Mark hello. I am mark barton. Manus also bringing up, we have a closeup of what a 40 million watch looks like. Plus interviews with the ceos behind the brands. Mark treasuries rally as janet yellen proves she is predictable on patients. The exit from easing may be more gradual than markets anticipated. Yellen because we removed of word patient does not mean we will be impatient. Anna the dollar saw its biggest drop in six years as she stressed to there would not be a tightening until inflation returned to targets. These things might take longer than markets anticipated. She warned of the impact of the strong dollar. Yellen inflation has dropped below the longerterm objective. Declining import prices have also restrained inflation. In light of the appreciation of the dollar will likely continue to do so. Anna other currency swings on the backs of the news. Lets get over to manus at the touchscreen. Manus if you want to rep it up, my that woman packs a punch manus my that woman packs a punch. Volatility dropped 10 . We have not seen a move like that since the end of december. That carries through this morning. The nasdaq traded through the 5000 level. Nasdaq futures over 1 . Bank of america, yesterday going into the survey, Fund Managers the most underweight stocks. Equity futures are higher all around the globe. You are seeing big moves as well in the oil market and commodity markets. Lets talk about gold for the moment. I will show you a longerterm chart. On the markets, treasuries bonds. A surge in terms of volatility. Lets talk about the bond market. Two year Government Bond yields. The biggest oneday rally in six years. The biggest oneday drop and yielded almost six years. The biggest move since the fed announced they would do qe of 309. The fed has slashed 300 million. The fed has slashed their view of where it would be by 50 . They are saying rates will be 0. 625 . A big move in the twoyear bond yields. The dollar giving volatility a whole new meaning. The dollar index. The biggest move cents march 2009. It was hitting 10 year highs against the euro. The Dollar Strength was mentioned by yellen. I love what Deutsche Bank said. That is an indirect protest of the Dollar Strength. Dollar down by 1 . We are just coming off the lows. Lovely line, this up trend will indeed be be. Oil markets, look at this. A ramp up, 3 in the oil market. Six days of losses. It and then reality kick in. There is a little bit more oil in terms of supply. The reality of what is going in the commodity kick in. Down 2. 35 . You are seeing the oil market and gold markets move. Lets check in on gold. They are tempering their view on inflation. The one thing that affects the gold market is the perception of inflation. Rally yesterday. We are just kicking that higher on gold. Over 4 billion wiped off the gold market in march alone. The biggest oneday move since january of this year. The view that inflation is tempered, the Economic Growth has moderated, sending money back into the gold market. New thought it was all so sweet. Life was going to be one big profit. The markets have been rattled. They have been fundamentally shaken. The market was so long dollar and so short euro, that this big move, the biggest oneday rally since 2000. You are looking at a tremendous move in the euro. Shock, author, awe, cover your position. A manner a more measured petition. Janet yellen has opened pandoras box, it is not if but when raises in rates will occur. It gives her a mandate to decide on the data. Do not be concerned about the pace with which we are going to attack the rate hikes. That is the critical issue. We have a couple of Fund Managers in for the question. Caroline lets kick it out to asia. The impact of the fed meeting felt across there as well. Stocks climbing to a sixmonth high. Lets head out to you von i reporter in hong kong. Reporter looks like the party will go on for a third day. Cuts ring down the rate projections overall. Not patient does not mean impatient. We have seen asia markets in the green right now with the exception of china and japan. The asiapacific index up 1 . Lets talk about japan. They did not have a good morning today. The yen surged to because of the falloff in the dollar. Back up to 120 now. Japan stocks also close to reimbursing the losses. Yields are coming down. Manus talked about twoyear treasury yields. The 10 year also fell. Dropped the most in six years. Pulled everything down. Take a look at 10 year debt from australia to japan. Down 10 basis points, close to record lows. Anchor bonds being hit. Stocks rising. Talk to us about the fx market. Reporter we are starting to see it impact the luxury industry. Quite a craze, especially here in hong kong. People are seeing lines outside after the luxury brand decided to cut prices by 20 in china. That includes classic bags, like a chanel bag. That has sent people to forming lines outside. People were told to leave because a lot of these bags were sold out. The fall in the euro whiting the gap between prices of items in europe versus china. We also might see, this is going to add pressure for other Luxury Brands to do the same. They want to turner asian shoppers from heading to europe to shop more at home. Deter asian shoppers from heading to europe and do more shopping at home. We will see if there is any other luxury brand that will follow suit. Caroline, in the u k shuttle chen lanel prices are going to be caroline lets take a quick look. A cement giant battling to save their merge mark. Mark looking to Caroline Hyde has more of the rates to salvage the deal. It seems more positive . Carolynine they are trying to salvage it. The key issue for the deal, which is crucial, the biggest deal we might have seen since 2012. Since we saw they are teaming up together. The financials of the deal and also the leadership to do the deal. They are basically trying to make it less week for the french company. Lafarge. They were going to get 40 of the company. Saying that might be too good to be true. They are saying, we dont want a 1 for one share swap. Wholesome saying, we are more valuable. Holcim saying, we are more valuable. Mark 10 discount. Carolyn they also want a better deal in terms of the executive. Saying you should not take the helm. You join and we will take a chief executive from the lafarge team. This comes down to personality. Renault is quite a character the is chewing gum. He is not the same sort of leader as the holcim ceo career they have had issues throughout the discussion. Leadership is in question and so our finances. Manus what does this mean . This was supposed to be the transformational deal. They have a big meeting today to ratify what they were going to buy. Caroline this is not just about the cement players. This is going to be the biggest deal they would have ever done. 6 billion euros worth of assets. Due to get regulatory approval. They had to sell off assets in brasil canada. Today, they meet. Lafarge and holcim are trying to push this through in the next few hours. It would be a transformative deal. The ceo said if a key part of the growth it would boost sales 28 . They are desperate to get their hands on these assets. Overall, big for them to get this through. Also big for asset managers. Who are exposed to this. Blackrock. All own shares. A lot on the table. Manus thank you very much for running that up for us. Lets look at some of the top stories. A gun man killed at least 22 people into niger after storming a museum. In tunisia after storming amy sam. Citizens of poland, germany, and italy. At least 17 tourists killed. Three japanese nationals were killed in the attack. Eu leaders meet in brussels with sanctions against russia and Financial Support for greece in the Energy Markets leading the agenda. The great Prime Minister is pinning his hopes for a breakthrough on the funding crunch on a meeting he has requested on the sidelines of the summit. As well as the ecbs mario draghi. Money being frozen related to the petrobras scandal. Nine investigations have opened and are based on allegations of corruption involving eight resilient citizens. Eight brazilian citizens. In his last budget ahead of the election, the u. K. Chancellor spoke of an end to austerity. He announced help for first time homebuyers, and tax cuts for beer, cider, and scotch whiskey. Mark join the conversation on twitter. Tell us what you are following to hear more about. This is where you will find us. Coming up, we are going to discuss risk and reward in the postfed environment. Let me emphasize again that todays modifications for Forward Guidance should not the red as indicating the Community Committee has decided on the timing of the increase. In particular, the change does not mean an increase will necessarily occur in june. Although we cannot rule that out. Mark that was fed chair janet yellen. She says the committee will no longer be patient about returning to a more normal monetary policy. While at the same time, fed officials reduced their forecast for the benchmark rate. Lets bring in a chief Investment Officer at ubs wealth management. And a chief Investment Officer at another firm. Good morning. Both of you answer this question. In light of what the fed said last night, have you pushed back your expectations for the first fed rate hike . No. I think we felt there would be a fed rate hike this year. I dont think he thought there would be an aggressive height. I think she wanted to get a rise through to test the plumbing, but i dont think the conditions warrant anything to aggressive. Mark for which month . Which month sometime in the Third Quarter. We had a june 1 hike. That is off the table now. We had four by the end of the year. Clearly off the table. If you had to give me a month, it would be september. Caroline what do you think how did this . Do you think this is the fed and losing patience with Dollar Strength . A bit of a currency war . The fed has never engaged explicitly to weaken the dollar. Qe had that effect but it was indirect and tertiary. This is spelling out the situation we are in. The job market data has been strong. Other data has been week. It is prudent to take their time. The market got ahead of itself. Incredible strength in the dollar, position unwinding. Manus better guidance. What she has done the fed has done, they have shaken us out of their expert patients. Expectations. They want the ability to look at the diedata and go when they won. Want. The dollar has been strong and that has moderated profits. Will prices are deflationary despite the strength of the jobs market. Inflation pressures nonexistent. Mark do you think inflation will pick up . Are you of the camp that we can look through the movement in the oil price and still have confidence inflation will move toward the goal . It is so far from the feds preferred goal and has been for the best part of three years . When inflation was going up every bank said to focus on it. Now oil prices are going down and it is an excuse to maintain easy monetary policy. I find that perplexing. In the case at the u. S. , inflation is below target. The expectation is the economy will continue to grow and you will get close to the target. Even in europe, the forecast, by september 16, they have 1. 8 . You will start to see some modest inflation coming through. The jobs data to date, we have not seen inflation in the u. S. Taken in isolation, the job data is incredible. We have not seen that since 1994. That would suggest he will have to see greater Bargaining Power for labor. Caroline you said eu have not changed your view on when we will see rate changes. The u. S. In general as an asset class, doesnt make it more attractive as equities . U. S. Equities have performed well. Corporate Profit Margins are at alltime highs. Valuations we have become less positive about equities. The dollar is taking the shine off of corporate profitability. We are less favored towards the u. S. Equities. We need to think about u. S. Fixed income. If you think about where eurozone fixed income markets are, 2 on the 10 year does not look that unattractive. Despite the setback, the trends are for a more positive dollar Going Forward. Maybe u. S. Fixed income markets are becoming more attractive. Manus you came in, quite bullish on u. S. Equities. How do you reality way that . Reevaluate that . In your notes you like to veer off into the illiquid market. Why would i want to go for less liquid stock in an uncertain time . We continue to be constructive on u. S. Assets. We have been changing our relative preference for assets. That relative preference within the developed markets has shifted. With respect to alternative assets, it is one of the few places where private owners have an advantage. Typically these appeal to clients i talked to. Adding a diversified basket of alternative managers, hedge Fund Managers, has attracted portfolio indications. Clients tend to be underinvested in that area. Mark when the stoxx 600 has risen by 16 , what is the reasoning in that . The euro has fallen significantly. That is a big boost to the global exporters. Many listed in europe area did qe is a significant boost to the economy. Many listed in europe. Qe is a significant boost to the economy. Valuations were at the lower end with lower Profit Margins. I can understand why they european equities have done as well as they have done. Despite the strength we have seen, i think they can make further progress. Mark thank you. Thank you for joining us. From ubs wealth management. Caroline still to come on countdown, an exclusive interview with the chief executive mark we are watching thise Swiss National banks first decision. Just because im away from my desk doesnt mean im not working. Comcast business understands that. Their wifi isnt just fast near the router. Its fast in the break room. Fast in the conference room. Fast in toms office. Fast in other toms office. Fast in the foyer [pronounced foyyer] or is it foyer [pronounced foyyay] . Fast in the hallway. I feel like ive been here before. Switch now and get the fastest wifi everywhere. Comcast business. Built for business. Manus you are watching countdown. Time to check in on the Foreign Exchange markets. This is what happened to the dollar. It dropped by over 1 yesterday. The most down in six years. The market was so fundamentally long for the dollar. Ubs were originally saying they expected full rate hikes four rate hikes in 2015. They are telling us it is possibly one hike. Unemployment is dropping. There is the big phrase you are going to hear a lot of, the u. S. Has full employment. They are going to have to go for rate hikes. What a tremendously huge move. The fed has splashed their move of where rates will be by the end of the year. Hence the reason you are seeing this dramatic move. Rates will be 0. 625 . Originally, they said rates would be 1. 125 . When you hear people talking about the dots, that is what they are talking about. The dollar was down. It is off its knees. Down again for a second consecutive day. What is going on with the dollar, sorry, the euro . The biggest oneday rally in the euro since 2000. That gives you a sense of the magnitude of how short, opposition to the markets were going into this meeting. Make your money, no problem. Everybody is getting ready for purity. The fed have shaken that view. 10780 is where we are. How has this all played out and perhaps some of the other markets . Australia dollar, what a ramp. You were set for one of the biggest weekly rallies in a year. That momentum rating. Seeing it come that momentum fading. Seeing it come back. New zealand the dollar peripheral currencies under so much pressure. The fed went early and went for a hike. Pulling back from that changes where you should be with the aussie dollar and the new Zealand Dollar. 7453 on the new Zealand Dollar dollar. Mark search shares of nintendo surging after the company says they mark plans to using mobile devices. It marks the end of the company resisting using iconic cha racters on smartphones. 22 People Killed in tunisia. Visitors of poland, italy, and germany were among tourists killed. Japans Prime Minister confirmed three japanese nationals were killed. Eu leaders meet with sanctions against russia. Financials port for greece and Energy Markets leading the agenda. The greek Prime Minister requested a meeting on the sidelines of of the summit. With ecu leaders as well as mario draghi. Manus janet yellen has proved she is predictable. But the exit from ezine may be more gradual than anticipated. Peter cook reports from washington. Peter the fed open the door to a Interest Rate increase, but also signaled they will go slow when liftoff occurs. This demand came in the latest policy statement when they dropped their pledge in being patient and said they will move when they have seen further improvement in the labor market and are confident inflation is moving back to the 2 target. Yellen clarified the timing. Yellen we are seeing an economy growing up above trend. The labor market is improving. Some of the headwinds that have been holding the economy back are receding which is reason the committee wants to evaluate incoming data and consider when it may be appropriate to raise rates. Peter she stressed that means a rate is not a lock, only that a rate increases possible. The median forecast for the fed funds rate increase is well below the december forecast. That suggests the fed is in no rush. It depends on the data. Yellen we cannot and should not provide certain teepee ty because developments are uncertain. Peter she also defended the fed against congressional criticism it is not open enough. She also said it is appropriate for her to be quizzed by congress. She acknowledged the Inspector General is investigating a leak dating back to 2012. Peter cook, bloomberg, washington. For a line switch gears and talk luxury. Caroline lets switch gears and talk luxury. The Worlds Largest watch show. What to expect. Reporter we are here in basel switzerland. The jewelry industry takes over. Welcome to the event. There has been a watch and jewelry show in basel since 1917. In the 1970s, it took off from a industrial exhibition and became its own fair. The new building new halls have over 1. 5 million square feet of exhibition space. They will play host to 15 brands from 40 countries. For most of them there is a spread so ondemand demand. There will be about 150,000 guest is coming through before the show is over. Every year, it has a different atmosphere. This year, there are two Big Questions on everyones lips. What is how the strength of the swiss franc is going to affect prices. And how watchmakers are going to respond to the evolving smart watch market. Market enjoy the conversation on twitter. Tell us what you think of the show. There we are. Caroline more thing. Bling. Manus i want to add up the prices of the london and hong kong tickers. I am going to teach you what they are in the next commercial break. Scotch whiskey. The latest on the winners and losers from the newly announced tax policy. Caroline time for a look at the top stories. Indonesia tunisia gunmen killed 22 people. In tunisia gunmen killed 22 people. Japans Prime Minister has confirmed three japanese nationals were killed in the attack. Eu leaders meet in brussels. With greece and Energy Markets leading the agenda. The greek Prime Minister is pinning his hopes for a breakthrough on the funding crunch. And switzerland is freezing 400 million in assets over 30 banks related to the widening petrobras scandal. 90 investigations have been opened and are based on allegations of corruption involving eight zillion citizens. Petrobras is mired in a Corruption Scandal. Eight brazilian citizens. Petrobras is mired in a Corruption Scandal. Manus chancellor George Osborne announced his final budget. Banks were budget losers. After being hit by a tax increase that will be cost more than 5 billion pounds. Anita, good morning. Nearly 24 hours on. I was coming in my car. I thought of a welsh minister in the labor government. The old, the young, and the babies. He has appealed to the old, the young, i am not so sure about the babies. The babies do not have votes. It was interesting but it was a voter budget. No huge surprises. We were sitting there, waiting. Lots of little snippets but no big rabbits out of the hat. Some interesting things. We were speculating a couple days ago about what he might do on isis. Everybody was saying, he has done quite a lot. He did find something. He has a new in and out idea. I think it will help a lot of people. There hesitation to lock your money up. Now you are going to be able to put money in and then take it out and put it back in again. That is good. Caroline theres something aimed at first time buyers, the fact that you can save more. Grand scheme of things, 3000 pounds is the maximum bonus he can earn. Is this Just Lip Service . Not that much substance in what he has given savers . I think it is a help. If you are a help, 6000 pounds added. How much is that going to buy you in london . You are going to be able to buy property up to 450,000. It is a mere nibble. Nowhere near deposit level. Caroline, it is not going to help in london. He came up with the idea of 1000 pounds interest taxfree. Nice idea but really difficult i think, in reality. Many people have more than one bank account. How do you measure . Joint Bank Accounts . One presumes the interest is split equally, but the Computer System is going to have to fathom out whose money it is. What happens when you get married and change your name . Do you tell your bank . Interesting to see how that one will really work in practice. Mark he is taking further steps, climbing down on tax evasion. Other steps already in place working . I think it is starting to have an effect. We are seeing a change in behavior. As an institute, a professional body, our members are against artificial avoidance schemes. We are pleased to see this happening. Last years measures promoting accelerated payments, that is starting to have an effect. I think we will see more of a change. I think it is a little bit unfortunate we are seeing more measures being brought in without letting the first batch really prove their worth. Manus entrepreneurship is something we cover often. We bring in and Small Businesses and people who have come up with business ideas. You are going to have to help me here. Tell me, you say here, it is one less complexity. What has he done for Small Businesses in a nutshell . If you are a Small Business you pay two types of national insurance. Class two, which is a small amount. You also pay class four related to profits. Class two has been a pain. Because it is such a small amount, we said, why dont you roll it up with class fou . That is what he said he is going to do. Manus that has helped me tremendously. Anita, from the institute of chartered accountants for england and wales. Mark looking to the favorite stories on digital output. Including one of south africas chicken joints. Is not easy. I cannot understand for some people. They see something of value going down. Maybe you have been losing a few percent. What happened 10 or 20 years from now, the value of watches are so high. You have to see it as a longterm investment. Caroline that was a text felipe the Company Chairman saying his watches will withstand the touch of time. Not to be out shined by another brand we are looking at. They are sitting sitting records at basilel world. Bloomberg got a sneak peek before the reveal. This is the fascination watch which we are watching at basel. Extraordinary. At 150 carats of diamonds, the largest being just under 40 carats. Flawless. One of natures true rare gems. This is probably the most viable watch, bracelet, in the world today. About 40 million u. S. Dollars. A piece like this, every single diamond is jointed. Is absolutely threedimensional. Isnt engineering it is an engineering job. That makes it supremely comfortable and flexible on the wrist. I think this will more than likely end up in asia. They have a tremendous desire for unique things. A cultural affinity for diamonds. They love owning and collecting fabulous journey. Jewelry. This is one of the most important pieces in the world today. There we are. Mark time for a look at our pictures from the world of digital. And then there were none. I want to take that back a little bit. Manchester city lost to barcelona. Liverpool, too. All four out of the Champions League area the second time in three seasons at an english chain and english team has not reached the quarterfinals. Huge implications for competition, revenues, sponsorship. We did dominate the league from 20062009. We occupied three of the four semifinal spots. A premier league club has launched only three times last three seasons. As an english football fan this does have ramifications. Caroline i am looking at spicy chicken. Nandos. We have a new billionaire being shown up for the first time in the International Wealth ranking. None other than the man who helped found nandos which now has 1100 locations across 22 countries. He set up in the 1980s. We are speaking to him later on the pole spear coke. He was born the pulse. He was born and insurance magnet. He started expanding a portuguese Chicken Outlet in south africa. Now one of the most followed restaurants need United Kingdom in the United Kingdom on twitter. They are getting into mobile ordering any like. And the like. Mark some people have cards we you get foods for free as a celebrity. I have one. Im joking. Caroline all those Early Morning pay off because you can get mark only joking. Manus i dont know what is more in attaining. The fact that he thinks he has that card or that he thinks hes a celebrity. Lets look at a real celebrity. Rory mcilroy. He is in a gust up. Augusta. One of american football arrived as poor rory mcilroy. He has not won the masters yet. Trying to show his father stop netting me when i come off the court. Countdown continues in the next hour. We are going to talk greece and russia after the break. Caroline janet yellen opens the door for our rate rise later this year but says she will pick up time tightening policy. The latest from the meeting and the market reaction. Mark equities rallying to a sixmonth high. Life to hong kong for the latest. Manus a lastditch talks to save the 40 billion merger. We bring you the details of the deal on the brink. Caroline eu leaders convene in rustles with greeces cash conch cash crunch on the agenda. Life to athens for reactions. Manus welcome to countdown. Coming up, we bring you basil world it takes off. A 40 million watch plus interviews with the ceo behind the watch. Mark Federal Reserve chairs janet yellen pretty proved she is predictable untrue patients but the exit from easing may be more gradual than markets anticipated. Just because we removed the word patient from the statement, doesnt mean we will be inpatient. Manus the dollar saw its biggest drop in six years as yellen stressed there would be a tightening of policy as the labor market improved. Manus these things might take longer than she anticipates. Janet inflation has the flying decline further than the objective, largely reflecting the Lower Energy Prices i mentioned. Declining import prices have also restrained inflation and in light of the recent depreciation of the dollar will likely continue to do so in the months ahead. Manus this marked other currency springs. I looked at some of these markets through the morning and we will see if they are back to form, the shock and has done it but change directions. Caroline lets get impact at the meeting. They stopped high as bond and metal surge. Lets head out to yvonne in hong kong. Yvonne good morning it looks like the party will go on in terms of the asia market, the Third Straight day of gains and investors seem quite relieved after hearing the fed is signaling they may be gradual when it comes to the rate hikes. That no patients does not mean inpatients. The asiapacific index about 1 . Lets talk about japan real quick, they are the exception for the most part because of the yen, it did surge out of the dollar dropped significantly after that fed announcement. But it is back to about 120 and japan stock slowly reversing the losses they saw. Lets talk about yields, they are coming down because of the 10 year u. S. Treasury bond. Pulling everything lower, at the 10 year debt from australia to japan fell and australia with a yielded down about 10 basis points, close to record lows. We saw gold rise as well as the nickel. Caroline girl interesting caroline we saw a weakening in the euro that jumped up a little bit earlier. What is this having in terms of an effect on asia. Yvonne it has started to effect the lock sure he industry in the asiapacific region. We talk about chanel because the lines are still out there right now because they decided to their back prices from 20 in china and it was like they were giving them out for free. Look at the lines in hong kong because of that week your they really have widened the gap between price items in europe versus china at an alltime high. It is driven a lot of asian shoppers to start planning that trip to paris to buy that cheaper bag. Here they are among the luxury black brands that decided to cut prices internationally because of the rising swiss franc. It has put some pressure on the other Luxury Brands to see if they will follow suit china seeing a cut in prices from chanel in the u. K. Will remain the same. Caroline manus has already been on the website and is checking prices. Yvonne in hong kong, thank you. Mark as someone who is worked with manus for five years you will regret that yvonne. The biggest story is the ongoing exacerbation by the supplies from the u. S. Is the u. S. Running out of space to store oil . Guest that is a good question, we are not there yet but inventory is rising significantly every week and will continue to do. Last week the inventory rose by Something Like 9. 5 Million Barrels. How long that can continue will be the big question. Springtime is when we get a seasonal slowdown and people are not using heating oil and refineries are going offline for maintenance sweep probably have a problem. Caroline girl talk to us about prices, what is the outlook and how long will they stay as low it is the impossible question but this cannot help situation. Guest we saw the market rally yesterday but i think people will come out and sell every rally they can find until something changes that things have significantly and noticeably changed. Inventories are still rising and demand is not great. Until that changes the path of least resistance has to be lower. Manus im reading one of the headlines off of your old stories fill my boots, one Million Barrels of oil. You have a more interesting take on what is going on with iran. Talk us through the supply story and what is really at risk. Yes there are a few different ones there is a settlement with iran that allows them to return to the oil market the last thing they need right now is more oil. So there are a few different issues, a Million Barrels is probably not that much, but the bloomberg first Oil Strategist i talked to him earlier and he thinks it is half a Million Barrels, actual production that could come to the market quickly. But remember they have been locked out of the market for a long time but they still been producing so every storage tank in iran is filled to the brim at the moment. And that market is just waiting to come out. Mark which companies are benefiting from offering storage. Guest this is an interesting story. There is so much oil in the companies that own the tanks are minting it. Caroline parking outside. Guest our story today says the fee to store a barrel of oil is going from . 20 to . 80 per dealer barrel per month. So there is a big company in germany and the netherlands they are up 25 or 30 this year. Mark usa storage fees up . 20 to . 50 a barrel. That is where you deliver the futures contract to there is demand for that because that is considered the pipeline crossroads of america. I love the line of tank farms and you see the image of the oil storage all the way around. Mark tim colton. Manus where are we going . Leaders met in brussels today and greece and russia will talk on the agenda but the more important meeting may be on the sidelines. We are joined by joan hayden in brussels marcus in athens, joan lets kick it off with you. We have the banner agenda and then mr. Tsipras and his private tea party with merkel, draw the and aland, what is the agenda echo the main thing is energy union and we are not sure how much progress will make on that but we are focusing on the talks about the russian sanctions. There is debate about whether the leaders will push for a renewal of the sanctions until the end of the year, there is a block of countries mostly in the east to really want that and another block mostly in the south who are against that so we dont have a consensus on the issue it also it will be interesting to see how they come down today and what they say on the way in and afterward in terms of where they stand because they are focusing on the minsk agreement and the sea fire ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine and at this point that seems to be holding but they want to wait and see exactly what putin has up his sleeve before they make a decision. Manus thank you very much, lets see what he has up his sleeve. Marcus, vivid to me from athens because sippers is hoping to have tsipras is hoping to have mario draghi come along. The clock is ticking for greece. Marcus things are pretty tight. The money is pretty tight that a lot of debt payments to italy to make. And wages and pensions need to be paid at the end of the month that is 1. 5 billion out of the budget at the end of the month and at his at a time when greece has had attempts rebuffed to raise more treasury bills. More loan disbursements from the bailout really having to scrimp and save and Fund Resources where it cam. Liquidity is very tight. Theyve really been taking quite a bad turn. The situation is fraught manus what does tsipras hope to get out of this summit. Is it a change in rhetoric is it actually a financial deal . What is the best outcome he can travel to athens with . Marcus the best news he can travel back with is cash because thats what greece needs but below that the talk out of here from the government is that they want a political agreement, they want a political deal because at the moment theyve been talking at a different level. There was ayearold working Group Meeting and those are finance Ministry Officials and there was a meeting on monday which by all accounts was a pretty short and bad tempered one. One of the things that officials are complaining about is that greece is taking unilateral measures with unclear fiscal impact which they see as a violation of the agreement to extend their loan. More specifically what they are referring to is legislation going through parliament intragreece on tackling greeces social crisis. Greece is saying, we cannot be on a level where they are dictating every level of policy. So this is what tsipras is trying to get at to go over the heads of the technocrats at the summit. Manus thank you very much for rounding up the risks and rewards he is seeking. Mark this cement giant is battling to save their 40 billion merger, it is crucial not only to the two companies but the company crh which is seeking to buy them if the deal goes through. Caroline is here with more on the race. Things are looking more positive yesterday afternoon. Caroline yes and talks that they can reach an agreement today. This is all about financial terms but its also all about leadership. Not only are they looking at the deal and thought we are more valuable, we dont want to do a 141 intraterms of share ratio agreement they want. 9 shares per one of their shares. As you are saying a 10 discount overall. They want better financial terms but dont want them as ceo, this is a man who looms larger than life. He is different from the ceo fontana who is perhaps slightly quieter and more softly spoken. Ever since the deal was struck there has been a crunch on who would take the leadership role they dont want bruno because they say he wont cut the way they want and this whole deal promises 1. 4 billion euros per year in savings. So the compromise they seem to be ironing out is that bruno will become cochairman with the chairman currently. And then they might see another executive becoming ceo. So they seem to be dragging themselves toward a compromise. Manus crh is the other big player and they are in line and set themselves up to buy 6 billion euros worth of assets. Theyre having a Shareholder Meeting today this is like wire artist stuff. Caroline this is why the timeline is so precious because they are think and we get into the assets that they want in brazil canada and the philippines, this would be the biggest ever deal for the irish Building Materials supplier. One ceo was saying this is a key part to our future strategy and it is in jeopardy because they cannot do their deal. They are different desperate to make sure that goes through so they can get their hands on these assets they very sold shares and raise 1. 6 billion euros and they want to be able to get their hands on these assets so it is crucial for them and for us in the m a sector because there a lot of fees going up for banks and this would be the biggest m a deal since 2012. This would be a 40 billion merger and there are shell holders who want to see it happen. They hold shares there as well so a lot on the line, there will be some incredibly busy bankers and lawyers right now. Manus nothing from anyone right now we will wait and see as the day goes on, the top stories an bloomberg at this hour. A tunisian gunman kills at least 22 people after storming a museum in the capital. They first entered the parliament and held a group of 14 visitors hostage. Citizens of poland, italy and germany were among the tourists killed. Japans Prime Minister has confirmed that three japanese nationals work killed in the attack. Switzerland is freezing 400 million worth of assets with probes and Money Laundering regarding the petrobras scandal. The companys attorney general says nine investigations have opened and based on allegations of corruption involving businesses. Petrobras is mired in a Corruption Scandal in which executives granted hundreds of millions of dollars in overpriced contract to participants. In the last budget ahead of the election chancellor osborne promising an and to austerity. The chancellor announced help for firsttime homebuyers. Taxes on beer, cider and scotch whiskey. U. K. Banks were the biggest budget losers. Estimates a tax increase could cause. 3 billion pounds over five years. You can find much more detail on that story on bloomberg. Com. Mark join the conversation on twitter, that is where you will find us, tell us what you think of the show, caroline is that Caroline Hyde tv Caroline Janet yellen has lost her patients, what does that mean for a rate hike. Caroline lets talk about the fed moves, the statement that came out yesterday roger is here to help us look through u. S. U. K. Economics as well as europe. Lets pick up with the Federal Reserve, out goes patients. Is this sort of a fact that basically they dont have much control over what the rest of the world is doing so they have to try to calm everyones excitement. Roger i think they are just nervous. You have for member when rates go up it will be the first time for a decade. I remember in the nerve early 90s it wasnt even a surprise rate hike in the markets went into panic. I think they are being overly nervous but they clearly are anxious theyre saying we are going to raise rates soon but maybe not that soon. They really want to indicate to the markets that they are going to take this cautiously and they do not want the market to panic. Mark they have come down for the year closer to the market thinking, are they still too bullish to use such a word, will we see a rate hike this year . Is there a possibility we wont . Roger i guess it is possible but it is unlikely that we wont. We are penciling in one for june and we have not altered since yesterday. We have rates rising later on this year as well. Mark a slower pace . It will be a slower pace. But the key variable will be wage inflation. They have been a bit spooked by for the fact there hasnt been any real impact or much from the fall in unemployment and we think that is not that unusual. We think it is a matter of time and that there will be an impact on wage inflation. When that starts to come through i think they will get more courageous. Manus has janet yellen demurely joined currency wars . Roger i wouldnt put it like that but obviously there has been a fantastic move its interesting because we are used to the idea that the Exchange Rate doesnt matter very much. Manus but how much does it matter . Roger not as much as it does for countries like britain or European Countries but it does still matter. It will lower the inflation rate and clobber u. S. Exports i dont think oil will be at the forefront of their thinking its not that that will bother them, it is wages and unemployment in the sense that they mustnt clobber the recovery too soon. Various people have reminded them that in 1937 the fed raised rates and it knocked the recovery on the head so i think they will be extremely cautious. Weve heard from the bank of england mark carney saying hes worried about the strength of the pound and the effect that will have on inflation Going Forward lets look at the United Kingdom. You said you could expect fireworks, but we didnt get many actual fire fireworks or rabbits out of hats as people were expecting, roger i thought there were a few bangers and roman candles. I was surprised by the fact that he didnt give anything away. He even took a bit of revenue out. That was a pretty fine judgment i suspect, but he did manage to announce high catching measures partly because although the budget is neutral overall he has clobbered those nasty baddies the banks and the tax invaders. Hes clobbering all the nasties to give money to the goodies the hardworking families and all these people. That meant he wasnt able to muster money for socalled good causes, over and above he has managed to make quite an impact with things that dont cost very much like this change to pensions allowing pensioners to sellout annuities. I think he will be extremely proper there. Caroline great having you in here. Mark after the break we will talk to the chief executive in the u. K. s largest independent oil company. Stay tuned. Manus you are countdown. Lets see how the dollar is reacting after the word patience disappears from the federal bill but janet yellen tells us that doesnt mean we are going to be impatient in our actions. The dollar is down with the biggest oneday drop in the dollar since march 2009. 10 year highs for the dollar against the euro and the yen. The dollar is rising very slightly at the moment the Deutsche Bank says that essentially it was janet yellen indirectly protesting the strength of the dollar. Roger is onset and he was we will talk to him again. He says theyre interested in inflation and unemployment and not so much the strength of the dollar. Stockton says the uptrend will return. Look at this eurodollar. What a turn. The biggest oneday move since the year 2000. From tuesday to wednesday what a colossus move. But reality begins to kick in the bets are out there for a europe lower euros and those are the best. So the euro is returning to form on the downside and again, the fed going at an easier pace, perhaps not as aggressively cut. Cut their overall outlook by over 50 . The aussie dollar up over 2 rock and roll for the aussie dollar and again back. Ubs was here this morning theyve trimmed back their view. We had to thread a needle to the door this morning and they say that is still going to the Third Quarter of this year. The fed needs to act, they are at or pretty much full employment. That is the view from fred needle and ubs. Caroline lets turn our attention to the dollar on the euro and what the ecb is doing on the other side of the occasion. We cannot forget the difficulty with all the stories and the euro seems to be back on its weakening path today. Where do we stand at the moment in the talks that are about to take off in brussels today. This has been a longrunning saga, i have thought all along this is a case of the Irresistible Force meeting the immovable object and i dont think it will have a happy conclusion. I think myself at the most likely thing is that at some point or other greece will exit the euro. For that not to happen, there has to be a considerable climbed down. I dont see it as possible from either side. Caroline merkel seems to be making more positive points saying she doesnt want to have such a heated argument. Roger she is good at making positive points but one of the interesting things about the german position is that even if they want greece to leave they cannot afford to be seen to be pushing greece out. So what she is saying is consistent with the idea that they want greece out. It must be greece driving the group to such a position that there is no other way. Mark can we touch on the election in the u. K. . You have an interesting call on the outcome. Roger i am not a political forecaster but my sense is there a much better sense that people generally think we will sneak an overall majority. Im very much reminded of 1992 when those of us were very young and labor was expected to win. It didnt and the conservatives lost by 30 seats. It wont be as big a majority as that but the economy is going pretty well. People will vote tactically. I suspect the opinion poll may prove to be misleading. Weve covered a lot of ground. Just make sure their support for that letter and the grexit. Always a pleasure sir. Mark there was good news for Oil Producers in the north. Lets bring in a guest to the conversation, he joins us exclusively this morning the chief executive officer. Thank you for joining us. Excuse me for going with the budget first, we will come to the earnings after because this is the big news of the last 24 hours. Oil companies will pay a total of 50 tax on profit down after osborne reduced the supplementary levy. That is essentially a 1. 3 billion pound boost to the oil industry, is it enough . Guest it is a welcome move in the right direction. Three years ago we had a move to the supplementary so i think we will just come back to where we were. From 75 to 110. Prices are significantly below that and it is a move in the right direction and i am pleased about the move on the prt which has gone down from 50 to 35 so the combined cut. So for older fields you have to pay both the Corporate Tax and the supplementary tax and you have to pay the revenue tax so other industries in the business have had tax reduced to 20 where we have had a fixed tax of 30 in the Corporate Tax and then a supplementary tax and it has gone from 30 to 20 and then over and above that is 35 on top of that, 67. 5 . Still a significant amount. Caroline is it going to help your situation because we just had your numbers come out and you are beaten analyst excitations in terms of earnings that clearly you need an impairment charge and 135 million in proposed tax because of oil prices, the assumption is Going Forward. Is this enough to alleviate some of the pain . Guest it is a positive step and im happy that the prt is there the tax has been decreased. The Biggest Issue is the oil price declining most 50 over the last year, but the results of last year dont reflect the full decline of crisis. Caroline more pain to come . Guest unfortunately we are very well placed for this year and next year we are hedged. But i think longerterm, the industry will see higher prices, i am a ball thats why and in this business it is a cyclical business, we have had three good years above a hundred and i think we will have to weather the downturn. Manus talk to us you love to put things away from the consciousness and the thinking away what away from what most people really understand, the rates being put in action are down. The industry is revocably changed, what does that mean what opportunity is that for you and what is the biggest threat . Guest we are positioned with high production efficiency and our production efficiency has got up from 6020 started the company to 88 last year. With a very late life asset, it is a remarkable achievement so our cost base has been relatively flat. Manus two other people want the technology and and snap at your heels. Guess it is a difficult business and you have to be quite robust in terms of the ability to control cost its a complex business with offshore operations. I think we are in a business that is differentiated. I do think they have contributed significantly three years ago 15 billion in taxes came through the treasury. I think well have to weather the times for the treasury will take less to revise the business. Mark with the election osborne offered you an all of branch with every little bit helps but with an election coming, what more do you want from the parties in the running . Guest the Biggest Issue we have now in the right direction is the investment allowance which were trying for the next few days but that helps spur investment. I dont think we will see a rush like when the Oil Prices Went up because the dynamics and economics have changed drastically and will require a comeback in crisis, but what is more important now is on the side of regulation, we have become probably to the extreme of being over regulated. And i think we need to review what we have their in terms of the organization that looks at the industry and make sure we are fit for purpose and able to move forward in a less burdensome manner. Im glad we are in the same boat as the scottish whiskey. Caroline are you tempted to invest . Guest we started a business in the u. K. And it is our core area and hub and we will continue to invest in the north sea but it will be significantly limited. Were focusing on the projects we have in hand which we had just finished. On the second project which will start in 2017. Those are the two big projects. I think were focused on finishing what we have at hand and keeping capital under control for now. Mark the chief executive officer of an quest. Caroline join us on twitter. Let us know your reaction to the budget in terms of handouts to the oil companies. The money taken away mark look what yellen did to the dollar. That is next. Mark welcome back, time for todays bar chart. Look what yellen did to the dollar. One of the 10 leading global currencies. The point i have circled, the green circle is just before you london time 2 00 p. M. Washington time when the fed made the statement. Right then the dollar spot index was there. Ive done a nice annotation. It was a big drop. A 6. 5 hour drop that ended at 12 40 a. M. London time. Resulting introit losses of 2 . Those losses straddle wednesday and thursday morning. For just wednesday, the bloomberg dollar spot index fell. 1. 5 fell by 1. 5 . The dollar has rebounded about half of those losses. Member this is an index that a week ago reached its record high. Having risen for nine consecutive months. This is a rare day. A once or six year day for the fed after it and knowledge to negative consequences of this years gains. Saying the currency is waiting on exports and inflation. What does it mean for the dollar . Interim weakness. According to Jennifer Vail at u. S. Bank world management. She says the dollar will climb again and that is a view shared by sebastian galli. He says the dollar will resume its uptrend in the next few weeks. Driven by trout the pressure of negative Interest Rates elsewhere. The weekly drop going back to monday. Going back to 1. 4 . Still its worst week since october 2011. Wednesday, march 18, 2015. Look what yellen did to the dollar. Caroline lets turn to the u. K. Because after the budget Prime MinisterDavid Cameron is headed to brussels to show he can fight for u. K. Interests in europe. Anna edwards is here with the details. Russia is on the agenda and energy is on the agenda and greece is an elephant an the room. Anna that will be the focus of most people there. It is russia and greece and the negotiation. From a u. K. Perspective, David Cameron is mindful. May 7 is not far off. He has to be sure to be seen fighting for british interests. A poll overnight puts ukip at 14 . David cameron wants to go to europe and paints the leader of the labour party is someone who will take anything the eu throws at him. So the battleground he has picked is vat. He thinks they are being unfairly hit by a rule change that europe brought about. Instead of charging vat on where the company is based have to charge where the customer is based. That means more businesses have to register with vat authority of across europe. He says it is too much red tape and has political mileage over economic mileage. More to come. Caroline funny that ed miliband yesterday it was saying the 18th was their favorite tax to hike up there it interesting battle cry. Manus we also had roger in here. You will be on every day at 11 00 with guy johnson. Anna a new politics show, day trial day two today. Mark dont get him started. Manus cracking first day. You were down on the green yesterday. Give us a favor, what is your top line . Anna it was interesting that we saw a half hour of George Osborne showing off about the economy before he got to policy announcements. He is been prudential in managing the economy. That is the message he wanted to push. Labor doubts the figures and the green party doubts those figures. We caught up with natalie bennett. She says that even if that is what the stats show, that is not how it feels. Natalie his speech was tick in peoples throats. He said everything is on the right path and we are headed in the right direction. One in five workers are on less than a living wage. People are struggling to put food on the table. That doesnt reflect the reality of their lives and the licensee in the future. Anna most interesting to meet with how George Osborne is trying to reset peoples expectations about how austere a tory government would be. He says austerity would and a year early. They have been able to take their surplus forecast down from 23 billion to 7 billion. They cannot make that comparison to the 1930s anymore. Mark thanks a lot. Looking at a live shot of the city of london. Equities poised to open higher. Mark a couple minutes from the u. K. Market open. Lets chat more about the strategy. Marshall, as the dollars ninemonth rally come to an and after the fed announcement . Marshall not at all. If you look at the commitment of traders reports it shows people work incredibly were incredibly long dollar. The dx why had an incredibly long position and every other currency was short by speculators. When the announcement him out, the whole market position went one way. There was a rush to take profits and they did. It was a spectacular move. We havent had a move like that since 2000. It did come off of a high. Technically we have not broken any of the downed trends inyearolddollar. I think inyearold euro dollar. Mark will they raise rates . Marshall as chairman yellen said just because they removed the name patience doesnt mean they will be out of patience. They basically lowered their track by 50 basis points a year. I was expecting them to move in june and now september might be more likely. The timing is different but the direction is the same and that is what is dictating the path of the dollar. Mark the other interesting curry analyzers and speculators and all sorts of people, isyearold euro parity. Some of that move has come back. How quickly could we reach parity . Marshall we have seen spectacular moves and i read somewhere somebody calculated at what rate the eurodollar would go to zero. A lot of that depends on greece. People have forgotten that this week but that isnt improving at all. And with the other rate cuts we have seen we could see parity by the summer as People Get Ready for the first rate hike. Mark any thoughts on sterling . Ahead of the election . Marshall i think the elections are injecting a lot of political risk. The outlook for joe vitor Governor Carney has been a lot more dovish talking about a threat of a higher sterling for the recovery and i think it has seen its best fortune for the time being. Cable will head noticeably lower into the election and given the likely result that wont help it either. Mark inky for joining us. On the move is up next. Anna good morning and welcome to on the move. We are Just Moments Away from the start of european trading. Lets get to your morning brief. The Federal Reserve loses its patient language but chair janet yellen preserves the dovish tone. The door is opened for the Central Banks first rate hike in more than a decade but theres no rush. Will the Swiss NationalBank Surprise again . The smb meets again today. Will it take Interest Rates further into negative territory . We await that decision in 30 minutes time. And, back to brussels. Will greece and germany find a compromise . Could russias see more sanctions . A high tension summit as eu leaders had to belgium. Thats what we are watching this morning. European markets just opening up, getting a first chance to digest what we heard from the Federal Reserve. Lets check in with manus cranny. Manus u. S. Equity markets really surged. The s p of over 1. 4 . Europe just a little bit hesitant. The markets have been surging. When i was reading the notes from janet yellen, i thought, you go on there. You just lit the torch paper of volatility. You mentioned communication. That doesnt mean we are going to be impatient. Volatility in equity markets dropped yesterday. Pulling the French Market back a little bit. Saffron and