Mode. Well tell you why. And. Can economists be compared to Weather Forecasters when it comes to prediciting the future . Our economics editor kamal ahmed will be here with that and a look back at the rest of the business week. And following the impact of Donald Trumps toyota tweet, we want to know whats the biggest twitter storm youve ever sparked 7 just use the hashtag bbcbizlive. We start with samsung because in the last few hours the South Korean Tech Giant has said its on track for the best quarterly profits in more than three years. Its a major boost for the company after the exploding Smartphone Scandal that put a serious dent in its reputation. In the three months to the end of december, samsung is forecasting profits of 7. 8 billion. Thats up by half on the same period last year, much better than expected and the best quarter since mid 2013. That might come as a surprise, as we know samsung was forced to scrap its top of the range phone, the galaxy note 7, after a spate of exploding batteries. Hugely embarrassing and hugely expensive. It has warned the scandal sent more than 5 billion of profit up in smoke. So why is it doing so well . In a word components. Samsung makes chips and screens for the whole tech industry. Samsung hasnt revealed the details but its thought to have been the best quarter ever for its semiconductor division. It makes the complex chips that are more and more in demand as phones get smarter, and the prices of those have jumped. So despite the exploding phone scandal, samsungs investors have had a pretty good year, shares up by almost 50 over the past year. Cyrus mewawalla, managing director of Global Technology Research Company cm research is with me. Thank you for coming in. Looking at those figures, giving everything thats happened in the past year, it sounds like a pretty positive result from shareholders but how will they be feeling . I think Samsung Management have done a very good job this year. Record profits and the share price has gone up 50 . Looking forward , share price has gone up 50 . Looking forward, samsungs future may not be that rosy for the rest of 2017. Earnings momentum will carry it for a few weeks or months, but there are big roadblocks ahead of the samsung. Its a very successful hardware company, the eighth largest tech company, the eighth largest tech company in the world, but its week on software. If you look at the fact samsung are strong on chips and smartphones but that is yesterdays story. Tomorrows story is a whole new theme of technology, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, internet tv, cyber security, the cloud. All these things have one thing in common which is software. You need to have a Software Ecosystem to plug into which is where samsung is weak. ecosystem to plug into which is where samsung is weak. I was talking to an expert this morning who was telling us about the price of chips. Normally chip prices have come down but some of the chips, d ram . Those prices are up, why are those prices 7 prices are up, why are those prices up . Prices of dram have risen because there was an unexpectedly good demand from Smartphone Makers all Around The World. If you ask any a nalyst, all Around The World. If you ask any analyst, hell have a massive supply and demand model. They will move out of sync and when there is too much Demand Prices will go up. This can change very, very quickly. Whats more important in 2017 as far as samsungs Chip Division is concerned is new chip technologies. Samsung is a specialist in memory chips, but what is happening Around The World is Chip Architectures are changing so is Chip Architectures are changing so logic chips and memory chips are coming closer together and new type vulnerable types of chips are being developed. Ai chips are going to be big. Intel and micron are developing a new chip that could blow the technology out of the water. Thank you forjoining us this morning. In other news. The australian economy has recorded its first Trade Surplus in nearly three years. The latest official numbers show the country exported more than 900 million more goods and services than it imported in november. The resource rich nation saw big growth in exports of coal, iron ore and other raw materials. It means australia is likely to avoid the recession that some economists had feared, after the economys suprise in contraction in the Third Quarter of last year. Mexicos president has defended a sharp increase in the price of petrol despite protests and looting. More than 250 people have been arrested. Fuel prices went up by as much as 20 at the beginning of the month after the Government Cut subsidies. Enrique pena nieto said the changes were necessary because of the rise in global oil prices. The average price of a gallon of petrol is now almost as much as the daily minimum wage. Youve got the live page. What did you find . In the uk weve got some results out today. We mentioned next, a huge uk retailer. Share is continuing to fall after a disappointing christmas sales. That story is being reflected Around The World. What about this, outsmarted by your toothbrush. This is from the Consumer Electronics show. I think its smart, it tells me how long ive been doing it for but it also says if you are pressing too hard. Its not a fancy things. Tesla . That is yesterdays lets move on lets talk about this. The power of a tweet, some can be good, some can be bad. Shares in the japanese car maker toyota closed nearly 1. 7 down. They were at one point down nearly 3 . It is because donald trump did something. He sent a tweet. He wrote that. Sarah toms has more from singapore. Sarah, sorry, we arejust sarah, sorry, we are just chatting away good to see you. At one point that trump tweet knocked 1. 2 billion off the value of toyota thats right. As you said, toyota shares fell more than 3 in early trade on friday. But they did recover some ground. Closing down around 1. 7 . You have do remember, too, that the drop could be due to the power of a trump tweet, but it could also have been influenced by a slightly stronger yen which is bad news for the countrys exporters. Despite mr trumps warnings, toyotas president said the company has no immediate plans to curb production in mexico. Toyota has ten Manufacturing Plants in the us and the company s us arm says production and employment levels in the us wouldnt decrease because of the us wouldnt decrease because of the new mexican plant. Lower labour costs a nd the new mexican plant. Lower labour costs and the nafta Free Trade Area makes it attractive firms to make ca rs makes it attractive firms to make cars in mexico to sell in the us. Mr trump says he will end this practice as it is costing american jobs. Have as it is costing american jobs. Have a great weekend the markets appear to be risk on mode. But why . Well, traders suggesting it could be because of the returns on us debt, bonds, is stabilising. It could be signs of stability in europe, or a recovery in oil. Anything that has been battered by higher us rates is coming back. Europe whats interesting here. 0n the markets Around The World, is a correction of the trump trade since the election. The markets have been trying to fully price in his policies just based on hopes. Thats what the traders are telling us. Talking of telling us, lets go see what samira has to tell us about the big biz news on the other side of the pond. Well, if its the first friday of a new month then it is jobs report day. This will be the first unemployment report for the new year. It will be an opportunity for the Us Labor Department to offer insights on trends for the Labour Market for the entire year of 2016. Now for the month of december, economists are expecting to have added about 178,000 jobs, similar to what we saw for the month of november. The Unemployment Rate is likely to have increased to 4. 7 in december. Also being released friday is novembers International Trade report. It will likely show that the Trade Deficit narrowed for the month. The results of this report could impact Growth Estimates for the us economy in the Fourth Quarter. Joining us is richard dunbar, Investment Director at Aberdeen Asset management. Thank you for coming in. We are going to start off talking about bitcoin, the Digital Currency that had headlines a couple of months ago. It fell 20 overnight. Explain to us, what is bitcoin . Digital or crypto currency on the web. Invented bya crypto currency on the web. Invented by a programmer who we dont know who he or she is. It is peer to peer, there is no central bank looking after it for us. Which has made it very popular in an era when Central Banks seem to be falling over themselves to debase their currencies. So no tangible notes or coins . Its all cyber. All cyber but accepted by 100,000 retailers Around The World. You can Swa P Retailers Around The World. You can swap it for dollars. You can buy your groceries with it in some places and swap it for other currencies. Wasnt it the best performing currency last year . Its doubled, more than doubled over the past year. Its had some wobbles over its short history since 2008, but fell 20 overnight. What is over its short history since 2008, but fell 2096 overnight. What is the appeal of bitcoin . Appeal is that its not controlled by Central Banks or politicians. It competes with traditional currencies and since the financial crisis we had seen Central Banks and governments falling over themselves to reduce the value of their currencies, boost exports and their currencies, boost exports and their economy. Which is great for those economies but if you are selling these currencies and you either dont trust or trust these politicians then maybe Something Else is better. I suspect, and my traditional training would suggest that a fool and his money are easily parted but it has been a big performer. Do you have any . No. Well leave it there. Identity then have any real money i dont even have any real money i dont even have any real money coming up what do economists and Weather Forecasters have in common . Youre with Business Live from bbc news. Consultants bdo say high Street Retail sales last month were down slightly compared to the previous year. Thats the fourth year in a row of falling sales and follows a dramatic plunge in sales in december 2015. Our Business Correspondent Theo Leggettjoins us now from the business newsroom. Theo, what does this say about the health of the high street . There has been a fall in december sales for the past four years. This yea rs were sales for the past four years. This years were only down slightly on last year, but that was after what was really seen as a very bad year last year. There hasnt been much recovery, that cant be a good thing. Another point i took from this report is that the first three weeks in december were pretty awful. The month as a whole retailers was kind of saved by the week before christmas. Christmas fell on a sunday so we had Christmas Eve being a saturday. That really brought people are out shopping. 0verall for the month it was a bad period for the month it was a bad period for the high Street Retailers. If they cant do well in december that doesnt bode well for them Going Forward , doesnt bode well for them Going Forward, especially as we are expecting inflation to be on the up over the next few months. Internet retailers did rather well. They did, but in general consumers are still spending, right . Theyre still putting their hand in their pocket . Absolutely, just because they arent going to the high street doesnt mean they arent spending. We saw a 20 increase in Online Shopping and a 50 increase in the run up to christmas. At the moment, Consumer Sentiment seems to be holding up relatively well. Some areas arent doing as well as others. Home where, soft furnishings are doing well. Retailers who are in fashion are struggling. We had the results from next, they arent alone. Fashion retailers are feeling the pinch. Pa rt retailers are feeling the pinch. Part of that is because of the weather. It hasnt been cold enough, obviously you brits love to blame the weather and everything. What have you got . Do you check your e mail for work at home . I check it all the time. I dont think of it as a chore. I have fom0, fear of missing out. Workers in france have been told they dont have to be compelled to check e mails outside office hours. The french have a 35 hour working week. They have got it right know they havent, look at the economy. Youre watching Business Live. Our top story. Samsung electronics expects to report a 50 surge in Fourth Quarter profits, despite the fiasco with its flagship note 7 phone. We seem to have a short memory, but it is more their components side thatis it is more their components side that is pushing those profits out. A quick look at how markets are faring. Markets are all in the red. But they have had a cracking time of it. The ftse 100, have had a cracking time of it. The ftse100, only early in the day, but the ftse 100 the ftse100, only early in the day, but the ftse100 has had Something Like three new record, continuous record highs in succession. You think it is time for a correction . Its only the end of the first week of 2017 and already some of the big themes of the coming year are with us. Theres the incoming us President Donald Trump, who yesterday sent a tweet that caused toyota shares to plummet. And then there are the ongoing negotiations over brexit, including the resignation of the uks ambassador to the eu, sir ivan rogers. Plus, the Bank Of Englands Chief Economist has admitted that economists, like Weather Forecasters, can sometimes get things very wrong. When i said the big bloke, i said that with absolute respect 0ur Economics editor kamal ahmed is with us. What was andy haldane talking about exactly . Is hea is he a mate of yours . No, and neither is donald trump, but his policies, have alluded that they could be inflationary . He wants to have this big fiscal stimulus, wants to spend a lot more money rebuilding airports, roads and rebuilding americas infrastructure, which is seen as americas infrastructure, which is seen as in pretty poor state. That will have an Inflationary Pressure as that flows into the american economy. It is fascinating. We have spoken about this on a number of occasions on our analysis of President Elect from. Was he going to be the president like the campaigning donald trump . Would he change his tone after he won. Would there be a more conservative President Elect. What we have seen from these tweets and the way he is behaving, how he campaigned and how at the moment he seems to be saying how he will be the president , are pretty similar. He is very aggressive about car companies, for example, that are producing cars in mexico. Has been critical of toyota, general motors. He praised ford who said they would move production into america from mexico. In billy macri has been pretty front foot on how he campaigned. He can affect things in real time. Campaigned. He can affect things in realtime. People voted, or the election gave us a different type of president and that is what people seemed to want. Hes doing that. A notion that the president of the United States tweeting policy in real time, which as you say, have these huge effects on very Large Companies share price has come is a new way of operating. Will it continue after his inauguration on January The 20th . We will see, but at the moment campaigning donald trump and President Elect trump is pretty similar. The Chief Economist of the banker links Bank Of England says predicting the future is hard . Yes, michael fish said in 1987 he didnt believe a hurricane was on its way, 2a hours before one of the most devastating hurricane to hit the south east and caused millions of devastation. The Chief Economist of the Bank Of England has said, we also sometimes get it wrong the Bank Forecast that if there was a vote for brexit, which there was a vote for brexit, which there was a vote for brexit, which there was in the uk, that there would be an immediate negative effect on the uk economy. That hasnt appeared in the short term at least, to have happened. Consumers are still spending strongly. And the Bank Of England is saying just like Weather Forecasters, they have to learn the lesson that that prediction was wrong. Economists, they have to use the data better. They have to be aware that economics is a judgment of human behaviour. And that will be difficult. It is a lwa ys and that will be difficult. It is always going to be tricky and imprecise. What they are saying is, we need to be more honest about that. We mentioned about the uks ambassador to the eu, a resignation and an appointment already. What would that do to theresa mays Negotiating Position on brexit . Would that do to theresa mays Negotiating Position on brexit7m is reported now she will make quite a big speech in the next few weeks, laying out britains position to an extent, or at least by Which Britain will approach the members of the European Union when britain sparks article 50, the process to leave the European Union. The british prime minister, she feels like she has to ta ke minister, she feels like she has to take care. If you reveal too much of your hand in a negotiation, you have lost leveraged and power by doing that. She doesnt want to put herself into the position where she has made her position clear and britain is unclear what the rest of the european nations want. She has to play it carefully and we will not see a huge amount of detail on what britain actually wants from that article 50 process. Thank you very much. Have a great weekend. In a moment well take a look through the business pages but first heres a quick reminder of how to get in touch with us. The Business Live page is where you stay ahead of the braking business news. We will keep you up to date with the latest details with insight and analysis from the bbcs team of editors from Around The World. We wa nt to editors from Around The World. We want to hear from you. Editors from Around The World. We want to hearfrom you. Get editors from Around The World. We want to hear from you. Get involved on the bbc Business Live web page. And on twitter. You can find us on facebook. Business live on tv and online, whenever you need to know. What other Business Stories has the media been taking an interest in . Richard dunbar, Investment Director at Aberdeen Asset management is back. Would you have liked to have gone to a Football Boarding School . Would you have liked to have gone to a Football Boarding Schoonm would you have liked to have gone to a Football Boarding School . It seems like a good option in china. 8,000 a year. Some academic stuff probably, but mostly football. 32 Football Pitches around the schools and it looks like a great way to spend your education. They have so many fields. 48 Football Pitches. But they will start churning out probably world class Football Players . China has decided it wants to win the world cup, so it has to throw money at the problem, as it has done in other sports. They are probably going to continue to fuel the Football Cost Boom that we have seenin the Football Cost Boom that we have seen in europe and our players will be attracted to that also. Can i talk about another big business . Do you like sushi . I love sushi. I love japanese food. Tell us about that photo, how much did he pay for that . That was sold yesterday morning for 600,000. So when you chop that big fish up, it will be expensive for each little bit that goes into sushl each little bit that goes into sushi. The man who bought it said it was a little bit expensive he is known as the tuna pr king. Was a little bit expensive he is known as the Tuna Pr Kinglj was a little bit expensive he is known as the tuna pr king. I suspect he is putting bat against his marketing budget. My concern is it is always 26 hours old, when does it stop being fresh gesture marked that is yourfault for stop being fresh gesture marked that is your fault for eating the raw stuff. We cook it. Have you returned any Christmas Gifts . No, didnt get any. This is the biggest day for returns in the us. All the stuff that arrived after christmas, you can now return. Richard, have a great weekend. 0k, got to go. Have a good weekend, we are getting booted off. Goodbye. Good morning. Rain on the menu over the next 26 hours or so. Further east, it is a different story. Snow more likely to be coming out of the sky. Closer to home we have milder aircoming infrom sky. Closer to home we have milder air coming in from the west. Weather fronts are coming in and we have seen some rain to the north and the west this morning. Frosty start across east anglia and the south east. Those were the fronts will extend further east. Its brightness for a time. It will cloud over eventually. Rain further north and west. Some of it heavy and a notable breeze. Some places have temperatures up into double figures. The rain extending into many parts of england and wales. Not a lot across the south west. For the midlands, east anglia and the south east, gradually clouding over. Temperatures slope to rise. As we head into the evening, rain arrived. Mostly drips and wraps. The clearest of the skies will be in highland scotland. But noticeably milder night. A cloudy start to your weekend. Dampness around across southern areas. Towards western coasts, threat of drizzly rain will continue. Elsewhere things will perk up continue. Elsewhere things will perk upa continue. Elsewhere things will perk up a little bit and we are expecting some cloud. Best of the breaks will be across eastern scotland. Not exactly warm here, five or 6 degrees. But further south it will be milder than it has been, up into double figures in southern counties of england in particular. No change on sunday. A fair bit of cloud, but afair bit on sunday. A fair bit of cloud, but a fair bit of dry weather. More cloud across eastern areas but drips and wraps of rain out west. Things liven up next week with the Jet Strea M Liven up next week with the jet stream sending some active fronts across the country. There will be spells of rain for most and rice bowls in between. To sum up next week, turning more unsettled, but hopefully you will see a bit of sunshine also. Hello, its friday, its 9 oclock, im joanna gosling. Welcome to the programme. Special delivery, postal workers are delivering drugs bought on the so called dark web, unaware of what they are handing over and with few checks. A major inquiry is promised into the changing nature of cyber crime. 0ne parcel had drugs in it. One parcel had drugs in it. What was in there . Its not of cannabis. You smell it and then what . You tell the managers and they say, you need to deliver it. If you see the person youre delivering two, tell them to be more careful. Really . The next american President Donald Trump has publicly sided with russia over americas Intelligence Services over claims that russia interfered in the Uselection Process by hacking emails. Today he meets intelligence chiefs to hear their evidence
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