A reality. Jessica washington out of 0 hong kong. Ah. This is just to get out of now at the top stories, the u. K. The new finance minister has presented his economic plan to members of parliament. It includes reversing nearly all of his predecessors proposals. The government you turn announced by jeremy hunt, follows the resignation of his predecessor last week. Andrew simmons has moved from london. If this really was on the stair a t announcement, not what ms. Truss was pushing for, which was a whole growth of the economy plan extra spending tax cups accused by her. Her opposition in when she was on the leadership challenge, accused of fair retail economics. Well, now its a nightmare playing out because her situation is absolutely dangerous in the extreme. She was in the house of commons, it has to be said. She was sitting beside the chancellor as he Read Everything out on her fixed face, told a 1000000 stories she looked very, very disturbed. Indeed, at least 4 people have been killed and 16 injured in trying strikes on ukraines capital official sake. He was struck several times in an Early Morning attacked by Russian Forces using drones. The open government says it will seize control of airports and other Critical Infrastructure in a northern te grey region. The african unions called for an immediate cease fire after an escalation and violence. Swedens parliament has back center, right . Moderate party lead to old kristen as the new prime minister, 3 party coalition, the chosen includes the far right anti immigration suite and democrats. Party rallies have been held in garza to support palestinian present prisoners on Hunger Strike in israeli jails. The protest coincides with the 11th anniversary of a prison, a swap known as the shalley swap. Thats when israel released more than 1000 inmates in exchange for israeli soldier, shelly, thousands of women and girls in western india. How protests against Child Marriage became campaign to end early marriages was lost by no peace. Lloyd kayla. Sh for the art he does all the headlines were back with more after counting the cost. News, news, news, news, news, news hello and hasnt seeka. This is counting the cost on as a data. Your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week. It was seen as a slap in the face to president biden. Opec plus is moved to cut oil output has grown angry criticism from washington. Why did they do it, and how will us respond . Also this week, the worlds financial firefighter, a few people like its harsh lending conditions. We look at the role of the International Monetary fund in his gloomy Economic Times is losing relevance. And while some african countries arent ready yet to let go of fossil fuels, of those are turning to Green Energy Sources to lower that carbon footprint. Ah, of a month President Joe Biden has lobbied saudi arabia and the other Oil Producing countries to help ease Energy Prices by pumping more oil into the market. But in a major policy reversal opec plus that includes russia, decided to cut output by 2000000. 00 barrels a day in november. The u. S. Is calling the decision short sighted. It is accused the kingdom of siding with moscow, which relies heavily on its oil revenues. Opec plus says the move is purely economic, a response to uncertainty about future demand for oil. Our priority now is stabilizing market. Now, we could be accused of wanting to influence market in negative way. Everybodys broke, if well and others. Well see how we conduct our sales in the months to come. A biden has vowed what he calls, consequences, full saudi arabia over the opec plus decision to slash output. It is the biggest reduction by the group since the height of the pandemic in 2020. But actual costs are likely to be smaller because many opec members arent meeting their targets. The price of a ballad brent crude jumped to more than 93. 00 after the announcement last week. It was on a downward trend in late september from highs of about 130. 00. The u. S. Has pledged to release 10000000. 00 barrels from its stop piles next month in an attempt to Keep Oil Prices down. And the u. S. Is considering steps to reduce opecs control over Energy Prices include the know or producing and exporting cartels or no peck built. Its meant to protect American Consumers and businesses from engineered oil spikes. Its been debated for more than 2 decades in a Senate Judiciary committee passed it in may, but in the past the full senate and house and signed by the president to become law. The bill would enable us to revoke the sovereign immunity, which protects ok. Plus members and their National Oil Companies from losses. The u. S. Attorney general would have the option to sue the oil Cartel Members in federal court. So to discuss all of this, im joined now from new york by antwan, how former chief oil analyst at the International Energy agency. And currently an Adjunct Senior Research scholar at the center on Global Energy policy at columbia university. And the co founder and chief or analyst at k ross. Good to have you with us. So im opec, and now the own thank plus alliance has never cut out. Put this much in this quickly. Why now it might seem surprising. Its a much more proactive cast than weve seen in the past. If you look at her satellites or imaging over inventories today, theres no sign of overhang. Theres no, all the supplies there. Oh, stuck have been fairly flat for the last few weeks. But i think this concerns that they are going to increase. Theres concerns about the grooming we session. And the fact that starts up in flood might be seen as a warning signal because normally stocks globally tend to decrease in september in october. So its, its somewhat surprising its, its unusual for opec to cat supply in the, in the face of a recession. But typically the language is more that the opec is willing to take a price cut to have the economy. But its understanding, and i think most people who are watching balance is supplied to my balances. Were expecting a fairly significant cut, obviously is taken the u. S. Government by supplies. Opec past says its trying to get ahead of the curve. What are there any indications of a slumping demand and how soon could that happen . Theres clearly severe impacts from the, the rally in that for gas prices and the, and the constraints on the gas market. If you look at industrial, the activity in europe, in germany and other countries in europe, theres been a very sharp decline in activity on see man cadence on most didnt is on the consumer side. On the other side, specifically, the impact is less flagrant. Like now theres been a bit of a lack of a boost in demand in the summer. For example, the summer driving demand in the us in europe with a weak airline demand is due to very, very, or diminished. And they all concerns looking forward. So they are, they are certain the expectations of a decline. Its a hasnt really materialized in the oil market as much as in other aspects of the energy spectrum. But theres concerns about future contraction. Thats for sure. But the cuts are, are likely to be less than 2000000. 00 barrels, because many countries are meeting output targets. So how effective is this rock reduction going to be on prices then . Yeah, nobody expects 2000000. 00 obviously in it is to me on paper. In fact, case is going to be less than 1000000. 00 expectations very from 700. 00 to 8900000. 00. But that, thats going to be less than the this. The shock at the shock value, the sticker shock of the 2000000. 00 is not going to be mass in practice. And if you look at the market reaction, the price has not increased so much. So i think the market participants, ive had a comfortable that the, the market can take these kind of get an, a u. S. Is accusing saudi arabia siding with russia in, in making this decision. So how much would these cuts then benefit moscow . Well, any cat, this is beneficial to moscow because theres a reduction in export. So even if theres no reduction in exports to price increase, we obviously have moscow maintain export revenue and finance. Its worth it. So theres obviously concerns there. And the russian economy has got the resilience 2 sections that hasnt been cut ups in the, in the, in the russian economy. But the size of fiction, of tension. And i think over time mosque was clearly going to feel the impact of sanctions and of the impact of its worth it on his own budget. And the usaa saying that it could release oil from its National Stockpiles as appropriate. It says, but how much could they release and how much of a difference is that going to make them prices where the u. S. S. P r is to very large, is the last us in the world, and theres a significant for drawing capacity in the u. S, the u. S. Has been drawing on its on this reserves and has accelerated the pace of the stocking of the s p r since march. I think that was a great decision, mr. The cant the market when the market was concerned about in the bus stop in the, in the question supply with that actually was, did not happen. And probably the u. S. Should that stuff should be more as i in adjusting in the pace of or but the stocking, of course, from the earlier on. Now the ar cut is completely offset by the opec production cut. The s p r really says its completely offset the us, obviously it has the option of increasing the base of the stocking. I dont think it would be necessarily a wise idea. It would deplete the reserve and it would not really serve any purpose. Not bring any benefit right now, but its an option if the market gets too tight and theres no peck bill, the so called no peck bill thats being considered in the, in the us right now. Could that, could that become a law . And i mean what, what difference will it make, i mean, is, is it going to affect opecs dominance on the, the Energy Prices isnt. Theres clearly an apple in washington, a sense of her to sense of pain or an eagerness to examine what kind of policy to what kind of measures could be taken to express displeasure. And no back is, it is one of those tools its, its a bit ironic because it just 2 years ago, everybody in the u. S. Was begging opec to catch apply from the president to, to producers, to local authorities. And was willing to participate in the supply in the supply cuts at the height of the could be panoramic. So i dont think based on this recent experience that the, that the legislation has any legs, but it certainly can be a nuisance, can be a distraction. And can, can, in, can be an irritant in the relationship, and theres a strong likelihood that this is going to be a sustained interest in reviving this piece of the decision. How, what other options does the us have, if any, at this point to, to get an oil prices down where to get all places done, it doesnt need to really bring them down in a big way that could suddenly increase the be all the good. Theres no the industry could pick up the pace of fucking in the shade touch and there could be an effort to, to bring supply from areas that have been restricted like venezuela, like you on. And i think its no coincidence that we have some interest in going to leave the, the foot on the pedal. Her been, its when in sections the iranian negotiations are continuing and there are some strong interests on the market sense in bringing them to fruition. All right, anton house. Good to get your analysis, thanking me, but i, the International Monetary fund is often called the lender of last resort. Countries look to it for Financial Assistance in times of crisis. It was created more than 7 decades ago to promote economic stability. After world war 2, but the world has changed a great deal since then. And now the pandemic as well as the war in ukraine are threatening Economic Conditions around the world. Its leading many people to question the i m. S. Relevance in 2022. Of critics have taken aim at its demand for reforms and austerity in exchange for bailout loans for many countries at risk of defaulting on that that are still seeking financial help from the i. M. F. Pakistan has political turmoil and devastating floods to deal with. They just secured a loan of around 1000000000. 00, sri lanka is close to finalizing almost 3000000000. 00, while egypt is also in talks for a new loan. And lending programs are expected to increase as the i m. F paints, a gloomy outlook for the global economy. The institution has cut Global Growth for cost the next year to 2. 7 percent, and warns the worst is yet to come. In many blames rushes invasion of ukraine. The cost of living crisis and chinas economic slowed down for the downturn. The im f predicts, the worlds output will shrink by 4 trillion dollars between now and 2026. That is almost the size of the german economy. More than a 100 nations requested bailouts from the i m f. More than 2 years ago. At the height of the cobra. 1900 health crisis. And the institution has around a 140000000000. 00 in our standing loans to 44. 00 member countries. Argentina is the biggest data with a total outstanding amount of more than 42000000000. 00, followed by egypt that around 17000000000. 00. The m. S. S. 60 percent of low Income Countries are now at high risk already in debt distress, and a growing number of middle Income Countries are suffering from high debt service. Birds. The u. N. Estimates 54 countries. Thats more than half the worlds poorest people need immediate debt relief to avoid extreme poverty. For washington d. C. Im joined now by scott morris, senior fellow at the center for global development. Good to have you were to scott. So 1st off we lanka pockets on are among the did the countries facing debt distress. What is that . What has led us to this point with them . Well, i think you have a very difficult combination of factors for both countries and some of them, hong grown in terms of their own policy decisions, frankly, entry long because case really, you know, really deep problems in governance to some degree with pakistan as well. But frankly, also Global Forces that are in play right now that are exacerbating the situation. Rising Interest Rates, the ongoing effects of the pandemic. So it really is this confluence of forces that are, that are hitting both countries very hard and all the i m f loans helping countries like this or do they make things worse . Well, you know, to some degree, i think the mouth gets a Bad Reputation in part because it does show up at times when countries are pe seem there, there were situations in terms of crisis. But on the other hand, i think there is a long history of the, im not always getting things right in terms of the judgment they make. And i think you know this, this can happen in a couple of different ways. One, i think there have been periods where the iron has and those conditions on their loans that are more harms and help too much austerity in some situations too much reach into the Decision Making of the government across a wide range of issues. There are also times, frankly, when the, i enough, its too easy and here i think that applies more to the position of other creditors to these countries where the i and that allows the creditors, you know, too much position in the bargaining. Because oftentimes with these countries need, certainly if we look at re longer right now, their creditors are going to have to take care cut. Theyre gonna have to write down some of those that. And the in the plays an Important Role in helping navigate that situation. Making sure that everyone is bearing a fair share of the cost of working out of these crises. So do you see the i am if adapting its approach at all to the current circumstances. So we look back to 2020 and the the panoramic as a trigger for a lot of economic problems in the world. You know, the, i really did step up, they, they, they opened their, their lending windows. They did it quickly with low conditionality. So we saw a lot of money flowing out of the institution, but frankly, since that time we, we havent seen that kind of stands from the Foreign Countries have, has not been in borrowing. So it remains be seen. I think we, you know, these 2 countries that you named are probably on the front angel frontage of what will be a growing number of countries in crisis. And it really will be important to see how the response will they provide quicker access to their money. While they set aside traditional conditionality to ensure that countries have the financing that they need to, to, to whether thats crisis. Now there are a number of countries in the world that are facing some level of debt distress. Do you think the i m f is doing enough to help the global south . I think to their credit, you know, theyre showing signs of preparing. So theyre creating new, new lending windows. Some focused on Food Security. Distress right now, which is is, is certainly laudable. Theyve created a new Resilience Trust fund, so all these trust funds theyve been spending time setting up, but we havent seen them perform yet. And these are, they are particularly targeted low Income Countries because if they are tapped, they offer much easier terms. Financial terms, very low Interest Rates, but we just dont, we havent seen yet large volumes of fund flowing out of these facilities. And i, i think the real test will be one of scale. As you say, we are likely to see significantly a larger number of countries, many of them among the poorest countries in the world. And you know, for, for a large number of these countries, you know, this truly is a shock that is not of their own making. Whether its the Food Security issues associated with the war and ukraine. Ongoing issues of the pandemic. None of these things were problems created by these countries or their governments. So, you know, the issue around conditionality is, is, is a key one here. This is not, not necessarily the moment to try to leverage policy reforms in these governance when theyre trying to deal with prices that were not of their own making. And of course, each country has its own monetary policies dealing with its own set of challenges. But do you think the i m f is doing enough to promote the stability of the, of the International Monetary system as a whole . Yeah, well, this is a key question right now. And this has more to do with the relationship with its rich country members. So obviously theres a lot of attention on the Federal Reserve here in the u. S. And their actions, which are guided by domestic requirements and domestic law. But clearly there are ramifications and significant negative ramifications for other countries in the world, in terms of the Interest Rate of facts. So what we would like to see, what we want to see is, is coordination between the u. S, between european governments and the im out on ways in which they can deal with this Collateral Damage for other countries. And weve seen that impacts prices on the Federal Reserve has opened swap lines with other Central Banks in the world. I think, you know, that is in coordination with the i and that, and im wondering china today we, weve seen them at least put on the offer of these kinds of swap line from their central bank. Its not clear yet if the terms of that offer are flexible enough for countries to make use of them, sri lanka was one case where there was a swap line open with china. But the, you know, the president ial standards of that arrangement were too, too rigid in a way that trail longer could not make use of it before the default. Scott morris could to get your perspective. Thank you. My pleasure. Now the race to green energy is going to fast for some oil rich developing nations. Nigeria is africas biggest exporter of oil, and it isnt ready to let go. Its huge reserves that have fueled its consumption and Economic Growth for more than half a century. Just as many dream reports from port hawk or this off shall rig pumps, oil and gas off the coast of nigeria. For more than 60 years, petroleum has been the pillar of its economy. And for men, here, life without oil, is simply unimaginable. We know for sure that even by 2050 i wasnt where it was till account for my 58 percent of energy and production into will not be that wasnt well is not going to go away, but to going to become better too much martina enough . Well, and that is really our focus. Petroleum contributes more than half of nigeria budget, and more than 90 percent of its forwarding. Its jeff jennings, experts say ditching, it could devastate the economy. The World Bank Says now juris dependence on oil is greater than that of many other major producers. More than half of africa, 1300000000 people have no access to power here in the area. The figure is more than 45 percent of vicious. Yes. And they want to increase access to electricity, especially by for the countries. Oil and gas is also pretty encourage growth. Industry experts say africas oil will still find a ready market on the continent. Even if the rest of the world shut its doors. Africa needs energy. We are not selling energy outside because we dont need it. We are selling energy also because we are miss, we have misplaced priorities. Nigeria wants to be seen as playing its bought in reducing global warming. 2 years ago, the government declared print to 20. 00 to 2030 as a decayed of gas, a 10 year period to shift focus from oil, and more to natural gas as a cleaner transition fuel. But that doesnt mean the country will abandon its 37000000000 barrels of crude oil reserves. Altogether a kenya is making major changes to its Energy Supply system. The country is now harvesting geothermal, steam. Consultants on the project site will cut Greenhouse Gas emissions, but also lift millions of people out of poverty. Katherine sawyer reports from the all cardiac power plants. In nova blasts of immense heat dot dozens of vents in the great rift valley. The steam is so hot, you can boil an egg in it to appreciate the power of this heat. There is no, were better to look the north west of kenyas capital nairobi. This energy is coming from the us and its essentially limitless. Anom warranty is exploring for new geothermal drill sites for the countries, Electricity Generating company. It is producing 962. 00 megawatts of power, but could do a great deal more, santi, se harnessing Geothermal Power for electricity is simple. Their steam from the ground is on, if i know of him a steam lines and the steam lines and up in up our place and that steam, of course it is separated where the liquid face ice, they can inject a back into the ground. And the steam dries, steam is thick into a power plant and runs out by generating electricity. Kenya derives most of its energy from clean sources. It has some of the Worlds Largest geothermal wells and plants. It is also the largest producer of wind and Geothermal Energy on the continent. I think africa stands out now as a viable option to bring about the change so that africa will make the, the necessary contribution to green me the environment. And thats why you find Major Economies having an interest in chaos specifically and in africa basically to her in but the fact of what is happening elsewhere in frances careo key was recently connected to the greed through a Rural Electrification program, sat on them, one guy now we have light, we also have fewer cases of test at night, but there are still people in darkness. We need to light up the entire village. In most parts, people are now enjoying the benefits of renewable energy. Many kenyans are connected to the national green, while others have installed the wireless system. The government says it wants to ensure every home has electricity in the next 10 years. The idea is, and its school is not just to live top the country, but the whole continent. And that is our show for this week run by you can get in touch with us by tweeting me as has a speaker and do use the hash tag a speak and see when you do or drop an e mail, counting the cost as just the dot net is our address, as well for you online at edges, e n a dot com slash ctc. That will take you straight to our page, which has individual report links, an entire episode for you to catch up on that is it for this edition of counting . The cost hasnt speak from the whole team. Yes, thanks for joining us. The news on agitated is next the ah ah, ah ah, we understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the wow. So no matter what lucy, with the news and kind of bars that matter to you, ah
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