The bumpy road towards brexit. Is the United Kingdoms only land border with the Republic Of Ireland a potential flashpoint again . And donald trump says the us economy is booming, but what about those contacts with russia . My guests today are brian oconnell, who is an irish writer and broadcaster. Stephanie baker of bloomberg news. Eunice goes, who is a portuguese author and journalist. Adam raphael who is a british political commentator. Brexit first and the House Of Lords is very exercised about eu residents in britain and trying to make sure they continue to be welcome here. Is this a bit of humanitarian good sense or an attempt to throw a spanner in the works of the governments brexit plans . There are quite a lot of spanners that lie ahead. Do you see this as being that or is it trying to do something for people who are resident here . The government has made it quite clear that although this is a negotiating point, people who are already here are going to stay here. My own view is that the lords would be much better advised to concentrate on the real issue, which is parliamentary consent, to whatever final deal there is than this particular point. I personally am not concerned about this. I can understand people who are here in this country, 3 million or whatever, who are anxious about their future and would like it resolved. But the europeans have made it clear they will not do anything until after brexit has been declared and the negotiations begin. That will be the first item on the agenda, so i do not think it is a substantial issue. I do regard the parliamentary approval of whatever deal there is as crucial. We can discuss that in a minute because that will be coming up this week, but people could be thrown out. There have been 28 of applications for permanent residence which have been rejected by the home office. Some of the dispositions to require permanent residence are in contravention of Single Market rules. For as long as britain is a member of the eu, it needs to comply with those rules. There is the requirement of comprehensive Health Insurance for those citizens not in work or who are students, but this is a contravention of rules and this is creating panic and anxiety for the over 3 million eu citizens who live, work and have made their lives in the uk. It is an urgent matter and it has also affected the lives of british people who are living in eu countries. I do not know about portugal, but i know in spain those british people who live there tend to be older and are often retired, whereas spanish people in this country tend to be younger people looking for work. Is that the same in portugal . Yes. Are british people in portugal being seen as a drain on the Health Service in particular . There will be for sure those who use more the health care service. They have been given a wonderful tax deal. In a way this is an issue and i am interested in what you are saying, but in a sense it is a very short term issue because it will be resolved soon as brexit is declared. The noises coming from the government are not extremely reassuring. I thought the exit bill was going to be the first thing on the agenda. This is the point. It could be another year or so before the fate of eu nationals living in britain is even touched on. Because of this different relationship with ireland it does not matterfor you, does it . This is the problem, we do not know. As far as i am aware, because of the common travel area and all kinds of legislative stuff that support that architecture between the two islands, as far as i am aware it does not apply to irish people. It is all other eu nationals except irish people. But it is the doubt if you come from the eu and you have got children here. Yes, it is the doubt, there are mothers, fathers, Sons And Daughters and people who work in the nhs that brexit wants to bolster and every other thing. Any uncertainty is bad for business and it is being used as a bargaining chip, despite the fact liz truss will not say it. Adam is right in a way that the really big point is whether the House Of Commons has a say or not, or what kind of say, that is the big thing, but this is still quite important. On tuesday they will be considering that in the House Of Lords and we will see what comes of that. But i agree we have done reporting on companies that employ eu migrants and there are a lot of people who feel very insecure and it is affecting their ability to recruit and hire people, particularly in the agricultural sector. The governments position on this is bizarre. They are saying we cannot guarantee the rights of eu nationals to preserve our negotiating position, but do not worry, we will sort it out. That is not very comforting for people who are living here or married to brits. I think the lords position on it may give cover to some of the tory rebels to support that measure. It is unclear. The House Of Lords may say that the House Of Commons should have a bigger say in what goes ahead. That is odd as well, isnt it . The fact is the House Of Lords knows perfectly well it can only push things so far and then whatever ping pong develops between the two houses, in the end the House Of Commons will decide. I would be very surprised if the tory rebels voted in favour of a House Of Lords amendment in this case. In the end, the House Of Lords will yield to this particular issue. But the real issue, i am sorry, is parliamentary voting and on that the vote is much more in doubt. As a former Political Correspondent of many years standing, what do you make of labours position on this . 0h i wish you had not asked. Labour has not got a position, it does not know which way it is going, left, right or centre. Jeremy corbyn is very hostile to europe generally. His party is totally split, his voters are totally split. Frankly, despite keir starmer being rather good for labour, really no one is paying any attention to what they say because theyjust do not have a clearly thought out position. Lets move on. The United Kingdom has one land border with another country, the irish republic, and for decades that has been a flashpoint with killings and bombings along the rural border lands. This week in a degree of political crisis Northern Ireland voters have been electing members of the Stormont Assembly in belfast. How shaky is devolved government in Northern Ireland . And where would brexit leave the island of ireland . We know sinn fein has done very well and the dup are still the largest party, but it is neck and neck. Where do you see this going . Can there be a new stormont devolved assembly or direct rule from london which we have not seen for years . Under the rules the parties have about three weeks. There is a discretionary thing the British Government has where they can extend that if they need to. They have three weeks or so to form a government. I think personally, and it is only personal, that the reasons why sinn fein brought the executive down in the first place, we do not need to go into the details, but what has happened is sinn fein now has a Shopping List and at the top of it is a piece of legislation that they want to put through, which puts the Irish Language on a par with english in governmental institutions in Northern Ireland. It is a throwback to the St Andrews Agreement in 2006. Arlene foster, the leader of the dup, the former first minister, said this is like feeding the crocodile. If you give them something, they want more and more. they being nationalists, sinn fein in particular, and we are not going to do it. It is unlikely she will do it now, following the election, she would not do it beforehand in the first place. As gerry adams said in reply to the crocodile thing, see you later, alligator. If you do not feed the crocodile, you get 100 crocodiles but do you see this because of the demographic changes in Northern Ireland as yet another Stepping Stone towards potentially a United Ireland . I am not sure it is a Stepping Stone. There is a mechanism for a border poll which sinn fein wanted triggered after the Eu Referendum result. It is at the discretion of the Secretary Of State for Northern Ireland, the British Government said no, we are not going to do that now. It is unlikely they will do it in the foreseeable future, but i think there is a fairly strong chance that they will reintroduce direct rule if they cannot Reach Agreement in a few weeks. They could also have another election. Which means effectively they will be run by conservative ministers. Yes, but the important part of this is that just as the article 50 negotiations begin, there is no elected, democratic voice in Northern Ireland discussing the issue that you mentioned at the beginning, the border. This is very complicated, but it is also about the future of the United Kingdom. Scotland is contemplating another Independence Referendum and we have the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom saying it is a top priority keeping the uk together. Brexit is a challenge for the Uk Constitutional Setup and brexits effect on Northern Ireland would be hard in any case, but with an unstable government it is even harder. They are very dependent on eu agricultural subsidies, there are a lot of eu exports from Northern Ireland that are at risk. Now people have talked about they could institute a soft border along the lines of norway and sweden. It is not norway and sweden. Yes, they are not norway and sweden, it is a different situation. How do you see this . The irish republic has been a strong supporter of the eu, it is in the eu. It has all worked so far in recent years to bring peace. It has and the Irish Government was hoping to convince theresa may to choose a soft brexit path. Clearly it has been unsuccessful because theresa may is going for a hard brexit and that will have consequences for Northern Ireland. But more seriously for Northern Ireland what we are going to see, if there is no agreement in three weeks, or even the four weeks of negotiation, there will be flash points if there is going to be direct rule from london. Sinn fein already said they do not see the current British Government as distant, as having a neutral voice, because it has relied on the support of the dup in the westminster parliament. This is the problem, theresa may wants to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, but as many other Prime Ministers, they tend to neglect the celtic borders. Occasionally there are events and problems and they become quite serious. Where do you see this going . Scotland is also part of this mix. There is Something Like 25 million cross border movements between North And South in ireland. There is no way in which you could reinstate that border meaningfully. Frankly, both the European Union and the British Government, and indeed ireland, is faced by a very difficult problem of how somehow there has to be a fudge on this and an open border of some kind. If there are border controls, they will be in liverpool with the old status of mi5 and watching people. That will go down well. The practicalities are a nightmare and i do not see an easy answer to it and i think theresa may is fudging it at the moment and pretending it does not exist. You know that words are really important in covering Northern Ireland. When theresa may said we want as Frictionless A Border as possible, you have to ask what is a Frictionless Border, a hard border, a soft border . Lets assume, as is looking increasingly likely, there is a hard brexit, which means britain is out of the Single Market and the customs union, relying on World Trade Organisation rules instead of some Transitionary Deal that they may have done after article 50. Northern ireland and southern ireland are like that in terms of exports, in terms of business, cultural links and everything. You mentioned agriculture, dairy for example, the milk goes over and back across the border. The milk that goes into our bottle of baileys, a former executive of diageo said to me that milk goes over and across the border five times before it ends up in the bottle after pasteurisation. If you are outside the European Customs Union you have to check all this stuff and you cannot put up a border post because it will be a target. Even if you put a little camera on a big pole, anyone in sinn fein would tell you that will be a target as well. There is no way at the end of two years it will be final. There will be a long period of interim arrangements. I do not know anyone who peers into this opaque murk can come up with an answer, they will be very clever. If somebody found that there was a Frictionless Border between Northern Ireland and the irish republic and people who came into the irish republic from poland or portugal could then travel to Northern Ireland and get on the boat to go liverpool or stranraer, they might be quite cross. Yes. They would say, what is that doing about migration . It is difficult to see how any of this is going to work. So many other things regarding brexit and Northern Ireland, it is very difficult to see how it will work, it will be a fudge. I believe the period of negotiation will go further than two years. The European Union will have to agree to extend the period of negotiation because i cannot see in two years that all the negotiations will be completed. A final thought on scotland. The Prime Minister has been in scotland this week and she has made it clear she wants to keep the uk together. There is a lot of pressure on the first minister of scotland to hold another referendum which she may win or lose. How do you see that . You could see the political case for Nicola Sturgeon going ahead for a referendum as quite strong, the economic case more difficult. She may be forced into a referendum. Frankly, the odds of her winning this time are no better this time and possibly worse, given the economic consequences for scotland. That argument will be run very hard. I think she might try and avoid it. But scottish politics may drive her into it. She is playing a very difficult game very well. She is very clever and a rather good political leader, but she is not in an easy situation. I would not like to be in her position deciding whether to have a referendum or not. How united is the United Kingdom . Devolution has created in many ways more of a sense of scottish identity. You asked about Northern Ireland a minute ago and border polls and so on. I agree that on scotland it is very difficult and i do not think the numbers add up at the moment. The economic argument is worse now than it was in 2014 because of brexit. If Nicola Sturgeon wants to call another referendum, she is best to wait until the article 50 issue is sorted out and do it on whatever economic circumstances prevail then. But referendums are not easy and they do not produce the right result. In ireland Everybody Knows in lisburn they repeated the process and they got a different answer. Does this not give more justification for sinn fein to call a referendum . Sinn fein will continue to call for a border poll, but it is actually the gift of the British Government. Sinn fein cannot trigger it themselves. They will certainly call for another referendum, but i suspect that if i had to put money on it that scotland will be out of the uk before Northern Ireland. Two bits of good news for donald trump. His speech to Congress Went down well this week and the promise of a very un conservative keynesian Public Spending boom pushed up the stockmarket. But not so good news his choice for attorney general, the man in charge of Thejustice Department and hence of the fbi, has had undisclosed links with the russians. Does it matter . It is quite a big story. It is a huge story. We saw his speech to congress, he was in control, read from the teleprompter, but within 2a hours you had this scandal withJeff Sessions erupting and the chaos and the chaos of the Trump Presidency resumed. It is a big deal. It is a big deal that he has recused himself from any investigation into trumps links with russia during the campaign. But broadly speaking this russia thing is not going away. If you look at what happened with mike flynn, the National Security adviser, it took several stories and several leaks before he finally went and we understood what really happened with his conversations with the Russian Ambassador. What is bizarre is that Jeff Sessions basically lied, or did not remember under oath during his Confirmation Hearing about whether or not he had had any contact with the russians during the campaign. He was one of the first senators to come out in support of donald trump. He was viewed as a donald trump surrogate so why he would not press the pause button when he got overtures from the Russian Ambassador in july when he met him is curious. When he did not admit that under oath was very bizarre. That is probably more of a problem than what they discussed. If you have got nothing to hide, if you are talking about a recipe for a borscht or something, you would say you had a couple of conversations and there was no problem. If you do not say, people will find out later. Why did he not mention it . He has raised a lot of suspicions across the party and the press. If we are going to get any answers, it remains to be seen. This information might be very difficult to find. But going back to the initial point, it is incredible we are celebrating the fact that the president s first address to congress was without accident, he used the teleprompter without shouting or screaming or sounding divisive. Although his speech was not as president ial as it could have been. As for his plans for america, it is also vague and he is worrying a lot of people. There is a lack of clarity in the way that the president sees his president ial role and how he operates and works with other Democratic Institutions in the united states. His economic plan, his so called keynesian economic plan, i would not go so far as calling it that, it is open to debate whether it will happen or not. The wisdom in washington is the president proposes and congress disposes, so he cannot spend any money anyway and it is a matter for congress. Some might say lets spent a lot of money that we never wanted to spend. Cracks will begin to emerge. Whatever donald trump is, and it is difficult to see what he is, he is not a republican in my view and he is not a conservative. These divisions with the Republican Congress and the senate will emerge. He is directly opposed to many of the leading republicans in congress. The other thing which is odd is that he has a rust belt constituency, which is the bulk of his support, to honour his commitments to. If you give the majority of your tax cuts to the very richest 1 of americans, there is no way he will bring back steel or coal or whatever, even if he wanted to, he could not do it. So there is real trouble ahead in congress for him and also with his key constituencies. I think the Infrastructure Spending is something he does have bipartisan support for. The democrats were trying to get that through with barack obama and they were thwarted. What i am interested to see and watch is whether or not they get some sort of Infrastructure Plan in place and they have it targeted towards some of those key states where donald trump won, the rust belt states. There is not going to be a real labourforce, this will go to big contracts and big companies. It could create employment, but he has got to move fast if he wants that to take effect. He is not able to do it because of everything else, all the clutter. He did well with the congressional speech, the markets rose and everything else, and suddenly within 24 hours this happens because he has got all this clutter around what he is trying to do and it is back to chaos as usual. I do not understand whyJeff Sessions did not tell the truth. I do not understand that, it is a simple thing, he had nothing to hide. Did you meet the ambassador . Yes. And he is the attorney general, that is the key point. He is the chief law officer in the country and here is the man who wanted president clinton done for perjury in 1999 when he was impeached. John dean of Watergate Fame was tweeting this week saying essentially it is the cover up which gets you in the end, trust me, i know about this. Whatever they discussed with the russians it is the fact that it does not seem to be in their own interests to come out and just tell us what they discussed. That is why people keep digging, the American Press in particular. Exactly and we do not know the full extent of the Donald Trump Campaign supporters and associates and their contact with the russians. A lot more will come out on this, i guarantee. Thats it for Dateline London this week. You can comment on the programme on twitter gavinesler and engage with our guests. Were back next week at the same time. Make a date with Dateline London. Goodbye. Hello, we have had quite a bit of work and blustery weather already today. Some rain has been blustery through wales and the peak district, scotla nd through wales and the peak district, scotland as well. We also have some big clouds around today, showers across scotland will be tending to ease away. And improving picture across scotland and Northern Ireland, low pressure moves northwards but further south in england and wales, link boring Weather Fronts bring windy conditions in wales and the south west, lingering. Snow over the hills. Through wales and the north and the pennines. Northwards, in scotland at 3pm this afternoon, a return to sunshine, six or 7 degrees. Isolated showers in scotland, Northern Ireland strives out in the afternoon, chilly in belfast. Cloudy in northern england, al breaks of rain outbreaks of rain. Some showers in the west are heavy, the odd rumble of thunder and gusts of wind in the south west of england and wales. Things quiet on this evening and overnight, wet weather clears with drier conditions, and with clear spells it will be a chilly night. A touch of frost in the north, icy stretches in places, and misty and murky places first thing on monday morning. Rain in the south west, heavy for some time, that clears quickly, and elsewhere in the country, monday looks like a decent day compared to what weve seen outside today. Sunny and dry weather, a scattering of showers. Some hail, 7 iid. The new working week starts on a reasonably quiet note. It turns unsettled once again. This atlantic system heads into the west on tuesday. Most of us start tuesday on a dry night. Eastern areas keep sunshine in the day but in the west, called brings outbreaks of rain, strengthening winds, there could be some snow in the high ground of scotland and temperatures of 7 iid for most of us. Temperatures of 7 iid for most of us. Unsettled beams continue towards the end of the week, spells of Rain Interspersed with sunshine unsettled themes. Temperatures up at 13 degrees by wednesday, and thursday. More details on the weather for the week ahead on the website
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