by—election since 2012 and in that sense that we ought not forget about it because it would be bad psychologically for the labour party. we would be bad psychologically for the labour party.- for the labour party. we are waitin: for the labour party. we are waiting for— for the labour party. we are waiting for wakefield - for the labour party. we are waiting for wakefield to - waiting for wakefield to declare and it shall come any moment and we are keeping that on bbc news and world news. mo hussein, i'd like to bring you in here because inevitably, the pressure will mount for boris johnson, who was not even in the country at the moment. how much will this damage his sense of control of what is going on around him?— of control of what is going on around him? the timing of this is not great- — around him? the timing of this is not great. he _ around him? the timing of this is not great. he is _ around him? the timing of this is not great. he is on - around him? the timing of this is not great. he is on the - is not great. he is on the world _ is not great. he is on the world stage attending international conferences and when — international conferences and when he's out of the country, it leaves _ when he's out of the country, it leaves a _ when he's out of the country, it leaves a vacuum for more and perhaps— it leaves a vacuum for more and perhaps plotting between mps it leaves a vacuum for more and perhaps plotting between mp5 or people _ perhaps plotting between mp5 or people venting frustration. and angen — people venting frustration. and anger. clearly, the big opportunity that the conservative mps have had has passed — conservative mps have had has passed when he did we —— win the vote — passed when he did we —— win the vote of— passed when he did we —— win the vote of confidence in him and — the vote of confidence in him and at — the vote of confidence in him and at the moment there is no mechanism to repeat that it least — mechanism to repeat that it least for— mechanism to repeat that it least for a year or so. and that— least for a year or so. and that is— least for a year or so. and that is to _ least for a year or so. and that is to be examined. it will rattle — that is to be examined. it will rattle nerds again once again and you _ rattle nerds again once again and you will hear a lot about midterm _ and you will hear a lot about midterm blues and people wanting change from 12 years of a conservative government —— rattle _ a conservative government —— rattle nerves but this will be cold — rattle nerves but this will be cold comfort to many mps who were _ cold comfort to many mps who were perhaps wavering and engaging in benefit of the doubt _ engaging in benefit of the doubt a few weeks ago it with votes — doubt a few weeks ago it with votes if_ doubt a few weeks ago it with votes. if came after these results. _ votes. if came after these results, if they are indeed losses— results, if they are indeed losses with the conservative party — losses with the conservative party but i think that would be quite — party but i think that would be quite different in terms of confidence in him. i quite different in terms of confidence in him.- quite different in terms of confidence in him. i was going to sa , confidence in him. i was going to say. in _ confidence in him. i was going to say, in terms _ confidence in him. i was going to say, in terms of— confidence in him. i was going to say, in terms of what - confidence in him. i was going to say, in terms of what you i to say, in terms of what you were saying of a motion of no—confidence, do you think that borisjohnson's anna meares are ruing the fact they went early because presumably they went a couple of weeks ago, would be looking at a vote of no confidence on monday? yes, i think they are ruing and some — yes, i think they are ruing and some reflection is going on. i don't — some reflection is going on. i don't think it was as organised and it— don't think it was as organised and it was— don't think it was as organised and it was not the usual spa suspects _ and it was not the usual spa suspects in the case. the fact that— suspects in the case. the fact that different people from different wings, different intakes, different politics within— intakes, different politics within the conservative party were — within the conservative party were getting so persuaded was actually— were getting so persuaded was actually more worrying. because there _ actually more worrying. because there ish't— actually more worrying. because there isn'tjust a simple policy— there isn'tjust a simple policy solutions it is. if you are — policy solutions it is. if you are losing in the near red wall seats— are losing in the near red wall seats vou _ are losing in the near red wall seats you took for labour where you promised more investment as suddenly— you promised more investment as suddenly a — you promised more investment as suddenly a bigger role for the state — suddenly a bigger role for the state if— suddenly a bigger role for the state. if you are losing in more _ state. if you are losing in more traditional southern safe conservative seats with the idea — conservative seats with the idea of— conservative seats with the idea of a _ conservative seats with the idea of a small estate, lower taxes. — idea of a small estate, lower taxes, less intervention, where did go— taxes, less intervention, where did go from there? how do you please — did go from there? how do you please all— did go from there? how do you please all the wings of the party? _ please all the wings of the party? yes, a significant majority— party? yes, a significant majority but also a wider vote for the — majority but also a wider vote for the base for conservatives and holding that together will be challenging going forward. we are — be challenging going forward. we are still waiting for the declaration from wakefield and the picture has changed that much for us but we have been told to expect something in the next few minutes. ayesha, no doubt you are looking forward to, no doubt, what would you put this down to in terms of a winner above all. we have in wakefield, as everyone knows, a disgraced tory mp stepping aside and that was obviously one element and a cost of living crisis, party gate still looms but i've heard from our correspondence from down in tiverton and holland ten that in terms of the campaign that party gate was a stay a long story. what would you put the wind down to? ads, story. what would you put the wind down to?— story. what would you put the wind down to? a combination of all of those _ wind down to? a combination of all of those factors _ wind down to? a combination of all of those factors but - wind down to? a combination of all of those factors but i - all of those factors but i think— all of those factors but i think the _ all of those factors but i think the cost _ all of those factors but i think the cost of- all of those factors but i think the cost of living i all of those factors but i- think the cost of living prices is absolutely— think the cost of living prices is absolutely front _ think the cost of living prices is absolutely front and - think the cost of living prices| is absolutely front and centre of everybodv's _ is absolutely front and centre of everybody's mind. - is absolutely front and centre . of everybody's mind. everybody is feeling — of everybody's mind. everybody is feeling the _ of everybody's mind. everybody is feeling the squeeze - of everybody's mind. everybody is feeling the squeeze and - is feeling the squeeze and feeling _ is feeling the squeeze and feeling frightened - is feeling the squeeze and feeling frightened at - is feeling the squeeze and feeling frightened at the l feeling frightened at the moment— feeling frightened at the moment about - feeling frightened at the moment about what - feeling frightened at the moment about what liesj feeling frightened at the - moment about what lies ahead. somebody— moment about what lies ahead. somebody i_ moment about what lies ahead. somebody i know _ moment about what lies ahead. somebody i know he _ moment about what lies ahead. somebody i know he was - moment about what lies ahead. somebody i know he was downl moment about what lies ahead. i somebody i know he was down in devorr— somebody i know he was down in devon was— somebody i know he was down in devon was saying _ somebody i know he was down in devon was saying the _ somebody i know he was down in devon was saying the cost - somebody i know he was down in devon was saying the cost of - devon was saying the cost of fuel— devon was saying the cost of fuel was _ devon was saying the cost of fuel was a _ devon was saying the cost of fuel was a big _ devon was saying the cost of fuel was a big issue, - devon was saying the cost of fuel was a big issue, the - devon was saying the cost of| fuel was a big issue, the cost of filling _ fuel was a big issue, the cost of filling up— fuel was a big issue, the cost of filling up the _ fuel was a big issue, the cost of filling up the car, - fuel was a big issue, the cost of filling up the car, rural- of filling up the car, rural area, _ of filling up the car, rural area, not— of filling up the car, rural area, not great _ of filling up the car, rural area, not great bus - of filling up the car, rural. area, not great bus services and — area, not great bus services and people _ area, not great bus services and people rely— area, not great bus services and people rely on - area, not great bus services and people rely on their- area, not great bus services. and people rely on their cars. that— and people rely on their cars. that was— and people rely on their cars. that was an _ and people rely on their cars. that was an absolutely - and people rely on their cars. i that was an absolutely evident cost of — that was an absolutely evident cost of living _ that was an absolutely evident cost of living prices _ that was an absolutely evident cost of living prices hitting - cost of living prices hitting there~ _ cost of living prices hitting there i_ cost of living prices hitting there. ithink— cost of living prices hitting there. i think partygate i cost of living prices hitting there. i think partygate is| there. i think partygate is still— there. i think partygate is still in _ there. i think partygate is still in the _ there. i think partygate is still in the back— there. i think partygate is still in the back of- there. i think partygate is still in the back of mind . there. i think partygate is. still in the back of mind for marry— still in the back of mind for many people. _ still in the back of mind for many people, particularly. many people, particularly because _ many people, particularly because of— many people, particularly because of the _ many people, particularly because of the votes - many people, particularly because of the votes of. many people, particularlyl because of the votes of no confidence _ because of the votes of no confidence recently. - because of the votes of no confidence recently. the l because of the votes of no - confidence recently. the other thing — confidence recently. the other thing that— confidence recently. the other thing that is— confidence recently. the other thing that is not— confidence recently. the other thing that is not helped - thing that is not helped wakefield _ thing that is not helped wakefield is _ thing that is not helped wakefield is that - thing that is not helped wakefield is that the i wakefield is that the conservative - wakefield is that the . conservative candidate wakefield is that the - conservative candidate has fallen _ conservative candidate has fallen out _ conservative candidate has fallen out with _ conservative candidate has fallen out with many - fallen out with many conservative - fallen out with many| conservative people. fallen out with many - conservative people. he questioned _ conservative people. he questioned brexit - conservative people. he questioned brexit and l conservative people. he . questioned brexit and had conservative people. he - questioned brexit and had quite an unfortunate _ questioned brexit and had quite an unfortunate reference - questioned brexit and had quite an unfortunate reference to - an unfortunate reference to harold _ an unfortunate reference to harold shipman _ an unfortunate reference to harold shipman in- an unfortunate reference to harold shipman in the - harold shipman in the conservative - harold shipman in the conservative party- harold shipman in the| conservative party and harold shipman in the - conservative party and said look. — conservative party and said look. we _ conservative party and said look, we still— conservative party and said look, we still trust - conservative party and said look, we still trust gps - conservative party and said l look, we still trust gps after harold — look, we still trust gps after harold shipman— look, we still trust gps after harold shipman killed - look, we still trust gps after- harold shipman killed thousands of people. — harold shipman killed thousands of people, equating _ harold shipman killed thousands of people, equating the - harold shipman killed thousands of people, equating the prime i of people, equating the prime minister— of people, equating the prime ministerand _ of people, equating the prime ministerand the _ of people, equating the prime minister and the conservative | minister and the conservative party— minister and the conservative party to — minister and the conservative party to harold _ minister and the conservative party to harold shipman - party to harold shipman probably— party to harold shipman probably did _ party to harold shipman probably did not - party to harold shipman probably did not go - party to harold shipmanl probably did not go down brilliantly, _ probably did not go down brilliantly, if— probably did not go down brilliantly, if local- probably did not go down brilliantly, if local voters | brilliantly, if local voters had _ brilliantly, if local voters had trust _ brilliantly, if local voters had trust issues - brilliantly, if local voters had trust issues with - brilliantly, if local voters had trust issues with the conservative _ had trust issues with the conservative party! - had trust issues with the conservative party! i- had trust issues with the i conservative party! ithink there _ conservative party! ithink there is— conservative party! ithink there is definitely- conservative party! ithink there is definitely a - there is definitely a rebuilding - there is definitely a rebuilding of- there is definitely a| rebuilding of labour there is definitely a i rebuilding of labour in there is definitely a - rebuilding of labour in these red wall— rebuilding of labour in these red wall seats _ rebuilding of labour in these red wall seats and _ rebuilding of labour in these red wall seats and keir - rebuilding of labour in these i red wall seats and keir starmer has done — red wall seats and keir starmer has done a _ red wall seats and keir starmer has done a reasonable - red wall seats and keir starmer has done a reasonable job - red wall seats and keir starmer has done a reasonable job of. has done a reasonable job of detoxifying _ has done a reasonable job of detoxifying people _ has done a reasonable job of detoxifying people in - has done a reasonable job of detoxifying people in the - detoxifying people in the labour— detoxifying people in the labour party _ detoxifying people in the labour party and - detoxifying people in the labour party and those l detoxifying people in the - labour party and those giving the labour— labour party and those giving the labour party— labour party and those giving the labour party a _ labour party and those giving the labour party a second - labour party and those giving . the labour party a second look. but the — the labour party a second look. but the strength _ the labour party a second look. but the strength of— the labour party a second look. but the strength of feeling - but the strength of feeling against _ but the strength of feeling against boris _ but the strength of feeling against borisjohnson - but the strength of feeling against boris johnson and i but the strength of feeling i against boris johnson and the conservative _ against boris johnson and the conservative government - against boris johnson and the . conservative government across many — conservative government across many parts — conservative government across many parts of — conservative government across many parts of the _ conservative government across many parts of the country - conservative government across many parts of the country is - many parts of the country is really — many parts of the country is really powerful _ many parts of the country is really powerful right - many parts of the country is really powerful right now. . really powerful right now. ayesha, _ really powerful right now. ayesha. was _ really powerful right now. ayesha, was looking - really powerful right now. ayesha, was looking at i really powerful right now. i ayesha, was looking at the target said that the next election. target said that the next election-— target said that the next election. ~ .~ , ., , election. wakefield is only number 38 _ election. wakefield is only number 38 so _ election. wakefield is only number 38 so it _ election. wakefield is only number 38 so it is - election. wakefield is only i number 38 so it is absolutely on the lower end of not only what the labour party needs to do in terms of depriving the conservatives of a majority, for which they need a3, but never mind about getting an overall majority themselves, 120, they ought to be storming it, don't they? and we have to see what the swing is but they will be hoping to get as good a swing as possible. you will be hoping to get as good a swing as possible.— swing as possible. you are riaht, swing as possible. you are right. the _ swing as possible. you are right, the labour - swing as possible. you are right, the labour party - swing as possible. you are| right, the labour party has swing as possible. you are i right, the labour party has an incredible _ right, the labour party has an incredible mountain _ right, the labour party has an incredible mountain to - right, the labour party has an incredible mountain to climb. incredible mountain to climb after— incredible mountain to climb after 2019. _ incredible mountain to climb after 2019, the _ incredible mountain to climb after 2019, the shattering i after 2019, the shattering defeat~ _ after 2019, the shattering defeat. keir— after 2019, the shattering defeat. keir starmer, - after 2019, the shattering defeat. keir starmer, is. after 2019, the shattering i defeat. keir starmer, is that it before, _ defeat. keir starmer, is that it before, even _ defeat. keir starmer, is that it before, even if— defeat. keir starmer, is that it before, even if he - defeat. keir starmer, is that it before, even if he gets- defeat. keir starmer, is that it before, even if he gets a l it before, even if he gets a swing _ it before, even if he gets a swing similar— it before, even if he gets a swing similarto_ it before, even if he gets a swing similar to what - it before, even if he gets a swing similar to what tonyj swing similar to what tony blair— swing similar to what tony blair did _ swing similar to what tony blair did in— swing similar to what tony blair did in 97 _ swing similar to what tony blair did in 97 it— swing similar to what tony blair did in 97 it gives - swing similar to what tony blair did in 97 it gives him| swing similar to what tony. blair did in 97 it gives him a working— blair did in 97 it gives him a working majority— blair did in 97 it gives him a working majority of- blair did in 97 it gives him a working majority ofjust - blair did in 97 it gives him al working majority ofjust one, that's— working majority ofjust one, that's how— working majority ofjust one, that's how tough _ working majority ofjust one, that's how tough it _ working majority ofjust one, that's how tough it is. - that's how tough it is. scotland _ that's how tough it is. scotland is _ that's how tough it is. scotland is also - that's how tough it is. scotland is also very. that's how tough it is. - scotland is also very difficult for the — scotland is also very difficult for the labour— scotland is also very difficult for the labour party- scotland is also very difficult for the labour party but - scotland is also very difficult. for the labour party but having said that, _ for the labour party but having said that, look— for the labour party but having said that, look at _ for the labour party but having said that, look at where - for the labour party but having said that, look at where things| said that, look at where things are now. — said that, look at where things are now. the _ said that, look at where things are now, the local— said that, look at where things are now, the local elections. said that, look at where things are now, the local elections in| are now, the local elections in the polls— are now, the local elections in the polls now. _ are now, the local elections in the polls now, and _ are now, the local elections in the polls now, and you - are now, the local elections in the polls now, and you cannot extrapolate _ the polls now, and you cannot extrapolate directly _ the polls now, and you cannot extrapolate directly from - the polls now, and you cannot extrapolate directly from that| extrapolate directly from that but the — extrapolate directly from that but the labour _ extrapolate directly from that but the labour party- extrapolate directly from that but the labour party is - extrapolate directly from that but the labour party is on - but the labour party is on course _ but the labour party is on course to— but the labour party is on course to be _ but the labour party is on course to be the - but the labour party is on course to be the biggest. but the labour party is on - course to be the biggest party. it does — course to be the biggest party. it does look— course to be the biggest party. it does look like _ course to be the biggest party. it does look like we _ course to be the biggest party. it does look like we may- course to be the biggest party. it does look like we may be - it does look like we may be heading _ it does look like we may be heading towards _ it does look like we may be heading towards a - it does look like we may be heading towards a hung - heading towards a hung parliament _ heading towards a hung parliament but - heading towards a hung parliament but only. heading towards a hung j parliament but only one heading towards a hung - parliament but only one person can be — parliament but only one person can be prime _ parliament but only one person can be prime minister- parliament but only one person can be prime minister if- parliament but only one person can be prime minister if it - parliament but only one person can be prime minister if it is i can be prime minister if it is not — can be prime minister if it is not boris _ can be prime minister if it is not borisjohnson, - can be prime minister if it is not borisjohnson, and - can be prime minister if it is not borisjohnson, and thatl not borisjohnson, and that will— not borisjohnson, and that will be _ not borisjohnson, and that will be keir— not borisjohnson, and that will be keir starmer. - not borisjohnson, and that will be keir starmer. it- not boris johnson, and that will be keir starmer.- will be keir starmer. it is clear that _ will be keir starmer. it is clear that they _ will be keir starmer. it is clear that they will - will be keir starmer. it is clear that they will run i will be keir starmer. it is i clear that they will run boris johnson on the next election by the conservatives will run on the conservatives will run on the idea of a 2015 redox campaign of coalition chaos? i remember that very well. of course — remember that very well. of course you _ remember that very well. of course you would! _ remember that very well. of course you would! david - remember that very well. of- course you would! david cameron did that _ course you would! david cameron did that tweet _ course you would! david cameron did that tweet about _ did that tweet about inescapable - did that tweet about inescapable chaos. i did that tweet about i inescapable chaos. the did that tweet about - inescapable chaos. the only thing — inescapable chaos. the only thing is, _ inescapable chaos. the only thing is, i_ inescapable chaos. the only thing is, ithink— inescapable chaos. the only thing is, i think it's - inescapable chaos. the only thing is, i think it's a - thing is, i think it's a difficult _ thing is, i think it's a difficult line - thing is, i think it's a difficult line to - thing is, i think it's a difficult line to the l difficult line to the conservatives - difficult line to the conservatives to l difficult line to the i conservatives to push difficult line to the - conservatives to push the difficult line to the _ conservatives to push the line about — conservatives to push the line about chaos _ conservatives to push the line about chaos when _ conservatives to push the line about chaos when we - conservatives to push the line about chaos when we have - conservatives to push the linel about chaos when we have had nothing — about chaos when we have had nothing but _ about chaos when we have had nothing but a _ about chaos when we have had nothing but a fiesta _ about chaos when we have had nothing but a fiesta of - about chaos when we have had nothing but a fiesta of chaos . nothing but a fiesta of chaos and carnage _ nothing but a fiesta of chaos and carnage now— nothing but a fiesta of chaos and carnage now for- nothing but a fiesta of chaos and carnage now for quite . nothing but a fiesta of chaos - and carnage now for quite some time! _ and carnage now for quite some time! the — and carnage now for quite some time! the other— and carnage now for quite some time! the other thing _ and carnage now for quite some time! the otherthing i- and carnage now for quite some time! the other thing i think- time! the other thing i think is interesting, _ time! the other thing i think is interesting, boris - time! the other thing i think is interesting, borisjohnson was — is interesting, borisjohnson was very— is interesting, borisjohnson was very much _ is interesting, borisjohnson was very much presented i is interesting, borisjohnson was very much presented asj is interesting, borisjohnson i was very much presented as a new— was very much presented as a new type _ was very much presented as a new type of— was very much presented as a new type of conservative - new type of conservative leader. _ new type of conservative leader, freshening - new type of conservative leader, freshening up . leader, freshening up conservative - leader, freshening up conservative party. . leader, freshening up. conservative party. his leader, freshening up - conservative party. his only be prime — conservative party. his only be prime minister— conservative party. his only be prime minister for— conservative party. his only be prime minister for less- conservative party. his only be prime minister for less than i prime minister for less than 2.5 prime minister for less than 25 years— prime minister for less than 2.5 years and _ prime minister for less than 2.5 years and yet _ prime minister for less than 2.5 years and yet we - prime minister for less than 2.5 years and yet we are - prime minister for less than - 2.5 years and yet we are seeing these _ 2.5 years and yet we are seeing these big — 2.5 years and yet we are seeing these big cracks. _ 2.5 years and yet we are seeing these big cracks. all— 2.5 years and yet we are seeing these big cracks. all this- 2.5 years and yet we are seeing these big cracks. all this talk. these big cracks. all this talk about— these big cracks. all this talk about midterms_ these big cracks. all this talk about midterms and - these big cracks. all this talk about midterms and a - these big cracks. all this talk about midterms and a tired i about midterms and a tired conservative _ about midterms and a tired conservative government, i about midterms and a tired - conservative government, they were _ conservative government, they were meant— conservative government, they were meant to _ conservative government, they were meant to freshen - conservative government, they were meant to freshen things l conservative government, they. were meant to freshen things up with boris— were meant to freshen things up with borisjohnson. _ were meant to freshen things up with borisjohnson. it _ were meant to freshen things up with borisjohnson. it is - with borisjohnson. it is extraordinary— with borisjohnson. it is extraordinary that- with borisjohnson. it is extraordinary that in - with borisjohnson. it isl extraordinary that injust with borisjohnson. it is - extraordinary that in just two years— extraordinary that in just two years of— extraordinary that in just two years of this _ extraordinary that in just two years of this big, _ extraordinary that in just two years of this big, big - extraordinary that in just two | years of this big, big majority we are — years of this big, big majority we are seeing— years of this big, big majority we are seeing all— years of this big, big majority we are seeing all of— years of this big, big majority we are seeing all of these - we are seeing all of these problems— we are seeing all of these problems but— we are seeing all of these problems but i— we are seeing all of these problems but i do- we are seeing all of these problems but i do not- we are seeing all of these. problems but i do not deny we are seeing all of these - problems but i do not deny the labour— problems but i do not deny the labour party— problems but i do not deny the labour party have _ problems but i do not deny the labour party have a _ problems but i do not deny the labour party have a lot - problems but i do not deny the labour party have a lot of- problems but i do not deny the labour party have a lot of work to do _ labour party have a lot of work to do and — labour party have a lot of work to do and if— labour party have a lot of work to do and if you _ labour party have a lot of work to do and if you look _ labour party have a lot of work to do and if you look where - to do and if you look where they— to do and if you look where they were _ to do and if you look where they were post—2019 - to do and if you look where they were post—2019 aware to do and if you look where - they were post—2019 aware they are now. — they were post—2019 aware they are now. they— they were post—2019 aware they are now, they have _ they were post—2019 aware they are now, they have definitely. are now, they have definitely made — are now, they have definitely made significant _ are now, they have definitely made significant electoral- made significant electoral improvements. _ made significant electoral improvements.— made significant electoral improvements. just to pick up on our improvements. just to pick up on your comments _ improvements. just to pick up on your comments there, - on your comments there, nonetheless, it is midterm and governments don't do terribly well and by—elections as a rule at this stage in their tenure. what do you think that says about the chances for lib dems andindeed about the chances for lib dems and indeed labour, he seemed to work well together and carving out these two seats if indeed, let's wait for the results, but that seems to be where it's going. what does it save the next couple of years because one thing we do know is boris johnson is not a quitter, he not going away?— johnson is not a quitter, he not going away? no, he won't be auoin not going away? no, he won't be going away _ not going away? no, he won't be going away and _ not going away? no, he won't be going away and as _ not going away? no, he won't be going away and as far— not going away? no, he won't be going away and as far as - not going away? no, he won't be going away and as far as the - going away and as far as the lib dems _ going away and as far as the lib dems are concerned, they hope — lib dems are concerned, they hope you _ lib dems are concerned, they hope you won't go away because what _ hope you won't go away because what they— hope you won't go away because what they are finding on the doorstep is borisjohnson is someone who helps them reach the soft— someone who helps them reach the soft conservative voters. i don't — the soft conservative voters. i don't think he's going away. i don't — don't think he's going away. i don't think he's going away. i don't think this idea that the labour— don't think this idea that the labour and don't think this idea that the labourand lib dems don't think this idea that the labour and lib dems don't officially co—operate, that is going — officially co—operate, that is going to _ officially co—operate, that is going to be an ongoing theme and the — going to be an ongoing theme and the truth is that becomes a little _ and the truth is that becomes a little bit — and the truth is that becomes a little bit harder at the general election when you are fighting — general election when you are fighting a national election, some — fighting a national election, some of— fighting a national election, some of these focused by—election campaign, is harder to pull— by—election campaign, is harder to pull that off at a national level — to pull that off at a national level. the more by—election results _ level. the more by—election results you get like this, the more — results you get like this, the more we _ results you get like this, the more we are going to see conversations about how would labour — conversations about how would labour and conversations about how would labourand lib conversations about how would labour and lib dems s&p work together, — labour and lib dems s&p work together, or conservatives saying _ together, or conservatives saying will this be coalition chaos, _ saying will this be coalition chaos, bringing back 2015 and so on — chaos, bringing back 2015 and so on and _ chaos, bringing back 2015 and so on and so forth. these are the _ so on and so forth. these are the ongoing themes until the next — the ongoing themes until the next general election. and as the weeks — next general election. and as the weeks and _ next general election. and as the weeks and months - next general election. and as the weeks and months teak. next general election. and as l the weeks and months teak on, mo, there is a truth here, that there will be many tory mps who are saying they are close to doomed already. so although technically there cannot be another challenge to boris johnson for a year, that can also change pretty quickly counted?— also change pretty quickly counted? , , counted? they can, they can chance counted? they can, they can change the _ counted? they can, they can change the rules _ counted? they can, they can change the rules but - counted? they can, they can change the rules but even i counted? they can, they can change the rules but even if| change the rules but even if they don't, governing when you lose authority and support of your bank benches, even if you have an 80 seat majority, can be very difficult. we have seen other prime ministers like theresa may winning a vote of no confidence and leaving a few months after because she could not get her programme for government through. you only need a0 mps to rebel or abstain or not turn up on a vote and thenit or not turn up on a vote and then it becomes difficult for a prime minister to do anything. all these calculations, will i win my seat again, the way things are going, will be praying iron mps's mines and it goes back to the transactional relationship that many conservative mps have with the prime minister where they probably hold their nose at times in times of things he does and says because they saw him as an electoral asset, winning parts of the country back conservatives have never won in and that seems to be changing. if that continues to change, many mps, whether marginal or safe seat, will be worried about whether they will still be an mp at the next election. still be an mp at the next election-— still be an mp at the next election. , _,, ., election. lewis, the cost of livin: election. lewis, the cost of living crisis _ election. lewis, the cost of living crisis as _ election. lewis, the cost of living crisis as it _ election. lewis, the cost of living crisis as it is - election. lewis, the cost of living crisis as it is not - living crisis as it is not something that any government can resolve on its own, any country around the world. it is a global problem. where does this leave borisjohnson and the tories if indeed cost of living rises to the top of the pile when it comes to decisions like this? yeah, and if! pile when it comes to decisions like this? yeah, and if i were sitting there at the conservative office or downing street, beyond party gate, the thing that would worry and scare me the most is around economy. scare me the most is around economy-— scare me the most is around econom . , ., ., economy. the fact is the damage from partygate — economy. the fact is the damage from partygate is _ economy. the fact is the damage from partygate is all— economy. the fact is the damage from partygate is all linked - economy. the fact is the damage from partygate is all linked to i from partygate is all linked to borisjohnson, already incurred and because whatever political toll, it will reap. the economic story has onlyjust begun. inflation is at 9%, setting to get to 11%, perhaps i am. we know fuel prices, is affecting everybody, the industrial in this week. —— unrest this week. there has been much talk about so—called wedge issues, cultural issues, the rwanda story and so on, everything pales into insignificance. one of the biggest cliches is that it's about the economy stupid, but it's clear that that is where the talk will be and there is some talk particularly within the pollard legal commentary about an early election being called by borisjohnson to establish his authority. i don't want to establish his authority. i don't mistake my reputation on it but i think it will be fair to say that will not happen. i will be fair to say that will not happen-— will be fair to say that will not happen. i think we have some arrivals _ not happen. i think we have some arrivals from - not happen. i think we have some arrivals from tiverton| not happen. i think we have i some arrivals from tiverton and honiton of the tories, who will be arriving, feeling probably fairly sick in the stomach, given if they have been paying much attention to the tweets that have been going out, that have been delivering a confident message about the fact that the lib dems have taken the seat already. shawn, what would you expect, obviously the mood among the lib dems to have taken the seat is something, isn't it? will they be surprised, do you think? because there was a lot of talk in the build—up are getting close, a very good second would be a very good result. but if they have taken it, will they have surprised themselves? it would be an amazing, amazing result~ _ it would be an amazing, amazing result i— it would be an amazing, amazing result. i think— it would be an amazing, amazing result. i think it _ it would be an amazing, amazing result. i think it is _ it would be an amazing, amazing result. i think it is only— it would be an amazing, amazing result. i think it is only 40 - result. i think it is only 40 seats— result. i think it is only 40 seats in— result. i think it is only 40 seats in the _ result. i think it is only 40 seats in the country- result. i think it is only aoj seats in the country where result. i think it is only 40 - seats in the country where the conservatives _ seats in the country where the conservatives have _ seats in the country where the conservatives have a - seats in the country where the conservatives have a better. conservatives have a better majority _ conservatives have a better majority is _ conservatives have a better majority is that _ conservatives have a better majority is that it _ conservatives have a better majority is that it would - conservatives have a better majority is that it would be | conservatives have a better. majority is that it would be an extraordinary— majority is that it would be an extraordinary result— majority is that it would be an extraordinary result but - majority is that it would be an extraordinary result but that i extraordinary result but that said. — extraordinary result but that said. the _ extraordinary result but that said, the lib— extraordinary result but that said, the lib dems- extraordinary result but that said, the lib dems have - extraordinary result but that said, the lib dems have had extraordinary result but that i said, the lib dems have had a couple — said, the lib dems have had a couple of— said, the lib dems have had a couple of by—elections - said, the lib dems have had ai couple of by—elections recently where — couple of by—elections recently where they— couple of by—elections recently where they have _ couple of by—elections recently where they have achieved - couple of by—elections recently where they have achieved a i where they have achieved a massive _ where they have achieved a massive 20% _ where they have achieved a massive 20% plus - where they have achieved a massive 20% plus swing i where they have achieved a i massive 20% plus swing which where they have achieved a - massive 20% plus swing which is what _ massive 20% plus swing which is what is _ massive 20% plus swing which is what is needed _ massive 20% plus swing which is what is needed here _ massive 20% plus swing which is what is needed here and - massive 20% plus swing which is what is needed here and they. what is needed here and they have, — what is needed here and they have, there _ what is needed here and they have, there is _ what is needed here and they have, there is nothing - what is needed here and they have, there is nothing that. have, there is nothing that makes _ have, there is nothing that makes the _ have, there is nothing that makes the lib _ have, there is nothing that makes the lib dems - have, there is nothing that. makes the lib dems happier have, there is nothing that- makes the lib dems happier than going _ makes the lib dems happier than going and — makes the lib dems happier than going and finding _ makes the lib dems happier than going and finding a _ makes the lib dems happier than going and finding a by—election . going and finding a by—election and the — going and finding a by—election and the entire _ going and finding a by—election and the entire party— going and finding a by—election and the entire party will- and the entire party will decamp— and the entire party will decamp to _ and the entire party will decamp to whatever- and the entire party will decamp to whatever it i and the entire party will| decamp to whatever it is and the entire party will- decamp to whatever it is taking place _ decamp to whatever it is taking place and — decamp to whatever it is taking place and fight _ decamp to whatever it is taking place and fight hard _ decamp to whatever it is taking place and fight hard for- decamp to whatever it is taking place and fight hard for it. - decamp to whatever it is taking place and fight hard for it. i - place and fight hard for it. i think— place and fight hard for it. i think the _ place and fight hard for it. i think the moment - place and fight hard for it. i think the moment this - place and fight hard for it. i think the moment this was| think the moment this was called. _ think the moment this was catted. they— think the moment this was called, they thought - think the moment this was called, they thought they. think the moment this was i called, they thought they had an outside _ called, they thought they had an outside chance _ called, they thought they had an outside chance and - called, they thought they had an outside chance and an- an outside chance and an outside _ an outside chance and an outside second _ an outside chance and an outside second would - an outside chance and an. outside second would have an outside chance and an- outside second would have been a good _ outside second would have been a good resutt— outside second would have been a good result but— outside second would have been a good result but as _ outside second would have been a good result but as far- outside second would have been a good result but as far as - outside second would have been a good result but as far as i - a good result but as far as i was — a good result but as far as i was aware _ a good result but as far as i was aware from _ a good result but as far as i was aware from the - a good result but as far as ii was aware from the moment a good result but as far as i - was aware from the moment this was aware from the moment this was called. — was aware from the moment this was called, they— was aware from the moment this was called, they thought - was aware from the moment this was called, they thought they- was called, they thought they had a — was called, they thought they had a realty— was called, they thought they had a really good _ was called, they thought they had a really good shot - was called, they thought they had a really good shot at - had a really good shot at taking _ had a really good shot at taking it _ had a really good shot at taking it. i'm _ had a really good shot at taking it. i'm not- had a really good shot at taking it. i'm not sure, l had a really good shot at taking it. i'm not sure, i| taking it. i'm not sure, i mean. _ taking it. i'm not sure, i mean. if— taking it. i'm not sure, i mean, if they— taking it. i'm not sure, i mean, if they take- taking it. i'm not sure, i mean, if they take it- taking it. i'm not sure, i mean, if they take it by| taking it. i'm not sure, ii mean, if they take it bya mean, if they take it by a decent _ mean, if they take it bya decent margin, _ mean, if they take it by a decent margin, that - mean, if they take it by a decent margin, that may| mean, if they take it by a . decent margin, that may be beyond _ decent margin, that may be beyond their— decent margin, that may be beyond their wildest - decent margin, that may be| beyond their wildest dreams decent margin, that may be - beyond their wildest dreams but ithink— beyond their wildest dreams but i think they— beyond their wildest dreams but i think they always _ beyond their wildest dreams but i think they always thought - i think they always thought they— i think they always thought they were _ i think they always thought they were in _ i think they always thought they were in with _ i think they always thought they were in with a - i think they always thought they were in with a good i they were in with a good fighting _ they were in with a good fighting chance - they were in with a good fighting chance and - they were in with a good fighting chance and theyi they were in with a good - fighting chance and they were neck— fighting chance and they were neck and _ fighting chance and they were neck and neck _ fighting chance and they were neck and neck and _ fighting chance and they were neck and neck and too - fighting chance and they were neck and neck and too close l fighting chance and they were l neck and neck and too close to call and — neck and neck and too close to call and it _ neck and neck and too close to call and it looked _ neck and neck and too close to call and it looked tough - neck and neck and too close to call and it looked tough and i neck and neck and too close to| call and it looked tough and we are in— call and it looked tough and we are in second _ call and it looked tough and we are in second place _ call and it looked tough and we are in second place but - are in second place but suddenly— are in second place but suddenly win _ are in second place but suddenly win by - are in second place but suddenly win by a - are in second place but suddenly win by a few. are in second place but - suddenly win by a few thousand, that was— suddenly win by a few thousand, that was in— suddenly win by a few thousand, that was in the _ suddenly win by a few thousand, that was in the last _ that was in the last by—election - that was in the last by—election the - that was in the last| by—election the last that was in the last - by—election the last year, certainty~ _ by-election the last year, certainly-— certainly. the last three conservative _ certainly. the last three conservative lib - certainly. the last three conservative lib dem i certainly. the last three - conservative lib dem pointed by—election over the last year, they have all been extraordinary, 20% plus in north shropshire, 30% plus swing, but those three seats all in the south or midlands, you know, tend to be more rural, quite affluent places, tuition and ambition as well. chesham and amersham by present to the other two are all different so what do you think unites them, what is going on and in particular do you think there is much chance that the party will be able to hold on to them, general election? thea;r to them, general election? they all are quite _ to them, general election? they all are quite different _ to them, general election? they all are quite different not - all are quite different not sort _ all are quite different not sort of— all are quite different not sort of what _ all are quite different not sort of what you - all are quite different not sort of what you would i all are quite different not. sort of what you would say a lot sort of what you would say a tot of— sort of what you would say a lot of the stereotypical - lot of the stereotypical conservative _ lot of the stereotypical conservative seats - lot of the stereotypical conservative seats the| lot of the stereotypical. conservative seats the lib lot of the stereotypical - conservative seats the lib dems will target, _ conservative seats the lib dems will target, these _ conservative seats the lib dems will target, these are _ conservative seats the lib dems will target, these are probably. will target, these are probably not amongst _ will target, these are probably not amongst those, _ will target, these are probably not amongst those, you - will target, these are probably not amongst those, you were i will target, these are probably. not amongst those, you were not so among _ not amongst those, you were not so among the — not amongst those, you were not so among the top _ not amongst those, you were not so among the top for— not amongst those, you were not so among the top for winning - so among the top for winning the by—elections. _ so among the top for winning the by—elections. what - so among the top for winning| the by—elections. what unites them — the by—elections. what unites them is — the by—elections. what unites them is frankly— the by—elections. what unites them is frankly they - the by—elections. what unites them is frankly they have - the by—elections. what unites them is frankly they have a i the by—elections. what unites| them is frankly they have a lot of conservative _ them is frankly they have a lot of conservative voters - them is frankly they have a lot of conservative voters who - them is frankly they have a loti of conservative voters who are a bit _ of conservative voters who are a bit tletter— of conservative voters who are a bit better with _ of conservative voters who are a bit better with boris - a bit better with boris johnson, _ a bit better with boris johnson, partygate i a bit better with borisi johnson, partygate as a bit better with boris - johnson, partygate as you say has done — johnson, partygate as you say has done a — johnson, partygate as you say has done a lot— johnson, partygate as you say has done a lot of— johnson, partygate as you say has done a lot of damage - johnson, partygate as you say has done a lot of damage to l johnson, partygate as you say. has done a lot of damage to his reputation _ has done a lot of damage to his reputation and _ has done a lot of damage to his reputation and things _ has done a lot of damage to his reputation and things like - has done a lot of damage to his reputation and things like the l reputation and things like the cost — reputation and things like the cost of— reputation and things like the cost of living _ reputation and things like the cost of living and _ reputation and things like the cost of living and economy i reputation and things like the. cost of living and economy and someone — cost of living and economy and someone so _ cost of living and economy and someone so i _ cost of living and economy and someone so i think— cost of living and economy and someone so i think the - cost of living and economy and | someone so i think the general sense — someone so i think the general sense of— someone so i think the general sense of frustration _ someone so i think the general sense of frustration in - someone so i think the general sense of frustration in the - sense of frustration in the party— sense of frustration in the party plus— sense of frustration in the party plus i— sense of frustration in the party plus i think- sense of frustration in the party plus i think ed - sense of frustration in the| party plus i think ed davey sense of frustration in the - party plus i think ed davey has done _ party plus i think ed davey has done a — party plus i think ed davey has done a good _ party plus i think ed davey has done a good job— party plus i think ed davey has done a good job of— party plus i think ed davey has done a good job of dealing - party plus i think ed davey has| done a good job of dealing with the legacy— done a good job of dealing with the legacy of— done a good job of dealing with the legacy of coalition - done a good job of dealing with the legacy of coalition and - the legacy of coalition and some _ the legacy of coalition and some of— the legacy of coalition and some of the _ the legacy of coalition and some of the tough - the legacy of coalition and some of the tough times i the legacy of coalition and i some of the tough times of the legacy of coalition and - some of the tough times of the lib dems — some of the tough times of the lib dems have _ some of the tough times of the lib dems have had _ some of the tough times of the lib dems have had recently- some of the tough times of the | lib dems have had recently and put spring — lib dems have had recently and put spring track— lib dems have had recently and put spring back in _ lib dems have had recently and put spring back in the _ lib dems have had recently and put spring back in the party's i put spring back in the party's step— put spring back in the party's step trut— put spring back in the party's step but in— put spring back in the party's step but in terms— put spring back in the party's step but in terms of- put spring back in the party's step but in terms of holdingi put spring back in the party's l step but in terms of holding on to generat— step but in terms of holding on to general election, _ step but in terms of holding on to general election, that- step but in terms of holding on to general election, that is- to general election, that is obviously— to general election, that is obviously tougher- to general election, that is obviously tougher because i to general election, that is- obviously tougher because you cannot — obviously tougher because you cannot send _ obviously tougher because you cannot send your _ obviously tougher because you cannot send your entire, - obviously tougher because you cannot send your entire, like l cannot send your entire, like every— cannot send your entire, like every campaign _ cannot send your entire, like every campaign you - cannot send your entire, like every campaign you have - cannot send your entire, likei every campaign you have got cannot send your entire, like i every campaign you have got to one seat — every campaign you have got to one seat to _ every campaign you have got to one seat to four— every campaign you have got to one seat to four weeks - every campaign you have got to one seat to four weeks during l every campaign you have got to one seat to four weeks during a generat— one seat to four weeks during a general election— one seat to four weeks during a general election but— one seat to four weeks during a general election but what - one seat to four weeks during a general election but what it - general election but what it would — general election but what it would say— general election but what it would say is _ general election but what it would say is the _ general election but what it would say is the party - general election but what it would say is the party can l would say is the party can prove _ would say is the party can prove incredibly _ would say is the party can prove incredibly resilient, i prove incredibly resilient, once _ prove incredibly resilient, once they— prove incredibly resilient, once they get _ prove incredibly resilient, once they get in - prove incredibly resilient, once they get in on - prove incredibly resilient, once they get in on a - prove incredibly resilient, | once they get in on a seat prove incredibly resilient, - once they get in on a seat and once _ once they get in on a seat and once they— once they get in on a seat and once they get _ once they get in on a seat and once they get into _ once they get in on a seat and once they get into council- once they get into council wards. _ once they get into council wards. they— once they get into council wards, they are _ once they get into council wards, they are good - once they get into council wards, they are good at. once they get into council- wards, they are good at being good — wards, they are good at being good mps. _ wards, they are good at being good mps, local— wards, they are good at being| good mps, local campaigners, you know. _ good mps, local campaigners, you know. the _ good mps, local campaigners, you know, the new— good mps, local campaigners, you know, the new mps- good mps, local campaigners, you know, the new mps will. good mps, local campaigners, | you know, the new mps will be doing _ you know, the new mps will be doing every— you know, the new mps will be doing every trit— you know, the new mps will be doing every bit of— you know, the new mps will be doing every bit of local- doing every bit of local constituency _ doing every bit of local constituency work - doing every bit of local constituency work they doing every bit of local- constituency work they can possibly _ constituency work they can possibly imagine _ constituency work they can possibly imagine and - constituency work they can possibly imagine and you l constituency work they can i possibly imagine and you see constituency work they can - possibly imagine and you see it from _ possibly imagine and you see it from the — possibly imagine and you see it from the south—west _ possibly imagine and you see it from the south—west that - possibly imagine and you see it from the south—west that once | from the south—west that once they— from the south—west that once they get— from the south—west that once they get into _ from the south—west that once they get into some _ from the south—west that once they get into some of- from the south—west that once they get into some of the - from the south—west that once | they get into some of the seats they get into some of the seats they can — they get into some of the seats they can be _ they get into some of the seats they can be hard _ they get into some of the seats they can be hard to— they get into some of the seats they can be hard to dislodge, . they can be hard to dislodge, it witt— they can be hard to dislodge, it will befall _ they can be hard to dislodge, it will befall out _ they can be hard to dislodge, it will befall out of _ they can be hard to dislodge, it will befall out of the - it will befall out of the coalition _ it will befall out of the coalition last - it will befall out of the coalition last time - it will befall out of the coalition last time for| it will befall out of the - coalition last time for that to i coalition last time for that to i remember— coalition last time for that to i remember covering - coalition last time for that to i remember covering the - coalition last time for that to - i remember covering the bregman british— i remember covering the bregman british by—election, _ i remember covering the bregman british by—election, a _ i remember covering the bregman british by—election, a swing - british by—election, a swing then— british by—election, a swing then of— british by—election, a swing then of 12%_ british by—election, a swing then of 12% then _ british by—election, a swing then of 12% then i - british by—election, a swing then of 12% then i think- british by—election, a swing then of 12% then i think and british by—election, a swing. then of 12% then i think and of course — then of12% then i think and of course conservatives- then of12% then i think and of course conservatives took- then of 12% then i think and of course conservatives took it . course conservatives took it back— course conservatives took it back at _ course conservatives took it back at the _ course conservatives took it back at the insuring - course conservatives took it back at the insuring generali back at the insuring general elections _ back at the insuring general elections what _ back at the insuring general elections what is _ back at the insuring general elections what is different l back at the insuring general i elections what is different now do you — elections what is different now do you think— elections what is different now do you think potentially - do you think potentially different— do you think potentially different by— do you think potentially different by to - do you think potentially different by to them? l do you think potentially different by to them? i | do you think potentially - different by to them? i think what — different by to them? i think what is — different by to them? i think what is different _ different by to them? i think what is different is— different by to them? i think what is different is partly- what is different is partly like _ what is different is partly like i_ what is different is partly like i said _ what is different is partly like i said i— what is different is partly like i said i think- what is different is partly like i said i think there i what is different is partly like i said i think there isi like i said i think there is sort _ like i said i think there is sort of— like i said i think there is sort of a _ like i said i think there is sort of a confidence - like i said i think there is sort of a confidence with| like i said i think there is- sort of a confidence with the lib dems, _ sort of a confidence with the lib dems, i— sort of a confidence with the lib dems, i think— sort of a confidence with the lib dems, i think there - sort of a confidence with the lib dems, i think there is i sort of a confidence with the i lib dems, i think there is more of a _ lib dems, i think there is more of a sense _ lib dems, i think there is more of a sense that _ lib dems, i think there is more of a sense that labour- lib dems, i think there is more of a sense that labour voters . of a sense that labour voters are, — of a sense that labour voters are, we — of a sense that labour voters are, we talk— of a sense that labour voters are, we talk about _ of a sense that labour voters . are, we talk about conservative voters — are, we talk about conservative voters but — are, we talk about conservative voters but i _ are, we talk about conservative voters but i think— are, we talk about conservative voters but i think there - are, we talk about conservative voters but i think there is - voters but i think there is also _ voters but i think there is also more _ voters but i think there is also more of— voters but i think there is also more of a _ voters but i think there is also more of a sense - voters but i think there is also more of a sense of. voters but i think there is - also more of a sense of labour voters — also more of a sense of labour voters treing _ also more of a sense of labour voters being prepared - also more of a sense of labour voters being prepared to- also more of a sense of labour voters being prepared to say. also more of a sense of labouri voters being prepared to say do you know — voters being prepared to say do you know what? _ voters being prepared to say do you know what? i— voters being prepared to say do you know what? i am _ voters being prepared to say do you know what? i am happy- voters being prepared to say do you know what? i am happy to| you know what? i am happy to vote _ you know what? i am happy to vote lib — you know what? i am happy to vote lib dem _ you know what? i am happy to vote lib dem this— you know what? i am happy to vote lib dem this time - you know what? i am happy to vote lib dem this time which. you know what? i am happy to vote lib dem this time which i| vote lib dem this time which i think— vote lib dem this time which i think maybe _ vote lib dem this time which i think maybe we _ vote lib dem this time which i think maybe we were - vote lib dem this time which i think maybe we were able - vote lib dem this time which i think maybe we were able to. think maybe we were able to manage _ think maybe we were able to manage to _ think maybe we were able to manage to do _ think maybe we were able to manage to do during - manage to do during by—elections, - manage to do during by—elections, the . manage to do during - by—elections, the general election— by—elections, the general election labour— by—elections, the general election labour votes- by—elections, the general- election labour votes probably went— election labour votes probably went track— election labour votes probably went back home _ election labour votes probably went back home if— election labour votes probably went back home if you - election labour votes probably went back home if you like. i election labour votes probably. went back home if you like. find went back home if you like. and vice-verse _ went back home if you like. vice—versa potentially, from the lib dems to labour. vice-versa potentially, from the lib dems to labour. yet, i think peeple _ the lib dems to labour. yet, i think people just _ the lib dems to labour. yet, i think people just sort - the lib dems to labour. yet, i think people just sort of- the lib dems to labour. yet, i| think people just sort of maybe this time — think people just sort of maybe this time i_ think people just sort of maybe this time i think _ think people just sort of maybe this time i think there - think people just sort of maybe this time i think there are - this time i think there are voters _ this time i think there are voters who— this time i think there are voters who are _ this time i think there are voters who are going - this time i think there are voters who are going to l this time i think there are i voters who are going to say this time i think there are - voters who are going to say no, iwitt— voters who are going to say no, iwitt stick— voters who are going to say no, i will stick with _ voters who are going to say no, i will stick with the _ voters who are going to say no, i will stick with the lib - voters who are going to say no, i will stick with the lib dems, . i will stick with the lib dems, i will stick with the lib dems, i am — i will stick with the lib dems, i am happy— i will stick with the lib dems, i am happy to— i will stick with the lib dems, i am happy to vote _ i will stick with the lib dems, i am happy to vote for- i will stick with the lib dems, i am happy to vote for them i i will stick with the lib dems,| i am happy to vote for them in a generat— i am happy to vote for them in a general election— i am happy to vote for them in a general election as - i am happy to vote for them in a general election as well - i am happy to vote for them in a general election as well and | a general election as well and ithink— a general election as well and i think that's _ a general election as well and i think that's what _ a general election as well and i think that's what the - a general election as well and i think that's what the party . i think that's what the party will pin— i think that's what the party will pin a _ i think that's what the party will pin a lot _ i think that's what the party will pin a lot of— i think that's what the party will pin a lot of faith - i think that's what the party will pin a lot of faith on - i think that's what the party will pin a lot of faith on and| will pin a lot of faith on and ithink— will pin a lot of faith on and i think there _ will pin a lot of faith on and i think there is _ will pin a lot of faith on and i think there is a _ will pin a lot of faith on and i think there is a good - will pin a lot of faith on and l i think there is a good chance it witt— i think there is a good chance it will happen _ i think there is a good chance it will happen but _ i think there is a good chance it will happen but holding - i think there is a good chancel it will happen but holding onto seats — it will happen but holding onto seats are _ it will happen but holding onto seats are by—election - it will happen but holding onto seats are by—election in - seats are by—election in generat— seats are by—election in general elections - seats are by—election in general elections is - seats are by—election in . general elections is tough seats are by—election in - general elections is tough and it witt— general elections is tough and it will he — general elections is tough and it will be tough _ general elections is tough and it will be tough but _ general elections is tough and it will be tough but they - general elections is tough and it will be tough but they will . it will be tough but they will fight — it will be tough but they will fight hard _ it will be tough but they will fight hard to— it will be tough but they will fight hard to do— it will be tough but they will fight hard to do it. - it will be tough but they will fight hard to do it.— fight hard to do it. ayesha, shawn said _ fight hard to do it. ayesha, shawn said earlier - fight hard to do it. ayesha, shawn said earlier the - fight hard to do it. ayesha, shawn said earlier the one| shawn said earlier the one thing that lib dems would want is for borisjohnson to remain in post, thank you very much, good time to have him there. i would assume that you would have —— probably feel the same, icu, the labour party. but you build the momentum of the back of a one—off —— i say you. of the weeks and months and years ahead? i the weeks and months and years ahead? ~' .,' . ., ahead? i think the official line from _ ahead? i think the official line from the _ ahead? i think the official line from the labour- ahead? i think the official| line from the labour party ahead? i think the official. line from the labour party is boris — line from the labour party is borisjohnson is a line from the labour party is boris johnson is a thoroughly bad thing for the country and it would _ bad thing for the country and it would be better if he went but the _ it would be better if he went but the big winner out of that no—confidence all that confidence vote was of course the opposition parties because boris _ the opposition parties because borisjohnson is as the opposition parties because boris johnson is as a wounded tleast— boris johnson is as a wounded beast now, a sizeable proportion of his own parliamentary party have not -ot parliamentary party have not got confidence in him and every time _ got confidence in him and every time the — got confidence in him and every time the electorate is going to the ballot box in these by—elections, they are thought of it trut— by—elections, they are thought of it but all right, the labour party— of it but all right, the labour party and _ of it but all right, the labour party and indeed, the lib dems and other— party and indeed, the lib dems and other parties cannotjust rest — and other parties cannotjust rest on — and other parties cannotjust rest on their laurels and say took— rest on their laurels and say took at _ rest on their laurels and say look at borisjohnson rest on their laurels and say look at boris johnson and the conservative party, they are doing — conservative party, they are doing terrible things. the labour— doing terrible things. the labour party is a very, very pressing _ labour party is a very, very pressing task and that is now to re- — pressing task and that is now to re— show the country what does — to re— show the country what does written look like under keir— does written look like under keir starmer? it is his vision for britain? there has been a lot for britain? there has been a tot of— for britain? there has been a lot of diagnosis about a lot of the problems that the country faces— the problems that the country faces but what is the prescription that the labour party— prescription that the labour party would offer under a labour— party would offer under a labour government led by keir starmer? _ labour government led by keir starmer? and i think that work has to— starmer? and i think that work has to happen with some speed. there _ has to happen with some speed. there is— has to happen with some speed. there is a — has to happen with some speed. there is a strong argument, of course — there is a strong argument, of course you _ there is a strong argument, of course you don't set out a manifesto now, especially around _ manifesto now, especially around issues like tax. but people _ around issues like tax. but people are wanting to see a bit more _ people are wanting to see a bit more definition than the labour party _ more definition than the labour party the _ more definition than the labour party. the labour party did pretty— party. the labour party did pretty well recently on the windfall tax, that was an idea they— windfall tax, that was an idea they pushed very, very hard and ithink— they pushed very, very hard and i think they have to be a bit more — i think they have to be a bit more brave about coming out with— more brave about coming out with things that they would do as wett~ — with things that they would do as well. but i do think the strength of feeling against boris _ strength of feeling against borisjohnson and the boris johnson and the conservatives borisjohnson and the conservatives is running really high _ conservatives is running really high and — conservatives is running really high and the labour party members have often got huge hostitity — members have often got huge hostility towards the liberal democrats. there has been a lot of not _ democrats. there has been a lot of not forgiving the liberal democrats for the coalition years — democrats for the coalition years and for posterity, tuition _ years and for posterity, tuition fees, etc, etc, the bedroom _ tuition fees, etc, etc, the bedroom tax, but now it does feel— bedroom tax, but now it does feet tike — bedroom tax, but now it does feel like the liberal democrats will vote — feel like the liberal democrats will vote tactically and labour voters — will vote tactically and labour voters are prepared to vote tactically and that does put an interesting, different complexion on how the electoral mark— complexion on how the electoral mark might work at a general election— mark might work at a general election and it's also interesting that brexit is not such— interesting that brexit is not such a — interesting that brexit is not such a hot issue anymore in some — such a hot issue anymore in some of— such a hot issue anymore in some of these seats and that is going _ some of these seats and that is going to — some of these seats and that is going to be interesting to see because — going to be interesting to see because the coalition that the conservatives built was very heavily _ conservatives built was very heavily based on brexit. ayesha, thank you. we had a call to the candidates to come to the platform in wakefield so i think we can expect a declaration pretty soon there. mo, declaration pretty soon there. m0, in the interim, and i may cut you short if we have to, but what will hurt most, to lose a 2a,000 majority or to see one of those red bricks backin see one of those red bricks back in the wall up in the north? what is going to hurt most? i north? what is going to hurt most? ~ . , north? what is going to hurt most? ,, . , ., most? i think that they are both going _ most? i think that they are both going to _ most? i think that they are both going to be _ most? i think that they are both going to be hurtful. most? i think that they are | both going to be hurtful but most? i think that they are l both going to be hurtful but i think using such a big majority in a very safe and long established conservative seat will be very damaging —— losing. because the red wall, wakefield has been a labour seat for about 90 years or so and when the conservatives wanted, there was the brexit context, the corbyn factor as well, the prime minister spoke about lending him people's votes and paying them at some point so while they will be damaging and politically with the new mps that we now have on the new mps that we now have on the conservative side, other red wall seats, will be very worried about what their fate will be, i think the more established seats going is going to be more damaging in the long—term. going to be more damaging in the long-term.— going to be more damaging in the long-term. mo, good timing, the long-term. mo, good timing, the candidates _ the long-term. mo, good timing, the candidates are _ the long-term. mo, good timing, the candidates are all— the long-term. mo, good timing, the candidates are all taking - the candidates are all taking their positions as you can see in their various garb up on the platform and we can listen to the return office.— the return office. ladies and gentlemen- _ the return office. ladies and gentlemen. i— the return office. ladies and gentlemen. i in _ the return office. ladies and gentlemen. i in automatic . gentlemen. i in automatic active returning officer at the election of the member of parliament for the wakefield constituency, held on thursday the 23rd ofjune, 2022, do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate in the election is as follows. i'm at the dean, the conservative party candidate, from 8241 —— nadeem ahmed?. candidate, from 8241 -- nadeem ahmed?. �* ~ ,, candidate, from 8241 -- nadeem ahmed?._ akef - candidate, from 8241 -- nadeem| ahmed? ._ akef akbar, ahmed?. applause. akef akbar, independent. _ ahmed?. applause. akef akbar, independent, 2090. _ ahmed?. applause. akef akbar, independent, 2090. applause. | independent, 2090. applause. paul bickerdike, _ independent, 2090. applause. paul bickerdike, christian - paul bickerdike, christian people's appliance, 144. == people's appliance, 144. -- alliance- — people's appliance, 144. —— alliance. applause.. people's appliance, 144. -- l alliance. applause.. michael dodgson. _ alliance. applause.. michael dodgson, known _ alliance. applause.. michael dodgson, known as _ alliance. applause.. michael dodgson, known as mick, - alliance. applause.. michael- dodgson, known as mick, freedom alliance real people, real alternative, 187. applause. graham nichols, _ alternative, 187. applause. graham nichols, commonlyl alternative, 187. applause. - graham nichols, commonly known as sir archewell stanton l eaton, the official monster raving loony party, 171. applause.— raving loony party, 171. applause. jayda fransen, independent, _ applause. jayda fransen, independent, 23. - applause. jayda fransen, i independent, 23. applause. jordanjames_ jordan james gaskell, uk independence jordanjames gaskell, uk independence party, ukip, 124. applause. independence party, ukip, 124. applause— independence party, ukip, 124. applause. david john rowntree jocumsen, yorkshire _ applause. david john rowntree jocumsen, yorkshire party, - jocumsen, yorkshire party, 1182. , r , jocumsen, yorkshire party, 1182. m m r ,, jocumsen, yorkshire party, 1182. h 1182. cheering and applause. -- howatson. cheering _ 1182. cheering and applause. -- howatson. cheering and - howatson. cheering and applause. es —— herdson. therese hirst, english democrats putting england first, 135. democrats putting england first, 135-— first, 135. applause. christopher _ first, 135. applause. christopher richard i first, 135. applause. - christopher richard jones, christopher richard jones, northern independence party, nationalise energy companies, 84. nationalise energy companies, 84-_ simon - nationalise energy companies, 84._ simon robertl 84. applause. simon robert li . ht 84. applause. simon robert light wood. — 84. applause. simon robert light wood, labour— 84. applause. simon robert light wood, labour party, - light wood, labour party, 13,166. , �* , light wood, labour party, 13,166. m m �* ,, 13,166. cheering and applause. " lightwood- — ladies and gentlemen, if i could finish the declaration, please. needle, jamie lucas, liberal democrats, 508. applause.— liberal democrats, 508. applause. ., , ., , applause. roush athleisure feo blue, 587. simon _ applause. roush athleisure feo blue, 587. simon ashley, - blue, 587. simon ashley, britain first notary immigration, 311. britain first notary immiiration, 311. , ~ , immigration, 311. cheering and applause- _ immigration, 311. cheering and applause. christopher- immigration, 311. cheering and applause. christopher michael. applause. christopher michael walsh, applause. christopher michael walsh. known _ applause. christopher michael walsh, known as _ applause. christopher michael walsh, known as chris, - applause. christopher michael i walsh, known as chris, reformed uk, 513. , �* , �* �* ,, uk, 513. cheering and applause. the number_ uk, 513. cheering and applause. the number of— uk, 513. cheering and applause. the number of ballot _ uk, 513. cheering and applause. the number of ballot papers - the number of ballot papers rejected is as follows, one for want of an official mark. the returning — want of an official mark. the returning officer _ want of an official mark. the returning officer spelling out very clearly a victory for the labour party, 13,166, over the conservative candidate 8241, lewis is he doing the arithmetic and the scale to the swing. even i can tell you it is significant!— is significant! yeah, it is, it is significant! yeah, it is, it is a majority _ is significant! yeah, it is, it is a majority of _ is significant! yeah, it is, it is a majority of 4925, - is significant! yeah, it is, it is a majority of 4925, a - is a majority of 4925, a significant reversal, the conservatives had a majority of the general election and obviously the turnout was higher so the numbers are bigger. about three or 4000 at the last election, now basically entirely reversed so the labour vote up to 8.1%, the conservative by 17 percentage points and it's the first, it's a significant moment, the first by—election gain from the conservatives to labour since 2012, and it is the 38th target seat on their list. labour sources are telling me before we came on air that that is a bigger swing they think it will be bigger than they need at the general election but i will calculate that in moment but on the top of my head, bigger than 10% so that will be more than they need in order to get a majority of one at the next general election. ..tireless efforts, general election. ..tireless efforts. we _ general election. ..tireless efforts, we have _ general election. ..tireless efforts, we have turned - general election. ..tireless| efforts, we have turned the page — efforts, we have turned the page on— efforts, we have turned the page on tory neglect and delivered a fresh start for wakefield. thank you to the returning officer, elections staff — returning officer, elections staff and the police for the smooth _ staff and the police for the smooth running of the selection and count _ smooth running of the selection and count. i know it is a lot of work_ and count. i know it is a lot of work that often goes unmentioned. so thank you for your— unmentioned. so thank you for your endless professionalism and commitment to the democratic process. i'd also like — democratic process. i'd also like to— democratic process. i'd also like to take this opportunity to thank— like to take this opportunity to thank my agent and my campaign team. i cannot express in words _ campaign team. i cannot express in wordsjust how campaign team. i cannot express in words just how much campaign team. i cannot express in wordsjust how much i appreciate the countless hours and sacrifices you have made to ensure — and sacrifices you have made to ensure we — and sacrifices you have made to ensure we turn wakefield read again — ensure we turn wakefield read a . ain. , ensure we turn wakefield read aiain. , ~ , ~ ~ ,, again. cheering and applause. but above all. — again. cheering and applause. but above all, i'd _ again. cheering and applause. but above all, i'd like _ again. cheering and applause. but above all, i'd like to - but above all, i'd like to thank the people of wakefield who have put their trust in me to be their mp.— to be their mp. i've made promises _ to be their mp. i've made promises to _ to be their mp. i've made promises to you - to be their mp. i've made promises to you that - to be their mp. i've made promises to you that i - to be their mp. i've made| promises to you that i will keep as a member of parliament. and i cannot wait to get started. i will be a voice in westminster and challenge this government to get a better deal for wakefield. tonight, the people of wakefield have spoken on behalf of the british people. they have said unreservedly borisjohnson, unreservedly boris johnson, your contempt for this unreservedly borisjohnson, your contempt for this country is no longer... your contempt for this country is no longer. . .— your contempt for this country is no longer... welcome to our viewers on _ is no longer... welcome to our viewers on pbs _ is no longer... welcome to our viewers on pbs and, _ is no longer... welcome to our viewers on pbs and, indeed, i viewers on pbs and, indeed, around the world on bbc world news as we bring you special coverage of two key by—elections, the first one of which in wakefield hasjust been declared, one by labour, and this is the winning candidate, simon lightwood. it is not acceptable that people leave emergency every month and not treated because of record waiting times and it is not acceptable that convictions for crimes like robbery have fallen by almost half in the past five years. people in wakefield and around the country are sick of the deceit and dishonesty of this government. these

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