Tonight at ten urgent action is needed to control the pandemic, or there could be many thousands of new cases every day within a month. The governments chief Scientists Say all four nations of the uk now face a Tipping Point and the public have to respect the Health Guidelines. If we dont do enough, the virus will take off, and at the moment, that is the path that we are clearly on, and if we do not change course, then we are going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem. Cases are increasing. Hospitalisations are following. Deaths unfortunately will follow that, and there is the potential for these to move very fast. In bolton, where tougher restrictions have been in place for the past two weeks, people complain of continued uncertainty. People are quite scared to, you know, go out. Were given so much contradictory information, im now at the point where i dont know what to think. Officials have raised the level of alert, and with the number of cases on the rise, expect more instructions from the Prime Minister tomorrow. Well have more on the chief scientists warning and their talk of a six month period of challenges ahead. Also tonight. More than 100 sports bodies write to the Prime Minister calling for an emergency Sports Recovery Fund in the wake of the pandemic. The inquiry into the Manchester Arena bombing hears from more families of those killed in the attack in 2017. And a look at the Campaign Battle online, with conspiracy theories aplenty, in the us president ial contest. And coming up in sport on bbc news. Manchester city find their form in their opening game of the season. Phil foden, among the scorers against wolves. Good evening. Without further action to limit the spread of coronavirus, there could be 50,000 new cases every day in the uk by mid october, according to the governments chief scientists. Sir Patrick Vallance and professor chris whitty say all four nations of the uk now face a Tipping Point, and they stressed the importance of respecting the Health Guidelines at all times. Officials have recommended that the covid alert level be raised to four, which means the transmission rate is high or rising exponentially. The Prime Minister will chair a meeting of cobra, the emergency committee, tomorrow morning, before making a statement to the house of commons, when hes expected to outline new restrictions. Our medical editor, fergus walsh, has the latest. No one wants to see another huge wave of covid cases in hospital, with nhs staff working round the clock in ppe. But the governments key advisors on the pandemic delivered a sombre warning although hospital cases are lower now compared to april, that could all change. If we dont do enough, the virus will take off, and at the moment, that is the path that we clearly are on, and if we do not change course, then we are going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem. Its thought the epidemic is doubling in size in the uk every week. Now, if that was to happen for the next four weeks we could have nearly 50,000 cases per day. And this wasnt a prediction from government scientists, now, this wasnt a prediction from government scientists, and it doesnt take into account measures to control covid, like the rule of six, which only came into force a week ago. And it would still be half the estimated number of cases that we saw in early april. Government scientists are worried that we could be just a few weeks behind spain and france, where cases have soared in recent weeks, although much of that will be among younger people who are unlikely to fall ill. Covid has had a profound impact on many who survive the disease. The message today was, take action now to tackle the rise in cases or see the virus spreading again among the vulnerable, with perhaps 200 deaths a day by november. The challenge, therefore, is to make sure that we do not enter into this exponential growth and end up with the problems that you would predict as a result of that. That requires speed, it requires action, and it requires enough in order to be able to bring that down. If we look at admissions to hospital in england with a confirmed covid diagnosis, theyve been rising for the past couple of weeks and now stand at around 200 patients per day. If we go back to the beginning of april, though, back then, up to 3000 patients were being admitted every day, so were still a long way off that figure. One key problem that needs sorting is the delay many have faced trying to get a swab test to find out whether they have the infection. Thats a key part of knowing exactly where and how quickly the virus is spreading. Sadly, im not that optimistic that we can suppress the epidemic as much as we would like, and i think we do need to start thinking about how we identify and advise and protect the most vulnerable, the people who are more likely to get severely ill. Enjoying the freedom to eat out late while they can. The weather, and the rules, are set to change. The government Scientists Say curbing the virus will continue to be an issue for the next six months. It could be a long winter. Fergus walsh, bbc news. As we said, the Prime Minister is expected to outline further measures tomorrow to try to limit the rise in infections. The measures hell announce will be for england and they might include ordering pubs to close at 10pm. But downing street says the four home nations have agreed to act with a united approach as much as possible. New local lockdowns were announced in south wales today, and in scotland more than one and a half Million People are living with local restrictions. Our political editor, laura kuenssberg, looks ahead to the Prime Ministers statement tomorrow. The scientists faces show its serious. But its the politicians that must decide. Its behind the door where the new lines will be drawn. Nothings final. Likely tomorrow to start with calling time earlier at the pub. After locking down, then opening up, nerves in this Huge Industry about what might be next. We need to socialise, people cannot go through another six months without socialising. I do not see the need for further enforcements and further restrictions in pubs whatsoever. We are. We are the home of responsible socialising. So, the welcome back signs might be succeeded by others. Alongside a likely ten oclock closing time, tougher fines have already been announced for those who dont follow the rules. But its been a dilemma to arrive at a plan. The rise in cases was clear the way forward for ministers, not quite so much. Were working right now on what further measures may be necessary and the Prime Minister will update the house tomorrow with any more action that we to take. This is a moment where we once again must come together to tackle this deadly disease. This virus takes lives and it leaves many with long term debilitating conditions. Every reasonable action must be taken to save lives, minimise harm and keep our children in school. Its not a question of if there will be some form of new restriction, but a conversation at the top of government about exactly what, where and when. Go too far, and there could be unnecessary damage to the economy, but dont go far enough, and the virus could spread out of control. Ministers are adamant, though, that schools and most workplaces will stay open. This is not a return to march, when the whole country was told, stay at home. Remember, more than ten Million People are already living with tighter restrictions across the uk a patchwork of areas with stricter rules that now includes parts of wales, Northern Ireland and scotland, too. Implementing further measures now is very much, i hope, about controlling this virus while avoiding the need for another full scale lockdown. But while there might be concern everywhere, in some places, the virus has onlyjust returned, rather than roaring back. For the couple behind the bar at the horse jockey in somerset, any new restrictions might feel unfair. On the basis that the numbers are fairly low around here, i think it is frustrating, because initially it was going to be targeting certain areas where there was a rise in the virus. It will have an impact on the business, and to us personally, because if we have to close, then were in that situation again whereby were having to just get by. Complete closures look to be off, for now, but there is more resistance to any tightening these days. The disease itself is a deadly foe, and the final decisions made over the next few hours could shape the next few months of our lives. Laura kuenssberg, bbc news, westminster. The latest official figures show the daily number of new infections is rising, with 4,368 cases recorded for the previous 2a hours. That means the average number of new cases per day in the last week was 3,929. There were 11 deaths of people whod had a positive covid test in the previous 28 days, numbers are always a little lower on a monday. Our medical editor, fergus walsh, is with me, but first to laura at westminster. We mentioned this statement tomorrow by the Prime Minister, what more can you tell us about what he is likely to be saying . I think boris johnson will be very visible tomorrow at the cobra meeting, and also in the commons, and there will be more instructions and more promises of tough enforcement, and this time on thursday it is likely that at ten past ten or so, the pubs will already have kicked out. The kind of measure that will have an impact on people and businesses around the country. But the Prime Minister as i understand it is going to stop short of going as far as some of the chatter and some of the proposals that have been discussed might have suggested, for now. That is partly because downing street believes there is still a tiny window where they can bring in new measures that could control the spread of the virus without having to take more draconian action. But it is also because the political environment has really changed since this all began. There is much more restlessness on the tory backbenches about accepting tough restrictions. There is also more knowledge and more understanding of the disease in government, with the hope that they can stick to things that are more nuanced. But there is also i think a concern right at the top of government about how receptive the public will be to these kinds of measures unless they are absolutely necessary. One member of the cabinet suggested to me that any kind of tough new restriction could be hellishly unpopular, and so much of this depends on the public being willing to take part. Unless and until these measures are deemed to be completely necessary, therefore, i think there is a concern in the government about making sure that the public is onside. Laura kuenssberg at westminster, many thanks. Coming to fergus in the studio, and we are mentioning Peoples Trust in the system, when we look at hospital admissions, as you were explaining, they are nowhere near where they were back in march and april and that is why lots of people are sceptical it seems about the need for new measures, what is the answer to that . Well, the 50,000 cases per day that was mentioned earlier, i would steer you away from that figure. It was merely an innerstraight and away from that figure. It was merely an inner straight and of what we call exponential growth, with cases doubling and then doubling again. Merely an illustration. We know that covid cases tend to rise very fast and then fall much more slowly. What chris whitty said quite candidly today was that we need something sustainable for the next six months. If you dont do enough, the virus surges, but you go too hard and you affect the economy, unemployment, poverty and other huge knock on effects for health. As for a vaccine, Patrick Vallance said we might, we might, get some cases before winter, but even if all goes well, for the most part, we wont get them until the first half of next year. Fergus, many thanks again, fergus walsh, our medical editor. The Health Secretary for england has announced that in areas under local lockdowns , grandparents and others who provide informal childcare for children under 1a will be exempt from coronavirus rules that prevent households from mixing. Matt hancock said hes introducing the changes because of concerns about the impact of local lockdowns on families childcare arrangements. Bolton in Greater Manchester is one of the areas where tighter restrictions have been imposed, including a ban on being in other peoples homes, pubs, bars and restaurants offering take away or delivery only, and venues forced to close at 10pm. Infection rates continue to be high there, but the rate has started to come down. Our special correspondent ed thomas has been assessing the latest situation. The warning signs are for all to see. To stop a bolton lockdown. And hear. Dont mix with other households. Youll be fine if you dont. Youll be fined if you do. For six weeks, bolton has faced more and more covid restrictions. No household mixing, essential travel only and now, pubs and restaurants are takeaway only. But still, the town has the highest infection rate in the uk. Well, it should be full of life and vibrant and busy. Chris and rebecca had big plans for their new business, but that was before covid and before the local ban here on pubs opening. We have no end in sight of when anythings going to change. Whats going to happen if this continues . Bankruptcy. We come in here, we work hard, and it mightjust all be over. For weeks, they followed the rules. The importance of self isolation. And todays corona briefing offered little comfort. I dont know if itll survive for six months. Were the guinea pigs for the nation, i think. I dont think its worked, and so what potentially is happening is they changed tack on that, but then theyjust left us sailing in the wind with nothing. We heard that frustration again and again. What has it been like here in bolton . Desperate. Were given so much contradictory information. Im now at the point where i dont know what to think. Despite weeks of sacrifice, many here want to know why cases are still high. People are quite scared to go out. Would you support even tougher measures . Yeah, i think i would, because something needs to be done. How long have you been shielding for . Ive been shielding right since the start of lockdown. David is the leader of bolton council. Why are cases dropping in a meaningful way despite the restrictions . Things do take time, so we are starting to see the early signs of certainly a decrease in the rate of increase in cases. We are hopefully starting to see the beginnings of those signs plateauing. But exactly when will all this end for bolton . Half of the shops here are boarded up already. Cleaners like angela and nikki fear unintended consequences. We stick to the rules, we dont go mingling and things like that, but were being punished. We cant go anywhere. Lancaster, northwest parts of yorkshire, those towns that are already struggling with closures already now have even more things closed. Public Health Leaders hope restrictions here will work. They say its vital to save lives. Ed thomas, bbc news, bolton. As weve heard, borisjohnson spoke to the first ministers of scotland, wales and Northern Ireland this afternoon, telling them that the rising number of cases was a cause of great concern. In a moment well have the latest from our scotland editor sarah smith, and our ireland correspondent emma vardy, but first heres the latest from wales and our correspondent hywell griffith. Here in wales, its starting to feel a significant change is coming. Already, four new lockdown areas announced. Blaenau gwent, bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil and newport. New measures coming in there tomorrow at 6pm, joined with caerphilly and Rhondda Cynon taff, it means 850,000 people will be put under tougher lockdown rules. It means that people arent allowed to travel in or out of their local council area without a good reason, going to work or to education. People arent allowed to meet indoors with anyone from another household, and there is an 11pm curfew for pubs, clubs, bars and restaurants. But even now, already, there is talk of a much wider lockdown area across all of south wales. Police officers, the nhs and Council Leaders are meeting tomorrow. And even what they decide might be overtaken by anything agreed by the four nations at tomorrows cobra meeting. Here in scotland, Nicola Sturgeon says fast and urgent action is required. And shes going to make an announcement tomorrow afternoon about new restrictions across scotland, because it is up to the scottish government, of course, to set its own distinct rules. But the first minister says, in these circumstances, it does make sense to have a broadly similar approach across the whole of the uk, even if the rules are not identical in each individual nation. Shes taken a more cautious approach in the past than westminster, and already there are restrictions in place in glasgow and the surrounding areas, and in lanarkshire, that prevent people from visiting each others homes. Nicola sturgeon spoke to borisjohnson on the phone this afternoon, and im told the two leaders are not too far apart on what measures they are planning. Well find out more tomorrow. Last week, localised restrictions were brought in here in postcodes where cases were highest. But now those restrictions are being extended across the whole of Northern Ireland. So that means from tomorrow evening, at six oclock, people will not be able to visit indoors in other peoples homes, with a few exceptions for things like child care. But it will feel like a significant step back from where we were. And ministers here at stormont held an extra meeting this afternoon to decide upon the move, and make that announcement. And it comes against a backdrop of concern over house parties in the student areas of belfast, controversy over the weekend over a pitch invasion at a gaa match, and Police Increasingly trying to crack down on those breaking the rules. That was emma vardy, our correspondent in belfast. Some of the governments Financial Support schemes are due to be phased out in the coming weeks, but now the treasury is considering extending them. Our economics editor faisal islam is with me. Whats going on . We are already seeing an impact in global stock markets. In europe, they were down 396 496. Markets. In europe, they were down 3 4 . That was driven by falls in the of airlines in the uk, as Global Finance starts to come to the reality that we may be facing some sort of second wave of this pandemic. If you take a step back from what we have seen today, that kind of exponential growth in the virus would be a tremendous Health Disaster and also a disaster for the economy. So thats why the government is trying to act, the relationship between the economy and the virus. At the same level, when things were shut down in april, it cost us 20 of the economy. If we had a tumour grow weak circuit breaker, you are talking about setting back the recovery six months ora setting back the recovery six months or a year. Its very delicate. That is why i think you are not going to get a national shut down, because of the impact on the economy. But i think many of the sectors that have been on their knees, hospitality, leisure, will fear the words of chris whitty, when he said it was a six month problem. The chancellor said that a bridge was required for the economy, and many will now be arguing that the bridge needs to be extended, in this current reality. More than a hundred sports bodies have written to the Prime Minister, calling for an emergency Sports Recovery Fund, as they struggle to cope financially in the wake of the pandemic. From the football asociation and premier league to swim england and the lawn tennis association, theres a consistent message, that the sports sector is vitally important, and until spectators can return, it needs more support, as dan roan reports. From premier league football, in wolverhampton. Superbly worked . To Womens International cricket in derby. Sport continued tonight. But it did so amid mounting concern. More than 100 sports bodies today, writing to the Prime Minister in a plea for emergency funding. In a letter seen by the bbc, the group, including the governing bodies of football, rugby and cricket, says, at a time when our role should be central to the nations recovery, the future of the sector is perilous. Covid 19 has undermined our commercial revenue streams. The impact will potentially lead to a lost generation of sport and activity. British cycling is one of those asking for a Sports Recovery Fund. And the woman in charge told me theres no time to lose. Were facing an existential crisis. And perhaps because some televised sports returned, people believe that everything is ok. When, actually, from grass roots up to professional sport, there is real peril. The sport and leisure sector says it contributes more than £16 billion and 600,000 jobs to the economy. But many grassroots facilities, such as swimming pools, remain closed. 22 have not opened. And it means there are pockets of the country without any water provision at all. But the ones that are open also are open for less hours, and with a lot less footfall going through the door. So were worried that we have fought really hard for pools to open, but we could find, without support for the sector, the doors may close again. Sports had been hoping that spectators might be permitted back inside venues like this for the First Time Since march next month. But the bbc understands that sports are about to be asked by government what the impact would be if action remained behind closed doors for several more months. For football clubs in the lower leagues, dependent on match day revenue, the answer to that question is bleak. We average crowdsa of about 1200 or 1500, normally. And for us, it is absolutely essential. And we just couldnt open our doors, couldnt Start Playing without crowds. We would have to close. So far, sports muddled through this pandemic racing continuing this afternoon. But long term viability depends on the return of fans soon. And the odds on that seem to be lengthening. Dan roan, bbc news. The inquiry into the Manchester Arena bombing has been hearing from more families of the 22 people who were killed in the attack in 2017. The husband of one victim has thanked the people of the city for coming together in the wake of the attack, and for restoring his faith in humanity. Our north of england corespondent Judith Moritz reports. Start making your way towards the city centre, please. In the aftermath of the Manchester Arena attack, news cameras captured some of the chaos and horror. But they couldnt tell the whole story only the hurt our north of england corespondent Judith Moritz reports. Like the family of michelle kiss, whose murder leaves three children without a mother. On that fateful night, michelle was just waiting for our daughter. She wasjust being a mum. Michelle died, but somehow my daughter survived. Amazingly, and so, so thankfully, she was physically unscathed. However, the horrors she must have witnessed in the aftermath of the explosion are fully known only to herself. In the days after the attack, the people of manchester stood together in grief. Michelles husband described the comfort he got from that city wide support. They demonstrated in the most incredible way that choosing love can be the more powerfulforce. For this, i say thank you to the wonderful manchester people, for restoring my faith in humanity during the hardest time of my life. Through pictures, video, music and anecdotes, little by little we are getting to know each of those who died, through the tributes their families have created. Some come to court to speak in person, others to watch, as their words are read out orfilms shown. Hi, im elaine mcivers sister, linda. Do a pen portrait, they said. The mcivers said that pictures would paint a thousand words for them, and opened their family photo album in tribute to elaine. Thejones family came the court and also chose to show photos, explaining that 14 year old nell lit up their days with energy and passion. Afterwards, the inquiry chairman spoke directly to them. What comes over most strongly is the sense of loss that everyone feels at her death. And my overwhelming impression is, what a waste. Elaine, michelle and nell were remembered as embracing life. Not thought of as victims, but with love, as a sister, a sweetheart and a soulmate. Judith moritz, bbc news, manchester. Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich secretly owned stakes in players at other clubs, an investigation has discovered. The players included the peruvian winger andre carrillo, who turned out against chelsea in Champions League matches in 2014. Mr abramovichs spokesman told bbc panorama that the deals were lawful and did not breach rules or regulations at the time. The former Prime Minister theresa may has made a strongly worded attack on the governments internal market bill, the measure which ministers admit will break International Law by overriding parts of the brexit wthdrawal agreement with the eu. Mrs may told mps why she would not be voting for the bill in the commons tomorrow. The government is acting recklessly and irresponsibly, with no thought to the long term impact on the standing of the United Kingdom in the world. This will lead to untold damage to the United Kingdoms reputation. It puts the future of the United Kingdom at risk and, as a result, with regret, i have to tell the minister i cannot support this bill. Theresa may in the commons today. Labour has accused the government of mismanaging billions of pounds of taxpayers money in its response to the pandemic. Speaking at the annual party conference, which is being held as a virtual event, the shadow chancellor, anneliese dodds, accused ministers of a cavalier approach to public spending which included spending money on testing kits and Personal Protective Equipment that turned out to be unusable. While the chancellor was profiting from a Financial System that took huge risks, then passed them on to ordinary people, i helped to rein it in. As chancellor, i would ensure that public money was always spent wisely. Targeted where it is needed most, not splurged where it isnt. And the labour leader, sir keir starmer, will address the virtual labour conference tomorrow. It will be broadcast in a politics live special on bbc two from 9am. The us president ial election is just six weeks away, and aside from the main campaigning by President Trump and his democratic rivaljoe biden, voters are taking the debate online in record numbers. As they do, concerns are growing that conspiracy theories on various social media platforms on both sides of the political divide could have a meaningful impact on the outcome of the vote. Our reporter marianna spring, who specialises in investigating disinformation, has more details. There is the Election Campaign you see on the surface. And then theres the one being waged beneath it, a subterranean social media campaign sucking people into a world dominated by conspiracy theories. And it could impact their vote. Qanon is one of them. It claims President Trump is fighting a secret war against elite, satan worshipping paedophiles. Though completely unfounded, its been entertained by the man himself. These are people that love our country, they just dont like seeing it. So, i dont really know anything about it other than they do supposedly like me. Tom long runs a local Facebook Group in the swing state of florida. Its one of the places false claims from qanon has reached. You see all these crazy things that are posted and reposted, and then reposted. And if you know that person, you think, oh, that person knows what theyre talking about. And then it gets spread, and spread, and spread. Even though its completely false. Qanon has also surfaced on younger platforms like instagram and tik tok