We have got to support our police force to make sure we get to the bottom and root cause of all of this. Please, make it easy for the police force and other citizens to check your traffic routes in the morning. That it is a heartbreaking morning. Four officers that proudly served our citizens to lose these four officers that proudly served our citizens. To say that but the life in the line everyday is no hyperbole. It is a reality. Must a city and a country come together, lock arms, and heal the wounds that we all feel from time to time. Words matter, Leadership Matters at this time. I am proud of our chief. Without we will take questions. That was the sheriff and the mayor of dallas. The sheriff saying a rigorous investigation is underway. He is confirming that four Police Officers have now died, three from the Dallas Police force. They are asking for prayers and encouragement. Fighting against this situation, mayor making his statement. Excuse me, that was the sheriff david brown followed by the mayor mike rawlings. If you are tuning in and are a resident in dallas it is an active crime scene downtown. The mayor saying please stay away from downtown. If you want to know what is happening go to dallascitynews. Net. That is where youll find out what is happening in terms of the work area. Healing as aut city. It must come together and lock arms and that words matter. As we get more on the tragic incidents, these are pictures aom dallas where we saw series of shootings late yesterday evening. Four Police Officers are dead. Get more than will bring that to you. Lets shift back to global issues. Nato leaders begin a twoday summit in warsaw today. Talks will focus on boosting the present in Eastern Europe and the fallout from british decision to leave the eu is also on that agenda. One secretarygeneral had to say about this. Will of course change the uks relationship with the European Union. Change uks position within nato. U. K. Will continue as a strong and committed nato ally. The government of the u. K. Has clearly stated that. Lets get more from our International Government reporter. The u. S. Ambassador to nato has called this summit the biggest Inflection Point for the Alliance Since the fall of the berlin wall. That gives you a sense of really what is at stake here. Yes. They already knew this was going to be big summit before the vote. You had several pieces coming together in terms of threats that nato must deal with. There was a lot of tension between the alliance. For the Eastern European members, the issue of russia is the biggest threat. For the southern nato members, spain, italy, france, theyre more concerned about the threat from isis and refugees. You had already quite a delicate and important to summit. They had to try to marry these things. The same time theyre trying to expand more officially to deal with cyber threats. On top of that you now have brexit. That has raised all kinds of questions. Been said in literal terms and immediate terms that this doesnt mean much for nato. The u. K. Is one of natos Largest Military contributors. It just voted to leave the eu. It has an incentive to play an Even Stronger role in the military alliance to which it will still remain a member. It was a love of the military strength. Cloutwill have a lot of because of the military strength. Loosening ornify a a loss of interest in strong allies . It raises questions about what has been said in the u. S. On the campaign trail by donald trump about nato. Saying this is an alliance it no longer is so important for us. These are the large questions that are at issue. Manus they certainly are. Mark, thank you very much. Is still with me. Just listening to the global ramifications of brexit, they are not contained to markets. Their politics, it is the alpha of markets. In terms of brexit and nato, and the possibility of u. S. Elections, and china, come in what concerns you the most. Thefrey right now, it is u. S. Electoral cycle. Risk in thenext immediate future was to next year, people pick up on the factory of several key european votes coming through. All of this is leading to a general sense of looking for the next unrest. How do i stay defensive . That is driving some attention away from the fundamentals. My personal fears that if you go out looking for bad news and reasons to worry you will find that. You will continue to find them. That becomes distorted overtime. How do markets price in a political discount . This is something new. Recs it is a warning you can no longer expect the Mainstream Center to actually hold as it did in the past. Manus i will last this question to, are you buying protection . Are your clients asking for protection for a political event in the United States . On was done our stories down there when she went bearish, she is turned bullish. Up to 1400. Urned article people buying protection on the u. S. Political event . Geoffrey the best protection is by diversification. You cannot find one asset class that will protect against everything. Gold, for example, has a goal been rallying . December, when i t started to rally, cameron hadnt come back with a deal yet. We didnt even know the timing. But, we knew the world was in an uncertain place. Was starting to turn favorable towards gold. Is negative carry. He much everything is a negative carry right now. A reason notnger to hold gold. Have you seen how much physical protection . Ongterm we are not detecting that yet. Im hesitant to say that. This is a longterm trend. Clearly, people are looking for that protection. Manus we were more central bank to get through. Joining me from ubs management. Celebrating 90 years in business last by with a special runway show. To bloomberg about demand from the u. S. And china. The u. S. Definitely has some cautiousness links to elections in terms of economies. With his ups and downs to the effect that people saw what was going on. I think we should not be too worried about that. The u. S. Is solid. Eventually, we come back really strong. The number of chinese, yes, the situation is getting better. Very well at temporary situation. Maybe it will be a durable one. We do not know. Focus and consideration is that for today. Manus the ceo also said there could be a possible adjustment in his price strategy after brexit. We see that prices if there is the pound keeps losing 5 per week and maybe we want to think about it. We dont want to sell cheaper than italy, that is for sure. Manus so, that is the ceo of fendi dealing with the fallout from brexit. What does it really mean . Let me show you this. It is the dallas shootings, that is what were focused on right now. It is a major politically growing event. A tragic event in dallas. Many lives are under pressure right here. If black lives matter protests last night in dallas. Officers were shot from elevated positions. A person of interest has turned themselves in. We have heard from the Police Department. With heavy hearts, their devastated to report that another officer has been killed. The sheriff was not satisfied potential subjects have been captured. We have also just read from afp that airspace over dallas has now been closed. Three Dallas Police Department Members have lost their lives including one additional dart member. Time proud of the never more proud to be the time to be an officer at this time the sheriff said. The mayor also speaking about the active scenes is to go to t where theews. Ne Mayors Office is posting the latest in terms of what you might need to know. If you are living in dallas, obviously, whether you should go downtown and where you should go. Go to dallascitynews. Net. A city and country must come together. They must lock arms at this time words matter. Those are the words of the mayor of dallas. Is 6 51 in london. Lets get your business flash with rosalind. Tata has halted the sale of its u. K. Assets pulled outbidders due to uncertainty in the brexit a vote. Is still keen to sell the business. There reportedly seeking to deal with the bad loans. Quotingg to a newspaper Financial Services they aim to give a strong signal to the market and exploit the guarantee for a recapitalization. This is after reports of a party hosted in the hamptons. The personal judgment was inconsistent with the firms and email requests for comments. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Japanese voters head to the polls. That is a gauge for backing the , and a sharpcies joined us now from with what is at stake. Ive still got it, i can go forward. People saying it has failed for the white is this election matter . Ok, then. Physically, basically, the key thing to look out for is the theition parties can get upper house. A two thirds majority will allow them to push ahead with the longheld desire to get this process underway to start changing the countrys pacifist constitution. Increasing going to two thirds majority it is possible, the problem with this is that it may be able to go along with this constitutional push. They will be taken up by this. He may take his eye off the economic toll, that is one thing would be to look out for. The worstcase is if he and his coalition failed to get the amount of seats. His mandate toen go on. Is thet likely scenario majority but if he doesnt get two thirds. We would really see then this could push back any thoughts of a constitutional push. Go toift that would whether the boj will boost its easing plans further. Big stimulusa package as japans currently is struggling a bit. Manus those policy maneuvers actually come to this election going on. Andy sharp there with the very latest was a thank you very much. We are hearing the economics . See ity i would like to more as an extension of the multidecade plan. If you look at it in those terms of hasnt really worked so far. And a certain questions being asked that this is the right way. Manus is it the right way . In my search for something new btv, this is the current decline in japan. Is themonth average highest since 2010. The current decline service goes, typically, typically we have a lag of where the yen goes. This is the nominal effect in white. Yen is itching to get back through 100. Were still 20 above the last intervention level. Ffrey some dealers are itching to get back into the markets as well. I think the approach is more if we see a significant fall, a volatile move. And they will act. That is the consensus. You dont act around a certain level but around volatility. Demand is ton that very very weak in japan. Commodity prices is challenging. Having said that, we do think, given the inflation targets they will attract what will be short dollar yen right now. Will it be perpetual intervention . That is not a strategy . Manus who could issue a 100 year bond . Be they japan will first one to try. What company b positive at this rate, probably not much. Manus i probably wont be around to see the return. Never, i can live a long and healthy life. That is geoffrey. It is john today in the usa . C sv clicks 11 Police Officers and snipers gunned down 11 Police Officers in dallas. The rally accelrys on the news. Storm clouds on the markets. Asian stocks drop as a typhoon sweeps across the island. Was two inventory race. U. K. Is said to have its second female Prime Minister with angela some and theresa may on the ballot. The eu votes a Board Meeting is set for later today. Manus you are welcome to count down this friday morning. Some breaking data from germany. In terms of the trade balance which comes in at 21 billion euros. The market was expecting a trade. Alance of 23. 5 billion euros the previous number has been revised. You are seeing this trade balance down. The current account balance comes in at 17. 5, now or then expected. Exports plummet. This is why you should be interested in concerned about what is happening in germany. Exports plummet by 1. 8 . Lower. Also considerably the important number comes in at 0. 1 . The market was looking at plus. 1 . These are disappointing numbers for germany. Let me check in with what is marketn with the futures. You have an indication for lower equities across europe. Ondon down by. 5 youre seeing equities features down. Equities futures down. What is on my risk radar this morning . 4 . Pacific is a down this week has been fairly tough, the dollar yen itching to get to 100. Its firstaded for backtoback drop since the u. K. Brexit vote. Otherg story, abn and investors calling for a higher level of gold. We lost 7 on crude. The biggest weekly drop on crude and almost five months. Lets look at the bond market, record lows for you, traded during the Asian Pacific session. 1. 36 on 10 year Government Bonds. It is u. S. Jobs day. We will focus on that. 10 year Government Bonds at negative. 28 . Record after record in terms of these bond markets. Our other main story we are watching on bloomberg is the developing story in dallas. Let me tell you this, these are pictures in dallas so far. What we understand is last evening there was a black lives matters protest and at that event, there were a number of shots fired from elevated positions. Around 8 45 p. M. Four officers have died in this attack. This obviously a great tragedy for dallas. This protest march was taking place after two black men shot this week in louisiana and minnesota. We have heard from the sheriff, david brown, in dallas. Not satisfied that all subjects have been captured. We heard from the mayor. If youre waking up and wondering what is going on in terms of your city, where you go , go to dallas city news. Net. This is a city which must come together, must lock arms. As we get more on this tragic incident, we will bring it to you. Lets get to bloomberg first word with rosalind chin. Taiwan has closed Financial Markets as a typhoon sweeps across the island. The first typhoon has sustained winds of 200 Kilometers Per Hour gusting to 250. Taiwans airlines have canceled flights. The philippines have suspended. Raffic in 14 cities china has reported a big jump in car sales in june. It rose to 1. 7 million units. Britains decision to lead the eu has an Immediate Impact on the u. K. High street, that is it sayso the firm like for like sales fell 3. 6 last month. The west june results fell more than a decade. More than in a decade. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. You can find more stories on the bloomberg at top. Manus lets get breaking news coming in across the bloomberg. Cfo sorry, Pierre Francois leaves the group. This is the cfo. See he has been on the job for two and a half years. He was appointed to the position back on the 31st of december at 2013. In terms of the performance of the stock under his time on the board, let me tell you, the stock is down by 10. 91 . That is beating this years, so the new ceo desk the cfo is out the cfo is out. Better than the rest of the market. Lets get over to haidi lun. Aidi this is what we have seen. A couple of markets are closed, korea and tokyo. We have a standing thats we have extended losses when it comes to the msci asiapacific including japan. It is clear what the leaders are. Utilities ared building on the back of this concernsn crude prices that over supplies will be overwhelming the market. At the close, the nikkei down over 1 . Really building on the losses we have seen. Also weakness coming through in some of the Greater China markets. Hong kong, hang seng index down by. 9 . Selling going on in shanghai as well. Also quite a bit of weakness when it comes to southeast asia. A bit of a bright spot, it is flat sydney stocks looking better as we get similar political stability or certainty returning. A week after the weekend election, but it is starting to paint a picture that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbulls coalition will be resuming to government. We do have a few that we have been watching peter we have seen a couple of these gold miners rampup. Thats watching. We have seen a couple of these gold miners watching. We have seen a couple of these gold miners ramp up. Thene of the rare gamers in tokyo sector, nintendo jumping 11 . Take for the pokemon game. It is the top get downloaded ame in the u. S. Manus, maybe that is something you can do on weekends. Manus spend, spend, spend. Haidi lun, thank you very much. Bending is asked this seven funds have been suspended across the United Kingdom in the wake of britains decision to leave the eu. Ryan, good to see you. Aberdeen giving investors more time to reconsider their orders. It is a very institutional style response to retail issue to a retail issue. Could whatly aberdeen is doing is saying if you can do that on monday. What has changed is they are going to propose a 17 exit penalty on the investors who were in the fund. That is why they are saying they are giving them more time to think it over. They are going to keep the fund is suspended until monday. As you know, and you were just pointing out, aberdeen is not the only asset manager out there to freeze redemptions. Nor is it the only asset manager to mark down the value of the fund and say to its investors, if you do pullout, you are going to have less money than you had just a few days ago when we suspended the fund. What is the issue . Ultimately, lets not forget you have these openended funds, Retail Investors can buy into them. What do they own . They own these buildings. Collectively the Fund Managers that are frozen their trading operation own about half of all of the commercial property in the United Kingdom. They own 1000 buildings to do the own some of the buildings behind me. They own somebody buildings it is an illegal margaret and a liquid market. Youey are saying is are going to have to wait a little while. There are buyers out there. This is what all of the funds are saying, but we need time to get to them and have many of those investors want to buy in . Maybe they want to hold off even though there is a little more belly up there on the back of the drop in the pound for Foreign Investors alone. It is a messy situation. No one knows what anything is worth. Effectively aberdeen is joining the group of Fund Managers saying we need to put things on ice. In fact, half of the Property Market on ice here in the u. K. Manus ryan, we have a clear leadership battle. Jobd cap David Camerons. It looks like it is going to be a lady. Ryan that is right. The First Time Since Margaret Thatcher resigned in the 1990s did this is extraordinary stuff. That 1990s. This is externally stuff. Leadership contest for the conservative party, theresa may are andrea led some. What it means for the market and what it means for the uks negotiations with European Union going forward. As you note theresa may was a supporter of remain. Perhaps a reluctant supporter but nevertheless on the remain in the European Union side. May had a huge majority on the colleagues in the parliament. Her competitor may get more support at the end of the day. Though that is not what the police are saying when the 100 50,000 members of the conservative party vote on this because 62 of them are thought to have voted for brexit. It doesnt look like that leadership contest is really going to lead to a whole lot more clarity in the markets. Clarity, that is something a lot of investors would ask for. Ryan chilcote, a great job for us. He g me is and still and steely. We were just listening to ryan. Eyeopening might bloomberg first word. Word, a talking real estate commercial exposure almost one third of the lenders combined market value. What does that mean you go mean . According to the 2015 report, rbs, barclays and we are expecting a 20 drop in commercial property prices at how concerned are you about this . What does this do to the dividend story . The whole banking story . What we saw in the 2014 and 2015 stress test is a were looking at a drop of 30 . In those situations the bank held up ok. It does feel like the banks have been all caps over the last three years. Berall, you got to comfortable with u. K. Banking system. What does it mean for the stock prices . We do believe there the capital to pay us back. Manus we are trying to assess risk. He said is not contagion. Viewerst i got for our the cds is for the u. K. This is rbs and barclays. You say youre comfortable with u. K. In terms of the banking system. But we are seeing this move trading and barclays trading in barclays for cbss. No doubt about it, the markets are concerned. We do not know where the end of brexit will go. Has it changed your allocation in the United Kingdom . Iain you want to be thinking about yields. Guild yields are at low levels. We saw very Strong Demand yesterday. Manus i was just looking at that. Record low 10 year. Can we go lower . 10 year paper, twoyear paper. Will it collapse echo when we get collapse . When will we get to negative . Iain they are going to cut Interest Rates. It is going to continue to pressure pushing down Government Bond yields. Go for a rated cut next week, 25 basis points, followed by an august . Iain i think we will start with 25 next week and see how things play out. He doesnt want to go to negative rates, so you are probably looking at zero or 10 basis points. Definitely lower than we are today. Blips 25 billups 25 off next week. That is the whole problem, isnt it is that our mortgages it is not about the consumer, it is about industry. Is that where he is targeting . Iain the u. K. Is an institutionbased economy. It gives confidence in the markets. Yet the banks who are cutting you have the banks who are cutting. Manus their probability is dropping to the floor. Why would you want to own a u. K. Bank . Iain from a bondholder perspective, u. K. Banks have the capital. Manus this the pound, eight year cycle. The pound drops every eight years and it looks according to our chart as if the pound could be in for more of a spanking. From your to from your perspective, is this the next to drop from sterling from where we are . Iain the move from sterling has been pretty extreme. It is undervalued. It can go lower from where we youll have to see a negative impact in the u. K. Manus hold that thought. We are going to talk of the jobs report next. Iain stealey stays with us. Jobs they in the u. S. That is what we are going to talk about jobs day in the usa. That is what we are going to talk about. This is bloomberg. Manus a shot of a great london city. Welcome back, it is countdown. Moody says the brexit may be a shock to confidence. It may curve it may curb economic growth. The u. K. Has an uncertain future outside of the eu. It may dampen investment. Hing terribly pathetic terribly prophetic in those words from moodys, but it adds to the tale of woe that many people are bringing in terms of the reality of life outside of the eu. It is jobs day in the usa. We had the weakest job growth and more than five years, that was last month. Investors are waiting to see whether it is a trend or an anomaly. The real question is how important the number is. That is data dependent. Ian, thank you for staying with me. I asked jeffrey what we need in terms of a number to keep rate. Ikes alive he suggested something in excess of 2000 good what is it take for jpmorgan Asset Management . Iain i am not sure theres any number. Outside a complete ethics 300 plus number. The fed is going to have to look at what the economy is doing and what the fallout from brexit is going to be before he can make a decision. What will be interesting is if you get that number, what will you bring to expectations next year . 2018, the extreme levels, maybe well get that back. Gilbert wrote a great piece and he said no more negative rates. No more rate cuts. Raise rates. America ation and in america, this us and burn. Raise rates. A bit radical . Iain you got very low growth, inflation and what it would do for Consumer Confidence if you raise rates and have culture them on the borrowing, that is debatable. Manus did rates on hold. Manus rates on hold. Is it stagnation . Iain stagnation. We have low growth. Manus this is the u. S. Bond market, lucky seven. If you canll seven, it is the lucky the bond market in the United States of america. And goes back you to your base case, there is more mallets left more mileage left. How much more compression can we get . Iain in the longtime treasury yields addicting 1 . If you look the rest of the world we have germany, japan and negative space. , the u. S. K. Trading is a safe haven. It is where Everyone Wants to buy. All demand we are seeing in the u. S. Manus when do you think we can hit the sub 1 level . Iain the beginning of next year. Manus the other discussion this week excuse me, has been around japan. Their election this week. Aroundcussion has been 20 or 30 year yields careening downwards. Is there no end to this mood across the curves . Iain this is the world we live in. No growth, how do we stimulate . Manus talking about 100 billion pounds worth of every structure spending in the United Kingdom. What would that do to the bond market . Iain a really big fiscal spend could start to have that sort of inflation come through which would make it more negative to the bond market. Where a long way away from that at the moment. Anything about japan, they are going to do some sort of combined wanted to easing and fiscal easing. Thank you for joining us on countdown. Futures are indicated lower across the board in the equity market. The story that we will be tracking for you right here on bloomberg. Dallas under siege at the moment. Aerospace has been closed the aerospace has been closed over the dallas region. Speaking and been the sheriff talks about his concerns. This is bloomberg. On the move. Guy welcome toon the move. Welcome to on the move. Caroline hyde is over in berlin. This is what were watching. At least two snipers shot 11 Police Officers, killing for in a protest in dallas. The devastation was being held during the Fatal Police Shooting of was being held over the Fatal Shooting of two black men. Not so data dependent. It is jobs day in the